The Daily Briefing Wednesday, May 8, 2024

THE DAILY BRIEFING

The countdown has begun – one week to Schedule Day!  Although the leaking will begin on Monday.  Ben Fischer of Sports Business Journal:

The full 2024 NFL schedule is slated to be released at 8pm ET on May 15, six days after teams were originally expecting it, according to a league memo sent this afternoon.

 

The memo from NFL EVP/Media Distribution Hans Schroeder did not give a reason for the delay. The schedule release had not been officially announced yet, and the league always maintains a degree of flexibility considering the complex nature of developing the schedule. But some teams had been told informally it was coming Thursday.

 

Schroeder wrote that more details about activations or other nuances of the plan were expected in the coming days. The league and media rights holders sometimes announce specific high-profile matchups before the full slate is unveiled.

 

The schedule release has become a key priority for teams and the league in recent years, with teams preparing increasingly sophisticated schedule social content and using it as a starting point for single-game ticket sales.

– – –

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com has a column about his personal Winners and Losers from the events of the draft.  Look for them with their respective teams.

NFC NORTH
 

GREEN BAY

T RASHEED WALKER is a Bill Barnwell draft “loser”:

Loser: Rasheed Walker, OT, Packers

Elsewhere in the NFC North, another tackle might have been blocked on his path to franchise tackle money. After playing just four special teams snaps as a rookie in 2022, Walker took over last September for the injured David Bakhtiari and locked down the left tackle spot for the NFL’s youngest team, helping push Jordan Love and the Packers into the postseason. By the end of the season, Walker looked like he might have locked down the position in Green Bay for years to come.

 

Then the draft came. The Packers used three picks on offensive linemen, including first-round selection Jordan Morgan, who started 37 games at left tackle for Arizona. Bakhtiari is gone, but there’s suddenly competition up front for Walker as he tries to play his way to a second contract.

 

There are several ways this could go. Morgan could kick inside to play right guard and replace Jon Runyan, who signed with the Giants. Right tackle Zach Tom could move to center and take over for Josh Myers, which would open up a starting tackle spot for either Morgan or Walker. The Packers could also keep Myers at center and Tom at right tackle and have a battle between Morgan and Walker for the left tackle spot, one that’s always going to favor a first-round pick over a player who was chosen 249th. Walker proved he can play a year ago, but now, he might have to prove he can beat highly drafted competition.

NFC EAST
 

DALLAS

RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT is a Bill Barnwell “winner” after the draft:

Let’s stick in the NFC East and pick a winner who wasn’t even on a roster during the NFL draft. Despite being linked to several running backs across many multiday mock drafts, the Cowboys didn’t use any of their eight picks on a back. They left draft weekend the same way they entered it: with Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn leading their depth chart. While team owner Jerry Jones suggested Dallas is all-in this offseason, that sentiment doesn’t appear to have extended to the backfield.

 

Enter Elliott, who then returned to the Cowboys on a one-year, $2 million deal after a year away with the Patriots. Nothing about Elliott’s game has changed from the player who hit the market as a cap casualty a year ago. He’s a smart, experienced back who can be a valuable contributor as a pass protector. He’s also painfully slow and should rarely be used on runs designed to bounce outside the tackles. Elliott’s minus-219 rush yards over expectation (RYOE) on runs outside the tackles over the past three years ranks last in the league by 55 yards.

 

The Cowboys might see another role for Elliott: goal-line back. One of the places in which his absence was felt last season was in short-yardage, with Tony Pollard struggling to assert himself between the tackles. Dallas dropped from first in red zone touchdown rate in 2022 to 14th without Elliott last season, and its 64.1% conversion rate in goal-to-go situations ranked 26th in the league. I wouldn’t count on Elliott getting featured-back status again — and the Cowboys could still add a running back between now and the start of the season — but Elliott could be in for a Gus Edwards-style usage pattern in this reunion.

 

NEW YORK GIANTS

QB DANIEL JONES is a Bill Barnwell “winner”:

I just mentioned the Giants as a potential starting job up for grabs next offseason, and that would involve moving on from Jones, who has no fully guaranteed money remaining on his deal after this season. While there were rumors the Giants were interested in moving up from No. 6 overall to take Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy, general manager Joe Schoen & Co. stayed put and didn’t draft a quarterback, clearing a path for Jones to start ahead of Drew Lock in 2024.

 

In addition, the Giants made their biggest investment yet at receiver by using their top pick on wideout Malik Nabers. While the various regimes running this team over the past few years have used both significant draft capital (Evan Engram, Wan’Dale Robinson, Kadarius Toney) and free agent money (Kenny Golladay) on various receivers, none of those moves has produced a top receiver. Jones’ best work came with replacement-level options Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James in starting roles at the end of the 2022 season. Nabers profiles as a difference-maker and the most valuable receiver the Giants have had since Odell Beckham Jr.’s peak.

 

The one downside, perhaps, is New York didn’t make the other move it was considering at No. 6. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported the organization had hoped tackle Joe Alt would fall, only for the Notre Dame player to come off the board at No. 5 to the Chargers. The Giants didn’t end up using any of their draft picks on offensive linemen.

 

If the Giants were considering Alt, that raises serious questions about the future of 2022 seventh overall pick Evan Neal, who was Schoen’s first selection as general manager. Neal has struggled mightily in his first two seasons, and the Giants signed former Raiders right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor in free agency. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Giants kept Eluemunor outside and kicked Neal inside, potentially to play left guard. Doing so might upgrade two spots in one for Jones.

 

While I mentioned Jones doesn’t have any fully guaranteed money left on his deal after 2024, there is $23 million in injury guarantees on the books for him in 2025. What that means is the Giants would have to pay him that figure if he suffers an injury and is unable to pass a physical. Given Jones’ injury history, including multiple neck issues, there’s a real concern they might be on the hook for that figure if he suffers another injury. With that being the case, if the Giants get off to a slow start and fall out of playoff contention, don’t be surprised if they shut down Jones in the second half of the season to avoid triggering that guarantee, just as the Raiders did with Derek Carr and the Broncos did with Russell Wilson during the past two seasons.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com declares QB KIRK COUSINS to be a draft loser, to no one’s surprise:

Loser: Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons

Well, you can’t say you’re surprised. You don’t need me to reiterate the shock that came when the Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick, but imagine how it must have felt from Cousins’ perspective. The new Atlanta quarterback reportedly didn’t know the Falcons were considering Penix until the selection was made. The organization didn’t even pursue Penix heavily, as the Washington quarterback didn’t make a pre-draft visit to Atlanta. It is one of the most stunning top-10 picks in recent memory.

 

What might be more useful is laying out what could happen next. Cousins is guaranteed $100 million on the four-year deal he signed in March. He already has received a $50 million signing bonus. He has a $12.5 million base salary this year, a $27.5 million base salary next year and a $10 million roster bonus in 2026 that guarantees if he’s on the 2025 roster. As long as he wants to keep playing, he’ll collect a minimum of $100 million for two years of work or $135 million for three years.

 

Will that all be with the Falcons? First and foremost, that’s up to Cousins. He has a full no-trade clause, which means he can force the franchise to pay him that $100 million over two years before moving on to Penix for the 2026 season. Naturally, while Cousins might not want to move on to another city after just landing in Atlanta, the veteran might also not want to sit in 2025 behind Penix if the Falcons are ready to move on and there’s an exciting opportunity available elsewhere.

 

Could the Falcons move on after one year? Yes, although it would be more complicated. If Cousins agrees to a trade, it would be easy; Atlanta would actually save $2.5 million as part of that deal, and while it would have paid him $62.5 million for one year of work, it wouldn’t be on the hook for the remaining $37.5 million in guarantees. The Falcons would have $37.5 million in dead money on their cap, but we’ve seen teams grown more comfortable eating that sort of dead money if they’re ready to move on from a quarterback.

 

Cutting Cousins after 2024 would be more difficult to swallow, especially from the financial side. The Falcons would be on the hook for $27.5 million guaranteed in 2025 and basically be paying him to play for the minimum elsewhere, as Russell Wilson is now doing in Pittsburgh. They would get out of the $10 million commitment for 2026, but in addition to spreading $65 million in dead money over two years, they would have paid Cousins $90 million for one year of football as a lame-duck signal-caller. That couldn’t have been their plan when they signed him.

 

Projecting potential landing spots a year in advance is a tricky game to play, but the obvious one appears to be off the board. There were always rumors of Cousins reuniting with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, but the 49ers appear to have found their quarterback of the future in Brock Purdy, who will be eligible for an extension next offseason. The 49ers could theoretically try to stay with lower-cost options at quarterback and continue to pay a premium for their playmakers, but it’s more likely they sign Purdy to an extension and cut back elsewhere. Cousins wouldn’t make sense on a veteran deal unless he either takes a massive pay cut and/or something happens to Purdy this season.

 

Otherwise, the other potential landing spots appear to be with the Raiders, Steelers and Titans, none of whom have a settled quarterback of the future. The Giants, Jets, Saints, Seahawks and even the Dolphins could also be in the market for a veteran starter. If Cousins plays well in 2024 and both he and the Falcons want to split, there will be a market for him next year. Next time around, Cousins might just want to try to get his new organization to promise it won’t draft a quarterback immediately after acquiring him.

NFC WEST
 

SAN FRANCISCO

WR BRANDON AIYUK is a Bill Barnwell “loser”:

Loser: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers

A weekend that might have provided certainty toward Aiyuk’s future ended with things being even cloudier. Amid reports the 49ers were shopping both Aiyuk and fellow wide receiver Deebo Samuel during the first round in the hopes of moving up the board, no trade was consummated. Aiyuk also wasn’t dealt during Day 2.

 

Furthermore, when the 49ers did make their first-round pick, it was surprisingly on a wide receiver in Ricky Pearsall, who crossed paths with Aiyuk when the two were at Arizona State. Aiyuk might be delighted to link up with a former teammate, but in the short term, adding another first-round pick to an already-crowded group of playmakers only makes it harder for Aiyuk to repeat his breakout 1,342-yard season from a year ago.

 

Pearsall might not be a direct replacement for Aiyuk in the short term, but his presence could indicate San Francisco expects to move on from one of its wideouts sooner rather than later.

 

LOS ANGELES RAMS

LB ERNEST JONES is a Bill Barnwell draft “winner”:

Winner: Ernest Jones, LB, Rams

Everybody on the Rams defense is going to need to deal with a new paradigm this offseason. Life is just different without Aaron Donald. Jones, as an example, has played just under 75% of his defensive snaps as a pro with the future Hall of Famer on the field. While Donald’s gravity created opportunities for pass-rushers such as Dante Fowler Jr., Leonard Floyd and Byron Young to win one-on-ones over the years, the threat of the defensive tackle penetrating into the backfield also gave guards nightmares, helping to keep them off Jones.

 

In a contract year, Jones undoubtedly wanted the Rams to add help in front of him on the line of scrimmage. The mission was expensive, but it was accomplished. GM Les Snead & Co. used their first-round pick on edge rusher Jared Verse, then traded up in the second round to nab tackle Braden Fiske. They should see regular snaps alongside Young and fellow second-year standout Kobie Turner as the new sub-package front for the Rams. And while it won’t be playing alongside a future Hall of Famer, that should make life easier for Jones than it looked before draft weekend.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs have more trouble on their hands courtesy of knucklehead WR RASHEE RICE.

Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice, who already faces eight felony charges for a multi-car crash on March 30, now is being investigated for allegedly hitting a photographer at a nightclub in Dallas on Monday night, WFAA reports.

 

According to the TV station, Dallas police are interviewing witnesses after an incident at Lit Kitchen.

 

Rice’s availability for this season already was in question after he lost control of a Lamborghini while allegedly driving 119 mph and causing a six-vehicle crash on a Dallas highway. Two victims in the crash have filed a civil suit against Rice and suspended SMU cornerback Teddy Knox, who also was speeding in Rice’s Chevrolet Corvette when he also lost control and wrecked.

 

Rice could face punishment under the league’s Personal Conduct Policy.

 

Commissioner Roger Goodell said during draft weekend that the NFL will let the legal process “move through” on Rice, though the receiver’s latest incident could change that.

 

Rice has been working out with Patrick Mahomes near Fort Worth, Texas, and participating in virtual meetings with the team. The Chiefs will have to decide before May 20 whether Rice will participate in practices at the team facility.

 

The Chiefs covered their bases, trading up in the first round to select Texas receiver Xavier Worthy after signing veteran receiver Marquise Hollywood Brown in free agency.

 

Rice led the team’s wide receivers with 938 yards and seven touchdowns on 79 receptions last season as a rookie.

LAS VEGAS

Everyone thinks the Raiders still need a QB, but Bill Barnwell points out the opportunity presented for one of his “winners”, QB GARDNER MINSHEW:

 

Winner: Gardner Minshew, QB, Raiders

When the carousel of teams interested in quarterbacks in the draft came to a halt, perhaps the only team reportedly interested in landing a signal-caller that didn’t actually land one was the Raiders. They weren’t able to trade up from No. 13 overall for Michael Penix Jr. or J.J. McCarthy, and when the Broncos drafted Bo Nix just ahead of them, they were taken off the quarterback board.

 

Instead, the Raiders made significant investments in their supporting cast on offense. Tom Telesco surprisingly used his first pick as the Las Vegas GM on tight end Brock Bowers, making the Raiders the first team to use picks on tight ends in the top two rounds in back-to-back drafts since they did the same thing just over 20 years ago. Telesco used second- and third-round picks on offensive linemen Jackson Powers-Johnson and Delmar Glaze, then added running back Dylan Laube in Round 6.

 

On top of their class, the Raiders have been active in adding talent in the post-draft market. After the calendar turned to May, they signed Michael Gallup and former Chargers wideout Jalen Guyton to one-year deals, adding depth at receiver behind starters Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. They also brought in former Saints utility lineman Andrus Peat, who spent most of the year starting for the Saints at left tackle. He won’t play there with Kolton Miller in the lineup, but Peat should compete for a starting job at guard or at right tackle while giving Vegas useful depth up front.

 

All of this benefits Minshew, who is likely to win a competition with Aidan O’Connell for the starting job. Minshew would have been cast in the bridge quarterback role if the Raiders had selected a quarterback in the first round, but their failure to land a passer of the future and the depth added up front should be a boon to his chances of playing — and playing well — in 2024.

AFC NORTH
 

BALTIMORE

While QB JOE BURROW is getting bigger (see below), QB LAMAR JACKSON is getting smaller.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson hasn’t spent his offseason sitting around, eating and watching TV. He’s been hard at work as evidenced by his current weight.

 

Jackson revealed on an “I Got Time Today” segment from Complex Sports on Instagram that he’s down to 205 pounds.

 

Jackson read a series of social media posts about him, including one from nittygrittysportstalk that said, “Lamar Jackson is definitely 2019 MVP slim now. . . . It may get spooky.”

 

Jackson answered, “Most definitely. I was 230 two years ago. I was 215 last season, but now I’m like 205.”

 

The Ravens’ roster lists Jackson at 215 pounds, his playing weight last season. He entered the NFL at 216 pounds.

 

Skip

 

In 2022, Jackson added muscle mass to get his weight to 220 pounds. He said at the time that he just “wanted to do it [to] see how I look, see how I feel, and I feel good.”

 

He dropped 5 pounds last year and won his second MVP award.

 

CINCINNATI

QB JOE BURROW says he’s much improved overall after recovering from wrist surgery.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow says he’s bigger and stronger after spending the last several months focusing on his nutrition and lifting weights.

 

Asked how much muscle mass he has added, Burrow didn’t put a number on his gains but said he’s, “Bigger, definitely bigger.”

 

Burrow said he feels very good about where his body is right now and expects to be even stronger when the Bengals open training camp in July.

 

“I’m gonna continue to get stronger and bigger throughout the offseason and just play it by ear, depending on how I feel,” Burrow said. “I’m in a good spot right now. I’m really strong, bigger than I was. We’re gonna continue to eat right, lift and go through my routine and see where I’m at.”

 

Burrow said he has been working with his trainer to make sure he’s not skipping any meals.

 

“I’m more dialed as far as nutrition and food schedule and eating when I need to,” Burrow said. “I’ve seen results.”

 

Burrow suffered a season-ending right wrist injury on November 16, but he says he’s throwing the ball and feeling good. A bigger, stronger Burrow may be less susceptible to injuries going forward.

 

PITTSBURGH

Bill Barnwell on why RB JAYLEN WARREN is a “winner” after the draft:

Winner: Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers

If you’ve watched the Steelers’ offense closely over the past two seasons, you’re likely owed the right to some sort of compensation. You’ve also probably noticed the offense looks much more explosive when Warren has been in the game at running back. While 2021 first-round pick Najee Harris has struggled for consistency and big plays, the undersized Warren has exhibited an ability to create something out of nothing. He has generated 170 rush yards over expectation over the past two seasons, 207 more than the highly touted Harris has produced with more than twice as many rush attempts. Warren also has become a highlight reel-caliber pass-protector in the backfield.

 

The Steelers responded by taking some much-needed steps to improve the blocking in front of Warren. After spending a league-low two top-100 picks on offensive linemen between 2013 and 2022, they used a first-round pick on Broderick Jones a year ago. They followed up this year by using their top two selections and four of their first six selections on offensive linemen, most notably nabbing Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier in the first two rounds. Frazier profiles as the long-term replacement at center the Steelers have lacked since Maurkice Pouncey’s retirement after the 2022 season, while Fautanu should take over at left tackle for Dan Moore.

 

Pittsburgh then declined Harris’ fifth-year option, a move that shouldn’t be surprising given that he has averaged 3.9 yards per carry as a pro. Harris has stayed healthy and hasn’t been given much help, but he has been outplayed by Warren in the same lineups. Warren moved into a timeshare as the 2023 season went along, and he could push ahead of Harris for starting duties in 2024. If he does, the 5-foot-8 back should enjoy more help than he has had in previous years.

AFC SOUTH
 

JACKSONVILLE

The old Gator Bowl is going to get a major makeover.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Word in March was that the Jaguars hoped to reach an agreement with Jacksonville on a deal to renovate their stadium in early May and they have finished one big part of that process.

 

Jacksonville City Council president Ron Salem announced on Wednesday, via the Florida Times-Union, that the team has reached a deal with Mayor Donna Deegan. That agreement will be presented to the full council at a meeting next Tuesday.

 

Salem did not outline what the proposed deal would cost the team or the city, but previous reports have placed the cost at well over $1 billion. There has also been discussion of the Jaguars spending either both the 2026 and 2027 seasons or just the 2027 season in a different stadium because of the scope of the work that will need to be done.

 

Answers to those questions and others involving the future of the Jaguars, whose current lease is up in 2029, will start to come next week.

 

Gainesville? Orlando?  How many games in London?

AFC EAST
 

MIAMI

Bill Barnwell casts LB JAELEN PHILLIPS as “loser” after the draft:

Loser: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Dolphins

It has been a tough few months for Phillips, a film favorite who has perpetually looked on the verge of breaking out during his first three NFL seasons. In what was supposed to be a crowning 2023 campaign, he struggled with back and abdomen injuries early in the season. He came back and had sacks in five consecutive games, only for the 24-year-old to tear an Achilles late in a win over the Jets, ending his season after 367 total snaps.

 

After signing Shaquil Barrett to replace the departed Andrew Van Ginkel this offseason, the Dolphins doubled down on their pass rush by using a first-round pick on Chop Robinson. With Bradley Chubb locked up for the long term, the move likely squeezes Phillips’ path toward a starting job and a significant extension with Miami. The franchise picked up his fifth-year option for 2025, guaranteeing him $13.2 million next year, but he was in line for a much bigger deal before the injury.

 

NEW YORK JETS

The Jets did for QB AARON RODGERS what the Falcons would not for QB KIRK COUSINS – and that makes him a Bill Barnwell “winner”:

Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Jets

While Cousins might have been hoping for a draft that built the best possible team around him as the veteran quarterback tries to win a title, the Jets actually pursued that goal while being all-in around Rodgers. After signing wideout Mike Williams and acquiring offensive linemen Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and John Simpson in the offseason, New York appears to be surrounding Rodgers with legitimate NFL talent as opposed to friends who might accompany the future Hall of Famer to Knicks games, as was the case last offseason.

 

GM Joe Douglas oversaw a team that broke down because of injuries and lack of depth last season, and while the roster might have looked done on offense on paper, he wisely continued to go after more talent on offense. He moved down one spot in Round 1 and still landed tackle Olu Fashanu, who offers the Jets an immediate starter with the potential of growing into their left tackle of the future. With Smith sporting a significant injury history and unable to play more than 13 games in a season since 2015, New York needed to prioritize swing tackle. It can either start Fashanu in that role as a rookie or move Moses, who started at right tackle for the Ravens in 2023, into that third tackle spot while debuting Fashanu on the right side.

 

wasn’t at the top of the Jets’ “needs” list, but that he likes the Jets trading back in the first round.

With their second-round pick off to the Packers in the Rodgers deal from last offseason, the Jets then moved up in Round 3 to take wideout Malachi Corley, who profiles as a younger version of Randall Cobb. The Jets needed a slot receiver, and Corley gives them a third option if they find a taker for Allen Lazard. The organization also added running back depth in Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis before using a Day 3 pick on quarterback Jordan Travis, who shouldn’t pressure Rodgers for the starting job if he wants to return in 2025.

 

During the draft, Douglas managed to amass more draft capital by trading down several times. While that might not feel like it helps the Jets in a season in which they want to build the best possible roster around Rodgers, adding extra players in the 2024 draft is a positive, not a negative. They also landed a 2025 third-round pick from the Lions, a pick that could come in handy at the trade deadline if New York looks like a contender. This team is in a much better place than it was a year ago.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

RANKING THE QBs

Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com lines them up 1 to DANIEL JONES:

Now, without further ado, here’s our first pecking order of the 2024 season:

 

2024 NFL QB Power Rankings

 

1  Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

No reason to get cute here. Like that other figurehead of a recent dynasty, Mahomes has adapted according to circumstance, going from big-play striker to methodical sharpshooter in a Tom Brady-esque domination of the game. He is the current and indefinite standard at the position.

 

2  Brock Purdy    49ers

Let’s give the kid the respect he deserves. Two seasons, two NFC title games, one valiant Super Bowl effort. Does he have a sterling setup in San Francisco? Yep. Does he operate like a 10-year vet, managing the pocket as both an efficient and mobile gunslinger? Also yep.

 

3  Josh Allen            Buffalo

Allen was already a one-man roller-coaster ride, and things could get rockier in Buffalo with basically the whole receiving corps replaced. But he’s a perennial MVP type due to the Superman skill set. If anyone can will a team to contend with a rocket arm and bruising legs, it’s him.

 

4 Joe Burrow           Bengals

Injuries all but wiped out his 2023 season, so there’s some projection of recovery here. But he’s always thrived as a pocket surgeon, and he’s still got top-tier weaponry to go with a bolstered front. Don’t be shocked if his timely touch has Cincinnati right back in the title conversation.

 

5  C.J. Stroud              Texans

The feel-good story of the 2023 quarterback class, Stroud was lights out as both a level-headed leader and downfield attacker in his pro debut. Now he’s got Stefon Diggs added to a growing skill group, and a feistier defense on his side. Preseason MVP hype incoming.

 

6  Lamar Jackson       Ravens

His return to elite form in 2023 ended with a relative whimper, but that doesn’t change the fact he remains one of the league’s toughest players to defend on a down-to-down basis. Dual-threat home runs are effortless to him. Derrick Henry should aid on the ground, too.

 

7   Jalen Hurts             Eagles

In a tumultuous 2023 Eagles season, not even the notoriously even-keeled Hurts was immune to mercurial spurts. But his setup remains elite, as does his penchant for clutch toughness, and a fresh play-caller in Kellen Moore could rekindle aspirations of another title bid.

 

8  Dak Prescott      Cowboys

The Cowboys are “all in” on pressuring him to perform, allowing the veteran to enter a contract year after another one-and-done playoff bid. But he’s solid enough in every facet, with a still-solid supporting cast featuring CeeDee Lamb and a new left tackle, to find a spendy taker come 2025.

 

9  Justin Herbert        Chargers

He’s gotten flak recently for an inability to translate early career numbers into big-time wins. And now his supporting cast has been swapped out. But the arm is there, and new coach Jim Harbaugh should settle things down by prioritizing a tougher ground game.

 

10   Jordan Love           Packers

One of the most dazzling watches of late 2023, Love must prove he can rein in his inner Brett Favre as a gifted thrower, but one year into his gig as Green Bay’s full-timer, he sure looks to have the moxie of a long-term playmaker. His young weapons are still growing, too.

 

11  Aaron Rodgers          Jets

If he’s upright, he may well remain a top-five player at the position, capable of maximizing the Jets ‘ playoff-caliber lineup. But there is a lot of mystery here; Rodgers isn’t just 40 and coming off a season lost to a serious injury, but he arguably also hasn’t posted elite marks in three years.

 

12  Tua Tagovailoa           Dolphins

On script and well protected, he’s a video-game-like distributor for a high-octane offense. But what’s the ceiling here, considering the Mike McDaniel regime is still searching for its first playoff victory? That remains a burning question entering Year 5 of his career.

 

13  Jared Goff                     Lions

Perhaps no signal-caller has done more to restore respect in recent years, rewriting his reputation as a gutsy figurehead for the Lions ‘ return to relevance. Now comes another chance to prove himself, fresh off a bid for a Super Bowl appearance that painfully fell short.

 

14  Kirk Cousins                Falcons

Under pressure to make good on his big free-agent deal after the Falcons ‘ surprise first-round pick of Michael Penix Jr. , Cousins adds much-needed reliability to an ascending Atlanta squad. Going on 36 and coming off an Achilles tear, he still projects as a steady play-action rifle.

 

15  Trevor Lawrence           Jaguars

It’s tough to find a more hot-and-cold starter of the last few seasons. Lawrence exhibits all the zeal and physical tools of a former No. 1 pick, but he’s looking to cut down on forced throws and communication miscues with a remade receiving corps, now starring the speedster Gabe Davis .

 

16  Matthew Stafford           Rams

We saw a good deal of the Super Bowl-style Stafford late in 2023, with the aging gunslinger rediscovering his trademark passing gusto. But we have to remember he’s 36 with an injury history. The Rams are still in a weird middle ground of contending and restocking for the long haul.

 

17 Deshaun Watson                Browns

Another year, another inevitable gamble from Cleveland, hoping that this time, finally, Watson will be healthy enough — on and off the field — to justify the team’s investment. He flashed as a play-extending passer in 2023, but only in between abrupt and nagging injuries.

 

18  Geno Smith                     Seahawks

His efficiency took a predictable dip after his Comeback Player of the Year breakout, and Sam Howell’s arrival as the new No. 2 adds an interesting wrinkle under a new coaching staff. But Smith still has a lively arm and a well-rounded skill group, and his defense should be improved, too.

 

19  Russell Wilson                    Steelers

Settling for a one-year, prove-it deal as one part of the Steelers ‘ quarterback makeover, Wilson’s experience makes him a safe bet to open as QB1 over Justin Fields . He’s also wired for an old-school, play-action-style offense like the one Arthur Smith is set to deploy.

 

20  Baker Mayfield                     Buccaneers

The journeyman did a lot to boost his stock in 2023, which was not often pretty, but still made Tampa Bay a tough, scrappy out. Is he due for regression on a team with largely the same lineup? Perhaps. But he might still be enough to keep this club hanging in the wild-card race.

 

21   Kyler Murray                        Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr . finally gives him a No. 1 target on the outside, and his late-2023 strides suggested he was settling in following injury rehab. But for all his athletic gifts, Murray’s still looking to pin down consistency through the air, and Arizona remains in rebuild mode.

 

22   Will Levis                          Titans

Here’s your sleeper for a major breakout. Levis is rough and tumble, like an even more reckless version of Josh Allen . But the Titans prioritized immediate help for him up front and out wide, so he has a chance to stay healthier and put that ultra-toned arm to work in an open division.

 

23  Caleb Williams                     Bears

Any and every rookie is a projection, even the No. 1 overall pick. But Williams actually has a quality supporting cast out of the gate, unlike Justin Fields before him. Savvy vets like D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen should help take some of the load off as he debuts his heralded arm.

 

24  Anthony Richardson               Colts

When healthy, he was a supersized fireworks show as a rookie, showcasing steady mobility and a huge arm. But he was banged up multiple times in just four games, rendering him a big unknown.

 

25  J.J. McCarthy                      Vikings

Unlike Caleb Williams , McCarthy isn’t even guaranteed to start in Week 1, with Sam Darnold also in tow. But he’s got arguably the best situation of any rookie signal-caller, plopped into a Kevin O’Connell offense with Pro Bowl-level talent at every spot. He’s got a path to immediate success.

 

26  Derek Carr                          Saints

Entering Year 11, Carr has proven he knows his way around a short-area offense. He also took a beating in his Saints debut. It’s tough to forecast anything other than another wild-card flirtation.

 

27  Jacoby Brissett                  Patriots

It’s possible Drake Maye , this year’s No. 3 overall pick, could get the Week 1 nod. But Brissett knows the system, and what he lacks in eye-popping tools, he sometimes offsets with steadiness.

 

28 Jayden Daniels                   Commanders

His pairing of electric mobility and a solid, veteran-littered supporting cast may well mean an easier transition to the NFL than fellow rookies. But his wiry frame has also yet to endure an NFL snap.

 

29 Gardner Minshew                    Raiders

Aidan O’Connell will also get a legit crack to retain QB1 duties after a decent interim stint in 2023. Minshew has been serviceable more than special, but he’s got proven spunk and mobility.

 

30  Bo Nix                                 Broncos

Sean Payton and Co. are talking up Nix’s NFL-readiness after a conservative, but effective run at Oregon. He’s actually got a decent setup in Denver, all things considered. But only time will tell.

 

31  Bryce Young                       Panthers

It’ll be hard for Young, last year’s No. 1 pick, not to take a step forward after an often-hapless debut. New coach Dave Canales should help, along with a refreshed receiving corps.

 

32  Daniel Jones                       Giants

The Giants reportedly dabbled with replacing their rehabbing investment, whose ball-security issues returned behind a porous line in 2023. Perhaps Malik Nabers can restore his fortunes.

We would stand with anyone in our love of BROCK PURDY, but has he really earned a number 2 ranking?  Wouldn’t 7 or so be a more accurate spot?

And speaking of number 7, a year ago we might have had JALEN HURTS there, but shouldn’t he be down in the mid-teens going into 2024?

RUSSELL WILSON at 19 also seems a bit high.

Who would we move up?  TUA TAGOVIALOA at 12, JARED GOFF at 13 and KYLER MURRAY at 21 would be three we think are undervalued.

 

BROADCAST NEWS

They gathered in Arkansas this week to honor the life of ESPN’s Chris Mortensen who passed away in March.  This from Samantha Steele Ponder:

@samponder

I got to attend my friend Chris Mortensen’s funeral in Arkansas today. It was emotional, of course… a whole, full life summed up in just a couple hours. But I was struck by a few things:

 

1) No one mentioned a single TV report he ever made. He was one of the best in his whole industry, gave his whole working life to ESPN, but not one person brought up his actual work, only the way he treated people while he was doing it.

 

2) Every single person mentioned the way he talked about his family while he was at work… the way he esteemed his wife, Micki and how proud he was of Alex.

 

3) He was very matter of fact about his faith, but never pushy. He would ask you how your faith was but never judged, and never made you feel ashamed for where you were at. He just wanted to talk about it because it mattered to him.

 

4) He was hilarious. The only person he made fun of more than you was himself. 😂

 

Singing Great is Thy Faithfulness with his friends, family and colleagues is something I will treasure until it’s my time to go too. You did well, Mort. ❤️

Mort was the best.

 

THE SECOND BYE

This from Mike Florio on comments by Bengals QB JOE BURROW:

When Commissioner Roger Goodell officially lit the fuse on an 18-game season, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow made a pitch on social media for two bye weeks.

 

On Tuesday, Burrow expanded on his request for more down time, if there will be another week of “go” time for each team.

 

“Eighteen games is definitely a big ask, that’s not easy,” Burrow said, via WLWT.com. “Adding that extra game, obviously it’d be great for revenue. But I feel like adding that bye week, if you’re going to have an 18 game schedule, is pretty critical for our bodies.

 

“If you keep that first bye week — some teams have that first bye Week 5, Week 6 — and then you’re going 12, 13 games in a row. That’s not easy. Probably a Thursday night game thrown in there, too, That’s never easy. So, those two byes are pretty critical.”

 

Burrow trotted out another idea for the second bye: Shut down the whole league for a week.

 

“Maybe you could do something like, the first bye is kind of how we have it now, and the second bye everybody has it at once, and you make it like the Pro Bowl week, like an All-Star break for the NBA,” Burrow said. “I don’t know, people get paid a lot of money to have those discussions and make those decisions.”

 

One reason those people get paid a lot of money is they know how to make a lot of money. Shutting down the entire league for a week during football season would not do that.

 

The argument against two byes is that the networks don’t like it, because it dilutes the weekly schedules. In 1993, the league had two byes in a 16-game schedule, and the networks hated it.

 

Of course, there were only 28 teams at the time. And it was before free agency took root. Teams are more balanced now. Also, the schedule wouldn’t look as light with 32 teams.

 

Still, the last thing the league would do is take an entire weekend off. With 18 games and two byes, that’s 20 weeks of regular-season football. Which the NFL will embrace with open arms and full coffers — until the NFL tries to push for 19 games and then 20.

While 32 teams provides more options in theory, there weren’t the plethora of off Sunday games then that there is now – two games on Mondays being the most offensive.