The Daily Briefing Wednesday, May 11, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

One of the NFL’s most storied rivalries and two of the game’s most celebrated quarterbacks will be featured in a Week 10 clash on FOX.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will host Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 13 at Lambeau Field.

TAMPA BAY

QB KYLE TRASK will not move up to #2 on the Bucs depth chart anytime soon per QB Coach Clyde Christensen via Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:

@JennaLaineESPN

Bucs quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen when asked if Kyle Trask will have the chance to compete as the backup QB: “It’s more of a learning curve. I don’t see him competing with Gabbert this year. … I see Gabbert being the backup and Kyle being the developmental guy.”

@JennaLaineESPN

“He knows his time is coming,” Clyde Christensen said of Kyle Trask. Very interesting that Christensen believes he won’t compete for the backup job this year when Tom Brady is only under contract for one more year.

This:

@ThePewterPlank

The Bucs can talk about the development of Kyle Trask all day long. Them not seeing him as a competitor to Blaine Gabbert for the backup role after a year on the roster is not good.

ARIZONA

Receivers coach Shawn Jefferson gets a promotion.  Darren Urban of AzCardinals.com:

Kliff Kingsbury often talks about his never-ending need to improve. That goes for the evolution of his coaching staff as well.

Wide receivers coach Shawn Jefferson was promoted with the additional title of associate head coach in his second season with the club. He joins Jeff Rodgers, special teams coordinator and assistant head coach, as staff members with head coach in their titles aside from Kingsbury.

It was one of a handful of coaching moves officially announced by the team on Tuesday.

Kingsbury’s construction of the offensive side of the coaching staff was also altered. While Kingsbury does not have an overall offensive coordinator per se, he promoted Cam Turner and Spencer Whipple to co-pass game coordinators. Last year, Kingsbury made offensive line coach Sean Kugler his run-game coordinator.

Matt Burke was finally announced as the new defensive line coach, replacing the departed Brentson Buckner, who left for the same job in Jacksonville. Burke, who has been in the NFL since 2004, was the game management coach last season with the Jets, and the run game coordinator and defensive line coach for the Eagles in 2020.

Mike Bercovici, previously a coaching assistant, was officially added to the coaching staff as an offensive assistant. Also officially joining the coaching staff is long-time Kingsbury right-hand man Kenny Bell, whose was promoted with a new title of chief of staff/offensive assistant.

Offensive assistant Jerry Sullivan, who worked with the wide receivers, has retired.

BALTIMORE

Could WR JARVIS LANDRY be heading to the Ravens?

Jarvis Landry’s days in the AFC North might not be done just yet.

The Baltimore Ravens are interested in Landry, a former Cleveland Brown and Miami Dolphin, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday on NFL Total Access.

Released by the Browns back in March after the five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver and the club couldn’t agree on a restructured contract or find a trade partner, Landry landed on NFL.com‘s Top 101 list of free agents at No. 26 and has remained there since.

Landry joining Baltimore makes all kinds of sense in the aftermath of the 2022 NFL Draft. The Ravens shipped Marquise Brown west to the Arizona Cardinals, opening a spot for a No. 1 wide receiver, which Landry has filled throughout much of his eight-season career.

Landry previously visited with the New Orleans Saints this offseason, but their selection of Chris Olave in the draft could be a sign they’ve moved on, and there had been rumblings of Landry returning to the Browns, but that door might be closed, too.

Surprisingly, Landry isn’t the only high-profile wideout remaining in free agency, as he’s joined by good friend Odell Beckham, Will Fuller and future Hall of Famer Julio Jones. Perhaps Landry’s free-agency odyssey will end with a Baltimore arrival.

CLEVELAND

Sam Monson of ProFootballFocus.com looks at the state of play for QB BAKER MAYFIELD:

The 2022 NFL Draft passed without any significant movement from the veteran quarterbacks still expected to be available before the season begins. Most notably, Baker Mayfield remains in Cleveland because no team wants to trade significant resources to be on the hook for his fifth-year option price of around $18 million.

Mayfield has become something of a pariah after tearing his shoulder early last year and battling through the worsening injury all season rather than shutting it down and getting surgery. He not only cost himself any chance at a monster contract extension with the Browns but has lowered his standing in the eyes of the rest of the league. At this point, nobody is interested in rolling the dice on a capable starting quarterback for $18 million this season.

Mayfield’s brash personality and confrontational tendencies can be viewed as a necessary part of his ultra-competitive makeup when things are going well. But they tend to come off as petulance and a lack of maturity when things unravel.

Let’s examine Mayfield’s career to this point and which teams might be interested in the signal-caller’s services, especially if the price continues to drop.

MAYFIELD IN THE NFL

Mayfield’s four seasons in the NFL have been a strange ride. His impact on the Browns was immediate: He set the rookie record for touchdowns in his first season despite not starting Week 1. Mayfield was such a clear upgrade over Tyrod Taylor that the franchise immediately deployed as much of the resources it had been stockpiling to build around him.

Year 2 became the debacle of the Freddie Kitchens tenure, and Mayfield’s play regressed, as did the fortunes of the team overall. Kitchens was kicked to the curb and yet another new regime entered.

The following year was Mayfield’s best, and it set him up to enter the 2021 season with sky-high expectations for both him and the team. But then the shoulder injury happened.

All told, Mayfield owns the 17th-best PFF grade of any quarterback since entering the NFL. Throw out the season fighting through an injured shoulder and he climbs to 10th. If you believe the Kitchens year also isn’t representative, then he jumps another two spots.

The point is that Mayfield shouldn’t be seen as a bad quarterback as much someone unable to set a stable baseline through four seasons. Even folding all of his worst play into the mix, he ranks right around the league average, which would be a massive upgrade for multiple teams still in need of a quarterback. Mayfield’s worst season — one in which he was dealing with a major shoulder injury — is pretty analogous to Drew Lock’s best season.

Since coming into the league, only Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes have a higher big-time throw rate than Mayfield (6.0%), but those players have a turnover-worthy play rate approaching half of his. Mayfield makes a lot of big throws, but they are offset by a lot of big mistakes relative to elite passers. Those mistakes are the issue with his game — and they live long in the memory of anybody watching him play.

But even factoring those problems into the analysis, you end up with an average quarterback in terms of qualitative grading or objective production.

THE CONTRACT SITUATION

Mayfield’s biggest issue is his contract situation. A year ago he was working his way toward a big extension with Cleveland, but that was shelved when his play fell off and scrapped entirely when the team made a move for Deshaun Watson.

Now Mayfield sits on the cost-controlled, one-year, fifth-year option of a former first-round pick, but his cheap years are over. If he moves to a new team and plays well, that team is on the hook for a new contract — or the muddy waters of franchise tags and short-term guarantees.

There has been so much inconsistency to Mayfield’s game that even a good year isn’t going to make any team comfortable enough to hand him a monster new contract. So any path forward is going to navigate the bumpy waters of limited guarantees and commitment, which isn’t exactly a recipe for a happy quarterback relationship.

Unfortunately for Mayfield, he has managed to land right in the middle of a new zone of quarterback purgatory where his play has been good enough to warrant a starting position but not good enough to command a huge second contract. The surplus value in his play exists only when he is on a cheap deal, and as soon as that moves to a higher figure, his play needs to show a consistent jump to the next level to offset that additional cost.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The most obvious destination for Mayfield is now Seattle. The Seahawks went into the draft without a viable starter and used precisely none of their draft picks to select a quarterback.

Drew Lock and Geno Smith are presumably vying for that starting spot, and neither player has shown the ability to hit even average quarterback play over a full season. Smith’s best year in terms of PFF grading came last season (73.9) and involved just 202 snaps. Lock has never had a PFF season grade above 65.0.

Seattle is in the midst of a post-Russell Wilson rebuild, and it’s difficult to know where quarterback fits into their plans. But Mayfield represents an obvious and significant upgrade over the status quo if they have any designs on winning in 2022.

The Seahawks are the one team on the market that should be interested in Mayfield even at his current price tag in terms of contract and trade, but only if they are interested in winning games in 2022 and believe that the best version of his play could be a viable medium- to long-term for them.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Panthers came out of the draft with a new quarterback without using the No. 6 overall pick on one, capitalizing on the slide of the top passers to select Matt Corral in the third round. Corral will likely battle Sam Darnold for the starting job in training camp, but could the Panthers maximize their chances of viability at the position by adding Mayfield, whose track record is superior to either player?

They’re likely not interested unless the price tag changes, so the Browns would have to work on a way to eat a significant chunk of Mayfield’s contract if they expect to get any kind of trade out of the Panthers. Carolina investing more draft capital to move up to get Corral makes that even less likely. The team is much more of an option of Mayfield gets cut and hits the open market at a fraction of the cost.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Don’t rule out the Texans as a possible landing spot. It was reported during the 2018 draft that the New England Patriots loved Mayfield and would have been interested in trading up to take him if he had slid a little. But that became a moot point when the Browns selected him No. 1 overall.

The rebuilding project in Houston was in a holding pattern until they traded away Deshaun Watson, but now it has started in earnest. While they have done little to suggest they will upgrade on Davis Mills this season, their personnel moves thus far have been all about chasing high-ceiling players.

You could certainly argue that if the Texans were in any way interested in Mayfield he would have been folded into the Watson trade, but they might have preferred to see how things played out with the Browns. His asking price is only going down the longer the situation drags on.

Houston is probably more interested should he be cut, but Nick Caserio may be tempted to flip a late round pick just to roll the dice on his potential, particularly if the Browns can be convinced to sweeten the pot in terms of his contract.

THE BACKUP OPTIONS

If Mayfield is finally cut, half the league likely enters the market for him as a backup option.

At the market rate for a starting quarterback, Mayfield’s surplus value is in real debate, but as a backup option making backup money, he would represent one of the best value players in the NFL. He is a capable starter and would be a phenomenal insurance policy for an entrenched starter if a team believes he wouldn’t be a disruptive or disgruntled presence in the locker room.

Ultimately, Mayfield can count himself unfortunate to be standing without a chair as the music stops this offseason. He has been up and down across four seasons in the NFL, but his mean play has been average among league starters. Plus, he has a lot of very valid excuses to explain why it hasn’t been even higher.

If Mayfield wants any chance to start in 2022, he should be doing everything in his power to convince the Seahawks that he can be an answer for them in the future. Otherwise he may have to resign himself to a backup role that will need a little bit of luck to find an opportunity to show he deserves a second chance to start in the league.

HOUSTON

Jordan Schultz:

@Schultz_Report

Breaking: FA DE Jerry Hughes is signing with the #Texans, per source.

Hughes has missed just one game during the last decade — while amassing two double-digit sack seasons and 82 TFLs in his career.

It’s also a return home for Hughes — a Houston native who starred at TCU.

JACKSONVILLE

PK JOSH LAMBO was mistreated, by 21^st century standards by Coach Urban Meyer.  Now, he wants to be paid in full, plus more, for missing kicks.  Rick Stroud in the Tampa Bay Times:

Kicker Josh Lambo has filed a lawsuit against the Jacksonville Jaguars seeking his $3.5 million salary for 2021, plus damages for emotional distress. The lawsuit says Lambo’s performance suffered as a result of being kicked and verbally abused by then-head coach Urban Meyer.

The lawsuit, filed in the 4th Judicial Circuit Court in Duval County on Tuesday, claims Meyer and the Jaguars created a hostile work environment. Since Lambo reported the incident to the Jaguars’ legal counsel, his subsequent release violated Florida’s Private Sector Whistle Blower’s Act, the lawsuit claims.

Lambo, the fourth-most accurate placekicker in NFL history, missed a field-goal attempt in each of the Jaguars’ first two preseason games. In a practice before the final exhibition game against the Cowboys in August, Lambo says he was in a lunge position when Meyer approached him, kicked him in the leg and said, ‘Hey Dips–t, make your f–king kicks!’”

Lambo says he told Meyer to never strike him again, but the Meyer responded with, “I’m the head ball coach, I’ll kick you whenever the f–k I want.”

The lawsuit says Lambo verbally reported the incident immediately through his agent, Richard Irvin, who contacted the Jaguars’ legal counsel the day after Meyer kicked him.

Irvin and the Jaguars confirmed to the Tampa Bay Times on Dec. 15 that the legal counsel was contacted and offered Lambo a chance to meet with them. Lambo said, however, that he has “no recollection of being able to speak with the Jags’ legal team.”

 “Jaguars legal counsel indeed acknowledged and responded immediately to the query made by Josh Lambo’s agent Friday, Aug. 27, 2021,” the Jaguars said in a statement to the Times. “Counsel offered to speak with Josh, or to assist Josh in speaking with coaching or any other football personnel, if he was comfortable with her sharing the information. Any suggestion otherwise is blatantly false.”

Hours after the Times reported the kicking incident in December, the Jaguars fired Meyer, ending his tumultuous NFL tenure after 13 games.

An employer physically striking an employee at work, then threatening to do so again in response to resistance is illegal under Florida civil and criminal law, the lawsuit claims.

Meyer, speaking prior to his firing, denied that the incident happened the way Lambo described it.

“Josh’s characterization of me and this incident is completely inaccurate, and there are eyewitnesses to refute his account,” Meyer said. “(General manager) Trent (Baalke) and I met with him on multiple occasions to encourage his performance, and this was never brought up. I was fully supportive of Josh during his time with the team and wish him nothing but the best.”

Within a day of the kicking incident, Lambo said Meyer threatened to release him, saying, “You’re the first player I’ve ever let speak to me that way in my career, and if you do it again, you’re gone.”

The lawsuit claims the incident affected Lambo’s ability to sleep, practice and perform his job the way he had during his seven NFL seasons.

“Mr. Meyer’s hostility had the intended effect on Mr. Lambo, resulting in Mr. Lambo uncharacteristically missing difficult and long kicks from the ranges of fifty-five yards, fifty-two yards and fifty-eight yards,” according to the lawsuit.

Lambo was released by the Jaguars on Oct. 19.

The lawsuit notes that the Jaguars won only two games in 2021. “Multiple skilled players missed assignments, dropped passes or otherwise failed to perform on-field directly resulting in the Jaguars’ game losses. However, Mr. Lambo, the player who objected to the unlawful activity of Mr. Meyer, was the only player Mr. Meyer and the Defendant (the Jaguars) cut from the roster.”

Lambo is seeking a jury trial and hopes to be awarded a judgement for back pay owed from his 2021 salary with interest as well as “compensation for any special damages sustained as emotional stress and reputational harm and litigation fees,” among other costs.

Attached to the lawsuit is a request for documentation that includes all communications between Jaguars employees relating to reports made by others in the organization of unprofessional, bullying, abusive or toxic behavior by Meyer in the workplace. It also asks for documentation of Meyer’s termination, as well as any documents that show the basis for his firing was related to his workplace behavior and treatment of employees, coaches or players during 2021.

We doubt that Meyer “intended” to make Lambo miss kicks.

NEWS

BROADCAST NEWS

Andrew Marchand of the New York Post sez QB TOM BRADY will bring in $375 million from his FOX deal:

To understand the 10-year, $375 million Tom Brady deal with Fox Sports, you have to appreciate how the network has looked at itself since its inception and what it would take to entice the greatest quarterback of all time into the broadcast booth.

Fox Sports has always considered itself bigger and badder than anyone else since its inception in 1993, when Rupert Murdoch swiped the NFL from CBS and then paid John Madden $8 million, more than any NFL player at the time, to be Fox’s lead analyst.

Now well-established, three decades later, it prides itself on having Hall of Famers throughout its Fox NFL Sunday lineup. So its thoughts were big and bold when it considered how to replace Troy Aikman, especially after ESPN had just out-Foxed Fox.

Not only did ESPN grab Aikman, but, more importantly, the face of Fox, Joe Buck. It was a Fox move, adding up to a combined price tag of $33.5 million per year.

Fox had a no-brainer replacement for Buck in Kevin Burkhardt as its top NFL play-by-player, but its next best analyst was former All-Pro tight end Greg Olsen.

Olsen may be the next big thing — and he very well now could be Fox’s top analyst next season as Brady is not scheduled to start with Fox until after he stops playing — but Olsen is not considered the greatest player of all time.

Meanwhile, Brady not only had interest from Fox, but also ESPN, according to sources.

ESPN, though, already has Buck and Aikman scheduled to start weekly this “Monday Night Football” season and it has Brady’s top rival, Peyton Manning, and his brother, Eli, for 10 Mondays a year, so it did not have room for Brady on NFL game broadcasts, where network executives assign the most value.

Fox Sports, though, had a need, and its big and bold attitude built around Hall of Famers. There is no telling what type of analyst Brady will be, but he is the greatest quarterback of all time. The NFL is said to have wanted Fox to go for a big play, not run some conservative offense.

Besides Olsen, Fox could have turned to NBC’s Drew Brees, another all-time quarterback. NBC and Brees seem as if they may be willing to break up after one year.

While Brees satisfies the big-name criteria, the fact NBC and he are so willing to split had to be a red flag. Another potential Hall of Famer, Phillip Rivers, had no interest. No matter what, none of them are Brady.

So there Brady was, initially retired when these talks first began. It seemed a longshot at first. It was mentioned in articles, but not something that seemed likely because Fox had shown fiscal responsibility by letting Aikman walk for Tony Romo money of $18 million a year.

When Brady unretired to rejoin the Bucs, Brady fell off the radar as sports media types burned up my phone as we tried to figure out what Fox was up to.

Then on a Tuesday earnings call, Fox’s CEO Lachlan Murdoch announced Brady would be the network’s No. 1 game analyst upon retirement from the NFL. He would also serve as an ambassador in respect to client and promotional initiatives. Several reports about the deal followed, including The Post’s report of 10 years and $375 million.

 “What has been reported isn’t an accurate description of the deal and we have not released details beyond what was disclosed on our quarterly earnings call,” Fox corporate spokesman Brian Nick said.

Nick declined to say what was inaccurate.

While sources reiterated the outlay is 10 years and $375 million, the bottom line is that the NFL is the most powerful programming this country has ever had.

Just last year, 75 of the top 100 shows were NFL games. The NFL just completed new 11-year deals with Fox, ESPN, NBC, CBS and Amazon for $110 billion.

Brady, despite being the game’s greatest quarterback, has made a mere $333 million, according to Spotrac, over his 23-year playing career, many times taking less to help his team’s salary cap. The post-playing career scoreboard for the all-time best athletes is often the bank account, and Brady is already up, let’s call it, 28-3.

Oh, and there is this: There seems to be a reasonable chance he could be a broadcaster before he ends his time at quarterback.

While Brady’s Fox Sports contract does not start until after his playing career, let’s say the Bucs are eliminated from the playoffs. Why couldn’t Brady jump in the booth?

Fox has the Super Bowl two of the next three years, including this coming February.

Come this season, Brady, 45 by then, may be playing in the game or talking about it. Either way, he is going to be on your television screen every Sunday. Maybe forever.

Richard Dietsch of The Athletic analyzes Brady’s move:

I was on the phone this morning with someone in the sports television business who has a great resume and understands how to build broadcast teams, including NFL broadcast teams. I asked this person about the stunning news that broke Tuesday morning that Tom Brady will join Fox Sports as its lead NFL analyst following his playing career, a deal Fox Corporation executive chairman and CEO Lachlan Murdoch called a “long-term agreement.”

My questions:

How can this be successful?

How can this fail?

“It’s successful if Tom wants to put the work in and learn this craft,” said the person, who has deep roots in sports TV production. “Until now he’s been able to control everything about his very limited but successful foray into media, whether it be his self-produced documentaries or social media posts. Now, he’ll be jumping into the same pool as the rest of sports television analysts and he’ll be judged accordingly, but receive even more scrutiny. Tom gets all this and I would not bet against him.”

How can it go south?

“It fails if he has so many other things in his life and he can’t make the full commitment to learning this craft and being great,” said the source. “With all the outside endeavors he’s enjoyed through his football career, he shut them all down when it was time to train and play. Along with his family, football came first. It will need to be similar here. But it’s a brilliant move by FOX. Not sure what they paid, but they significantly upgraded their NFL presentation.”

Multiple people in the business, including those who negotiate these kinds of deals, all predicted Brady’s salary will surpass $20 million annually at a minimum. That would make him the highest-paid sports broadcaster in America. Troy Aikman is ESPN’s highest-paid on-air employee, with a $90 million contract over five years. CBS’s Tony Romo is in the same salary range as Aikman.

The last four months have been the most bonkers sports broadcasting stretch in history, featuring talent moves with reverberations at multiple networks. ESPN chairman Jimmy Pitaro went Oceans Eleven on Fox’s NFL booth to land Aikman and Joe Buck as ESPN’s new “Monday Night Football” team. In March Amazon Prime Video formally announced that Al Michaels, the longtime voice of Sunday Night Football, and ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit had joined Prime Video to call its upcoming exclusive coverage of “Thursday Night Football.” Joe Davis replaced Buck as the voice of the World Series. Kevin Burkhardt replaced Buck as Fox’s new No 1. NFL voice. Mike Tirico replaced Michaels as the lead broadcaster of Sunday Night Football. (Step right up and spin the wheel for your new broadcast team.)

Now add the Brady move to the silly season. “Stunning” is the correct word. Not that Brady wanting to be involved in sports broadcasting in some way is surprising — that was foreseeable, given his interests in Hollywood and media — but for Brady to commit to Fox Sports for a full season of games that includes the grind of travel and everything else that comes with that job is not something most people in the industry expected. I will say I was struck during Brady’s appearance last October during “Monday Night Football with Peyton and Eli” by his ability to be self-deprecating and his comfort in joking on-air. Flashes of self-deprecating humor from a player or coach is generally a trait that I think portends future success as a broadcaster.

It’s a bold move for Fox, but it comes with something that can’t be duplicated: They just hired the most famous football player on planet Earth, and the tune-in factor early will be massive, as will Brady’s ability to be used at promotional corporate outings. Most Fox Sports staffers were only informed about Brady after Murdoch’s announcement, including those who would work behind the scenes with him. Top management kept things very tight here.

Fox Sports historically swings big on talent hires. John Madden is the patron saint of this, but there are plenty of others over the decades — Jeff Gordon, Greg Norman, Pete Rose, Alex Rodriguez. Once upon a time, Fox swung for the fences by making Gus Johnson the face of its global soccer coverage. The Brady move fits into the modus operandi. One of the few remaining questions is who will be the No. 1 NFL analyst for Fox this season but I can’t see how it’s not Greg Olsen at this point. As one well-connected Fox Sports staffer told me: Top management looked at their NFL analyst roster last year as Aikman and Olsen in the top tier, and then others in tiers below. I asked the sports television source: Do they have to sell the move to Olsen as holding Brady’s seat, or does that not matter?

“You tell Greg he has a great opportunity to build his resume, better than anywhere else currently, and focus on being great,” said the source. “But truly it doesn’t matter.”

That’s correct. What matters long-term is that Fox has landed the most famous football player in America — and that gives its NFL production a ton of places to go. Fox wins the press release today, and that will extend up until Brady’s first couple of games. After that, Brady will only be as good as the work he puts into the job.

– – –

Richard Sherman may have a landing spot at Amazon.  Daniel Kaplan of The Athletic:

Former Seahawks, 49ers and Buccaneers defensive back Richard Sherman is in talks to join Amazon’s NFL coverage for the 2022 NFL season, a source confirmed to The Athletic.

The NFL Network’s Ian Rappoport reported that Sherman will still consider offers from teams to play as well.

Sherman played five games last season with Tampa Bay, collecting one interception and a fumble recovery. Prior to his brief stint with the Buccaneers, he played three seasons with the 49ers and seven with the Seahawks, winning a Super Bowl with that franchise after the 2013 season.

Throughout his career, Sherman has been named to five Pro Bowls and earned three first-team All-Pro nods.

Amazon has already invested heavily in its NFL coverage, announcing in March that Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit joined Prime Video to call its exclusive coverage of “Thursday Night Football.”

2023 DRAFT

Todd McShay of ESPN.com fires off his too early 2023 Mock Draft:

Then there is the draft order, which I did not decide. We opted to project the order using the inverse of Super Bowl odds from Caesars Sportsbook, though we broke some ties and tweaked the end of the order to ensure seven teams from each conference in the playoffs. That puts Houston on the clock to get things going in Round 1.

Note: Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk. Traded picks are shown below as well.

1. Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State*

The Texans believe in quarterback Davis Mills, but if they actually end up picking No. 1 next April, something went terribly awry for Mills during his sophomore season. Stroud has a big arm, completing 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 yards, 44 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 2021. The third-year sophomore has only 12 career starts, though, so all eyes will be on him this season.

2. Detroit Lions

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama*

Detroit wisely focused on the rest of its roster last week, but it will likely have to find its franchise quarterback in 2023 and has a prime chance to do so at No. 2 with Young still on the board. A former five-star recruit, Young is only 6-foot but has solid accuracy and plenty of mobility in the pocket. And he clearly has chemistry with receiver Jameson Williams, one of the Lions’ first-round picks this year, considering nearly a third of Young’s 4,872 passing yards in 2021 went Williams’ way. Jared Goff’s dead money dips to just $10 million next offseason, making the Lions’ QB easier to move on from.

3. New York Jets

Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama*

Anderson is probably the best player in the 2023 draft class and is here at No. 3 only because the teams picking at Nos. 1 and 2 need quarterbacks. The 6-foot-4, 243-pounder is a special player with elite traits and great burst to the quarterback. He led the nation in sacks (17.5), tackles for loss (34.5) and pressures (79) last year. Pairing Anderson with Jermaine Johnson II (a first-rounder this year) could give New York one of the least expensive yet best overall edge tandems in the NFL.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State*

If you don’t know the name yet, go watch some Rose Bowl highlights. Smith-Njigba caught 15 passes for 347 yards (a bowl game record) and three touchdowns in Ohio State’s win against Utah — putting him over 1,600 receiving yards for the season. It’s very possible he is a better prospect than Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave, who both just went in the top 11 picks. The Jags signed Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in March, but they still need a true WR1 for Trevor Lawrence. JSN can be that guy.

5. Atlanta Falcons

Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia*

Another Georgia defender? The 6-foot-3, 310-pounder is extremely disruptive and would help shore up Atlanta’s run defense while providing a pass-rush spark from the interior. And yes, Grady Jarrett just signed an extension, but he will be 30 years old when the draft comes back around. Carter is the best player available here and a difference-maker.

As for quarterback, it’s a very possible direction for the Falcons. But Stroud and Young are off the board, and I get the sense that they would like to develop Desmond Ridder and give him a chance if there isn’t another clear and obvious upgrade on the table.

6. Carolina Panthers

Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida*

The Panthers, however, should start scouting the 2023 signal-callers. I’m not so sure they view Matt Corral as a long-term option, and Sam Darnold will be off the books after this season. Plus, Carolina could have a new regime in place, especially if it’s picking this early again. Now, Richardson is a huge projection — the 6-foot-4, 236-pound passer played in just eight games and started once last year — and has some turnover issues. But he’s extremely talented and poised for a breakout season in his first as a full-time starter.

7. Chicago Bears

Jordan Addison, WR, Pittsburgh*

Addison entered the transfer portal, so where he’ll be suiting up this season is still up in the air. He was among the best receivers in college football last season with 100 catches for 1,593 yards and 17 trips to the end zone. The Bears opted to wait until Round 3 to draft a receiver (Velus Jones Jr.) and still need a legitimate outside starter opposite Darnell Mooney.

8. New York Giants

Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

The Giants didn’t pick up Daniel Jones’ fifth-year option, which leaves the QB seat up for grabs next season. Levis needs to find more consistency, but he has a live arm and a big 6-foot-3, 232-pound frame. He has thrived in the quick game at Kentucky, with a lot of run-pass options and screen-type stuff, but there are some Josh Allen-like traits here for new Giants coach Brian Daboll. Oh, and Levis connected with receiver Wan’Dale Robinson — whom the Giants drafted in Round 2 this year — 104 times last season.

9. Seattle Seahawks

Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami*

Van Dyke didn’t consistently play like a first-rounder in nine starts last season, but the 6-foot-4, 224-pounder has the talent of a future franchise passer. The third-year sophomore just needs to take the next step this year. Seattle GM John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll seem to still legitimately like Drew Lock’s potential as an NFL starter, but if the Seahawks have another disappointing season and another top-10 pick, they could be in the market for an upgrade.

10. Washington Commanders

Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama*

After a four-interception freshman year at LSU, Ricks missed most of 2021 with an injured shoulder and then transferred to Alabama. He’s a smooth press corner who can take away an opponent’s No. 1 receiver. The Commanders’ top two corners — William Jackson III and Kendall Fuller — are both under contract for only two more years, and the team’s pass defense has struggled, so adding a playmaker on the outside makes a lot of sense. One more note here: Ricks was arrested on Monday for speeding and possession of marijuana.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers

Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State*

Only the Dolphins had a worse pass block win rate than the Steelers last season (48.8%), and I don’t think Pittsburgh did enough to fix the line. When it decides to turn the offense’s keys over to new quarterback Kenny Pickett, the protection has to be there. Johnson has 13 career starts (all at right guard) and allowed only one sack last season. He will slide outside to left tackle this year.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)

Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia*

I thought Philadelphia might look at a cornerback in Round 1 this year, but the long-term spot opposite Darius Slay remains open — and Slay is currently primed to hit free agency in 2024. Ringo broke up eight passes and picked off two in 2021 as part of the dominant Bulldogs defense. One of those interceptions was a memorable one in the College Football Playoff national title game.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern*

Skoronski already has a lot of experience (21 starts), and the 6-foot-4, 294-pound lineman has the makings of a future franchise tackle, as long as he tacks on more weight. Las Vegas needs another bookend for the line opposite Kolton Miller.

14. Minnesota Vikings

Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson*

The Vikings had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season and didn’t draft a defensive tackle this year, and Dalvin Tomlinson is entering the final year of his contract. Bresee suffered a torn ACL in September, but he’s primed to return for a big 2022 campaign.

15. New England Patriots

Noah Sewell, ILB, Oregon*

The brother of 2021 first-rounder Penei Sewell, Noah Sewell can impact multiple areas of the game. The 6-foot-3, 251-pound linebacker had 110 tackles, four sacks and six pass breakups last season. And the Patriots are still looking for a leader in the middle of their defense.

16. Miami Dolphins

Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson*

The Dolphins tied for fifth in sacks last season and just re-signed Emmanuel Ogbah, but Murphy would be another playmaker off the edge who can get home on opposing QBs. He has 11.5 sacks over two seasons at Clemson and looks like a future impact player at the next level.

17. Tennessee Titans

Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame*

Mayer finished his sophomore season with 71 catches (third among tight ends) and 840 receiving yards (fourth). He has tremendous 6-foot-4, 251-pound size and good hands. The Titans would love a playmaking tight end like Mayer for quarterback Ryan Tannehill — or Malik Willis, should the Titans make that move going into 2023.

18. Indianapolis Colts

Derick Hall, DE, Auburn

Hall broke out in 2021, recording nine sacks and 13 tackles for loss in his first season as a full-time starter. Will he take another step in 2022? The Colts are coming off a 33-sack season, and while they traded for Yannick Ngakoue and should see more from Kwity Paye in his second year, you can never have enough productive pass-rushers.

19. Philadelphia Eagles

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas*

Zero running backs were taken in Round 1 this year, but I expect we’ll return to seeing at least one come off the board on Day 1 next April. After going cornerback earlier, Philly could look to spark the run game here. At 6-foot and 214 pounds, Robinson is a unique talent both as a runner and receiver. He piled up 1,127 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns last season, but he also caught 26 passes for 295 yards and four more scores. Miles Sanders is entering the final year of his current deal, and the Eagles played their best football last season when they leaned on the run.

20. Arizona Cardinals

Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah*

Phillips is already a two-year starter, and he broke up 12 passes last season. Arizona’s cornerback room has holes, and that’s before factoring in that Byron Murphy Jr. is entering the final year of his contract.

21. Baltimore Ravens

Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU*

Everyone loved the Ravens’ 2022 draft, but remember that they traded away Marquise Brown, leaving Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay as their top two wide receivers. Boutte is a top-15-caliber prospect who had nine touchdown catches in six games last year before a leg injury ended his season.

22. Cincinnati Bengals

Trenton Simpson, ILB, Clemson*

The Bengals drafted a pair of versatile defensive backs in the first two rounds this year, and they spent on the offensive line in free agency. If the fixes prove effective, one area they could instead look at in 2023 is linebacker. Simpson had 63 tackles and six sacks last season, and he can drop in coverage.

23. Houston Texans (via CLE)

BJ Ojulari, DE, LSU*

We already got Houston a quarterback, so how about a high-end edge rusher for new coach Lovie Smith’s defense? I love Ojulari’s burst and bend off the edge.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Henry To’oTo’o, ILB, Alabama

The Cowboys just used a fifth-rounder on linebacker Damone Clark, who will miss 2022 because of a back injury but should be ready to roll in 2023. Even so, adding another top-flight linebacker could help free up Micah Parsons in a more versatile role in which he thrives. To’oTo’o made 106 tackles last season.

25. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)

Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State*

At 6-foot-2 and 192 pounds, Porter has size on the outside and some versatility, though he has only one career interception. I like the upside of defensive backs Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen, midround picks for Seattle this year, but the Seahawks really need a potential star to improve this pass D.

26. Los Angeles Chargers

Zion Nelson, OT, Miami*

I actually had Nelson in my way-too-early mock this time last year, and he’s back again after opting to return to Miami. Nelson has 33 starts and could be the answer opposite Rashawn Slater on the Chargers’ offensive line.

27. Miami Dolphins (via SF)

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama*

Gibbs was a hidden gem at Georgia Tech, and now I expect him to explode onto the national stage after transferring to Alabama. His pass-catching ability out of the backfield will get a lot of attention. Pairing Gibbs with Chase Edmonds (Myles Gaskin and Raheem Mostert are under contract for only 2022) would give Miami a very strong rushing attack.

28. Detroit Lions (via LAR)

Tony Grimes, CB, UNC*

Grimes has 6-foot-1 size and good speed, and he broke up seven passes last season. A duo of Grimes and Jeff Okudah should help turn things around for Detroit’s lackluster pass defense.

29. Green Bay Packers

Emil Ekiyor Jr., G, Alabama

We’ll see how Green Bay’s moves at wide receiver play out; if quarterback Aaron Rodgers can’t find a reliable target this year, the Packers might be looking for a first-round pass-catcher next April. Another way to help Rodgers? Drafting Ekiyor, a versatile lineman with 28 starts under his belt.

30. Kansas City Chiefs

Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia

The 6-foot-3, 235-pound defender’s sack production isn’t overwhelming (3.5 in 2021 and 8.5 over three seasons), but he forced three fumbles last year and has a lot of upside. I’m excited to see what he can do in 2022 with much of the Georgia defense heading to the NFL. Smith could help the Chiefs keep the AFC West’s talented quarterbacks in check.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Josh Downs, WR, UNC*

Downs is an explosive route runner who caught 101 passes for 1,335 yards last season and excelled after the catch. He’d be dangerous in Tampa Bay’s offense. Also keep an eye on the QB situation here; the Buccaneers could potentially turn to Kyle Trask or sign a free agent if Tom Brady retires after the 2022 season, but they could also focus on the draft class for a replacement.

32. Buffalo Bills

Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma*

Another year, another loaded wide receiver class. Mims is undersized at 5-foot-11 and 177 pounds, and he hasn’t caught more than 37 passes in a season. But his 22.0 yards per reception ranked third in the nation last season, and he’d be yet another target for quarterback Josh Allen.