The Daily Briefing Wednesday, May 22, 2024
THE DAILY BRIEFING
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The chain gang, or at least its prime function, could be imperiled, to the delight of many. Jonathan Jones of CBSSports.com:
The chain may no longer keep us together.
The NFL is moving forward this preseason with an optical tracking system for line-to-gain rulings, sources tell CBS Sports. The system had been tried out in a few NFL stadiums this past season, and it will get a full preseason trial this summer.
If the trial goes well and everyone’s on board, the tracking system will be implemented full time for the 2024 NFL regular season, sources say.
In March, the NFL’s competition committee quietly approved its use across all teams in the preseason. But before the league fully implements it for the full season, it wants to make sure the system works well enough to be trusted.
The chain gang won’t exactly become a thing of the past, though. Sources say the chains will still exist on the sideline, but they’ll be used both as a backup for game operations and as a reference point for coaches, players and fans in the stadium.
All game footballs are microchipped and have been for years. But this technology doesn’t employ the chip and instead relies entirely on optical tracking. The system, which was used at MetLife Stadium and Hard Rock Stadium last year, would need to be installed across all 30 NFL stadiums as well as any international stadium where NFL games are played.
If the system works, it would make for a more accurate measuring system that reduces the amount of human error. If the league sees there are problems such as latency issues in the preseason, the move can be tabled until 2025 with the chain crew continuing to do the same job as always. – – – The NFL now has a VP in charge of Flag Football. David Lombardi in The Athletic:
Flag football has seen a rapid recent expansion. It’s even been approved to be included in both the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Naturally, this is all great news for the NFL as it strives to maximize football’s worldwide exposure.
To that end, the league has created a new executive position: vice president, head of flag football. On Tuesday, the NFL announced it has hired Stephanie Kwok, a Stanford alumnus and Harvard Business School graduate, to this new role overseeing flag football.
“Stephanie brings a passion to exponentially expand the game that has taken the sports world by storm and provides opportunity for all girls, boys, men and women to experience the fun and values of football,” NFL executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent said in a statement.
The league sees itself amid a prime opportunity to continue growing football beyond its traditional gridiron tackling form.
That much was clear at the recent NFL annual meeting, during which former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Steve Young — who recently helped coach his daughters’ first-year girls flag football team at Menlo School alongside his former 49ers teammate John Paye — headlined a panel discussion centered around the sport’s introduction at the 2028 Olympics.
Kwok would be at least the 28th employee of the NFL with a title of VP or better.
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NFC SOUTH |
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CAROLINA You don’t often see a placekicker let his displeasure be known by skipping OTAs, but that is happening in Carolina with PK EDDIE PINEIRO. Schuyler Calihan of SI.com:
Carolina Panthers kicker Eddy Pineiro was not on hand for the start of OTAs on Monday, creating more speculation about his future with the organization. The 29-year-old is entering the final year of a two-year deal he signed last April.
This portion of the offseason workout program is voluntary, so the team can’t slap Pineiro or others who choose to not participate with a fine. But it is odd, however, that Pineiro has not had communication with first-year head coach Dave Canales.
“I have not talked to him, so I think we’re just focusing on the guys we have,” Canales told reporters following Monday’s practice. “I’m glad we have Harrison Mevis here so that we can actually go through our field goal/field goal block period. We’re just focusing on the guys that are here and I’m sure Eddy’s got a plan for this whole thing.”
Last season, Pineiro connected on 25-of-29 field goals, including 17-of-20 on extra point attempts.
Other Panthers that were not seen at practice include WR David Moore, WR Cam Sims, WR Michael Strachan, OL Robert Hunt, DL A’Shawn Robinson, OLB Jadeveon Clowney, LB K’Lavon Chaisson, LB and Josey Jewell. Veteran CB Troy Hill did not participate in the first offseason workout period, but did return for today’s practice.
He was good for 42 of 49 on all kicks. 5 of 7 from 50+.
Seven missed kicks. Only seven kickers had more, many as few as four or five. Chase McLaughlin of the Buccaneers only missed two (62 of 64).
Average length of made field goals was 39.1 (slightly above league average).
His 66.7% touchback percentage was 21st among kickers with 50+ kickoffs.
So okay numbers, but they don’t look to be hard to replace.
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TAMPA BAY With S ANTOINE WINFIELD, Jr. happy, T TRISTAN WIRFS is telling the Buccaneers to show him some love. JoeBucsFan:
Buccaneers All-World left tackle Tristan Wirfs is not attending OTAs this spring until things change.
That’s the word from Jeremy Fowler of ESPN, via his X account.
Fowler said Wirfs doesn’t want to risk injury as he negotiates a contract extenstion. Fowler has had great Bucs information lately, including breaking that Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean were on the trade block.
Meanwhile, Wirfs is guaranteed $21 million this season. Yeah, Joe knows spring practices are voluntary. Wirfs has been working out inside the walls of One Buc Palace but don’t expect him at practice.
Head coach Todd Bowles said after today that he’s talked to Wirfs about the situation, and Bowles didn’t seem the tiniest bit concerned.
Yesterday, Buccaneers Ring of Honor general manager Jason Licht said he hopes to “finish off” Wirfs’ contract soon.
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NFC WEST |
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SAN FRANCISCO Three known no shows at 49ers OTAs, including RB CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:
49ers running back Christian McCaffrey hasn’t been participating in the team’s voluntary offseason program, coach Kyle Shanahan confirmed Tuesday.
“No, just like everyone else, it is voluntary,” Shanahan said, via a transcript from the team. “I’m not too concerned about Christian. But no, he hasn’t been here.”
Receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings also have been absent.
It is unclear whether McCaffrey’s absence is contract-related.
“I’m not sure if that is the case on any of those guys,” Shanahan said. “I’m not throwing them all in who’s here for that reason, who’s not. But it is all voluntary, so we’ll see when it becomes mandatory.”
McCaffrey is getting married soon, but Shanahan didn’t indicate that was the reason for the running back’s absence.
McCaffrey is due to make $11.8 million in 2024 and count $14.144 million against the cap, and he is signed through 2025. His annual average of $16.015 million still leads all players at his position.
Aiyuk has not been shy about his desire for a new deal.
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AFC NORTH |
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CLEVELAND Evan Massey of GridironHeroics.com with this update on RB NICK CHUBB:
According to a report from Cleveland Browns reporter Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, Chubb has made some progress but there are still questions surrounding his availability for the upcoming season.
“Chubb won’t be participating in OTAs or the minicamp from a team drills standpoint, but he’s been around all offseason rehabbing the knee and providing inspiration to his teammates. He also spends some time during the offseason training at his high school, Cedartown in Georgia, and could be back and forth during OTAs. But he’s been running for several weeks, and looks good. If all goes as planned, he’ll test the twice-reconstructed left knee during training camp, and work toward a return to the field as soon as possible.”
The good news is that the Browns star has been running for several weeks. He may miss out on OTAs and minicamp, but he seemingly hasn’t been ruled out of training camp or preseason action yet. That may seem like a stretch for him to play in the preseason, but it’s always worth having a goal.
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PITTSBURGH The number of elite events in Pennsylvania in 2026 became even more staggering with the awarding of the 2026 NFL Draft to Pittsburgh. Sean Leahy of YahooSports.com:
The 2026 NFL Draft has been awarded to the Steel City.
On Wednesday, the NFL announced that the Pittsburgh Steelers will host the 2026 NFL Draft.
“The NFL Draft is one of the biggest, most-anticipated sporting events of the year, and we’re thrilled to partner with the Pittsburgh Steelers and VisitPITTSBURGH for our 2026 event,” NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said in a statement. “We have a unique opportunity to spotlight this wonderful community on a global stage, benefiting Pittsburgh’s economy and entertaining football fans from all markets. We know this pride of Pennsylvania will shine bright in 2026.”
Pittsburgh last hosted the draft in 1948 when it took place at the Fort Pitt Hotel and didn’t feature hundreds of thousands of fans in attendance.
The Steelers submitted an application to host the draft in February for either 2026 or 2027. Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro said landing the event in 2026 would fit with the state’s celebration of the United States’ 250th birthday.
Also happening in the state in 2026 to coincide with the United States’ Semiquincentennial is the MLB All-Star Game, PGA Championship, NCAA men’s basketball tournament and the FIFA World Cup. All will take place in Philadelphia, while the golf tournament will take place nearby at Aronimink Golf Club.
“I think it’d probably be the biggest visitor event in the history of the city. And so it’s very exciting,” Steelers president and owner Art Rooney II said in February. We think, where Pittsburgh is located, not only will we have thousands of Steeler fans, but we’d have thousands of fans from all of the NFL cities that are that are, within a 500 mile radius of Pittsburgh.”
There were reportedly 10 teams interested in landing the 2026 draft.
This year’s draft was hosted by the Detroit Lions and broke the draft attendance record with over 700,000 fans taking it all in over the course of the weekend.
The NFL will bring the 2025 draft to Green Bay’s Lambeau Field and Titletown district from April 24–26, 2025.
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AFC EAST |
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BUFFALO WR MARQUEZ VALDEZ-SCANTLING wants to be the piece that gets Buffalo and QB JOSH ALLEN to the Super Bowl. ProFootballTalk.com:
Adjusting to catching passes from Bills quarterback Josh Allen might be tough for some receivers, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling said it hasn’t been a big deal for him.
Valdes-Scantling played for the Packers and Chiefs before signing with the Bills this offseason and he said on Tuesday that catching Allen’s passes is “not any different” than what he experienced playing with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Both of those quarterbacks won MVPs while Valdes-Scantling was one of their targets and the Chiefs won a pair of Super Bowls, which has helped the wideout set some goals for his time with Allen.
“It’s been a blessing,” Valdes-Scantling said, via Tim Graham of TheAthletic.com. “I’ve had great opportunities, winning two Super Bowls and being a part of those teams in Green Bay, watching Aaron win MVPs. Hopefully, I can just keep bringing over good stuff. Hopefully, we can get Josh a Super Bowl and an MVP this year.”
The Bills haven’t been able to get past Mahomes and the Chiefs during their run with Allen, so they’ll welcome anything Valdes-Scantling can do to help them get over the hump this time around.
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MIAMI The Dolphins have not provided very compelling TV in recent years when playing late season games outdoors. But the NFL still sent them into the wild of the frozen north three times late in 2024. Coach Mike McDaniel has come up with a motivational spin. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
A narrative has emerged regarding the Dolphins of the past two years. Great at home, not as great on the road. Especially when the weather turns.
This year, the Dolphins finish with four of their last six games away from home, including games at Green Bay, Houston, Cleveland, and the Jets.
Coach Mike McDaniel was asked by reporters on Tuesday about the road games at the end, including the Thanksgiving night visit to Lambeau Field.
“I think, well, if you’re wanting to change a narrative, you’re going to have an opportunity,” McDaniel said. “I don’t really worry too much about things, pretending like I have any idea of what’s good or bad. I know if you’re playing the right competitive football, you’ll always have unique challenges to your schedule. If you’re playing the right type of football, you’ll have prime-time games. You can have short or long weeks. All those things. I think we’ve found a way to develop our team both years. I’m firmly expecting that same thing again this year. I think that the opportunities down the stretch of the season are ones that this team at that point in time will be thirsting for. That’s something that when I saw the schedule, I was pretty excited.”
McDaniel was later asked to explain why he’s confident the team will rise to the challenge of the late-season road games, especially since in Green Bay, Cleveland, and New Jersey weather could be an issue.
“Well, I mean, these are the things that we’re trying to establish ourselves to take the next step as an organization,” McDaniel said. “We’re trying to do that anyway, so the fact that the schedule gives us the opportunity to do what we’re working tirelessly to try to accomplish, I thought it was fitting. I guess I don’t go into the schedule with expectations. I think all games are hard. All teams, all opponents are hard. You have to be a tough-minded football team to be your best at the end of the season. That’s a formula that we’ve found in portions of the season that we have a very direct concerted goal of making sure that we take the next step as an organization. So yeah, I’m not in the business of hiding [from] something. We’re going to have to pay the piper at some point.”
The piper has been paid in each of the last two seasons with a one-and-done road loss in the playoffs, one in Buffalo and one in Kansas City. The goal for all teams is to get enough wins to earn playoff games at home.
The Dolphins had the chance to do that last year, but faltered down the stretch, for the second straight season. This year, it will be even harder to finish strong.
Bryan DeArdo of CBSSports.com looks at everyone’s strength of schedule. And he thinks Miami actually has a favorable one:
I’m a big fan of the Dolphins’ schedule. Of their first seven games, only one is against a team that made the playoffs last year. Miami’s toughest game, Week 16 against the 49ers, is at home. If they stay relatively healthy, there’s no reason why the Dolphins aren’t challenging the Chiefs for home-field advantage when the playoffs start in mid-January.
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NEW YORK JETS QB AARON RODGERS tells us about his deliberations on whether or not to run for Vice President of the United States. Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com:
Aaron Rodgers had an offer to pursue a political career this summer. He chose football instead. Rodgers was on the short list of vice presidential possibilities for U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but took himself out of the running. The decision basically came down to football, which Rodgers would have had to give up.
“I love Bobby,” Rodgers said at the Jets press conference Tuesday. “We had a couple of really nice conversations. But there were really two options — retire and be his VP or keep playing. And I wanna keep playing.”
Kennedy is expected to run as an independent candidate this fall, attempting to upset current President Joe Biden and former President Donald J. Trump. Rodgers has been a public supporter of Kennedy, indicating he planned to vote for the environmental lawyer in 2024, and advocating for the politician’s stances on vaccinations and “medical freedom.”
The opportunity to become a vice president would have taken away football from the 40-year-old Rodgers, who is coming off an Achilles injury that impacted his entire 2023 season. Rodgers appears to be fully recovered in OTAs, nine months after suffering the injury.
There’s plenty to prove in 2024 for Rodgers, who is attempting to show he can still play at a high level one year after a severe injury. The only 40-year-old (not including kickers/punters) with that long of a layoff between games since 1970 was Steve DeBerg (1,750).
The Jets also have the NFL’s longest active playoff drought at 13 seasons and haven’t advance to a Super Bowl since winning Super Bowl III in the 1968 season. Rodgers wants to bring a championship to New York, so a political career will have to wait.
We’re not saying it would be optimum, and Rodgers didn’t choose it – but if Kennedy failed to win the presidency despite having the quarterback on the ticket, couldn’t he have unretired and re-joined the Jets in November?
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THIS AND THAT
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STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE Atlanta and Chicago are two teams that Bryan D’Ardo of CBSSports.com thinks are well positioned to make a run thanks to softer schedules than their division rivals.
Kirk Cousins probably didn’t look too deeply into his new team’s 2024 schedule upon signing with the Atlanta Falcons. It is surely a welcomed bonus for Cousins, whose team has the easiest schedule this season based on opponents’ combined 2023 winning percentage.
Technically, the Falcons are tied with the Saints with the NFL’s easiest schedule. Both teams’ opponents won a combined 45.3% of their games last year. The Buccaneers, Seahawks and Dolphins — three teams that made the playoffs last season — also have three of the NFL’s easier schedules.
Conversely, the top three teams in the AFC North last year — the Browns, Ravens and Steelers — possess the league’s hardest schedules. The Steelers don’t play a single team that had a losing record last year after Week 10. The Bengals, the fourth AFC North team, benefitted by finishing 9-8 and in last place in the division last year. While not easy, Cincinnati’s schedule is considerably easier than their AFC North counterparts.
NFL 2024 strength of schedule
TEAM OPPONENT 2023 WINNING PERCENTAGE 1. Cleveland Browns .547 2. Baltimore Ravens .536 3. Pittsburgh Steelers .533 T4. Houston Texans .526 T4. Green Bay Packers .526 T6. New York Giants .516 T6. Buffalo Bills .516 T8. Jacksonville Jaguars .512 T8. Las Vegas Raiders .512 T8 New England Patriots .512 11. Detroit Lions .509 T12. Los Angeles Rams .505 T12. San Francisco 49ers .505 T12. Dallas Cowboys .505 T12. New York Jets .505 T16. Cincinnati Bengals .502 T16. Washington Commanders .502 T16. Minnesota Vikings .502 T16. Kansas City Chiefs .502 20. Denver Broncos .495 T21. Indianapolis Colts .491 T21. Philadelphia Eagles .491 T21. Tennessee Titans .491 T24. Arizona Cardinals .488 T24. Seattle Seahawks .488 T24. Miami Dolphins .488 T27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers .478 T27. Los Angeles Chargers .478 T29. Carolina Panthers .467 T29. Chicago Bears .467 T31. New Orleans Saints .453 T31. Atlanta Falcons .453
Atlanta is a trendy pick to make noise this season after acquiring Cousins, who put up prolific numbers during his time with the Minnesota Vikings. And while their schedule is easy from a percentage standpoint, the Falcons will start the season with three straight games against teams that won at least 10 games in 2023 in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Kansas City.
Things ease up after that, though, with two games against the Panthers (who went 2-15 last season), a Week 11 game in Denver (8-9 in 2023) and a Week 16 home game against the Giants (6-11 in 2023). Atlanta’s season may come down to whether or not it can have enough success against divisional foes New Orleans and Tampa Bay in what could be a compelling three-team race for the NFC South crown.
One team that may be worth monitoring this season is the Chicago Bears, who own the third-easiest schedule. Chicago has been in the headlines a lot this offseason with the selections of quarterback Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze in the first round of April’s draft. While Bears fans should temper expectations, things could get interesting in the Windy City if Williams and Co. find a way to stay in the playoff hunt entering December.
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BROADCAST NEWS Greg Olsen wins an Emmy. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
No pressure, Tom. None whatsoever.
Broadcasting newbie Tom Brady was already stepping into a tough spot after being handed the job at Fox that Greg Olsen had done to much public acclaim. Complicating the stakes, and adding to the awkwardness, Olsen won another Emmy for the job that he has lost to a bigger name who might not be a better broadcaster.
Olsen secured the award last night. As noted by AwfulAnnouncing.com, the others nominated in the category were Cris Collinsworth, Troy Aikman, Bill Raftery, John Smoltz, and Tom Verducci.
It was Olsen’s second straight win in the category of Outstanding Personality/Event Analyst.
“I think there’s a lot of people wondering what I’m gonna say right now,” Olsen said to start his acceptance speech.
“I don’t know what the future holds,” he said later. “All I know is I love talking football, I love talking ball. I love studying it. I love seeing where the game is going. Wherever that takes me, whatever level it is, I’m more committed to the game of football now. My wife allows me to chase this every weekend after 15 years of a weird life of moving all around the country playing the game now I fly around the country calling a game.”
Fox posted congratulations to Olsen on X. The replies are worth the price of admission.
Olsen reportedly will move to the Fox No. 2 team with Joe Davis. Olsen’s pay reportedly will plunge from $10 million per year to $3 million, while Brady gets $37.5 million.
Olsen will surely be a candidate for the top spot at another network, whenever a top spot comes open. Which doesn’t happen often.
The Emmy win adds to the mess Fox has created for itself by chasing a name, throwing a giant bag of cash at him, and putting him in an impossible situation. On many weekends this year, Olsen will inevitably be working the 1:00 p.m. ET game that goes into the biggest chunk of the country, and Brady will do the game at 4:25 p.m. ET. It will create the ultimate apples-to-apples comparison for football fans who plug into the NFL matrix on Sunday afternoons.
It will be interesting to see what happens next year, when the folks at the Emmys announce the nominees in that same category. Will Olsen win it a third straight time from the No. 2 spot at Fox? Will Brady even be nominated?
The Brady name and aura will help his cause, in some circles. It will hurt his cause in others. At some point, it will come down to two very simple things: (1) what he says; and (2) how it sounds. That’s something that is completely independent of who the person is and what the person has accomplished in any other arena.
We actually think it’s a nice problem for FOX to have, at the moment.
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CAN RECEIVERS BE PAID EVEN MORE?
Randy Mueller, writing in The Athletic, wonders if receivers are making too much money.
I’m not one for letting good players walk out the door.
I know from experience that talent is too hard to replace, even with the best-hatched plan, without taking a step backward. So I understand that, at least sometimes, proven teams need to overpay slightly for the sake of continuity.
But recent contracts for NFL wide receivers have forced me to at least question my philosophy. And that tells me that general managers and team-builders around the NFL are no doubt contemplating that question as well.
It’s not because these receivers lack talent. They are all really good players. But the contract numbers are making the team-building equation more complicated than ever.
The dilemma is twofold. First, if you’re going to pay a wide receiver more than $30 million per year, are you sure he’s a difference-maker and not just a guy who fits your system? And second, is it feasible to pay big salaries to more than one wide receiver on your roster?
Ten years ago, the NFL’s top-paid wide receivers made about $16 million annually, equaling about 12 percent of the $133 million cap. Today, A.J. Brown leads the way at $32 million annually on a cap of $255 million. That’s still just 12.5 percent of the cap. But let’s look closer.
In 2014, the two receivers making $16 million annually were Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, the clear standard-bearers at the position. There weren’t enough top-of-the-heap receivers that every new contract would reset the market. Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones and A.J. Green signed new contracts in 2015, but none exceeded $15 million per year. Fitzgerald’s and Johnson’s deals weren’t eclipsed until Antonio Brown hit $17 million per year in 2017 (a year after Johnson retired), just 10.2 percent of the $167 million cap.
The receiver market has already been reset twice in the past month, and we are on the verge of another jump with Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk all up for new deals. All four could plausibly reset the market, so we might be looking at $35 million per year — which would be 13.7 percent of the cap — or more. That leaves the Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers with big decisions with implications across their rosters.
Teams must take a hard look at where this money will come from. How much is too much for a non-quarterback? Does it make sense for a position group other than QB to exceed 20 percent of a team’s cap? How would that affect decisions elsewhere on the roster?
Jefferson is arguably the best receiver in the league, and Minnesota should certainly extend him. But the cost will tighten money to spend elsewhere, like on last year’s first-round pick, 22-year-old Jordan Addison, when his rookie deal ends. Of course, if the Vikings’ assessment of J.J. McCarthy proves accurate, a quality quarterback on a five-year rookie contract might be just what the doctor ordered. If I were running the Vikings, I would pay Jefferson and keep churning WR2 at the end of Addison’s deal.
Jerry Jones and the Cowboys probably need to be much more creative in dealing with Lamb. Jones already has a $50 million-plus quarterback quandary on his hands, with Dak Prescott having all the leverage in an endless game of chicken. As long as Prescott is the QB, the Cowboys’ evaluation skills might be challenged beyond most as they seek value from other receivers to pair with Lamb.
If I were the Bengals, I would probably sign Chase — who still has two years left on his deal — as soon as possible to avoid resetting the market after Lamb’s and Jefferson’s deals come in. Cincinnati already appears to be planning to let Tee Higgins walk after this season, which might necessitate another high NFL Draft investment at the position next year.
The 49ers have a more complicated situation than the Bengals, having already paid Deebo Samuel ($23.8 million per year, $28.6 million against the cap in 2024) and with Aiyuk ($14.1 million against the cap in 2024) in the last year of his contract. Both players’ names have been popular in trade rumors this offseason. The Niners hedged their bet by drafting Florida receiver Ricky Pearsall in Round 1 last month, giving themselves options at the position.
My crystal ball tells me this group will undergo a renovation after the 2024 season. Aiyuk and Samuel are set to count $42.7 million against the cap this season. Add Pearsall and tight end George Kittle and that’s more than $56 million against the cap (22 percent) for four pass catchers. Samuel is the NFL’s eighth-highest-paid wideout and might rank third in the 49ers’ position room when it comes to route running and ball skills. Something will have to give.
Players deserve whatever they can get — I am not here to dispute this — but even NFL teams with the most creative capologists will eventually be forced to pay for their extensions of credit, just like you and I. So what will they do about the rising costs of receivers?
When players get too expensive, nothing speaks louder than cheaper options.
Teams selected 35 wide receivers in the 2024 draft. That’s not unordinary, but the total of seven picked in Round 1 grabbed my attention. Sure, it might just have been a year with several special talents available. But it also might speak to a few other factors:
1. With experienced receivers becoming more expensive, teams need more cheap talent.
2. In this era of seven-on-seven competitions and wide-open passing offenses in college, receivers have more advanced skills at a younger age.
3. Good talent evaluators can identify and sequence receivers properly, with smoother projections to the NFL.
If you can identify the traits — beyond stats, height, weight and speed — that lend to a reasonably high hit rate on prospects, you can find value. These would be my top three traits, which you can find if you watch enough tape, for a receiver to fit any scheme:
• Create separation at the break point and/or change gears while underway in a route.
• See and distinguish coverage with your mind and reactions (or instincts), pre- and post-snap.
• Consistently extend to catch with your hands near defenders, allowing small guys to play bigger and big guys to be great.
The last few draft classes have been rich in receiver talent. Even in a watered-down free-agent pool this year, there were several good values. In short, you don’t have to pay top-notch to get value at wide receiver.
Some teams, such as the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, have already picked a lane. (Of course, having a talented quarterback makes it easier for them to consider this road.)
The Packers and Chiefs traded Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill before the 2022 season instead of paying them. Adams got $28 million from the Las Vegas Raiders, and Hill got $30 million annually from the Miami Dolphins. The Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans this offseason, two years after signing him to an extension worth $24 million annually.
Though the Adams trade has not exactly worked out for the Raiders, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst has reworked Green Bay’s receivers via the developmental route.
Christian Watson, drafted in the second round in 2022, is a straight-line-fast long-strider who can eat up a cushion, take the top off defenses and catch when he’s covered. His game is similar to that of Jameson Williams, whom the Detroit Lions drafted 22 picks earlier. In Round 4 that year, the Packers took Romeo Doubs, who will make $1.1 million this year after catching 59 passes in 2023. Doubs’ ability to find soft spots and distinguish coverages resembles that of the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown, at least stylistically.
Last year, the Packers took Jayden Reed (64 catches as a rookie) in Round 2 and Dontayvion Wicks (39 catches, 14.9 yards per catch) in Round 5. Given his acceleration off the ball and out of breaks, Wicks might have more upside than any of the above.
Sure, it requires conviction in your evaluations, but Green Bay should be lauded for overhauling this group almost entirely with draft picks (none in Round 1), as those four receivers will cost a total of $6.3 million against the cap in 2024. Other teams should try to copy this economic model.
I’m not saying the Lions are wrong, but it’s a useful comparison. They reset the market by paying St. Brown $30 million per year even though he ranked 71st in the NFL in average air yards per target (7.75) and 39th in average yards per reception (12.7) last season. I understand the importance of keeping peace in the locker room and rewarding hard workers and leaders. He fits their system. But that signing might have ruffled a few feathers outside of the Lions’ front office and fans, who think it is money well spent. The Lions did let 29-year-old wideout Josh Reynolds walk, so they have shown they are willing to make tough choices, too.
The Chiefs, no doubt aided by Patrick Mahomes’ presence, have thrived since bailing on the market and going young, like the Packers. The Bills, with Josh Allen, have taken a similar route this offseason, choosing quantity over quality with reasonably priced veterans in Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Chase Claypool and second-round rookie Keon Coleman, after trading Diggs and letting Gabe Davis walk.
Of course, there are still teams on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Seattle Seahawks paid DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett a total of $41.3 million annually (they restructured Lockett’s deal this offseason), then drafted a receiver (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) in Round 1 in 2023. The Philadelphia Eagles paid Brown and DeVonta Smith this offseason a combined $57 million annually (22.4 percent of the cap), even after signing quarterback Jalen Hurts to a record deal last offseason.
The Eagles made those investments after struggling to draft and develop receivers, missing on top-60 picks in Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Jalen Reagor. I can’t help but wonder: Was paying Brown and Smith a reaction to their previous struggles at the position?
There’s not necessarily a correct way to handle the rising costs at wide receiver. If there is, I’m not sure we know it just yet. Many theories are still being tested.
But here is something to consider: Teams will always have to pay great money for good players at positions where there is true scarcity, like quarterback. But I don’t see wide receiver, especially in the modern NFL, as a position of true scarcity. As a result, the sticker shock of recent contracts has given me pause.
I’m still not for letting any good player walk, but with each market-setting deal, the costs are getting harder to justify.
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RANKING THE OFFENSES Jared Dubin of CBSSports.com ranks the NFL offenses from 32 to 1:
Even in an age where defenses are doing all they can to fight back, offense is still king in the modern NFL. There is nothing more determinative of a team’s success in this league than the quality of its quarterback and the pieces with which the organization surrounds him. If you have the right mixture, you can overcome almost anything else.
Who is your QB? Who is protecting him? Who is catching his passes? Who is next to (or behind) him in the backfield? Who is scheming those players open and putting them in position to succeed? Are there injury and/or depth issues at any or all of those positions?
All the pieces matter. The degree to which they matter varies greatly, of course, but each plays a role in allowing an offense to hum at peak efficiency. With all that in mind, we welcome you to our fifth annual offensive infrastructure rankings.
A few important notes before we begin:
We once again used a weighted grading system where each team was given a 1-5 rating (1 = terrible, 3 = average, 5 = elite) in the following areas: Quarterback, Play-Caller (head coach and/or offensive coordinator), Offensive Line, Pass-Catchers (WR/TE), and Running Backs. Those scores were then weighted so that the quarterback was the most important component of the offense, followed by play-caller, offensive line, and pass-catchers, and then finally running backs, so that the weights reflected as closely as possible the reality of the way modern NFL offenses work.
In the event that teams ended up with the same weighted score, the first tiebreaker was the quarterback score. The second tiebreaker was the non-quarterback score. The third tiebreaker was the combined play-caller, offensive line, and pass-catcher score.
These are not necessarily rankings of how we expect these offenses to perform during the 2024 season. They’re an attempt to capture which offenses are best positioned for success based on the quality of their quarterback and the talent with which the organization has chosen to surround him. There is, of course, the possibility that players elevate their games (as Baker Mayfield did in 2023) or transcend and raise the level of their supporting cast (as C.J. Stroud did last season), or that a quarterback’s subpar performance undermines an otherwise fairly strong offensive unit (like the Falcons a year ago).
The tiers are more rigid than the order within them, and teams within the same tier should be considered of roughly similar quality, as exemplified by their weighted grades. It would take more convincing to move a team up or down a tier than it would to move it ahead of or behind a team in the same tier.
Just as I did the past three years, I compiled an initial draft of these rankings, which I then ran by the rest of the writers, editors, and podcasters on the CBSSports.com NFL staff. I incorporated their feedback to create the version of the rankings you’ll see below. The commentary in each section is mine.
Got all that? OK, great. Here we go …
Tier 6: The Patriots (32)
Team QB PC OL WR/TE RB Total Weighted Non-QB 32. Patriots 2.5 3 2.5 2 3.5 13.5 2.57 2.60
There was quite a bit of separation between New England at the bottom and the next-closest team, so we had to put the Patriots in their own tier. We assumed Jacoby Brissett would be the team’s starter to begin the season, which seems reasonable as the team will likely want to bring Drake Maye along slowly due to the lacking supporting cast the Pats have at the moment.
Tier: 31-29 Team QB PC OL WR/TE RB Total Weighted Non-QB 31. Panthers 2 4 3 2.5 3.5 15 2.80 3.20 T-29. Raiders 2.5 2.5 3 4 3.5 15.5 2.97 3.20 T-29. Broncos 2.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 3.5 15.5 2.97 3.20
Even hiring former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales as their head coach couldn’t lift the Panthers above more than one team. They still have one of the worst pass-catching groups in the NFL, and we can’t upgrade the running back ranking before we see how healthy Jonathon Brooks is coming into the season. And after the way Bryce Young played last year, we had to downgrade his ranking until we see him do better. (That’s why he’s at a 2 while Bo Nix is at 2.5, which is our standard ranking for first-round rookies picked outside the top five.)
The Raiders and Broncos, meanwhile, are tied in total score, weighted score, quarterback score, non-quarterback score, and combined pass-catcher, offensive line, and play-caller score. (We’re assuming that Gardner Minshew will start for Las Vegas.) We had to downgrade Sean Payton’s rating in the play-caller department after last season, while the Broncos have seen some attrition among their pass-catcher corps as well. The Raiders’ depth of pass-catchers (Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer) props up the rest of the group, which looks pretty average.
Tier 5: 27-20
Team QB PC OL WR/TE RB Total Weighted Non-QB T-27. Steelers 2.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 4 16 3.00 3.25 T-27. Giants 2.5 4 3 3 2.5 15 3.00 3.25 26. Commanders 3 3 2.5 3.5 3.5 15.5 3.03 3.05 25. Seahawks 3 3 2.5 4 4.5 17 3.20 3.30 T-23. Saints 3 3 3.5 3.5 3.5 16.5 3.23 3.25 T-23. Buccaneers 3 3 3.5 3.5 3.5 16.5 3.23 3.25 22. Titans 2.5 3.5 3.5 4 3.5 17 3.27 3.65 21. Jaguars 4 2.5 3 3 4 16.5 3.30 2.95 20. Cardinals 3.5 3.5 3 3.5 4 17.5 3.43 3.40
If it weren’t for their unenviable quarterback and pass-catcher situations, the Steelers would look pretty good here. You’ll notice that their non-quarterback score is better than that of a couple teams ahead of them, and equal to three more of them. Arthur Smith is a significant upgrade as the play-caller, even if he leaves something to be desired, and the offensive line has more upside beyond the current rating if the rookies play well. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are a strong RB duo. But the Russell Wilson/Justin Fields combo is uninspiring and the pass-catching corps lacks both star power and depth. The Giants nudge ahead of the Steelers on the strength of the Brian Daboll/Mike Kafka combination having a slightly higher rating than Smith. The Giants are pretty significantly lacking in other areas, though the addition of Malik Nabers is enough to get the pass-catching grade up to average.
We don’t really know what Kliff Kingsbury looks like when he’s *just* the offensive coordinator, so we defaulted to an average grade for him here. Jayden Daniels gets the top-five quarterback pick rating, and the pass-catcher and running back situations feel like they are ever-so-slightly above-average in Washington. There’s a bit of a gap between the Commies at 26 and the Seahawks at 25, but we didn’t feel like it there was enough of a difference among this entire group to do another tier break here.
The Seahawks have the weaponry to outperform this ranking if they get better play from Geno Smith, which seems at least somewhat dependent on both new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and the remade offensive line. Then we have the Saints and Buccaneers, who are tied in every category. Which feels right. Like, that’s the NFC South in a nut shell.
The addition of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to a pass-catcher corps that was extremely lacking a year ago really helped the Titans here, as did the additions of Lloyd Cushenberry and Joe Alt up front. They should get an upgrade in play-caller with new head coach Brian Callahan, one of the architects of the Cincinnati offense over the past few years, but we couldn’t be too aggressive with his rating given that he hasn’t called the plays himself just yet. The Jaguars might be in front of the Cardinals if not for the fact that Doug Pederson keeps trying to make Press Taylor happen. Drew Petzing is a significant advantage for Arizona in that area, and that, plus the Cards adding Marvin Harrison Jr. while the Jags lost Ridley and replaced him with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., was enough to push Arizona ahead despite our giving Trevor Lawrence the nod over Kyler Murray.
Tier 4: 18-14
Team QB PC OL WR/TE RB Total Weighted Non-QB T-18. Bears 3 3.5 3.5 4.5 3.5 18 3.53 3.80 T-18. Jets 4 2 4 3.5 4.5 18 3.53 3.30 T-16. Falcons 3.5 4 4 3.5 4.5 18.5 3.57 3.60 T-16. Chargers 4.5 3.5 4 2 2.5 16.5 3.57 3.10 15. Colts 3 4.5 3.5 4 4.5 19.5 3.70 4.05 14. Browns 3 4 4.5 4 3.5 19 3.73 4.10
We’re into the group of above-average offenses here. Chicago’s offseason renovation of the pass-catching corps (adding Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze), plus the changes at quarterback (Caleb Williams) and offensive coordinator (Shane Waldron replacing Luke Getsy) were enough to lift it out of the bottom few tiers. That might seem aggressive, but if Williams has a good rookie campaign, it could actually look fairly tame. The Bears still wouldn’t be tied with the Jets, though, if New York didn’t insist on keeping Nathaniel Hackett around. But Aaron Rodgers is essentially the general manager there, so that’s the way it goes. The Jets technically check in ahead of the Bears with Rodgers having the higher rating than Williams.
We have another tie at 16, with the Chargers getting the nod over the Falcons on the strength of Justin Herbert’s rating over Kirk Cousins. Herbert, plus the offensive line now having dual anchors in Rashawn Slater and JC Latham, lift the tie for a Chargers offense that looks pretty barren at the skill positions. They could underperform this ranking pretty significantly if that group doesn’t step up. We’ll have to see what happens with the Falcons, with Cousins coming back from a torn Achilles and a new play-caller (Zac Robinson) coming in to take the reins and hopefully, fingers crossed, getting more out of Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Offensive line being worth more than running back in the weighted grading system is what pushes the Browns ahead of the Colts here despite our having downgraded their running back rating with Nick Chubb’s health in question. Giving Deshaun Watson an average rating feels perhaps too kind given his performance since arriving in Cleveland, but we know he has the capability to reach an elite level in there somewhere, so it’s more of a hedge than anything else.
Tier 3: 13-10
Team QB PC OL WR/TE RB Total Weighted Non-QB 13. Vikings 2.5 4 4.5 5 3.5 19.5 3.77 4.40 T-11. Cowboys 4.5 3.5 3.5 4 2.5 18 3.87 3.55 T-11. Ravens 4.5 4 3 3.5 4 19 3.87 3.55 10. Bills 5 3.5 3.5 3 3.5 18.5 3.90 3.35
This is a really interesting tier because we have Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen propping up what are otherwise somewhat ordinary units at this point after they all sustained talent losses this offseason, and then we have the Vikings being dragged down by rookie QB J.J. McCarthy’s rating. Take a look at the non-QB scores and the Vikes come out significantly ahead of the three teams in front of them, but a trio of MVP candidate quarterbacks carry the day for their offenses. If the offensive lines come together for Dallas and/or Baltimore, it of course wouldn’t be a surprise to see them reprise as top-10 offenses, and the same applies to the pass-catchers in Buffalo.
Tier 2: 9-4
Team QB PC OL WR/TE RB Total Weighted Non-QB 9. Dolphins 4 5 2.5 4.5 5 21 4.07 4.10 8. Packers 4 4.5 4 4 4 20.5 4.10 4.15 T-6. Texans 4 4.5 3.5 5 3.5 20.5 4.17 4.25 T-6. Rams 4 5 4 4 3.5 20.5 4.17 4.25 5. Bengals 4.5 4 4 4.5 3 20 4.20 4.05 4. Eagles 4 4 4.5 4.5 4.5 21.5 4.23 4.35
Every team in this tier is average or better in every category except for the Dolphins, whose offensive line is still just not very good. But when you have Mike McDaniel scheming things up and Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane, and now Jaylen Wright, plus Tua Tagovailoa to get them the ball, well, this is where you end up on the list. After the way the Packers played over the latter half of last season, they shot up this list, and could well move up higher if one or more of their pass-catchers breaks out as Jordan Love’s clear-cut top option. Depth is good; having studs is better.
C.J. Stroud performed like an elite quarterback last year. If he does it again, his rating gets bumped up, and the Texans probably do, too. We’d just like to see it again before we grade it that way. Given the addition of Stefon Diggs to the receiver corps and what should hopefully be an improved offensive line, let’s say we’re optimistic about the prospects of a repeat performance. Meanwhile, the Rams are back near the top after the addition of Puka Nacua rejuvenated Matthew Stafford, and after they made some key additions on the offensive line this offseason.
The Eagles nudge ahead of the Bengals by a hair largely because their offensive line is still the superior unit and because the Saquon Barkley-led backfield should be a good deal better than the Zack Moss/Chase Brown pairing. So, even though Joe Burrow has a better rating than Jalen Hurts and the Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins-led skill corps draws even with A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith/Dallas Goedert, the Eagles come out slightly ahead.
Tier 1: 3-1
Team QB PC OL WR/TE RB Total Weighted Non-QB 3. Lions 4 4.5 5 4 4.5 22 4.33 4.50 2. 49ers 4 5 3.5 5 5 22.5 4.37 4.55 1. Chiefs 5 5 4 4.5 4 22.5 4.63 4.45
Here’s the elite tier. Other than San Francisco’s offensive line, each of these three teams has a rating of 4 or better in every category. We have the best quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) and play-callers (Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan) in the league right here, as well as its best offensive line (Detroit) and best skill-position group (Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, et al). Throw in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff and Ben Johnson in Detroit, plus Brock Purdy in San Francisco and Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy and Isiah Pacheco in Kansas City, and it seems rather clear that this trio of teams is ahead of the pack. And the Chiefs, of course, are at the top of the entire pyramid. That’s what having the best player in the league and a perfect synergy with one of the best offensive minds of all time will do for you. |