In 2020, the determination of Roger Goodell and the NFL played a significant role in breaking the lockdown mentality imposed by government experts.

In 2021, he is determined to get things back to as close to “normal” as we will be allowed.  Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com:

In an unprompted statement on Tuesday, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell laid out a lofty expectation when the league’s regular season kicks off in roughly five months:

Full capacity stadiums.

“All of us in the NFL want to see every one of our fans back,” Goodell said during his opening remarks to media on Tuesday, following a virtual league meeting with the NFL owners who pay his salary. “Football is simply not the same without fans, and we expect to have full stadiums in the upcoming season.”

That messaging is somewhat of a departure from the league’s “wait and see” approach going into 2020, when the NFL’s brass repeatedly stressed that the health and safety guidelines of state and local jurisdictions would dictate the league’s attendance policy. The result was a staggering attendance decline, from nearly 17 million in 2019 to 1.2 million fans during the pandemic — and a $4 billion shortfall in revenues, from roughly $16 billion in 2019 to $12 billion last season.

That’s made restoring fan attendance one of the league’s top priorities this offseason, as the country drives toward President Joe Biden’s recently revised goal of 200 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the first 100 days of his administration. But it’s unclear how Goodell’s “expectation” will align with the science of a pandemic that still hasn’t subsided, particularly if COVID infection rates don’t drop as vaccinations become more widely distributed. According to CDC statistics, nationwide infection rates in the United States spiked in early January following the holiday travel season. Then began a steady decline until mid-March, when there was a slight uptick in infection rates over the last two weeks.

None of that takes into account whether COVID variants could change the outlook of declining infections, or if the various vaccines being distributed prove to be as effective as advertised. Four months from now, the league could see health data information that either emboldens its expectation of full stadiums or wipes out the idea altogether.

But what’s clear is the NFL is serious about filling up its seats again, once again banging the drum on Tuesday that limited capacity stadiums in 2020 resulted in no known significant clusters of infections in the surrounding community. The implication is clear: The league managed to successfully pull off smaller crowds in the teeth of the pandemic without a vaccine, so it stands to reason that if the protections strengthen and infections decline, the NFL won’t waste time getting back to business as usual on game days.

The interesting twist thus far is that league is on the record saying it won’t mandate that its players get vaccinated heading into the 2021 season. Instead, the NFL will suggest that it’s in the best interest of the players and surrounding personnel, but thus far it hasn’t suggested it will incentivize vaccinations. That’s a departure from Major League Baseball, which advised teams that health and safety protocols would be relaxed for players who were vaccinated. For the NFL, it’s not even clear what the league’s protocols will look like in the next few months, let alone during the 2021 season, because the league and player’s union haven’t finalized a structure for an offseason slated to kick into gear in mid-April.

The NFLPA has stated that it would prefer a similar offseason to 2020, which essentially took the league’s entire in-house schedule and made it fully virtual, including classroom work, training and coaching sessions. There still appears to be a divide on that issue, with coaching staffs preferring to get rosters back into the fold for the organized team activities and post-draft minicamps that were staples until last season.

League and union sources said both sides hope to have made significant progress on the offseason structure by the end of next week, in the hopes of giving staffs and players time for planning purposes before team activities start up once again.

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

Grant Gordon of NFL.com reports that Packers president Mark Murphy is tight-lipped about any developments with QB AARON RODGERS and his contract:

Clarity remains elusive as it pertains to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers restructuring the generational quarterback’s contract.

Following the Annual League Meeting on Tuesday, Packers CEO and president Mark Murphy spoke with the media, but offered no details and few words regarding Rodgers or his contract.

“I can’t really get into specific players,” he said, via Matt Schneidman of The Athletic. “We’ve been able to create room with others.”

Packers such as linebacker Preston Smith and safety Adrian Amos have restructured their deals and the most important Packer of them all, Rodgers, looked to be headed down that same road. NFL Network’s Mike Silver reported on March 22 that the Packers were trying to negotiate a restructured deal with Rodgers that would free up salary-cap space and, if the deal happened, could possibly portend to how the team views Rodgers’ future in Green Bay.

Instead, there have been no developments.

Murphy was pressed further on Tuesday, but didn’t budge, including when he was asked if there was any concern about possible tension between the organization and its star quarterback.

“I’m not gonna get into any individual player or any issues along those lines,” he said.

Not long after the Packers’ second consecutive NFC Championship Game defeat, Murphy’s words spoke volumes when he memorably said, “There’s no way in heck Aaron is not gonna be on the Packers. … He’s our unquestioned leader, and we’re not idiots.”

Rodgers will be getting national exposure of a non-football sort starting next Monday.  WTMJ-TV:

A Jeopardy! spokesperson confirms to TMJ4 News when Aaron Rodgers’ episodes on the show will air beginning April 5 and will run through April 16, according to a spokesperson over email on Thursday.

On Jan. 12, the Packers quarterback announced that he is guest hosting Jeopardy! This will be the QB’s first time hosting. Rodgers took first place as a contestant on Celebrity Jeopardy! in 2015.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

And the veteran backup for QB KYLER MURRAY will be – COLT McCOY.  Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com:

The Red River Rivalry is coming to Arizona Cardinals’ quarterbacks room.

Colt McCoy, the former Texas standout, signed a one-year contract with Arizona, where he will back up former Oklahoma star Kyler Murray, the team announced Tuesday night.

The Cardinals let quarterback Brett Hundley, who backed up Murray in 2019 and was the team’s third-string quarterback in 2020, walk in free agency, leaving the team with former CFL quarterback Chris Streveler as Murray’s backup.

Coach Kliff Kingsbury, a former standout quarterback at Texas Tech before becoming the Red Raiders’ head coach from 2013 to 2018, had thrown his support behind Streveler as his choice to be Murray’s back-up multiple times last season.

McCoy could fill Hundley’s role as the veteran presence in the Cardinals’ quarterbacks room while being inactive all season.

McCoy has played for four teams in his 11-year NFL career, most recently spending the 2020 season with the New York Giants. He played in four games with two starts last season, while throwing for 375 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

McCoy also played for the Washington Football Team from 2014 to 2019, the San Francisco 49ers in 2013 and the Cleveland Browns from 2010 to 2012.

SAN FRANCISCO

Mike Sando of The Athletic points out that if the 49ers covet QB ZACH WILSON and the Jets don’t, San Francisco could pull the reverse of their role in the MITCHELL TRUBISKY trade.

The 49ers might not be finished climbing the draft board.

If San Francisco wanted to climb into the second overall slot for a shot at, say, Zach Wilson, that is much easier to accomplish from the third overall slot than it would have been from the 12th overall slot. The relationship between 49ers brass and New York Jets coach Robert Saleh could help facilitate a jump by the 49ers into the second slot, currently held by the Jets, if San Francisco could put together a deal enticing enough to get it done. Such a deal could include San Francisco sending a player Saleh values from his days coaching the 49ers, plus draft capital. The Jets have many options with the second pick and should think through all of them. A deal with San Francisco is one such possibility.

SEATTLE

Brady Henderson and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com on a new deal for recently acquired OL GABE JACKSON:

The Seattle Seahawks gave veteran guard Gabe Jackson a new three-year, $22.575 million contract after acquiring him in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders earlier this month, sources told ESPN on Tuesday.

Seattle essentially ripped up the two years that remained on Jackson’s contract with the Raiders, which the Seahawks inherited when they acquired him for a fifth-round pick on March 17. He was previously due base salaries of $9.35 million and workout bonuses of $250,000 in each of the next two seasons before entering free agency in 2023.

Now, Jackson gets $10.075 million this year — a $9 million signing bonus and $1.075 million in base salary — along with $6 million in 2022 and $6.5 million in 2023. He’s set to enter free agency in 2024.

Jackson’s new deal significantly reduces what would have been a $9.6 million salary-cap charge for 2021, something the Seahawks had to do given their cap constraints. OverTheCap.com has the team at more than $1 million above the spending limit, though that accounting doesn’t reflect the savings from Jackson’s new contract or the costs of some of their other signings whose details have yet to be reported.

Jackson said in a videoconference with Seattle-area reporters Tuesday, in his first public comments since the trade, that his contract was extended but did not provide any details. The 29-year-old Jackson, who spent his first seven seasons with the Raiders, likened his new start in Seattle to the feeling of having just been drafted.

“It feels like I’m a rookie all over again,” he said. “You get to go somewhere, meet new people and just start over.”

As for his exit from the Raiders, Jackson said a contract dispute was part of it but declined to go into detail.

The Seahawks’ trade for Jackson carried added significance in light of quarterback Russell Wilson’s public lobbying for the team to improve his pass protection. Jackson ranks 18th in ESPN’s pass block win rate as a guard over the past two seasons. Pro Football Focus did not attribute a single sack to him last season.

“He was excited,” Jackson said when asked about a conversation he’s had with Wilson since the trade. “I don’t know if he was as excited as me, but we’re excited to work together.”

Jackson is the lone addition the Seahawks have made this offseason to their offensive line, which returns four starters from last season in left tackle Duane Brown, center Ethan Pocic, right guard Damien Lewis and right tackle Brandon Shell. However, the Seahawks could continue to look for someone to compete for the starting job at center after bringing Pocic back on a one-year deal worth $3 million guaranteed. It’s also not clear which guard spot Jackson will play. He played on the left side his first two seasons, then moved to right guard in 2016 and has been there since.

He said he and the team haven’t discussed in depth which position he’ll play but that he’ll do whatever the team wants.

“I know this is a great group of offensive [linemen],” he said. “I’ve watched them play and I’m just excited to play with them because I know we can be great.”

Jackson was asked if Wilson’s comments about his pass protection put Seattle’s offensive line under the microscope.

“I wouldn’t say that,” he said. “As an offensive lineman or a player in general, I feel like you’re always under the microscope. But the best thing you can do is just be yourself and work hard, take coaching and just do your best. And if you do everything right, you train right, you practice right and all that, it’ll pay off on Sundays. Just do the small things.”

THIS AND THAT

THE 17-GAME SEASON

Dan Graziano of ESPN.com looks at the issues caused and resolved by the NFL’s decision to go to a 17-game season starting in 2021:

Welcome, NFL fans, to the Sweet Seventeen.

As has been expected for months now, NFL owners voted Tuesday to expand the regular season from 16 games to 17 starting this year. This is not a drill, people. This is happening.

And sure, you might have heard that it was going to happen, but you probably still have questions about the specifics. How will it work? Who plays whom? Who makes money off this deal?

We’re here for you. You’ve got questions, we’ve got answers:

Wait. This starts this season?

Yep. The 2021 regular season — as in, the one that starts in a little more than five months — will be the first 17-game regular season in NFL history. The new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) that was negotiated and signed last year allows the NFL to go to 17 games as early as this season, provided they’ve negotiated at least one new media rights deal, which they have.

The owners’ vote Tuesday was a formality, as they already had laid the groundwork for the format and addressed it with their network TV partners in the latest negotiations. Since the new CBA runs through 2030, this likely becomes the new NFL reality for the foreseeable future.

So, will the season start earlier or run later?

Run later. The Super Bowl, which had been scheduled for Feb. 6, 2022, is now expected to be played Feb. 13, 2022. The season is expected to start with the traditional Thursday night opener Sept. 9, which had been the plan even if the season had stayed at 16 games. The first regular-season Sunday is expected to be Sept. 12, and the Sunday of Week 18 — when the final regular-season games will be played — is expected to be Jan. 9, 2022. We say “expected to be” because we’re dealing with a year that still could be affected by the lingering COVID-19 pandemic.

Will teams get two bye weeks apiece?

No, they will not. The 17-game regular-season schedule will be played over an 18-week span, with each team still getting one bye week per season.

What about the preseason?

The preseason will shrink. The CBA mandates that the combined number of games per team in a season shall not exceed 20 (with an exception made for the two teams that play in the annual “Hall of Fame” preseason kickoff game). This means that, in any season that includes 17 regular-season games, no more than three preseason games can be played per team.

It’s possible the league would shorten the preseason even further, but at this time — and especially in light of the fact the entire preseason schedule was canceled in 2020 — the expectation is that there will be three preseason games per team. (Again, except for the teams in the Hall of Fame game, who would play four apiece.)

Can the players fight this?

Not anymore. The CBA gives the owners the right to expand the regular season to 17 games, which means the players already have signed off on this. You’ll hear plenty of grumbling about it, because in general players don’t like the idea of the toll an extra game will take on their bodies. And it was a significant point of contention a year ago, when the CBA was being negotiated.

The players who opposed the deal believed they should be extracting more concessions from the owners in exchange for the 17-game season, which the owners had made a priority. That sentiment was strong enough that the CBA barely passed a player vote — 1,019 to 959 — to achieve ratification. But pass it did, and this is the new reality whether the players like it or not.

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Are the players getting any more money out of this deal?

In the big picture, yes, very much so. The players’ share of league revenue, which had been 47% and was scheduled to rise to 48% starting with the 2021 league year, includes a “media kicker” that applies once the league goes to a 17-game regular-season schedule. Basically, depending on how much the new TV deals are worth, the players’ share of revenue can increase. If the new TV deals represent a 60% revenue increase over the old ones, the players’ share of revenue increases to 48.5%. If the new TV deals represent a 120% increase over the old ones, it goes to 48.8%.

The impact of those TV deals on the NFL’s economic landscape likely won’t be felt until 2023, but to give you some idea of the numbers we’re talking about: The league reported approximately $15 billion in revenue in 2019. If the players’ share of revenues were to rise from 48% to 48.8%, and we use 2019 revenue figures, that means an increase of about $120 million in revenue spent on player costs. Divide that by 32, and it would have made the 2020 salary cap about $3.75 million higher than it was.

Well, that’s nice for the future, but what about the players who are already under contract? Are they getting any more money?

Some of them will, yes. The CBA specifies that any player whose base salary is higher than the minimum number for a player of his service time will be eligible to receive an extra game check as long as (A) his contract was executed prior to Feb. 26, 2020, (B) his was not renegotiated or restructured in any way that added to subtracted value to it, and (C) he’s on the active roster, inactive list or injured reserve for the 17th game.

“Extra game check” is defined as 1/17 of the player’s base salary, and it’s to be paid as a lump sum at the end of the year. Some guys will make out pretty well on this. For example, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has a base salary of $23.8 million in 2021, which means he’ll get an additional $1.4 million — as long as he’s on the roster for the 17th game. (Garoppolo’s is the highest such number we’ve been able to find that we’re sure fits the formula.)

If a player signed his contract after Feb. 26, 2020, the idea is that he and his agent knew the 17-game season was coming, because it was clear at that point that the new CBA would include the right of the league to implement it, and so therefore, he doesn’t get any extra game checks.

Does the new schedule change the way the players get paid?

Yes, but the new CBA was going to do that anyway. Under the old agreement, players were paid in 17 weekly installments during the regular season — one for each game and one for the bye week. So if a player’s salary was $1.7 million, he’d get $100,000 every week starting in Week 1 and running through Week 17. Under the new format, he’d get paid over 18 weeks instead, so the guy making $1.7 million would now get a weekly check of $94,444.44 each week if the pay schedule remained the same.

The pay schedule, however, does not remain the same. Under the new CBA, players may be paid over a period of 34 weeks for any league year in which the regular season is 16 games or over 36 weeks for any league year in which the regular season is 17 games. This was a change the players pushed for, as it allows them to get paid for a larger chunk of the year than just in-season. Now that it’s a 17-game regular season, players will receive 1/36 of their base salary each week over a 36-week span that begins in Week 1 and runs through the 18th week following the end of the regular season.

How exactly will this all work, with an odd number of games?

The NFL’s 2021 schedule won’t be out for several more weeks, but the formula that decides each team’s opponents means teams have known for months who they’d be playing if the 2021 schedule had remained at 16 games. Adding the extra game means adding an extra opponent, and the owners voted some months ago on a format that would determine that extra opponent based on division standings from the previous year.

The league will match each division with a division in the other conference, rotating those matchups each season, and the team that finished first in one will play the team that finished first in the other, and so on. The current plan is to match interconference divisions that played each other two years ago, which means that, in this first 17-game season:

AFC East teams will play NFC East teams

NFC North teams will play AFC West teams

NFC South teams would play AFC South teams

NFC West teams will play AFC North teams

So, to determine the specific matchups, look at those pairings and see which teams finished in which spots in the standings in 2020. The Washington Football Team, which finished first in the NFC East, would play its extra game against the Buffalo Bills, who finished first in the AFC East. The Chicago Bears, who finished second in the NFC North, would play the Las Vegas Raiders, who finished second in the AFC West. The Carolina Panthers, who finished third in the AFC South, would play the Houston Texans, who finished third in the AFC South. And so on.

But won’t some teams get extra home games?

Yep. With each team playing 17 games in a season, the league’s schedule symmetry vanishes. Half of the league’s teams will play nine home games in the regular season, while the other half will play nine road games in the regular season. Fair? Not really, but everybody is getting rich off the deal, so they’re just going to have to live with it.

To maintain some level of equity, the owners have proposed a system under which one conference’s teams would get the extra home game one season and the other conference’s teams would get the extra home game the next. Example: All AFC teams play nine home and eight road games in 2021, then all NFC teams play nine home and eight road games in 2022, then AFC again in 2023 and so on.

We’re going to have to get used to weird-looking win/loss records, huh?

Indeed. Not even Jeff Fisher could go 8-8 under this format. Teams could go 8-8-1, maybe, but it’s going to be extremely unusual for a team to finish exactly .500 as long as there’s an odd number of games.

What about individual records? Will they need to carry asterisks now?

Good question, but I don’t see that being an issue. Sure, records for most rushing, receiving and passing yards that were set in 16-game seasons are all in jeopardy now that those seeking to beat them get an extra game to do it. But this has happened before. Prior to 1978, the NFL’s regular season was just 14 games. Obviously, a large majority of the league’s volume-based records have been set since the expansion to 16 games 43 years ago.

And surely, 43 years from now, we’ll look back (well, maybe you will) and say that all of the records had been broken and rebroken several times since 2020. The first time someone goes over 2,000 receiving yards in a season, some Scrooge somewhere is going to say, “Yeah, but Calvin Johnson set the record in only 16 games,” and they’re going to be right. But that’s just the way of the sports world.

We aren’t used to it in football because, well, it has been 43 years since we had a change like this. They didn’t even have Twitter then so everybody could find out what literally everybody else in the world thought about the change. Can you imagine?

Is all of this just a precursor to an eventual expansion to 18 regular-season games?

No. The CBA specifies that the league cannot expand the regular season beyond 17 games for the life of the deal, which runs through 2030. So the soonest the owners could expand to 18 games would be 2031, unless the players agreed to open up the CBA and renegotiate it, which would be a whole thing.

What other revenue-generating things could the expanded regular season lead to?

Sixteen extra games per season offers the league an opportunity to fill some of the new spaces on the TV schedule that will result from the new TV deals, whether that’s Monday Night doubleheaders, late-season Saturday games or Sunday morning-window games in other countries.

One of the topics in Tuesday’s owners discussion was the future of international games, with Canada, Germany, Mexico, Brazil and the United Kingdom all discussed as potential sites. Beginning in 2022, all 32 teams will play internationally at least once every eight years.

Will we see teams rest players because of the extra game?

Absolutely possible. Look, those of us who have been in NFL locker rooms in December and January know this is no small thing. These guys are badly beaten up by the end of a 16-game season, and it’s only going to be worse once it’s 17. Players are going to have to figure out the best way to manage themselves through a longer season, and it’s entirely possible that extra rest along the way will be a part of it.

Coaches — especially coaches of playoff-bound teams — are going to have to figure out the best way to manage their players through a longer season, and of course it’s possible that means more guys sitting in Weeks 17 and 18 just to make sure they’re in shape to play in the postseason. There’s likely going to be a lot of trial and error on this front in the first couple of years as everybody gets used to it.

Will the cost of my season-ticket package go up?

That, my friend, is a question for whichever team it is whose tickets you buy. I have no insight to offer there, but I do have a guess.

The NFL is having a second bye week, in effect, prior to the start of the regular season when it is doing away with the Week 4 games/scrimmage of non-entities usually played on Thursday before Labor Day.  So that holiday weekend will continue to be the property of college football.  Will Week 3 of the preseason continue to be somewhat interesting or will the awful games of Week 4 migrate to the new last week of preseason?

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com points this out:

Football is finally in the Olympics. Sort of.

For the second straight cycle, NBC will be televising the Super Bowl and the Winter Olympics in the same month. This time, with an extra week in the regular season, the Super Bowl will land in the middle Sunday of the Winter Olympics, in Beijing.

That’s what will happen in February 2022, with NBC carving out a large chunk of that middle Sunday, February 13, for Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles.

“We have been in constant communication with our partners about this change, and we’re excited for the unprecedented opportunity of presenting the American audience with the two biggest events in media simultaneously,” NBC said through a spokesperson. “We will promote the Super Bowl during the first week of the Winter Olympics, and we’ll promote the second week of the Winter Olympics during the Super Bowl. It’s a win for us, our partners, advertisers, and certainly viewers.”

Super Bowl LII happened in Minnesota a week before the commencement of the Winter Olympics. As part of the Super Bowl rotation, NBC was scheduled to broadcast Super Bowl LV in Tampa, but NBC and CBS swapped games, giving NBC another chance to televise both events.

2021 DRAFT

Here is how Dane Brugler and Chris Burke of The Athletic see the top of the draft playing out after Friday’s big news:

Everyone knew there would be a ton of trade chatter heading into the NFL Draft — there always is when the demand for potential franchise quarterbacks outweighs the available demand within the top 10. But did anyone outside of those involved expect two draft-shaking trades to drop on March 26, more than a month before Round 1 kicks off?

That’s what went down Friday, with Zach Wilson’s BYU pro day providing a surreal backdrop to it all. First, the Miami Dolphins flipped pick No. 3 to the San Francisco 49ers for No. 12, a third-rounder and two future first-rounders. Then, Miami general manager Chris Grier immediately traded back up, flipping Nos. 12, 123 and a 2022 first-rounder to the Philadelphia Eagles for Nos. 6 and 156.

Utter chaos.

As a result, it now looks like a virtual certainty — even more so than it did before — that quarterbacks will come off the board at picks Nos. 1, 2 and 3 overall. Could the Atlanta Falcons make it four straight? How might the rest of those top picks fall, now that San Francisco holds No. 3?

We take a quick spin through the updated possibilities, with The Athletic’s draft expert Dane Brugler making the picks, and Chris Burke nabbing an assist on the analysis.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Brugler: No suspense at the top, Lawrence and the Jaguars are locked in.

Burke: Has Jaguars GM Trent Baalke daydreamed at all about what he could get by trading back out of this spot? Probably not for long, but he’d probably be able to multiply what the Dolphins just landed for No. 3. The extra picks wouldn’t be worth it, though, if Lawrence is the type of generational talent some think he can be.

2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Brugler: Wilson has been the clear favorite here, and his pro day performance felt like the cherry on top. His natural throwing skills and instincts are special.

Burke: While the Dolphins, 49ers and Eagles were wheeling and dealing, Jets GM Joe Douglas could enjoy the Wilson pro day show. After it was over, our Jets beat writer, Connor Hughes, tweeted: “The pick is Wilson.” That’s no surprise, but it does all but confirm that Sam Darnold will be available over the coming weeks. What can the 2018 third overall pick bring back via trade?

3. San Francisco 49ers (via Miami): Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Brugler: The 49ers are trading up for a quarterback. But which one? My initial guess is Lance, who would be a natural fit with coach Kyle Shanahan. (But let’s be honest, so would Justin Fields and Mac Jones).

Burke: More intrigue here, because 49ers GM John Lynch said in trading up that Jimmy Garoppolo is still in the team’s plans but … is he really? What if, ohhh, the New England Patriots call with an offer to bring Garoppolo back to New England? And, if Garoppolo is sticking around, does that tip the scales here toward Lance? He could sit and develop while Jimmy G handles the start of this season.

4. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Brugler: The price of the No. 4 pick just increased. There is sure to be trade talk here or the Falcons could take Fields, which would mark the first time that quarterbacks go 1-2-3-4. But I’m going to pencil in Pitts right now and the impact he could make in that offense with Matt Ryan.

Burke: I’m curious to see how that trade buzz unfolds here. The most obvious trade-up option still out there is Carolina, which has been desperately hunting a new QB all offseason but also happens to be in Atlanta’s division. Maybe Detroit or Denver or New England gets into the mix. Ryan would be in for a huge bounce-back year with Pitts and Julio Jones catching passes in new coach Arthur Smith’s offense.

5. Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

Brugler: All of the receivers are still available here, which has to be enticing for Cincinnati. But the opportunity to keep Joe Burrow healthy and off the ground takes precedence.

Burke: There are going to be plug-and-play receivers at least into Day 2, maybe even three of this draft class. There haven’t been many offensive tackles, in this class or recent ones, who can move like Sewell can. It’d be hard to argue with this pick.

6. Miami Dolphins (via Philadelphia): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Brugler: The Dolphins are creating a track team with Will Fuller and now Waddle. The familiarity with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a selling point, but Waddle is a remarkable talent who is still scratching the surface.

Burke: Connecting the dots on all of this suggests Miami wanted to be in front of Detroit, which absolutely has to be thinking wide receiver early. As it falls here, being in the sixth spot gives the Dolphins their choice of every prospect at that position. Since everything just went off the rails anyway, though, might it also provide another chance to trade down come draft day? If Atlanta and Cincinnati stay put but don’t take quarterbacks, then suddenly this spot becomes very valuable for the Lance/Fields or Jones crowd.

7. Detroit Lions: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Brugler: The Lions lost their No. 1 receiving option (Kenny Golladay), but will land a new No. 1 with Chase. With his toughness and “my ball” mentality, he won’t be a tough sell for the new regime in Detroit.

Burke: Former Detroit GM Bob Quinn couldn’t find a trade down from No. 3 overall last year, and now it looks like new GM Brad Holmes might miss out on the quarterback rush this year. However, Chase (or DeVonta Smith) would address a massive problem for the Lions’ offense. The LSU product has the skill set to be a legitimate lead receiver in the NFL.

8. Carolina Panthers: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Brugler: If Lance goes No. 3 then Fields becomes the wild card. Will we see trade action from a team (Broncos, Patriots, Bears, WFT) looking to jump the Panthers? If not, Carolina can lock up its quarterback of the future.

Burke: Assuming quarterbacks go 1-2-3, the Panthers probably won’t be able to stay put and hope one of the other options falls into their lap. It happened to work out here, but this might be the front office most disappointed in how the trades unfolded Friday.

9. Denver Broncos: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Brugler: The Broncos were well-represented at the Penn State pro day to see Parsons run a 4.36 40-yard dash at 246 pounds. As long as maturity isn’t a problem, Parsons can become a cornerstone defender for Denver.

Burke: Yeah, those numbers from Parsons’ pro day were ridiculous. Parsons could stand as the odds-on favorite to be the first defensive player off the board. Even if he’s not, the floor for his Round 1 stock probably lands around the 15-17 range.

10. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

Brugler: Reuniting Surtain with Trevon Diggs makes too much sense for Dallas. Talent and need make this an easy projection.

Burke: The cornerback-to-Dallas setup almost feels like a foregone conclusion at this point. The only question then is whether the Cowboys would prefer Surtain, Jaycee Horn or Caleb Farley (depending on how his medicals look after back surgery). Surtain could be a lock-down, press-man corner at the next level.

11. New York Giants: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

Brugler: After some of their free-agent moves, the Giants are able to address the offensive line through the draft. Slater gives them legitimate five-position versatility.

Burke: Slater might appeal to the Bengals, Dolphins or Lions in the top 10, so finding him at 11 would be a bonus for the Giants. The entire NFL world knows how much New York GM Dave Gettleman loves the run game and wants a dominant offensive line. A Slater-DeVonta Smith debate might be very, very interesting for the Giants, though.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (via Miami): DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Brugler: Trading back opens up the options for the Eagles. Pass rusher? Cornerback? Wide receiver? Smith falls in their laps here. The Dolphins reunited Tua and Waddle, the Eagles could do the same with Jalen Hurts and Smith.

Burke: Everything worked out quite well here, thank you. The Eagles have an extra 2022 first-rounder they could use to target a quarterback if the Hurts experiment fails, and in this mock, they also landed an elite receiver prospect. It won’t be as stress-free a draft night down here — as we saw earlier, there’s a decent chance that every receiver or a combination of Kyle Pitts and every receiver minus one is available at No. 6. That luxury will be gone by 12, but the quarterback-heavy top of the draft should push down some standout talent.

This is where their exercise stops, so they don’t think MAC JONES goes in the top 12?

– – –

Lance Zierlien of NFL.com offers this first round:

Friday’s blockbuster trades altered the outlook for this year’s NFL draft, and those to come in the future. How will the moving and shaking impact Round 1, which begins a month from today? Below is my third mock draft of the first round.

Quick reminder: This mock is a projection of where I believe players will go, not necessarily a reflection of my opinion as to where the players should go.

1 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence

Clemson · QB · Junior

Lawrence has rare potential and special traits. I’m not wavering from my projection for the presumptive No. 1 overall pick.

2 – New York Jets

Zach Wilson

BYU · QB · Junior

Wilson made some big, splashy throws at his pro day, and my guess is the Jets are locked in on him being the new face of the offense.

3 – San Francisco 49ers

Trey Lance

North Dakota State · QB · Sophomore (RS)

Lance was the projected selection for the 49ers in my mock draft 1.0, when they held the No. 12 pick, so it won’t be a surprise if he’s the player they’re targeting after trading up. He’s such a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

4 – Atlanta Falcons

Patrick Surtain II

Alabama · CB · Junior

The Falcons could take a quarterback here to learn behind Matt Ryan or trade out of this spot, but Surtain is the pick they need as a lockdown cornerback.

5 – Cincinnati Bengals

Penei Sewell

Oregon · OT · Junior

Sewell will need some development from a physical and technical standpoint, but I expect him to start early on, which will lead to Jonah Williams moving inside to guard.

6 – Miami Dolphins

Ja’Marr Chase

LSU · WR · Junior

With the move down the board, the Dolphins add draft capital and still land the player they covet. Great job by GM Chris Grier and his team.

7 – Detroit Lions

DeVonta Smith

Alabama · WR · Senior

The Lions must add more help at receiver for Jared Goff. Smith is the most talented inside/outside target in this draft.

8 – Carolina Panthers

Mac Jones

Alabama · QB · Junior (RS)

Carolina gets a quarterback with good accuracy and quick eyes who is coming off of a season that was eerily similar to Joe Burrow’s when Panthers OC Joe Brady coached him at LSU.

9 – Denver Broncos

Justin Fields

Ohio State · QB · Junior

Selecting Fields would be a bold — but potentially necessary — move for the team to take the next step.

10 – Dallas Cowboys

Rashawn Slater

Northwestern · OL · Senior

Slater has the versatility to play any position on the O-line and will help strengthen a Cowboys front five that was decimated by injuries last season.

11 – New York Giants

Kyle Pitts

Florida · TE · Junior

Dream scenario here, as the Giants get a chance to choose between electric speed (Jaylen Waddle) and matchup talent (Pitts). I see them taking the latter.

12 – Philadelphia Eagles

Jaylen Waddle

Alabama · WR · Junior

Moving back and grabbing Jalen Hurts‘ former Alabama teammate is a strong play. Waddle can help open up the offense and threaten with yards-after-catch throws underneath.

13 – Los Angeles Chargers

Christian Darrisaw

Virginia Tech · OT · Junior

While the Chargers could use a cornerback, they almost have to have a left tackle. Darrisaw is one of the more talented blind-side protectors in this draft.

14 – Minnesota Vikings

Alijah Vera-Tucker

USC · OL · Junior (RS)

Vera-Tucker’s arms ended up being shorter than expected at his pro day, but he still gives the Vikings a much-needed addition with guard/tackle flexibility.

15 – New England Patriots

Micah Parsons

Penn State · LB · Junior

Parsons could slip due to character concerns, but he’s super talented and Bill Belichick’s “Patriots Way” might be a good fit for the young linebacker.

16 – Arizona Cardinals

Jaycee Horn

South Carolina · CB · Junior

Big win for the Cardinals here if Horn falls to them. He has all the physical tools Arizona could be looking for and is capable of starting right away.

17 – Las Vegas Raiders

Christian Barmore

Alabama · DT · Sophomore (RS)

Many mock drafts have Las Vegas targeting a linebacker here, but Barmore is a true two-way defensive tackle who can improve the Raiders’ run defense and interior pass rush.

18 – Miami Dolphins

Kwity Paye

Michigan · Edge · Senior

During last week’s Michigan pro day, Paye blazed a 4.52 40-yard dash at 261 pounds, while also posting impressive numbers in the vertical leap (35.5 inches), broad jump (9 feet, 10 inches) and bench press (36 reps). A strained quadriceps prevented Paye from performing the agility drills — where he was really supposed to turn heads — but he’s established himself as one of the freakiest athletes in this class. It’s not hard to imagine Dolphins GM Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores falling in love with these traits.

19 – Washington Football Team

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

Notre Dame · LB · Junior (RS)

Big-time talent who brings an explosive blend of speed, aggression and versatility. He’s still learning, but should become a high-end linebacker with rush and cover ability, as well.

20 – Chicago Bears

Gregory Rousseau

Miami · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

Robert Quinn, last offseason’s big addition on a five-year $70 million deal, provided a grand total of two sacks in 2020. Rousseau remains raw, with just 15 college games under his belt, but he offers enticing length and athleticism on the edge.

21 – Indianapolis Colts

Jayson Oweh

Penn State · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

GM Chris Ballard could opt for cornerback help, but he usually looks to build the fronts. Not many men walk the Earth with Oweh’s size and athletic profile. Ballard just might swing the bat on pass rush here.

22 – Tennessee Titans

Greg Newsome II

Northwestern · CB · Junior

Newsome’s stock has been on the rise after an electric pro day. The Titans need a cornerback, and the highly competitive Northwestern product feels like a perfect fit.

23 – New York Jets

Azeez Ojulari

Georgia · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

Ojulari will need to refine his pass-rushing plan to consistently succeed at the next level, but the raw explosiveness showcased at his pro day is special.

24 – Pittsburgh Steelers

Zaven Collins

Tulsa · LB · Junior (RS)

When the need matches the talent available, everyone is happy. Collins has throwback size, but new-school athleticism and coverage ability as a three-down player.

25 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Teven Jenkins

Oklahoma State · OT · Senior (RS)

The Jaguars immediately protect the investment they made at No. 1 overall, giving Trevor Lawrence a mauling blocker who can immediately start at guard or tackle.

26 – Cleveland Browns

Jaelan Phillips

Miami · Edge · Junior (RS)

The former five-star recruit carries some medical concerns, but he brings a rare skill set off the edge. Phillips and Myles Garrett could wreak havoc in Cleveland.

27 – Baltimore Ravens

Terrace Marshall Jr.

LSU · WR · Junior

The Ravens need more juice in the passing game, and Marshall offers an alluring size-speed combo out wide.

28 – New Orleans Saints

Elijah Moore

Mississippi · WR · Junior

The versatile wideout with soft hands and outstanding toughness can win from any alignment, working all areas of the field. Not a bad piece to have in the post-Drew Brees era.

29 – Green Bay Packers

Tyson Campbell

Georgia · CB · Junior

Campbell is still in need of polish, but has impressive size and speed to help inject some new life into the Packers’ back end.

30 – Buffalo Bills

Caleb Farley

Virginia Tech · CB · Junior (RS)

Farley’s slotting in the first round is tenuous in the wake of an additional back procedure. While he’s expected to be ready for camp, the Bills will need to have their team doctors clear him. This would be tremendous value if he ends up being ready to rock.

31 – Kansas City Chiefs

Landon Dickerson

Alabama · C · Senior (RS)

Dickerson is a coach’s dream with his infectious attitude, toughness and versatility along the interior. The only thing preventing him from being a first-round lock is a concerning injury history.

32 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Travis Etienne

Clemson · RB · Senior

Etienne is violent, fast and able to impact the game on all three downs. He would be an immediate upgrade to the Tampa offense that could continue beyond Tom Brady‘s tenure.