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2023 DRAFT
Matt Miller and Jordan Reid of ESPN.com look at the top of the upcoming draft with all the perspective late November can offer.
There are just seven weeks left in the 2022 NFL season, and the 2023 draft order is slowly starting to take shape. We have a good idea of which teams will be picking at the top of the board come April — and what positions they could be targeting. The one-win Texans are still the heavy favorites to land the top pick, but the Panthers, Seahawks (thanks to the Broncos), Bears and Steelers are right on their tail. So as we prepare for the season’s final stretch — and college football’s rivalry week — let’s take an early look at what might happen in the top 10 at the draft.
Our NFL draft experts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid dug in on the first 10 picks, debating which top prospects make sense for each team projected to have an early selection. Which teams need quarterbacks? Where will the top defenders land? And will we have a receiver-less top 10 for the first time since 2020? Jordan and Matt discussed each franchise’s options and needs before arriving at a consensus pick in each spot. Finally, they wrap it all up by each picking a team currently just outside the top 10 to watch. Houston is on the clock to start.
1. Houston Texans (1-8-1)
Miller: The Texans have a major quarterback problem after rolling the dice on second-year passer Davis Mills this season. To be clear, it was the smart play — Houston had to see if the third-rounder could become its franchise quarterback — but Mills hasn’t answered the call. The Texans are the third-worst-scoring offense in the NFL, and Mills’ Total QBR is just 29.3 (No. 30 overall). It’s time for a change, and the Texans must go with either Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud here. Right, Jordan?
Reid: Yeah, Houston will do its homework on both passers. Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has had success with guys like Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert under center, and Stroud has some similar traits. At 6-foot-3, 218 pounds, he is a high-level processor with a fluid throwing motion and is excellent with taking what is presented to him, throwing 35 touchdown passes and just four interceptions this season. Stroud’s ability to see, react and attack coverages is the best in this class, and he is starting to run a bit more, too.
Miller: OK, but what about Young, my QB1 in this class? There will be a long debate about his size — he’s listed at 6-foot, 195 pounds — but there is no doubting his poise or clutch gene. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner hasn’t been surrounded by the talent we’re used to seeing in Tuscaloosa this season, carrying a team that lacks first-round prospects at wide receiver, tight end and every offensive line position. That’s something Stroud can’t say.
Reid: I think Young has the stronger arm of the two passers, too, though Stroud’s accuracy is slightly better. I could definitely see Young turning around the Texans. He has completed 63.8% of his passes this season for 24 touchdown throws, four interceptions and an 80.3 Total QBR. He could pair with former teammate John Metchie III, who is recovering from leukemia but caught 96 passes from Young at Alabama last season.
Miller: The biggest takeaway is the Texans need a quarterback who can step in to be the guy right away. The AFC South is not the NFL’s strongest division, and with Ryan Tannehill aging in Tennessee, there could be an opening to quickly move to the top of the pack. With Young’s instincts, field vision, pocket poise and accuracy, he can be a Week 1 impact player as a rookie.
Reid: Houston could go either way, and there’s a lot of time left here. But let’s go with Young.
Our pick for Houston: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
2. Carolina Panthers (3-8)
Reid: It seems we are headed toward an either/or situation with the No. 2 overall pick, similar to Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota in 2015. If the Panthers end up second behind another QB-needy team, they will take whichever of Young and Stroud is still available. I really don’t envision them entertaining any other position. Carolina has dealt draft picks to acquire Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield in recent years and moved up to draft Matt Corral in Round 3 in April, but it really needs to find its true face of the franchise. That QB isn’t currently on the roster.
Miller: I do like Stroud for Carolina. He fits with the personnel already on the team, including DJ Moore, Terrace Marshall Jr., Tommy Tremble, Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton. We’ve seen a little more running from Stroud lately, which could unlock in his game as a pro, similar to how Herbert started using his legs more once getting drafted by the Chargers. As a passer, Stroud displays full-field accuracy and enough arm strength to reach every level of the passing tree. His 89.7 Total QBR leads the nation.
Reid: Stroud makes sense. There was some early-season buzz about Kentucky quarterback Will Levis as a top-five selection. Would he be in the back of Carolina’s mind? His 6-foot-3, 232-pound size and high-end physical traits are undeniable, and the Panthers might believe they will eventually have the coaching in place to solve his turnover woes. It’s something that could come up in the draft room.
Miller: I came into the season really wanting Levis to take the next step, but no, he hasn’t shaken those turnover issues. Scouts love this guy, though, and they point to scheme changes and a lack of talent around him to explain the turnovers. Levis is toolsy with arm strength, really good mobility and an aggressive mindset, but for me, he just isn’t on the same level as Young and Stroud.
Reid: It seems we’re in agreement. Stroud would solve a lot of the team’s issues and give the Panthers their first quarterback of the future since drafting Cam Newton at No. 1 overall in 2011.
Our pick for Carolina: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
3. Seattle Seahawks (via 3-7 DEN)
Miller: Now it gets interesting. Will the Seahawks re-sign quarterback Geno Smith? Both of the top QBs are off the table, anyway, and it’s still early for Levis. This front office is in an amazing position here with the 1A and 1B non-quarterback prospects still on the board. The decision between Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter is tough but a good one to have. I lean toward Carter for Seattle, though, simply because of need. The Seahawks have Boye Mafe and Uchenna Nwosu off the edge but need that game-breaker up the middle. Is passing on a top-tier talent like Anderson bonkers?
Reid: I actually completely agree with you. If you look around the NFC West, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford and Smith all seem to struggle when they get interior pressure right in their faces. Carter could help the Seahawks gain an advantage there. One of the 6-foot-3, 300-pounder’s best attributes is pushing the pocket and penetrating the middle as an inside pass-rusher. He has two sacks and 11 pressures through eight games.
Miller: Carter has the elite get-off ability and can control A and B gaps in the run game, and he’s really one of the most complete defensive tackles we’ve seen in a while. The drop-off at defensive tackle in this class is much more significant than edge rusher, too, and remember, the Seahawks will have another pick at the end of Round 1. Pairing him with Andre Carter II (Army), Isaiah Foskey (Notre Dame) or Jared Verse (Florida State) makes for a better duo than putting Anderson with a late-first-round interior lineman.
Reid: Carter reminds me of the Jets’ Quinnen Williams. They have similar builds, and both have the quickness to wreak havoc along the interior. Neither are space-eaters in the middle, so they instead impact the run by creating leaks in the first level that completely throw off the timing of rushing concepts.
Miller: I see a little Fletcher Cox in his game. He’s not Aaron Donald — no one is! — but he’ll be a really good interior pass-rusher and run-defender from the jump. I do love this fit as Seattle continues to remake its defense around core inside players. Passing on Anderson might seem odd, but Carter is very closely graded and the better roster fit given Seattle’s lack of an inside presence next to Poona Ford.
Reid: One more thing to consider is the prime trade-back opportunity. A QB-needy team could be looking to move up the board, especially if either Young or Stroud fall, meaning Seattle could pick up even more future draft capital. The Seahawks are really in a great spot here.
Our pick for Seattle: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
4. Chicago Bears (3-8)
Reid: This board couldn’t have fallen any better for the Bears. Justin Fields is showing he can be the franchise quarterback, and general manager Ryan Poles has to focus on adding the best talent possible to a lackluster roster. It’s an offensive lineman or the best player available for Chicago, and when that best player available is Anderson, the decision becomes easy.
Miller: Poles cleaned house on the edge, trading Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn, so Anderson gives him an elite prospect to start his rebuild of the defensive line. Relentless is the word that comes to mind when evaluating Anderson. At 6-foot-4, 243 pounds, he has a nonstop motor and excellent speed out of his stance. He’s my top overall player in this class, and I’ve compared him to Von Miller. I’d place him above Aidan Hutchinson and Travon Walker among recent edge rush prospects, and he’s right on par with Nick Bosa and Chase Young from previous classes. And while this might look like he’s falling, this is really just a super-lucky outcome for the Bears.
Reid: Alabama has used Anderson all over the place this season, and he has been forced to hide a lot of the Crimson Tide’s defensive warts by reducing down inside. And while he’s not posting the 17.5 sacks or 34.5 tackles for a loss we saw in 2021, he’s still producing at a high level. Anderson has eight sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss and 44 pressures on the year, and his tape shows a lot of “almost” plays where he gets into the backfield but doesn’t quite finish. The Bears need that type of presence off the edge, with their 15 sacks ranking 31st.
Miller: We could see the Bears pick up an offensive tackle early in this draft, though. Fifth-rounder Braxton Jones has been solid at left tackle, and Teven Jenkins is developing into a really good right guard, so the foundation is in place for a solid offensive line. But the unit still needs improvement — Chicago has allowed 40 sacks, tied for the most in the league.
Reid: Yeah, if it’s not Anderson (or Carter), this deep offensive line class could be tempting. Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State), Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State) and Peter Skoronski (Northwestern) are intriguing, but the Bears can’t pass up Anderson. They have a lot of draft capital, though, and could trade back into the later parts of the first round or address tackle on Day 2. The second and third rounds could also be where Chicago finds another receiver for Fields.
Our pick for Chicago: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7)
Miller: We’ve made it through four picks, and no offensive tackles are off the board. I like the Steelers to grab one here. Their offensive line has been pieced together with castoffs and late-round picks, so it’s time to build with a premium prospect. An anchor is needed, and Johnson feels like that kind of player.
Reid: I’m with you. After starting at right guard for the entirety of the 2021 season, Johnson has seamlessly transitioned to left tackle and has been very impressive. The Steelers desperately need help up front to protect Kenny Pickett, and Johnson’s ability as a pass-protector, demeanor as a run blocker and overall upside fit the billing of what Pittsburgh likes in its offensive tackles. He hasn’t allowed a single sack this season and has taken just one penalty.
Miller: The Steelers are never drafting in the top 10 picks, so this is a rare opportunity to grab a very pro-ready prospect at a premium position. Left tackle is arguably the second-most important position in football behind the quarterback — another position that might be in play here. Pickett hasn’t exactly set the NFL on fire in his first season, and the Steelers must at least have the conversation about where they grade Levis compared to Pickett. I’m still drafting Johnson, though. Levis isn’t a surefire upgrade over Pickett.
Reid: I wouldn’t put Pittsburgh entertaining a defensive player here out of the realm of possibilities. Cornerback is a huge need, and this draft class is very deep at the position. Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. has been excellent this year, and Georgia’s Kelee Ringo has great size (6-foot-2) and toughness. And even still, the Steelers likely will be praying that Anderson or Carter fall to them.
Miller: Oh yeah, if Carter falls to the Steelers, that’s an immediate “yes” from me. He could be the next Cameron Heyward on that defensive line. My next best defender available is Clemson defensive end Myles Murphy. But does he fit?
Reid: He seems to be flying under the radar. A three-man rotation of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Murphy would be intriguing, but after investing a first-rounder on Pickett, Pittsburgh has to go all-in on protecting him.
Our pick for Pittsburgh: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
6. Las Vegas Raiders (3-7)
Reid: This pick is the toughest one in this top 10. The Raiders arguably have been the NFL’s most disappointing team this season, and there are a lot of different directions they could go. What’s your approach here, Matt?
Miller: I was hoping you’d go first. This is a tough one!
Reid: I knew you were going to say that. OK, the elephant in the room is what happens with Derek Carr. He doesn’t have any more guaranteed money left on his contract after this season, and the Raiders could start over at quarterback. But Josh McDaniels’ job might be on the line in 2023, and I just don’t see him relying on a rookie QB to determine his fate. With Chandler Jones struggling this season, a defensive end could be the play. Las Vegas is last in the league in sacks (13).
Miller: I’m torn between Murphy and Skoronski. I’m sure Las Vegas would hesitate to draft another Clemson defensive end in the top 10 after the Clelin Ferrell letdown. I never scout the helmet, but fans will no doubt be panicking if Murphy is the pick. He is a fantastic all-around player, though. We’re talking about a dominant defensive end at 6-foot-5, 275 pounds, who is rumored to run the 40-yard dash in the high 4.5-second range. The Raiders would be excited about pairing Murphy with Maxx Crosby and Jones.
Reid: I saw Murphy up close in the Tigers’ game against NC State, and he looks the part. He has an electric first step, but what really blew me away was his hand-fighting maturity. Murphy already has a full arsenal of pass-rush moves. And he’s also a strong run defender, setting a hard edge and making it difficult for offensive tackles to gain leverage on his outside shoulder. Murphy has 6.5 sacks, 24 pressures and 10 tackles for loss on the year.
Miller: I know we aren’t projecting trades, but the Raiders are a really intriguing trade-back team, too. There will definitely be teams wanting to jump ahead of the Lions for the chance to get a quarterback — and we could even see the Lions trade up to block such a move, much like the Bears did in 2017 when they moved from No. 3 to No. 2. With Levis on the board and a big drop-off after him in the QB class, the Raiders might be manning the phones on draft night if the board falls this way.
Our pick for Las Vegas: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
7. Detroit Lions (4-6)
Miller: The Lions have to go quarterback … right? Jared Goff isn’t to blame for all their issues, but he’s also not the long-term answer. Detroit is in a spot to get a potential franchise quarterback and then let him learn under Goff. It also has a good offensive line and playmakers on offense, which helps any young passer. Levis is the only available QB you could really value here, though. Florida’s Anthony Richardson didn’t take the next step, Tyler Van Dyke has been hurt and benched at Miami, and it’s too early for Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker (who tore his left ACL on Saturday).
Reid: Levis hasn’t played well this season, throwing for 2,218 yards and 17 TD passes, though Kentucky’s poor offensive line and lack of high-end targets in the pass game haven’t helped his cause. Yes, he definitely needs to take better care of the ball, but it’s clear he has physical traits that scouts covet. The ball comes out of his hand with velocity, and NFL coordinators can design schemes around his competitive running ability. He definitely fits in Detroit.
Miller: My biggest worry is the turnovers. He has 10 interceptions this season, had 13 last season and far too often makes poor decisions. Levis is going to need time to iron out those issues and get coached up in terms of what he sees from defenses.
Reid: The great thing for the Lions is that Goff is under contract through 2023, which would allow them to ease in Levis. With Penei Sewell, Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown, the offensive core is already in place, but there’s no need to rush a young QB out there.
Miller: There’s not much else for the Lions to do here, too. I guess a cornerback could make a little sense because Jeff Okudah — the No. 3 overall pick in 2020 — hasn’t exactly become the next Deion Sanders. Receiver isn’t a need anymore. It’s all quarterback here. Don’t forget the Lions also have the Rams’ first-round selection, which is only a few picks down the road. They have the draft capital to move up for Young or Stroud if a team without a need at quarterback (Chicago or Pittsburgh) lands in the top two picks.
Our pick for Detroit: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
8. Philadelphia Eagles (via 4-7 NO)
Miller: OK, Philly gets this pick from that strange trade with the Saints last April. And you’re going to laugh here, but why not Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer? Dallas Goedert recently signed an extension through 2025, but this offense has very few needs, and we saw Philadelphia roll often with a two-TE look during the Zach Ertz/Goedert days in a scheme very similar to this one. I’m thinking the best player available, and Mayer is my second-best prospect still out there behind Texas running back Bijan Robinson.
Reid: Can I toss out another idea? The injury to Jordan Davis was massive for the Eagles, and the Week 10 loss to the Commanders showed how much the Eagles value interior defensive players. Philadelphia signed Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh in back-to-back days, so it’s clear general manager Howie Roseman wants a lot of big bodies up the middle. How about Clemson defensive tackle Bryan Bresee here?
Miller: Yeah, that’s a great pick. You’ve won me over already! The Eagles do need someone in the middle next to Davis for the long haul, and Bresee can be that dude for life after Fletcher Cox. The combo of Davis and Bresee would be a problem for other teams, as they can both beat teams up with power and quickness.
Reid: Bresee would be a great fit because of his explosiveness, consistency as a pass-rusher (2.5 sacks and 14 pressures in seven games) and ability to penetrate the first level as a run defender. With Cox and Javon Hargrave scheduled to become free agents in the offseason, Philadelphia might have a need there in 2023.
Miller: My early comp for Bresee is the Giants’ Leonard Williams. He’s so good at the point of attack, and like Williams at USC, he rarely loses ground or gets rocked back in the run game. Bresee has become more of a well-rounded defensive tackle this season, playing with more strength, and it’s obvious he can be a three-down asset.
Reid: It’s funny to think that some thought quarterback could be a first-round possibility for the Eagles prior to the season, but Jalen Hurts has silenced those critics. Defensive tackle is the way to go because Roseman values building up the trenches and providing waves of depth there to wear down offensive lines.
Our pick for Philadelphia: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
9. Detroit Lions (via 3-7 LAR)
Miller: The Lions are back on the clock, and after we gifted them a franchise quarterback, it’s time to maybe look at the defense. This is a bad unit despite some young building blocks in place, surrendering 6.4 yards per play — worst in the NFL by almost half a yard. And as I mentioned earlier, Okudah hasn’t lived up to his draft status. Penn State’s Porter is sitting right here and would help immediately.
Reid: I have the same name in mind. Porter makes a lot of sense here. Okudah is finally healthy and looking a little bit better, but the cornerback opposite him — Amani Oruwariye — is set to become a free agent. And Detroit is allowing 8.1 yards per attempt, tied for a league high.
Miller: The son of the star pass-rusher for the Steelers in the 2000s, Porter has great recovery quickness and physicality in coverage, and he has excelled when tested by NFL-caliber receivers. I’d take his 6-foot-2, 200-pound size, toughness and instincts over the other top cornerbacks in this class.
Reid: Yeah, he has the length and ball skills to be a great starter at the next level. He’s still a bit grabby with his technique, but more reps should clean that up. Porter doesn’t have an interception this season, but he has 11 pass breakups.
Miller: So with two picks in the top 10, the Lions find their quarterback of the future and a plug-and-play corner with All-Pro potential. Not bad.
Our pick for Detroit: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
Reid: I’ll go first. I’m thinking cornerback or receiver, and I wrote down TCU wideout Quentin Johnston. Many of the wide receivers Trevor Lawrence had success with in college — Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross — were tall guys in the go-up-and-get-it type. The Jaguars don’t have that on their roster, and that’s Johnston. His catch radius, strong hands and route versatility really pop on tape.
Miller: What about Jordan Addison? He’s my top-ranked wide receiver and has taken his game to the next level after transferring from Pittsburgh to USC this summer. The fit maybe isn’t ideal because Addison is 6-foot and 175 pounds, and you nailed it that Jacksonville needs a big target. But I do think his route-running and run-after-catch ability works in any offense. Christian Kirk has been solid since Jacksonville signed him in March, and the Jags did trade for Calvin Ridley (suspended for at least the year), but a receiver definitely seems like the direction here, whether that’s Johnston or Addison.
Reid: My NFL comp for Addison is actually Ridley. He has ridiculous start-stop quickness and strong hands, and he can gain and keep separation with ease.
Miller: Offensive tackle could be in play here, too, given the value of the position and the fact that Skoronski and Fashanu are still available. But I’m on board with Johnston. He’s a great fit and gives Lawrence that go-to big body in the red zone. His 6-foot-4 size is something they lack on the outside. And oddly enough, my first comp for Johnston was Higgins.
Reid: Johnston has 49 catches for 764 yards and five TDs this season after a slow start. This wide receiver class as a whole isn’t what we’ve seen over the past few years, and it’s possible none get drafted in the top 10. Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba has battled a nagging hamstring injury all season, and LSU’s Kayshon Boutte hasn’t been as involved in the offense this year. Jacksonville could still be in a good place if it doesn’t go receiver, though. You’ll likely see very talented prospects fall as teams make moves for quarterbacks.
Miller: My top-ranked players to slip through the top 10 here are Texas’ Robinson and Notre Dame’s Mayer — both really good players but at positions (running back and tight end) no longer seen as priorities early in the first round.
Reid: Yeah, I have Fashanu and Skoronski high on my board, along with Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson. If things fall like this, teams are going to get a good value on impact players outside the top 10.
Our pick for Jacksonville: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Two intriguing teams on the outside looking in
Miller: I’ll go with the Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) as my team to watch. General manager Chris Ballard has to be feeling some heat after the team fired coach Frank Reich midseason. He has to finally address the quarterback position for the long haul. Going from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan hasn’t been what this team needed, so he needs to finally pick a QB in the draft and build around him. Can Indy sneak into the top 10? Can it find a way to move up the board?
Reid: The Green Bay Packers (4-7) are spiraling downward, and they’re in an interesting situation because of Aaron Rodgers’ contract. He signed a massive extension this past offseason, and regardless of whether he gets back on track, the Packers aren’t moving on from him. But what can they do to improve around him? Offensive tackle, safety, tight end and receiver are among the top needs in Green Bay.
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