NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

GM Ryan Pace will not foreclose any method as a possible means for the Bears improving their QB situation.

Bears General Manager Ryan Pace is leaving no stone unturned in identifying his starting quarterback.

Pace wouldn’t rule out anything today, including Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky under center in 2021, acquiring a starting quarterback in a blockbuster trade, signing a quarterback in free agency or drafting a quarterback in the first round.

“Everything is on the table in regards to the quarterback situation. That includes players on our roster, players in free agency, trade, the draft or a combination of all of those,” Pace said. “We have a plan in place and now it’s about executing that plan.”

The Bears were one of the four teams identified by Russell Wilson‘s agent as a potential destination should the Seahawks trade him, and the Bears have also been reported to have interest in a blockbuster trade for Deshaun Watson. Those are the quarterbacks who would create real excitement in Chicago, but based on Pace’s comments today, the Bears’ starting quarterback could be just about anyone.

The first two sentences of his quote sound like there is, as of yet, no “plan.”  Then he says he is executing a plan.

MINNESOTA

TE KYLE RUDOLPH’s long run with the Vikings has come to an end.  Andrew Krammer of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

The Vikings released veteran tight end Kyle Rudolph on Tuesday by terminating his contract.

He was the team’s longest-tenured player.

The announcement was timed to an article Rudolph wrote for The Players Tribune. He tweeted (@KyleRudolph82), “Thank you Minnesota!! Although my time as a Viking has come to a close, my time as a MINNESOTAN is just getting started!”

Rudolph and the Vikings agreed to a four-year, $36 million contract extension in June 2019, but in 2020 the 10-year veteran was used primarily used as a blocker and finished with the fewest touchdowns of his career (1) and the fewest catches per game (2.3) since he was a rookie.

He was scheduled to count $9.45 million against the 2021 salary cap with no guaranteed money remaining on a deal through 2023. About $4.35 million would be in “dead” money, so the move saves the Vikings about $5 million in cap space.

Rudolph said after the season he wouldn’t entertain a restructure negotiation this time to return in a similar role. He had seven touchdowns in 2019, including the walk-off winner in New Orleans during the NFC wild-card playoff win, but his red-zone role also evaporated last season as the offense further pivoted to tight end Irv Smith Jr.

He was not made available to local reporters during the team’s final video conferences in January and had not participated in a news conference since before he sustained a Lisfranc injury in the Dec. 6 overtime win against Jacksonville. That injury ended his 98-game start streak and forced him to miss the final four games.

His 48 touchdowns are the most by a Vikings tight end; he had 453 receptions.

The team announced the release, which included statement from General Manager Rick Spielman and coach Mike Zimmer.

“From the moment we drafted Kyle as a young man out of Notre Dame in 2011, through his 10th season with the Vikings in 2020, he has been one of the premier tight ends in the NFL and most influential and positive leaders I’ve ever been around,” Spielman said in the release.

Said Zimmer: “Kyle has been a leader and mentor for us on and off the field from the first day I arrived in Minnesota.”

Spielman is set to have a news briefing on Wednesday.

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

The Saints may have DT MALCOLM BROWN on the block. Nick Shook of NFL.com:

With the start of the new league year a little over two weeks away, the Saints are starting to explore new avenues to find a way under the salary cap.

New Orleans has had trade conversations about potentially dealing defensive tackle Malcom Brown, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported. A trade involving Brown would save the Saints about $5 million in cap space, Rapoport added.

Brown is entering the final season of a three-year, $15 million deal, meaning his acquisition would essentially amount to a one-year rental with a chance to retain him beyond it if a trade suitor so chooses. Brown has appeared in 29 games with the Saints in his first two seasons in New Orleans after making the move from New England to Louisiana, recording 61 tackles (nine for loss), three sacks and one fumble recovery.

New Orleans is currently in the worst cap situation in the entire NFL. According to Over The Cap, the Saints are $69.5 million over a projected cap of $180.5 million, and although the league has stated its cap will be $180 million at minimum, the Saints clearly have a lot of work to do to get under the cap.

Trading Brown would free up a relatively small portion of that total, but would also create another hole at a position that is already likely to be without Sheldon Rankins in 2021, as he’s headed to free agency in a couple of weeks. Such moves might end up being necessary, though, for the Saints to be able to qualify financially for 2021. More changes are undoubtedly coming to New Orleans, with or without a move involving Brown.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

The Athletic gathers some experts to weigh in on various matters around the signing of EDGE J.J. WATT:

Three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt is signing with the Arizona Cardinals on a two-year, $31 million deal with $23 million guaranteed. Watt and the Texans mutually agreed to part ways last month after Watt spent 10 seasons in Houston.

How much does his addition help the Cardinals? How much does his decision hurt other teams? And where does Arizona now sit in the strong NFC West?

The Athletic’s Lindsay Jones, Amy Trask, Aaron Reiss and Doug Haller debate these questions and more from a signing that could have big implications in the 2021 NFL season and beyond.

Why did Watt choose the Cardinals?

Jones: You can’t look at the money on Watt’s two-year deal and believe it isn’t a factor, but the Cardinals must have made an intriguing football pitch, too. In Arizona, Watt will be paired with edge rusher Chandler Jones, who, when healthy, is one of the NFL’s most dominant pass rushers, and will join a defense that has some intriguing playmakers, such as safety Budda Baker and second-year linebacker Isaiah Simmons. Could Watt’s arrival influence cornerback Patrick Peterson, a pending free agent, to re-sign in Arizona?

Trask: On a funny note (perhaps “funny not funny” to Texans fans), Deandre Hopkins is clearly a terrific recruiter.

On a more serious note, unless Watt tells us why he chose Arizona, we can, of course, only speculate as to the reasons for his decision. My speculation includes the fact that Arizona demonstrated a strong pass rush in 2020 (tied for fourth in the league with 48 sacks) and as such, Watt should not be double-teamed by opposing offenses. Were he to go to a team with a poor pass rush, it is more likely he would be double-teamed. I don’t know if that factored into his analysis or decision, but I know it would were I in his position or were I advising him.

Reiss: Watt said he wanted to finish his career chasing a Super Bowl. Perhaps he sees something in the Cardinals that most of us don’t. Arizona, which went 8-8 last season, isn’t rebuilding like the Texans, but it also isn’t an obvious championship contender. Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph was the Texans’ defensive backs coach during the first three years of Watt’s career, and evidently, the five-time All-Pro liked him enough to want to work with him again. I’m guessing Hopkins, his former Texans teammate, made a strong sales pitch, too.

Haller: Veterans like Watt don’t sign with organizations unless they think they can win. The Cardinals last season did not make the playoffs, but they’re headed in the right direction. Under second-year coach Kliff Kingsbury, they made a three-win leap, and although they fizzled in the final weeks, they’re not far from NFC contention. Watt isn’t the missing piece, but he’s a valuable one.

What are the Cardinals getting in Watt, who will be 32 when the season starts?

Reiss: Watt is a high-risk, high-reward signing. He’s played all 16 games just twice in the past five years, and in the others, he failed to play in more than eight games. When healthy, though, Watt can still be a game-wrecker. Don’t be fooled by his 2020 stats (five sacks, 17 QB hits), which were pedestrian by his standards. Watt was playing on one of the league’s worst defenses, with little talent surrounding him. As a result, he was the NFL’s most double-teamed edge rusher. He should benefit from lining up opposite Jones, a fellow All-Pro. I wouldn’t be surprised if Watt has another 10-plus-sack season — assuming he can stay healthy.

Jones: It would be unrealistic to expect peak Watt, but I think we should expect significant production from a motivated player, especially when he doesn’t have to be his team’s primary pass rusher. If he’s able to stay healthy, I think it would be fair to expect Watt’s sack numbers to climb, maybe into the low teens?

Trask: The difficulty in answering this is projecting Watt’s health. If healthy, he still can be a dominant player, particularly playing for a team on which he shouldn’t be double-teamed by opposing offenses. That said, he’s missed 32 games over the past five seasons, and that makes it hard to project how healthy he will stay over the course of a season.

Haller: His sack numbers and awards (three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year!) will get the most attention, but Arizona also is getting a great locker-room and community presence. Larry Fitzgerald’s future is discussed nearly every day here on local sports talk radio. Fitzgerald has a bond with the Valley of the Sun that won’t be replaced, but someone like Watt could make Fitzgerald’s retirement — should he go in that direction — sting a little less.

Yes or no: With Watt, the Cardinals now are favorites to win the NFC West?

Haller: Not yet. While pairing a healthy Watts with a healthy Jones is fascinating, the Cardinals still have a lot to sort out. Even if they re-sign Peterson, they need immediate help at corner. Kyler Murray might be a future star, but he’s not there yet. Arizona also needs a solid No. 2 receiver behind Hopkins.

Jones: No. When the 2020 season started, I thought the NFC West was the most difficult division to pick, and adding Watt in 2021 only makes it more so. I’m not sure if he’s the one player who can take the Cardinals from 8-8 to 11-5, but I like his chances to help the Cardinals win the type of weird, close games that division always produces.

Trask: Whoa there, let’s slow our roll on this one. I’m being a bit silly again because, of course, everyone can roll as fast as they wish. That said, I am not yet ready to declare anything close to a favorite as I think the division is too strong as a whole to make that prediction. I think this is an intriguing division and can’t wait to watch this unfold.

Reiss: For now, I like the Rams the most, but it’ll be a tight division. It all will come down to the quarterback situations for every team. Will Matthew Stafford prove worth the gamble for the Rams? Can San Francisco upgrade from Jimmy Garoppolo? Do the Seahawks rectify things with Russell Wilson? And what sort of jump can Murray make in Year 3?

Which team is hurt the most by Watt’s decision?

Jones: From a football perspective, I wanted to see Watt end up in Buffalo. So I think it hurts rising AFC teams like the Bills and Browns. But I also think this hurts the Seahawks, who could have (1) used a player like Watt and (2) still face major questions about how to protect Wilson (most notably, those questions are coming from Wilson himself).

Trask: If Watt remains healthy, he will make Arizona stronger, and this is to the detriment of the other teams in the NFC West.

Reiss: The Seahawks. Other teams linked to Watt — Buffalo, Cleveland, Green Bay — will be contenders without him. Seattle’s offensive line has been a point of tension between Wilson and the team, and now it’ll be tested in a major way by the combo of Watt and Jones.

Is $23 million guaranteed too much?

Trask: My experience in the league and my training as a lawyer are such that I am loath to weigh in on contractual terms unless and until I see the contract in question. There are many reasons for my reluctance to do so, one of which is that even when contracts include injury guarantees, prior injuries and conditions stemming from or related thereto are excluded. I would imagine that even if Watt’s contract includes guarantees for skill and injury, those exclusions (carve-outs) exist. If they do not, his team did a tremendous job negotiating this deal for him.

Jones: If he helps turn the Cardinals into the NFC West champions, no. But my initial reaction in our internal Slack channel (as my colleagues here can confirm) was “that’s a lot of money,” both the guaranteed amount and the average salary. It might affect the Cardinals’ ability to bring back other free agents, such as Peterson and outside linebacker Haason Reddick.

Reiss: It’s a richer deal than I anticipated for Watt, given his age and injury history, but it’s the sort of bold move teams with quarterbacks on rookie contracts should make.

AFC NORTH

PITTSBURGH

RB JAMES CONNER seems to have met the end of the line in Pittsburgh.  Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com with that nugget in this look at Pittsburgh’s offensive future:

Here’s what to expect from the Steelers when the NFL offseason hits high gear with the start of free agency on March 17:

QUARTERBACK

Under contract: Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins Jr.

UFA: Josh Dobbs

Game plan: The Steelers expect to have Roethlisberger back, even though they still have to work with him to lower his $41.2 million cap hit. Beyond that, the Steelers have Rudolph and Haskins under contract and need to further develop and evaluate both players to determine if they’re viable options to succeed Roethlisberger. Team president Art Rooney II and general manager Kevin Colbert have also suggested the team is looking to add an additional quarterback to the room, either through free agency or the draft.

RUNNING BACK

Under contract: Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels, Anthony McFarland, Derek Watt

UFA: Conner

Game plan: The Steelers have to address the running back position in the draft. Though a fan favorite for his ties to the community and battle with cancer, Conner is unlikely to be re-signed and the Steelers need a new No. 1 back. Snell struggled to consistently fill that role when Conner was injured and neither McFarland nor Samuels have the makeup of a No. 1. The Steelers will be in the market to add a new face, likely through an early-round pick in the draft.

WIDE RECEIVER

Under contract: James Washington, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson

UFA: Smith-Schuster

Game plan: With what he’ll command on the open market and the Steelers’ cap troubles, Smith-Schuster is likely gone, leaving the Steelers with a need to fill the slot position. Restricted free agent Ray-Ray McCloud is an option, as is Johnson, but that’s the most glaring need at the position to be filled either through the draft or an inexpensive free agent.

TIGHT END

Under contract: Eric Ebron, Zach Gentry, Kevin Rader

UFA: None

Game plan: Vance McDonald retired, leaving Ebron as the most veteran member of the room. Gentry showed promise before his season-ending knee injury, but this room undoubtedly needs at least one more piece.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Under contract: David DeCastro, Chukwuma Okorafor, Kevin Dotson, J.C. Hassenauer, Aviante Collins, Anthony Coyle, John Leglue, Brandon Walton, Jarron Jones

UFA: Alejandro Villanueva, Matt Feiler, Zach Banner, Jerald Hawkins, Danny Isidora

Game plan: The offensive line is facing the biggest makeover going into the 2021 season thanks to the retirement of center Maurkice Pouncey and the likely departure of left tackle Villanueva in free agency. The Steelers likely will be able to retain Banner, who’s coming off an ACL tear, as an option at left tackle. He could also compete with Okorafor for the right tackle spot again with the backup becoming a versatile substitute. Regardless, the Steelers will have at least one new starter and potentially as many as three. Colbert said the draft class of tackles is deep, which is good news for a team that badly needs one.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

The Jaguars are likely to switch defensive schemes.  Michael DiRicco of ESPN.com:

New Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator Joe Cullen was pretty clear: The scheme he is implementing will be adaptable. The Jaguars can line up as a 4-3 defense on one snap and then give a 3-4 look on the next.

With offensive coordinators trying to create mismatches with motions and misdirection and formations, defenses can’t be rigid. Lining up with the same look in the front seven every snap just isn’t the best way to go any longer.

“We are still evaluating our current roster and I’ve been [in the NFL] for 14 years — eight years we were a 4-3 scheme, and six years we were a 3-4 scheme when we were multiple,” Cullen said. “It is all tailored to the personnel that you have, and in both schemes, you have the flexibility to do both.”

But if you had to pin down the Jaguars’ base look, it more than likely will be a 3-4 because that’s the best fit for their personnel.

The Jaguars have run a Cover 3 scheme out of a base 4-3 since former head coach Gus Bradley was hired in 2013: Three deep zones and four underneath zones and pressuring the quarterback with almost exclusively just the front four. It worked really well in 2017, when the Jaguars made a run to the AFC Championship game with a defense that led the NFL in pass defense and finished second in total defense, scoring defense, turnovers forced and sacks.

That unit had six Pro Bowlers on it, though: Defensive ends Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, defensive tackle Malik Jackson, linebacker Telvin Smith, and cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. The defense wasn’t nearly as good in 2018 despite having the same personnel and has floundered since. All six of those Pro Bowlers were gone by the start of the 2020 season.

The current personnel is more of a fit for a 3-4 than a 4-3. Defensive ends Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson dropped into coverage a lot in college at Kentucky and LSU, respectively, and neither has the build of the big end that set the edge against the run in the defense run by former coordinator Todd Wash. Allen is 6-foot-5 and 262 pounds and Chaisson 6-3, 254. Campbell was 6-8 and 300 pounds and former big ends with the Jaguars were Tyson Alualu (6-3, 304), Jared Odrick (6-5, 301), and Red Bryant (6-5, 326).

Allen and Chaisson are much better fits as outside linebackers in a 3-4, but Cullen said they will, at times, line up along the line of scrimmage to give the defense a different look.

“I have definitely evaluated those guys, not only coming out [of college], but obviously here,” Cullen said. “They could play in either scheme. Both of those guys are versatile, they are athletic. They can put their hand down, they can stand up. They can do a lot of different things, and I’m excited.”

But while that flexibility is valuable — the buzz word is “multiple” — a switch to a 3-4 makes sense especially when you consider that Cullen has spent the past five seasons as Baltimore’s defensive line coach under coordinators Dean Pees and Wink Martindale, both of whom ran a 3-4. In addition, the Jaguars’ new senior defensive assistant is Bob Sutton, who ran a 3-4 in six seasons as Kansas City’s defensive coordinator (2013-18).

And one more hint that the Jaguars’ base defense will lean toward a 3-4: They have an inside linebackers coach (Charlie Strong, who is also the assistant head coach) and an outside linebackers coach (Zachary Orr). There’s no need to have an inside linebackers coach just for starter Joe Schobert and backup Shaquille Quarterman.

“The way that ball has evolved now, whether it be on a professional level or the collegiate level, you have to be very multiple on defense,” Strong said. “Sometimes you can show three-down, sometimes you can show four-down, but it also goes back to the personnel. We’ve been evaluating our personnel here in the last few days that we’ve been in, so we know that we have some personnel here, but you always want to get more.

“It’s going to be conversations here in the next upcoming days where we go around to each position and each position coach has a chance to talk about his personnel and what his needs are. But you’re looking at defenses, we’re going to be very multiple.”

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots are scouting QBs expected to be gone when they pick, as they are currently scheduled to do, at #15.  Jeff Howe of The Athletic:

The New England Patriots are well into the process of trying to determine whether their next franchise quarterback is part of the 2021 NFL Draft class.

The Patriots have been heavily scouting the top five quarterbacks in the class, including some who would almost certainly require a trade up the board, according to several sources. That group includes Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, BYU’s Zach Wilson, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Alabama’s Mac Jones.

Some of this background work has included conversations with the quarterbacks’ college coaches. The Patriots were also in attendance last month for Lawrence’s throwing session, which was held before his left shoulder surgery, and met with Jones during the week of the Senior Bowl. They’re expected to continue to work on the class with each quarterback’s pro day later this month.

There are plenty of reasons for the Patriots to do their homework on these five prospects.

Competitive element

The Patriots aren’t kidding themselves. They know they aren’t getting Lawrence, who is considered a virtual lock to head to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the No. 1 pick.

The same may also be true for Wilson, who is a strong candidate to be selected by the New York Jets at No. 2. Even in the possibility the Jets trade the pick, they aren’t going to hook up the Patriots with their quarterback of the future. And if somehow Wilson falls to No. 3, the Miami Dolphins could set up a bidding war for the pick, and they also wouldn’t be in a rush to ship it over to the Patriots.

But there is value in scouting both players from a competitiveness standpoint. Wilson could very well wind up in the AFC East, and Lawrence could turn the Jaguars into an annual AFC contender if he is as good as expected. It may be worthwhile to learn what makes them tick.

Related, the Patriots’ pro personnel department will continue to scout these quarterbacks once they’re in the NFL. It helps to create the foundation for those scouting reports to analyze how they’re improving or regressing through the years.

However, this is a mere fraction of the reason to go all-in on this quarterback class. Far more importantly, the Patriots know they have to prioritize their own search.

Due diligence

There is some real urgency to find a long-term answer at quarterback, which is why the Patriots are also aggressively assessing the trade market.

And really, what else would they be doing right now?

The 2020 college football season was anything but normal, especially for Lance, a 20-year-old who only played one game due to widespread cancellations at the FCS level. BYU was among the many teams that didn’t allow scouts to attend practice under COVID-19 protocols, and the NFL canceled the scouting combine, which would have been taking place this week. Teams need to be as thorough as possible without their normal database of information.

Plus, the Patriots have to be ready for anything. The draft is still eight weeks away, and unpredictable circumstances pop up all the time – an injury while training, a medical situation, an off-field issue or maybe even a workout from a lower-profile prospect that reshapes the draft board.

If, for example, the Patriots ignored one or two of these prospects and one happens to tumble to them at No. 15, they wouldn’t be properly equipped to make the right decision with their draft pick.

While mock drafts are fun, they’re about as accurate as a 10-day weather forecast. Just because Lance and Fields are also perceived to be out of the Patriots’ range, it’s not inconceivable that there are teams in the top 10 that prefer Jones, or even that teams aren’t willing to make that investment on Lance, who might have to sit for a season. The Patriots have to be prepared in case anyone tumbles, unexpectedly or otherwise.

Every possibility must be considered, including…

The possibility to trade up

The Patriots are trying to learn as much as possible about these five quarterbacks – as well as others, certainly – to figure out whether it makes sense to trade up.

Three years ago, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels repeatedly begged Baker Mayfield for a pre-draft meeting. McDaniels relayed the Patriots’ interest in moving up the board if Mayfield didn’t go No. 1 to the Browns, which was no sure thing in a draft class with quarterbacks Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and elite prospects at other positions.

The Patriots knew they couldn’t get to No. 1, but they sold Mayfield on the idea that they’d make a strong play to trade up if he fell to a more affordable draft slot.

Now, the Patriots are attempting to find the same conviction with this group. It would likely cost them the No. 15 pick and their 2022 first-rounder to move into the top 10. And if they’re interested in getting to the top 6-7, they might have to add a third-round pick to the package.

That’s a major haul, but it would be worth the price if they truly believed they were getting a franchise cornerstone. Conversely, if Lawrence and Wilson are unattainable and there’s too much uncertainty in their evaluations of Lance, Fields and Jones, the Patriots will at least feel comfortable staying at No. 15.

That’s why they’re doing so much work on the class’ premier prospects.

THIS AND THAT

LOUIS NIX

He is dead at age 29.  Michael DiRicco of ESPN.com:

Former Notre Dame football and NFL player Louis Nix, who had been reported missing earlier this week, was found dead on Saturday. He was 29. No cause of death was announced.

Nix’s family reported him missing on Wednesday to police. After several days of searching, the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office tweeted at 8 p.m. ET Saturday that Nix had been located but did not report Nix’s condition.

Fighting Irish coach Brian Kelly shared a video on Twitter of some of his fond memories of Nix.

According to the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office, Nix was last seen at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday, leaving his father’s Jacksonville residence. Kelly sent out a tweet Saturday morning asking for the public’s help in finding Nix.

Nix was injured in a shooting in December while filling his car’s tires at a gas station near the Jacksonville airport. He said on social media that he spent 10 days in the hospital and that a bullet ricocheted off his sternum and went into his lung.

Nix starred at Jacksonville’s Raines High School and played three seasons at Notre Dame before being drafted in the third round by the Houston Texans in 2014. Nix, a defensive tackle, never played a game for the Texans because of knee injuries and played in just four games in 2015 for the New York Giants. He also spent time on the practice squads with Washington and the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2016.

More info:

Jacksonville TV reporter Ben Becker talked to his mom on Monday, who said a car accident could be to blame.

His mother tells me investigators told her today “it appears to be accident something may have distracted him lost control and went into the pond.”

When I asked how investigators reached the conclusion that Nix lost control she said “Because the curve and they didn’t see the tire tracks until they really looked.”

When I asked what day and approximate time does JSO think Nix drove into the pond his mother said “They were trying to put a time line from his phone with who he was talking to last. But couldn’t find the phone.”

Nix mother shares with me excruciating details of how Nix was found “He surfaced from the water and on the grass. windows on passenger side was down. the pond is deep so it took some days for him to surface.”

I asked Nix mother if there were any indications of foul play or if he was driving to get away from someone, she said “they (JSO) said no indication of foul play more accident”

I asked Nix mother did JSO suggest if he was impaired somehow from pain meds related to the shooting or anything else and she said “No they didn’t but he may have been distracted by his phone.”

2021 DRAFT

Cynthia Frelund, the NFL Network’s Analytics Expert, formulates this Mock Draft.

Welcome to my first official Round 1 simulation of the 2021 NFL Draft! My analytics-based mock is based solely on a contextual, data-driven model that aims to do one thing: maximize each team’s potential to win as many games as possible in 2021. So, before you read any further, take note:

I am NOT attempting to predict or divine what teams will ACTUALLY DO on draft day.

For this particular file, the model considered current rosters, the overall market of potential free agents and 2021 draft prospects. How, exactly? Well, here’s how my mock works …

I use my draft prospect model, explained at the top of this article, to create a numerical value for each player. These ratings can be compared across years. Then I use my NFL model, which considers the market of potential free agents at each position, to create projected win-contribution metrics by player, position group and side of the ball. These get added up to predict win totals for the season. (Here’s an example of these metrics for WRs.) The results quantify strengths and weaknesses of current NFL rosters. My model also factors in as many known elements of coaching philosophies (of the current staffs) as possible, and each team’s 2021 opponents. Then, my model “selects” the draft prospect that would yield the highest win total for each team in the coming season.

Here’s the part that’s extra: I have projections and results for all teams and the draft prospects they selected over the past 15 seasons. I examine each season’s on-field results, objectively analyzing what happened while identifying the trends and strategies that led to success or failure. I also ask coaches, front office executives and even players to help me understand why results occurred. These subjective inputs help shape the results, meaning the model gets “smarter” each season.

There are a lot of real-life efficiencies that could be realized via draft-pick trades. I can’t help but to note them in certain cases. Still, for the sake of this particular mock, I did not allow for trades. If I worked for an individual team, an analysis like this could aid in creating a strategy for identifying potential trade partners, as well as vulnerable spots where other teams are most likely to scoop up particular players — especially given free agency.

Finally, another change to this year’s mock is a real refinement of how the on-field computer vision weighs on the predictions. Normally, it’s a huge factor, as a prospect’s most recent season-long on-field performance is the most valuable ingredient. This college season was odd (to say the least); the number of games played, when they were played and even situations/contexts faced were quite different from in years past. So I had to look for factors over longer periods of time (and their trajectories) and normalize all past measurements (like we’d get from the combine) for all 15 seasons using computer vision to make sure every comparison was as apples to apples as possible.

1 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence

Clemson · QB · Junior

Absent Deshaun Watson somehow falling into the Jaguars’ laps, Lawrence would do the most of all options available to immediately change the fortunes of a franchise that has finished with an offensive ranking of 27th or worse in six of the past 10 seasons. One factor driving this: Lawrence should be ready for the step-up in defensive intensity he’ll face in the pros. Pro Football Focus counts Lawrence as the only QB in this draft class who has faced the blitz over 200 times in the past three seasons.

2 – New York Jets

Penei Sewell

Oregon · OT · Junior

Ahead of free agency, this forecasts as the draft slot that is most likely to be traded; the Jets have many needs, and they should have no trouble finding a trade partner willing to hand them multiple picks, given that leap-frogging the Dolphins at No. 3 seems like a smart and necessary strategy for QB-needy teams. But since we are not allowing trades in this mock, we’ll focus on the best choice the Jets could make at No. 2. Sewell is the player who would give the Jets the most added wins, even more than any free agent veteran offensive lineman. He’s extremely young, but his improvement from 2018 to 2020 shows the top pass- and run-blocking win-share projection in the class. One note: This projection does assume linebacker C.J. Mosley is returning on defense after opting out of the 2020 season because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, edge rusher Kwity Paye and cornerback Caleb Farley show up here, too, based on need and fit with the coaching strategy new head man Robert Saleh’s history suggests he’ll implement.

3 – Miami Dolphins (from Houston)

Ja’Marr Chase

LSU · WR · Junior

Chase opted out of the 2020 season, but in 2019, he was the most open receiver in college football (that is, when viewing the percentage of targets where he had at least 3 yards to work with) on passes intended to travel more than 10 air yards. His speed on yards after the catch featured the least erosion (which is a measurement of fatigue) between game start and game end in the SEC — and that conference boasted some really great receivers that season.

4 – Atlanta Falcons

Kwity Paye

Michigan · EDGE · Senior

Paye flags as someone who will have a greater need for strong coaching than some of the other edge rushers to come out of the Big Ten recently; that is, he didn’t have as many consistently productive reps on every down as, say, Chase Young did. That said, pairing Paye with new Falcons defensive coordinator Dean Pees (who had great success in the past creating unique and efficient fronts for the Ravens, Pats and Titans) changes Atlanta’s ability to pressure pass-happy quarterbacks — like the ones they’ll face in the NFC South — A.S.A.P., with a lot of upside as the season goes along. Paye’s average burst when left unattended (measured by the time it takes him to travel 2 yards from the line of scrimmage) was the second-fastest in the NCAA this past season at his position (0.64 seconds).

5 – Cincinnati Bengals

Rashawn Slater

Northwestern · OT · Senior

I have no 2020 data on Slater, who, by opting out of a season that turned out to be a strong one for Northwestern, might have missed a great opportunity to put on film more proof that he’s best utilized as a tackle rather than as a guard. (Some might feel Slater is undersized for the tackle position, based on his traditional measurements.) Even so, Slater was the third-most effective O-lineman in the Big Ten at stopping or preventing QB pressure in 2019. Linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback Caleb Farley would add a lot of value to the Bengals, here, as well, but reinforcing Joe Burrow’s protection maps to the most success for Cincinnati in 2021.

6 – Philadelphia Eagles

Kyle Pitts

Florida · TE · Junior

I’m assuming here that a certain 30-year-old tight end will not be on the Eagles’ roster for the 2021 season — if Zach Ertz sticks in Philly, that will throw this projection off. Otherwise, my model likes Pitts as a sure-handed, high-probability pass-catcher. On snaps where Pitts ran routes, he displayed a faster burst (that is, the time it takes him to travel 2 yards from the line of scrimmage) than all but three FBS wide receivers in 2020.

7 – Detroit Lions

Micah Parsons

Penn State · LB · Junior

Parsons, who opted out in 2020, had the best marks in my college model in 2019 for run-game efficiency (measured by how many yards opponents gained on run plays while within 10 yards of Parsons). He also has strong blitz and pressure potential, as measured by how often he got past the defensive front when asked to blitz (he was in the top 10 percent among LBs of his type when blitzing).

8 – Carolina Panthers

Zach Wilson

BYU · QB · Junior

OK, I’m making another assumption here — prodded along by Teddy Bridgewater apparently unfollowing the Panthers’ Instagram account — that Carolina will be looking for a new quarterback, although there has been so much buzz about potential moves this team could make that I can easily see the Panthers’ top choice at No. 8 changing come Mock Draft 2.0. Wilson fits here based on his ability to connect with receivers on off-platform throws (that is, throws where his feet, hips and shoulder alignment aren’t set in the most kinetically efficient manner). Ask the pass-catchers working with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen Deshaun Watson about what a difference this makes. This trait would surely be maximized in Carolina by head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady, two of the most progressive offensive architects in the league.

9 – Denver Broncos

Justin Fields

Ohio State · QB · Junior

The Broncos have a need at cornerback, but — presuming free agent safety Justin Simmons returns — Fields’ ability to make use of Denver’s pass-catchers gives the Broncos about 0.8 more wins than they would add by selecting the best CB prospect and slotting either incumbent Drew Lock or any of the available free agents in at QB. PFF notes that 69.9 percent of Fields’ college passing yards came through the air, and my models add that his time to throw took 0.45 seconds less on non-primary reads in his final three college career games than in his first five. Between offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur’s play design and teaching ability and Fields’ ability to run the ball, the QB will have the chance to learn and adapt to NFL speed quickly.

10 – Dallas Cowboys

Gregory Rousseau

Miami · EDGE · Sophomore (RS)

Rousseau opted out in 2020, but his 2019 data was some of my favorite to track that year; he lined up all over the defensive front and generated pressures from every spot he was used in. He also improved his average time to pressure (adjusted for alignment) from the beginning of the season. Why does my model project someone with no 2020 data this high at this position? Well, Rousseau possesses pretty much every key upside marker: size, along with an improving ability to stay low in his center of gravity. He also played offense and safety in high school, meaning we haven’t likely seen his best pass-rushing stuff yet. 

11 – New York Giants

DeVonta Smith

Alabama · WR · Senior

Smith is my WR2because his consistent route running and ability to earn separation give him the highest projected floor and ceiling in this class. The Heisman Trophy winner had the highest percentage of receptions in which he had more than 3 feet of separation at the time of the catch despite a defender being within 3 feet of him on the path of the route. This vision carries over into yards after the catch; his ability to increase his speed once he had the ball in his hands was the third-best in the FBS this season.

12 – San Francisco 49ers

Caleb Farley

Virginia Tech · CB · Junior (RS)

PFF credits Farley with allowing a passer rating in coverage of just 26.8 in 2019 (he opted out in 2020). My model shows the Virginia Tech product had the best pursuit speed of any available corner in this draft. Combine him with that nasty Niners front, and new defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans will get off to a great start.

13 – Los Angeles Chargers

Jaylen Waddle

Alabama · WR · Junior

PFF counts Waddle in the top five in yards per route run (3.6) and in yards after the catch per reception (11.5) over the past two seasons. My model says his speed when open (when no defenders are closer than 3 yards) is the fastest in this draft class.

14 – Minnesota Vikings

Alijah Vera-Tucker

USC · G · Junior (RS)

I project Vera-Tucker at guard, though he has experience at USC at both that position and tackle. His ability to stay low in his stance through contact helps project him as a very reliable (that is, possessing a high projected floor) in both passing and rushing situations, as well as in play-action, which is extremely helpful for the Vikings’ scheme.

15 – New England Patriots

Trey Lance

North Dakota State · QB · Sophomore (RS)

I don’t love the small sample size (Lance has 17 starts to his name), but there are many indicators of positive upside, including his ability to take care of the ball. He had the lowest percentage of throws that were either picked off, batted down or thrown closer to a defender than the target. He has formation diversity (both out of the shotgun and under center) as well as strong results with alternate arm angles.

16 – Arizona Cardinals

Christian Darrisaw

Virginia Tech · OT · Junior

Darrisaw’s improvement from 2018 to 2019, and then to 2020, was the best amongst tackles in the FBS, which is even more impressive, considering the level of edge-rushing talent he faced.

17 – Las Vegas Raiders

Jayson Oweh

Penn State · EDGE · Sophomore (RS)

From a pure speed standpoint, on plays where he was not touched, Oweh had the fastest burst among edge rushers in the FBS last season, as measured by the time it took him to travel 5 yards from the line of scrimmage.

18 – Miami Dolphins

Jaelan Phillips

Miami · EDGE · Junior (RS)

Phillips has an injury red flag, having suffered several before leaving UCLA, but he had an outstanding 2020 season at Miami. He boasted the third-best burst from snap to 5 yards out from the line of scrimmage in the FBS last season.

19 – Washington Football Team

Patrick Surtain II

Alabama · CB

Ooh, my model likes Surtain, especially in the NFC East, where currently only the Cowboys pose a big threat to Washington. Per PFF, over the past two seasons, no receiver covered by Surtain earned more than 65 yards in a single game.

20 – Chicago Bears

Rondale Moore

Purdue · WR · Junior

Assuming the Bears find a way to keep receiver Allen Robinson on the team, adding a slot presence will help whomever is under center in Chicago. Over the past three seasons, Moore maintained his speed after contact on inside routes at the highest rate of any receiver in the FBS.

21 – Indianapolis Colts

Jaycee Horn

South Carolina · CB · Junior

PFF shows that Horn allowed just eight catches on 24 targets for 116 yards in seven games in 2020.

22 – Tennessee Titans

Christian Barmore

Alabama · DT · Sophomore (RS)

His ability to stop the run and pass are the best at the position in the FBS, and his results steadily improved from season’s start to finish. In his final two collegiate games, he had 12 pressures and eight stops (per PFF), which is even more impressive, considering his opponents were Notre Dame and Ohio State.

23 – New York Jets

Greg Newsome II

Northwestern · CB · Junior

Talk about a trajectory uptick — Newsome’s production and results in 2020 shot up the most from 2019 for any corner in the FBS (not just among draft-eligible players). PFF counts him as only allowing 12 catches on 34 targets for 93 yards all season.

24 – Pittsburgh Steelers

Dillon Radunz

North Dakota State · OT · Senior (RS)

One of my favorite things to measure is how far back O-linemen get pushed — or don’t get pushed, rather — by the defensive players trying to pressure their QB. Radunz’s results place him in the top 12 percent amongst tackles over the 15-season sample. It’s necessary to factor in the level of competition, but this is still the kind of result that usually equates to a career of 10-plus years. 

25 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

Notre Dame · LB · Junior (RS)

Versatile linebackers (he also played safety and slot corner) are extremely valuable in today’s game. No draft-eligible LB was faster (as measured by game speed) last season. Also a plus: His blitzing burst was the third-best at the position.

26 – Cleveland Browns

Trevon Moehrig

TCU · S · Junior

Moehrig led all college safeties in pass break-ups in each of the past two seasons. His 2019 data was most impressive, and the fact that he can defend slot receivers adds to his upside.

27 – Baltimore Ravens

Jalen Mayfield

Michigan · OT · Sophomore (RS)

The percentage of times he was pushed back on passing downs in 2020 compared to 2019 was significantly improved. On run-blocking snaps, Mayfield handled blitzes and athletic moves by defenders at the third-most consistent rate in the Power Five.

28 – New Orleans Saints

Kadarius Toney

Florida · WR · Senior

Interesting that a college player who lined up in the slot as much as Toney did lands here, joining a pro in Michael Thomas who crushes from the slot. Well, the paring is driven by Toney’s YAC and tackle-braking ability. PFF counts that he broke more than 30 tackles over the past two seasons.

29 – Green Bay Packers

Rashod Bateman

Minnesota · WR · Junior

Route-running precision is a metric my model values likely more than most, and Bateman thrives at it, especially when aligned on the outside. I’ve found that route-running precision leading to separation in college is correlated to the same things in the NFL. Bateman ranked No. 3 amongst wide receivers in terms of route-running efficiency (as measured by reliable timing and the ability to create separation) on routes run from outside alignment in the FBS over the past two seasons

30 – Buffalo Bills

Teven Jenkins

Oklahoma State · OT · Senior (RS)

When it comes to a great fit at right tackle, the Bills and Jenkins at 30 feels almost too good to be true. PFF counts only four total pressures allowed on 211 pass-blocking snaps. What he can do in the run game, though, is what makes this pairing work so well. Jenkins held his block and prevented pushback on rushing downs at the fourth-highest rate in the FBS over the past two seasons.

31 – Kansas City Chiefs

Azeez Ojulari

Georgia · EDGE · Sophomore (RS)

I think Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo would be very pleased with this one. Ojulari is fast. His burst (to 2 yards past the line of scrimmage) was the fastest in the FBS last season. He’s versatile in alignment use, which means Spags can be creative and not have to rely on coverage as much as he did in 2020.

32 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Levi Onwuzurike

Washington · DT · Senior (RS)

Should free agent Ndamukong Suh no longer be a Buc (which is my assumption), Onwuzurike could add production immediately. He opted out in 2020, but in 2019, his run-stopping ability and ability to quickly move laterally stood out. At the defensive tackle position, he ranked fifth in terms of pushing O-linemen back on rushing downs in 2019 in the FBS.