| NFC NORTH |
| CHICAGOThe Bears are this year’s Chiefs. They are 8-3 with a -3 point differential. They are 6-1 in one-score games, 6-0 since their Week 1 loss to Minnesota. |
| NFC EAST |
| NEW YORK GIANTSAfter his fabulous receiving TD Sunday in Detroit, is WR JAMEIS WINSTON headed to TAYSOM HILL territory? Brian Jones of On3.com: Jameis Winston believes he can play the tight end position when rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart returns to the lineup. After the Giants’ overtime loss to the Detroit Lions, Winston, who caught a touchdown pass in the game, spoke to reporters about being able to play different positions. “I like to consider myself an athlete,” Jameis Winston said. “I beleive that I can make plays like that for this team. If I need to play tight end, I can. I’ll do whatever it is that’s required for this team to have success.” Early in the fourth quarter, Winston caught a TD pass thrown by wide receiver Gunner Olszewski. At the time, the play gave the Giants a 27-17 lead. “I’m grateful that [Mike Kafka] gave me an opportunity,” Winston added. “Gunner trusted me to… He gave me a chance. Sometimes that’s all you got to do at the quarterback position. Give your guy a chance.” |
| NFC SOUTH |
| CAROLINAAre the 49ers happy that Panthers LB TRE’VON MOEHRIG has been suspended for one game due to his actions against them? Because the team against which Carolina will be without one of its best defenders is the rival Rams. Panthers safety Tre’von Moehrig has been suspended without pay for one game for punching 49ers receiver Jauan Jennings on Monday night, the NFL announced on Tuesday afternoon. Moehrig punched Jennings in the groin after a play, constituting a clear violation of Rule 12, Section 3, Article 1, which the NFL cited as applying to “any act which is contrary to the generally understood principles of sportsmanship,” including “throwing a punch, or a forearm, or kicking at an opponent.” Moehrig’s punch led to a brief altercation after the game ended, with Jennings shoving Moehrig. According to multiple reports, only Moehrig will be suspended, though the NFL will review Jennings’ actions for a fine. Via Adam Schefter of ESPN, Moehrig plans to appeal his suspension. That appeal will be heard by either Derrick Brooks, Ramon Foster, or Jordy Nelson. In 12 games this season, Moehrig has recorded 81 total tackles with 10 tackles for loss, one sack, and one interception. Moehrig is currently eligible to return to the Panthers on Monday, Dec. 1, after the team’s Week 13 matchup with the Rams on Sunday.– – -Jay Busbee of YahooSports.com thinks QB BRYCE YOUNG will be out as Carolina’s QB sooner, rather than later: No idea in the NFL is foolproof, but “draft the Heisman-winning quarterback from the winningest college football program of the century” sure seems like it would be a safe bet. Not so, as the Carolina Panthers are learning. Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, is slowly but relentlessly playing himself out of a starting job. The Panthers are currently 6-6 after Monday night’s loss to San Francisco, mathematically in the playoff hunt but not fooling anyone. That game provided a perfect microcosm of Young’s struggles and limitations. The 49ers’ Brock Purdy threw interceptions on three straight possessions, with two coming in San Francisco territory and one in the red zone for Carolina, and yet Young was only able to convert them into three points. Young threw for just 169 yards on 18 of 29 attempts, with two interceptions and just one highlight-worthy touchdown: That dynamic — one good moment in a sea of ugly ones — has characterized Young’s 2025 season. With the exception of last week’s game against the Falcons, where he threw for 448 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, his entire season has been an underwhelming one. He’s surpassed 200 yards passing just twice on the season. Four times, he’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. He ranks near the bottom of all season-long starters in most major statistical categories — completion percentage, yardage, passer rating, QB rating. The problem, of course, is that this isn’t exactly out of character for Young on the professional level. Over 41 games, he’s just 12-27 as a starter and has struggled against every team that’s not Atlanta. Young’s woes are all the more apparent now that Carolina has added some significant key pieces, including rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan and newly acquired running back Rico Dowdle. The Panthers defense ranks in the middle of the pack in major stats like yardage and points allowed … which is significant given the fact that Carolina ranked dead last in both categories in 2024. As the rest of the team builds, the quarterback is stuck in the same middling spot as last year, and the year before that. Young’s postgame media conference Monday night hit the same familiar themes over and over again — lack of execution, flush it after 24 hours, and so on. What else can you say, really, about yet another underwhelming performance? “Next week we’re going to be 0-0,” he said. “We don’t have the luxury to think about the big picture thing with us. That’s not a good recipe for this league. Everyone demands our attention.” Young may not be focusing on the bigger picture, but the Panthers now must. The key date for Young’s Carolina future is May 1, 2026. By then, the Panthers must decide whether to offer Young a fifth-year option on his rookie deal. Also of note: That date will come after the 2026 NFL Draft, when the Panthers will have the opportunity to draft a quarterback for the future. At six wins now, with the Rams, Seahawks and Bucs twice still to come on their schedule, the Panthers are likely to fall in the upper middle of the first round — too low to get one of the top potential quarterback prospects, but not so far to be out of the hunt entirely. Young has five games left to make his case for an extension. He was a costly selection — the Panthers traded away a raft of picks as well as wide receiver D.J. Moore to the Bears to move up and grab him — but he could end up being more costly if Carolina stays with him going forward. |
| NEW ORLEANSLegendary PK Justin Tucker was in New Orleans, but it was PK CADE YORK who caught the Saints fancy instead. Robby Kalland of CBSSports.com: The New Orleans Saints are officially making a change at kicker, and it doesn’t involve Justin Tucker. The Saints are signing Cade York to their practice squad and releasing Blake Grupe, ESPN reported Tuesday. York, who had stints with the Browns, Bengals and Commanders, was signed over Tucker after the team held kicker tryouts Monday. The Saints held the tryouts after their latest loss to the Falcons dropped them to 2-9 on the season. Grupe missed two field goals in the loss to Atlanta. Tucker, the former Ravens kicker who served a 10-game suspension to start this season for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, was among the names competing for the job. It was his first workout since the conclusion of his suspension. Tucker, 36, is accused of inappropriate behavior by 16 massage therapists and was released by the Ravens this offseason after spending the entirety of his 13-year career in Baltimore. Tucker was once the best kicker in the league, but had serious struggles in 2024, hitting just 73.3% of his 30 field goal attempts for the Ravens. While Tucker is not facing any lawsuits or legal filings related to the accusations, any team signing him would have to be willing to take on the questions that will inevitably follow him about what led the league to suspend him after an investigation into the alleged inappropriate conduct. The Saints went a different route by adding York, a 24-year-old who was chosen by the Cleveland Browns in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. York went 24 of 32 in his lone season with Cleveland and most recently had a five-game stint with the Cincinnati Bengals in 2024 while Evan McPherson was injured. For his career, York is 33 of 45 (73.3%) on field goals and 51 of 54 on extra points. |
| AFC WEST |
| DENVERThis: DT Malcolm Roach and the Broncos agreed to a three-year contract extension worth up to $29.25 million with $14 million guaranteed, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported. |
| AFC NORTH |
| CINCINNATIQB JOE BURROW explains to keyboard warriors why he is going to play Thursday and beyond. Chris Cwik of YahooSports.com: If he’s healthy, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is going to play. It doesn’t matter if the Bengals are 3-8 and heavy underdogs to make the playoffs, Burrow wants to be out there. Burrow expressed as much Tuesday, responding to critics questioning whether he should risk another injury to return to a Bengals team with little-to-no postseason hopes. He shut down that thought, saying it “doesn’t make a lot of sense,” per ESPN. “I’m not ever going to go to somebody and say, ‘Yeah, I’m healthy, but I don’t think I should go out there and play,'” Burrow said Tuesday, ahead of his anticipated return against the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving. “That doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I’m not going to live my life and play this game scared of something happening.” Burrow, 28, is set to return to the field to take on the division-rival Baltimore Ravens on Thursday. The two-time Pro Bowler missed the team’s last nine games after dealing with turf toe. He was originally expected to miss three months due to the injury, but recovered faster than expected. After starting the season 2-0, the Bengals went into a free fall following Burrow’s injury. The team lost its next four games, eventually trading for veteran quarterback Joe Flacco when Jake Browning faltered in the starting role. Flacco managed to lead the team to a win over the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7, but the Bengals couldn’t keep up that momentum. The team finds itself on another four-game losing streak ahead of Burrow’s return. At 3-8, the Bengals haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs just yet, but their chances of making the postseason are slim. Cincinnati enters Week 13 with just a .31 percent chance to get in, per NFL.com. While a win over Baltimore in Week 13 wouldn’t drastically alter the Bengals’ chances, it could pay off down the road. The Ravens currently lead the AFC North with a 6-5 record. The team has yet to play the Bengals this season, meaning Cincinnati could pick up two games on the division leader if it can sweep the series. Following Week 13’s game, the two teams will meet again in Week 15. If the Bengals can win both games, the team could actually wind up playing for something down the stretch. In order to do that, though, Burrow likely needs to stay on the field. For all his excellence, Burrow has dealt with a number of injuries during his career. He’s missed at least six games in three of his six NFL seasons due to different issues. When healthy for a full season, though, Burrow has dazzled, never throwing fewer than 34 touchdowns in a year in which he played at least 16 games. Burrow is well aware of those injuries as he returns to the field in Week 13, but said it’s not something he can worry about moving forward, per ESPN. “Yeah, I’ve had injuries,” Burrow said. “There’s not a lot I can do about that. I worked really hard to have that not happen.” Despite facing massive odds, the Bengals have hope thanks to Burrow. While the team still faces a tough road ahead, anything is possible when Burrow is healthy. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| INDIANAPOLISFired in Cincinnati last year, Colts DC Lou Anarumo is now a hot head coaching candidate. Nick Shook of NFL.com: It’s funny how one season can completely transform the narrative surrounding a coach in the NFL. At this time a year ago, Lou Anarumo was headed for the unemployment line. His Bengals defense was among the worst in the NFL and the clear scapegoat for Cincinnati’s failure to reach the playoffs despite owning an explosive offense capable of competing with any opponent. The disappointing defensive year capped a gradual decline and all but vanquished any hopes of Anarumo becoming a head coach, once a very real possibility after his defense thrived during Cincinnati’s run to Super Bowl LVI in 2021. Anarumo was unsurprisingly fired by Bengals coach Zac Taylor and replaced by Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden. Eventually, the Colts called Anarumo and hired him to replace Gus Bradley in Indianapolis, giving him a new chance to prove himself as a defensive director. It just might earn him another look at a head coaching gig, too. “I’d be lying to you if I said that down the road that wasn’t something that would be a career goal, but my full attention is on the Houston Texans,” Anarumo told The Indianapolis Star on Tuesday. “And they better be, because they’re a really good football team. “While I appreciate all that stuff, my main — and sole — focus is on the Texans this week.” The fresh head-coaching buzz surrounding Anarumo is not random. Anarumo has taken a relatively competitive defense and guided it toward a strong showing in the most important category: points allowed per game. Entering Week 13, the Colts rank ninth in the NFL, surrendering an average of 20.8 points per contest while landing in the lower third in total yards allowed per game. Those numbers define the bend-but-don’t-break mentality in which a unit gives up substantial yards but bows up when it matters most. It’s a significant reason why the Colts have surprised the NFL by running out to an 8-3 record and a first-place standing in the AFC South. There’s another reason, though, why Anarumo’s name is being tossed back into the coaching ring. The New York Giants have a vacancy after firing Brian Daboll and might be interested in taking a second look at Anarumo, who was a candidate for the job back when the Giants chose Daboll in 2022. The Giants’ coaching search is also being led by a man who is very familiar to Anarumo: general manager Joe Schoen, who worked in Miami at the same time Anarumo served as Dolphins defensive backs coach (and eventual interim defensive coordinator). Schoen was the one who hired Daboll in 2022 shortly after he was named Giants GM. After ending that partnership, he might look back through his rolodex toward another familiar face in Anarumo. For now, it’s merely buzz. The Colts have plenty left to accomplish, starting with a divisional matchup with Houston that has increased in importance thanks to the Texans’ recent winning streak. But whenever this run ends, don’t be surprised if Anarumo’s name returns to the surface during the hiring cycle. He just might land the job he missed out on a few years ago. |
| AFC EAST |
| BUFFALOWR BRANDIN COOKS, who was only okay on the Saints, is now a Bill. Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com: The Bills added yet another veteran receiver, signing Brandin Cooks to the active roster Tuesday. Cooks was waived by the New Orleans Saints on Saturday and cleared waivers Monday. He requested to be released, per Saints coach Kellen Moore, a process that took place over the past week. The Bills have elevated receiver Gabe Davis from the practice squad for the past two games. Buffalo also signed receiver/returner Mecole Hardman this month, but he was placed on injured reserve with a calf injury after a fumble on his punt return in his first game with the team in Week 11. Second-year receiver Keon Coleman has been a healthy scratch for the past two games stemming initially from disciplinary issues. The Bills are on pace to have no 1,000-yard receiver for the second straight year. Tight end Dalton Kincaid has the most receiving touchdowns on the team with four despite playing in just eight games this season. The Bills’ offense has scored less than 20 points in all three road losses this year and heads to Pittsburgh on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). The offense is averaging 32.5 points per game at home this season, compared with 21.8 on the road. Bills general manager Brandon Beane said after the trade deadline that the team tried to acquire players but that no deals came together. Cooks, 32, was a first-round pick by the Saints in 2014 and has 729 career receptions, 9,697 yards and 60 touchdowns in 12 seasons. This year was his second stint with the Saints. He has also played for the New England Patriots, Los Angeles Rams, Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys. Cooks had 19 catches for 165 yards and no touchdowns in 10 games with the Saints this season. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| PLAYOFF PROBABILITIESFrom NFL.com: NFL playoff picture entering Week 13 AFC Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %1. Patriots (10-2) 99% >99% 96% 34%2. Broncos (9-2) 97% 99% 94% 40%3. Colts (8-3) 86% 94% 73% 16%4. Ravens (6-5) 69% 75% 55% <1%5. Chargers (7-4) 58% 65% 37% 2%6. Jaguars (7-4) 69% 78% 48% 4%7. Bills (7-4) 88% 95% 77% 6% Get ready for some wild swings within the AFC hierarchy, folks! Eight teams — the Texans (32%), Jaguars (29%), Chargers (28%), Chiefs (25%), Steelers (23%), Colts (21%), Ravens (19%) and Bills (18%) — have playoff leverages of at least 18 points this week. That’s twice as many as in the NFC. Still not enough stakes for you? Well consider that half of these AFC hopefuls are set to square off against each other on Sunday (Texans-Colts, Bills-Steelers). Unlike the teams above, the 9-2 Broncos have a lot less to worry about this holiday weekend, in part because of what transpired in Week 12 while they were off the grid. As far as bye weeks go, the Broncos couldn’t have asked for a better break — or for more things to break their way. The Colts fell to Kansas City, dropping them to one game behind Denver in the conference standing, which is notable because Indy has the head-to-head tie-breaker in its pocket. The Bills and Steelers also both lost, essentially clearing out two potential challengers for the conference’s No. 1 seed (Buffalo figured to be more of a problem than Pittsburgh, but still). As a result, the probability that Denver will finish atop the AFC increased by 14 points from last week. Sure, Sean Payton would’ve preferred a Patriots loss, too, given that Mike Vrabel’s crew currently occupies the top spot — but New England is simply a placeholder at this point, at least until both teams have played the same number of games. With wins at Washington (3-8) and Las Vegas (2-9) over the next two weeks, Denver would reclaim first place entering the season’s final quarter, regardless of what New England (which will be taking its bye in Week 14) or any other team does in the meantime. In fact, even if both the Broncos and the Pats were to win out and finish 15-2, Denver would clinch the No. 1 seed based on record against common opponents. … Who would’ve thought the Raiders’ win at Foxborough on opening weekend would potentially decide the fate of the conference’s lone playoff bye? The Patriots’ place in the pecking order might be temporary, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be celebrated. Winning 10 games through 12 weeks, including nine in a row, is no small feat — even with the benefit of the league’s easiest schedule to date (.346). Minimize their turnaround all you want, but the Pats enter Week 13 with more than twice as many wins as they managed all of last season (4-13) and with the highest postseason probability of any AFC team (99%). Like New England, Baltimore has also taken advantage of a soft middle section of its schedule, rolling up five straight wins to oust the Steelers from atop the AFC North. How the Ravens fare over three consecutive division contests — they face Cincinnati twice, with Round 1 being on Thanksgiving, and Pittsburgh — could solidify their division standing and nudge them up a slot in the conference … … Over third-placed Indianapolis, which might come to rue the Chiefs’ 14-point rally when January arrives. The Colts’ eight total wins afford them a bit of breathing room, but their remaining schedule sure doesn’t; it’s the second hardest, behind Green Bay. With two games apiece against Houston and Jacksonville sandwiching matchups with Seattle and San Francisco, the Colts are set to face playoff contenders in each of their final six games. Brutal. Unlike the Broncos’ week off, the Bolts’ bye was more of a mixed bag. L.A. moved up from No. 6 to No. 5 in the overall standings (good!), but its postseason probability dropped by 2 points (bad!). And the three teams that entered the weekend ahead of the Chargers — the Bills, Colts and Steelers — all lost (good!), but the four teams directly behind them — the Chiefs, Jaguars, Ravens and Texans — all won (bad!). L.A. will face the Raiders next (nice!), followed by back-to-back meetings with last year’s Super Bowl teams (yikes!). Seems fitting that the Chargers currently sit with about a 50-50 chance of qualifying for the tourney. NFC Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %1. Rams (9-2) >99% >99% 97% 54%2. Eagles (8-3) 99% >99% 97% 21%3. Bears (8-3) 59% 76% 53% 3%4. Buccaneers (6-5) 83% 89% 77% <1%5. Seahawks (8-3) 91% 95% 78% 10%6. Packers (7-3-1) 78% 92% 69% 3%7. 49ers (8-4) 86% 93% 77% 3% The first game of Week 13 — Packers at Lions on Thanksgiving — is also one of the most consequential, with the two NFC North teams combining for a conference-high 49 points in playoff leverage. Whoever wins would become a near lock for the tournament and could even vault to the top of the NFC North leaderboard by Friday evening, should the Bears fall to the Eagles. If the Packers were to lose, they’d drop out of the seven-team field entirely, though they could reappear as soon as Sunday afternoon if the Browns upset the Niners. And if the Lions were to lose, they’d remain on the outside looking in for another week — with a few more hurdles standing between them and a postseason slot. What a way to kick off the holiday, huh? OK, that was a lot of scenario-speak. Let’s switch gears to something more concrete … The Rams’ overall record and place in the NFC standings finally reflect what has been true for weeks now: L.A. is the class of the conference (and arguably the league). If not for a couple of untimely special teams debacles, Sean McVay’s squad might be undefeated. They’ve rattled off six in a row with a ridiculous 18.5-point average margin of victory. And it’s not like the dubs have come against a bunch of tomato cans: Neither the Bucs, 49ers nor the Jags — all currently in the playoff picture — stood a chance in their recent meetings with L.A., losing by a combined 71 points. With a win in Carolina this weekend, McVay would capture yet another first in his illustrious coaching career: a perfect November. That might not seem like a significant milestone, but Rams fans will know that the month (for whatever reason) has dogged the Super Bowl champion since he first donned the headset in 2017 (.429 win percentage prior to this season). If only someone had seen a 5-0 November coming … Although the Rams are now the overwhelming favorite to clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed (54%), they still have a few tough tests ahead of them — like having to face the Lions and Seahawks over a five-day period in mid-December. And, of course, they still have to out-win the Eagles, who hold the head-to-head tie-breaker, thanks to one of the Rams’ kicking miscues (two, actually). … Speaking of the Eagles … they flirted with disaster over the past couple of weeks, and on Sunday, calamity finally caught up with Nick Sirianni’s club. Although the loss at Dallas didn’t put a dent in Philly’s overall postseason probability, it did slash the team’s odds of capturing a playoff bye (from 41% to 21%). It also raised the stakes on an already massive matchup with the third-seeded Bears, who, at 59 percent, are still less likely than both Green Bay (No. 6, 78%) and Detroit (No. 8, 75%) to even secure a playoff berth. A Bears win at Philadelphia on Friday would go a long way toward quieting the chatter about the quality of competition Chicago has faced thus far. Stop me if you’ve heard this NFC North tale before … Sharp offensive mind teams with maligned QB to execute an impressive single-season turnaround, going 6-1 in one-score games through Week 12 while battling with the Packers and Lions for division supremacy. Meanwhile, the group’s also-ran resides at 4-7 overall after suffering several late-game letdowns. Yep, the Bears and Vikings have essentially switched places. Chicago fans have to hope the fourth-quarter magic that Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams have discovered doesn’t suddenly disappear like it did for Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold in Minnesota last year. Seattle hasn’t locked anything up yet, but with a 91 percent probability, the ‘Hawks remain on track to clinch their first postseason berth since 2022. Week 16’s Thursday-nighter versus L.A. looms large on the horizon, with the outcome potentially influencing playoff seeding, home-field advantage and the NFC’s first-round bye. Seattle will, of course, have to keep pace with L.A. in the meantime for that matchup to be as meaningful then as it appears now.Which teams are on the playoff bubble? AFC Bubble teams Playoff % If Win If Lose8. Texans(6-5) 43% 64% 32%9. Steelers (6-5) 38% 52% 29%10. Chiefs (6-5) 52% 61% 35% The Steelers’ loss to the Bears didn’t end up being as damaging to their playoff hopes as the model projected, with Pittsburgh’s postseason probability sitting at 38%, which, while still unsettling, is just 1 point lower than it was last Tuesday and 7 points higher than the model’s “If Lose” projection going into Week 12. The Steelers hit Thanksgiving Week as the least likely of the 10 legitimate AFC contenders to clinch a playoff berth. But those odds could change drastically if they can beat the Bills this weekend. Like Pittsburgh, Buffalo has similarly been all over the map since October (figuratively, not literally). Kansas City still has plenty of work to do to get off the fringe and into the frame, but Sunday’s comeback over the Colts was a tremendous first step. The Chiefs’ next hurdle involves a trip to Dallas on Thanksgiving, followed by tilts against the Texans and Chargers — who are among the teams standing between K.C. and a wild-card berth — in back-to-back weeks. With prior losses to the sixth-seeded Jaguars and seventh-seeded Bills working against them, the Chiefs simply cannot afford any stumbles. Chiefs fans will be doubling as Steelers supporters this weekend, which I realize might seem counterintuitive if you’re looking solely at the standings above. But Kansas City needs as many of the seven-win teams to lose as possible, and the Chargers (vs. Raiders) and Jaguars (at Titans) will likely be heavy favorites in their respective matchups. Houston hopes to be part of that 7-5 club, too, after visiting Indy on Sunday. If the Texans can extend their win streak to four, they’re projected to see the biggest jump in playoff probability (21 points) of any team this week. NFC Bubble teams Playoff % If Win If Lose8. Lions (7-4) 75% 86% 60%9. Panthers (6-6) 15% 25% 12% I’ve already outlined what Detroit has riding on its battle with Green Bay on Thursday, so I won’t rehash all that again. But I did want to spotlight the absolute chaos that is the Lions’ postseason outlook: They are the only NFC team with at least a 5 percent playoff probability in five or more NFC playoff slots. No. 1 seed: 3% | No. 2: 10% | No. 3: 19% | No. 4: 2% | No. 5: 5% | No. 6: 14% | No. 7: 22% So you’re saying there’s a chance … (Teams with less than 10% probability to earn a playoff spot.) AFC fringe teams Playoff % If Win If Lose11. Dolphins (4-7) <1% 1% <1%12. Bengals (3-8) <1% 1% 0%13. Browns (3-8) <1% <1% 0%14. Raiders (2-9) 0% 0% 0%15. Jets (2-9) 0% 0% 0%16. Titans (1-10) 0% 0% 0% Despite not even stepping on a football field last Sunday, Miami saw the return of the pesky “<” next to its playoff probability. The Fins can thank New England’s 10th win for that. Their next two matchups are against the Saints and Jets, which means it’s possible Miami could still be playing meaningful football when the team visits Pittsburgh in mid-December. But several solid squads would have to come completely unglued for the Dolphins’ season to survive beyond that point. Cleveland’s spirited effort in Vegas on Sunday earned the Browns at least another week of viability. It also landed them one more playoff berth in the NGS model than they had last week (they make it in 6 of 10,000 simulations vs. 5). Tennessee’s final thread could be snipped as soon as Sunday afternoon. The Titans face a couple of different elimination scenarios in Week 13, but the simplest (and most likely) involves them picking up loss No. 11 vs. Jacksonville. NFC fringe teams Playoff % If Win If Lose10. Cowboys (5-5-1) 9% 15% 4%11. Falcons (4-7) 2% 4% <1%12. Vikings (4-7) <1% 3% <1%13. Cardinals (3-8) <1% <1% 0%14. Commanders (3-8) <1% <1% <1%15. Saints (2-9) <1% <1% <1% The Cowboys only have one game left against a team currently above them in the NFC standings (Detroit in Week 14), limiting their opportunities to gain immediate ground in the wild-card race. But IF the Cowboys control what they can control over the next two Thursdays, it’s possible they’ll be right back in the mix headed into the final four weeks of the season, especially if the Packers’ opponents cooperate: Lions get to 8-5 by beating Green Bay and then losing to Dallas.Cowboys get to 7-5-1 by beating Kansas City this Thursday and Detroit next Thursday.Packers get to 7-5-1 by losing to Detroit and then Chicago. Eliminated16. New York Giants (2-10) After their win over the Colts, the Chiefs (still out of the playoffs in real life) are the betting markets 3rd-favorite to win the Super Bowl per ESPN Bet: Los Angeles Rams +450Philadelphia Eagles +600Kansas City Chiefs +900Seattle Seahawks 10-1Indianapolis Colts 11-1Baltimore Ravens 11-1Buffalo Bills 11-1Detroit Lions 11-1New England Patriots 13-1Denver Broncos 13-1Green Bay Packers 15-1San Francisco 49ers 35-1Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35-1Los Angeles Chargers 40-1Houston Texans 40-1Chicago Bears 50-1Jacksonville Jaguars 60-1Pittsburgh Steelers 100-1Dallas Cowboys 100-1Carolina Panthers 200-1 |
| 2026 DRAFTNick Baumgardner of The Athletic with a Mini-Mock, he gives us 1 to 10: With six weeks to go in the regular season, The Athletic’s NFL Simulator now gives the Tennessee Titans a 46 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick for a second consecutive draft, followed by the Las Vegas Raiders (17 percent) and New York Jets (15 percent). We take a look at how the top 10 picks could unfold. 1. Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese, edge, Ohio StateReese has split his time almost evenly between playing in the box and on the edge this season, and he’s been equally destructive across the board. This is the 2026 NFL Draft’s best Micah Parsons clone. The data is limited, but Reese’s ceiling looks incredible. 2. Las Vegas Raiders: Keldric Faulk, edge, AuburnBased on traits (and position) alone, we probably can’t take Faulk out of the No. 1 pick discussion. Theoretically, the 6-foot-6, 270-pounder can do it all, from zero- to nine-technique. Faulk is a very young player with immense potential, so his pre-draft process could be huge. QB is also a possibility for the Raiders, but I’m not ready just yet to slot one in the top five. 3. New York Jets: Caleb Downs, DB, Ohio StateThe Jets need everything. So, although Downs — a safety by trade who can play corner, slot or even sub linebacker — might scare people from a positional-value standpoint, he is still my favorite player, pound for pound, in the class. He’s a potential culture-changer. 4. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain Jr., edge, MiamiBain (6-3, 275) can be a tough evaluation. He still runs pretty hot and cold from a consistency standpoint, but he has an argument as the best edge in this class when the green light is on. The Raiders, Saints and Jets all could be in the QB market, so Ty Simpson, Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore remain on the board here, too. 5. New York Giants: Spencer Fano, OT, UtahFano’s athletic potential keeps him as OT1 for now. If you want to see how big of an impact he can have, go watch Utah’s recent 51-47 win over Kansas State. The Utes ran 50 times for 292 yards, with plenty of those attempts coming right behind their star junior. 6. Arizona Cardinals: Ty Simpson, QB, AlabamaIt’s going to be another wild winter/spring cycle for prospective NFL quarterbacks. Simpson has been the best processor in the class, by a bit, but this is still just his first season as a starter. A long playoff run could go a long way here. 7. Washington Commanders: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio StateI’ve had Jordyn Tyson as my WR1 for most of the season, and though I’m still a huge fan, it’s important to note he’s not a lock to claim that spot. Tyson has missed a lot of time in his career because of injury, including this season. It’s not unlike Puka Nacua’s situation coming out of BYU. Tate, meantime, has been a revelation for the Buckeyes. He gets better every time out. 8. Cleveland Browns: Fernando Mendoza, QB, IndianaAs with Simpson, a big playoff run against top-end defenses could go a long way toward easing some of the inconsistency/lack of data questions scouts have about Mendoza. Both quarterbacks feel like high-floor passers — they might not rewrite the NFL record book, but they’ll absolutely play winning football. 9. Minnesota Vikings: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre DameThere will be a number of conversations about areas of need if Minnesota finishes the year in the top 10, as J.J. McCarthy’s hardly having a great time right now. For my money, Love is your 2025 Heisman winner. An elite football player, Love — like Downs — is worth the positional-value debates. 10. Miami Dolphins: Francis Mauigoa, OT, MiamiFrom Miami to … Miami. This would be a great fit, not only because the Dolphins remain absolutely desperate for more toughness in the trenches on both sides of the football, but also because Mauigoa is exactly the type of culture-setter who could help give Miami’s locker room an actual identity. |
