NEW YORK GIANTS

WR DARIUS SLAYTON wants a raise, but he was at Giants OTA’s on Tuesday.  Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post:

Darius Slayton rejoined the Giants.

After skipping the first two phases of the voluntary offseason program and the first week of OTA practices, Slayton was back on the practice field Tuesday, according to the team website.

It is unclear if Slayton showed up as an act of good faith or his appearance is a sign that his contract dispute is close to being settled.

Slayton is seeking a raise over his $2.5 million base salary (plus a $2.6 million roster bonus) on the two-year, $12 million contract he signed in March 2023.

Michael Perrett, Slayton’s agent, did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Post.

Tuesday marked the first time the Giants had Slayton, who has led the team in receiving yards in four of his first five NFL seasons, and first-round draft pick Malik Nabers practicing together.

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The Giants check in at #31 in ProFootballFocus.com’s roster rankings.  Just ahead of Denver and one behind Carolina.

31. NEW YORK GIANTS

Biggest strength in 2023: Coverage

Headlined by free safety Xavier McKinney and linebacker Bobby Okereke, the Giants’ coverage unit was respectable last season. They ranked 16th in team coverage grade, which kept the team in several games despite an enormous number of injuries on offense. The challenge this season will be the loss of McKinney to free agency, though New York did draft Tyler Nubin to replace him.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Offensive Line

The Giants’ offensive line was by far the NFL’s worst in PFF grade last season. The combination of injuries to veterans and struggles from young players led to immense struggles in the pass and run games. There is hope if Andrew Thomas returns to full health this season and veteran signings Jon Runyan and Jermaine Eluemunor can stabilize the production up front.

X-factor for 2024: OT Evan Neal

Evan Neal’s struggles are emblematic of the Giants’ offensive line struggles as a whole. He has posted just a 42.5 overall grade through his first two seasons. 2024 is a make-or-break year for Neal, and there could be pressure on him to perform early in the season, with Jermaine Eluemunor fully capable of starting at right tackle in his stead.

Rookie to watch: WR Malik Nabers

Nabers, a first-rounder out of LSU, is the Giants’ most talented receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. He led all FBS wide receivers in overall grade in 2023 and is dangerous outside or in the slot. He’s the perfect chess piece for Brian Daboll’s offense. The Giants just need to find out whether Daniel Jones or someone else will be throwing to Nabers long term.

Over/Under 6.5 win total: Under

The Giants will get their starting quarterback back from injury and added Brian Burns to fill out their defensive line, but their offensive line was in shambles last season and their secondary lost its best player. They also gained Malik Nabers but lost Saquon Barkley. There is a world where the Giants’ defense keeps the team in a lot of games, but their offense is reliant on a ton of young players and a quarterback who struggled last season before tearing his ACL.

NEW ORLEANS

A torn Achilles for DE TANOH KPASSAGNON per Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Saints will not have one of their key defensive players due to a significant injury.

Head coach Dennis Allen said during his Tuesday press conference that defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon tore his Achilles during the offseason.

While Kpassagnon will be sidelined to start the season, Allen noted there’s a chance he could return at some point during the year.

After beginning his career as a Chiefs second-round pick in 2017, Kpassagnon signed with the Saints as a free agent in 2021. He has recorded 9.5 sacks with the Saints over the last three seasons. In 2023, he totaled 3.5 sacks with four tackles for loss and nine QB sacks, playing a rotational role for all 17 games. He was on the field for 37 percent of defensive snaps and 14 percent of special teams snaps.

Kpassagnon has 16.5 career sacks with 22 tackles for loss and 41 quarterback hits in 101 games with 34 starts.

It’s “TAH-noh PASS-ən-yoh.”

SAN FRANCISCO

Jim Wyman and Dalton Wasserman of ProFootballFocus.com ranks the 49ers with the #1 overall roster in the NFL.

1. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Biggest strength in 2023: Offensive Playmakers

San Francisco had three players who ranked inside the top two of their position in overall grade last season — Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. They also had Deebo Samuel, who finished 12th among wide receivers in receiving grade. Simply put, the 49ers are still stacked with offensive weaponry.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Pass Protection

The 49ers struggled to pass protect last season, culminating with Brock Purdy being pressured on nearly half of his dropbacks in the team’s Super Bowl loss. Their 57.2 team pass-blocking grade ranked 24th in the NFL and was the only facet where they ranked outside the top 12. They need to improve their pass protection in true dropback situations in order to get themselves over the hump and win a championship.

X-factor for 2024: S Talanoa Hufanga

Hufanga suffered a season-ending injury in Week 11 last year, and the 49ers’ defense wasn’t quite the same thereafter. Through Week 11, they led the league in team defense grade. From Week 12 onward, they ranked 14th. Hufanga brings versatility and ball skills at safety and his recovery, along with Ji’Ayir Brown’s development, will be welcomed at the position.

Rookie to watch: OL Dominick Puni

Third-round pick Dominick Puni is a versatile lineman who was a fine pass protector at guard and tackle for Kansas over the last two seasons. Puni finished 2023 with an elite 90.4 pass-blocking grade. He certainly won’t play left tackle with Trent Williams still in tow, but he could help elsewhere early in his career.

Over/Under 11.5 win total: Over

Despite their Super Bowl loss, the 49ers are arguably the most talented team in the NFL. They are loaded with playmakers on offense who provide the perfect environment for Brock Purdy to succeed. They consistently boast a top-five defense. Patrick Mahomes has twice been the primary obstacle in their quest for a Lombardi Trophy. There are no such hurdles, however, in their consistent regular season success. Twelve wins is the expectation for this team.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

QB STETSON BENNETT meets the media and vaguely describes where he’s been for the last eight months.   Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com:

Speaking for the first time since he was placed on the reserve/non-football illness list last September, Los Angeles Rams backup quarterback Stetson Bennett confirmed his time away from the team was related to his mental health.

Bennett said he wanted to keep the reason for his absence “in-house,” but when asked if it be “accurate to say that it fell under the umbrella of mental health,” Bennett said, “Yeah, I’d say that.”

Bennett, a 2023 fourth-round draft pick out of Georgia, was expected to back up Rams starting quarterback Matthew Stafford last season. Instead, Bennett went home.

“Thank goodness that [general manager] Les [Snead] and Coach [Sean] McVay and everybody involved allowed me to do that,” Bennett said.

Bennett said he was “nervous the first day” he was back during the team’s offseason program, but that it has “gotten better each day.” When asked if he expected to be back with the Rams this season, he said “Yeah.”

“It’s been a pleasure working with him,” offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said. “I’m not going to get too much into specifics obviously, but he’s in a good place and he is out here. He’s done a great job being a sponge. … He’s come to work every single day focused with the intent of getting better. And that’s all you can ask these guys. Just if their intent is right, which Stetson’s is right now, that’s all you can ask. And it’s definitely shown.”

Without Bennett on the roster last season, Brett Rypien was the Rams’ No. 2 quarterback. He started one game for an injured Stafford in Week 9 but was cut the following week after the Rams scored just three points.

Los Angeles replaced Rypien with veteran quarterback Carson Wentz, who won the regular-season finale for the Rams, even as McVay rested several of his starters against the San Francisco 49ers.

The Rams signed Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency to back up Stafford this season, but the veteran quarterback will miss the first two games of the season while serving a suspension for violating the NFL’s performance enhancing substances policy.

Bennett said his time away from the team last year reminded him how much he loves the game of football and gave him a glimpse of what his life would be without it.

“And so you kind of come out here and you’re hungry every single day,” Bennett said. “And I don’t know, it did make me like, ‘Hey, this is … You want to do this and you want to work hard every single day and get better.'”

DENVER

The team that ProFootballFocus.com thinks currently has the worst roster in the NFL?  Denver.

32. DENVER BRONCOS

Biggest strength in 2023: Offensive Line

Other than at center, which is up in the air after Lloyd Cushenberry III’s departure, the Broncos have a very well-rounded offensive line. Quinn Meinerz was a breakout star last season, posting an 83.7 grade that ranked third among all guards. Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey form one of the more solid tackle duos in the league, which will be huge for rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

Center is the biggest question mark, as the Broncos don’t feature anyone with significant NFL experience on the roster. The current expectation is that 2022 fifth-rounder Luke Wattenberg will take over that role, but he has only 129 career snaps to his name, and those came primarily at guard. Alex Forsyth, Sam Mustipher or Calvin Throckmorton could also be candidates to take over the role.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Defense

Outside of Patrick Surtain II, this defense lacks playmakers at every level. The unit was responsible for a 70-point debacle against the Dolphins in 2023 that made them the laughingstock of the league. Things improved dramatically throughout the season, as defensive coordinator Vance Joseph managed to do damage control and reorganize the defense in a more favorable manner, but there are still a lot of holes that weren’t fixed.

While the defense shouldn’t be as bad as it was last season, don’t expect any miracles in 2024.

X-factor for 2024: QB Bo Nix

The Broncos received some flak for selecting Bo Nix with the 12th overall selection, but there may not have been a better player-team draft fit. Sean Payton’s West Coast offense fits perfectly with Nix’s propensity for quick timing routes that Drew Brees used to work to perfection. As far as scheme goes, Nix is in as good a position to succeed early in his career as any of the class’ six first-round quarterbacks.

Rookie to watch: WR Troy Franklin

Another example of the Broncos working to make sure Bo Nix’s transition to the NFL is as smooth as possible, the team selected his top receiver at Oregon in Troy Franklin in the fourth round. Franklin and Nix were as good a one-two punch as there was in college football, and with how thin the Broncos’ receiving room looks after the Jerry Jeudy trade, Franklin should have an opportunity to compete early.

Over/Under 5.5 win total: Under

While Bo Nix seems to be set up nicely for success, Denver’s style of offense will struggle to keep up if the defense digs them into a hole. This offense isn’t built to play from behind. Unless several members across the defense step up in a big way, the team will struggle to make much noise in what is expected to once again be a strong AFC.

KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs come in at #2 in ProFootballFocus.com’s roster rankings:

2. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Biggest strength in 2023: Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes is the great equalizer for this team. Not only did Chiefs receivers have a lot of problems, but his offensive tackles were shaky as well, as neither Donovan Smith nor Jawaan Taylor managed a PFF grade of 60. Yet it didn’t matter, as the Chiefs won the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season and the third time in five years. As long as Mahomes is under center, the Chiefs should always be considered among the favorites in the AFC.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Offensive Tackle

The Chiefs added two new tackles last offseason to try and shore up their offensive line, and neither paid major dividends. Donovan Smith manned the left side to the tune of a career-low 57.8 grade while Jawaan Taylor was even worse on the right side with a 49.8 grade that was 72nd out of 81 qualifying tackles. Taylor was also the most heavily penalized player in the league last season with 23. The next closest player on either side of the ball had 18 flags thrown against him.

Smith is currently a free agent, and Taylor projects to continue to man the right side of Kansas City’s line. While the Chiefs didn’t address tackle in free agency, they did select BYU’s Kingsley Suamataia with their second-round selection to compete with Wanya Morris and Lucas Niang for the left tackle spot.

X-Factor for 2024: WR Rashee Rice

Rice is more of an X-factor for off-the-field reasons than on. As a rookie second-rounder in 2023, Rice was a revelation for the Chiefs down the stretch, as he caught 79 passes for 938 yards and seven scores with an 85.0 PFF grade. However, Rice has had a tumultuous offseason with various legal troubles that could land him a suspension and set this offense back. Whether that suspension occurs in 2024 or has to be delayed until 2025 due to the legal process, the Chiefs losing Rice for any period of time could be detrimental to this offense’s effectiveness. If Rice can avoid suspension in 2024, though, with the moves the team made at wide receiver in the offseason this has the potential to be the most talented group of pass catchers that Mahomes has ever had to work with.

Rookie to watch: WR Xavier Worthy

Regardless of Rice’s legal situation, the Chiefs’ receiver room still needed a boost heading into the draft. They signed Marquise Brown away from the Cardinals and selected Texas speedster Xavier Worthy with their first-round pick. Worthy made history at the NFL combine by running a 4.21-second 40-yard dash, the fastest recorded time at the event ever. Worthy isn’t just a speed demon, though, as he had a very productive career at Texas, catching at least 50 passes for over 600 yards and five scores in all three of his collegiate seasons. The Chiefs haven’t had a speedster with high-end receiving ability since trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins two years ago and with Worthy, that element should be firmly reestablished in this offense.

Over/Under 11.5 win total: Over

Despite all the troubles plaguing the Chiefs last season, they still won the Super Bowl behind another stellar performance from Patrick Mahomes. The team remains largely intact from last season, as L’Jarius Sneed is the only major piece not returning after a trade with the Titans. On paper, this team should cruise to an AFC West division title, especially considering the other three teams look much weaker heading into the season. A third consecutive Super Bowl win is certainly on the table.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

“Transcendant” is how Bill Barnwell describes Jim Harbaugh:

The superlative: Team most likely to add a playmaker at the trade deadline

Three things I believe about the Chargers:

Jim Harbaugh is a transcendent coach. Remember what happened last time he entered the NFL? In 2011, he took over a 49ers team that hadn’t posted a winning season in eight years whose quarterback (Alex Smith) had decided to leave town in disgust and frustration. Harbaugh took the Niners from 6-10 to 13-3 in one year. He was in the Super Bowl with a new quarterback (Colin Kaepernick) the following season. I’d argue he has a better quarterback this time around in Justin Herbert, and while he didn’t bring defensive coordinator Vic Fangio along for the ride, Jesse Minter did wonders over the past two years under Harbaugh at Michigan.

The Chargers were better than they looked a year ago. They went 5-12 but had the point differential of a 7.1-win team, even with that 42-point blowout loss at the hands of the Raiders that ended the Brandon Staley era. They went 3-8 in one-score games, including narrow losses to the Cowboys, Dolphins, Lions, Packers and Bills. They parted ways with useful wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, but Williams wasn’t around for most of 2023, anyway. L.A.’s baseline level of play, even without Harbaugh, is better than you think.

Their schedule is very friendly to begin the season. Outside of a matchup with the Chiefs, they have a winnable first couple of months. They open with the Raiders and have a two-game road trip against the Panthers and Steelers. After the Kansas City game and a bye, they have road games against the Broncos and Cardinals before a home game against the Saints.

If the Chargers get off to a solid start in advance of a three-game homestand in November, I would argue they should be in the market for a playmaker. They added Ladd McConkey and DJ Chark at receiver, Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst at tight end and Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins at running back, but there might not be a No. 1 player at any of those respective positions in the mix.

I’m not sure Harbaugh would add a No. 1, but remember he took fliers on Mario Manningham, Anquan Boldin and even Randy Moss during his time in San Francisco. If second-year wideout Quentin Johnston is still struggling, would the Chargers make a run at wideout DeAndre Hopkins or a back such as Najee Harris if their respective teams are struggling? I wouldn’t expect a big move in-season, but if the Chargers look as good as I expect, they should act accordingly ahead of the deadline on Nov. 5.

CINCINNATI

Bill Barnwell on what Cincinnati did right this offseason:

The superlative: Team least likely to have its 2024 season ruined by what ruined its season in 2023

The Bengals came into the offseason with a clear mantra: Fix what went wrong last season. Director of player personnel Duke Tobin and coach Zac Taylor can’t guarantee their solutions will solve everything, but this is another team in the AFC North with a logical plan for addressing its issues.

Obviously, the biggest problem for Cincinnati in 2023 was the series of injuries suffered by quarterback Joe Burrow, who was limited to start the season by a calf issue and then underwent season-ending right wrist surgery in November. Those injuries weren’t necessarily caused by traumatic hits, but they might very well be a product of wear and tear and prior hits adding up. He has sped up his processing and does a great job of getting the ball out quickly, but as we saw at times in 2021 and 2022, his offensive line hasn’t always been up to the task of letting him work.

The Bengals have continued to invest in their offensive line, and this offseason took that to a new level. They landed what might be one of the best deals of the offseason when they signed left tackle Trent Brown to a one-year deal for $4.8 million to take over for Jonah Williams. Brown has had issues staying healthy and with motivation in previous years, but he has been a great left tackle and an upper-echelon right tackle at different points in his career. The Bengals also used their first-round pick on raw Georgia tackle Amarius Mims, giving them a long-term prospect and a potential replacement if Brown isn’t available.

On defense, the secondary fell apart last season after losing starting safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. Nick Scott never seemed to settle in after joining from the Rams, while former first-round pick Dax Hill hasn’t been what the team hoped at free safety. The instability at safety might have limited what crafty defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo was comfortable doing on that side of the ball. The Bengals dropped from 10th in QBR allowed without pressure in 2022 to 27th in 2023, and they fell from seventh in QBR allowed while blitzing in 2022 to 24th.

Bates is on a long-term deal with the Falcons, but Bell didn’t pan out with the Panthers, so Cincinnati brought him back to take over one starting spot. It imported veteran Geno Stone from the Ravens to play the other starting role. Both are comfortable working in the box and as a free safety, which should allow Anarumo more flexibility to hide his hand pre-snap. Hill is expected to move to cornerback, although he might play a little bit at multiple positions in a reserve role.

HOUSTON

WR NICO COLLINS deserved a raise and he got a big one.  DJ Bien-Amie of ESPN.com:

The Houston Texans and wide receiver Nico Collins have agreed to a three-year, $72.75 million extension that includes $52 million guaranteed, agents Drew Rosenhaus, Ryan Matha and Jason Rosenhaus told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Tuesday.

The contract has a maximum value of $75 million.

Collins, selected in the third round of the 2021 draft, was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after this season. In three seasons, the former Michigan standout has 150 catches for 2,224 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The extension comes after Houston bolstered its receiver room when it traded a 2025 second-round pick to the Buffalo Bills for wide receiver Stefon Diggs and two draft picks in early April. Diggs is set to be a free agent following this season after the Texans voided the final three years on his contract while giving him a $3.5 million raise, increasing his 2024 base salary to $22.52 million.

Extending Collins gives the Texans two receivers they view as dynamic playmakers who are under contract past the 2024 season: 2023 third-rounder Tank Dell and Collins. Dell finished last season with 709 yards as a rookie but was on pace for 1,205 yards before suffering a broken leg against the Denver Broncos in early December.

Dell is healthy and participated in Texans OTAs after he was shot at a private event in Sanford, Florida, where authorities say a teenage gunman injured 10 people after an altercation on April 28.

“We want to put defenses in binds, and I think with those three guys it allows us to do that because they are so different, and they can all do different things,” Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said. “But at the end of the day, they are all explosive finishers with the football, and that is what makes those guys great players. They can win on third down and they can finish and get in the end zone, and that’s what we look for at all skill positions on offense.”

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Bill Barnwell is amazed at how many offensive toys the Texans have assembled:

The superlative: Team most likely to petition the NFL to play with a second football

You’ve probably heard the Texans are spoiled for choice with playmakers. This offseason, they brought back tight end Dalton Schultz on a multiyear deal, swapped out Devin Singletary for Joe Mixon at running back and traded a second-round pick to acquire Stefon Diggs, giving them arguably the league’s best big three at wide receiver alongside Tank Dell and Nico Collins. With Noah Brown, Robert Woods and Ben Skowronek in reserve, the Texans are stacked at receiver.

What will that actually look like on the field, though? I wouldn’t be surprised if one or more of the various Houston receivers failed to live up to fan expectations. That’s not because of talent or subpar play, but simply because there’s going to be only so many targets to go around.

Consider that Diggs was targeted on more than 29% of the routes he ran in a pass-heavy Buffalo offense last season. That ranked 11th in the league. Before his fibula injury in December, Dell was targeted on more than 26% of his routes, which ranked 30th. Collins was targeted on nearly 28% of his routes, which ranked 22nd, and that jumped north of 33% after Dell went down injured. That’s without factoring in any targets for Schultz, Mixon or any other receivers.

On top of that, this wasn’t a pass-heavy offense in 2023. The Texans were efficient throwing the ball, in part because they ran it at the seventh-highest rate on early downs in neutral game scripts, limiting the workload on rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. It seems likely coordinator Bobby Slowik will open up the passing game more often on early downs, but I’d be surprised if they turned into the Bills or Chiefs in terms of regularly topping 40 pass attempts per game.

On the field, this doesn’t really matter. If the offense works and Houston is winning games, no Texans fan is going to care about how often each receiver is being targeted, nor should they. But with Collins and Diggs both in the final year of their respective contracts and expectations for each receiver sky-high, I’m not sure there’s going to be the volume available for each of these standouts to produce what some might be hoping.

INDIANAPOLIS

If QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON stays healthy in 2024 (or actually, with GARDNER MINSHEW II gone, even if he doesn’t), the Colts will be led in passing by a seventh different passer in the last seven years.

Colts     Leading Passer

2024     Anthony Richardson ?

2023    Gardner Minshew II

2022    Matt Ryan

2021    Carson Wentz

2020    Philip Rivers

2019    Jacoby Brissett

2018    Andrew Luck

QB JOE FLACCO is now the number 2 QB in Indy.

JACKSONVILLE

Bill Barnwell on the extension to EDGE JOSH ALLEN, plus QB TREVOR LAWRENCE on the immediate horizon:

The superlative: Team most likely to hand out $100 million in guarantees before the start of the season

GM Trent Baalke and the Jaguars already have handed out one huge contract this offseason, as they gave Josh Allen a five-year, $141 million deal to get their star edge rusher off the franchise tag in April. Coming off a 17.5-sack season that topped his sack numbers over the prior three years combined, the Jags understandably felt little choice but to hand him a massive contract extension.

The next move is to lock up another first-round pick. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s 2023 season wasn’t the breakout the team was hoping for after his white-hot end to the 2022 campaign, but there’s seemingly little appetite for moving on from him. When a team has a quarterback it wants to build around, the best thing for cap purposes is usually to extend him after Year 3, when there are still four years of plausible runway between that quarterback and free agency (with the fourth year of his rookie deal, his fifth-year option and two potential franchise tags). Spreading that huge bonus over a five-year span and getting the guaranteed salaries on board earlier in the deal is usually the right way to go.

What will a Lawrence extension look like? Depends on which QB gets his deal done first. Last year, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow all signed contract extensions after becoming eligible. Burrow signed the latest and landed the largest deal; his five-year extension averaged $55 million per year. Adjust that for the growth in the cap between 2023 and 2024 and Lawrence could get $62.5 million per season. He hasn’t been as productive or successful as Burrow, but that doesn’t matter much with these young quarterback extensions.

Now that Jared Goff has signed a deal, Lawrence, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott are the most likely quarterbacks to sign extensions this summer. I would be surprised if any of their deals came in south of $60 million annually. Lawrence should land more than $150 million guaranteed at signing and be locked in as Jacksonville’s starting quarterback through 2028.

On top of that, the Jags have to consider new deals with top cornerback Tyson Campbell and lead back Travis Etienne, both are whom are eligible for extensions. Campbell is a free agent after the season, which might make his extension the most pressing, but he’s coming off a frustrating 2023 campaign. You could say the same thing about Lawrence, but after this team endured a decade of Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles, he shouldn’t be going anywhere.

Although the big deal feels inevitable, Randy Mueller, writing in The Athletic, on the gnawing feeling that Trevor Lawrence has not been all he could be:

He was the consensus first pick in a much-hyped 2021 quarterback class, a player many pegged as the best prospect the league had seen in years. Some used the terms “generational talent” or “can’t miss” to describe him.

We are now three years into Trevor Lawrence’s career with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and while he’s the only first-round QB from the 2021 draft still with his original team, he’s not even the best quarterback in the AFC South — that would be the Texans’ C.J. Stroud, last year’s No. 2 pick and Offensive Rookie of the Year.

NFL scouts, evaluators and decision-makers raved about Lawrence during his time at Clemson, resulting in one of the most consistent narratives about a QB since Andrew Luck came out of Stanford in 2012. Everybody had the same take. Lawrence checked every box for physical measurements and talent: Size, arm, athletic ability, accuracy — you name it, he had it. Oh, and he was a winner without any intangible concerns. He was the prototype.

I do, however, remember thinking this at the time: He’s going to need to be reprogrammed from Clemson’s RPO-heavy, simplistic passing game and be taught an NFL passing game from the ground up, conceptually. But who better to work with than a prospect who checked all of the physical boxes and had a sky-high ceiling?

Lawrence is still just 24, and the sky remains the limit, but he hasn’t blossomed quite yet. Why? I went looking for answers.

The numbers

Let’s start with a 30,000-foot view through the numbers.

Lawrence’s rookie year under then-coach Urban Meyer was obviously a disaster by any measurement. He was thrown in the fire amid a circus in Jacksonville, run by a coach who had no idea how to lead professional football players. (Incidentally, this came as a surprise only to those who hired Meyer because many around the league knew this would not work.) So we can flush the first year of Lawrence’s development plan and his 71.9 passer rating, which tied for second worst in the NFL.

The last two seasons have clearly been better. Lawrence’s passer rating climbed to 95.2 (tied for ninth best) in 2022, although it dropped to 88.5 (21st) in 2023.

Let’s focus on just 2023 for a minute. Lawrence completed 65.6 percent of his passes, which ranked 14th. He threw 14 interceptions (tied for fourth most) and had 21 turnovers, which was third most behind only Sam Howell — who is already on his second team — and Josh Allen, who, good as he is, is a human carnival ride.

Some of the biggest concerns came in high-leverage moments. Ten of Lawrence’s turnovers came on third down, the most in the NFL, per TruMedia. He converted just 38 percent of third downs, ranking alongside Desmond Ridder, Daniel Jones and Joshua Dobbs and well behind league leader Jalen Hurts (48 percent). On third downs in the fourth quarter, Lawrence completed 58.1 percent of his passes. League leaders in that category were in the mid-to-high 70s, led by Kyler Murray (79.2 percent).

Some might question the offensive scheme under head coach Doug Pederson. For comparison’s sake, I went back to the Eagles with Pederson and Carson Wentz. In 2017, when the Eagles won the Super Bowl despite Wentz’s late-season knee injury, he finished with a passer rating of 101.9 and 10 total turnovers (again, Lawrence had 10 on third down in 2023 alone!), along with a 65 percent completion rate on third downs. That was peak Wentz but worth noting because the offense was similar in design. Wentz declined in 2018 and 2019 but still had fewer than 15 turnovers in each season, before his Philadelphia tenure fell apart in 2020.

The film

Lawrence’s physical skills are still as evident as they were when he was a freshman at Clemson. He can make all the throws with both velocity and touch.

But his internal clock — knowing when to get the ball out — and his decision-making under pressure are still a work in progress. It’s important to evaluate college QBs when they face pressure, but that’s not always easy. At top college programs, QBs aren’t forced into survival mode often. But in the NFL, the pocket is chaos and they are always being rushed, if not jostled around.

Lawrence seems to want to flush from the pocket as soon as possible instead of stepping up. Those muddy pockets are not for everyone, even if you are 6-foot-6. It’s worth noting he battled knee, ankle and shoulder injuries during the 2023 season, missing one game and being listed as questionable for five others. That certainly could have affected his comfort in the pocket.

I don’t think Lawrence is struggling with a lack of processing. It’s often a lack of patience to sit in there and let targets declare. Sometimes, his best options did not declare until late in the down. Having spent 10 years with the Chargers and Philip Rivers, I can say he was the best I ever saw at making decisions late in the down. When fans were yelling to get rid of the ball, he had a calm patience, allowing him to work best when under the gun. After all, the pocket is not for everyone.

It appears Lawrence wants his targets defined quickly, which limits the offense, in my opinion. Having patience, even as pressure is coming, is what separates the good from the great at the NFL level. While Lawrence is an exceptional athlete, he too often defaults to using that athleticism early in the process, moving off his spot.

I think his relatively low completion rate was more a product of his decision-making than a lack of accuracy. I would love to see him take the checkdown more often, rather than rushing to the decision to make harder and sometimes riskier throws downfield. Sometimes by looking deep, you can see short. He hasn’t perfected that yet.

Lawrence seldom gets to a second or third read because he doesn’t give the big picture of the play design enough time to reveal itself. He will look to a second option at times, but it’s just not often enough. Other times, he looks, but he doesn’t see, which is an important distinction. It sounds simple, but many quarterbacks struggle to throw to an open receiver they are staring right at. This issue can be fatal if not corrected.

Though Lawrence’s completion rate is not a product of poor accuracy, I still see only average accuracy for an NFL quarterback. He has not developed consistent pinpoint ball placement, but at times he can fit the ball in tight windows as well as the better QBs in the league.

His athletic ability is certainly evident when he’s pressured by free rushers. Defenders struggle to corral him and also to get him to the ground. He has the speed to run away from tacklers, which is a big plus, and his elusiveness in the pocket is top-five caliber in the NFL.

Pederson and the Jaguars’ offensive staff have tried to use Lawrence’s legs often by design, and some of his best work has come on RPOs and rollouts to get him out of the pocket. He’s very accurate on the move, going in either direction, so this is probably a good idea. But I’m not sure it’s sustainable for an NFL offense to rely on it heavily over time because it doesn’t require the defense to cover one-third of the field (the back side, away from the roll). So there are positives and negatives to that methodology.

The spacing of Jacksonville’s pass game and the route running have been a work in progress, as well. The Jaguars have had a revolving door of receivers over the last few years, with the mainstay being tight end Evan Engram, who has developed into a very valuable option (you can almost consider him a slot WR). His body control and route running make him a matchup nightmare for any linebacker, which often helps Lawrence.

What comes next?

Whether it’s the offense, the personnel around him or that he’s feeling pressure to compensate for an underachieving defense, Lawrence’s game seems stuck somewhere between third and fourth gear.

His talent has taken him this far, but he is still learning to play quarterback after three years in the NFL. He has not advanced his trade enough to consistently operate at a high level and make people better around him. I feel as though he is executing the offense as the coaches ask but giving them very little beyond what the design and play calls are meant to produce. He has to improve his decision-making, especially when under pressure and on third downs, and take care of the ball.

Lawrence has the potential to be a more athletic Joe Burrow, but to this point, I see a bigger, faster version of Daniel Jones. The upside is still clear, but he is now eligible for a contract extension, and the top of the quarterback market is now well over $50 million per year. At that cost, the Jaguars would be vastly overpaying for what they are currently getting, and speculative stocks cause sleepless nights.

Pederson said last week that the team hopes to get a deal done soon. With what I know, I would not reset the market right now for Lawrence, who has two years and $31.3 million remaining on his contract, although I would see if I could sign him for less (which probably isn’t realistic but worth trying). Absent that, I would prefer to slow-play the situation, knowing I have him under contract through 2025 and the franchise tag available after that if necessary, while keeping my options open.

Now, I’m not advocating against paying him. Team-building around a quarterback is always a work in progress, and as a general manager, you’ll never be totally satisfied with your roster. But Lawrence still needs to grow, and paying him market-setting money would make it more difficult to provide him with the help he needs to keep growing.

One other major factor here is the coach. Pederson has declined to say whether he or offensive coordinator Press Taylor will call plays in 2024 (they split duties in 2022, and Taylor handled them in 2023). If I were Pederson, I’d keep this in mind: Nobody has more of an effect on the development of a young quarterback than the play caller. I believe Pederson has no choice but to be hands-on in this regard.

Both his and Lawrence’s futures hang in the balance. If I were in that situation, I’d want my hands on the wheel.

BUFFALO

Bill Barnwell on the changes in Buffalo:

Beyond quarterback Josh Allen, much of the core of the Buffalo teams that won 58 regular-season games over the past five seasons is gone. Of the 12 players who played the most snaps on offense or defense for the Bills over that five-year span, six left this offseason: wide receivers Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs and center Mitch Morse on offense, and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer and cornerback Tre’Davious White on defense. A seventh, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, left in free agency last offseason.

The players from that core still in Bills uniforms are building blocks: Allen, offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, tight end Dawson Knox, corner Taron Johnson and linebacker Matt Milano. The big question for GM Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott will be whether any of the young players join them. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver has already done enough and earned a significant extension, but can 2021 first-rounder Greg Rousseau make the leap many were expecting last season and develop into an upper-echelon pass-rusher? Will cornerback Kaiir Elam, who struggled as a rookie and missed most of 2023 with a foot injury, beat out Christian Benford for a starting job? Can tight end Dalton Kincaid and rookie receiver Keon Coleman be the focal points of the passing attack?

In what amounts to a retooling season, the Bills don’t have any alternatives beyond those players breaking out. Most of their signings were the sorts of moves Houston GM Nick Caserio typically makes, loading up on low-cost veterans to add depth on one-year pacts, with slot receiver Curtis Samuel as the lone exception. I like some of those moves — safety Mike Edwards and defensive tackle Austin Johnson are likely to be underrated contributors — but this is the least-imposing roster Buffalo has rolled out on paper since its breakout in 2019. The Bills are going to need that young talent to develop quickly to stay atop the AFC East.

NEW ENGLAND

Bill Barnwell on New England’s offseason:

The superlative: Team most likely to buy in bulk

The Patriots landed their quarterback of the future in No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye and, in the long run, that decision will come to define their offseason. Around him, though, they seemed to shop more in quantity than quality. This was a team that came into the offseason realistically hoping to add a new starting quarterback, No. 1 wide receiver and starting left tackle.

Maye answers the first problem, but the Patriots seemed to throw darts at the wall to address the other issues. At wide receiver, they swapped out DeVante Parker for former Vikings third wideout K.J. Osborn and used second- and fourth-round picks on Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, respectively. Polk could emerge as a No. 1 — and JuJu Smith-Schuster is reportedly healthy after being limited by a knee injury last season — but this feels like an offense without a focal point at receiver.

Left tackle is even messier. After cutting Conor McDermott and letting Trent Brown leave in free agency, the Patriots signed former Steelers lineman Chukwuma Okorafor and drafted Penn State tackle Caedan Wallace in the third round. The only problem is both Okorafor and Wallace have spent their recent careers playing right tackle, meaning one will have to jump to the left side to protect Maye’s blindside as a rookie.

This isn’t the worst idea. Teams are often overconfident about their ability to land one player in a specific position, and so it’s sometimes better to try to draft multiple contributors at a position in the hope that competition or good fortune lands you starting-caliber talent. (The Packers seem to be building this way, for example.) If Polk emerges as a top wideout and the Pats give their left tackle some help with chips and double-teams, they’ll be fine. Just don’t be surprised if they’re back in the market for a left tackle next offseason.

NEW YORK JETS

ProFootballFocus.com has the Jets in the stratosphere in terms of overall roster strength at #4, behind SF, KC and PHIL and just ahead of Baltimore.

4. NEW YORK JETS

Biggest strength in 2023: Pass Defense

The Jets ranked first in the NFL in coverage grade and sixth in pass-rush grade last season. They boast elite players in both units, including Sauce Gardner, C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams. All of the foundational pieces return and their defense is absolutely lethal when they are ahead late in games.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Offensive Line

Offensively, the Jets struggled to block people in 2023. Their offensive line suffered a rash of injuries and finished the season with the second-worst overall grade in the league. They enter this year with hopes of significant improvement after adding Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson and first-round pick Olu Fashanu.

X-factor for 2024: QB Aaron Rodgers

Assuming the team’s offensive line is fixed, Aaron Rodgers is the key for New York to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Rodgers played just four snaps last season before suffering a torn Achilles. If he is recovered and plays like a top-10 quarterback, the Jets become another dangerous team in a loaded AFC.

Rookie to watch: WR Malachi Corley

If all goes according to plan, first-round pick Olu Fashanu will sit on the bench for the majority of the season. That leaves Malachi Corley as the most likely rookie to earn a starting role. He’s an after-the-catch specialist who should immediately improve an offense that ranked dead last in slot receiving grade last year.

Over/Under 9.5 win total: Over

If the offensive line improves and Aaron Rodgers is healthy, the Jets are an extremely talented team. The additions of Corley and ex-Charger Mike Williams should complement Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson quite well. They don’t need their offense to be elite. They need it to be functional. They already have arguably the best defense in the NFL. As was the case last year, any scenario where they miss the postseason is a disappointment.