The Daily Briefing Wednesday, November 16, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

Here is how we got to 16:

So – let’s say 4 in England each year, 2 in Germany each year (Munich and Frankfurt), 1 in Paris, 1 in Madrid, 2 in Mexico – we are up to 10.  We need six more.  We would add a true regular season Hall of Fame Game in Canton (say on Thursday night in Week 3 to start the induction weekend), 1 in Australia, 1 in China/Japan/Korea.  Three to go. 

How about a College Classic each year, rotating thru the great college stadiums in non-NFL states like Lincoln, Norman, Tuscaloosa. 

Two to go.  Canada?  A Bills game in Toronto every other year, a Seahawks game in Vancouver every other year.

One short.  A game in St. Louis every year?  Featuring either the Rams or Cardinals.

Someone who is savvy about NFL TV viewers reached out and endorsed the idea of the College Classic (or two).

Expanding on their point made in a brief email, apparently NFL interest in areas outside the big metros is stagnant in the wake of the NFL’s woke initiatives spurred by Colin Kaepernick. The DB knows a several folks who profess to having gone cold turkey on the league (although not all are “rural”) since the slogans started appearing on helmets and behind end zones.

So the point made by our correspondent was that a regional team’s game in an outer market could be more beneficial to the NFL than a game in a foreign capital.

Think Chiefs in Lincoln or Iowa City or Columbia.

Think Broncos in Laramie or Boise or Colorado Springs.

Think Saints in Starkville or Auburn or Memphis (against the Titans?)

Think Seahawks in Pullman or Eugene or Anchorage.

Thinks 49ers in Reno

Think Commanders in Charlottesville or Blacksburg

Think Titans in Knoxville

Think Bengals in Lexington

Think Lions in Lansing or Packers in Madison.

Think Cowboys in Austin or Lubbock or Norman or Albuquerque

Think Tua returning to Tuscaloosa to play another NFL team with a former Crimson Tide standout

Thinks of the Saints in Baton Rouge against Joe Burrow and the Bengals.

Keep thinking…

– – –

The Eagles remain the Super Bowl favorite in the DVOA-based computations at Football Outsiders:

As far as the first overall pick goes, Houston is nearly 50-50 to have the top draft pick:

CHICAGO

Chicago’s best running back, although not the team’s best rusher, goes on IR.  Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times:

The NFL’s best rushing offense will have to make do without its leading running back for four weeks, if not longer.

The Bears put Khalil Herbert on injured reserve Tuesday, two days after he hurt his hip while returning a fourth-quarter kickoff in a loss to the Lions.

Losing Herbert is a major blow to an offense that has mastered the ground attack. Led by quarterback Justin Fields’ record-setting rushing performances, the Bears average a league-best 201.7 rushing yards per game. No other team tops 169.

Herbert has averaged six yards per carry, which was tied with the Cowboys’ Tony Pollard for the most by any healthy running back in the NFL.

Herbert has run 108 times for 643 yards while sharing backfield duties with David Montgomery. Herbert was the home-run hitter, while Montgomery, who is in the final year of his contract, was more adept in short-yardage situations. Montgomery has run 115 times for 434 yards, an average of only 3.8 yards per carry.

Fields leads the team with 749 rushing yards.

The Bears could turn to Trestan Ebner to take Herbert’s place in the backfield. The rookie from Baylor has run 18 times for 46 yards and, like Herbert, has returned kicks for the Bears. He played 14 snaps against the Giants with Montgomery hurt — and only 36 the rest of the season.

Rookie wide receiver Velus Jones, a healthy scratch the last two weeks, also could return kicks.

Herbert was one of the breakout stars of the Bears’ offense, which has averaged 31 points the last four games. In only his second season, he joins Fields, tight end Cole Kmet and wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool as skill-position building blocks on the 3-7 team.

Herbert hurt his hip with 2:17 left. He fell to the ground as he was hit by Lions safety C.J. Moore and struggled to stand back up.

Players on injured reserve must miss at least four weeks, meaning Herbert could return Dec. 18 against the Eagles, at the earliest. It’s unclear if he’ll be out longer.

Coach Matt Eberflus was mum Monday when asked about Herbert, saying that the team wouldn’t address anyone’s status until the league-mandated injury report on Wednesday.

GREEN BAY

The Packers can no longer tolerate fumble-prone PR/WR AMARI ROGERS.  Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:

Amari Rodgers’ fumble against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, his fifth of the season, didn’t just cost him the punt return job. It cost him his roster spot with the Green Bay Packers.

The team released Rodgers on Tuesday, one day after it was noncommittal about his status as the returner.

Rodgers’ fumble against the Cowboys came early in the third quarter of a 14-14 game. The Cowboys turned that into a touchdown and scored again on their next possession to build a 28-14 lead. The Packers came back to win 31-28 in overtime, snapping a five-game losing streak.

Rodgers’ five fumbles, including four on punt returns, are the most by any non-quarterback in the NFL this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Defensive back Keisean Nixon replaced Rodgers on punt returns against the Cowboys and could continue in that role on Thursday night against the Tennessee Titans.

Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst traded a fourth-round pick to the Titans in order to move up seven spots to draft Rodgers in the third round (No. 85 overall) in 2021. Only one player drafted higher since 2019 is no longer on the Packers’ roster, and that’s 2019 third-round pick Jace Sternberger (No. 75 overall).

Rodgers averaged 8.3 yards per punt return this season and had just four catches for 50 yards as a receiver.

“I really like Amari Rodgers,” Packers special teams coach Rich Bisaccia said Monday. “Jersey No. 8 has put himself and put us in some bad situations. So you have to coach the man first, and then coach the player. We have to go through both of those things when these situations arise. So as of right now, we’re evaluating the position, and we’ll see how it turns out Thursday night.”

MINNESOTA

WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON is one of two wide receivers who could top Calvin Johnson’s record for receiving yards in a season.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The 2,000-yard season has never been reached by a wide receiver in NFL history, but Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson may do it this season.

Jefferson has 1,060 yards through nine games this season, putting him on pace for 2,003 yards in a 17-game season. That would be an NFL first.

The NFL record for receiving yards in a season is 1,964, set by Calvin Johnson in 2012. Johnson did it in 16 games, and Jefferson will benefit from the 17-game season as he pursues Johnson’s record.

Jefferson is actually not leading the league in receiving yards this season; Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill has 1,148 yards this season. But the Vikings have only played nine games and the Dolphins have played 10, so Hill is on pace to come up short of the record and finish with 1,952 yards in 17 games.

Jefferson is coming off a career-best 193 yards in Sunday’s win over the Bills. He’s showing no signs of slowing down, and at age 23 his best football may still be ahead of him.

PHILADELPHIA

An update on TE DALLAS GOEDERT from Zach Berman of The Athletic:

Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert is expected to miss multiple weeks after sustaining a shoulder injury during Philadelphia’s loss against the Commanders on Monday night, a league source told The Athletic. Here’s what you need to know:

There’s no word yet on whether Goedert’s going on injured reserve at this point in time with tests still ongoing.

The injury is not expected to end Goedert’s season, according to a report from the NFL Network.

Backstory

Goedert suffered the injury with about nine minutes left in the game and the Eagles were down 23-21 after losing a fumble. Washington’s Jamin Davis scooped up the ball and ran for what was originally called a touchdown. Davis was later ruled down at the Eagles’ 34-yard line.

Goedert has been one of the best weapons at tight end in 2022 with 43 receptions for 544 yards and three touchdowns.

How Goedert’s injury impacts the Eagles

Goedert is one of the NFL’s elite tight ends and there’s a clear dropoff on the depth chart behind him. The No. 2 tight end is Jack Stoll, who has played 40 percent of the offensive snaps but is used more as a blocker. He has eight career catches in 25 games. Third-string tight end Grant Calcaterra, a rookie out of SMU, showed pass-catching potential in training camp. He lacks experience, with only one reception (for 40 yards) to his name this season.

The timing also coincides with the expected return of Tyree Jackson, a promising 6-foot-7 converted quarterback who tore his ACL in Week 18 last year and returned to practice last month. But these options don’t compare to Goedert, and it’s likely the Eagles rely more on their other pass-catching options — specifically A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but also secondary receivers such as Quez Watkins and Zach Pascal.

WASHINGTON

One gets the sense that Coach Ron Rivera is in no rush to re-insert QB CARSON WENTZ into the starting lineup. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

With Carson Wentz eligible to return to practice and be activated from injured reserve this week, Commanders head coach Ron Rivera has held off on naming a starting quarterback for Week 11’s game against the Texans.

Rivera said on Tuesday that the team has to see where Wentz is physically in his return from finger surgery, but other comments seemed to point in the direction of Taylor Heinicke remaining in the starting lineup. The Commanders have won three of his four starts, including Monday’s takedown of the Eagles, and the team has generally looked more energetic in those outings, which Rivera said will be part of his decision.

“You have to look at the momentum,” Rivera said, via Nicki Jhabvala of the Washington Post. “You have to look at what the mood of the team is, obviously. You look at what is best for the team, and at the end of the day, that’s how it has to be.”

Given those considerations, moving away from Heinicke would seem to be a tough call for the Commanders to make but we’ll see what the week brings in Washington.

TAMPA BAY

We learn that former coach Bruce Arians spent some time in the hospital recently. He was diagnosed with some of the myocarditis that is on the upswing recently.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Former Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians has fought his way through a series of health issues over the years. He recently shared with Ira Kaufman of JoeBucsFan.com that a problem last month resulted in a four-day hospitalization.

Arians told Kaufman that, on October 8, Arians experienced severe chest pains.

“On the night before the Atlanta game, we had a house full of people,” Arians said. “We ate and I got these pains way up here, like two knives going in. The more I tried to take a breath, the worse it got.

“I took some TUMS, thinking it was indigestion, but it just got worse. I called Christine back to the bedroom and said I can’t shake this pain. We called 911 and they put me on a stretcher to Tampa General.”

Doctor feared that Arians had suffered a mild heart attack. He was diagnosed with myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle.

“Thankfully, the scans showed no fluid, no heart damage and absolutely no blockages,” Arians said. “They had a cardiac radiologist look at everything and they ended up giving me anti-inflammatories.”

Arians spent four days in the hospital. He hasn’t traveled with the team since then. He has attended a pair of home games.

Arians will be added to the Tampa Bay Ring of Honor on January 1.

ARIZONA

We put a couple of reports on RB ENO BENJAMIN and his sudden departure from the Cardinals in HOUSTON (below) since he is now a Texan.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

WR COOPER KUPP is having ankle surgery, but his 2022 season might not be over.  Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com:

Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp will have ankle surgery Wednesday and be placed on injured reserve, coach Sean McVay said Tuesday.

Kupp will miss at least four games on injured reserve, but McVay did not rule the receiver out for the rest of the season. McVay said the “tightrope” procedure that will be performed on Kupp typically has a recovery time of five to six weeks.

Kupp suffered a high ankle sprain in the Rams’ Week 10 loss to the Arizona Cardinals in the fourth quarter while attempting to catch a pass from quarterback John Wolford. Kupp appeared to grab his right ankle after the play and was helped to the bench by the team’s medical staff.

“Obviously you never ever replace a player like Cooper Kupp, but we’ve got to figure out the best way to accentuate the skill sets of the guys that will be playing,” McVay said.

HOUSTON

Houston, the top team on the waivers claim list because it is the bottom team in the NFL standings, jumped on RB ENO BENJAMIN, a surprise cut by the Cardinals.  Donnie Druin of SI.com:

Drew Rosenhaus, agent for former Arizona Cardinals running back Eno Benjamin, said his client wouldn’t have a hard time finding a new team.

Turns out, he was right.

On Tuesday, it was reported by NFL Media’ Ian Rapoport the Houston Texans had claimed Benjamin on waivers.

Benjamin was released by Arizona on Monday following a reported conflict between him and an assistant coach after he played just one snap in the team’s 27-17 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

The Cardinals, per ESPN’s Josh Weinfuss, told Benjamin on Saturday evening he would not have a role at SoFi Stadium. He played just one snap, the lowest all season. Rookie running back Keaontay Ingram played five.

Benjamin has rushed for 299 yards on 70 attempts (4.3 YPC) for two touchdowns this season, cementing himself as Arizona’s RB2 and even got all three starts for the Cardinals while James Conner was out due to injury.

Sunday was also the first time all season where Benjamin, who also handled kickoff return duties for Arizona, didn’t touch the ball at least five times in a game.

Per Field Yates of ESPN.com, the Saints, Seahawks, and Chiefs also put in a waiver claim for Benjamin.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic tries to piece together why Benjamin was cut:

This Cardinals season hasn’t been stocked with many positive stories, which made Eno Benjamin’s stand out like a lone book on a shelf.

But that story ended Monday when the Cardinals announced they had released the former Arizona State running back. It was a surprising move, at least until pieces of the back story began to leak.

Benjamin played just one offensive snap in Sunday’s victory over the Rams, and he didn’t hide his displeasure at his diminished role, per sources. That included getting into a confrontation with an assistant coach after the game.

It was enough for the Cardinals to move on from a player they had been raving about since last spring. When the season started, we could see why. Benjamin was a capable backup to James Conner, and there wasn’t a decline when he started three games while Conner was hurt.

Benjamin rushed for 92 yards in a victory over the Saints, and overall averaged 4.3 yards a carry, a half-yard more than Conner.

So what changed?

Conner, for one. He was fully recovered from an injury to his ribs and was ready to reassume a full-time role last week, coach Kliff Kingsbury said. Conner gained 69 yards on 21 carries, a 3.3-yard average, but he scored two touchdowns.

“I thought he played at a high level and got better as the game went on,” Kingsbury said.

That left Benjamin on the sideline, apparently fuming.

I get. It’s a natural reaction. It’s hard to go from playing 27 percent of the snaps the week before to 1.47 percent.

But it’s also a player’s job to accept it and to go in the game when asked, even if it’s for only one play. Complaints to the boss should come well after the game and in private, not on the sideline, or in a locker room that was finally full of smiles.

Benjamin reportedly was surprised by his release. When asked about a confrontation between Benjamin and an assistant coach after the game, Benjamin’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, replied: “I’m not aware of that. I don’t believe that is accurate.”

It doesn’t seem to jibe with the player who became a fan favorite because of his ties to ASU and his ascension on the Cardinals’ depth chart this year. But we all have moments in our lives that we wish we had handled better.

News of Benjamin’s release broke less than an hour after Kingsbury’s press conference on Monday ended, and he’s not scheduled to meet with media again until Wednesday. It’s not likely he’s going to go into detail about why Benjamin is now an ex-Cardinal.

But it’s clear the Cardinals cut Benjamin for a reason that had nothing to do with his performance on the field. With Darrel Williams on injured reserve, they aren’t awash in running backs. Rookie Keontay Ingram hasn’t played much, although the Cardinals do have two backs on the practice squad with some experience: Corey Clement and Ty’Son Williams.

Until this week, Conner and Benjamin were clearly the top two backs.

Conner signed a three-year, $21 million deal last off-season, $13.5 million of which is guaranteed. Benjamin, making $900,000 this year, was never going to replace Conner, but he was proving to be a solid NFL player.

Maybe Wednesday’s episode of “Hard Knocks In Season: The Arizona Cardinals” will provide more details about what led to Benjamin’s departure, but I would be surprised, given the team has some editorial control.

Rosenhaus, meanwhile, was confident Benjamin will have no problem finding employment. And he was right — Houston claimed him on waivers on Tuesday, per reports.

Practically nothing has been easy when it comes to playing for the Cardinals this season. There have been a lot of injuries. Few people have played well, and Kingsbury and his staff have had trouble giving players something that works.

Several players have ping-ponged between starting one week and barely playing the next. It’s happened to linebacker Isaiah Simmons, receiver A.J. Green and receiver Greg Dortch. All are still on the team, and Benjamin is not. That suggests Benjamin could have handled his disappointment last Sunday better.

That’s too bad because it felt like the Cardinals were the perfect fit for Benjamin. And then they weren’t. Just like that.

INDIANAPOLIS

An injury setback in Indianapolis.

Colts All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard underwent his second back surgery in five months on Tuesday, a procedure that is expected to officially end his frustrating season.

Leonard’s agent, Malki Kawa, posted a video on Instagram showing Leonard in a hospital recovery room, offering a message directed to Colts fans.

“What’s up Colts nation,” Leonard said. “Just had back surgery. Feeling good, feeling great. Ready to get the recovery going and ready to get back out there. Let’s get it.”

Leonard, 27, was placed on injured reserve last week after suffering a setback in his road back from offseason back surgery. Leonard has been dealing with a recurring lower-leg pain that, finally, was diagnosed as being the result of an impinged nerve in his back.

He underwent surgery in June to address the problem and had a slow and methodical recovery that sidelined him for the season’s first three games. After initially returning and sustaining a broken nose in Week 4, Leonard was back on the field in Weeks 8 and 9 before leaving practice early on Wednesday with a sensation that “felt different,” according to interim coach Jeff Saturday.

Leonard, a three-time All-Pro selection, has been affected by lower leg pain for years and last year had ankle surgery. That makes this his third surgery since the summer of 2021 — one he and the Colts hope will be the final procedure in this long-running saga.

THIS AND THAT

2023 COACHING CANDIDATES

Mike Jones of The Athletic still has Eric Bieniemy on his list of hot coaching candidates.  We expect to see DeMeco Ryans, DC of the 49ers and Jarod Mayo of the Patriots:

Eight weeks still remain in the NFL regular season, yet we already know that at least two teams — the Panthers and Colts — will be in the market for head coaches. Others will likely join them.

Carolina fired Matt Rhule on Oct. 10 and named Steve Wilks the interim head coach. Wilks, who was in his first season as the Panthers’ defensive passing game coordinator and secondary coach, has gone 3-3 since his promotion. Indianapolis decided last week to cut ties with Frank Reich and elevate team consultant Jeff Saturday to the interim job. Saturday, despite having no pro or college football coaching experience, beat the Raiders 25-20 in his first game in his new role.

We’ll see over the next two months whether either will perform well enough to earn the permanent job. In the meantime, officials of those teams, and others potentially considering a head coaching change, will closely monitor the work of the NFL’s top assistants while drafting their list of prospective candidates.

Some assistants from this year’s top squads already are on the radar. With strong finishes to the regular season and postseason, they can strengthen the opinion of their bodies of work while positioning themselves to interview for highly coveted head coaching positions.

Here are some of the leading assistants to watch during the homestretch of the regular season and as the firing and hiring window approaches.

Leslie Frazier, Bills defensive coordinator

The 63-year-old Frazier again leads one of the most dominant defenses in the game, and is one of the most qualified candidates out there, with 24 years of NFL coaching experience and another 11 years at the college level. The former defensive back is regarded as a strong leader and as a strategic defensive mind. In his previous stint as a head coach (2010-2013 in Minnesota), Frazier had one playoff appearance.

DeMeco Ryans, 49ers defensive coordinator

The 38-year-old former Pro Bowl middle linebacker has established himself as one of the NFL’s best defensive coordinators. He boasts an exceptional feel for the game, strong communication skills and leadership qualities that cause NFL insiders to believe it’s only a matter of time before he’s directing his own team.

Dan Quinn, Cowboys defensive coordinator

Quinn, 52, has 19 years of NFL coaching experience, including six as a head coach and four as a coordinator. His Cowboys unit ranks sixth in points allowed (18.2), 11th in total yards (324.8) and first in sacks (35). Quinn went 43-42 as head coach in Atlanta (2015-2020) with a Super Bowl appearance in Year 2.

Eric Bieniemy, Chiefs offensive coordinator

As Andy Reid’s right-hand man, Beieniemy, 53, is part of the brain trust behind one of the league’s most prolific offenses the last five seasons. Yet the former running back has been passed over for head coaching positions repeatedly. Reid stood on the table for him during last spring’s owners’ meetings. Is this the year Bieniemy finally gets the nod?

Byron Leftwich, Bucs offensive coordinator

The 42-year-old Leftwich’s star has dimmed slightly as the Buccaneers offense regressed while dealing with free agent and retirement losses and a rash of early injuries. But the former NFL quarterback has thrived overall as an OC in Tampa Bay, where his units have ranked among the top 10 in total offense in each of the last four years. A finalist for Jacksonville’s head gig last winter, Leftwich is likely to have suitors this offseason as well.

Jonathan Gannon, Eagles defensive coordinator

The 39-year-old Gannon has directed a top-10 defense in each of his first two seasons with the Eagles. This year, his unit ranks third in total yards (299), first against the pass (177.6) and third in points (16.9).

Shane Steichen, Philadelphia offensive coordinator

In two seasons as Nick Sirianni’s offensive coordinator and play-caller, Steichen has been instrumental in the development of Jalen Hurts and the improved effectiveness and explosiveness of the Eagles’ offense. Philadelphia is ranked fourth in yards (376.9) and third in points (27.3).

Jerod Mayo, New England linebackers coach

The former Pro Bowl linebacker and Super Bowl champion ranks among Bill Belichick’s top assistants and garnered attention in the last head coaching hiring cycle. Mayo, 36, helps oversee a defense that ranks seventh in points allowed (18.4) and second in sacks (32).

Kellen Moore, Dallas offensive coordinator

Moore, 33, has been among the more intriguing assistants for several years now while helping run a Cowboys offense that in 2021 led the league in both yards and points. The former backup quarterback is viewed as a sharp offensive mind while displaying a good rapport with quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush.

Others to watch

Things can change quickly from year to year. Last offseason, Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and tight ends coach/assistant head coach Thomas Brown both had interest from teams, but the battered defending Super Bowl champs are now struggling mightily. Patrick Graham is in a similar situation. After attracting interest in the last hiring cycle while defensive coordinator of the Giants, he eventually accepted the same job with the Raiders. But with Las Vegas struggling, it’s hard to know if Graham will be a head coach candidate again this offseason. The same can be said of Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

Pittsburgh assistant coach Brian Flores boasts head coaching experience and led the Dolphins to winning records in two of his three seasons, but teams might shy away from him because of his ongoing discrimination lawsuit against that team, Giants, Broncos and the NFL itself.

One more name to keep an eye on: Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, 38, who interviewed for the Denver head coaching position last season and this season directs a unit that ranks eighth in yards and sixth in points. He might, however, need a little more seasoning.

BROADCAST NEWS

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com says that Amazon’s ratings have hit bottom and will begin to rebound:

Amazon expected better. The good news is that better could be coming.

After telling advertisers that it would have an average of 12.5 million viewers for Thursday Night Football on Prime Video and then quibbling with Nielsen as to the accuracy of its numbers, Amazon Prime has seen the official ratings slip to a season low.

Via SportsMediaWatch.com, the Week 10 games between the Falcons and the Panthers averaged 6.8 million viewers. That’s the smallest audience of 2022.

It also dragged the season average under 10 million for the first time. Currently, with nine games played, Amazon’s average viewership is 9.65 million.

Amazon disagrees with the Nielsen numbers, because of course it does. Amazon insists that the season average is 11.4 million.

Whatever the real numbers, they’ll be getting better. In two nights, the Packers host the Titans. Then, after taking a week off for Thanksgiving, it’s Bills at Patriots. Then Raiders at Rams. (OK, that one won’t be so good.) Next, 49ers at Seahawks. After that, Jaguars at Jets. (Thanks to the home team, it should do well — especially in the local market via broadcast TV.)

The Amazon season ends with Cowboys at Titans. The key there is “Cowboys.” They’ll deliver, even if they were playing a team from the WGAFFL.

So, yes, the numbers will improve. Still, they’ll likely fall short of the preseason expectations.

But that’s fine. The expectations were always too high. Coming close should count as a win, especially in the first year of the NFL’s streaming experiment.

2022 FREE AGENCY

If there are 24 free agents better than Dolphins TE MIKE GISECKI, then 2023 free agency is pretty tasty.  Matt Bowen and Mike Tannenbaum of ESPN.com survey the landscape:

We’re through 10 weeks of the NFL season and teams will soon start thinking about their 2023 offseason plans. Of course, part of that is their approach to free agency, with the negotiation period set to begin on March 13. Who should each franchise try to re-sign, and who will ultimately walk?

NFL analyst Matt Bowen looked at the current group of players primed to hit unrestricted free agency — due to expiring contracts or deals in line to void — and ranked the top 25 who might end up available, starting with one of the top quarterbacks in the game in Lamar Jackson. Five passers make the list, along with multiple playmakers on both sides of the ball. Factors in the ranking include age, positional value (QBs get a boost), expected future production and scheme versatility.

We’re still a long way from the actual free agency period, though, and a lot can change. Bradley Chubb, who would have been high on this list, just signed an extension with Miami after being dealt to the Dolphins at the trade deadline. He won’t be alone — many of the players listed below will re-sign with their current franchises before March. So NFL analyst and former general manager Mike Tannenbaum predicted which ranked players will be re-signed or franchise tagged by their 2022 team and which ones will be allowed to test the open market. Let’s jump in, starting with Jackson.

1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

2022 salary: $23.1 million

Age entering 2023 season: 26

Why he could get paid: Jackson is the league’s most electric player, with an upper-tier skill set that creates major issues for opposing defenses. He ranks fifth in Total QBR this season (65.0, up from 56.8 in 2021) and is averaging 7.4 yards per carry when he runs. With more than 2,000 total yards already this season — and the positional value to demand a multiyear contract — Jackson is clearly the top free agent next year. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Baltimore? Baltimore will do all that it can to keep him, even if that means using the franchise tag on Jackson, who will be entering his sixth season in 2023. The situation got slightly more complicated when the Ravens acquired linebacker Roquan Smith, another pending free agent who they will want to re-sign. — Tannenbaum

2. Orlando Brown Jr., OT, Kansas City Chiefs

2022 salary: $16.7 million

Age entering 2023 season: 27

Why he could get paid: Brown is a massive performer in the run game at 6-foot-8 and 340 pounds and utilizes his frame to compensate for average foot and body quickness in pass protection. This season, Brown has registered a pass block win rate of 89.6% when blocking for Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Kansas City? The Chiefs invested a lot of draft capital in acquiring Brown from the Ravens, so I expect them to re-sign him to a big-money deal — even though he’s probably not a top-five offensive tackle in the NFL. — Tannenbaum

3. Elgton Jenkins, OT/G, Green Bay Packers

2022 salary: $4.7 million

Age entering 2023 season: 27

Why he could get paid: Jenkins’ injury history will be a part of this discussion, after he was limited to eight games last season. When healthy, he is a fleet-footed blocker with lateral agility and the skills to redirect in space. Jenkins has positional flexibility on the offensive line, too; he has more than 850 career snaps at both tackle and guard and also lined up at center 287 times in 2020. As a strong anchor in pass protection, he has a pass block win rate of 85.0% this season, a bit off his stellar career rate of 93.2%. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Green Bay? This is a tough one. Jenkins is a great player, but I’d be a bit concerned about signing him to a big guarantee because of the injuries. Green Bay might let him leave in free agency. — Tannenbaum

4. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

2022 salary: $7.2 million

Age entering 2023 season: 26

Why he could get paid: I consider Barkley a top-three running back. He has regained his explosiveness and suddenness after injuries limited him to 15 total games over the previous two seasons. He’s a difference-maker with big-play juice in both the run and pass game. Barkley has 23 carries of 10 or more yards this season and already is approaching 1,000 yards on the ground as the Giants pass midseason. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in New York? Yes, New York should absolutely try to keep him. Simply put, he’s an explosive, high-character difference-maker who is playing a big part in the Giants’ 7-2 start. — Tannenbaum

5. Marcus Davenport, DE, New Orleans Saints

2022 salary: $3.0 million

Age entering 2023 season: 27

Why he could get paid: I’m betting on the 2021 numbers (nine sacks, three forced fumbles) and his physical profile as a powerful defensive end in both base and sub fronts. At 6-foot-6 and 262 pounds, Davenport has the traits to generate pass-rush production, and he will also set the edge in the run game. This season, Davenport has just a half-sack, but his 20 pressures point to an ability to create pocket disruption. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in New Orleans? I’m not sure the cap-strapped Saints should invest big money to keep Davenport. The 14th overall pick of the 2018 draft has been a little disappointing over five seasons outside of a strong 2021 campaign. New Orleans could look to Payton Turner as his replacement if the 2021 first-rounder keeps developing. — Tannenbaum

6. Roquan Smith, ILB, Baltimore Ravens

2022 salary: $6.6 million

Age entering 2023 season: 26

Why he could get paid: Traded to Baltimore at the deadline, Smith can rack up tackles as a run defender. He already has 88 this season and has cracked triple digits in every season of his career. Smith has three-down traits, with the ability to match in coverage and drive on the ball with his short area speed. He can also be used as a blitzer on pressure stunts. The 2018 first-round pick has 16.5 sacks and seven interceptions in his career, which shows his ability to make impact plays as an off-ball linebacker. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Baltimore? The Ravens sent multiple picks to Chicago to land Smith, so they absolutely will try to keep him. But if they opt to use the franchise tag on Lamar Jackson, that takes that option away for Smith. — Tannenbaum

7. Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 salary: $11.9 million

Age entering 2023 season: 46

Why he could get paid: Age and Brady’s future plans come into play here when assessing his value on the market. But even in his age-45 season, Brady’s 2,805 passing yards rank second in the NFL. His touchdown production is down this season (just 12 over 10 games), but the narrative of Brady’s “rapid decline” simply doesn’t mesh with what we see on tape. He is still a master of pre- and post-snap field vision, with refined pocket movement and an ultra-quick release — which allows him to attack all three levels of the field. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Tampa Bay? No one is arguing that Brady continues to play like the GOAT anymore, particularly since he will be 46 when the 2023 season kicks off. I imagine he will move on from his playing career after this season, which could put Tampa Bay in a tough spot. — Tannenbaum

8. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers

2022 salary: $14.7 million

Age entering 2023 season: 31

Why he could get paid: A timing and rhythm pocket thrower who is at his best in a schemed pass game, Garoppolo has completed 66.8% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions since stepping in for an injured Trey Lance in Week 2. He should be targeted in free agency as a midtier starter, especially for a team with a defined play-action route tree that caters to his release point and accurate throwing traits. Plus, the shoulder injury that hurt his 2022 offseason trade market is behind him. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in San Francisco? Yes, I know the Niners have Lance, but the 2021 first-rounder will be returning from a broken ankle and has a 37.9 career QBR. If San Francisco can figure out a way to keep him, it should. When he plays, it wins. And when the 49ers dealt for Christian McCaffrey, I thought it was a signal they would try to re-sign Garoppolo — the talented running back is yet another run-after-the-catch playmaker who fits Garoppolo’s skill set. But then again, Garoppolo might want to at least test the market and try to find a landing spot where he can be the unchallenged starter. — Tannenbaum

9. Javon Hargrave, DT, Philadelphia Eagles

2022 salary: $17.8 million

Age entering 2023 season: 30

Why he could get paid: Hargrave’s recent tape has him climbing the free agent rankings. The veteran tackle has six sacks and 28 tackles over his past three games. Slippery off the ball with an upfield burst, Hargrave can knife through protection to hit the quarterback or use his lower-body power to push the pocket. He has 33.5 career sacks, and his 18.6% pass rush win rate this season ranks fourth among interior linemen. And he also has the ability to control a gap in the run front. Even though he’ll turn 30, Hargrave should cash in this spring. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Philadelphia? Philadelphia just drafted Jordan Davis in April, but Hargrave is an extremely productive interior pass-rusher. Look at the impact he’s having on this defense. The Eagles will re-sign the veteran. — Tannenbaum

10. Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

2022 salary: $1.1 million

Age entering 2023 season: 26

Why he could get paid: Pollard’s speed in the run game and ability to produce out of the backfield as a receiver make him a sneaky top-end free agent. In a starting role for the Cowboys over the past two weeks due to Ezekiel Elliott’s knee injury, Pollard has rushed for 246 yards and four touchdowns. On the season, he is averaging six yards per carry and has 17 rushes of 10 or more yards. Pollard clearly has displayed the traits of a No. 1 back — and a good one. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Dallas? Another Dallas running back could be a free agent by March. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys opt to cut Elliott in order to keep Pollard, since it’s unlikely they’d be able to keep both. Simply put, Pollard is the better player right now, and it’s not that close. He is faster and more explosive, and the numbers back that up. — Tannenbaum

11. Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks

2022 salary: $3.5 million

Age entering 2023 season: 32

Why he could get paid: The veteran leads the NFL in completion percentage (72.8%) and his 67.7 Total QBR ranks fourth. That’s a long way from the 58.8% completion rate and 43.6 QBR he posted over 46 games prior to this season. But there’s no denying Smith is playing extremely efficient football, seeing it fast from the pocket. Those traits travel well to any NFL passing scheme. Smith has thrown for 2,474 yards, 17 touchdown passes and only four interception this season. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Seattle? If we truly go by what we see on the field these past 10 games, Smith deserves a meaningful extension in Seattle. The Seahawks are atop the NFC West after seemingly going the way of a rebuild. A lot of that should be credited to Smith, and I think the Seahawks will re-sign the veteran. Seattle also has Denver’s first-round draft pick in April from the Russell Wilson deal, however, and it’s starting to look like a potential top-five selection. Seattle could look at that as an opportunity to draft one of the class’ excellent QB prospects, which might mean it won’t spend big on Smith. — Tannenbaum

12. Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys

2022 salary: $10.9 million

Age entering 2023 season: 27

Why he could get paid: The Cowboys used the franchise tag on Schultz this past offseason after he posted career numbers in 2021 (78 receptions, 808 yards and eight touchdowns). That production has dipped this season, due in part to a knee injury. He has just 26 catches for 257 yards, and his lone touchdown just came in Week 10. The veteran doesn’t turn 27 until July, though. He’s a seam-stretcher who can be schemed on play-action or a boot to utilize his ability to run with a rugged approach after the catch. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Dallas? Schultz will probably be available when free agency begins. I think Dallas lets him walk and looks to rookie fourth-rounder Jake Ferguson — and potentially another less-expensive free agent — to replace him in the offense. — Tannenbaum

13. Lavonte David, ILB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 salary: $14.8 million

Age entering 2023 season: 33

Why he could get paid: The linebacker will turn 33 years old this offseason, but I’m still seeing a savvy, disruptive player on the tape. David is well-schooled as a zone defender, dropping to depth to impact throwing lanes, and there’s still enough pursuit speed here for him to track ball carriers. And we know he can find rush lane to daylight as a blitzer, tallying 27 sacks in his career. David has 69 total tackles and four pass breakups this season. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Tampa Bay? Even with Devin White in the fold, it’s David who remains the QB of the Bucs’ defense. Tampa Bay will continue to hang onto its own and bring back the veteran. — Tannenbaum

14. Jessie Bates III, S, Cincinnati Bengals

2022 salary: $12.9 million

Age entering 2023 season: 26

Why he could get paid: Bates’ 2021 postseason tape was some of the best I’ve seen. Two picks. Six passes broken up. Range to the ball, top-down ability and multidimensional traits on the back end. Bates is an easy fit as a versatile defender in both single-high and two-deep schemes, and he will be coveted in March. He has two interceptions, three bass breakups and 40 tackles this season. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Cincinnati? There’s no arguing that Bates, who is playing this season on the franchise tag, is a really good player, but Cincinnati is probably going to let him leave after the season. The two sides were unable to reach an extension agreement during this past offseason, so perhaps it’s time to move on. The Bengals can look to a solid safety draft class for a replacement. — Tannenbaum

15. James Bradberry, CB, Philadelphia Eagles

2022 salary: $2.3 million

Age entering 2023 season: 30

Why he could get paid: He has terrific press-man traits and the length to close throwing windows, which have helped him produce three interceptions and 11 passes defended this season. Bradberry, who can also fit as a zone defender due to his backfield vision, has the ball skills and the poise to win down the field, despite declining speed. He has allowed 13.8% fewer completions this season than expected while allowing just 2.6 yards after the catch per reception, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Philadelphia? What a season for Bradberry, who is definitely playing better as an Eagle than he did as a Giant last season. Philadelphia will probably try to keep him, pairing him again opposite Darius Slay. That has been a great combination. — Tannenbaum

16. Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

2022 salary: $3.8 million

Age entering 2023 season: 25

Why he could get paid: Jacobs is a volume ball carrier who is averaging 5.2 yards a carry and showing more explosiveness this season, but he has also boosted his free agent profile with an uptick in receiving usage. He has caught 31 of 38 targets, seeing the ball on swings, unders and screens. With three games of 140 or more rushing yards and the ability to handle 20 to 25 touches per week, Jacobs makes it into our top 20 despite the positional knock. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Las Vegas? Why not? Jacobs is a talented young player who can catch the ball and play all three downs, and he’s a big part of Josh McDaniels’ offense. Sure, Las Vegas declined his fifth-year option, but I think it finds a way to bring him back for a few more years. — Tannenbaum

17. Jordan Poyer, S, Buffalo Bills

2022 salary: $10.8 million

Age entering 2023 season: 32

Why he could get paid: It will be interesting to see how teams value a 32-year-old safety, but we still see the versatile impact of Poyer when he’s on the field. With four interceptions and six pass breakups in just five games this season, he is a disruptive and productive defender who can play from post, split field or rolled down alignments. He has dealt with ribs and elbow injuries this season, but he has played in 15-plus games in every season since 2017. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Buffalo? Poyer is an instinctive, tough and dependable player for the Bills, and with them right in the middle of a contention window, I think they re-sign him. Buffalo also has fellow safety Micah Hyde, who is out for the season with a neck injury, facing free agency in a year and set to make $10.8 million against the cap next season. — Tannenbaum

18. Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Indianapolis Colts

2022 salary: $13.0 million

Age entering 2023 season: 28

Why he could get paid: With 60.5 career sacks, Ngakoue will draw free agent interest as a sub-package edge rusher. He shows juice off the ball, the hand usage and body control to win on the edge and excellent short area burst. Ngakoue has recorded five sacks with the Colts this season after logging 10 during the 2021 season in Las Vegas. But keep an eye on his pass rush win rate, which has dipped from 20.2% in 2020 to 18.2% in 2021 to 14.4% this season. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Indianapolis? Ngakoue is on pace for his seventh straight season with at least eight sacks, and he hasn’t even hit age 30. I would keep him, and I think Indy will. — Tannenbaum

19. Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants

2022 salary: $8.4 million

Age entering 2023 season: 26

Why he could get paid: Jones is a lower-level starter with the running ability to create on designed carries and scramble attempts (4.9 yards per carry over his career). In a low-volume throwing offense under Brian Daboll this season, Jones has passed for 1,596 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions — but he hasn’t thrown for more than 220 yards in a single game. His fit with the Giants, who utilize boot and movement concepts, caters best to his traits at the position. His 60.3 Total QBR is in the top 10 and more than five points better than his career 54.2. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in New York? I think New York ends up re-signing him, despite not exercising their fifth-year option. And it should do it soon, as Jones is going to only get more expensive. While far from perfect, he’s young and ascending, and upward of 12 teams will need new quarterbacks next season. The ball-security issue that plagued him over his first three seasons (36 fumbles) is largely under control this year, as he has just three fumbles through nine games. — Tannenbaum

20. Jack Conklin, OT, Cleveland Browns

2022 salary: $11.0 million

Age entering 2023 season: 29

Why he could get paid: A powerful right tackle in the run game, Conklin utilizes technique to overcome limited foot speed and range. He has a 91.6% pass block win rate this season, putting him on pace for his fourth straight year above 90%, and his 76.4% run block win rate is among the top 25 tackles. Conklin is an ideal fit for a run-heavy system that utilizes play-action protection. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Cleveland? He’s no doubt a good player, and the Browns lean heavily on the run behind Nick Chubb. But Conklin lacks durability and hasn’t played a full season since 2019. Time for Cleveland to move on and let James Hudson III replace him. — Tannenbaum

21. Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots

2022 salary: $4.0 million

Age entering 2023 season: 26

Why he could get paid: Meyers posted a career-high 89 receptions in the 2021 season, using his 6-2 frame and nuanced route running to work the second level of the field. He has inside and outside flexibility and sure hands, but he hasn’t made much of an impact in the end zone. Through 54 career games, Meyers has just five touchdown catches. This season, he has caught 40 of 50 targets for 457 yards and three TDs and is looking to be the top WR on the free agent market. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in New England? I definitely like Meyers’ skill set, but he’s also a replaceable player. Those aren’t typically the types of players that Bill Belichick spends on in the offseason. I’d look for the Patriots to draft a receiver who could develop into a true No. 1 option. — Tannenbaum

22. Nate Davis, G, Tennessee Titans

2022 salary: $3.0 million

Age entering 2023 season: 26

Why he could get paid: An easy mover at 6-foot-3 and 316 pounds, Davis can reach block or climb in zone-run schemes, delivering a strike in contact. And he can set an anchor to take on power-rushers in pass protection. This season, Davis has a pass rush win rate of 91.9% and has allowed just four pressures. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Tennessee? This one is tough, because it will depend on what Davis ultimately is looking for in a new contract. He is young and productive on the interior of the Titans’ run-heavy offense, and I’m sure they would love to keep him. But Tennessee would likely let him walk before overpaying him, considering its roster has a few other areas of need. — Tannenbaum

23. Jamel Dean, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 salary: $2.8 million

Age entering 2023 season: 26

Why he could get paid: Dean has the length and top-end speed to disrupt throwing windows in zone coverage or match down the field against vertical concepts. He fits best as an outside one-third defender in a zone scheme. Dean had double-digit pass breakups in each of his first three seasons, and he is proving impactful again this season with a pair of interceptions, 42 tackles and six more breakups. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Tampa Bay? The Buccaneers just signed cornerback Carlton Davis III to a three-year, $45 million extension, but I think they will let Dean walk. He has good size (6-foot-1) and decent production, but Tampa Bay can probably find a cheaper replacement in the 2023 draft to pair with Davis. — Tannenbaum

24. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

2022 salary: $2.9 million

Age entering 2023 season: 26

Why he could get paid: Smith-Schuster is a physical player. He’s a slot target — with the ability to flex outside — who can work the dirty areas of field. And he’s more explosive than most believe, with a skill set to produce after the catch. Smith-Schuster has 46 catches for 615 yards and a pair of TD receptions this season and reached 900 receiving yards with seven or more touchdowns in all three seasons in which he played at least 15-plus games. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Kansas City? Smith-Schuster can be productive, but with consistency concerns, an injury history and limited ability to separate downfield, I don’t believe Kansas City will re-sign him. — Tannenbaum

25. Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins

2022 salary: $10.9 million

Age entering 2023 season: 27

Why he could get paid: The target volume is down for Gesicki in Mike McDaniel’s offense, as he is seeing 3.7 targets per game as opposed to 6.5 last season. But the 6-foot-6 tight end previously recorded three straight seasons of 50 or more receptions and has twice cracked 700 receiving yards. Gesicki is a long, flex target who can work the seams and the intermediate areas of the field, and he presents red zone scoring upside. — Bowen

Will he re-sign in Miami? I love the massive catch radius … but I can’t see Miami bringing Gesicki back. The Dolphins need to sign a tight end with more blocking ability. — Tannenbaum