Scott Kacsmar:

@ScottKacsmar

#NFL Prime time games where both teams scored 21+ PTs (Weeks 1-11 only)

2023 – 4 🤢

2022 – 7

2021 – 14

2020 – 14

2019 – 9

2018 – 13

2017 – 13

2016 – 11

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

QB JARED GOFF is that rare player who likes playing on Thursday – at least he is this week. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Last Sunday’s game against the Bears ended well for Jared Goff and the Lions, but they needed to make a stunning comeback to win because of how bad things had gone most of the day.

Goff threw three interceptions that helped the Bears build a 26-14 lead that the Lions were able to wipe out in the final four minutes. Goff said the comeback was a sign of a good team immediately after the game, but that doesn’t mean he wants the feelings to linger.

On Tuesday, Goff said the quick turnaround to playing on Thanksgiving is a welcome way to wash away the memories of how things started against Chicago.

“It does help to be able to play so quickly now and be able to hopefully go into the weekend with, obviously a win, but a good taste in your mouth for how you played as well,” Goff said, via Justin Rogers of the Detroit News. “So yeah, I’d love to come out this week and play well and get a W and be able to put that one behind me.”

Winning a game when your quarterback is off the mark is a hard thing to replicate, so Goff won’t be the only one hoping that he avoids another turkey on Thanksgiving.

GREEN BAY

Don’t expect RB AARON JONES on Thanksgiving in Detroit.  The Athletic:

Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones is highly unlikely to play Thursday against the Detroit Lions as he recovers from a left knee injury, coach Matt LaFleur said Tuesday. Here’s what you need to know:

LaFleur added that he doesn’t believe his top running back will land on injured reserve after suffering the injury late in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.

Jones himself wondered if he had torn his ACL based on the initial pain, but the Packers avoided the worst with the official diagnosis.

“Very relieved that it’s not anything long-term,” LaFleur said. “So we’ll just kind of work through that.”

What it means for Green Bay

Jones has been in and out of the lineup and on limited workloads for the majority of the season because of a hamstring injury suffered in the third quarter of the Week 1 win over the Chicago Bears, and now he exits again with a different injury not long after returning to full go.

Third-string running back Emanuel Wilson was carted off with a shoulder injury, too, minutes after Jones was carted off. He won’t play Thursday, either, so AJ Dillon will handle primary running back duties. The Packers also signed Patrick Taylor off the New England Patriots’ practice squad. Taylor was with the Packers from 2020 until last month and he’ll return to a familiar offense for No. 2 running back duties on a short week.

What happened to Jones?

Jones was tackled awkwardly at the end of a 2-yard run in the second quarter against the Chargers and remained on the ground. He limped off the field and was carted to the locker room with a towel over his head.

LaFleur said after the game he didn’t think the injury was long-term.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

This from OptaStats:

@OptaSTATS

Dak Prescott is 9-2 (.818) in his career against the Commanders. The last quarterback with a better record against Washington (min. 10 starts) was Johnny Unitas (11-2, .846).

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

WR MICHAEL THOMAS has headed to IR.  Mathew Paras of NoLa.com:

The New Orleans Saints placed wide receiver Michael Thomas on injured reserve Tuesday, meaning he’ll be sidelined for at least the next four games with a knee injury.

Thomas suffered a knee injury in New Orleans’ Nov. 12 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Coach Dennis Allen called the ailment “fairly significant” and later said a second opinion from doctors confirmed that Thomas was expected to miss “some time.”

By placing Thomas on injured reserve, the 30-year-old is guaranteed to miss this weekend’s showdown at Atlanta and three home games against the Detroit Lions (Dec. 3), Carolina Panthers (Dec. 10) and the New York Giants (Dec. 17). The first game Thomas would be technically eligible to return would be a Dec. 21 “Thursday Night Football” matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.

In addition to moving Thomas to injured reserve, the Saints signed cornerback Cameron Dantzler to the active roster and signed wide receiver Marquez Callaway to the practice squad.

Thomas’ latest injury is a blow to the three-time Pro Bowler who has struggled to stay healthy over the last few years. From 2020 to 2022, Thomas appeared in only 10 games — and sat out all of 2021 with an ankle injury. From 2016 to 2019, the Ohio State product had missed only one game in his career.

Last offseason, New Orleans and Thomas agreed on a reworked one-year, incentive-laden contract worth up to $10 million to keep the wide receiver with the team that drafted him in 2016. And before getting hurt against the Vikings, Thomas had managed to stay healthy as he played in all 10 of the Saints’ games. His production did not match the sort of output he had in the first four years of his career — when he racked up at least 1,000 yards each season — but he was still a reliable option. Thomas caught 39 passes for 448 yards and one touchdown prior to his injury.

Thomas’ injury also occurred days after he was arrested in Kenner on charges of simple battery and criminal mischief following a confrontation with a construction worker. The worker told police that Thomas shoved him and threw a brick at his truck, which officials said left “little if any damage.”

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

This from OptaStats:

@OptaSTATS

Brock Purdy of the @49ers has a passer rating of 157.3 over his last 2 starts.

That’s the highest passer rating by any NFL QB over a 2-start span since QB starts were first tracked in 1950.

Purdy says he’s doing it with an arm that is stronger than it used to be.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy successfully recovered from his offseason elbow surgery to play in the first game of the season, and has been effective piloting the offense in 2023.

Entering Week 12, he’s leading the league with a 70.2 percent completion rate and a 115.1 passer rating. He’s also throwing touchdowns at a higher clip than anyone else, at 6.5 percent of his passes and leads the league at 9.7 yards per attempt.

Purdy will be in action on Thursday night when the 49ers take on the Seahawks and said this week that his arm strength has gotten better since fully recovering from his offseason elbow surgery to repair a torn UCL.

“I do feel like just my pre and post routine of throwing has allowed my arm to get stronger, just in general,” Purdy said, via David Bonilla of 49erswebzone.com. “Obviously, after the surgery, [the goal was to] recover, but just my habits and stuff of what I’ve done in the NFL compared to college, it’s a night and day difference, and I feel like it has helped my arm get stronger.

“So, all of those components added in, I feel like my arm has gotten stronger.”

Purdy has thrown for 2,662 yards with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. We’ll see if that arm strength pays off with some deep shots against Seattle on Thursday night.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

Kyle Irving of The Sporting News on Kansas City’s amazing run of three straight games without a single point after halftime:

When you have a playmaker like Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, points are expected to come easy. And throughout his reign as the Chiefs’ signal-caller, they have.

It’s almost impossible to believe that Kansas City hasn’t scored a single point in its last three second halves, but this bizarre fact has become a recurring theme for the NFL’s defending champions.

The damning trend continued in the Chiefs’ loss to the Eagles on “Monday Night Football,” where Kansas City jumped out to a 17-7 lead at halftime but failed to get on the board after the break as Philadelphia completed a comeback in the fourth quarter.

It’s not like the scoring opportunities were blank in the second half — the Chiefs’ weapons just didn’t execute at the level needed to pick up a win in the Super Bowl rematch between two of the league’s most prolific contenders.

Star TE Travis Kelce had an uncharacteristic red zone fumble on the nine-yard line as Kansas City’s 12-play, 65-yard drive came up empty-handed early in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs’ offense didn’t gain much momentum thereafter, but it had one last golden opportunity on the final drive of the game trailing by four.

Mahomes let loose on a 50-yard bomb to a streaking Marquez Valdes-Scantling who had his man beat, but the speedy WR couldn’t haul in what could have been the game-winning touchdown reception.

As a result, Kansas City was handed its second loss in three games as the offense continued to stall in the second half.

Chiefs’ offense continues to struggle in second half

The Chiefs have been held scoreless in the second half of their last three games: a loss to the Eagles, a win over the Dolphins and a loss to the Broncos. That’s a franchise-record streak, and as NFL Research pointed out, it’s a stunning departure from the way the Chiefs have produced in recent seasons.

While goose eggs under the third and fourth quarters are only a three-game trend, Kansas City’s second-half offense didn’t look sharp in the two games prior, either.

Week    Opponent          2nd half points   Result

6          vs. Broncos       6          W, 19-8

7          vs. Chargers      7          W, 31-17

8          at Broncos        0          L, 24-9

9          vs. Dolphins      0          W, 21-14

10         BYE                 

11         vs. Eagles         0          L, 21-17

Just 13 points in the Chiefs’ last five second halves should spell worse than a 3-2 record, but their defense has been surprisingly stout and the offense has had no trouble getting going early.

The Chiefs average 17.2 first-half points per game, the second-most in the NFL, according to TeamRankings. Only the Cowboys (19.4) have been better. That shouldn’t come as a surprise for a unit that has Mahomes at the helm and averages the eighth-most yards per game.

However, Kansas City’s offense has crashed and burned in the second half of games. It is averaging a league-worst 5.3 second-half points per game this season — somehow worse than lowly offenses like the Patriots and Jets.

The Chiefs had done a good job of jumping out and maintaining big leads early on in the season, but we’re starting to see it cost them when their gears grind to a halt in the second half. The Broncos picked up a wire-to-wire victory without much resistance. The Dolphins nearly completed a 21-point comeback in Germany and the Eagles did complete a second-half comeback on Monday.

Playing with the lead can be a curse, because there have certainly been moments where the Chiefs are trying just as hard to kill the clock as they are trying to score in the second half. They rank sixth in the NFL in second-half time of possession share percentage, but they aren’t turning those possessions into points of any kind.

It doesn’t help that Mahomes is working with a lacking receiving core that leads the league in drops, but even guys like Kelce haven’t answered the call when the star QB is trying to make some magic happen late in games.

Kansas City is still one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL, but their second-half scoring droughts are certainly an issue to monitor as it looks to pursue its third Super Bowl trophy in five seasons.

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

The Browns will not be heading back to Cleveland after Sunday’s game in Denver.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The 7-3 Browns have a rare chance to become serious Super Bowl contenders in 2023. They also have a rare chance to deepen the bond among the players and coaches in late November and early December.

With road games this weekend in Denver and the following weekend in L.A. against the Rams, the Browns won’t be coming home between the two contests. That will give them an opportunity to draw even closer and lock arms even tighter for the stretch run and beyond.

“It’s almost like the Greenbrier all over again,” defensive end Myles Garrett told PFT by phone after Sunday’s win over the Steelers, referring to their training-camp time in West Virginia. “Having everyone around each other and focus on the things that matter during the season and that’s finding a way to improve and find a way to win.”

The trip will be the most productive if 7-3 becomes 9-3. But even if they lose one of the next two, that experience together could be perfect preparation for a chance to capture the division title, possibly snag the No. 1 seed, and then climb the playoff tree all the way to the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl appearance.

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS

Stephen Holder of ESPN.com provides some clarity on the decision to waive LB SHAQUILLE LEONARD, once a face of the franchise:

– One day after being told he was being benched, linebacker Shaquille Leonard received the surprising news that he was being waived by the Indianapolis Colts on Tuesday.

Leonard, a sixth-year pro and three-time first-team All-Pro selection, said the message hit him hard.

“It was shocking,” Leonard said Tuesday evening as he and teammates distributed 200 Thanksgiving turkeys and sides at a church on the west side of Indianapolis. “I asked for a November meeting. I guess I got a November meeting. I guess you’ve got to be careful what you ask for.”

Leonard and his coaches had been in constant communication lately about his diminished role in the Colts’ defense. It had been a much discussed subject after he had two back surgeries last season to address nerve issues that were impacting his lower body and limiting his explosiveness.

Leonard’s playing time had been inconsistent during his recovery, but coaches told him they would continue to revisit the issue as the season progressed. But after an underwhelming performance by Leonard in the Colts’ last game two weeks ago, his play became even more scrutinized. Instead of expanding Leonard’s play time, Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley told him he was going to be inactive Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That status was likely to stick for the rest of the season, according to a source.

Asked what changed between Monday and Tuesday, Leonard said he was unsure, though he left open the possibility that his pushback over his limited role had an impact on the team’s decision. He had spoken with reporters on multiple occasions in recent weeks about his displeasure with his playing time. Leonard had been sidelined on third downs and was splitting reps on some early downs, too.

“You’re already not playing on third [down], you’re taking the reps on second down, too?” he asked rhetorically two weeks ago.

On Tuesday, Leonard said, “I always say that they say [complaints] are OK until you step on toes. I said that two weeks ago and I still stand by it. I don’t know if that played a part. Do I think it plays somewhat of a part in it? Yes, because they could see it as a distraction. But I tried to be respectful with my answer.”

The team had long been mulling how to proceed with Leonard. Last week, when asked about the next steps, one team source told ESPN: “We will do what is best for the team at the end of the day.”

In reality, the idea of Leonard standing on the sideline, inactive, for the rest of the season was difficult to envision. Whether the Colts questioned Leonard’s ability to handle the demotion remains unclear, but even Leonard admits his strong personality could be hard to handle.

“Everybody doesn’t understand my drive,” he said. “Everybody doesn’t understand how competitive I am. … It’s cool. There’s no hard feelings.”

Fifth-year player E.J. Speed, who had been splitting reps with Leonard, is expected to take over the starting role at weakside linebacker alongside middle linebacker Zaire Franklin.

Things had been trending this way for a while. Bradley has said publicly the Colts were looking for more splash plays from Leonard. They also had been seeking ways to get Speed on the field more. Then, in the absence of an injured Franklin in a recent game against Carolina, Leonard did not see an increase in playing time. The Colts surprisingly turned to backup Segun Olubi to fill the role.

Leonard, a 2018 second-round pick and Defensive Rookie of the Year, will be remembered for the clutch playmaking that became his calling card before his injuries. He was a first-team All-Pro in 2018, 2020 and 2021.

– – –

Meanwhile, owner Jim Irsay can’t get over his 2014 arrest, saying he was the victim of his privilege.  ESPN.com:

Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay said his 2014 arrest for operating a vehicle while intoxicated was a result of police prejudice against him for being “a rich, white billionaire.”

Irsay discussed the circumstances of his arrest as part of a wide-ranging interview with HBO Sports. The longtime Colts owner pleaded guilty in September 2014 to one misdemeanor count of operating a vehicle while intoxicated.

When asked why he pleaded guilty, Irsay responded: “Just to get it over with.”

“I am prejudiced against because I’m a rich, white billionaire,” Irsay said during the interview, which aired Tuesday night. “If I’m just the average guy down the block, they’re not pulling me in, of course not.”

Irsay was asked how he thought his assertion would be received.

“I don’t care what it sounds like,” Irsay said. “It’s the truth. … I could give a damn what people think how anything sounds or sounds like. The truth is the truth and I know the truth.”

Police in the Indianapolis suburb of Carmel pulled Irsay over in March 2014 after he was spotted driving slowly, stopping in the roadway and failing to use a turn signal. Officers said he had trouble reciting the alphabet and failed other field sobriety tests.

Irsay, when asked whether the arrest was a “low point” for him, told HBO Sports that he failed the field sobriety tests because he was just coming off hip surgery.

“The arrest was wrong,” he said. “I had just had hip surgery, and had been in the car for 45 minutes. And what — they asked me to walk the line? Are you kidding me? I can barely walk at all.”

Irsay was asked by HBO Sports to clarify his assertion that he failed the sobriety tests because of the hip surgery, not because he was under the influence.

“Yes, I mean I’m not saying that — it’s a fact,” he responded.

Police discovered various prescription drugs in Irsay’s vehicle along with more than $29,000 in cash. A toxicology report showed Irsay had the painkillers oxycodone and hydrocodone as well as alprazolam, which is used to treat anxiety, in his system at the time of his arrest.

The Carmel Police Department said in a statement Tuesday to The Indianapolis Star that it was “very sorry to hear” Irsay’s accusation of police prejudice against him.

“We have a very professional agency consisting of officers that strive to protect our community with integrity and professionalism,” Carmel Police Lt. D.J. Schoeff wrote in an email to The Indianapolis Star.

Irsay, 64, has publicly discussed his battle with addiction on numerous occasions. He told HBO Sports that “addiction and alcoholism is a fatal disease.”

Actually, as the DB recalls it and as we look at the evidence – Irsay seemed pretty lucky to get off with the misdemeanor and without a further investigation of his activities.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

The Dolphins are projecting uncertainty as to whether or not RB De’VON ACHANE will play in the big Black Friday game.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Dolphins running back De’Von Achane returned from a four-week stint on injured reserve on Sunday and promptly re-injured his knee after just one carry. If Achane is going to return for Friday’s game against the Jets, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel wants to be sure Achane can finish the game.

“He’s going to want to play,” McDaniel said. “I need to still make sure where his confidence level is at with something that I know is uncharted for him. You want him to be his best self when he’s playing, so there will be a little posturing on his part, I assume, and I’ll just be deciphering between his level of confidence and my confidence that he can play four quarters.”

When healthy, Achane has been incredible this season, carrying 39 times for 461 yards and five touchdowns, a whopping average of 11.8 yards per carry. But he has struggled to stay healthy, which is why he has just 39 carries.

The Dolphins would love to give Achane a big workload, but that may not happen until he’s fully recovered from the injury.

THIS AND THAT

BROADCAST NEWS

Is this a sampling of what we will hear from Tom Brady next year?

Less than a year removed from his legendary playing career, Tom Brady evidently is not impressed with the current level of play in the NFL.

“I think there’s a lot of mediocrity in today’s NFL. I don’t see the excellence that I saw in the past,” Brady said during an appearance Monday on “The Stephen A. Smith Show.”

Brady, who retired earlier this year after a record-setting 23-year career, cited numerous reasons for his evaluation of the game, including coaching and player development.

“I think the coaching isn’t as good as it was,” Brady said. “I don’t think the development of young players is as good as it was. I don’t think the schemes are as good as they were.

“The rules have allowed a lot of bad habits to get into the actual performance of the game. So I just think the product in my opinion is less than what it’s been.”

Scoring in the NFL has declined for the fourth consecutive season in 2023; teams are combining to score just 43.3 points per game, down from 43.8 last season and 45.9 in 2021. The league is on pace for its lowest-scoring season on average since 2009, when teams combined for 42.9 points per game.

One likely cause of the scoring decline is a high number of injuries to quarterbacks. Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson and Anthony Richardson headline the growing list of franchise quarterbacks who have suffered season-ending injuries, while other stars at the position — including Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray — have missed significant time.

Brady acknowledged the physicality of the sport but bemoaned recent rule changes designed to protect players from injury.

“I look at a lot of players like Ray Lewis and Rodney Harrison and Ronnie Lott and guys that impacted the game in a certain way — and every hit they would have made would have been a penalty [today],” Brady said. “You hear coaches complaining about their own player being tackled and not necessarily — why don’t they talk to their player about how to protect himself? … We used to work on the fundamentals of those things all the time. Now they’re trying to be regulated all the time.

“Offensive players need to protect themselves. It’s not up to a defensive player to protect an offensive player. A defensive player needs to protect himself. … I think a lot of the way that the rules have come into play have allowed this — you can essentially play carefree and then if anyone hits you hard, there’s a penalty.”

Brady, 46, is the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards and touchdown passes. The seven-time Super Bowl champion and three-time league MVP said he doesn’t think “the athletes have changed much” since he started his NFL career in 2000, pointing instead to development at the college level.

“I actually think college players were better prepared when I came out than they are now,” he said. “Just because so many coaches are changing programs, and I would say there’s not even a lot of college programs anymore. There’s a lot of college teams, but not programs that are developing players.

“So as they get delivered to the NFL, they may be athletic, but they don’t have much of the skills developed to be a professional. When I played at Michigan, I essentially played at a college program that was very similar to a pro environment. When I see these different players come in, they’re not quite as prepared as they were, and I think the game has shown that over the last 12 to 13 years. I think things have slipped a little bit.”

2024 DRAFT

Three ESPN draft afficianados discuss the top 10 picks in the draft:

The 2024 NFL draft order is starting to take shape as we hit Thanksgiving. There will be seven more weeks before we know exactly what the top 10 will look like and how the teams will stack up, but we at least have a decent idea right now of which teams will be in the mix. After all, six still have three or fewer wins through Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season and might have an eye to the future. Luckily, this draft class is loaded with upper-tier talent, including a few quarterbacks who should come off the board very, very quickly.

With all that in mind, we decided to take a quick spin through the top 10. NFL draft analysts Matt Miller, Jordan Reid and Field Yates debated which prospects make sense for each team projected to have an early selection. Which teams need quarterbacks? Who could get an elite receiver? And which franchises will look closely at the defensive prospects? Reid, Miller and Yates discussed each franchise’s options and needs before arriving at a consensus pick in each spot. Finally, they wrapped it all up by each naming a team to watch from the list of franchises outside the top 10.

Note: For the draft order, we used the ESPN Football Power Index’s projections (FPI) through Week 10 — not Week 11. That puts the Bears (via the Panthers) on the clock to get us started.

1. Chicago Bears (via 1-9 CAR)

Yates: We might look back at Chicago’s decision to trade down with Carolina in March as one of the most impactful of recent years. Not only did the Bears bring in extra picks and a WR1 in DJ Moore, they also landed this projected No. 1 pick in 2024 — a massive coup. And while quarterback Justin Fields has had moments of promise, our FPI projects the Bears’ own pick to be No. 5 overall. If that happens, it’s unlikely Fields showed dramatic improvement over the rest of the season, meaning a reset at quarterback is probably in play.

Miller: Yup, if the Bears don’t turn things around, Fields is likely gone, and the front office will look to reset the quarterback clock. Let’s remember that general manager Ryan Poles didn’t draft Fields and must make a decision after this season on the quarterback’s fifth-year option. To date, Fields hasn’t shown enough to be paid like a top-tier quarterback, and the opportunity to draft a younger player with more promise (who also happens to be much cheaper) is super intriguing.

And we haven’t even gotten to USC’s Caleb Williams yet, widely seen not only as the No. 1 prospect in this class and also a generational prospect. He’s a franchise-changer. Look at what C.J. Stroud has done in his first season in Houston; Williams can be that and more for the Bears.

Reid: If Fields does play well over the Bears’ final six games — he looked good on Sunday against the Lions — but the team continues to lose, it makes for an even more interesting decision for Poles. He has to weigh all of his options. But how can you pass up Williams?

Yes, he still has to clean up some bad habits in the pocket, but his improvisational skill and arm talent are outstanding. And his mobility and playmaking could mask a lot of the Bears’ deficiencies elsewhere. Williams ranks second in the nation in passing (3,633 yards) and has thrown 30 touchdown passes — including an FBS-leading 11 from outside the pocket.

Yates: The Bears should be able to recoup a little bit of draft capital for Fields, too. While his inconsistency as a thrower is part of why they are in this spot, his mobility and flashes will have some allure to other teams, whether it be as a starter or backup. He would cost a team about $3.2 million for 2024, a totally reasonable cost.

Miller: And there would be a market for him. Just look at how many teams outside the top two picks have a need at the position and won’t be able to fill it with a premium player. I love the Falcons for him if they’re not in play to draft one of the top QBs. Fields is from Georgia and originally played for the in-state Bulldogs. And if Arthur Smith is back as coach, Fields fits the RPO-heavy offense Smith was running as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee and earlier last season with Marcus Mariota. Tampa Bay, Las Vegas, Minnesota and maybe even Pittsburgh could theoretically get involved if Fields were to become available.

Reid: I think we’re all in agreement here. Williams is special and has the talent to eventually change the trajectory of a franchise. And while Chicago moved back this past spring when it had the No. 1 pick, there just isn’t a scenario where any trade offer would make me trade back this time.

Our pick for the Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

2. New York Giants (3-8)

Reid: I’d argue the Giants also have to go quarterback if they are picking here. I know they just paid Daniel Jones in March, but being able to land one of the draft’s top two passers changes things. I love the mobility and accuracy of North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and we see him manipulate coverages and attack all three levels of the field every Saturday. His pocket patience continues to improve, too. Maye processes quickly and understands where the weak points are in defenses. I think he could thrive with coach Brian Daboll. The Giants’ offensive line is still a work in progress, but Maye is poised under center and could be a star in the NFL.

Miller: There’s a very good chance Maye would have been my QB1 for 2023 based on his arm strength, mobility and ball placement. He’s Justin Herbert to me. Maye has thrown for 3,354 yards with 22 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions this season, and he has rushed for another eight scores.

Yates: Yeah, there’s so much to like about his game. He’s no consolation prize for the team that misses out on Williams; he’s an excellent prospect. Now, drafting Maye of course means New York would be moving on from Jones, a task much easier said than done. Jones is due $35.5 million fully guaranteed in 2024, a massive price tag for a player coming off a poor season and a torn ACL. But when you have the opportunity to reset the quarterback clock with a franchise-altering talent, you swallow the sunk costs and move on.

Miller: Exactly. The best thing any franchise can do when it makes a mistake — especially at quarterback — is admit it early and move on before it’s too late. That’s where the Giants are with Jones. I know they just signed him to a four-year deal, but his injury history and uneven play (Jones is 27th in QBR at 39.2) suggest it’s already time for a change.

Reid: If they do move on from Jones, I don’t see any way they could keep him around as a backup. GM Joe Schoen just has to get what he can for Jones, even if it takes a Brock Osweiler-type trade where New York has to attach a conditional pick.

Yates: The best bet for finding a trade partner might be letting the QB carousel spin through free agency and surveying what’s left. Any teams out there that struck out on a veteran quarterback but aren’t in position to draft someone impactful? The Giants could then agree to eat a chunk of Jones’ base salary to make a trade more palatable for an acquiring team. And Jones has no guaranteed money beyond 2024, so any new team would have zero negative cap ramifications if it does not work out.

Miller: OK, I think we all like Maye here, even if we aren’t the ones making the tough decisions. One more thought before we move on: Some might wonder whether New York would try to move down to pick up assets and just keep Jones. Look, I am always going to advocate for trading back, but in this case, the Giants have to stay in the top three. I see three blue-chip players at positions of need for the Giants — Williams, Maye and Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. New York has to land one of them.

Our pick for the Giants: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

3. Arizona Cardinals (2-9)

Yates: I’d like the Cardinals to call the fastest player on their roster (maybe Marquise Brown if he gets re-signed) and ask him to sprint the card in for Harrison in April. Beyond filling a need, we’re talking about a rare prospect. Harrison has a 6-foot-4 frame, runs buttery smooth routes and displays stick ’em hands. There are no holes in his game, and no player has a clearer chance of developing into a Pro Bowler in this class than him.

Reid: I can’t say enough positive things about Harrison. He’s a big receiver … but has the movement skills of a small wideout. His ability to sink his hips and redirect allows him to run every branch in the route tree, and he can make catches outside his frame with ease. And despite mediocre quarterback play and the fact that everyone in the stadium knows he’s getting the ball, Harrison just keeps producing. He has 1,093 yards, and his 13 TD catches are tied for second in the country. Simply put, Harrison is special and one of the best receiver prospects that we have seen this century. I would be shocked if he isn’t the first non-QB selected.

Miller: Harrison is definitely the pick. We’re talking about an all-world receiver prospect with the traits to be great at the next level. I see a smoother version of A.J. Green.

Reid: The only thing that might throw a wrench in this is if Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders were to declare for the draft. We know Williams and Maye are the top two passers, but QB3 gets interesting. Sanders plays behind one of college football’s worst offensive lines but shows the poise and accuracy to get the ball out on time and on target. I don’t know if he’ll be in the class — he might opt to return to play another season with his dad at Colorado — but it definitely is something to consider.

Yates: Shouldn’t a quarterback be discussed on principle? Kyler Murray wasn’t picked by Arizona’s current front office, and the Cards would be looking at an early pick here. Sure. But we’re also not yet sold on a quarterback meriting the No. 3 overall pick, especially if Sanders returns to school. Plus, Murray has shown signs of being able to lead a winning team. Remember the Cardinals starting 7-0 in 2021?

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Miller: What it all boils down to for me is the expense of trading Murray to take QB3 versus keeping Murray and drafting the best wide receiver prospect most of us have ever seen. Trading Murray would cost the Cardinals $46.2 million against the cap in 2024. We have seen teams take massive cap hits to move on from quarterbacks in the past, but Murray’s play is still promising enough that Arizona can avoid that cap charge. The Cards don’t need to eat that money just to bring in Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy or LSU’s Jayden Daniels. Instead, they can build around Murray with an elite receiver — something he had for a brief time with DeAndre Hopkins, which happens to be when Murray looked his best.

Our pick for the Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

4. New England Patriots (2-8)

Miller: The Patriots have the worst roster in the NFL, in my opinion. Every position is a position of need after years of poor drafting and poor roster management. And no matter who is running the show here in the spring, the Patriots must attack the class with a “best player available” mentality to bring up the overall talent on the team. All options should be on the table.

Yates: Quarterback is of course going to be right in the mix after two years of regression from Mac Jones after a promising 2021 rookie season. But we can only work with what we’ve seen so far, and to reiterate, there is no obvious QB3 candidate who merits a top-five selection at the moment besides Sanders, who doesn’t feel likely to declare. Maybe that changes over the pre-draft process, but quarterback isn’t the play right now at No. 4.

Miller: I like to think about how teams can stack picks. No, the Patriots shouldn’t reach on a quarterback here. But what if they go best player available at No. 4 and then capitalize on the second tier of QBs with either a trade into late Round 1 or the team’s early Round 2 selection? I’d rather have the best left tackle or pass-rusher in the class plus Oregon’s Bo Nix than reach for a quarterback here and settle for what might be the No. 7 tackle in Round 2.

Reid: One thing we know about Bill Belichick is he loves 12 personnel and getting two tight ends on the field. So we need to at least talk about Georgia’s Brock Bowers, a special tight end who adds an explosive dimension to the passing game. He can play next to a tackle, in the slot or lined up out wide. His after-the-catch ability is one of his best attributes, as 428 of his 661 receiving yards this season have come after the ball is in his possession.

The Pats have struggled to draft reliable offensive playmakers in the early rounds, and a strong argument could be made Rob Gronkowski is their most recent success (2010). But the positional value is also fair to question for New England, and as we’ve seen with Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts, it takes a little longer for tight ends to become accustomed to the NFL.

Miller: Yeah, I love Bowers and have him ranked No. 4 overall. But I have someone ranked higher still out there, and he fills a bigger need for New England. The best remaining prospect on my board is Penn State’s Olumuyiwa Fashanu. The 20-year-old junior left tackle has outstanding tape. He’s a devastating run blocker and has allowed one sack and 2.2% pressure on 323 pass blocks this season. The Patriots’ offensive line has been a mess for a while, and Fashanu would immediately fix the left side.

Yates: Plenty has gone wrong this season for the Patriots, but it has been jarring to see how helpless some plays have looked simply because the defense swarms the quarterback the moment the ball is snapped. They must get younger and better at offensive tackle, period. And while the quarterback question must still be answered, Fashanu would be a huge step toward fixing the offensive line. He’s dropping to No. 4 in this exercise, but in a different draft class, it’s easy to imagine him being one of the top two picks.

Reid: I’m in agreement with you guys. Fashanu has franchise left tackle written all over him. His balance and awareness as a pass protector are easily the best in this class. He has also shown more physicality in the run game, and I thought his performance against Michigan was exceptional. With Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu scheduled to become free agents, there’s a hole. Fashanu is a no-brainer.

Our pick for the Patriots: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

5. Chicago Bears (3-8)

Yates: We already got the Bears a quarterback in Williams, which means they have the luxury of flexibility here. If they’re enamored with someone, they can submit the card. But this also feels like a potential trade-down spot. The next best player in my eyes is Joe Alt, the hulking Notre Dame left tackle, but Chicago has a promising young player in Braxton Jones already entrenched at that position. And since Poles already has shown the openness to move down, I wouldn’t be shocked if Chicago did it again to quickly fetch back more capital.

Reid: I agree, Field. Poles likes to accumulate picks and move around at the top of the draft, and this scenario would be no different than in the past. If the Bears stay home, though, it likely would be Alt vs. Alabama pass-rusher Dallas Turner, right? And with the solid play of Jones and the use of a top-10 pick on Darnell Wright in April, the Bears would probably stay away from offensive tackle, meaning they could use this pick to continue building up the defense. The Montez Sweat deadline deal helps, but this team still needs pass-rushers. Chicago ranks last in the NFL again with 15 sacks.

Miller: What about my guy Keon Coleman, the Florida State receiver? He’s 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, explosive after the catch and so physical at the catch point that he will be a red zone safety valve wherever he ends up. The Bears have Moore and tight end Cole Kmet, along with a backfield full of potential starters, but Coleman would round out this group and give Williams a true trio of pass-catchers to grow around.

Reid: I don’t know … Turner lined up on the other side from Sweat is very, very enticing. He is still raw, but he generates pressure (15.5% pressure rate, seventh best in the FBS) and produces (seven sacks). He fits the Bears’ timeline, too, as he could grow with a relatively young defense and turn into a key part of the team’s future.

Yates: I’m intrigued by the Coleman idea, but Jordan has a point here. When the Bears made the move for Sweat, part of the calculus was that it would be slim pickings at the top of Round 2 (where the traded pick was) for pass-rushers. Juxtapose that to the wide receivers in this class, and it makes all the sense in the world to take the clearest potential difference-maker at edge rusher in Turner now. A legitimate receiver could still be there when Chicago picks next because of that position’s depth.

Miller: OK, this does make sense. I’d rather Chicago walk away with my top-ranked edge-rusher (position of need) and grab a receiver in Round 3 than get Coleman here and be without a high-end pass-rusher. I’m won over on Turner.

Reid: Wow, this is the easiest draft room to sway. I thought I’d get more pushback on that.

Our pick for the Bears: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

6. Washington Commanders (4-7)

Miller: New team owner Josh Harris wants to return the Commanders to the glory days of the 80s and 90s when the Hogs dominated the NFC. The best way to do that is to rebuild a struggling offensive line, especially since quarterback Sam Howell has taken a league-high 51 sacks this season. Alt is too obvious. He’s the son of former NFL guard John Alt and plays with the poise, power and tenacity of an old-school blocker. And he has allowed just one sack all season.

Yates: Alt is a 6-foot-8 left tackle who just doesn’t allow pressure. He might not have the suddenness or foot quickness of Fashanu, but the man is under control on every rep and makes a job of chaos look calm. Incumbent starter Charles Leno Jr. is 32, going into the final year of his deal and has zero guaranteed money leftover in that final year.

Reid: Yeah, coach Ron Rivera is on the hot seat, too, so Washington could have a new front office in place by draft time. Whenever there’s a new front office, premium positions are crucial. This team has to get better up front, as Leno and Andrew Wylie have been woefully inconsistent this season. This one seems like a simple call.

Miller: It’s also important to note that the tackles ranked immediately after Alt — JC Latham (Alabama), Amarius Mims (Georgia) and Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma) — all play the right side, so this is the last chance to get an elite left tackle. I don’t have another left tackle ranked inside my top 25, and that’s where the bigger need is right now.

Reid: That’s what makes this tackle class so interesting. After the top two in Fashanu and Alt, the entire second tier consists only of right tackle prospects. (I’d also put Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga in that group, Matt.)

Yates: If Turner were still on the board, we might have a larger conversation since the Commanders traded away both Sweat and Chase Young at the deadline. Edge rusher is a massive need, and Turner is terrific. Plus, he goes to Alabama, the Commanders’ front-seven Triple A team. With Turner off the board, though, this is an easy one. Alt is the pick.

Our pick for the Commanders: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

7. Tennessee Titans (3-7)

Reid: This is where it gets tough. The Titans have holes everywhere. The offensive line needs multiple starters. They need a tight end. And with DeAndre Hopkins turning 32 at the start of next season, Tennessee probably needs another receiver. GM Ran Carthon could go in several directions with this roster as he builds around quarterback Will Levis.

Yates: I like Coleman or UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu here. They’d both immediately fill positions of need. Latu is the most refined, nuanced pass-rusher in the class and having a terrific season (13 sacks and 20.6% pressure rate). Questions will be asked about his age — he’ll be 23 by draft day — and medical outlook, though. He retired from football due to a neck injury while at Washington but has since returned, transferred to UCLA and been spectacular.

I think I would lean Coleman. The Titans have had notable Round 1 whiffs in recent years and Coleman has massive upside and is a safer bet for a team that needs a whole lot.

Miller: Coleman is one of my favorite players in the entire class. He’s my “jump on the table” prospect who I’ll go to bat for every time. He has the ideal size-to-speed ratio and is a powerful runner. Florida State values his ability with the ball in his hands so much that he’s even the team’s punt returner! He has 11 touchdown catches this season and just one dropped pass, so the Titans would be getting a sure-handed, aggressive and fast receiver.

Reid: I love the fit, too. Levis has great arm strength and will take some risks with his throws, but he often struggles with his ball placement. That makes Coleman a great match because he can make catches outside his frame and bail out some off-target passes. He can win in contested situations and is aggressive attacking the ball in the air. Over the past two seasons, Coleman has 12 contested-catch touchdowns, the most in the FBS.

Yates: Truthfully, we could have Coleman to any team, and I’d be able to make a pretty compelling case for why he fits. You’d be hard-pressed to find a player with his combination of size, physicality and fluidity. All those traits are musts for the Tennessee offense, which is desperately short on receiver depth right now. As Jordan mentioned, Hopkins is turning 32 and entering the final year of his deal, and Treylon Burks hasn’t been the WR1 that the Titans had hoped for when they took him in Round 1 in 2022.

Miller: I have Coleman at No. 6 overall on my board, and he would be my WR1 in most classes; this one just happens to also feature Harrison. At worst, he looks like he’ll be a Tee Higgins-type receiver who can be a mismatch over smaller cornerbacks and a dynamic player after the catch. Instead of reaching for a pass-rusher or right tackle, the Titans can make what I consider a safe pick — something needed after the previous front office too often discounted injury and character risks in the first round.

Our pick for the Titans: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

8. Green Bay Packers (4-6)

Yates: The Packers have some undeniable talent on the roster, but areas that looked like strengths even a season or two ago — offensive line and cornerback — all of a sudden feel more uncertain. And when you have a pick this high and your quarterback is neither a surefire player nor early in his rookie deal, that position has to be on the table, too. Have the Packers seen enough to believe Jordan Love is their future? And if not, is there even a QB worth taking at No. 8? It might be too early to say.

Miller: If I’m in the room when the Packers come on the clock, and LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers is on the board, he’s my pick. But this is Green Bay, and GM Brian Gutekunst would never take a receiver in Round 1. That’s too bad because when Love looks good — and there are flashes, for sure — it’s clear that the Packers lack a true WR1 who forces the hand of a defense. Christian Watson has talent but hasn’t been a go-to target for Love. Nabers, with his awesome after-the-catch ability, is an ideal fit for that offense.

Reid: Yeah, the Packers really stick to their draft philosophies. Every year we want them to draft a receiver in Round 1, and it simply doesn’t happen. It’s also time for them to find an heir apparent to David Bakhtiari at left tackle, as he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but they also keep relying on developing Day 2 and Day 3 offensive tackles rather than using an early pick on a top-tier talent. They haven’t drafted an offensive tackle in Round 1 since Derek Sherrod in 2011. Twelve of Green Bay’s past 13 first-round picks have been on defense, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the team takes that route again.

Yates: Defensively, the Packers have a sudden cornerback quandary, as Rasul Douglas was traded and Eric Stokes has played just 26 games over the first two-plus seasons of his career. This might be a tad above where we’d project the top cornerback going, though, so that’s probably not the move. Teams can never have enough edge rushers, but with recent investments in Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness and Preston Smith, that’s likely off the board, too.

It all leads to a favorite of mine in this class: Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton. While Green Bay did use a first-round pick on Devonte Wyatt and has Kenny Clark as an anchor along the line, Newton is a play-wrecker whose versatility fits with any team.

Miller: Newton is my top defensive tackle in the class and an overall top-10 player. I had the chance to scout him in person against Kansas, and he was unstoppable. The Illinois defense has him moving all around the front, something Green Bay does like in prospects, and he has proven he can have success rushing from the 3-technique, working head-up on offensive tackles or even playing outside the tackle in a 6-technique.

Newton may be a “tweener” at 6-foot-2 and 295 pounds, but there isn’t a better pass-rushing defensive tackle in the class, as he has put up back-to-back seasons with 5.5 sacks. The Packers love versatility up front on both sides of the ball, and Newton would give them a penetrator on the interior who can play multiple alignments.

Reid: There are bigger needs, but yes, Green Bay might opt for the best remaining defensive player — which we can all agree is Newton at this stage. His versatility and explosiveness stand out every week. His relentlessness as pass-rusher and strength as a run-defender make him one of the most NFL-ready prospects in this class, regardless of position. And getting him in the mix with Clark and Wyatt would give the Packers plenty of depth.

Our pick for the Packers: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

9. Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)

Miller: We have to talk about quarterback when discussing the Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo has dealt with more injuries, and while rookie Aidan O’Connell has shown promise at times, he was a Day 3 pick and would be a surprise long-term starter. Is it too early for Michigan’s McCarthy here? He’s a top-15 prospect in my rankings, and we know teams love to trade up for quarterbacks.

Reid: With both coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler out of the door, there are still questions about the next front office, and that could direct a lot of this. The Garoppolo contract was an obvious mistake, but luckily for the Raiders, he isn’t owed any guaranteed money after 2024. Looking to trade him is an option that Vegas could explore, as some teams could be in the market for a backup or bridge starter. That’d open the door for a QB pick here, as teams routinely reach a little bit to get a Round 1 passer when it’s a big need.

Yates: What about defense? The Raiders have had some gritty defensive performances this season, but an organizational commitment to adding more blue-chippers on that side of the ball is logical, too. The jury is still out on April’s No. 7 pick Tyree Wilson — he has struggled so far — but another top pass-rusher or even a cornerback would be a sensible target. Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson has the most juice off the edge of any rusher in this class, even though he has modest sack production (three in total, two of which came against UMass) and size (he’s listed at 240 pounds).

Miller: Yeah, there are some solid edge rushers still out there in Latu, Robinson and Florida State’s Jared Verse. Cornerback is always a need for the Raiders, though, and I’ll throw out the name Terrion Arnold. The Alabama junior has risen to CB1 on my board thanks to his burst and playmaking ability. He has some raw moments and needs to learn on the job, but he has a ton of upside.

Reid: Amik Robertson, Nate Hobbs and Jakorian Bennett aren’t high-level starting cornerbacks, and Marcus Peters is on a one-year deal on the back end of his career. So I really like the Arnold suggestion, but I prefer Alabama’s other corner. Kool-Aid McKinstry has been inconsistent this season, but the highlight plays are eyebrow-raising.

Yates: It just feels a tad early for a cornerback. I have one more suggestion, flipping back to the offensive side of the ball. What about Latham to help out the offensive line? His strength is … his strength. He could probably bench press a house. We can all agree the Bama right tackle would make sense for the Raiders, right?

Miller: Interesting. Right tackle is definitely a need and has become a premium position. Latham is the top right tackle in the class and my next-highest tackle overall. He’s NFL-ready coming out of Alabama, and unlike Alex Leatherwood, he has the power and mobility to step into the lineup as a rookie and be a quality contributor. He has allowed two sacks over three seasons, including 23 starts.

Reid: At 6-foot-6 and 355 pounds, Latham is massive. His play strength and anchor make it very difficult for rushers, and there are few reps where he isn’t in control. He’s a people-mover in the run game and clears lanes with ease. His pass protection has continued to improve, and human beings that size aren’t supposed to move as well as Latham does. Putting him opposite Kolton Miller would give the Raiders solid bookends.

Our pick for the Raiders: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

10. New York Jets (4-6)

Yates: Let’s start by assuming quarterback Aaron Rodgers will decide to play another season for the Jets. He’ll need protection and pass-catchers. The Jets’ offensive line has been a disaster, so I do defer in that direction, but is there an offensive tackle worth taking here? And the Jets have a star wideout in Garrett Wilson, but the drop-off to their WR2 — Allen Lazard — has been jarring.

Miller: There isn’t a left tackle I would sign off on drafting at this spot. When looking at the right tackles, Georgia’s Mims and Oklahoma’s Guyton have awesome potential, but both are raw players who could sit as rookies. That doesn’t help the win-now Jets. I like the idea of adding a first-round pass-catcher for Rodgers, though. The value of Georgia’s Bowers is really solid here based on my board, and LSU’s Nabers is still hanging out there as the top-ranked WR available.

Yates: Tyler Conklin has emerged as perhaps the Jets’ second most reliable pass-catcher over the past three weeks, catching 15 passes over that span. He is a fine veteran presence, and while Bowers would absolutely be an upgrade, there is a clear need for juice outside in this passing game. Nabers can bring that.

Reid: Juice is exactly what Nabers brings, Field. He’s explosive and a crafty route runner. LSU uses him on screens, jet sweeps and reverses, and he places so much stress on defenses because he can turn what’s only supposed to be a small gain into a chunk play.

Nabers leads the FBS with 1,424 receiving yards and 62 first-down catches. That second number shows that his quarterback immediately looks his way in high-pressure situations because of his reliability. His competitiveness, ability to rack up yards after the catch and versatility remind me of DJ Moore.

Miller: I’m a huge Nabers fan, so I’m in on this pick. But for argument’s sake, what about a trade back? The Jets are in a must-win situation over the next year or two, but moving back a few spots to gain extra draft capital next year isn’t a bad thing. Let’s recall that the team doesn’t have a second-round pick thanks to the Rodgers trade, and this isn’t a roster that’s one rookie wide receiver away from winning the AFC.

Yates: You’ll be hard-pressed to ever convince me not to try to trade back. While the Jets were leapfrogged in 2023 for Broderick Jones, they might be able to move back in 2024 and still not miss out on a credible tackle talent. A slide to, say, No. 15 from No. 10 while adding an extra pick or two would be a home run.

Reid: Nabers is the pick, but I can’t believe Bowers didn’t come off the board in the top 10. It comes back to positional value, and it’s just how the board fell here.

Our pick for the Jets: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU