AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
| NFC NORTH |
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GREEN BAY
The rumormongers said QB AARON RODGERS took $200 million to stay in Green Bay. He denies the former, but confirms the latter. Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:
The beautiful mystery tour will continue. Aaron Rodgers is not done with the Green Bay Packers just yet, and now there really is a chance the four-time NFL MVP will finish his career in the same place it started.
Rodgers announced Tuesday on Twitter that he will return to the Packers for the 2022 season.
The sides are working on a new contract that would lower his salary-cap figure for the 2022 season while giving Rodgers, 38, contractual clarity well into his 40s.
Rodgers, however, said a deal has not yet been signed or agreed upon.
“Hey everyone, just wanted to clear some things up; YES I will be playing with the @packers next year, however, reports about me signing a contract are inaccurate, as are the supposed terms of the contract I “signed”. I’m very excited to be back #year18,” he tweeted.
The Packers’ Super Bowl odds improved from 15-1 to 12-1 on Tuesday at Caesars Sportsbook, which has Green Bay as the favorite in the NFC.
Rodgers promised to avoid a lengthy decision-making process, and now general manager Brian Gutekunst — once part of Rodgers’ dissatisfaction with the organization — can put together his plan to field another Super Bowl contender.
It means Jordan Love, who is entering his third NFL season, will have to wait at least another year before he gets a crack at the starting job. Rodgers sat for three seasons behind Brett Favre before he took over.
Rodgers should also still have WR DAVANTE ADAMS to throw to as he gets a franchise tag:
The Packers are not letting Davante Adams walk in free agency. The chase for a multiyear extension, however, continues.
Green Bay on Tuesday placed the franchise tag on arguably the top wideout in football, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported, per a source. The move might be a placeholder for a bigger pact.
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst expressed in late February his desire to strike a long-term deal with Adams. The two sides have until July 15 to reach agreement on a contract that would supersede the projected $20.145 million tag for Adams, per Over The Cap.
Aaron Rodgers‘ most-trusted target has certainly proven to be worth much more. And with the MVP quarterback agreeing to terms on a new contract to remain in Green Bay, securing Adams for at least the 2022 season became seemingly inevitable. |
| NFC EAST |
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DALLAS
TE DALTON SCHULTZ gets a franchise tag. Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
The Dallas Cowboys are ensuring they’ll have at least one top-flight tight end to open the 2022 season.
NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Tuesday that the Cowboys are franchise tagging tight end Dalton Schultz, per a source informed of the situation. The team later announced the news.
The franchise tender for tight ends sits at $10.931 million for 2022, making it an easy decision for Dallas as it attempts to work out a long-term deal with Schultz.
Sides have until July 15 to agree on a multiyear deal, or the TE will play 2022 on the one-year tender.
The low cost to keep a tight end on the franchise tag relative to the top of the positional market — George Kittle at $15 million per — has led to three TEs being tagged this offseason: Schultz, the Dolphins’ Mike Gesicki and the Browns’ David Njoku.
The Cowboys’ decision to franchise tag Schultz has been telegraphed in recent weeks. It became almost a formality after news surfaced that fellow Cowboys tight end Blake Jarwin underwent hip surgery that is expected to sideline him for at least the start of the 2022 season and possibly longer.
The Jarwin situation made Dallas hanging onto Schultz vital.
The 25-year-old Schultz is coming off a breakout season, generating career-highs of 78 receptions, 808 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
The Cowboys have significant questions at wide receiver, with Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, Noah Brown and Malik Turner headed toward free agency next week — unless the Cowboys can re-sign one or more before then. The cap-strapped Cowboys are likely to cut star receiver Amari Cooper if they can’t find a trade partner.
By tagging Schultz, the Cowboys ensure that Dak Prescott will have at least one reliable tight end target. How the rest of the pass-catching crew shakes out remains to be seen. |
| NFC SOUTH |
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ATLANTA
A tweet from former NFL player Damien Woody:
@damienwoody
This whole Calvin Ridley situation doesn’t sit well with me. Not excusing what he did at all but considering how the league has fully embraced sports gambling & these owners owning or partnering with these sportsbooks….man |
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TAMPA BAY
It is a second franchise tag for WR CHRIS GODWIN. Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers placed their franchise tag on veteran wide receiver Chris Godwin on Tuesday, the team announced.
A long-term deal with Tampa Bay could get done before Monday’s legal tampering period kicks off, but no contract will be done by Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline, a source said. As such, he’ll receive $19.18 million. The two sides had been working on hammering out a new contract for the last 24 hours, sources said.
Godwin is being tagged for the second straight year, which is why he’s not receiving the standard $18.419 million for the receiver position. He was tagged for $15.98 million last year, and NFL rules mandate that a player tagged for the second consecutive year receives a 120% bump of his salary from the previous year. |
| NFC WEST |
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SEATTLE
We put the QB RUSSELL WILSON deal in DENVER.
And now there is no players left from the Super Bowl 48 champions. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Seahawks are officially rebooting. Or rebuilding. They’re definitely not reloading.
Via multiple reports, the Seahawks are releasing veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner. He was the last man standing from the team’s Super Bowl XLVIII championship in 2012.
The move creates $16.6 million in cap space, wiping out the final year of his four-year deal. He leaves behind a $3.75 million cap charge for 2022, which the Seahawks would have carried, whether he was on the team or not.
Because the Seahawks are releasing Wagner, he immediately becomes a free agent. He gets a head start on free agency; he can sign with any other team at any time.
Wagner is an eight-time Pro Bowler and a five-time All-Pro. At 31, he may have a few solid years left with a new team.
– – –
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com with a long look at the big trade from the Seahawks side:
What are the Seahawks thinking?
The immediate responses on social media and television after a team trades away a franchise player for a package built around draft picks are never pretty. It’s always easier to see the value of the bird in the hand than the two in the bush. Those trades don’t always work out well for the acquiring team; the Los Angeles Rams feel great about dealing four first-round picks for Matthew Stafford and Jalen Ramsey, but the Chicago Bears haven’t won a playoff game with Khalil Mack, the Houston Texans melted down around Laremy Tunsil and these very same Seahawks are apparently going in a different path after trading two first-rounders for Jamal Adams.
All of the teams that traded away those star players were essentially admitting that they were starting over. The Detroit Lions underwent a regime change and were rebuilding. The Jacksonville Jaguars were 2-4 and starting Gardner Minshew at quarterback. The then-Oakland Raiders had just hired Jon Gruden as coach and were purging their roster. The Miami Dolphins were seemingly tanking. And the New York Jets had just hired a new general manager, had Adam Gase as their head coach and were dealing with a player who had asked to be traded. None of these teams were close to competing.
So trading Wilson indirectly tells us that the Seahawks felt the same way about where they stood in the NFC West, especially without a starting-caliber quarterback or a path to a top-five pick coming their way in return. NFL teams don’t make this sort of deal unless they’re either forced to by a player’s behavior or think they can’t win a Super Bowl without radical changes. It doesn’t appear that the former was happening with Wilson, so unless it comes out that Wilson was raiding Carroll’s gum stash, I think this deal suggests that the Seahawks believed they couldn’t win another Super Bowl with Wilson as the focal point of their roster.
I think you can probably understand why the Seahawks would be right to feel that way. In a division where three teams won 10 or more games and made it to the postseason a year ago, Seattle went 7-10. Part of that owed to Wilson’s thumb injury, which caused the star passer to miss games for the first time in his professional career, but the Seahawks were also 6-8 with Wilson as their QB. The Rams just won a Super Bowl. The Arizona Cardinals have a 24-year-old with superstar upside as their quarterback. The San Francisco 49ers have one of the best rosters in football and just went all-in for Trey Lance. But the Seahawks were three games back and didn’t have a first-round pick in 2022 as a result of the Adams trade. It didn’t feel like they were getting better as an organization.
Take a step back further: For all the regular-season success the Seahawks have had, the roster hasn’t made a deep playoff run with Wilson at quarterback since that crushing loss to the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl after the 2014 season. That game took place seven years ago, which might as well be an eternity in NFL times; Wilson and linebacker Bobby Wagner were the only players left on the Seattle roster from that game.
Since then, the Seahawks have failed to make it out of the divisional round, where they’ve been overmatched in virtually every appearance. In 2015, they went down 31-0 to the Carolina Panthers by halftime. In 2016, they trailed the Atlanta Falcons by 16 points in the third quarter. In 2019, they went down 21-3 against the Packers before launching a late comeback. Their playoff wins came over Teddy Bridgewater (in a game where Blair Walsh missed a chip-shot field goal to win), Stafford and Josh McCown. Add in wild-card losses in 2018 and 2020, and the Seahawks haven’t looked like a conference championship team over the past six years, let alone a Super Bowl contender.
Is it fair to view the Seahawks that way? I don’t think so. The Seahawks’ underlying performance in 2021 was much better than their actual record, as Seattle finished eighth in DVOA and had a positive point differential. After two years of winning an unsustainable number of their close games, the Seahawks were 2-5 in games decided by seven points. Those factors suggest that they were extremely likely to improve in 2022 if they were able to keep Wilson on the field.
As many Seahawks fans will also tell you, it’s not necessarily fair to pin those playoff disappointments on Wilson. Carroll’s reticence to commit to the pass and make Wilson the focal point of the offense has been maddening in key moments (with what happened at the end of that Super Bowl as the most obvious exception). In the Packers game, for example, the Seahawks handed the ball to Marshawn Lynch 12 times for 26 yards. The Seahawks went down 21-3 at halftime before putting the ball in Wilson’s hands. Seattle scored 20 points in the second half, as Wilson went 15-of-18 for 172 yards with a touchdown, but it was too little, too late.
What’s critical in evaluating this trade, though, is that gap between how most people perceive the Seahawks and how the Seahawks have seemingly perceived themselves. For years, everyone has looked at them and wanted them to throw more. Outside of a half-season in 2020, the Seahawks haven’t been willing to make that commitment. Carroll has repeatedly harped on the importance of running the ball and playing great defense. Seattle has invested significant draft capital in running backs, focused on offensive linemen who are solid run-blockers and sent two first-round picks to the Jets for a safety whose best role is as a blitzer and run defender. The Seahawks were 21st in defensive DVOA a year ago.
As much as the Seahawks are moving on from Wilson as an individual, this is an ideological shift for them back to what Carroll believes is the correct formula for winning football games. They won a Super Bowl with a dominant defense, a physical running game and a quarterback they drafted in the third round who was making peanuts and threw the ball 25 times per game. They evolved into a team with one of the most expensive quarterbacks in football and that couldn’t rush the passer. I don’t think Carroll, in his heart, believed that change was for the better.
On top of all that, this move is likely a product of the decision to trade those two first-round picks for Adams, a deal I preferred for the Jets at the time. That move only confirmed the issues we saw with Carroll and Seattle’s evaluation process, including an antiquated focus on players who impact the run and an over-investment in players who don’t play premium positions in the modern NFL. I’m not sure the Seahawks make this deal today if they still have those first-round picks and just go out and sign somebody else to play safety.
If the Seahawks were ever going to make the Wilson trade, you could argue now was the time. The Broncos, having spent the past two years desperately agitating for a superstar quarterback, had just been let down by Rodgers staying in Green Bay. Wilson has two years left on his deal, which realistically means that he was only one year away from a de-facto deadline for negotiating a new deal. Wilson’s first two negotiations were contentious, and the 33-year-old was about to take another huge financial leap on his next negotiation.
So if Seattle decided that it couldn’t win a Super Bowl with this sort of roster construction or got sick of its personal relationship with Wilson, it wasn’t going to make sense to do a new deal. Trading him now, after a season where an all-in team won a Super Bowl and before the deadline started ticking on his deal to come, is probably better than what would have happened if the Seahawks traded Wilson next offseason.
I can try to get in the Seahawks’ head and understand where they were coming from in making this deal, but that’s not the same thing as agreeing with what they’re thinking, which leads to the next question …
Is this enough of a return?
No, I don’t think so. The Seahawks are certainly getting plenty of volume back for one of the best players in franchise history, but it’s more quantity than quality. In return for sending Wilson and a fourth-round pick, the Seahawks will receive two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick and three players from the Broncos.
Let’s start with the players. The most notable of the three is probably quarterback Drew Lock, a 2019 second-round pick who hasn’t looked like an NFL-caliber quarterback. Across 710 pass attempts, Lock has been below-average in virtually every statistical category. Playing with what is regarded as an exciting group of young receivers, Lock has failed to complete 60% of his passes or average seven yards per attempt. Entering the final year of his rookie deal, Lock can’t be treated as much more than an emergency option under center.
The other players might be more impactful. At tight end, the Seahawks will add former first-round pick Noah Fant, who has flashed skill and receiving upside without putting together a single standout season as a pro. With Gerald Everett and Will Dissly both free agents, Fant will inherit the starting job after ranking ninth in yards per route run and 14th in yards per target among tight ends last season. The Seahawks will likely pick up Fant’s fifth-year option, which will keep the Iowa product under contract through 2023.
The other move is for Shelby Harris, who will likely join the defensive tackle rotation in Seattle. Harris’ market didn’t develop after what felt like a breakout season in 2019, which led the Raiders draftee to return to the Broncos on a one-year deal. After contributing further in 2020, the Broncos signed Harris to a three-year, $27 million extension last March. Harris has two years and about $17 million remaining on that deal, only $5 million of which is guaranteed. But I’m not sure he solves Seattle’s need for pass-rushing help or plays a position the Seahawks couldn’t have addressed in free agency.
The four draft picks help replenish what was lost by the Adams trade. Leaving the midround selections aside, the Seahawks will reportedly pick up the No. 9 and 40 selections in this year’s draft. They’ll also have first- and second-round picks coming due after this season, although it’s unclear whether those will be in 2023 or beyond.
It’s easy to assume that those future picks will be at the end of the first round, given that the Broncos are acquiring a quarterback who has gone 104-53-1 as a starter. Yet we also know that assumption is flawed. The Texans had been regular contenders when they sent two first-round picks to the Dolphins for Tunsil, but despite having Deshaun Watson at quarterback, they went 4-12 and sent the No. 3 overall pick to Miami. The Seahawks had been a winner every year with Wilson, but with their starter missing time, Seattle will send the No. 10 overall pick this year to the Jets.
If they do come in the bottom quarter of each round, though, it’s difficult to see this shaping up as a great return for the Seahawks. They came away with more for Wilson than the Rams did for Stafford, but the Lions were in a less competitive situation and were trading away a quarterback who hadn’t been as productive as Wilson over the past several seasons. The ninth overall pick could help the Seahawks land the sort of impact pass-rusher or left tackle they need (Duane Brown is hitting free agency), but it also sacrifices the most important player on Seattle’s roster to get there. The Seahawks will also realize a significant cap savings, but that doesn’t come until 2023, as they’ll eat $26 million in dead money on their 2022 cap as part of this trade.
Of course, Seahawks fans might wonder whether they should be optimistic about their team’s chances of turning draft picks into superstars. GM John Schneider had a sterling track record early in his run at general manager, landing future Hall of Famers like Wilson, Wagner and Richard Sherman in the middle rounds, but his recent track record has been far more mixed. The Seahawks have generally been aggressive about trading up and down the board, and while that landed them DK Metcalf at the end of the second round in 2019, the halo came off of Schneider’s drafting years ago. What he does with these picks will end up determining the general manager’s future in Seattle.
I’m surprised that the Seahawks were not able to get a more significant draft haul as part of a Wilson deal, but maybe that wasn’t in the cards for a player in his mid-thirties who is about to get a massive extension. Wilson had a no-trade clause, which might have limited his destinations, and reports have also suggested that the Seahawks wanted to deal Wilson out of the NFC. Carroll won’t have to compete with Wilson for a playoff berth, but he won’t have to wait long for a reunion; the Broncos travel to Seattle to play the Seahawks this upcoming season.
The Seahawks could end up trading out of that ninth pick to add extra picks. They might also use it to add a quarterback. I can’t imagine Seattle coming out of this offseason with Lock and Jacob Eason as their only two options at quarterback. And to that end, the last question for them in this deal revolves around replacing Wilson.
What does Seattle do next at quarterback?
In part, this will be informed by what the Seahawks think about their roster without Wilson. If the rebuild is on, they’ll likely cut or trade Wagner, look into a Tyler Lockett deal (probably after June 1 for cap reasons) and build a new core around Adams and Metcalf. If Carroll and Co. think they can transition quickly and win as early as 2022, they’ll keep those veterans around and go for a more experienced option at quarterback.
The trade options in the veteran group aren’t overwhelming, especially now that Rodgers and Wilson are off the board. The 49ers probably wouldn’t trade Jimmy Garoppolo within the division to their rivals. Watson’s future is uncertain. Players like Jared Goff and Sam Darnold would be expensive guesses.
The best choice available would likely be Carson Wentz, who appears to be set to leave Indianapolis by trade or release before the new league year begins. Wentz would count for $28 million or so on Seattle’s cap this year, which would eliminate the cheaper option from the equation, but the Seahawks also wouldn’t need to give Wentz any sort of massive extension before proving himself as a starter. The former Eagles standout has his limitations and would get exposed behind a porous offensive line, but he also finished 13th in QBR last season. Getting Wentz for a midround pick would make sense for the Seahawks if that’s a viable option.
Otherwise, the Seahawks might be waiting for the quarterback market to shake out. They probably won’t get Garoppolo, but if the veteran ends up with the New York Giants, Seattle could be the one to end up with Daniel Jones. The same could be true with Cleveland if the Browns want to move on from Baker Mayfield. Borderline starters like Bridgewater and Mitchell Trubisky are also available in free agency.
Regardless, it’s pretty clear that the Seahawks won’t be able to approximate Wilson’s performance with a veteran replacement. I also wouldn’t have much faith in them succeeding, given that this same braintrust traded for Charlie Whitehurst and signed Matt Flynn to be their starting quarterback before eventually landing on Wilson in the third round of the 2012 draft. Landing a successful quarterback on the cheap is a nifty trick, but I’m not sure it’s one the Seahawks will be able to repeat.
With that in mind, then, the ninth overall pick looms as a possible landing spot. The Seahawks will be ahead of teams like the Washington Commanders (No. 11), Philadelphia Eagles (No. 15), New Orleans Saints (No. 18) and Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 20) in the line for potential rookie quarterbacks, although the Seahawks will be behind the Lions, Texans, Giants and Panthers, each of whom could draft a passer. Teams could also move ahead of Seattle by trading up with the Jets at No. 4 or the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8.
The other option would be to roll with a short-term option like Bridgewater in 2022 and re-evaluate things in 2023, when the Seahawks will likely have two first- and second-round picks in what is expected to be a deeper, more exciting class of quarterbacks. Given Carroll’s near-pathological emphasis on competing, I can’t imagine the Seahawks willingly tanking or giving up on a season, but I can see a universe where they try to win like it’s 1979 and end up with a win total that would have been more in line with a 14-game season as a result.
In the long run, that’s what will end up defining this deal for the Seahawks. If Seattle can make this trade and make a successful transition to the post-Wilson era in the process, this will have been the right move for the organization, especially given Wilson’s unhappiness over the past couple of seasons. But if they can’t find a replacement for Wilson and spend years wandering in the wilderness as a result, ownership will look back and wonder if they should have chosen Wilson over Carroll. |
| AFC WEST |
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DENVER
And the big bombshell is the Broncos acquiring their best QB since John Elway, and paying a huge price for a 33-year-old. Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
It’s not Aaron Rodgers, but the Denver Broncos made their splash play for a Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Tuesday the Seahawks and Broncos agreed in principle on a trade sending quarterback Russell Wilson to Denver for a massive haul, including multiple first-round draft picks, plus additional picks and players, per sources informed of the decision.
The full package for Seattle, which also sent a fourth-round pick Denver’s way: two first-rounders, two second-rounders, a fifth-rounder, quarterback Drew Lock, defensive tackle Shelby Harris and tight end Noah Fant, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.
The trade is pending a physical and Wilson waiving his no-trade clause, and it cannot be finalized until the new league year begins March 16.
The future of the nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback had been in question in Seattle for more than a year, despite Wilson insisting this offseason he wanted to remain with the Seahawks.
Now he’s on the move from the NFC West to the AFC West.
Landing Wilson represents a huge coup for Broncos general manager George Paton, who took a big swing at finally finding a solution to the most vital position in sports. Denver had been in quarterback purgatory since Peyton Manning’s retirement following the 2015 season, cycling through signal-callers without an answer.
Now the Broncos find themselves with a transformational passer.
Wilson had an up-and-down 2021 campaign. He started hot, then a finger injury caused him to miss the first games of his career, and he wasn’t the same immediately after returning. But he caught fire again down the stretch, indicating the issues were related more to injury than any sort of decline.
Wilson throws the prettiest deep ball in the NFL, can extend plays and thrives within the framework of the offense or making off-schedule throws. The Broncos have improved their offensive line in recent seasons and have the building blocks of a potent offense.
The Broncos currently boast wide receivers Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler, tight end Albert Okwuegbunam and young stud running back Javonte Williams. It’s a loaded offense that Wilson will spearhead.
Seattle didn’t plan on moving Wilson unless they got a transformative package in return. The Broncos made an offer they couldn’t refuse.
Taking on Lock as part of the deal gives Seattle at least one option at quarterback, with Geno Smith headed to free agency. But it leaves a massive question about the future under center. Head coach Pete Carroll wants no part of a rebuild, so where the Seahawks turn at QB will indicate how quickly they’ll be able to restack the deck in the rugged NFC West.
The Broncos had a playoff-ready roster outside of the quarterback. Now they have that Super Bowl champ to compete with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Derek Carr in a loaded AFC West.
Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic breaks it down.
In a blockbuster trade, the Seattle Seahawks pulled the plug on the Russell Wilson era, sending the veteran quarterback and a draft pick to the Denver Broncos in a deal that returns five picks and three players.
The deal
Denver gives up two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant and defensive lineman Shelby Harris in exchange for Wilson and a fourth-round pick.
Why they made the move
It’s pretty simple to tackle this from the Broncos’ perspective. When your team doesn’t have a quarterback, your priority is always to find one. And that’s where the Broncos were. Since Peyton Manning retired in 2015, they’ve had the following quarterbacks:
Trevor Siemian
Paxton Lynch
Brock Osweiler
Case Keenum
Drew Lock
Joe Flacco
Brandon Allen
Jeff Driskel
Brett Rypien
Teddy Bridgewater
Denver is in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Derek Carr. They were the clear have-nots. With Wilson, they’re at least now giving themselves a chance. And it’s not like the cupboard is bare. They have a solid group of wide receivers with upside in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. Javonte Williams is a promising young running back. And their goal now should be to upgrade what was a mostly mediocre offensive line in 2021.
Wilson is 33 years old. He did not miss a game in his first nine seasons in the NFL. Last year, he missed three. When he was healthy, Wilson completed 64.8% of his passes, averaged 7.8 yards per attempt and threw 25 touchdowns with six interceptions. The Broncos are taking a reasonable swing and banking on the fact that Wilson will not show signs of steep decline in the next two years.
This deal is much more difficult to make sense of from the Seahawks’ perspective. As outlined here a couple weeks ago, teams should prioritize offensive efficiency above all else. Of the 20 teams that have made the championship round in the last five years, 18 (90%) had an offense that finished in the top quartile (8th or better) in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
Said more simply: Building an efficient offense — which usually is dependent on quarterback, play-caller or both — will keep you in the mix year in and year out. If you don’t have an efficient offense, you’re going to have a tough, tough time achieving sustained success.
With Wilson, the Seahawks finished in the top quartile of offensive efficiency eight times in 10 seasons. Even last year, when Seattle went 7-10, they finished seventh in offensive efficiency. This is what every team should be chasing. The Seahawks had it, and now they have to start from scratch.
Last offseason, The Athletic’s Michael-Shawn Dugar, Mike Sando and Jayson Jenks reported on the rift between Wilson and the organization in terms of offensive approach. Ever since that report, a move like this seemed possible. But the timing from the Seahawks’ perspective is puzzling. Pete Carroll turns 71 in September. And now the team takes on a dead cap hit of $26 million by moving Wilson.
Making this move next year would have made a lot more sense. This offseason, we’ve seen Tom Brady and Sean Payton leave the NFC. The conference is wide open. The advanced stats suggest that the Seahawks were victims of some bad luck last year. Yes, they were 7-10, but that was with Wilson missing three games. There were 2-5 in one-score games and ranked eighth in overall DVOA. Why not pour some resources into the offensive line and take one more shot together in 2022? Would it have surprised anyone to see Seattle go 11-6 in 2022?
And wouldn’t this deal, or something similar, have been on the table next offseason? Given how hungry teams are for quarterback help, it seems like that would have been the case.
Even if Wilson was still unhappy with the offensive approach and the Seahawks didn’t want to extend him beyond 2023, they could have ridden it out for one more year. Instead, they decided to cash in on the draft picks now. But that leaves them with a gaping hole at quarterback.
Trade grade (Broncos): B+
The move comes with some risk. Over the past three seasons, among 42 quarterbacks with at least 500 pass plays, Wilson ranks 18th in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per play metric. He will give the Broncos a high floor for sure. But there’s no guarantee that Wilson gives the Broncos the upside they’re seeking. Nathaniel Hackett will have to show he’s capable of building a scheme that maximizes Wilson’s skill set. And GM George Paton will have to show that he’s capable of making shrewd roster moves now that the Denver will be operating with a shortage of draft capital.
Having said that, ultimately these trade grades come down to one question: Would I have done the deal? And the answer here is a resounding yes. The Broncos have an above-average roster, and this move gives them a chance to compete for Super Bowls. Their other options were to trade for a quarterback with less upside or go through the process of developing a rookie.
Wilson is signed for the next two years at $24 million and $27 million, respectively. The Broncos very well could look to extend him, but even so, those salaries represent a bargain, given that $40 million per year is now the starting point for above-average quarterbacks.
It might not work out, and they’re in a tough division and a tough conference. But Wilson makes them relevant. And given the information we have at this point in time, taking a swing on the upside with him represents a perfectly reasonable process.
Trade grade (Seahawks): D
Maybe I’m being harsh, but I just don’t like this move at all from Seattle’s perspective. If there’s another shoe to drop and the Seahawks makes a big move for a top-level quarterback with the assets they accumulated here, we’ll revisit their whole process.
But it goes back to what I mentioned above. When you have a clear path to building an efficient offense, you shouldn’t throw it away. The Seahawks have some very good players: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Bobby Wagner. But they do not have a great roster. Maybe they hit on all these new draft picks (unlikely) and replenish the roster. But even if that’s the case, one question will remain: What’s the plan at quarterback? And if there’s no great answer, nothing else really matters.
It’s easier than ever to find competency at quarterback. But competency has never mattered less. Unless you have a high-upside quarterback or a play-caller/schemer like Sean McVay who gives you a distinct edge, you’re going to have a really tough time competing. As of this writing, the Seahawks have neither.
To be clear, Wilson has had ups and downs over the past two seasons. But he always gave the offense a high floor with the potential for a high ceiling. Now what are the Seahawks hanging their hat on? Their defense has ranked 13th or worse for five consecutive seasons.
The compensation is perfectly fine. The Seahawks get two first rounders (including the ninth pick this year), two second rounders, two starting-caliber players and a backup quarterback. Had they run it back this year, come up short and moved on from Wilson next offseason, a move like this would have made complete sense. In many ways, 2023 would have been a natural separation point, given that Wilson would have been entering the final year of his deal.
Again, maybe the Seahawks have another move up their sleeve, but for now, it looks like they rushed to make this trade when they didn’t need to and are poised to take a significant step back. |
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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
WR MIKE WILLIAMS beats the tag to the tune of three years, $60 million. Michael Baca of NFL.com:
Mike Williams won’t be headed to free agency. Instead, the veteran wideout is getting paid to remain with the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chargers are signing Williams to a three-year, $60 million contract, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Tuesday, per a source. The deal includes $40 million guaranteed upon signing, Rapoport adds.
The team has since announced the news.
Williams reaches a new deal with the Bolts just ahead of Tuesday’s franchise tag deadline and stays with a blossoming offense headed by star quarterback Justin Herbert.
Selected by the Chargers with the No. 7 overall pick in 2017, Williams is coming off one of his best seasons statistically. The Chargers’ deep threat produced career-highs with 76 receptions and 1,146 receiving yards while adding nine touchdowns. Williams led the team in TDs, receiving yards and yards per reception for the Bolts in 2021.
According to Next Gen Stats, Williams has the sixth-most deep receiving yards (1,270) in the NFL since 2018 (deep reception equaling 20-plus air yards). Only Tyler Lockett, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams have had more.
Retaining one of the best deep threats in the NFL should help maintain one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. In 2021, the Chargers ranked in the top five in total offense (390.2 yards per game), passing offense (282.4 YPG) and points scored per game (27.9). |
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HOUSTON
The $35 million question:
@KevinColePFF
The Texans paid Watson $10.5M to watch games last year. Are they going to pay him $35M to do the same this season?
That’s because Friday is a big day. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Nearly a year after the first lawsuit against Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson began, a grand jury is poised to hear evidence in the criminal investigation sparked by 22 civil complaints that ultimately were filed.
Jenny Vrentas and Juliet Macur of the New York Times report that several women who have made criminal complaints against Watson for misconduct during massage therapy sessions have received subpoenas to testify on Friday, according to their lawyer, Tony Buzbee.
Watson’s lawyer, Rusty Hardin, told the Times that he is “delighted” that the grand jury will be addressing the matter on Friday, and that he hopes that a decision will be made that day.
“The free agency time is around the corner and we’ve wanted this decision to be made by then and it looks like they’re going to and I’m welcoming it,” Hardin told the Times. “There’s never been any crime here, no matter if you call it indecent assault or anything else. These are civil matters that belong in the civil courts.”
Watson also is scheduled to testify on Friday in the civil cases filed by plaintiffs who did not file criminal complaints against Watson. Hardin told the Times that Watson will invoke the Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination when testifying at a deposition convened by Buzbee.
A source with knowledge of the situation tells PFT that Buzbee refused to delay the deposition until Monday, given the possibility that the criminal cases will be concluded on Friday. The source also said that Hardin does not plan to seek intervention from the presiding judge to delay the deposition. Previously, the judge gave Hardin a mixed ruling that the depositions can proceed in the cases that don’t involve a criminal complaint, and that he’ll testify later in the cases that have criminal complaints pending.
Obviously, Hardin doesn’t want Watson to testify at all in the civil cases while the possibility of criminal prosecution is pending, since anything Watson says in the civil cases could then be used by the prosecutor within the confines of criminal charges.
It’s unknown whether the prosecutor will be inclined to push for one or more indictments of Watson. As the saying goes, a prosecutor can indict a ham sandwich. This is a product of the one-sided nature of the presentation of evidence. Conversely, a prosecutor can not indict a ham sandwich, if the prosecutor decides during secret proceedings to not press aggressively for charges.
As the quarterback carousel suddenly begins to spin, the possibility of Watson emerging from the current week with no criminal charges could set the stage for a long-awaited trade. The decision of Aaron Rodgers to stay put and the trade of Russell Wilson to the Broncos makes Watson the top available quarterback, for anyone seeking a veteran upgrade. |
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THIS AND THAT |
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THE QB GAP
Stephen Holder of The Athletic on the gap between the best quarterbacks and the rest:
As Tuesday’s Russell Wilson deal went down on a day filled with fireworks around the NFL, the precise details of the transaction slowly began to emerge.
As one high-ranking NFL executive took stock of it all, he offered a succinct and in-the-moment reaction to Seattle netting a massive haul of two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, tight end Noah Fant and two other players from Denver for the Seahawks’ nine-time Pro Bowl selection.
“Holy shit!” the executive said via text message.
Flashback to earlier in the day when it was revealed that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers had come to an accord that will keep the four-time Most Valuable Player in Green Bay, likely on a reworked contract that could make him the highest-paid player in the game.
Rodgers’ foreboding comments after January’s playoff exit left his team and the entire football world pondering whether the end was near for the 38-year-old.
“There’s obviously a lot of decisions to be made,” Rodgers said then.
Rodgers’ relative silence in the weeks since, save for a few nebulous statements after winning his latest MVP award last month, offered little additional insight.
So, what did the Packers do? They ramped up their efforts to keep him, showered him with love and prayed he’d return.
There’s an important singular takeaway from these two huge stories that, though they played out differently and were separated by thousands of miles, should not be lost.
It all served as a vivid reminder that success (and failure) in the NFL is determined by quarterback play more than ever. What that means is that NFL teams are increasingly lumped into one of two classifications: those with an elite franchise quarterback and those without one.
Where would you rather be? And what would you be willing to do to go from the latter group to the former? Tuesday provided some answers.
It’s no wonder some are willing to pay the price. Consider just how dramatically times have changed: Between the 1980 and 1985 seasons, Jim Plunkett, Ron Jaworski, David Woodley and Tony Eason made five Super Bowl starts. Remarkably, Plunkett — who threw 164 touchdowns versus 198 interceptions in his career — started and won two Super Bowls during that stretch. It is rare to see anything less than an elite quarterback in the Super Bowl these days, though the occasional appearance by a Joe Flacco or a Jared Goff provides notable exceptions to this rule.
This reality, brought about by years of rules changes and philosophical shifts, has turned the entire NFL on its head. Everything from strategy to the primary focus of player acquisition has been altered. There were seven running backs selected in the first round of the 1987 draft. Today? You’d have to comb through the past four NFL drafts to come up with seven first-round running-back selections.
Another example, just for kicks: There was a grand total of zero quarterbacks drafted in the first round in the 1984 and 1985 drafts. That kind of outcome is incomprehensible today. We’re living in an era when the 49ers last year traded three first-round picks and a third-round choice for the right to draft Trey Lance, all while they had a quarterback on their roster (Jimmy Garoppolo) who had started in a Super Bowl two years prior.
Viewed in that context, it’s a wonder the Seahawks didn’t get even more for Wilson.
For the most part, we’re lucky to be living in this era of football. Elite quarterback play is fun from an entertainment perspective. Who among us wouldn’t sign up for another Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen shootout like we saw in the just-completed playoffs? It’s particularly riveting if you’re a fan of either the Chiefs or Bills, the two teams who are eternally thankful to the football gods for blessing them with their young quarterbacks.
But what if you don’t have one?
“It is harder,” said Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer, whose team started Sam Darnold at quarterback for most of last season. “Everyone wants that No. 1 guy. I’d love to have that.”
But he doesn’t. If we’re being honest, most teams don’t.
That’s the rub. Success in today’s NFL is more dependent on quarterback play than at any time in history. And I’d argue that, in some respects, that’s not a great thing for the league.
Today’s game has produced a have-and-have-nots slate of teams where the Super Bowl seems mostly out of reach for those that lack a top-end quarterback. What’s distressing is that this is not only true for teams that draft horribly or are poorly coached. It’s also true for well-constructed teams like the Browns, Colts and Commanders, all of whom have suffered from underwhelming quarterback play. Cleveland and Indianapolis had a combined 12 Pro Bowl selections this season. What do they have to show for it? Nothing, as neither made the playoffs while their quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz, struggled in key moments. For other teams, quarterback performance is arguably the difference between being good and great. Teams like the Vikings and Titans come to mind here.
This is the reality that today’s NFL has wrought.
“Really, what we see now is it is very, very hard to win in the NFL without a blue-chip quarterback, it just is,” Ravens executive vice president and general manager Eric DeCosta said. “There are certainly going to be anomalies, but to think that we could win a Super Bowl like we did in 2000 with primarily a dominant defense, that’s very hard to do now. The game has changed, the rules have changed. The way that teams play has changed. The passing game is more important than ever.”
All of which raises an important question: What are the unintended consequences of the game as it exists today? Here are a few.
Teams get desperate
As you look at some of the recent aggressive trades involving quarterbacks — Wilson, Matthew Stafford, etc. — there is no reason to believe such moves will abate anytime soon.
Teams are understandably lining up for the right to mortgage chunks of their futures in the hopes of landing the next Mahomes or Allen. It’s not that they’re reckless. It’s just that they understand the alternative: Wallowing in quarterback purgatory, which often is a road to nowhere.
It might be a while before we know whether the 49ers are right about Lance. But with a strong roster that has reached both a Super Bowl and an NFC Championship Game since 2019, and knowing that elite quarterback play might help take them over the top, they moved ahead with last year’s bold move.
This will likely show up in this year’s draft, too. The 2022 quarterback class is viewed as underwhelming by many talent evaluators, but that won’t prevent multiple quarterbacks from being drafted in the first round if recent history is any indication.
The role of the quarterback is so closely tied to success in today’s game that it creates immense pressure on teams to take chances. That’s how the Colts ended up trading first- and third-round picks for Wentz coming off a season (2020) in which he was arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. They now appear poised to move on from him just one year later. This is also how the Jets found themselves investing two top-three picks in quarterbacks over three years.
Those teams know what you, the fan, also know: Quarterback performance today is the chief determinant of offensive success. Eight of the top 10 teams in scoring offense last season had clearly defined, high-end quarterbacks. The two exceptions were the Patriots (Mac Jones) and the Colts (Wentz), teams with consistent records on the personnel side. That being said, neither won a playoff game in 2021.
We can arrive at a similar conclusion using expected points added. Ten of the top 11 teams in EPA per pass attempt (the Raiders and Buccaneers tied for 10th) made the playoffs in 2021 and eight, arguably, had unquestioned franchise quarterbacks.
Expected points added/pass attempt, 2021
Bengals Joe Burrow 0.29
Packers Aaron Rodgers 0.28
49ers Jimmy Garappolo 0.27
Rams Matthew Stafford 0.26
Cowboys Dak Prescott 0.23
Chargers Justin Herbert 0.22
Chiefs Patrick Mahomes 0.21
Cardinals Kyler Murray 0.21
Patriots Mac Jones 0.2
Raiders Derek Carr 0.19
Buccaneers Tom Brady 0.19
The bottom line is desperate teams start chasing quarterbacks, even at the risk of forsaking other critical areas. And if they fail, the margin of error is practically nil because of the nature of today’s game.
This only creates a bigger gap between the haves and have-nots.
Competitive imbalance
You don’t have to use Super Bowls as the metric for the competitiveness of teams with questionable quarterback situations. All you really have to do is use last season’s playoff results as a guide. Just one of the teams that advanced in the most recent postseason — the 49ers — had what can be described as a questionable quarterback situation. The Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Buccaneers and Rams had elite quarterbacks under center and thrived.
So, is any of this good for the NFL? Sure, the league is still generating record profits. But if you’re a fan of the Saints (new territory for you guys), the Colts, Commanders, Browns and teams with otherwise viable rosters but concerns at quarterback, do you feel like your team has a legitimate shot?
The bottom-feeding teams in the NFL often have various fundamental problems, but they typically have one thing in common: They lack elite quarterback play. Then, when one of those teams acquires a high-end quarterback, we tend to see the difference that singular acquisition can make. Joe Burrow didn’t single-handedly turn around the Bengals. But are you willing to bet Cincinnati would be on a similar trajectory with a lesser quarterback?
The obvious reply here is that teams that fail to acquire top quarterbacks suffer the consequences of that failure and that’s on them. That’s certainly true. But there is a pretty big disparity in the NFL today between the top quarterbacks and the rest. There are only so many elite passers to be found, and there are more suitors than candidates.
When you don’t have one, you’re forced to get creative.
“You don’t need to have the elite guy,” Fitterer said. “And I think you’ve seen that over time. But you need to surround them with players that can compensate for maybe some of their weaknesses.”
Translation: You either have an elite quarterback who can lead you to wins or you have a quarterback whom you must win in spite of.
Decision-making revolves around QBs
The quarterback landscape and the offensive focus in today’s game have serious implications for the individuals who run NFL teams.
Just consider who actually gets consideration for head-coaching jobs today. Increasingly, teams are looking to offensive-minded coaches, not because they’re better coaches but because they are seen as equipped to take teams where they need to go in this era.
In the most recent hiring cycle, six of the nine new hires for head coach were men with an offensive background. Five of those had a history of working specifically with quarterbacks. The remaining three hires have defensive backgrounds, but two of them — the Saints’ Dennis Allen and the Texans’ Lovie Smith — were promoted from within their organizations.
None of this is intended as criticism. Doug Pederson, himself a former quarterback, makes perfect sense for the Jaguars given their young quarterback (Trevor Lawrence) around whom the rest of the team is being built. Nathaniel Hackett, the former Packers offensive coordinator, is easily explained as the Broncos’ hire considering the team hasn’t ranked in the top 20 in scoring since 2015 — Peyton Manning’s final season (Hackett’s job got a lot easier with Tuesday’s trade). The question is whether we’d see a greater variety of coaches ascending to these roles if the game had evolved differently.
A team’s quarterback status can also directly have an impact on the fate of head coaches and general managers. What if Mike McDaniel makes the Dolphins a viable team in the next couple of years but fails to get more out of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa? How will that reflect on McDaniel and will it ultimately influence the team’s decisions on his future?
Tangentially, there are implications for the quarterbacks themselves. We can debate whether it’s beneficial for young quarterbacks to play right away or to be groomed slowly, but the expectations placed upon them today make it difficult to wait. Despite playing perhaps the most difficult position in team sports, many rookie quarterbacks are immediately thrust into horrible predicaments.
Twenty-four of the 33 quarterbacks selected in the first round in the past 10 drafts started a majority of their team’s games as a rookie. As a consequence, quarterbacks are being drafted higher and being asked to play earlier than ever. It’s a combination that, theoretically, will lead to more draft busts.
At that point, there’s both good and bad news. The good news is you might not have to worry about enduring another quarterback search. The bad news is you might no longer be employed and your successor will handle that search instead.
And at the rate things are going, there’s a good chance it’ll end with a huge bounty being traded away for a quarterback that might or might not work out. |
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