THE DAILY BRIEFING
| NFC SOUTH |
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ATLANTA
FALCONS SCHEDULE THOUGHTS
Every game on a Sunday – and other than the Week 4 visit to London to play the Jaguars and Week 10 at Arizona, they are all at 1:00 pm…The one possible exception is Week 15 when the game at Carolina is among the five that could be among the three selected for Saturday…The London game is on ESPN+, so limited to subscribers…9 on FOX, 5 on CBS…5 of the first 6 are home games (if you count London from the home inventory…4 of the last 6 on the road…Nothing too exciting about the division games…The Falcons, 7-10 last year, really don’t have a single game against an expected powerhouse team (are Jacksonville or Detroit the toughest?)…If they were better than Houston, Washington, Arizona and Indy and went 7-6 in the other 13 games, the Falcons would be 11-6 (there are other teams in this division we can say this about).
WK
1 Sun, Sep 10 Carolina 1:00 PM FOX
2 Sun, Sep 17 Green Bay 1:00 PM FOX
3 Sun, Sep 24 @Detroit 1:00 PM FOX
4 Sun, Oct 1 Jacksonville (London) 9:30 AM ESPN+
5 Sun, Oct 8 Houston 1:00 PM FOX
6 Sun, Oct 15 Washington 1:00 PM CBS
7 Sun, Oct 22 @Tampa Bay 1:00 PM FOX
8 Sun, Oct 29 @Tennessee 1:00 PM CBS
9 Sun, Nov 5 Minnesota 1:00 PM FOX
10 Sun, Nov 12 @Arizona 4:05 PM CBS
11 BYE
12 Sun, Nov 26 New Orleans 1:00 PM FOX
13 Sun, Dec 3 @NY Jets 1:00 PM FOX
14 Sun, Dec 10 Tampa Bay 1:00 PM CBS
15 Dec 16-17 @Carolina TBD
16 Sun, Dec 24 Indianapolis 1:00 PM FOX
17 Sun, Dec 31 @Chicago 1:00 PM CBS
18 Sun, Jan 7 @New Orleans TBD |
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CAROLINA
PANTHERS SCHEDULE THOUGHTS
As we said with the Falcons, the NFC South teams have a schedule that could yield a surprisingly good record to an ascending team…The Panthers open with two division games, then have 9 non-division before their first meeting with the Buccaneers…The Panthers and Falcons my seem to be in similar places on the food chain but Carolina did get a pair of primetime games (and winnable ones at that against New Orleans and Chicago)…There is a 3-game road trip around Thanksgiving, although none of the flights would be much over an hour…They are in the 3 of 5 Saturday roulette in Week 15…8 games on FOX, 5 on CBS.
WK
1 Sun, Sep 10 @Atlanta 1:00 PM FOX
2 Mon, Sep 18 New Orleans 7:15 PM ESPN
3 Sun, Sep 24 @Seattle 4:05 PM CBS
4 Sun, Oct 1 Minnesota 1:00 PM FOX
5 Sun, Oct 8 @Detroit 1:00 PM FOX
6 Sun, Oct 15 @Miami 1:00 PM CBS
7 BYE
8 Sun, Oct 29 Houston 1:00 PM FOX
9 Sun, Nov 5 Indianapolis 4:05 PM CBS
10 Thu, Nov 9 @Chicago 8:15 PM PRIME
11 Sun, Nov 19 Dallas 1:00 PM FOX
12 Sun, Nov 26 @Tennessee 1:00 PM FOX
13 Sun, Dec 3 @Tampa Bay 1:00 PM CBS
14 Sun, Dec 10 @New Orleans 1:00 PM FOX
15 Dec. 16-17 Atlanta TBD
16 Sun, Dec 24 Green Bay 1:00 PM FOX
17 Sun, Dec 31 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
18 Sun, Jan 7 Tampa Bay TBD |
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NEW ORLEANS
SAINTS SCHEDULE THOUGHTS
The Saints get 3 primetime games (two on PRIME), but everything else is Sunday early…10 on FOX, 3 on CBS…After the home opener, 4 of 5 on the road…There is a 3-game homestand in December…4 of the last 7 are division games, after 8 in a row outside the NFC South.
WK
1 Sun, Sep 10 Tennessee 1:00 PM CBS
2 Mon, Sep 18 @Carolina 7:15 PM ESPN
3 Sun, Sep 24 @Green Bay 1:00 PM FOX
4 Sun, Oct 1 Tampa Bay 1:00 PM FOX
5 Sun, Oct 8 @New England 1:00 PM CBS
6 Sun, Oct 15 @Houston 1:00 PM FOX
7 Thu, Oct 19 Jacksonville 8:15 PM PRIME
8 Sun, Oct 29 @Indianapolis 1:00 PM FOX
9 Sun, Nov 5 Chicago 1:00 PM CBS
10 Sun, Nov 12 @Minnesota 1:00 PM FOX
11 BYE
12 Sun, Nov 26 @Atlanta 1:00 PM FOX
13 Sun, Dec 3 Detroit 1:00 PM FOX
14 Sun, Dec 10 Carolina 1:00 PM FOX
15 Sun, Dec 17 NY Giants 1:00 PM FOX
16 Thu, Dec 21 @LA Rams 8:15 PM PRIME
17 Sun, Dec 31 @Tampa Bay 1:00 PM FOX
18 Sun, Jan 7 Atlanta TBD |
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TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERS SCHEDULE THOUGHTS
The 2022 Buccaneers had 5 primetime games, a game in Germany and 4 top doubleheader games for 10 games of national exposure…One guy leaves the roster and they are at 2 (half of a 2-game Monday night in Week 3 and a PRIME game in Week 8)…We said the Falcons didn’t have a single “powerhouse” game, but the Buccaneers have 3 (Philadelphia, Buffalo, San Francisco)…They do have Houston and Indy, so if they are 2-3 and those 5 game and split the rest, they finish 8-9…4 of 5 on the road around Thanksgiving…Wow – an even split of 7 on FOX, 7 on CBS.
WK
1 Sun, Sep 10 @Minnesota 1:00 PM CBS
2 Sun, Sep 17 Chicago 1:00 PM FOX
3 Mon, Sep 25 Philadelphia 7:15 PM ESPN
4 Sun, Oct 1 @New Orleans 1:00 PM FOX
5 BYE
6 Sun, Oct 15 Detroit 1:00 PM FOX
7 Sun, Oct 22 Atlanta 1:00 PM FOX
8 Thu, Oct 26 @Buffalo 8:15 PM PRIME
9 Sun, Nov 5 @Houston 1:00 PM CBS
10 Sun, Nov 12 Tennessee 1:00 PM CBS
11 Sun, Nov 19 @San Francisco 4:05 PM FOX
12 Sun, Nov 26 @Indianapolis 1:00 PM CBS
13 Sun, Dec 3 Carolina 1:00 PM CBS
14 Sun, Dec 10 @Atlanta 1:00 PM CBS
15 Sun, Dec 17 @Green Bay 1:00 PM FOX
16 Sun, Dec 24 Jacksonville 4:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 31 New Orleans 1:00 PM FOX
18 Sun, Jan 7 @Carolina TBD |
| NFC WEST |
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ARIZONA
CARDINALS SCHEDULE THOUGHTS
All 17 games on Sunday on FOX or CBS – and all but Week 16 at Chicago with an early local time kickoff…7 straight on FOX to start the season, then 6 of 7 on CBS for a final count of 10 on FOX, 6 CBS…The first 3 games are all against NFC East foes (then Philly down in Week 17)…All three division road games are in October, with the re-matches following in Weeks 12, 15 and 18…
WK
1 Sun, Sep 10 @Washington 1:00 PM FOX
2 Sun, Sep 17 NY Giants 4:05 PM FOX
3 Sun, Sep 24 Dallas 4:25 PM FOX
4 Sun, Oct 1 @San Francisco 4:25 PM FOX
5 Sun, Oct 8 Cincinnati 4:05 PM FOX
6 Sun, Oct 15 @ LA Rams 4:25 PM FOX
7 Sun, Oct 22 @Seattle 4:05 PM FOX
8 Sun, Oct 29 Baltimore 4:25 PM CBS
9 Sun, Nov 5 @Cleveland 1:00 PM CBS
10 Sun, Nov 12 Atlanta 4:05 PM CBS
11 Sun, Nov 19 @Houston 1:00 PM CBS
12 Sun, Nov 26 LA Rams 4:05 PM FOX
13 Sun, Dec 3 @Pittsburgh 1:00 PM CBS
14 BYE
15 Sun, Dec 17 San Francisco 4:05 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 24 @Chicago 4:25 PM FOX
17 Sun, Dec 31 @Philadelphia 1:00 PM FOX
18 Sun, Jan 7 Seattle TBD |
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SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS SCHEDULE THOUGHTS
The 49ers have 5 primetime games (including Thanksgiving night at Seattle on NBC and Christmas night with Baltimore), plus big doubleheader games with Cincinnati and at Philadelphia…9 games on FOX, 2 on CBS…After two at on the road to start the year, the Niners are home for 3 straight…The big games with the Seahawks are bunched together in Weeks 12 and 14.
WK
1 Sun, Sep 10 @Pittsburgh 1:00 PM FOX
2 Sun, Sep 17 @LA Rams 4:05 PM FOX
3 Thu, Sep 21 NY Giants 8:15 PM PRIME
4 Sun, Oct 1 Arizona 4:25 PM FOX
5 Sun, Oct 8 Dallas 8:20 PM NBC
6 Sun, Oct 15 @Cleveland 1:00 PM FOX
7 Mon, Oct 23 @Minnesota 8:15 PM ESPN
8 Sun, Oct 29 Cincinnati 4:25 PM CBS
9 BYE
10 Sun, Nov 12 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM FOX
11 Sun, Nov 19 Tampa Bay 4:05 PM FOX
12 Thu, Nov 23 @Seattle 8:20 PM NBC
13 Sun, Dec 3 @Philadelphia 4:25 PM FOX
14 Sun, Dec 10 Seattle 4:05 PM FOX
15 Sun, Dec 17 @Arizona 4:05 PM CBS
16 Mon, Dec 25 Baltimore 8:15 PM ESPN
17 Sun, Dec 31 @Washington 1:00 PM FOX
18 Sun, Jan 7 LA Rams TBD |
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
RAMS SCHEDULE THOUGHTS
The Rams get two primetime games – with Week 3 vs. Cincinnati sharing the nation with Eagles at Buccaneers…3 of 4 on the road to start the year, then a 3-game homestand that includes the two Pennsylvania teams…12 games on FOX (the NFL high) with two on CBS…Unlike most teams, the Rams get the division completely out of the way before Thanksgiving with only the obligatory Week 18 game (at San Francisco).
WK
1 Sun, Sep 10 @Seattle 4:25 PM FOX
2 Sun, Sep 17 San Francisco 4:05 PM FOX
3 Mon, Sep 25 @Cincinnati 8:15 PM ESPN
4 Sun, Oct 1 @Indianapolis 1:00 PM FOX
5 Sun, Oct 8 Philadelphia 4:05 PM FOX
6 Sun, Oct 15 Arizona 4:25 PM FOX
7 Sun, Oct 22 Pittsburgh 4:05 PM FOX
8 Sun, Oct 29 @Dallas 1:00 PM FOX
9 Sun, Nov 5 @Green Bay 1:00 PM FOX
10 BYE
11 Sun, Nov 19 Seattle 4:25 PM CBS
12 Sun, Nov 26 @Arizona 4:05 PM FOX
13 Sun, Dec 3 Cleveland 4:25 PM FOX
14 Sun, Dec 10 @Baltimore 1:00 PM FOX
15 Sun, Dec 17 Washington 4:05 PM CBS
16 Thu, Dec 21 New Orleans 8:15 PM PRIME
17 Sun, Dec 31 @NY Giants 1:00 PM FOX
18 Sun, Jan 7 @San Francisco TBD |
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SEATTLE
SEAHAWKS SCHEDULE THOUGHTS
Three primetime games for the Seahawks, one on each of the three packages…Back-to-back Thursday games in late November with SF on Thanksgiving night, then at Dallas on the 30th…The two big games with San Francisco are in November with only a week in between…8 games on FOX, 5 on CBS…Good balance of home and road games…4 road games in the early window
WK
1 Sun, Sep 10 LA Rams 4:25 PM FOX
2 Sun, Sep 17 @Detroit 1:00 PM FOX
3 Sun, Sep 24 Carolina 4:05 PM CBS
4 Mon, Oct 2 @NY Giants 8:15 PM ESPN
5 BYE
6 Sun, Oct 15 @Cincinnati 1:00 PM CBS
7 Sun, Oct 22 Arizona 4:05 PM FOX
8 Sun, Oct 29 Cleveland 4:05 PM FOX
9 Sun, Nov 5 @Baltimore 1:00 PM CBS
10 Sun, Nov 12 Washington 4:25 PM FOX
11 Sun, Nov 19 @LA Rams 4:25 PM CBS
12 Thu, Nov 23 San Francisco 8:20 PM NBC
13 Thu, Nov 30 @Dallas 8:15 PM PRIME
14 Sun, Dec 10 @San Francisco 4:05 PM FOX
15 Sun, Dec 17 Philadelphia 4:25 PM FOX
16 Sun, Dec 24 @Tennessee 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 31 Pittsburgh 4:05 PM FOX
18 Sun, Jan 7 @Arizona TBD |
| AFC NORTH |
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CINCINNATI
For now, WR JaMARR CHASE is content to be the greatest receiver in Bengals history when all is said and done. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
Ja’Marr Chase didn’t struggle to come up with an answer for a question about his goals for the 2023 season.
Chase set the Bengals franchise record for single-season receiving yards with 1,455 yards during his rookie season and he posted another strong year in 2022. For his third year in the league, Chase wants to rewrite the rest of the Bengals record book.
“Cincinnati stuff. Stuff to have my name written around this whole facility,” Chase said, via the team’s website. “Every receiver record they have.”
T.J. Houshmandzadeh set the receptions record with 112 catches in 2007 and Carl Pickens caught 17 touchdowns in 1995. If Chase claims either or both of those records, chances are good that the Bengals will be extending their playoff run to a third straight year.
It seems like Chase (among others) is a factor in QB JOE BURROW’s negotiations per Ben Baby of ESPN.com:
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow remained tight-lipped about his ongoing contract negotiations.
But he did clarify a few points Tuesday in his first media availability since the end of the 2022 season. The Cincinnati star knows exactly what he’s looking for in his next deal, which could make him the highest-paid player in the league.
As he goes through talks with the Bengals, Burrow said he’s keeping teammates who could also receive contract extensions in consideration.
“Whenever you have guys on the team that need to be paid, that’s always on your mind,” Burrow said. “You want that to be a focal point. We’re working to make that happen.”
Burrow delivered his comments one day after the Bengals started phase two of team workouts. Many of the team’s projected starters, including wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, were present inside the team’s indoor practice bubble.
Higgins, the team’s second-round pick in the 2020 draft, is also eligible for an extension as he enters his fourth season. The former Clemson standout amassed 3,028 receiving yards in his first three seasons.
The receiver shot down rumors floating online that a contract was in place. He added that Burrow’s comments indicate what has been discussed between them privately — the quarterback wants to keep the core intact for as many years as possible.
“We talk about staying together for the long run,” Higgins said. “Hopefully we can do that and get something negotiated to where they can keep all three of us.”
Chase, the 2021 Associated Press Rookie of the Year and two-time Pro Bowl selection, said Burrow’s comments illustrate what kind of quarterback he is.
“He knows what he has to do to win and he wants to win,” said Chase, who will not be eligible for a new deal until next offseason. “He’s a winning guy. He’s not a quarterback that’s always interested in money and all that other stuff. He just wants to win, and that’s the big thing about Joe.”
The Bengals have done a lot of winning since they drafted Burrow with the first overall pick in the 2020 draft. After a knee injury ended his rookie season, Burrow was named the league’s Comeback Player of the Year in 2021. Cincinnati won its first playoff game since January 1991 and reached the Super Bowl for the first time in 33 seasons, losing to the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI.
A loss to Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game last season kept Cincinnati from making a repeat trip to the NFL’s biggest game. In the 23-20 loss to the eventual Super Bowl champs, Higgins and Chase accounted for 14 of Burrow’s 26 total completions and combined for 158 receiving yards and a touchdown.
“You got to have good players,” Burrow said when asked if that game is an example of why he’s keeping them top of mind. “It doesn’t matter how good your quarterback is. If you don’t have good players around him, you’re not going to be a very good team.” |
| AFC EAST |
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NEW YORK JETS
Will QB AARON RODGERS go easy on the Jets? Mike Florio seems to think he should:
Before the Packers traded quarterback Aaron Rodgers, he agreed to move his fully-guaranteed $58.3 million option bonus to 2024, as a final cap favor to his former team. Now that he’s at the minimum salary of $1.165 million for 2023 with $107.55 million fully guaranteed on the books for 2024, Rodgers and the Jets need to work out a new deal.
Jets G.M. Joe Douglas said last week during an appearance on #PFTPM that the two sides are currently working on it. The manner in which the money is split between the next two years could shed considerable light on whether he plans to stay with the team for one season or two.
Skip
But there’s another wrinkle to consider, one that might not make his agents particularly happy. Rodgers could decide to cut the Jets a break, reducing the total dollars due and owing over the next two years, in lieu of simply moving money around.
It would be his call, even if his agents oppose it. And it would go a long way toward getting him even deeper in the good graces of Gang Green, who will love him unconditionally unless and until adversity arrives and he fails to overcome it in more than two or three straight games. |
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THIS AND THAT |
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OVER/UNDER WIN LINES
Vic Tafur of The Athletic tells us which side of the current over/under line for wins we should wager:
It’s always entertaining to look back at all the hot stories of the offseason, such as the outrage at how no team was interested in pursuing Lamar Jackson (when it was pretty clear teams had no leverage and he was going back to Baltimore).
Seven teams did get new quarterbacks, while the Packers promoted Jordan Love after waving goodbye to Aaron Rodgers. The Jets (Rodgers), Saints (Derek Carr), Raiders (Jimmy Garoppolo), Panthers (Bryce Young), Colts (Anthony Richardson), Texans (C.J. Stroud) and Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield) all have their fan bases very excited …
OK, maybe not the Bucs. (Raiders fans are always fired up.)
I have four of those eight teams exceeding expectations this season, though not the four you think. Here are my picks for every team’s win-loss over/under. We’re going with six best bets this year because I went 3-2 last year and didn’t include the Eagles after writing the whole intro about my love for them.
Best bets
All numbers come from BetMGM. If you want to wager on the win totals, you can find them here.
New York Jets
Under 9.5 (+110)
We are not down on the Jets as much as we are down on the entire AFC East. It’s a competitive bunch, and then factor in that those teams get to play the AFC West and the NFC East — two of the toughest divisions in the NFL. Rodgers, 40, still has plenty left in the tank and the Jets have a really good roster and a sharp coach in Robert Saleh. But the first seven games of the season — while Rodgers is still getting adjusted — are: Bills, at Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, at Broncos, Eagles and at Giants. You better have them at least 4-3 if you’re taking the over. I don’t.
Denver Broncos
Over 8.5 (+105)
What a great spot for Sean Payton to land. Russell Wilson was already starting to turn things around at the end of last season, and now Payton will inject some life into the league’s lowest-scoring offense. He is immediately the second-best coach in the division and will instill some discipline in a team that last season was either getting flags thrown at it or dropping the ball.
New York Giants
Under 8.5 (-145)
Remember when co-owner John Mara was a champion of the people? Back when he ripped the commissioner’s plans to have flexes for late-season Thursday night games and said it was unfair to fans who had made travel plans? Well, the league didn’t forget. The Giants were scheduled for seven road games in their first 11 weeks — with three in 11 days to open the season and then three consecutive road games at Las Vegas, Dallas and Washington to end that stretch. All the while teammates wonder why the bosses gave all that money to Daniel Jones.
Baltimore Ravens
Over 9.5 (-120)
Jackson got $52 million per year — with no annoying percentage going to an agent — and he also received gifts. The Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers and an underrated Nelson Agholor to an offense that already had Mark Andrews and J.K. Dobbins. Jackson said he plans to throw for 6,000 yards, and while that won’t happen, a strong offensive line and the added targets will keep his running lanes open.
The Ravens are 45-16 in the regular season with Jackson, and their defense is always tough. Taking 18-to-1 odds on them to win the whole thing is the best Super Bowl value bet on the board.
Green Bay Packers
Over 7.5 (Even)
The Packers were 8-9 with Rodgers, and I actually think they can match that without him. The stale energy will be gone, granted along with some breathtaking throws. But with two very good running backs and all the receivers that were drafted for Rodgers the past three years, Green Bay has enough talent that all Love has to do is be adequate. While Rodgers has to play six games within the AFC East and has NFC East as the cross-conference matchup, Love plays in the friendlier NFC North and gets to face the lowly NFC South (both teams play the AFC West). In fact, four of the Packers’ first five games are against teams with a losing record in 2022. And there’s also a chance that Love is better than adequate.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Under 6.5 (-120)
NFL teams never tank, right? What about cutting corners? “Cutting corners for Caleb” Williams has a nice ring to it. The Buccaneers won a Super Bowl with Tom Brady and now have to tear everything down. Sorry, I don’t think the Mayfield-Kyle Trask quarterback battle in training camp will make a difference. Free fantasy football tip, though: New offensive coordinator Dave Canales has big plans for Chris Godwin, whose knee is fine and will be lining up outside and inside and running more deep routes.
The rest of the league
Three teams — the Bengals, 49ers and Chiefs — are tied for the highest over/under win total at 11.5, while the Texans and Cardinals come in with the lowest at 5.5.
Cincinnati Bengals
Over 11.5 (Even)
Is this year the Bengals finally get over the hump? They lost to the Chiefs by a field goal in the playoffs after beating them the previous three meetings by a combined nine points. Adding left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. was a big-time move, and it feels like the Bengals know it’s now or never with this group before they have to give Burrow his own personal Brinks truck.
San Francisco 49ers
Over 11.5 (+115)
It doesn’t matter who plays quarterback, and part of that is due to the ability of Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to easily win matchups. Kyle Shanahan is a great play caller, but it helps when you have two dominant chess pieces (make that three with tackle Trent Williams). The 49ers have won 10 consecutive regular-season games and should challenge their franchise record of 15 thanks to an opening schedule of the Steelers, Rams, Giants (at home), Cardinals and Cowboys (at home).
Kansas City Chiefs
Under 11.5 (+105)
Wait, what are we doing? Last year, I took the Chiefs under because I thought they would be lost without Tyreek Hill. This offseason — after winning the Super Bowl again — they lost both starting tackles and their leading receiver in JuJu Smith-Schuster. But that doesn’t matter due to having Patrick Mahomes and some young ballhawks on defense. I am taking the under because I think the Chargers and Broncos are both improved in the AFC West. Eleven wins should still be good enough to wrap up an eighth straight division title.
Philadelphia Eagles
Over 10.5 (-150)
The only thing standing in the Eagles’ way is a stretch of games in Weeks 11 through 15 — at Chiefs, home vs. Bills and 49ers, at Cowboys and at Seahawks. But Jalen Hurts and the Eagles should be able to survive that and earn a high playoff seed that allows them to march toward the Super Bowl again. They replaced every key player they lost in the offseason and continued to use Georgia, the nation’s top college program, as their own farm system.
Buffalo Bills
Under 10.5 (+110)
The Bills were a popular Super Bowl pick a year ago and cruised to a 13-3 record before the wheels fell off. The schedule is tough, plus there are a growing number of NFL people who feel that Josh Allen — at 26! — has hit the ceiling and already is on his way back down. Not only will he have a hard time staying on the field while sacrificing his body the way he does, but some signs of wear and tear are already visible. The line of only 10.5 wins does feel like a trap.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Under 10.5 (-145)
The Jaguars jumped a couple of steps in their rebuilding process, and there will be a step back even with the addition of Calvin Ridley at receiver. Trevor Lawrence had some big moments last season, but there were still some hiccups, and I think the legendary comeback against the Chargers in the playoffs was more about the Chargers than him. I still see a team that was 4-8 going into Week 14 last season.
Detroit Lions
Under 9.5 (+105)
The Lions had it rolling last season, and I was on the bandwagon just like most of us. But I don’t get why they reached for running back Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round — or disbanded last season’s very successful tandem of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift, for that matter. The NFL, meanwhile, put the Lions in the crosshairs, with a season-opening prime-time game at the Chiefs. Four of their first seven games are on the road, and the Lions better sweep the Seahawks, Falcons and Panthers at home during that stretch if they’re going to win 10 games.
New Orleans Saints
Over 9.5 (Even)
The return of Michael Thomas gives Carr two great receivers, along with Chris Olave, to go with do-everything running back Alvin Kamara. Carr has a good offensive line, too. Cameron Jordan and Tyrann Mathieu lead a proud, long-in-the-tooth defense that should take advantage of a weak division, and coach Dennis Allen gets to face untested quarterbacks Bryce Young and Jordan Love in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively, before they have their feet under them. Those two games are sandwiched between home games against the Titans and Buccaneers, and if you squint, you can even see a 4-0 start for the Saints.
Cleveland Browns
Over 9.5 (+110)
Deshaun Watson was not good when he came back from his 11-game suspension, and the Browns are praying it was just rust. He cost them $230 million guaranteed and three first-round picks, and the Browns are trying to make trades to help him. They added receiver Elijah Moore and then dealt for pass rusher Za’Darius Smith to take some pressure off Myles Garrett. They also get to play the AFC South and NFC West, so that’s at least five wins right there. And they have the Bengals’ number, winning five of their past six matchups. So … take the over.
Dallas Cowboys
Over 9.5 (-130)
I have no idea if Dak Prescott is going to break through and stop being a tease. No one does. But there is a lot of talent on this roster, so much so that coach Mike McCarthy’s pledge to run the ball more after letting go of coordinator Kellen Moore doesn’t concern me. The Cowboys won’t get past the 49ers or the Eagles in the playoffs either way, but 10 wins? Book it.
Miami Dolphins
Over 9.5 (+105)
I have no idea if Tua Tagovailoa is going to hold up. No one does. (Mike White is the new backup.) The addition of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is a big one, though, and why I will pick the Dolphins to win the AFC East. The odds are +300. Hmmm.
Los Angeles Chargers
Over 9.5 (-110)
Kellen Moore is here to save the day. He will help Justin Herbert get to the next level (yeah, despite the media drooling, he just hasn’t been consistent enough) with the help of a healthy offensive line. There are some trappy non-division road games (at Titans, at Vikings, at Jets, at Packers, at Patriots), but the defense will be better as well, especially if cornerback J.C. Jackson returns from last season’s torn patella tendon.
Minnesota Vikings
Under 8.5 (-110)
The Vikings are stuck in place, but they have just the thing to fix that. They want Kirk Cousins to start extending plays like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. That doesn’t sound like a great idea, but Cousins’ accuracy will keep the Vikings in close games — they just won’t win all nine one-score games as they did in 2022. They won seven and eight games in 2020 and 2021 before going 13-4 in 2023. Regression seems likely — the defense was already bad AND lost a lot of starters — and the season will come down to the final four games: at Bengals, Lions, Packers, at Lions.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Under 8.5 (+110)
I like receivers Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Allen Robinson II. The offensive line is improved. But Kenny Pickett doesn’t give me confidence that he can take advantage of all that. And though the Steelers also addressed their secondary by adding Patrick Peterson and Joey Porter Jr., the rest of the division improved as well. Coach Mike Tomlin gets hit with his first losing season after narrowly sidestepping it a year ago.
Seattle Seahawks
Under 8.5 (Even)
The Seahawks shocked the world — except for me, wink — last season and then had a great draft, adding cornerback Devon Witherspoon and then Jaxon Smith-Njigba to a receiving corps that already had DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. But can they win nine games again? Can Geno Smith and a really young defense hold up against a schedule that includes the NFC East and the AFC North? Nah.
Atlanta Falcons
Under 8.5 (-110)
The Falcons closed out last season with two consecutive wins to finish 7-10, but beating the Cardinals and the soon-to-retire Tom Brady Bucs doesn’t mean much. Desmond Ridder is likely not the answer at QB. And though Arthur Smith is a run-game savant and drafting Bijan Robinson is great for both of them, I need to see a lot more out of the coach before I think he doesn’t go 7-10 for a third consecutive season.
Carolina Panthers
Over 7.5 (-125)
Young, at 5-foot-10 and 194 pounds, may be big enough to play QB in the NFL, but no one knows for certain how long he will be able to stand up after taking some hits. Thankfully, the Panthers added Andy Dalton just in … no I can’t even say it. Carolina has an underrated defense and an easy schedule, so a one-game jump from last year is not too much to ask.
Chicago Bears
Under 7.5 (Even)
I doubled the Bears’ win total from last season, as they will go from 0-6 in their division to 3-3. But that only gets me to six wins. And though I like Justin Fields’ potential, the bolstering of the offensive line and new receiver DJ Moore, I don’t think the addition of linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and a whole new defensive line is enough. The Bears’ defense was so bad last season that a safety led the team in sacks, and I just don’t see eight wins. Or even seven for that matter.
New England Patriots
Under 7.5 (+105)
It’s easy to blame all of the offensive problems last season on Matt Patricia, but the Patriots also don’t really know what they have in Mac Jones. The QB was great during his rookie season and terrible last season, so this year is the tiebreaker. Unfortunately for him, he could very easily be 0-4 after opening against the Eagles, Dolphins, at Jets and at Cowboys. And it won’t all be on him. Defensive guru Bill Belichick won’t be able to turn rookies into impact players that quickly.
Las Vegas Raiders
Under 7.5 (-150)
Last season, I loved the Broncos under, but the wise guys made it -160, which made it hard to recommend as a best bet. There was no value there. Same here. The Raiders roster is worse than it was last year, when it was 6-11 with Josh Jacobs leading the league in rushing. Jacobs is great, but that’s not happening again. The Raiders have a late bye (Week 13), which is great if you are getting ready for a postseason run. But there are a couple of brutal stretches in the schedule — including the first four games — that make that seem far-fetched, even if Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy.
Tennessee Titans
Over 7.5 (-105)
This is going to go one of two ways. The old guys make a stand … or Ryan Tannehill is benched for Will Levis by the bye in Week 6 and Derrick Henry is traded to the Cowboys. We’re going with Option A — the Titans were 6-6 with Tannehill last season and 1-4 without him — thanks to Weeks 3-5 games against the Raiders, Colts and Commanders and a defense that is always better than you think.
Washington Commanders
Under 7.5 (-150)
The Commanders finally have a new owner. Now, what about the coach? Ron Rivera has gone 7-9, 7-10, and 8-8-1 in his three seasons with the team, and Sam Howell is expected to take over at QB after playing one game last season. Howell moves well in the pocket, but his long-winded motion doesn’t make you think he’s going to lead Rivera to the promised land of eight or nine wins. But that defensive line of Montez Sweat, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Chase Young will get them knocking on the door of eight wins again. Flip a coin.
Indianapolis Colts
Under 6.5 (Even)
Finally, owner Jim Irsay told GM Chris Ballard no more aging quarterbacks, and to just draft one in the first round. Anthony Richardson is a project, but one that can leap tall buildings and throw the ball to the moon. He seems like a good match for new coach Shane Steichen, who opened up the offense with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. Now … none of that means anything this season. The defense was terrible last season, and even if Gardner Minshew steals a game or two standing in for Richardson, the Colts are not sniffing seven wins.
Los Angeles Rams
Over 6.5 (-110)
The days of adding expensive veterans and winning playoff games are over, as it all came crashing down last season with a domino-like fall of injured players on offense. Now, 37-year-old Sean McVay, who was a little burned out from the pressure, can have some fun with a new start as the Rams are expected to have more than 25 rookies at training camp. And he still has Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and the baddest man in the league in Aaron Donald, motivated after only having five sacks last season (he had 59 the previous four seasons).
Houston Texans
Over 5.5 (-130)
Pass. I can’t pass? I think C.J. Stroud was the best QB in the draft, and I buy in with new coach DeMeco Ryans. Laying -130 for the Texans to win six games is a little rich, though, especially after they made a big mistake trading the No. 12 pick, No. 33, a 2024 first-rounder and a 2024 third to move up for Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3. Bad teams need four players more than they need one talented pass rusher. But Ryans inherits some plucky defensive players, and Stroud is better than Young. Six wins.
Arizona Cardinals
Under 5.5 (-150)
Arizona was the beneficiary of that short-sighted Texans trade and could be sitting with two of the top three picks in the draft next year. They will likely then trade Kyler Murray and draft either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. But for right now, the Cardinals slept through the offseason other than drafting a franchise left tackle in Paris Johnson Jr. New general manager Monti Ossenfort has a fun year of college tailgating ahead of him, while under 5.5 wins seems like easy money. Though there is nothing easy about -150. |
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BROADCAST NEWS
As the NFL wished, FOX gave up Thursday night, but CEO Lachlan Murdoch isn’t impressed with what they did with it.
or the NFL, streaming isn’t the future. It’s the present. One executive whose business model arguably could end up being stuck in the past had something to say about the 2022 shift of Thursday Night Football from one of the networks he runs to Amazon.
Via Joe Flint of the Wall Street Journal, Fox Corp. CEO Lachlan Murdoch made this comment at the MoffettNathanson conference regarding the notion that Amazon’s reach for TNF is down 42 percent following the shift from Fox: “If I’m an NFL owner, that’s a disaster for me.”
Frankly, it all comes down to how an owner defines “disaster.” Amazon is paying considerably more than Fox was for TNF. That’s not a disaster. The audience is smaller than it would have been on three-letter network TV.
The NFL knew the audience would shrink with the prime-time pivot to streaming. The NFL is now trying to do what it can to boost the prime-time audience, from doubling up on the number of times a team can be asked to play on Thursday after playing on Sunday to the looming vote on the ability to flex Thursday night games late in the season.
In this regard, the NFL isn’t simply thinking about where the puck is going. It’s attempting to apply a slap shot to the projectile.
By moving one of the prime-time packages to streaming and by shifting both a late-season Saturday night game (Bills-Chargers, December 23) and a prime-time wild-card game to Peacock, the NFL isn’t waiting for the shift to streaming to take root. The NFL is sprinkling seeds and tilling soil.
Whether it’s successful isn’t the issue. The league had to do it. Faced with a choice between being on the cutting edge of the future of TV consumption or being dragged into tomorrow kicking and screaming, the NFL is opting to embrace the not-so-new world of streaming. |
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REPLACING THE CHIEFS
If Kansas City does not repeat, Jeffri Chadiha of NFL.com says they will be replaced by one of these seven teams:
The Kansas City Chiefs have been the NFL’s dominant team over the past four years, playing in three Super Bowls and winning two in that span. One more championship would turn them into a dynasty — but we also know how difficult it is for any team to win consecutive Lombardi Trophies. It hasn’t happened since the New England Patriots achieved the feat in the 2003 and ’04 seasons. The Chiefs failed to run it back three years ago themselves, when Tampa Bay ruined those high hopes in Super Bowl LV.
No matter how strong the case is for Kansas City to win it all again in Super Bowl LVIII after emerging victorious in Super Bowl LVII, the field always looks better in these situations. The more critical question to be asking is this: If not the Chiefs, then who is the most sensible choice to wear the crown?
The AFC already has strengthened itself even more than it had at this point last year, as Aaron Rodgers now plays for the Jets, Sean Payton is coaching the Broncos and former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is calling the plays for Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. On the NFC side, there’s still plenty to like about last year’s conference champions, the Eagles, and the team they beat in the NFC title game, the 49ers.
Of course, this doesn’t mean the Chiefs are going to be disappointing. They were supposed to take a step back last season after trading star wide receiver Tyreek Hill, but — while relying on an assortment of free agents and rookies in key roles — they ultimately won the biggest prize in football. It just means the competition will be even more intense as we move deeper into the 2023 season.
In fact, here are the seven teams most likely to supplant the Chiefs as Super Bowl champs next February:
1 Cincinnati Bengals
2022 record: 12-4
The best argument for the Bengals is their overall record against the Chiefs over the past two seasons. The two teams have played four games in that span (including the playoffs), and the Bengals only have lost once. We all know how that last encounter ended in the AFC Championship Game, with Bengals defensive end Joseph Ossai drawing a personal foul for a late hit on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes that set up the game-winning field goal by Harrison Butker. That 23-20 defeat must haunt the Bengals to this day, especially because they were able to upset Kansas City in the previous season’s AFC title tilt.
Cincinnati lost some key pieces in free agency, most notably running back Samaje Perine and safeties Von Bell and Jessie Bates III, but the bulk of the roster is still in place to do some serious damage. The Bengals boast the league’s best collection of offensive skill talent, a group that includes quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. The bigger questions are:
The Bengals were so close to repeating as AFC champs last season. They’re going to be a beast again, one that will be even hungrier to secure that Lombardi Trophy.
2 Philadelphia Eagles
2022 record: 14-3
The Eagles still look like the class of the NFC after an offseason that was far more encouraging than perhaps most expected. Following their loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII, several critical personnel decisions awaited. Philadelphia took its hits in free agency (including the loss of valuable contributors like defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, running back Miles Sanders and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson) but also held onto other key veterans (center Jason Kelce, defensive end Brandon Graham and cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry). The draft was good to the Eagles, who found defensive tackle Jalen Carter and edge rusher Nolan Smith in the first round and traded for Lions running back D’Andre Swift on Day 3.
As much as those moves helped, this team also would’ve been pretty good with most of the returning players from last season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts turned himself into an All-Pro quarterback and MVP runner-up, earning a massive contract extension. He’s still operating behind one of the best offensive lines in football, and his supporting cast — especially the receiving tandem of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown — remains scary. The only reason the Eagles aren’t ranked higher is the departure of offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon for head-coaching jobs with the Colts and Cardinals, respectively. Head coach Nick Sirianni will have this group prepared, but there will be some transition here.
3 Buffalo Bills
2022 record: 13-3
The Bills might be sitting in a more favorable position than many realize. After they were the sexiest pick to win Super Bowl LVII, their season ended with a blowout loss to Cincinnati, at home, in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. That has prompted some observers to wonder if Buffalo missed its championship window. Yes, quarterback Josh Allen will continue to take up cap space as he gets deeper into the extension he signed in 2021. But news flash: The Bills haven’t stopped being good. The issue with this team is, how much production can be mined out of the people around Allen? Wide receiver Gabe Davis failed to become a consistently dangerous option in the passing game, so now the Bills are hoping the addition of first-round pick Dalton Kincaid can give them a potent 1-2 punch at tight end with Dawson Knox. The offensive line became less dependable as the season wore on, and Buffalo responded by adding guard Connor McGovern in free agency and using a second-round pick on guard O’Cyrus Torrence. On defense, the success will come down to how well edge rusher Von Miller performs after last year’s ACL reconstruction and what safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer can do now that they’re in their early 30s. Not to mention, how head coach Sean McDermott performs as the defensive play-caller in the wake of former DC Leslie Frazier stepping away.
The Bills went through a lot last season, from bearing the weight of those heavy expectations to witnessing the frightening near-death experience of safety Damar Hamlin. They could find it much easier to play when there are more doubters circling above, just waiting for the chance to count them out.
4 New York Jets
2022 record: 7-10
There’s no denying that anything short of a Super Bowl would be viewed by some as a major failure for this franchise. The Jets didn’t trade for Aaron Rodgers simply to make a deep run in the playoffs. This deal is supposed to send them leap-frogging over the rest of the competition in the AFC, and it clearly looks great on paper. The Jets have everything a team could hope to offer a future Hall of Fame quarterback who turns 40 in December. That includes a dominant defense (including All-Pros like defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner, also the 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year), an assortment of young weapons (Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson) and some familiar faces from Rodgers’ time in Green Bay (offensive tackle Billy Turner and wide receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb). Rodgers also gives the Jets something this franchise has coveted since the days of Joe Namath: a legitimate playmaker under center who can make the necessary plays at the critical moments that lead to championships.
The important thing to remember is that transitions aren’t always simple. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were sitting at 7-5 through Week 12 of the 2020 season, Tom Brady’s first with that team. They wound up winning it all, but they had enough ugly moments early on that some wondered if they’d even make the postseason that year (they wound up with a wild-card berth). The same thing could happen in New York as Rodgers settles into a new home, especially if injuries plague the offensive line, as they did last year. Still, this feels like a team that can and should get hot down the stretch. The last time Rodgers thought the doubters were forecasting his impending demise, he won the league MVP award, in 2020 and 2021. He’s talking with that same sense of urgency already, which means the Jets will get the best version of him.
5 San Francisco 49ers
2022 record: 13-4
The 49ers might have been ranked higher on this list if their quarterback situation hadn’t imploded due to injuries over the course of last season. They wound up using four players at that position in 2022, with the health woes ultimately costing them a shot at the Super Bowl. The 49ers come into this year liking what they have in second-year signal-caller Brock Purdy, the seventh-round pick who led the team to seven straight wins before sustaining an injury in the NFC Championship Game loss to Philadelphia. This team was supposed to belong to 2021 first-round pick Trey Lance by this point, but Purdy proved he had the moxie and talent to lead a championship-caliber group when his opportunity arrived. He just needs to show that his surgically repaired right elbow won’t be an issue once he’s back on the field.
After that, it’s hard to find faults with this team. There is a ton of talent around Purdy, including running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. The defense already had plenty of star power (with reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa, All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga), but the signing of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave makes that unit even scarier. Let’s be honest: That NFC title game would’ve been far more competitive had the 49ers been at full strength. That should be enough motivation to push them through this season and give them a shot at a much happier ending than they received in 2022.
6 Dallas Cowboys
2022 record: 12-5
The Cowboys have made three significant personnel moves this season that should give their fans optimism about this team’s championship hopes. The first was releasing running back Ezekiel Elliott, a sign of acceptance that this offense will function better with Tony Pollard as the lead ball-carrier (even if Elliott might still end up returning to Dallas). The second critical decision was trading for cornerback Stephon Gilmore. He turns 33 years old in September, but he’s proven to be an effective player in each of his last two stops (with Carolina in 2021 and Indianapolis last season). That means he’s likely to be a great counterpart to star cornerback Trevon Diggs on a defense that once again figures to make life hell for opposing passers. The third big move was another trade, for wide receiver Brandin Cooks, a player with the kind of top-end speed that should ease the burden on fellow wideout CeeDee Lamb and quarterback Dak Prescott.
All these moves indicate that the Cowboys are taking serious stock of their flaws — the first-round pick used on Michigan defensive tackle Mazi Smith also should improve a shaky run defense — and not simply believing their talent will eventually win the day in the chase for a championship. Last year’s team would look like a Super Bowl squad in one game, then morph into a confounding mess in others. Now it feels like they’re putting more playmakers around Prescott, which allows him to be at his best and avoid the costly turnovers that plagued him too often last year. Head coach Mike McCarthy has talked about a more conservative approach to play-calling and a desire to play to his defense. It just feels like this is a year where everyone in that franchise has a greater sense of urgency. That tends to happen when you watch your divisional rival go to the Super Bowl and keep finding more ways to improve.
7 Los Angeles Chargers
2022 record: 10-7
This spot easily could’ve gone to the Detroit Lions. The Chargers get it for two reasons:
They actually made the playoffs last year.
Kellen Moore was one of the best hires of the offseason.
Anybody who’s watched the Chargers over the past two seasons understands how talented Justin Herbert is. He now will be coached by an offensive coordinator who is as aggressive as anybody handling that job in the league. Moore helped Dak Prescott play some of his best football in Dallas, largely by making the most of all the resources available to him in that franchise. The Chargers have a similar supply of assets on their roster, including a strong offensive line, veteran wide receivers, athletic tight ends and a versatile running back in Austin Ekeler. Moore’s presence and creativity should give Herbert more opportunities to unleash his full potential as a quarterback.
That’s job one. The rest of this team’s hopes come down to an ability to stay healthy and make clutch plays. The Chargers couldn’t do either consistently last year, and they paid a heavy price for that. It’s safe to say no team in the league lost more stars to injuries than Los Angeles, with left tackle Rashawn Slater, edge rusher Joey Bosa, cornerback J.C. Jackson and receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all missing time in 2022. The only thing more frustrating than those health problems was watching this team blow a 27-0 lead in a 31-30 loss to Jacksonville in the Wild Card Round. That game showed both how dominant and dysfunctional the Chargers can be; this coming season must be about more of what they displayed in the first half. The Bolts have been good enough to win once against Kansas City over the last two seasons and lose the other three meetings by a mere combined 12 points. The question now is whether they can become consistent enough to surpass the Chiefs in the AFC West.
We are not necessarily enamored with the Chargers in the same division with Sean Payton’s Broncos and a decent Raiders team.
How about the Seahawks? They also made the playoffs and had two first round picks the experts are gaga over = #5 CB DEVON WITHERSPOON and #20 WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA. And we think they are in a slightly weaker division than LAC. |
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