NFL team owners discussed their pending contract extension with Commissioner Roger Goodell here Tuesday and hope to complete the deal in the coming weeks. The extension is expected to continue Goodell’s tenure as commissioner until at least the spring of 2027.

“There’s definitely progress being made,” Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank said as he left the owners’ two-day meeting at a Minneapolis-area hotel.

Another owner said the extension is basically in order and should be completed soon, adding, “It’s a matter of weeks.”

Goodell, 64, has nearly completed the deal with those owners on the NFL’s compensation committee. But the extension did not become official Tuesday as the owners completed their spring meeting.

“When it’s extended, we’ll let you know,” Goodell said at a news conference. “It’s not extended today, that’s for sure. But, listen, I’ve been focused on other matters. It hasn’t been a point of focus for me. I have a year left. I told you before: I love this job. I have no doubt that we’ll reach … that point at some point.”

Goodell’s contract expires in March.

“Basically I think it’s just dotting the I’s and crossing the T’s, but it’s done through roughly March 2027,” Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay said. “That’s always good news. I think we still have to rubber-stamp it, so to speak, but it’s virtually done.”

For those wondering, Goodell will turn 68 in 2027.

The power wielded by Goodell could be split after that, per Mike Florio.

Commissioner Roger Goodell is poised to sign a new contract that will take him through March 2027. At that point, Goodell apparently will move on.

After he does, the NFL could undergo a major overhaul of the manner in which the league office is managed.

“It could be where we have a CEO of business and of the league and you have a commissioner of football,” Colts owner Jim Irsay said Tuesday, via Jori Epstein of Yahoo Sports. “I think we are looking to grow our business model significantly.”

It’s a concept mentioned in one of the final chapters of Playmakers. As the league grows and grows, it needs a leader who is skilled in managing high-level business, regardless of industry. There’s a skill set unique to CEOs, and the various challenges that the NFL encounters as it gets bigger and bigger may require someone like that, along with a football lifer who can handle the specifics of the game itself. But the CEO would run the overall show.

That approach would dramatically change the current collection of usual suspects whose names are mentioned whenever Goodell’s inevitable departure is discussed. Whether Brian Rolapp or Troy Vincent or whichever current executive lands on the radar screen, searching for a traditional CEO unlocks a new universe of potential leaders of the National Football League.

Regardless of who it is and how they do it, the clock is ticking toward 2027. Irsay said Goodell’s time “apparently” will end then.

Of course, that’s what former NFL spokesman Joe Lockhart said after Goodell signed his current contract. Goodell quickly corrected Lockhart, and before too long Lockhart was long gone.

WASHINGTON

Coach Ron Rivera speaks on EDGE CHASE YOUNG.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Commanders passed on exercising their option on defensive end Chase Young‘s contract for the 2024 season earlier this year, but head coach Ron Rivera said on Wednesday that he doesn’t think that will have a negative impact on Young’s commitment to the team.

While Young is not at OTAs this week, he has been around the facility at other points in the voluntary portion of the offseason program and Rivera said he expects the second pick of the 2020 draft to hit the ground running upon his return to the facility.

“I really believe he’s going to come in and give everything he’s got,” Rivera said, via JP Finlay of NBCSportsWashington.com.

The Commanders made the same option choice with Daron Payne last year and he wound up signing a four-year deal with the team this offseason. That’s a blueprint for how things could play out for Young once he does rejoin the team.

SAN FRANCISCO

QB BROCK PURDY is on-target for a return to action before the start of the season.  Matt Barrows of The Athletic:

The biggest newsmaker from the 49ers’ OTA practice Tuesday didn’t practice at all.

Quarterback Brock Purdy, who’s been limited to throwing light items like towels so far this month, said he’s on track to throw a football next week, the biggest step yet in his recovery from elbow surgery. That puts him right on schedule — and maybe a couple of days ahead of schedule — to be back at full strength at some point before the start of the regular season.

“I feel good, the arm’s been feeling good,” Purdy said after practice.

Coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have said for months they were optimistic Purdy would return to practice at some point in training camp and be ready for the team’s first regular-season game, which is Sept. 10 in Pittsburgh. Asked Tuesday whether that meant early in training camp or late in those sessions, Shanahan declined to give a specific timeline.

“We’re hoping for Week 1,” he said of Purdy’s availability. “And we feel pretty optimistic about that.”

Purdy has been building up the strength in his arm slowly since his March 10 procedure, and he said everything has mostly returned to normal with the arm. For example, he said he’s lifting weights like he normally does.

To this point, however, he hasn’t attempted to throw a football. He’s been side-by-side with the team’s other quarterbacks since the start of the offseason program. But when they drop back and release a football in practices, he’s been using a towel.

“Brock’s healthy in every other aspect,” Shanahan said. “So for Brock, to still be able to do his drops, all his footwork and stuff and you (also) want to be able to simulate a throwing motion. And that’s hard with nothing in your arm. So we use a towel instead.”

go-deeper

The 49ers practiced Monday, too, but Tuesday’s OTA was the first that was open to reporters. Here are other observations.

• Trey Lance, who spent part of the offseason working with throwing coach Jeff Christensen in Dallas, looked like he had a smoother, more compact delivery. With Purdy out of action, Lance took all of the first-team repetitions while Sam Darnold worked with the second-team group.

Shanahan said that would “even out” over time as Darnold becomes more familiar with the offense. He also noted that at this stage of the offseason, practices mainly consist of seven-on-seven situations and that none of the 49ers’ top receivers are participating. So “first-team” offense is a relative term.

Lance said he started to feel fully recovered in late March from the ankle injury that ended his 2022 season and that he’s as healthy as he’s been in a while. At this time last year, he was still dealing with the effects of a 2021 broken index finger that forced him to relearn how to properly grip a football.

“Wrist, hand, arm, shoulder — it all kind of connects, obviously,” he said. “Yeah, it bugged a lot of other things and it was hard to find a way to throw (with the ball) finishing off my middle finger and changing my grip and things like that.”

This offseason, he said, he “focused on the things I need to focus on.”

This from Tim Kawakami on Twitter:

@timkawakami

Pretty key Shanahan quote on the 3 QBs: “We have two guys who are talented enough to be taken in the top five of the draft and we have another guy who played like it last year.”

@timkawakami

If you know Shanahan and how he frames things, he couldn’t be any clearer about the QB situation.

@HalfAMill4Bail

For those of us who don’t,,, what’s this mean lol

@timkawakami

Brock Purdy is the 49ers’ QB.

SEATTLE

A rookie sensation in 2023, CB TARIQ WOOLEN will be coming off a knee tuneup this summer.  Adam Schefter and Brady Henderson of ESPN.com:

Seattle Seahawks Pro Bowl cornerback Tariq Woolen underwent arthroscopic knee surgery Tuesday that is expected to sideline him until training camp, league sources told ESPN.

Woolen, a fifth-round draft selection last year who tied for the league lead with six interceptions as a rookie, injured his knee while walking on the practice field for OTAs one week ago.

Doctors reviewed the injury, and Woolen’s surgery, which took place in Houston, went as well as doctors could have hoped, according to a source.

In an Instagram story later Tuesday, Woolen confirmed that, saying, “I’m fine and surgery was smooth!!! Appreciate the love.”

Woolen is expected to be ready for the start of training camp in late July, but the Seahawks also will proceed carefully with their prized cornerback, according to sources.

BUFFALO

The franchise that may most “deserve” a Super Bowl champion is Buffalo.  So many great teams, but then a long spell of mediocrity.  A passionate fan base in a fringe market and in recent years a consistent level of success.  QB JOSH ALLEN feels all that.  Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com:

In April, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen said that he has never been “as focused or locked in on football than I am right now.”

That approach has continued throughout the offseason, with coach Sean McDermott taking note of Allen’s mindset, saying on Tuesday, “I’ve seen a different Josh this offseason — not that it was bad before — but he’s got a new sense of focus, I would say, and determination, which is good.”

The quarterback’s focus is set squarely on doing what it takes for the team to take a step forward and move past the disappointing playoff losses, including enhancing his communication. He also acknowledged an understanding of the team’s “window” for success and wanting to give everything he has to take advantage of it.

“I so badly want to bring a Super Bowl here to Buffalo,” Allen said Tuesday, “and I just don’t want anything to get in the way of allowing me to be the best quarterback that I can be for this team.”

That drive is coming as Allen, 27, prepares for his sixth season in the NFL without yet achieving the goal of a Super Bowl win or even appearance. Despite leading in offensive points scored per game over the past three seasons (28.2) and ranking second in yards per game (391.8), the Bills have fallen short in the playoffs in three straight seasons (once in the AFC Championship Game and twice in the divisional round). The Bills have also had the second-best regular-season record since 2019 (72.3%) behind the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have won two Super Bowls, and made three appearances, during that stretch.

Since 2020, no player has accounted for a higher percentage of his team’s net yardage (76.6%) or of its offensive touchdowns (80.2%) than Allen. In the past couple of months, the Bills brought in new targets to support the quarterback, including first-round pick tight end Dalton Kincaid, running back Damien Harris and wide receivers Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty. The team has also invested up front in several ways, including drafting O’Cyrus Torrence in the second round.

ADVERTISING

Part of what Allen is doing more behind the scenes is getting on the same page with those players as the first week of voluntary OTAs continues.

“I think communicating to our playmakers, understanding where I want them and making sure that we’re on the same page. Film study, for sure. And then just diving into our playbook, knowing it inside and out,” Allen said on where he has been more locked in. “And whether we’ve got to simplify some things or add more stuff, talking with [offensive coordinator Ken] Dorsey and again, just trying to be a part of his brain and making sure that I’m doing that on the field. And then, just knowing the concepts as well as I can, knowing where my eyes should be and understanding what the defense is trying to do, and how to exploit said defense.”

That work continues despite wide receiver Stefon Diggs not being in attendance Tuesday for the first OTAs open to the media. Allen missed part of Monday’s activities for personal reasons. While Allen said he’d love to have Diggs present, his absence does open up opportunities for other players, including Sherfield. On the field Tuesday, Allen took some time to give pointers to the likes of rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid on certain routes, something he has also done in the past.

McDermott also said that Allen taking his game to the next level also means being a “great decision-maker.” Allen led the league with 19 turnovers in 2022 and has taken the most hits of his career over the past two seasons. While he hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season, keeping Allen healthy is a priority. That extends to being smart about Allen’s usage. He was second on the team with 124 rushing attempts.

“I want to give everything that I have for as long as I play,” Allen said. “I’m not saying that I haven’t done that in the past, but there’s always new ways that I can find to get better, and not being complacent with what I’m doing on the field, understanding that there’s a lot of plays that we left out there. And you know, statistically, you look at it, we were top three, four [in] offense in the league last year, and it wasn’t good enough. So, just losing the playoffs isn’t fun, you know?”

NEW YORK JETS

The good news is that QB AARON RODGERS showed up for the first day of OTA’s.  The bad news is that he promptly strained his calf.  Charles Robinson of YahooSports.comon the angst of Jets fans:

For the majority of Tuesday morning, the NFL’s widescreen football conversation was unfolding in Eagan, Minnesota. Questions abounded at the league’s owners meetings about whether kickoffs were being targeted for elimination from the game; when the Washington Commanders would finally be sold; and how much longer commissioner Roger Goodell would continue his duties as the most highly paid executive in sports history.

It was the typical big picture stuff that simmers at the meetings. And all it took to sweep it off the front end of the news cycle was Aaron Rodgers heading out to a New York Jets practice without a helmet. Just like that, Jets Panic — which deserves a WebMD page at this point — gripped every corner of social media spaces.

Why isn’t Rodgers taking passing reps? Is he limping? What happened? Is this serious?

If you wanted an accurate snapshot of what this Rodgers stint is going to be like with the Jets, this was it. With the euphoria of last month’s trade from the Green Bay Packers tucked away, it was a dose of white-knuckled reality showcasing what it feels like to have so much leveraged on a 39-year-old quarterback. The good times for Jets fans might be as exhilarating as they are hoping for, but the inevitable bumps along the road will be throttled with anxiety. And all it will take to kick it into gear is Rodgers showing virtually any element of a problem. Even one that was as simple as what one team source described as “nothing” and a “slight strain in his calf.”

“I just tweaked my calf in the little pre-practice conditioning and decided to take a vet day,” Rodgers told reporters after the practice.

Asked what he was doing when the injury occurred, Rodgers replied, “I don’t know. Just running, I guess.”

That answer was largely relevant because reporters observed Rodgers stretching his calf after an exercise that involved performing lunges while holding a medicine ball — a warmup routine that Rodgers noted was unlike any he’d done during his career. After the injury, he remained on the field, which is typically an indication it wasn’t serious enough to require immediate therapy.

The reaction from a large portion of the Jets fan base, however, was hardly so muted. It was followed with Zach Wilson memes, an avalanche of Twitter groans about the Jets being cursed and some predicable lamenting about New York having surrendered next season’s first-round draft pick if Rodgers plays only 65% of offensive snaps in 2023.

None of this was all that absurd, of course. Wilson remains just one Rodgers injury away from being the No. 1 quarterback for the Jets again. That is as inescapable as it is frightening for portions of the fan base. But while we’re talking about Wilson, it’s worth mentioning that he reportedly had a good practice while taking Rodgers’ reps on Tuesday. As for the curse thing, well, there has been no shortage of best-laid-plans that devolved into abject failure over the past several decades for the Jets. So that emotional black cloud is at least understandable.

But perhaps the most important point in the totality of fan reaction is that 65% offensive snap threshold, which is always going to be the first thing that jumps to mind if Rodgers suffers any kind of injury. If there is any point of frustration in the Rodgers trade that is bound to continually resurface in the ensuing months, it’s that low bar for kicking a first-round pick to the Packers once Rodgers reaches that benchmark. If he doesn’t play enough snaps, Green Bay gets only a second-rounder from the Jets. The risk tied to that asset is as real as it gets, and the Jets need to take every precaution to avoid banging up Rodgers. And that might include having him do lower body warmups that his 39-year-old joints aren’t accustomed to. God forbid Rodgers had suffered a knee injury jumping around with that medicine ball. Half of New Jersey would have descended onto the Florham Park facility with pitch forks and torches. That’s how much the fan base is invested in this whole thing working out.

That buy-in is also going to be fascinating about the Rodgers experience in New York over the next several months (or years). Even among the many NFL fan bases that go through wild mood swings about the team or a particular player, few rival the peaks and valleys in New York, let alone the breakneck speed at which the heights can sink into the depths. It’s not so much a roller coaster as it is a shuttle launch into space followed by a careening descent back to Earth.

THIS AND THAT

PREDICTIONS FROM FPI

Seth Walder is ESPN’s mentor for its Football Power Index.  Here, he tells us what FPI is saying about 2023.

The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are the No. 1 team in ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings for the 2023 NFL season. But interestingly, the model actually views the Philadelphia Eagles — who lost to the Chiefs in the title game last season — as the Super Bowl favorite. It’s a result of the vast difference in quality between the NFL’s two conferences: The AFC is loaded with talent, while the NFC appears to have only a few contenders, paving the way for Philly.

For the uninitiated, the Football Power Index — commonly referred to as the FPI — is our rating and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model’s predictive ratings are based substantially on win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of schedule, along with factors such as past team performance and returning starters. We use team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections, which update every day during the season. Game predictions are also informed by factors such as travel, rest differential and changes at starting quarterback.

Let’s take a closer look at the initial 2023 ratings, including storylines emerging from these numbers.

Chiefs at No. 1 overall

Who else, really, could be No. 1? Offense is more stable year-to-year than defense, and the Chiefs led the league in expected points added per play last season by a wide margin. They are also returning their two most important ingredients in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Offensively, they are just too good, and that alone is enough to put the Super Bowl champs back atop the league to begin this coming season.

After Kansas City, the pattern holds — the Buffalo Bills and Eagles were the two next-best teams in offensive EPA per play last season, and they rank Nos. 2 and 3 here, respectively. (The Detroit Lions, who ranked fourth in the category, are 11th in FPI because of a much weaker defense and perhaps less confidence in Jared Goff repeating his excellent 2022 campaign.)

The Cincinnati Bengals are fourth in FPI rating, as they return their key offensive triumvirate of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Cincy has also added Orlando Brown Jr. at left tackle to shore up its biggest weakness. Rounding out the top five are the San Francisco 49ers. Despite a lack of clarity at quarterback with Brock Purdy recovering from elbow surgery, their roster and Kyle Shanahan’s offensive playcalling are strong enough to justify a high rating.

2023 NFL Football Power Index rankings

Rank     Team                  Rating 

1          Chiefs                 +6.4    

2          Bills                    +5.6    

3          Eagles                +5.0    

4          Bengals            +4.6     

5          49ers                 +3.6    

6          Jets                   +3.2    

7          Chargers           +3.0     

8          Cowboys           +3.0     

9          Dolphins            +3.0     

10         Ravens              +2.0    

11         Lions                 +1.4    

12         Jaguars              +0.9    

13         Broncos            +0.9     

14         Giants                +0.5    

15         Vikings              +0.5    

16         Patriots               +0.3    

17         Browns               +0.2

18         Seahawks         +0.1

19         Steelers            -0.4

20         Raiders               -0.6

21         Commanders     -1.4

22         Saints                -1.8

23         Rams                 -2.4

24         Bears                 -2.4

25         Packers            -2.8

26         Falcons              -3.2

27         Panthers           -3.4

28         Titans                -3.5

29         Colts                  -5.1

30         Buccaneers       -5.5

31         Cardinals           -5.8

32         Texans              -6.1

(DB aside – the Jaguars at #12 are tops among the eight teams in the two South divisions, with the Saints next at #22).

Eagles to the Super Bowl?

The median AFC playoff team in our simulations is roughly 2.4 points per game better than the median NFC playoff team. That’s a big reason Philadelphia leads Kansas City in Super Bowl chances, 14% to 13%. The Chiefs also face quite the gauntlet of a schedule in the regular season — second toughest in the league, according to FPI — which dampens their projections despite being the best team in football by almost a full point. The 49ers, Bills and Bengals round out the top five, while the Dallas Cowboys are the only other team above 5% (7%).

That the Eagles are the favorites at just 14% is an indication that this season is a little more wide open than most. FPI has made preseason predictions going back to 2015, and 14% is the second lowest for a favorite we’ve had in that time period. The 2016 Packers were just 12% favorites (lowest), while the 2017 Patriots were at 32%, the strongest by a massive margin. (We’ve altered the model a few times in that period, so it’s not a direct apples-to-apples comparison.)

Best chance to win the Super Bowl

Rank     Team             Chance

1          Eagles             14%

2          Chiefs              13%

3          49ers               11%

4          Bills                   9%

5          Bengals            9%

6          Cowboys           7%

7          Lions                 4%

8          Jets                   4%

9          Ravens              3%

10         Chargers           3%

11         Dolphins            3%

12         Jaguars              3%

Tight races in NFC South, NFC North and AFC East

Three divisions emerged from the projections as especially close. The woebegone NFC South might not have a ton going for it in 2023 — every team ranks 22nd or worse in the FPI — but it is very much up for grabs. The New Orleans Saints, with new quarterback Derek Carr at the helm, are the projected winners but at just 42% — the shortest favorites in any division. The Atlanta Falcons (29%), Carolina Panthers (22%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9%) follow, each with at least a feasible path to the division title. But every NFC South team has a mean projected win total under nine.

Over in the NFC North, the Lions are 43% favorites. Although the Minnesota Vikings won the division last season with 13 wins, and the Lions missed the playoffs with nine, there’s evidence that Detroit was — and is — the better team. It had a higher points differential (plus-26) than Minnesota (minus-3) a year ago, and the Lions ranked fourth in EPA per play on offense (Minnesota was 15th). The Vikings have a 29% shot at the division, with the Chicago Bears (16%) and Green Bay Packers (12%) lurking behind.

The AFC East is also tight, but for a more compelling reason. The entire division ranks in the top half of the FPI’s rankings. Buffalo, which boasts the second-highest FPI rating in the league, has only a 44% shot to win the division because the New York Jets (25%) and Miami Dolphins (22%) pose legitimate threats. Because of the strength of the division, the New England Patriots have just an 8% chance to win despite being the 16th-best team in the league in the model’s view.

Here come the Jets!

It’s amazing what Aaron Rodgers (and a strong defense) can do for a team. The Jets are sixth in the ratings and have a win total of 9.5 (but it is shaded toward the over and comes despite a difficult schedule). They ranked fifth in EPA per play on defense last season but 29th on offense. Obviously, the expectation is that things will change substantially with a Hall of Fame quarterback.

Now, the high rating doesn’t mean the Jets’ projections are all that strong. We’re talking about a team with a 25% chance to win the division and a 4% shot at winning the Super Bowl. That’s the schedule, strength of the division and conference talking. The Jets can simultaneously be a good team and have a tough road to success, which is what the FPI is suggesting. Still, I didn’t think New York was a lock to be ahead of the Dolphins, and it’s a good sign for the Jets that the numbers fell that way.

This is the FPI’s ninth season making preseason projections, and it is the first time the Jets have even a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl — let alone 4% — entering the season.

Patriots face the NFL’s toughest schedule

Everyone knows measuring strength of schedule by the previous season’s win percentage is deeply flawed. The Bengals are certainly a more formidable opponent than the Vikings, for example, even though Minnesota won more games last year. Using the FPI, we can get much closer to a true measure of schedule strength because it’s looking at opponents based on their forecasted strength. And when it runs the numbers, there’s one team that sticks out with the toughest schedule: the Patriots.

It probably shouldn’t be much of a surprise, as the other three teams in the AFC East all sit in the top nine of the FPI and the Patriots must face them all twice. Plus, New England squares off against both participants in last year’s Super Bowl.

At the other end of the spectrum are the Saints, who have the easiest slate in the NFL. New Orleans gets the benefit of playing in the weak NFC South and doesn’t face a single team in the FPI’s top 10 the entire season.

FPI evaluates schedule strength

Toughest schedules       Easiest schedules

1. Patriots                         1. Saints

2. Chiefs                           2. Falcons

3. Bills                               3. Colts

4. Dolphins                        4. Panthers

5. Jets                               5. Texans

Is Sean Payton the Broncos’ savior?

Fresh off an utterly disappointing 2022 campaign that resulted in a not-even-one-and-done for Nathaniel Hackett, the Denver Broncos’ FPI rating looks … surprisingly optimistic? Russell Wilson is still at quarterback, but Payton is in as the new coach, and according to the model, the Broncos could be quite respectable in 2023. Denver ranks 13th in FPI, is projected for 8.4 wins and, despite playing in the AFC, is getting a 34% chance to reach the playoffs.

But it’s not just Payton. There’s a lot of talent on the Broncos. The defense ranked eighth in EPA per play last season, and Wilson was top-10 in QBR just two years ago. Plus, the team has an awfully strong receiving group — Jerry Jeudy’s receiver tracking metrics suggest he broke out more than his 972 receiving yards last season might indicate — and added to an already strong offensive line this offseason. The big concern remains Wilson, but if he can figure it out, there’s quite a bit to like in Denver.

FPI buying new eras for Lions, Jaguars

On the heels of strong 2022 campaigns, the FPI is in on the hype around the Lions (No. 11) and Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 12). For the Lions, the news is even better. As the fourth-best team in the weak NFC, Detroit has a 65% chance to reach the playoffs and a 4% shot to win the Super Bowl — seventh highest among all teams. The Jaguars’ projections aren’t much worse because they play in a weak division, which actually gives them a slightly higher chance to reach the playoffs (67%) and still a 3% shot to win the Super Bowl.

Both teams have shown proven success on offense with their current quarterbacks, as both ranked in the top 10 in EPA per play last season. Goff ranked fifth in QBR last season for Detroit, while Trevor Lawrence ranked 15th (but was burdened with a poor offensive line and a weak wide receiver room that has since added Calvin Ridley).

Cardinals’ inside track to No. 1 draft pick

Even without the trade with the Texans, who selected Will Anderson Jr., the Arizona Cardinals would have been the favorites to land the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, according to the FPI. The Cardinals’ own selection has an 18% chance to be the No. 1 pick. But right behind them are the Houston Texans at 13%. The Cardinals own Houston’s pick, thanks to the Texans’ draft-day move up to No. 3 to draft Anderson. In other words, before playing a down this year, the Cardinals have a 31% shot at the No. 1 selection in 2024. Those two picks have a 57% and 46% chance to be in the top five, respectively, as well.

It’s not a shock to see Arizona as the team most likely to have the fewest wins. With Kyler Murray’s health status up in the air, the team seems likely to start Colt McCoy at quarterback and has holes on the roster.

The Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Rams — yes, the Rams actually control their own first-round pick next year — are the three next most likely teams to earn that No. 1 selection.

2023 DRAFT – ROOKIE PROJECTIONS

Mike Clay of ESPN.com anticipates which 2023 rookies will post the best stats (i.e. have the most fantasy value):

It has been nearly a month since the 2023 NFL draft, and we now have a much better grasp of what each team’s roster core will look like this season. That means we can start to project expectations for this year’s batch of rookies. First-year players tend to experience a learning curve, but we will see plenty of standouts right out of the gate. Which newly drafted players will lead the pack in major statistical categories? How many yards should we expect to see from first-round QBs Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson? What are reasonable expectations for Bijan Robinson? And who will pace all rookies in tackles and sacks?

Let’s take a look at the top-five projected leaders among rookies in a variety of categories for the 2023 season. These team and player projections are my own, compiled through a process that is both quantitative (league, team, coaching and player trends) and qualitative (projected depth chart placement and role). And for full statistical outlooks, you can head over to our projections page to sort and filter through the entire league. I update them often leading up to the start of the season.

Passing yards and touchdowns

1. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 3,553 yards, 19 TDs

2. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 3,348 yards, 17 TDs

3. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 2,889 yards, 16 TDs

4. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 629 yards, 3 TDs

5. Stetson Bennett, Los Angeles Rams: 522 yards, 3 TDs

Let’s get this out of the way quickly: Barring injury, Young (first overall), Stroud (second) and Richardson (fourth) are going to play early and often as rookies, and it won’t be a surprise if all three are under center in Week 1. The history of the position tells the story. From 2011 to 2022, 31 of 37 first-round QBs (84%) took over as the starter prior to Week 10, including 17 (46%) who started in Week 1. Of the 16 QBs picked in the top four, 11 started in Week 1 and three others took over by Week 5, leaving Jared Goff (Week 11) and Trey Lance (Jimmy Garoppolo’s backup) as the exceptions.

Zoning in on Young and Stroud, 12 QBs picked either first or second overall since 2011 appeared in at least 10 games as a rookie. Those 12 averaged 3,389 yards and 17.4 touchdown passes. If we conservatively project 15 starts for Young and Stroud and take their underwhelming supporting casts into account, projections near those recent league averages make sense. Note that, of the 37 QBs drafted in the first round since 2011, only nine reached 20 passing TDs as rookies.

Richardson’s passing numbers are a bit lower, but as we’ll get to later, that’s partially because he’s expected to add substantial value with his legs. More scrambles, of course, means fewer pass attempts. Levis (second-round pick) and Bennett (fourth-round) could get some late-season starts in relief of Ryan Tannehill or Matthew Stafford, respectively, if their teams aren’t playoff contenders.

Rushing yards and touchdowns

1. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: 1,118 yards, 8 TDs

2. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: 738 yards, 7 TDs

3. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 609 yards, 5 TDs

4. Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks: 479 yards, 3 TDs

5. Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans: 303 yards, 2 TDs

Robinson is the major standout here after he was selected with the No. 8 overall pick of April’s draft. Tracing back to 2012, we’ve had six running backs selected in the top 10: Ezekiel Elliott (1,631 rushing yards), Saquon Barkley (1,307), Todd Gurley (1,106), Leonard Fournette (1,040), Trent Richardson (950) and Christian McCaffrey (435). Each of them finished as a top-10 fantasy running back as a rookie, and only McCaffrey (who did most of his damage as a receiver) was under 229 carries. Even if he defers some carries to impressive second-year RB Tyler Allgeier, Robinson won’t be short massive volume and should put up similar numbers to those previous high-pick backs.

Gibbs barely missed the top 10 after Detroit selected him No. 12 overall. We’ve seen plenty of success from mid-to-late first-round RBs (Doug Martin, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs all ran for at least 1,150 yards), but we’ve also had a few duds (Mark Ingram, David Wilson and Rashaad Penny were held below 500 yards). Gibbs’ running mate, David Montgomery, is certain for an offensive role, and that’s likely to come on early downs and near the goal line, especially considering Gibbs is smaller and a terrific asset in the passing game. Gibbs is positioned for a big rookie season, and he doesn’t need a 1,000-yard rushing campaign in order for it to be a success story.

The aforementioned Richardson is looking to become the fifth quarterback in NFL history to rush for 600 yards as a rookie. That may suggest this projection is too high, but his rare physical traits and likelihood of starting most of the Colts’ games position him to get to the mark. In fact, Robert Griffin’s rookie QB record of 815 yards is certainly in jeopardy. Cam Newton (706), Lamar Jackson (695) and Josh Allen (631) are the others who reached the 600 mark. One quick fantasy note here: Since 2011, eight QBs have finished 13th or better in fantasy points as a rookie, and all eight produced at least 213 rushing yards (442.3 average) and four rush TDs (6.4 average). Richardson has some risk, but he’s an intriguing fantasy sleeper.

Second-round pick Charbonnet landed in a tough spot as a complementary back to Kenneth Walker III in Seattle, which is certainly going to limit his output. Titans third-rounder Spears was extremely efficient at Tulane, and he’ll battle Hassan Haskins and Julius Chestnut for the No. 2 gig behind Derrick Henry in Tennessee this season. And Bears fourth-round rookie Roschon Johnson (281 yards) just missed the cut, but he’s a name to watch, with Khalil Herbert and

Receiving yards and touchdowns

T-1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks: 766 yards, 6 TDs

T-1. Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings: 766 yards, 5 TDs

3. Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers: 715 yards, 5 TDs

4. Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers: 659 yards, 3 TDs

5. Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens: 616 yards, 5 TDs

After three consecutive drafts in which at least three wide receivers were selected prior to pick No. 20, there were none this past April. In fact, Smith-Njigba, Johnson, Flowers and Addison were selected with four straight picks (Nos. 20-23) and were the only WRs picked in the first round. This area of the draft has rarely been a breeding ground for big rookie seasons. Since 2011, 17 WRs have been drafted in the 15-25 range, and only three of the 17 reached 800 yards (Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson). And interestingly, only four of the 17 even played in at least 16 regular-season games, as the whole lot averaged 12.2 games played.

Smith-Njigba was the most highly regarded WR in this class, but he’s stepping into an offense where he’ll be no higher than third on the depth chart (behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett). Addison has the easiest path to snaps among the first-round receivers, as his top competition for snaps opposite Jefferson will be KJ Osborn.

Johnston is in a similar spot to Smith-Njigba, with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen locked in atop the Chargers’ depth chart. And Flowers will need to overcome a low-volume Baltimore passing game that will also feature Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham Jr. and perhaps Rashod Bateman. Mingo was the fifth WR drafted in April, and with DJ Chark and Adam Thielen his top competition, the rookie could quickly emerge as Young’s top target.

Packers receiver Jayden Reed (585 yards), Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (493) and Chiefs wideout Rashee Rice (456) just missed the cut. Kincaid’s projection of 493 yards would rank 10th among rookie TEs over the past decade.

Running back receiving yards and touchdowns

1. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: 379 yards, 2 TDs

2. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: 376 yards, 2 TDs

3. Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks: 187 yards, 1 TD

4. Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins: 142 yards, 1 TD

5. Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals: 139 yards, 1 TD

Since 2011, 16 rookie RBs have posted a top-10 fantasy campaign. Those 16 averaged 409 receiving yards, and 11 of them were in the 250-500-yard range. That might suggest that these Gibbs and Robinson projections are too low, but not when you factor in some injury risk (three missed games for RBs is a conservative projection) and the recent league-wide dip in efficiency for backs in the passing game (5.7 yards per target over the past three seasons, compared to 6.1 over the prior nine years).

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Regardless, Gibbs is expected to be a featured passing-game target in Detroit, and the same goes for Robinson in Atlanta. Gibbs gets the small edge here, as he’ll likely have fewer obligations in the run game and will be working in a more voluminous pass game that projects for nearly 80 more attempts than Atlanta’s offense.

Charbonnet is a superior passing-game prospect to Walker, but limited snaps and a lot of mouths to feed in Seattle won’t allow him many targets. Miami will carve out a role for speedy third-rounder Achane, but his snaps will be limited by his 5-foot-8, 188-pound frame, as well as the presence of reliable Jeff Wilson Jr. and explosive Raheem Mostert. And Brown is battling Trayveon Williams to replace Samaje Perine as Joe Mixon’s primary backup in Cincinnati.

Just missing the top five: Dallas’ Deuce Vaughn (127 yards) and Spears (117).

Touchdowns from scrimmage

1. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: 10

2. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: 9

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks: 6

T-4. Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens: 5

T-4. Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings: 5

T-4. Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers: 5

Touchdowns by rookies are on the decline, as the 139 scored in 2022 were the fourth-fewest by first-year players over the past decade, while the 133 in 2021 were the second-fewest. And that’s despite a full extra week of games. Twenty rookies reached 10 TDs during the span, though zero did last season (Christian Watson and Walker each scored nine, Jahan Dotson scored seven and no one else cleared five).

Of the 20 double-digit TD scorers, 15 were running backs, so it should be no surprise that Robinson and Gibbs lead this list. Robinson could lose the occasional red zone touch to Cordarrelle Patterson or Allgeier, but his combination of role, talent and size (215 pounds) will allow plenty of scoring opportunities. Gibbs is 199 pounds and will lose goal-line work to 222-pound Montgomery, but note that Detroit had 27 touchdowns scored by a running back last season, and the man he’s essentially replacing (D’Andre Swift) scored at least seven TDs all three seasons in Detroit. Both Robinson and Gibbs are projected for two receiving TDs, which may seem conservative, but consider that only 12 rookie RBs have cleared that number over the past decade, and only McCaffrey (five), Alvin Kamara (five), Barkley (four) and David Johnson (four) had more than three.

Receivers Smith-Njigba, Addison, Flowers and Johnston round out the projected TD leaders. None are above six for the reasons laid out earlier. In fact, the aforementioned 17 WRs previously drafted in the Nos. 15-25 range averaged 3.0 touchdown receptions during their rookie seasons, and none had more than seven. Expanding to all rookies over the past decade, only 14 have reached eight receiving TDs in their first seasons; none did it in 2022, and Ja’Marr Chase (13) was the only one in 2021.

Kincaid projects for four TDs, which would tie him for ninth among TEs over the past decade. Only three rookie tight ends reached seven during the span, including Hunter Henry (eight), Pat Freiermuth (seven) and Joseph Fauria (seven).

Tackles

1. Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions: 97

T-2. Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks: 67

T-2. Emmanuel Forbes, Washington Commanders: 67

T-4. Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots: 63

T-4. Deonte Banks, New York Giants: 63

Rookies totaled a decade-high 3,875 tackles last season, which came after a lowly 3,078 (second-fewest over the past decade) in 2021. First-year players are averaging 3,291 during the 10-year span.

Shaquille Leonard’s 163 tackles in 2018 are the most by a rookie over the past decade, though he is one of only four rookies (all picked in the first two rounds of the draft) to reach 130 during the span. One of those four was Jalen Pitre, who led all first-years with 147 tackles last season. It was a pretty good year for rookie defenders, as Quay Walker (119), Devin Lloyd (115) and Jaquan Brisker (104) all reached triple-digits.

A linebacker will generally lead the rookie class in sacks, so Campbell gets a big edge here as the only off-ball backer selected in the first two rounds of April’s draft. It wouldn’t be too unusual for a safety to lead the way in tackles — Pitre, Jeremy Chinn (116 in 2020) and T.J. Ward (105 in 2010) pulled off the feat — but that’s unlikely in 2023, as no safeties were drafted in the first round and only two were chosen in Round 2.

The lack of early-round linebackers and safeties explains why these projections seem low — and why there are so many cornerbacks in the top five. In fact, Witherspoon, Forbes, Gonzalez and Banks were the only defensive backs selected in the first round. All four are good bets to start in Week 1, which should allow 60-plus tackles across the board.