The Daily Briefing Wednesday, November 17, 2021

With Thanksgiving approaching and COVID-19 cases rising again nationwide, the NFL on Tuesday night issued a memo to its teams detailing changes to its COVID-19 protocols, including mandatory testing for all players and staff the Monday and Wednesday after the holiday and mandatory mask-wearing for all players and staff while inside club facilities from Nov. 25 through Dec. 1.

The memo, a copy of which was obtained by ESPN, also establishes new requirements for surveillance cameras in team facilities for the purpose of enforcing COVID-19 protocols. The memo says the league has been “periodically reviewing footage from surveillance cameras in club facilities to ensure Protocol compliance. Discipline has been issued against individual players and clubs as warranted.”

Effective Nov. 29, all NFL teams will be required to have video cameras installed in their weight rooms and cafeterias, including weight rooms that are outdoors or in practice bubbles. Teams must retain video from those cameras for 30 days in case the league requests to view it for the purpose of finding out whether people are following mask requirements at team facilities.

The memo seems especially concerned about Thanksgiving. It says NFL teams “are strongly encouraged to offer drive-through testing” for friends and family of staff and players who will be staying or visiting with them for the holiday. “Such testing should be conducted before friends and family interact with players and staff.”

All Tier 1 and Tier 2 individuals, regardless of vaccination status, will be Mesa tested on Monday, Nov. 29, and Wednesday, Dec. 1. Under the current protocols, unvaccinated players must be tested every day and wait for their test results to come back negative before they are allowed to enter the building, while vaccinated players and staff are tested once a week and do not have to wait for their results before entering. For the week after Thanksgiving, vaccinated individuals will be tested on Monday and Wednesday.

The memo also offers reminders about how testing procedures are expected to be conducted and about the requirements for mask-wearing for all members of the team traveling party while on buses or airplanes.

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The candidacy of QB MATTHEW STAFFORD for MVP has been staggered the last few weeks and Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com sees it as wide open:

With so many teams in play for playoff berths and no specific franchise dominating, the chase for the 14 slots in the postseason field is wide open. So is the contest for the NFL’s MVP.

The reality is that the MVP likely will be the quarterback of the team that wins the top seed in the AFC or in the NFC. And if the Titans, who currently are No. 1 in the AFC, pull it off, that makes it more likely that the quarterback of the NFC’s top team — Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Kyler Murray — will be the MVP. Even though Ryan Tannehill should get serious consideration for doing it without Derrick Henry, it would be hard for him to overcome the likes of Prescott, Rodgers, Brady, and Murray.

The updated odds at PointsBet show Josh Allen as the favorite at +300, followed by Brady at +350, Prescott at +550, Matthew Stafford at +850, Rodgers at +900, Lamar Jackson at +1100, and Patrick Mahomes and Murray at +1400.

One last point. If the Patriots continue on their current trajectory, and if they emerge with the No. 1 seed, would rookie quarterback Mac Jones get votes? Probably not in comparison to the quarterback of the NFC’s eventual top seed, but at +20000 (200-1), it’s a tempting wager.

DETROIT

QB JARED GOFF toughed it out against the Steelers, but he may not be able to go Sunday in Cleveland.  And it is QB TIM BOYLE who is taking first-team reps, not DAVID BLAUGH.  Jeremy Reisman of PrideOfDetroit.com:

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff played through an oblique injury last week in Pittsburgh, and while he didn’t miss a snap, he was reportedly limited and dealing with some pain, though Goff downplayed that notion in his post-game press conference.

“Just kind of nagged me a little bit throughout the game,” Goff said. “I felt like I was fine in there and felt like it didn’t affect me through the game. But it will be a little sore tomorrow, but I’ll be fine.”

On Monday, Campbell acknowledged that Goff was “ a little sore” and that he was being evaluated “later this afternoon”, but felt confident none of the injuries the team suffered against the Steelers were “long-term.”

At his Wednesday press conference, coach Dan Campbell said that Goff was going to take the day off to see if his injury will improve with rest.

“We’re taking it day-to-day,” Campbell said. “He’s going to sit today, and then we’ll reassess tomorrow, see how he’s feeling.”

According to Campbell, the concern is both about managing Goff’s pain and the injury limiting his ability to use proper mechanics while throwing the ball.

“There’s pain management to it, and then some of it will just be, if we can get it to calm down a little bit, to where it’s more manageable, where he feels he can step into the throw and really put a lot of zing on it,” Campbell said. “So I think it’s two-fold. It is the pain, but it’s also, yes, calming it down to where the pain doesn’t affect the torque that you’re trying to put on a throw.”

While Goff takes the time to recover, it will be Tim Boyle taking the primary first-team reps at practice, according to Campbell. Boyle is still on injured reserve after suffering a broken finger in the preseason, but he returned to practice last week, and Wednesday will mark Day 8 of his 21-day evaluation period. Campbell said he saw promising developments from Boyle during those practices.

“He looked good,” Campbell said. “He worked his way back in there. It was scout team, is what he was doing, but he looked good. He looked comfortable, and he’s throwing it well. You can tell the finger looks like it’s good.”

The Lions have a tight schedule coming up. With Thanksgiving next week, the Lions will have two games in a four-day stretch. However, Campbell rebuffed at the idea of potentially managing snaps this week to prepare for next week against the Chicago Bears.

“It’s a thought, but I think more importantly, it’s like we have to use every resource that we have and do everything that we need to prepare to beat this team,” Campbell said. “So yes, but no, because I think if we worry too much about two games in 10 days, then we won’t have enough focus on this opponent right now. We have to find a way to be competitive and try to pull out a victory here at Cleveland. So to me, that’s the sole focus. We’ll worry about next week, next week.”

NEW YORK GIANTS

T ANDREW THOMAS may be back on Monday night when the Giants visit the Buccaneers.

The Giants should get their left tackle back soon.

New York announced on Wednesday that Andrew Thomas has been designated to return from injured reserve.

Thomas has been out since suffering foot/ankle injuries against the Rams in Week Six. He had previously missed Week Five with a foot injury.

Selected at No. 4 overall out of Georgia in 2020, Thomas has started 20 games for the Giants. Matt Peart has been filling in at left tackle with Thomas out.

The Giants play the Buccaneers on Monday night in Week 11.

KANSAS CITY

As the Chiefs prepare to play Dallas on Sunday on FOX, Bill Shea of The Athletic argues that the Chiefs are TV ratings gold if playing well:

If the Kansas City Chiefs have sorted out their issues, that’s a huge relief for the NFL and its broadcast partners.

NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” saw its best audience in three weeks thanks, at least in part, to the Chiefs continuing their return to form in their third SNF appearance this season. The broadcast averaged 16.74 million viewers for the Chiefs’ 41-14 primetime blowout over the divisional rival Las Vegas Raiders.

The Chiefs have been a popular TV draw in the Patrick Mahomes era for obvious reasons, and networks have wanted them on national broadcasts. This season, they struggled to a 3-4 record but have since won three straight to get back atop the AFC West at 6-4.

Two weeks ago, the Chiefs’ 13-7 win at Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay powered Fox’s late-afternoon window and averaged 24.37 million viewers, making it the most-watched Week 9 NFL broadcast since a Peyton Manning-Tom Brady matchup averaged 29 million in 2014, per Sports Media Watch.

Chiefs-Raiders likely lost a few viewers to some non-sports competition. The Season 4 premiere of scripted contemporary Western drama “Yellowstone” at 8 p.m. Sunday averaged 12.7 million viewers across cable’s Paramount Network and simulcasts on sibling networks CMT, Pop and TV Land, per Deadline and ViacomCBS. That was the strongest cable season premiere since 2017’s Season 8 opener of “The Walking Dead” on AMC.

Here’s NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” viewership so far this season:

Week 1: Bears-Rams, 17.64 million

Week 2: Chiefs-Ravens, 19.81 million

Week 3: Packers-49ers, 19.69 million

Week 4: Buccaneers-Patriots, 26.75 million

Week 5: Bills-Chiefs, 18.4 million

Week 6: Seahawks-Steelers, 17.2 million

Week 7: Colts-49ers, 16.9 million

Week 8: Cowboys-Vikings, 15.58 million

Week 9: Titans-Rams, 14.21 million

Week 10: Chiefs-Raiders, 16.74 million

This coming weekend’s SNF broadcast is the 5-3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers at the 5-4 L.A. Chargers.

Kansas City is poised for another potential big TV audience on Sunday when it hosts the Dallas Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox. The network’s other late game that day is Arizona at Seattle. The Chiefs also have a standalone national showcase game with a “Thursday Night Football” appearance at the L.A. Chargers on Dec. 16 that airs on Fox, NFL Network, and Amazon Prime Video.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

COVID rears its ugly head in Chargers camp.

The Steelers may be missing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick next Sunday night due to COVID-19 protocols and the Chargers may be without a pair of defensive linemen.

Defensive end Joey Bosa and defensive tackle Jerry Tillery have been placed on the COVID-19 reserve list. Vaccinated players who tested positive can return in under 10 days if they’re asymptomatic and receive two negative tests 24 hours apart. Unvaccinated players are out 10 days for testing positive and five days if they were close contacts to someone who did.

Bosa has 28 tackles, 5.5 sacks and three forced fumbles this season. Tillery has 30 tackles and 2.5 sacks while playing 81 percent of the team’s defensive snaps.

Linebacker Drue Tranquill is the only other Chargers player currently on the COVID-19 reserve list.

NEW YORK JETS

The return of QB JOE FLACCO.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Jets have a new starting quarterback: Joe Flacco.

Flacco is likely to start on Sunday against the Dolphins, according to Rich Cimini of ESPN.

The move comes as a surprise, but with Zach Wilson not yet healthy enough to play and Mike White coming off a rough game, the Jets hope Flacco can provide some veteran leadership.

The Jets traded for Flacco last month, and now they’re going to see whether he has anything left.

THIS AND THAT

AIKMAN RATINGS

The 33^rd Team looks at this week’s Aikman Efficiency Ratings – where they note the rise of the Patriots:

The Buffalo Bills returned to their spot atop Troy Aikman’s Efficiency Ratings on both offense and defense after a blowout win against the New York Jets this past weekend.

Coming off a relatively easy slate of recent games, the Bills may struggle to hold onto the rating over the next few weeks, as their strength of schedule toughens up. Across the next six games, Buffalo will face the Colts, Saints, Buccaneers, Panthers, and the rising Patriots twice.

At 6-4 New England is not only nipping on 6-3 Buffalo’s heels in the race for the AFC East crown, but for the top spot in the defensive Aikman Efficiency Ratings. The Patriots sit at No. 2 on defense and No. 12 on offense, and have a lighter strength of schedule the rest of the way, a fact that should worry Bills fans.

Other contenders sitting near the top of Aikman’s Efficiency ratings on both sides of the ball include the Dallas Cowboys (No. 2 on offense and No. 8 on defense), Arizona Cardinals (No. 3 on offense and No. 4 on defense), and Los Angeles Rams (No. 8 on offense and No. 10 on defense).

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While the Tennessee Titans have climbed into the top spot in Paul Domowitch’s Power Rankings this week, their placement in the Aikman’s ratings isn’t so flattering, as they sit at No. 13 on offense and No. 17 on defense.

The Patriots are up to 3^rd in the Aikman Combined, giving the AFC East two of the top three teams and two of the bottom five.

We also note the continuing rise of the Eagles – up to 5^th on Offense and 9^th in the Combined.

2021 Season Aikman Efficiency Ratings Through Week 10

—– Aikman —–                     ——     NFL     ——

Rank   W-L                            Comb  Off       Def                  Off       Def      Comb

1        6-3       Bills                  184.1   95.3     88.8                  5          1        6

2        8-2       Cardinals         167.4   92.7     74.7                  9          4        13

3        6-4       Patriots            164.1   87.9     76.2                15          6        21

4        7-2       Cowboys         164.0   93.1     70.9                  1        15        16

5        6-3       Ravens            162.0   91.1     70.9                  2        24        26

6        5-4       Saints              161.6   86.7     74.9                26        10        36

7        6-3       Buccaneers     161.1   92.3     68.8                  3          9        12

8        7-3       Rams              158.0   89.1     68.9                  6        11        17

9        4-6       Eagles             154.8   91.6     63.2                16        14        30

10        8-2       Titans              154.1   87.8     66.3                17        21        38

11        5-5       Colts                153.1   86.0     67.1                12        19        31

12        4-5       49ers               152.4   88.4     64.0                13          8        21

13        4-5       Vikings            152.3   89.3     63.0                  7        23        30

14        5-5       Broncos           152.0   78.8     73.2                19          7        26

15        5-4       Bengals           151.8   85.3     66.5                14        18        32

16        3-6       Seahawks       151.4   84.1     67.3                30        31        61

17        8-2       Packers           151.0   82.4     68.6                20          3        23

18        6-4       Chiefs              149.3   88.5     60.8                  4        26        30

19        5-5       Panthers          148.9   77.0     71.9                27          2        29

20        5-3-1    Steelers           148.3   79.3     69.0                24        12        36

21        5-4       Chargers         147.9   88.5     59.4                10        17        27

22        5-5       Browns            146.1   84.7     61.4                11          5        16

23        3-6       Giants              145.1   76.9     68.2                21        25        46

24        5-4       Raiders            142.8   82.1     60.7                  8        16        24

25        3-6       Bears               139.1   75.0     64.1                31        13        44

26        3-6       Washington     136.9   77.5     59.4                18        27        45

27        2-7       Jaguars           136.8   74.1     62.7                23        20        43

28        3-7       Dolphins          136.6   72.0     64.6                29        29        58

29        4-5       Falcons           135.4   79.0     56.4                25        22        47

30        0-8-1    Lions                129.9   74.7     55.2                28        28        56

31        1-8       Texans            128.1   69.1     59.0                32        30        62

32        2-7       Jets                 127.9   75.5     52.4                22        32        54

NFL Average: 149.8   83.6     66.2                                        

MASSIVE EXPANSION

As the NFL braces for a massive judgment for its exit from St. Louis, there are rumblings of placating the Gateway City with an expansion franchise.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com wonders where things could go from there:

If/when the NFL offers St. Louis an expansion team in an effort to resolve the Rams relocation litigation, the league wouldn’t move to an odd number of teams. The league would add a second team, if it adds a first one.

Which gives rise to a bigger question. How many more teams could the NFL eventually add?

Regardless of whether the league successfully expands the regular season to 18 games in order to increase inventory for betting purposes (it wants to do it; the question is when it can persuade the NFL Payers Association to do it), adding teams adds inventory, too. With more and more young, capable quarterbacks entering the NFL, it’s not crazy to think that the talent pool from college football can support 34, 36, 38, or even 40 teams.

Yes, 40 teams. If the expansion process from 32 begins, 40 becomes the natural ending point. That would result in eight divisions of five teams each. And it would make sense at that point to have 16 playoff teams.

There could even be a preliminary round that trims a field of 20 teams to 16, with six teams in each conference getting a bye and four others playing in a new wild-card round, locking in a field of eight teams per conference.

So where would the teams be headquartered? Obviously, St. Louis. London, which has two NFL-ready stadiums, would have two (like L.A.). And then it would be time to find five other domestic markets.

Making that task somewhat easier would be the potential emergence of a trend toward smaller stadiums, especially in cities that would never be in the Super Bowl mix. A venue in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 could be nearly as profitable as a larger stadium with an extra 20,000 upper-deck, general-admission seats. Smaller stadiums would be cheaper to build, and easier to fill in a smaller market.

As legal sports wagering spreads, the cash spent by the in-stadium crowd matters less than the revenue from, for example, live in-game wagering via real-time broadcasting of the games with no latency. (It’s coming.) At that point, what matters is how the game is televised, not where the game is played.

The conversations about possibly growing to 40 teams already are happening, at the highest levels of the league. It will take time to get there, but in time it will happen. The money will make it so.

Do Canadian cities count as “domestic” markets in Florio’s mind?

Would Jerry or Stephen Jones allow a team or teams to intrude on his North/Middle Texas hegemony?

Pat Pickham of StadiumTalk.com did some thinking about those kind of questions recently.  He comes up with a list of 30 cities, and somehow doesn’t have Columbus, Ohio or Raleigh, North Carolina on the list.

The NFL has not expanded since 2002, but that could change soon.

The league has boomed to a $15 billion annual business. Even so, the NFL has watched its popularity flatten out and, in some cases, shrink, as rising cable costs reduce television viewership, the risk of injury via concussion diminishes participation and social justice protests rub fans the wrong way.

How can the league capitalize on the relative prosperity of its product and continue to grow the sport of football? An NFL expansion.

If and when the NFL expands — to as many as 40 teams — here are the places it should look.

London

England’s capital is next in line for an NFL team. The league has played at least one game there since 2007, and as many as four in London in each season.

The city already has a de facto home team in the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have played a “home” game at Wembley Stadium in each of the past six seasons.

Aside from the NFL’s insistence to get in there, London is a logical choice, too. It is only five hours difference in terms of time zones, making it just two hours farther from the East Coast than playing in the Pacific time zone. It also has a robust population of crazy sports fans and already ample venues if it wanted to host a team.

It’s a no-brainer.

Frankfurt

This may seem like a surprise addition, given soccer’s robust popularity in Germany, but American football is popular in the country as well, thanks to the number of American military stationed in the country.

If London is going to join the NFL, one would think it would need a European rival, and Frankfurt is less than 500 miles from the English capital.

Plus, Frankfurt has a long-standing football culture, which dates back to the World League of American Football in the early 1990s. Add the fact Frankfurt is just about 100 miles from Cologne, making the Frankfurt/Cologne market roughly 2 million people.

Barcelona

Barcelona has an NFL pedigree, albeit in NFL Europe, and a flight from New York to the city in eastern Spain is only 45 minutes longer than a trip to London.

On top of that, Barcelona has more than 1.6 million people and a 99,000-seat stadium in its limits, all of which the NFL would drool over if football ever began to take off in Europe.

Berlin

If there were a division of European teams, Berlin would be a logical fourth team.

Berlin was both a founding and sustaining member of NFL Europe, has more than 3.5 million people and stadiums to accommodate football fans.

Toronto

Another no-brainer, though the Canadian Football League’s presence makes this one a little more tricky.

Toronto courted the Buffalo Bills during the 2000s decade, but that bid fell apart when the Bills were sold to the Pegulas in 2014. Still, the NFL is the only major North American sports league without a presence in Canada, or Toronto, more specifically.

Given the city’s size and interest in the NFL, it’s only a matter of time until it goes north of the border full-time.

Montreal

Montreal has Olympic Stadium, which hosted Major League Baseball’s Expos for decades, but also could support an NFL franchise in the interim.

The city has 1.7 million people, including those who already support the Canadian Football League’s Argonauts. Many of those fans still are still stinging from the Expos’ departure in 2005 and feel they deserve another major professional team.

MLB has flirted with a return to Montreal, and the NFL would be wise to sneak in before it does.

Edmonton

If the NFL is moving into Canada, it would be wise to absorb many of the CFL’s most successful programs, and the Edmonton Eskimos have been the class of the league since its infancy.

Edmonton has won the second-most Grey Cup championships in league history (14) behind the Toronto Argonauts (17).

It also has the league’s largest stadium capacity (56,400) and has a population of just about 1 million, many of whom are intense sports fans already.

Calgary

If the NFL is going to Edmonton, it also would have to expand to its southern provincial rival, too.

Calgary, like Edmonton, has a North American sports presence and has more than 1 million people.

The Flames have been in the NHL since 1972 and rank in the top 10 of attendance every year.

Vancouver

We’d advocate for Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatchewan or any of the other CFL markets, but Vancouver actually could attract free agents and also would have a fun little regional rivalry with the Seattle Seahawks.

Before anyone shoots down Vancouver because of the Grizzlies’ failings in the NBA, the city is flush with money and is the third-largest metropolitan area in Canada with close to 2.5 million people.

For people who love the physical nature of hockey, football might resonate more than basketball.

Oakland

We’ve reached the recently departed markets portion of the story. Oakland no longer has an NFL team, after the Raiders calculated their exit to Las Vegas, leaving Oakland out in the fog.

The Raiders left Oakland before, departing for greener pastures in Los Angeles in 1981, but this move felt different. While the 49ers still are in the region, Santa Clara is not quite San Francisco.

The NFL appears to be vacating the Bay Area. Given the wealth, football passion and pedigree in the region, that feels like sacrilege. The NFL needs to go back to Oakland.

San Diego

The NFL in San Diego has gone together like peanut butter and jelly, and even longtime NFL pundits can’t quite square up the fact the Chargers have moved up the road to Inglewood, California.

But San Diego belongs in the NFL. It’s one of the richest markets in the United States and the eighth-biggest city in the country.

One even could argue that California now is underrepresented in the league, with the Raiders’ exit from Oakland. So although San Diego’s stadium is old — as was the case with Cleveland — the city on the Pacific coast feels like a shoo-in to get an NFL team back at some point.

St. Louis

St. Louis is a sports-mad town, and they are still bitter about Stan Kroenke’s decision to move the Rams to Los Angeles, which is going on three years now.

The city has watched the NFL come and leave twice in the past 30 years, though the second departure could not be based on any lack of fan support.

It’s a proud sports city, one that should have an NFL team for good.

San Antonio

If California isn’t underrepresented in terms of NFL teams, Texas is, and San Antonio is an obvious choice of where to go next. The city is starving for another pro sports team after supporting only the NBA’s Spurs since they joined the league in 1976.

The NFL has flirted with San Antonio before. The Saints played home games at the Alamodome in 2005, when they were forced to temporarily relocate due to Hurricane Katrina.

Plus, few realize that San Antonio is the No. 8 market in the U.S., and would bring more than 2.5 million people, including Austin, which is only 75 miles up the road.

Austin

Some would argue that Austin already has a professional football team in the University of Texas.

But with more than 1 million people, and a zip code in football-mad state of Texas, the NFL could fit in the state capital.

The city is regularly ranked on the best places to live and cities of the future lists, and could present interesting new opportunities for the NFL to innovate.

El Paso

If San Antonio is an unheralded market, so is the West Texas town of El Paso, which has only a Triple-A baseball team to its name.

Thanks to “Friday Night Lights,” we know that West Texas loves high school football, but the region also has an appetite for the NFL. There’s not a pro sports team on the I-20 corridor between Glendale, Arizona, and Dallas, and El Paso quietly makes up the 22nd biggest market in the U.S.

In addition, Albuquerque, New Mexico, sits less than 300 miles away. That’s more than 1 million people between the two.

Omaha

Nebraska is football mad, too, and Omaha has seen an incredible population rise in the past decade, leaving the Nebraska city with Atlanta and Kansas City as population peers.

Omaha also sits in a veritable pro sports no-man’s land, essentially serving as the entrance to the northwestern wilderness.

Omaha has industry and sponsorship opportunities, which is key to get the NFL’s attention. Maybe the only thing standing in its way is a reasonable and moneymaking stadium.

Orlando

It feels like the NFL is flirting with an expansion to Orlando already, since the league started going there for its annual Pro Bowl.

Orlando checks a lot of boxes for the NFL, with a metro area of more than 2.3 million people, a pro-caliber stadium and its location in football-mad Florida.

Add in the NFL’s corporate tie with Disney, and the entertainment giant’s insane marketing ability, and you almost have to wonder why these two haven’t matched up yet.

Memphis

It’s surprising that Memphis, Tenn., doesn’t get consideration for the NFL, given how few teams there are in the American southeast, outside of Florida.

Memphis is far enough from Nashville to be its own market, but close enough to create an in-state rivalry. It is flashy and exciting enough to put on its own show, as it does every year while hosting the Liberty Bowl college game.

Plus, Memphis is the 25th biggest U.S. market, right behind Nashville and ahead of NFL cities like Las Vegas, Baltimore, Kansas City and Atlanta.

Consider also that a Memphis market would include parts of Arkansas and Mississippi, states that do not have pro sports, and there would be a definite appetite.

Birmingham

Birmingham seems to be fertile ground for pro football, but not quite ready for the NFL. That may change if the league decides to expand. Birmingham had a World League of American Football team for two years, then was chosen as a flagship market in the startup Alliance of American Football League.

Birmingham is a small city, but one with robust football passion — as support for both the University of Alabama and Auburn University prove. If the state rallied around an NFL team, Birmingham would be a pretty fun market, and one that could serve as a regional rival to both the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints.

Louisville

The Cincinnati Bengals pull many fans from Kentucky, but Louisville is 100 miles from Cincy and one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States.

It is worthy of a major professional team. Louisville has more than 600,000 people in the city, and more than 1.2 million in its market.

The city draws over 150,000 people to the city for the Kentucky Derby every May. A football team could draw plenty of interest every Sunday.

Portland, Oregon

Like San Antonio, Portland, Oregon, is an NBA town that has flirted with other sports for years. It’s reasonable to see why.

Portland has robust wealth, smart and caffeine-fueled sports fans, and it is a city trying to distinguish itself from Seattle.

The MLS has found a way to capitalize on all that, so it makes sense that the NFL could as well.

Oklahoma City

The Cowboys might not allow such a maneuver, but Oklahoma is a football-mad state, and Oklahoma City already has delivered as an admirable home market for the NBA’s Thunder.

Between OKC and Tulsa, which is only about 100 miles away, you have two of the top 50 U.S. markets and more than a million people.

Albuquerque

New Mexico is one of the fastest-growing states, yet does not have a professional sports team to its name just yet.

The NFL would be wise to be first in New Mexico, specifically in Albuquerque, which has more than 550,000 people and has hosted a college-football bowl game since 2006.

Toss in state capital Santa Fe, which is about 60 miles north, and you have a market of more than 600,000, or roughly the size of Baltimore.

Hartford

Hartford is stuck between New York and Boston, and already lost a pro sports franchise with the NHL’s Whalers.

But the Hartford-New Haven market is made up of roughly 2 million people and is a top-five U.S. market in terms of wealth.

Bristol, the headquarters of ESPN, is about 30 minutes away on I-84. It could make for some unique media opportunities.

Richmond

Virginia has long been Washington Football Team country, but their stranglehold could be coming to a close.

The greater Richmond region has more than 1.2 million football-mad fans, who Daniel Snyder has turned off during his tenure as Washington owner.

Although Richmond has balked at building a new football stadium, it remains to be seen if the Virginia capital would consider doing so for an expansion team that wasn’t owned by the antagonistic Snyder.

Sacramento

Don’t tell Sacramento it is the Bay Area, since the California capital is 80 miles geographically — and a substantial distance culturally — from Oakland, San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

Sacramento proper has about 500,000 people, but its metro area is the 27th-biggest place in the United States, pulling some 2.4 million people and growing.

Sacramento has supported the NBA’s Kings, even with the Golden State Warriors around, and would only have to fill its stadium for eight dates per season.

Salt Lake City

The Salt Lake/Provo region is among the richest in the United States, and they have been avid supporters of both BYU and Utah football.

The latter’s success resulted in a profile boost to the Pac-12 conference.

The NFL could capitalize on the city’s wealth and relative lack of sporting options.

Mexico City

Like London, the NFL seems to have a fascination with Mexico City, and for good reason. Its population is about 9 million people, making it bigger than New York’s five boroughs. It is easy enough for United States travel, since it sits in the Central time zone, and is one of the few untapped markets in North America.

Now the altitude — Mexico City is more than 7,000 feet above sea level — is a concern, but it also could stand as a home-field advantage the way Denver has become.

Expect Mexico City to be on the short list of places the NFL considers next time it expands.

Monterrey

Monterrey might make more sense than Mexico City, given its wealth and proximity to the United States. Monterrey is more than 500 miles closer to the U.S. border — it is closer to San Antonio and Houston than Mexico City — and is one of Mexico’s wealthiest metropolises.

If Mexico City were to fall through for some reason, Monterrey could stand to join. Or, like Europe, there could be a Mexican rivalry afoot.

Honolulu

It could be a travel nightmare, but the NFL has gone to Hawaii already. The Pro Bowl was played annually in the Hawaii capital every season but one from 1979 to 2012. And there are certainly worse places to live and play football.

The demographics are in place as well. The island of Oahu has more than 950,000 people, and the island has some incredible wealth.

Would Aloha Stadium need some sprucing up? Absolutely, but a lot of the NFL’s boxes already are checked.

Let’s check TV market size (Bold have an NFL team, Red are on the above list) with a rough guess of where the Canadian markets fall:

Rank   Designated Market Area    TV Homes

1          New York                          6,824,120

2          Los Angeles                     5,145,350

3          Chicago                             3,256,400

4          Philadelphia                      2,758,330

5          Dallas-Ft. Worth               2,563,320

6          SF-Oak-San Jose             2,364,740

(Toronto)

7          Washington, DC                2,351,930           

8          Houston                            2,330,180

9          Boston (Manchester)       2,302,680

10        Atlanta                               2,269,270

11        Phoenix (Prescott)           1,879,780

12        Tampa-St. Pete (Sara)      1,800,600           

13        Seattle-Tacoma                1,764,680

14        Detroit                                           1,737,170

15        Minneapolis-St. Paul                    1,697,370           

16        Miami-Ft. Lauderdale       1,642,220

17        Denver                                1,532,320

18        Orlando-Daytona-Melbrn    1,492,640

(Montreal)

19        Cleveland-Akron (Canton)  1,366,110        

20        Sacramnto-Stkton                1,317,500

(Vancouver)

21        Charlotte                             1,125,970          

22        Portland, OR                        1,112,500

23        St. Louis                               1,099,590

24        Pittsburgh                           1,079,900          

25        Indianapolis                        1,053,830          

26        Baltimore                            1,039,490

27        Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle) 1,025,320

28        Nashville                                 983,180         

29        San Diego                               981,650

30        Salt Lake City                          952,470

31        San Antonio                             916,970

32        Kansas City                            896,850         

33        Hartford & New Haven             885,890

34        Columbus, OH                         877,490

35        Milwaukee                               837,300          (Green Bay)

36        West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce  828,980         (Miami)

37        Cincinnati                                828,250        

38        Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-And       787,930

39        Las Vegas                                 743,220       

40        Austin                                         736,770

(Calgary)

(Edmonton)

41        Jacksonville                              690,400       

42        Norfolk                                       684,310

43        Oklahoma City                           666,690

44        Birmingham (Ann and Tusc)      666,170

45        Grand Rapids-Kalmzoo-B.Crk   653,100

46        Albuquerque-Santa Fe                648,350

47        Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York        641,660

48        Louisville                                    636,150

49        Greensboro-H.Point-W.Salem   635,580

50        New Orleans                             615,480       

51        Memphis                                    580,600

52        Buffalo                                       576,710      

53        Ft. Myers-Naples                        564,250

54        Richmond-Petersburg                555,630

55        Fresno-Visalia                            550,860

56        Providence-New Bedford           543,430

57        Mobile-Pensacola (Ft Walt)        518,740

58        Tulsa                                           509,560

59        Albany-Schenectady-Troy          500,400

60        Wilkes Barre-Scranton-Hztn        497,830

67        Honolulu

72         Omaha

Let’s look this list over and we will give you some thoughts tomorrow.

YOUNG COACHES TO WATCH

A list from Tom Pelissaro of NFL.com:

Who is this year’s Sean McVay — the young, up-and-coming coach who may get an NFL head job sooner than later?

This is the fifth year I’ve asked the question in this space. And in the previous four cycles, over half of all head-coaching hires (14 of 27) came from that year’s edition of this list, which focuses on a specific demographic: under age 45 and seeking their first NFL head-coaching opportunity. Last year alone, Brandon Staley (Chargers), Arthur Smith (Falcons), Dan Campbell (Lions), Robert Saleh (Jets) and Nick Sirianni (Eagles) all landed their first jobs while being under 45.

Maybe this is the year the pendulum swings back. There’s a strong group of candidates with previous head-coaching experience (Dennis Allen, Todd Bowles, Leslie Frazier, Vance Joseph, Josh McDaniels, Raheem Morris, Doug Pederson, Dan Quinn), as well as several top assistants who don’t meet the age criteria to appear here (Eric Bieniemy, Brian Daboll, Matt Eberflus and Don “Wink” Martindale, among others). It stands to reason that the pool of young first-timers has drained somewhat, given that it has produced three or more hires in each cycle since the Rams tabbed a 30-year-old McVay in January 2017 and shook up the NFL world with their immediate turnaround.

Then again, it’s a good bet some NFL teams will continue to look at the success of other names that appeared here in recent years — including Matt LaFleur with the Packers, Kevin Stefanski with the Browns, Zac Taylor with the Bengals and Mike Vrabel with the Titans — and focus on finding the next one, even if that coach might not be “ready” just yet.

Here’s a short list of young coaches who figure to draw interest in the coming cycle, based on dozens of recent conversations with NFL executives, coaches and others close to the search process. The candidates are listed in alphabetical order.

Candidates this year

Panthers OC Joe Brady, 32: Despite leading the 24th-ranked scoring offense with the Panthers last season in his first year as an NFL coordinator, Brady received five interviews (Texans, Chargers, Falcons, Jets, Eagles) for head-coaching jobs back in January. That speaks to how highly regarded Brady is as an offensive mind. He’s humble and engaging. But Brady is still young — five years ago, he was a graduate assistant at Penn State, before spending two years with the Saints and then having his breakout year with Joe Burrow at LSU in 2019 — and there have been some growing pains in Carolina. He’d need to surround himself with experienced people to help get his own program off the ground. How Brady adapts the Panthers’ still-struggling offense in the coming weeks after Cam Newton’s return will be fascinating, and potentially a plus on his résumé.

Iowa State coach Matt Campbell, 41: For several years, Campbell has been chased by NFL teams — including the Jets and the Lions, who made a strong pitch to lure him to Detroit back in January. Coming off a Fiesta Bowl win, Campbell opted to return to the Cyclones and signed a contract extension through 2028. But his reputation as a culture-builder with a good mind for offense has him squarely on the NFL radar, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the calls keep coming.

Titans OC Todd Downing, 41: Mike Vrabel has already groomed two head coaches — Matt LaFleur and Arthur Smith — in the OC spot by training them on how to set a culture with the Titans, and Downing could be next. He was on a head-coaching track (and on this list) as the Raiders’ offensive coordinator back in 2017, before he and the rest of Jack Del Rio’s staff were washed out of Oakland to make room for Jon Gruden. Now in his 17th season as an NFL assistant, Downing is known as a grinder with the right demeanor for the job, and he has shown he can be successful in different ways. Keeping the Titans’ offense on track without Derrick Henry, who was having an MVP-caliber season before suffering a foot injury in Week 8, will only help his cause.

Giants assistant HC/DC Patrick Graham, 42: The Jets requested an interview with Graham for their head-coaching job in January, but he declined and signed a contract extension with the Giants that made him one of the NFL’s highest-paid defensive coordinators. A one-time Yale defensive lineman, Graham is now in his 20th year coaching, with the past 13 being spent in the NFL (including a Super Bowl XLIX win with New England). He’s passionate, has high expectations and can be hard on players in a way that makes them love him more.

Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett, 41: Before the Falcons interviewed Hackett for their head-coaching job last year, Aaron Rodgers reached out to endorse Hackett for the job. That’s how popular Hackett is around Lambeau Field. Now in his 20th season in coaching and 13th in the NFL, Hackett is creative, thoughtful, extremely high-energy and a little quirky, in a way that helps him connect with and inspire this generation of players. Matt LaFleur calls the plays, but Hackett presents multiple times a week — his Friday “gold zone” meetings are legendary — and creates tip sheets for players on the game plan every day. If there’s one guy who will inject life into a program that’s been putting people to sleep, it’s Hackett.

Chiefs QB coach/passing game coordinator Mike Kafka, 34: A fourth-round pick by Andy Reid’s Eagles in 2010 who bounced around the NFL as a quarterback for parts of six seasons, Kafka possesses innate leadership traits and has earned a strong reputation as a QB tutor since reuniting with Reid in Kansas City as a quality control coach in 2017. He was promoted when the Bears hired then-Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy in 2018 (the same year Patrick Mahomes took over as QB1), and the plan has been for Kafka to move up again to OC when Eric Bieniemy gets his head-coaching shot after so many interviews in recent years. That still hasn’t happened, and Kafka now is on the head-coaching radar himself. His Chiefs contract is also set to expire after the season, and he could end up elsewhere as a play-calling OC in 2022 if a head job doesn’t materialize.

Buccaneers OC Byron Leftwich, 41: One of the surprises of the last hiring cycle was Leftwich not getting a single interview request, even as he called plays for Tom Brady and a Bucs offense that made a Super Bowl run. That figures to change this time around. The 10-year NFL quarterback was once a backup in Pittsburgh under then-offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, who hired Leftwich as QB coach in Arizona in 2017 and brought him along to Tampa two years later. An uninspiring stint as the interim OC for a doomed Cardinals team three years ago under Arians’ successor there, Steve Wilks, is further in the rearview now. And Leftwich continues to show he can manage a room with veterans such as Brady, who’s more than two years older than his OC and has made his love for Leftwich clear.

Patriots ILB coach Jerod Mayo, 35: Still in just his third year in coaching, Mayo already has been on the radar for a couple of years as a legitimate candidate. The Eagles interviewed him for their head-coaching job in January and came away impressed with his rare leadership traits. Before going into coaching, Mayo played eight seasons for Bill Belichick in New England, running the defense and relaying the signals for most of that time, including as a rookie to the veteran likes of Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi and Vince Wilfork. He now serves as the de facto coordinator of the NFL’s No. 2-ranked scoring defense. His pedigree and makeup are intriguing.

Cowboys OC Kellen Moore, 33: A six-year NFL backup QB who dove right into coaching as Dallas’ QB coach in 2018, Moore is highly regarded for his football IQ and creativity. He has already had one head-coaching interview, with the Eagles in January. Like many really young coaches, Moore has a lot to learn in terms of the whole picture of running a program. He would need a good plan for his staff and to surround himself with experienced people. But the tools are there.

Rams OC Kevin O’Connell, 36: A one-time Patriots third-round draft pick, O’Connell is now in his seventh year of as an NFL coach and third as an OC, including an interim play-calling stint in Washington in 2019 before he joined Sean McVay’s staff in L.A. That staff has been an incubator for head coaches who are currently having success, even though Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor, like O’Connell, watched McVay call the plays. In every other way, O’Connell functions as a true OC, from scripting to installing, while also working closely with QB Matthew Stafford. The Rams’ decision to block O’Connell from following Brandon Staley to the Chargers (among other teams) shows how valuable he is to them. And O’Connell’s expanded duties this year after some staff departures are helping prepare him for the next step.

Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley, 38: This is Riley’s fourth year on this list, and frankly, he might stay here until he ages off it. That’s how good Riley has it in Norman, where he coached consecutive Heisman Trophy winners (Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray) who went No. 1 overall in the NFL draft, and he might have another in the making with dynamic freshman Caleb Williams. Never say never, but it would take the perfect job to lure him away.

49ers DC DeMeco Ryans, 37: A two-time Pro Bowl linebacker who played 10 NFL seasons, Ryans is now in his fifth year as a 49ers assistant and first as Robert Saleh’s successor at DC. He’s another candidate whose leadership traits would have to win out over his relative inexperience for him to get a shot this soon. But don’t be surprised if he gets interviews.

Colts special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone, 39: A 10-year NFL special teams standout who won Super Bowl LI as a member of the Patriots’ staff, Ventrone started his coaching career as a special teams assistant in 2015 before getting the Colts’ coordinator job three years later. He learned under the likes of Bill Belichick, Frank Reich and longtime NFL special teams coach Brad Seely. Ventrone is detailed. He has presence. He’s experienced in game management and is known as a good talent evaluator who understands big-picture roster management, in a job that already requires him to work with the entire team. Ventrone coaches players hard, and they respect him for it. Head-coaching hires from special teams posts are rare, but Ventrone is one to watch.

Of the 12 names on the list, we count 4 (Graham, Mayo, Leftwich and Ryans) who would qualify as Minority Candidates.