THE DAILY BRIEFING
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If The Season Ended Today in the AFC:
Kansas City West 9-2 1 5-2
Miami East 8-3 1 6-2
Tennessee South 7-4 1 5-3
Baltimore North 7-4 1 4-3
Buffalo WC1 8-3 2 5-2
Cincinnati WC2 7-4 2 4-3
NY Jets WC3 7-4 3 5-4
New England 6-5 4 5-2
LA Chargers 6-5 2 4-3
The seven playoff teams would seem to be coming from these nine.
There are five teams at 4-7 or 4-7-1.
Three big AFC games in Week 18 – Baltimore at Cincinnati (1st meeting to Bengals) and Patriots at Bills and Jets at Dolphins. We would think the Week 18 Sunday night game will be one of those three.
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As far as Week 14 goes, Patrick Mahomes loses a Sunday night showcase as the NFL punts their game at Denver to the daytime. Miami at the Chargers is flexed in.
Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com says the Chargers may be getting a primetime game in Week 14, but they are likely to lose one in Week 16:
After the Broncos signed Russell Wilson, the NFL scheduled them for five primetime games. They have played four of those, but with a 3-8 record and the worst scoring offense in the league, the Broncos won’t play the fifth.
The NFL flexed out of the Week 14 game between the Chiefs and Broncos on Sunday Night Football.
That game was rescheduled to a 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff.
Instead, the Dolphins and Chargers will play on Sunday Night Football on Dec. 11. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET.
It will be the Dolphins’ third primetime game and the fifth for the Chargers. The Chargers also have a Monday Night Football game on Dec. 26 and currently are scheduled for a New Year’s Day game against the Rams on Sunday Night Football. That game could be flexed with the Rams currently 3-8.
We would think Jets at Seattle (now a 4:05 affair on FOX) might be the replacement for Chargers at Rams.
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NFC NORTH
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DETROIT
Nick Baumgardner and Colton Pouncey of The Athletic play around with the Lions 2023 draft:
They’re all important. But for Lions GM Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell, the 2023 NFL Draft will be really important.
The Lions are 4-7 in the duo’s second season in Detroit. And while parts of this rebuild — which was a total teardown, to the studs — have been more challenging than others, it’s hard not to see some fruit from the evaluation/developmental labor of the front office and coaching staff. The Lions are playing better defense, led by young draft picks like Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, Kerby Joseph and Malcolm Rodriguez. The offense’s identity is rooted in the run game, anchored by offensive tackle Penei Sewell, the first pick of the Holmes-Campbell era.
We’ll see what the next six games look like for Detroit and where its needs shift as we get deeper into the winter. It’s not ridiculous to suggest the Lions will head into 2023 with a roster capable of turning a corner, but with a quarterback situation that’s hardly ideal. For Holmes, this draft is huge because, for the third straight spring, he’ll have the picks necessary to trade up for the QB of his choice, if he wants. The window to be able to do that — without cutting into the Lions’ foundation — likely closes for Detroit after this draft. So, it’s a big one.
We took some time to work out four 2023 mock draft scenarios for the Lions, looking only at their picks from rounds 1-3 for this exercise. Here’s what we found, using Pro Football Network’s mock draft simulator. Draft positions were based on team records as of Saturday. Sunday’s NFL results did alter the board, but as we await a “Monday Night Football” game between the 3-7 Steelers and 4-6-1 Colts, things could change again fast. Today’s mock still provides a generalized idea of what Lions fans might expect from the team’s picks.
A: No trades, just pick the best guy
6 Kelee Ringo CB Georgia
12 Trenton Simpson LB Clemson
43 Darnell Washington TE Georgia
62 Jarrett Patterson OG Notre Dame
74 Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee
Baumgardner: OK, Colton, for this one we forced ourselves to just go with the best player available at each pick. We didn’t completely disregard need here; this isn’t 2021 — the Lions are now in a place as a roster, we think, where they can be more selective.
However, when taking a quarterback in the first round isn’t mandatory, the options with two picks in the top 15 are pretty insane. We had Kelee Ringo on the board at No. 6, but we also had Clemson defensive tackle Bryan Bresee — and there were still good corner options for us at No. 12 if that was our desired position. Your thoughts, Colton?
Pouncy: It definitely made for an interesting discussion. I wouldn’t argue Bresee at No. 6, only because of the cornerback options that should be there at No. 12 (Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr., South Carolina’s Cam Smith). But I like the idea of going for the top option in Ringo and knowing you’re going to come back with another top defensive choice later on. I think we did that taking Trenton Simpson, the top linebacker in the class, at 12. That’s a solid foundation going defense-defense with the two firsts, and it opened things up for us to work back to some offensive guys in the second and third.
Baumgardner: Yeah, I really like the potential fit of Ringo with Aaron Glenn and the rest of Detroit’s defensive personnel. If the Rams continue to go south, the Lions are in great shape to snag a good corner early here. I also can’t stop thinking about all the different things Simpson could do for this defense.
We’ve talked about him a bit as a Micah Parsons-type athlete who has the ability to play in the stack, but he can also get in a stance and just beat tackles off the edge. He is a havoc-maker. If the Lions aren’t going QB early, this type of 1-2 punch feels almost perfect.
Also: We looked at RB for Nos. 43, 62 and 74 and wound up finding something better each time. I think Darnell Washington (6-7, 270, physically dominant) would be the ideal tight end-type Campbell wants to invest in. And, Colton: Hendon Hooker. We really don’t know how much his knee injury will impact his stock, but if he’s available at the end of day three and you’re the Lions … that feels like a set of dice worth rolling, no?
Pouncy: No doubt. One of our debates was Washington vs. Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs. I’m not sure Gibbs would even be there at 43, but this RB class is deep. Getting Washington, a solid guard prospect in Jarrett Patterson who could step into a starting job eventually, as well as Hooker feels like the sort of haul the Lions should target. Hooker, in particular, is fascinating. I don’t love his age — he’ll be a 25-year-old rookie — but getting him in the third round feels right. He won’t be forced into a QB competition, especially coming off the knee injury. If he turns into something, great. If not, you aren’t attached to him like a first-round guy.
B: No trades, draft a QB in first round
6 Will Levis QB Kentucky
12 Joey Porter Jr. CB Penn State
43 Siaki Ika DT Baylor
62 Tucker Kraft TE South Dakota State
74 Sean Tucker RB Syracuse
Baumgardner: The rule we gave ourselves here was that we had to use one of these first two picks — no trades — on a quarterback. The basis of our conversation centered on the idea that we would be able to find quality corners in the teens … but if we wanted to draft a quarterback in the first and Will Levis was there, did it make sense to wait?
That’s the big question. Levis is a traits-heavy prospect who will need a lot of further evaluation. If I had to make a prediction today, I’d say he’s unlikely to drop out of the first round, and I could definitely see a scenario where he’s off the board in the top 10 or a team trades into the top five for him. He’s a polarizing prospect, though.
Your thoughts on Levis, Colton, and how this all worked out in general?
Pouncy: Levis just feels like a guy who’s gonna throw an off-balance deep ball to a wide-open receiver in front of every scout in the league and impress enough to be taken in the top 10. He’s got that kind of arm talent. Same time, as you mentioned, he’s polarizing. He needs a lot of work, so the argument here could be take him for his traits, keep Jared Goff around and let Levis develop until he’s ready to go. But you do run the risk of passing up talented players for the sake of finding the guy at QB. That’s part of the game. As for others, I like coming right back and taking one of the top corners in Porter at 12.
Baumgardner: Florida’s Anthony Richardson is the other QB to consider in this scenario, if he declares for the draft. He’s a 6-4, 230-pound athlete with a massive arm and a ton of running ability. He’s more traits-based right now than Levis, though. And Levis — for all his warts — is closer to ready than many give him credit for.
Two other notes: We talked about the guard class in rounds two and three in both of the first two scenarios. And our conclusion is that after Kansas State’s Cooper Beebe (who continues to come off the board before the Lions pick in the second) and Patterson, things dip a bit. So, it might be best to wait.
We also discussed running back. There are no guarantees on D’Andre Swift’s future in Detroit. Colton, talk to us about that — and a little about Syracuse’s Sean Tucker, who is not boring.
Pouncy: Beebe went 61st (one pick before we took Patterson) in the first mock, but we were still able to scoop up a quality guard there. They were both gone this time around. Not ideal, but no need to force things. Tucker Kraft is intriguing at tight end.
Running back is tempting. Jamaal Williams is a free agent and Swift hasn’t looked the same after dealing with ankle/shoulder injuries. Not to mention his deal is up after the 2023 season. I think the Lions would be pleased with Tucker’s performance, but I also think Holmes and company could land a decent prospect later on, or even next year, if they want.
C: Trade up for No. 1 overall
1 Bryce Young QB Alabama
12 Joey Porter Jr. CB Penn State
74 Lukas Van Ness Edge Iowa
Lions trade Nos. 6, 44, 62 and a 2024 second to Houston for No. 1 overall
Baumgardner: If the Lions are in love with a quarterback and want to go all-in to get him, this is what that would cost. This is also what the top half of Detroit’s 2023 draft would more or less look like after such a trade, with projections based on the 2023 model of Rich Hill’s draft value chart. So, not exact, but you get the idea.
We both agree that Bryce Young is QB1 in this draft. But, obviously, the pressure cranks up to get everything else right the rest of the way. We could’ve traded both firsts and the cost would’ve been less in terms of the number of picks, but our shot at another premium player would’ve been gone.
Colton, your thoughts on something like this?
Pouncy: Steep price, but that’s what it would take to get a guy like Young. The Lions will have to determine what the future holds at quarterback. In this scenario, they’ve determined that Goff isn’t their guy and traded up to find one. Young, to me, is the top QB prospect because of his ability to create. The only real knock on Young is his size, but I’m willing to bet on him succeeding in this league. The idea of adding him to a young, developing team with the pieces already in place (Young to Jameson Williams worked out pretty well in college) is intriguing. Not to mention, we fill another need by getting Porter at 12.
A trade like this means fewer chances to fix the roster, but the Lions potentially get an upgrade at the game’s most important position if Young cements himself. High risk, high reward type of move.
Baumgardner: Exactly. And, for me, if you’re all-in on a quarterback in this class, this is the move you make. We’ll break down what I’d call the “situational trade-up” scenario here in a minute: But this is the move that assures a team it’ll get the player it wants no matter what.
This is really only on the table if Detroit ends the season in a place where it believes A) the top quarterback in this draft (Young in our case) is capable of starting and holding water as a rookie and B) the rest of the roster is ready for a playoff push. We’ll see where the Lions are with regard to that second question in the next few months.
But this situation shouldn’t be ruled out. Not until someone else’s name goes on the clock at No. 1 next spring.
D: Trade up into the top 3
3 C.J. Stroud QB Ohio State
12 Bryan Bresee DL Clemson
44 Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi State
62 Jarrett Patterson OG Notre Dame
Lions trade Nos. 6 and 74 to Chicago for No. 3
Baumgardner: The “situational” trade. In this hypothetical, Young is gone and Will Anderson Jr. is off the board at No. 2. Our hypothetical version of Holmes loves Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and pulls the trigger here. As you can see, the cost to move up is nowhere near as steep as it was to move up to No. 1.
There’s a chance, of course, the Texans stick at No. 1 and are in love with Stroud. There’s also a chance it’s Young. I’m not personally ready to declare myself in the “I’d be OK if the Lions traded up to draft Stroud” camp. I’m there with Young. I’m not with Stroud.
In any event, this is what that situation could look like. Colton, your thoughts?
Pouncy: In a perfect world, the Texans take Stroud at 1, Anderson or Carter goes No. 2 and Young is there at No. 3 with the Lions lurking and Bears looking to acquire more draft capital. But Stroud is still worth a discussion here. You have to think Holmes would consider it. I feel a lot more comfortable only giving No. 74 to potentially acquire your quarterback of the future. That feels like a no-brainer in a lot ways.
At No. 12, we went with Bresee instead of a corner just to change things up a bit. Pairing him with McNeill could be fun. Not to mention getting a corner in Emmanuel Forbes and a future starting guard in Patterson, who was once again there for the taking at 62. This scenario nets you your quarterback while also keeping enough assets to fill holes.
Nick, your thoughts?
Baumgardner: This only happens if all the stars line up. But, obviously, if you have something like this on the table come draft day, you do it. We talked quite a bit in 2021 about the possibility of something like this happening during Holmes’ first draft. And it kind of did with Justin Fields falling, though the Lions were obviously firm in their decision to build the offensive line first. I had no problem with that then, and still don’t now.
But the Lions’ roster is now at the point where if Holmes is going to pull the trigger to go and get his guy, this is the year to do it. I wouldn’t advise waiting and seeing what happens toward the top of the board next year. The time for a move like that is now.
Baumgardner: Overall final thoughts, Colton? If I had to pick between any of these scenarios, I think it’d be A or C. The last one doesn’t give me the QB I want, C does — but A might actually be the scenario I’m most comfortable with today. You wait on a quarterback, but you don’t leave Friday without one. Ask me this question again in January (no, really, please do) and we’ll see if my answer is the same.
Pouncy: The debate right now is this: Would drafting a QB set back a team that looks like it might be able to compete sooner rather than later if it addresses other needs? Goff isn’t winning the Lions games but he’s not losing them, either. So, then, how long would it take that quarterback to be playing at a level better than Goff? And would making a move for a guy like Young stop them from adding pieces that could jumpstart a defense that so desperately needs talent?
I don’t mind C. You lose some ability to fill multiple needs but you potentially get QB1. D isn’t bad either, especially if it allows you to keep your two second-rounders. Still, I tend to lean toward A. You get a hell of a haul, while also getting a mid-round QB to develop behind Goff. Feels like a win-win. Of course, a lot of this depends on how Goff finishes the year. He can’t implode down the stretch, and if he does, this discussion becomes a lot easier.
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GREEN BAY
It’s QB AARON RODGERS this week for Green Bay, but QB JORDAN LOVE did himself some good late in Sunday’s game with the Eagles. Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:
It doesn’t take long to go through Jordan Love’s performance — play by play, throw by throw — from Sunday’s relief appearance against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Green Bay Packers’ backup quarterback took only 10 snaps, nine of which were throws.
But there was so much that coach Matt LaFleur liked in there that for the first time since Love arrived in Green Bay more than 2½ years ago, there’s reason to wonder whether he would be the better choice this week for the Packers at quarterback.
Not because of a decline in Aaron Rodgers, who was equally as effective against the Eagles before he left with a rib injury late in the third quarter. But rather because a healthy Love might be better a option than a banged-up Rodgers, who also has a seven-week old thumb injury in addition to his rib issue.
However, that became a moot point because Rodgers said Tuesday on the Pat McAfee Show that he got good news after his tests and plans to play Sunday at the Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET, Fox).
LaFleur made it clear that as long as Rodgers is healthy, it’s his team to quarterback. But at the same time, he detailed what he liked about what Love did in the fourth quarter.
“We feel confident in what we know of Jordan and got a lot of confidence in him,” LaFleur said. “I think his teammates have a lot of confidence in him, as well, and I think that was evident in how they all went out there and executed.”
The highlight, of course, was Love’s 63-yard touchdown to Christian Watson, who did most of the work after the catch.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
Sunday’s aeronautical adventure that involved Florida authorities does not seem to have cooled the ardor for WR ODELL BECKHAM, Jr. Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News:
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said Tuesday that he is not concerned about free agent wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. visiting the Giants and Buffalo Bills before he heads to Dallas as early as next Monday.
“Not at all,” Jones told 105.3 The Fan in Dallas. “As a matter of fact, if you look at what precedes us before you get here, so to speak — physically, coming to visit — I like that. As to other teams, we don’t have anything to take a step back on there.
“And of course, I know what this area is,” the Texas salesman at heart continued. “I know what the Dallas area is. I know what football means to this area. I do know that we’re the most visible team. From that standpoint, there’s a lot of interest in it. Everybody likes to be a part of something that’s substantive, and that’s the Cowboys.”
Like the Giants, Jones said Beckham’s removal from a Miami airplane on Sunday did not change his plans to recruit OBJ.
“No. It did not,” Jones said. “His overall team compatibility, his judgment, his behavior is not an issue with him. It is with many, but not with him.”
Jones said he has found Beckham “very genuine” and “very competitive” in their frequent recent conversations, including a Thanksgiving Day call before the Cowboys dismantled the Giants.
“[He] feels confident, feels good about himself,” Jones said. “I think he breeds confidence. [He’s] very, very compatible. We think he can fit in really good with us.”
Jones said he “may have intermittent conversations” with Beckham throughout this week leading up to an in-person visit with the Cowboys that will happen “as soon as Monday.”
Beckham is scheduled to visit the Giants on Thursday and Friday to kick off this last leg of his free-agent tour.
The Cowboys’ owner stressed that Dallas needs Beckham healthy and productive now in order for him to be a fit. Because Jones is expecting a deep playoff run for his team.
But the Cowboys’ stressed that Dallas needs Beckham healthy and productive now in order for him to be a fit. Because Jones is expecting a deep playoff run for his team.
“We have to have this year,” Jones said. “It’s very important. The things we do are to have him impact this year. This year, of course, has to be a big part of it. We have six regular-season games and the playoffs. We’ve got in my mind almost the whole show ahead of us. We’ve got to have a situation where he can really contribute now.”
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PHILADELPHIA
Hopefully, this injury for CB CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON isn’t as bad as it sounds. Tim McManus of ESPN.com:
Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson will be sidelined indefinitely with a lacerated kidney, a league source confirmed.
A decision on whether to place him on injured reserve has not yet been made, the source added, as they work to establish a timetable for his return.
Gardner-Johnson was injured late in the first quarter of the Eagles’ Sunday night game against the Packers following a collision across the middle with Green Bay receiver Christian Watson. He was doubled over in pain as he left the field before being carted inside and did not return to the game.
Gardner-Johnson was replaced in the lineup by undrafted rookie Reed Blankenship, who intercepted Aaron Rodgers in the red zone early in the second quarter of the Eagles’ 40-33 victory.
NFL Network was first to report on Gardner-Johnson’s injury.
Blankenship earned a spot on the team after a strong summer and filled in admirably Sunday night. Still, the loss of Gardner-Johnson is a significant one for the Eagles. He is the league leader in interceptions with six, serving as one of the top playmakers for an Eagles defense that is No. 1 in the NFL in takeaways with 23.
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NFC SOUTH
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ATLANTA
TE KYLE PITTS is done for the year. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
Unfortunately for the Falcons, Kyle Pitts‘ second season has come to a premature end.
Via multiple reporters, head coach Arthur Smith said the young tight end will be out for the rest of the season after undergoing a knee procedure this week.
Pitts went on injured reserve with a reported torn MCL on Nov. 21. Pitts’ recovery time was to be determined by the outcome of the surgery.
“Nothing that concerns us going into 2023,” Smith said of Pitts, via Tori McElhaney of the team’s website.
Atlanta’s passing offense has generally been down in 2022 after transitioning from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota at quarterback. But Pitts’ production in particular took a hit.
After recording 68 catches for 1,026 yards as a rookie in 2021, Pitts finishes 2022 with just 28 receptions for 356 yards with two touchdowns. His yards per reception went down from 15.1 to 12.7, catch percentage was down from 61.8 percent to 47.5 percent, and yards per target was down from 9.3 to 6.0.
In more positive injury news, Smith said left guard Elijah Wilkinson will return to practice from injured reserve. That gives Atlanta 21 days to activate Wilkinson to the 53-man roster.
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CAROLINA
Freshly established in Lincoln, Matt Rhule has some thoughts on his time with the Panthers. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Former Panthers coach Matt Rhule isn’t upset. Or so he says.
He says other things that suggest otherwise.
Now that Rhule has an eight-year contract with Nebraska and no immediate (or long-term) plans to return to the NFL, Rhule has opted for candor, even if it’s tainted by revisionist history, regarding his time with the Panthers.
Asked during an appearance on The Season with Peter Schrager what Rhule would have done differently, he was blunt.
“I think I probably would just probably [have] taken another job,” Rhule said. “It’s a great place. Wonderful people. But I just don’t know if I was a fit there. You know, at the end of the day, you know, we talked about, ‘Hey, we’re gonna have a four-year plan, a five-year plan.’ You know, if you tell me, ‘Hey, we got a two-year plan,’ then I’m gonna go sign a bunch of free agents and do it. So what was a four-year plan became a two-year-and-five-game plan real quick.”
So, in other words, Rhule would have done better sooner if he knew he was expected to do better sooner.
“I’m not angry about it,” Rhule added. “At the end of the day, I understand. But if it’s gonna be that quick, then we’re gonna sign some more free agents, we’re gonna go make the blockbuster trade, we’re gonna do those things. I think the trajectory we were on was correct.”
It’s not like they didn’t try to make a blockbuster trade. They wanted Deshaun Watson. He didn’t want them. No accomplished veteran quarterback with options has opted for the Panthers.
Maybe it was Rhule that caused them to shy away. Maybe it was owner David Tepper. Maybe it was something else.
Regardless, Rhule’s comments ring hollow. There are no four- or five-year plans in the NFL, and the Panthers were indeed trying to get the difference makers that would help them win now. They just couldn’t make it happen.
The more likely truth is that Rhule opted not for the security of a supposed four- or five-year plan but for the money that Tepper was paying. The Giants, who also wanted Rhule, wouldn’t even consider matching the seven-year, $62 million package that Tepper gave Rhule.
That’s ultimately what got Rhule to take the job. Maybe he regrets prioritizing money over the potential for winning. Maybe he regrets working for Tepper, who seems to be inclined to meddle more than most owners.
Regardless, the idea that Rhule regrets taking the job because he thought he’d get four or five years to show real progress is hard to swallow, given that the NFL no longer works this way — and hasn’t for decades.
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NFC WEST
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SAN FRANCISCO
We see that former QB David Carr, writing at NFL.com, will provide us with three teams that should want to sign QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO for 2023. Our guesses – Buccaneers, Saints, Rams. Let’s find out.
After Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2, Garoppolo was thrust back into the QB1 role. Since retaking the reins, he has posted a 6-3 record, completing 67.4 percent of his throws while posting a sparkling 16:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With a marquee matchup on tap against the explosive Dolphins this coming Sunday, the 49ers sit atop the NFC West at 7-4. During San Francisco’s current four-game win streak, Jimmy G has thrown seven touchdown passes and — most importantly — zero interceptions.
“I think Jimmy’s doing a great job,” Kyle Shanahan told reporters after Garoppolo logged four TD passes in the 49ers’ Week 11 beatdown of the Cardinals in Mexico City. “I think Jimmy always has. When Jimmy’s been healthy out there, we’ve had our guys around him, I think he plays at a very high level. And I think he did that today as good as he has. Very fortunate to have him.”
Now, Garoppolo’s restructured one-year deal includes a clause that precludes San Francisco from applying the franchise tag on the quarterback after this season. Consequently, no matter how far the suddenly-surging Niners go in the remainder of this season, Jimmy G is poised to hit free agency in March.
So, which teams should be in the market for Garoppolo in the coming offseason? The former Tom Brady understudy is a proven winner with a 39-17 career record and postseason experience. I think two types of teams could be in play for the 31-year-old passer: those who believe they are a QB away from contending for a title and those in need of a bridge quarterback.
As of now, Garoppolo will be one of the more desirable quarterbacks on the market this offseason. Here are three organizations that should pursue him this offseason.
San Francisco 49ers
7-4 · 1st in NFC West
Would it be the worst idea for the 49ers to just keep Jimmy G in the Bay Area? Sure doesn’t seem like it — not after watching how this season has played out.
Currently working his way back from a fractured ankle, Lance has just four NFL starts under his belt. And the 22-year-old still looked pretty raw when he began this season as The Guy in San Francisco. Therefore, from the Niners’ perspective, it could make plenty of sense for general manager John Lynch to re-sign the proven veteran with six years of experience in Kyle Shanahan’s offense to a one- or two-year deal. After all, Garoppolo has a 37-17 regular-season record and 4-2 postseason mark under Shanahan. He’s comfortable in the system and has built a rapport with his supporting cast. With what we’ve seen over the last month, there’s reason to believe the 49ers could go on another run this January with an absolutely loaded offense and DeMeco Ryans’ lights-out defense.
However, it won’t be as easy to bring him back this time around. With Garoppolo set to hit the open market, other teams will be interested in paying him starter money, perhaps on a longer-term deal.
New York Jets
7-4 · 3rd in AFC East
The Jets feel like a no-brainer here, with strong 49ers connections for head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. In fact, LaFleur worked very closely with Garoppolo as passing game coordinator in San Francisco from 2017 to 2020, so the veteran signal-caller would have an easy transition in terms of scheme and terminology — an aspect coaching staffs take into great consideration when signing a quarterback. Plus, the Jets are built much like the 49ers with a good offensive line, promising run game and playmakers on the perimeter, so it’s fair to think Jimmy G can win in New York.
Now, let’s address the elephant in the room: Zach Wilson. The second-year quarterback was benched last week for fifth-year pro Mike White, but Saleh was adamant about Wilson still having a future with the Jets. Both White and Joe Flacco are set to hit free agency in March, which would open space in the Jets’ QB room. Garoppolo’s presence in New York would likely mean a QB competition in training camp. Honestly, this could create a great opportunity for both Garoppolo and Wilson, with Jimmy G hungry to remain a starter and Wilson, who could learn a lot from the vet, eager to prove the Jets did the right thing when drafting him No. 2 overall. Though Wilson might have a higher ceiling, Garoppolo’s veteran savvy and experience in the system would give him a good chance to win the starting job for a young team on the rise.
New Orleans Saints
4-8 · T-3rd in NFC South
The Saints were also one of my fits for Garoppolo in last year’s version of this article. (I bet they wish they would have taken my advice.) This season, the 4-8 team has yet to win back-to-back games, and neither Jameis Winston nor Andy Dalton has felt like the long-term answer at the game’s most important position. Winston, who re-signed with New Orleans on a two-year deal last offseason, went down in Week 3 with a back injury and hasn’t seen the field since. Given Jameis’ injury history in NOLA (his 2021 season abruptly ended on Halloween with a torn ACL) and lackluster play to start this season (4:5 TD-to-INT ratio, 79.5 passer rating), will the Saints really just look to run it back with the soon-to-be 29-year-old in 2023? Meanwhile, Dalton’s set to hit free agency after this season.
Garoppolo would be a good option for a Saints offense that brings back a majority of its core in 2023, including key starters along the offensive line, Alvin Kamara and rookie stud Chris Olave. We’ve seen how productive and efficient Garoppolo can be with playmakers around him.
One big problem, though: The Saints have the worst salary cap situation in the NFL.
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AFC NORTH
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CINCINNATI
When Bengals WR TYLER BOYD looks at QB JOE BURROW and Chiefs QB PATRICK MAHOMES, he sees Peyton Manning and Tom Brady for our time. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Chiefs and Bengals meet on Sunday in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game, and a meeting of two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd thinks that quarterback matchup makes this game something truly special.
Boyd compared Burrow and Mahomes to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who faced off 12 times in the regular season and five times in the AFC playoffs.
“It’s going back to that quarterback fight. I look at it like Manning and Brady,” Boyd said, viaBengals.com. “You can’t stop them. It comes down to whoever excels and takes advantage of their opportunities in drives and scores points. These are the types of games that we have to take care of the football and not turn it over.”
Burrow and Mahomes will meet for just the third time on Sunday, so they have many years to go before their rivalry matches that of Manning and Brady. Burrow is 25 years old and Mahomes is 27, and the two play for two of the best teams in the AFC, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re meeting in a lot of big games for the next decade.
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AFC EAST
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NEW ENGLAND
QB MAC JONES is looking forward to Thursday night. Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:
The biggest game of the Patriots’ season so far is coming up on Thursday night, when they face the Bills in a game that will go a long way toward determining whether New England makes the playoffs.
“Yeah, it’s a huge game. I think Buffalo is the top, top team in the league,” Patriots quarterback Mac Jones said, via the Boston Herald. “Obviously they’re playing really well when you watch crossover film and things like that. Just a great team. We have to be able to play better to win. We know the challenge ahead.”
The Patriots haven’t faced the Bills yet this season (the second Patriots-Bills game is in Week 18), but last year Jones wasn’t able to do much against Buffalo in three opportunities: Jones only threw three passes in a win over the Bills on a windy night in Buffalo, then had a bad game in a regular-season loss to the Bills two weeks later, and another bad game in an even more lopsided loss to the Bills in the playoffs.
It’s probably safe to say that the Patriots won’t beat the Bills with Jones throwing three passes again. They need Jones to have a big game, in what is a very big game to their playoff hopes.
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THIS AND THAT
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QB CONTRACT SITUATIONS
Dan Graziano of ESPN.com looks at 12 QBs and their contracts:
The disappointing seasons the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers are having with veteran quarterbacks who signed huge contract extensions this offseason got us thinking.
What, exactly, could the Broncos do about moving on from Russell Wilson if things don’t get better? When, exactly, could they do it?
What, exactly, are the Packers’ options with Aaron Rodgers if he decides to come back, if he demands a trade, if he retires, etc.? And what’s the timetable on those?
Wilson’s and Rodgers’ deals have unique structures that make the issues thorny, but there are ways their teams can work around them if they decide they need to. I wanted to take a dive into those deals and try to explain what happens this year, next year, etc., if and when the teams decide they want out.
And then, as we got talking, we realized those aren’t the only veteran QB contracts that may not look exactly as they’ve been presented. So we added a few more interesting veteran deals and some explanations of those.
Please understand, we aren’t predicting what will happen with these teams and these quarterbacks. That depends on the results of games, the results of seasons, the wishes of the players, the health of the players, the whims of team owners… lots of stuff. This isn’t one of our predict-the-future exercises.
No, this is an examination of contract structures with an eye on how flexible some of the bigger veteran QB deals are or are not. Hopefully it helps you learn something. Enjoy
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers signed a three-year, $150 million contract extension with the Packers this past offseason that technically runs through 2026. But the 2025 and 2026 seasons are basically dummy years put in there for cap purposes, so really the deal is up after 2024. And the 2024 money doesn’t become guaranteed until the day after that year’s Super Bowl, so really the 2023 season is all they have to worry about navigating. Rodgers turns 39 this week and has pondered retirement in several recent offseasons. The Packers are still figuring out what they have in 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love. The Packers’ 2023 QB situation could go a number of different ways, which is probably why Rodgers’ contract is structured the way it is.
Rodgers is scheduled to make about $59.5 million fully guaranteed in 2023. Of that, $58.3 million is in the form of a team option bonus. If the team declines the option, that $58.3 million becomes salary and the team gets hit with a roughly $75 million salary-cap charge for Rodgers in 2023. The Packers are not going to do that. If he’s going to be on their 2023 team, they’ll exercise the option and spread the cap hit out over several years. Their cap hit for Rodgers in 2023 would then be “just” $31.6 million.
Now here’s where it gets really interesting. The deadline for picking up the option isn’t until Week 1 of the 2023 regular season, which means the Packers can delay the formal exercising of the option all throughout the summer if they feel they might end up trading him or that he might retire.
If Rodgers retires, the Packers would take on a roughly $40 million cap hit in 2023, unless they waited until after June 1 to formally process the retirement, in which case the cap hit would be about $15.8 million in 2023 and about $24.5 million in 2024.
If the Packers decide to trade Rodgers, the acquiring team would take on the 2023 salary and option decision and a cap charge of $15.8 million if they picked up the option. Their dead-money cap hit would depend on when the trade took place. If the Packers trade him before June 1, they’d take on that roughly $40 million cap hit for 2023. If they trade him after June 1, the cap hits would be $15.8 million in 2023 and $24.5 million in 2024. That’s why it makes sense to have the option deadline be so late — to give everyone time to decide what to do. If you see the Packers pick up his option early in the offseason, that’ll tell you they plan to have him on their 2023 roster. If not, they’re leaving open the possibility that he won’t be.
Releasing Rodgers would not be economically feasible, since the Packers would incur a dead-money cap hit of roughly $99 million.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Just before this season — back when things looked so, so hopeful in Denver — Wilson signed a five-year, $245 million contract extension with $124 million fully guaranteed at signing. The deal runs through 2028, but realistically the first chance the Broncos will have to get out of it will be after the 2023 season.
Wilson got a $50 million signing bonus, fully guaranteed salaries of $2 million in 2022, $8 million in 2023 and $17 million in 2024, plus a fully guaranteed $5 million roster bonus in 2022 and fully guaranteed option bonuses of $20 million in 2023 and $22 million in 2024. The option bonuses work the same way Rodgers’ 2023 option bonus does (they convert to salary if the option isn’t picked up, hence the full guarantee), except the dates for the Broncos to exercise Wilson’s options are in March of the respective offseasons of 2023 and 2024.
If the Broncos wanted to cut Wilson after this season, they’d take a dead-money cap hit of $107 million in 2023 (or, if they designated him a post-June 1 cut, $61 million in 2023 and $46 million in 2024). They also would have paid him $124 million in cash for one season. This is obviously not likely. Trading him in 2023 — especially if they could do it before exercising the option — would greatly reduce the dead-money hit, but the trick would be finding someone to take his contract after this lousy year. Also not realistic.
The 2024 offseason is a different story. If Wilson is on the roster on the fifth day of the 2024 league year, then his 2025 salary of $37 million becomes fully guaranteed. So the Broncos would have to decide, by the fifth day of the 2024 league year (presumably based on how 2023 went), whether to commit to that or cut bait. Cutting him in 2024 before the 2025 money guarantees would cost the Broncos $85 million in dead money on their 2024 cap (or, if he’s a post-June 1 cut, $35.4 million in 2024 dead money and $49.6 million in 2025 dead money). Not ideal, but with the cap expected to soar in the coming years thanks to revenue from the new TV deals, it’s not impossible either. If the Broncos are done with Wilson after 2023, it would make sense to cut him before the 2025 salary becomes guaranteed — better to have paid him $124 million for two years than $161 million for two years.
This is a huge mess, of course, for the Broncos. Wilson took a team-favorable deal in terms of the top-line average salary numbers, not insisting on matching or exceeding Aaron Rodgers’ numbers. But the deal assumed he would play well, and he obviously has not. If 2023 is as big a disappointment as 2022 has been, the Broncos can move on from Wilson and start over at QB (again) in 2024. They’d probably just have to find a quarterback really cheap.
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Carr did an “extension” last offseason that basically amounted to getting him a little boost in 2022 guarantees but otherwise was just intended to help the team spend money on other players. He got $24.9 million fully guaranteed at signing, including a $7.5 million signing bonus and a $17.4 million salary in 2022. While he technically signed through 2025, there is absolutely no guaranteed money left on his contract after this season. Moreover, the relatively small signing bonus (a rare exception for the Raiders, who historically have not liked to give signing bonuses at all) allows the Raiders to move on from Carr next offseason if they so choose without incurring much of a dead-money hit.
They will have to decide quickly. If Carr is still on the Raiders’ roster three days after the Super Bowl, his 2023 salary of $32.9 million becomes fully guaranteed, as does $7.5 million of his $41.9 million 2024 salary. If they decide to cut him before those guarantees kick in, they would carry only a $5.625 million dead-money cap charge in 2023 and would owe Carr no more cash.
If Carr is on the roster three days after the Super Bowl, the Raiders still could trade him, but they’d have to find a team willing to guarantee him $40.4 million (and potentially pay him $74.8 million) over the next two years. That team could conceivably be out there, but you have to think the Raiders would want to know that before the February date on which his 2023 guarantees trigger. By that time, the Raiders will know where they’re picking in the draft and maybe even what the chances are for a former Josh McDaniels protégé like Jimmy Garoppolo or Tom Brady playing for them in 2023. I’m not saying they will move on from Carr. I’m saying the contract says they can move on from Carr, if McDaniels wants to pick his own QB instead of build around the one he inherited when he took the job last year.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Speaking of Jimmy G, the pay cut he took to stay on the 49ers’ roster this summer means he’s making $7 million this year. But the deal included a no-franchise tag provision, which means Garoppolo will be a true free agent when the season is over. The Niners could sign him to an extension before the start of the league year if they want to keep him off the open market, but he wouldn’t have to stay with them. If he keeps playing as well as he is right now and the Niners make noise in the postseason, you have to think Garoppolo will find an interesting market at age 31.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Murray signed a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension last summer with $103.3 million fully guaranteed at signing, which felt like a lot until Russell Wilson signed his deal. Murray got a signing bonus of roughly $29 million and fully guaranteed salaries of $965,000 this year, $2 million in 2023 and $37 million in 2024, plus an option bonus of roughly $36 million in 2023 that’s also guaranteed.
But things haven’t gone so great in Arizona this year, so perhaps you’re wondering whether the Cardinals can escape the Murray deal — especially if there are changes on the horizon to the coaching staff and/or front office. The answer is no — at least not anytime soon.
The key date for the Cardinals is the start of the 2024 league year, at which time nearly $31 million in guaranteed 2025 salary and bonuses becomes fully guaranteed. If the Cardinals decide to cut Murray after the 2023 season, they’ll have paid him $103.3 million for two years of service and they’d incur a dead-money cap hit of about $81.5 million in 2024 (or, if they cut him post-June 1, $48.3 million in 2024 and $33.2 million in 2025).
If the Cardinals want to trade Murray after this season, and if they were able to do so before picking up the 2023 option, they would carry just a $23.228 million dead-money charge on their 2023 cap. But that would require them to persuade a team to take on a contract that pays Murray a guaranteed $75 million or so over the next two years.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams paid a Super Bowl championship tax when they extended Stafford in the offseason. Yes, the deal helped them manage their 2022 salary cap, but they also structured it in a way that likely ties them to a 34-year-old quarterback who came into the season with an elbow problem and has missed time recently due to concussion and neck problems. Stafford got a $60 million signing bonus and fully guaranteed salaries of $1.5 million this year and next year, so $63 million guaranteed at signing.
If he’s still on the Rams’ roster at the start of the 2023 league year, then both a $26 million 2023 option bonus and his $31 million 2024 salary become fully guaranteed. So, either they cut him after this year, having paid him $63 million for one season and eat $75.5 million in dead-money cap charges, or they keep him on the 2023 roster and end up paying him $120 million over three years from 2022-24. Odds are, they choose the latter option, but who knows? A few years back we did a similar look at QB contracts where we claimed the Rams would never be willing to absorb Jared Goff’s dead-money charge, but they did, and eventually won the Super Bowl as a result.
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
Who knows what will happen with the Colts and their QB situation after this year, but they could, in theory, bring Ryan back for one more year. He’s signed through 2023, and $12 million of his 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed. He’s got another $17 million in salary and bonuses that become fully guaranteed at the start of the 2023 league year. So either they could cut him, which would require them to pay him $12 million not to play for them and cost them $18 million in dead money on their 2023 cap, or they could keep him and pay him $29 million to start and/or back up for them in 2023, depending on what else they do at the position. Note: The Colts cannot designate Ryan a post-June 1 cut, because his contract expires at the end of 2023, so there are no future years into which dead cap money can be dumped.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Goff is signed through 2024 and is scheduled to make $30.65 million in 2023 and $31.65 million in 2024. But there is no more guaranteed money left on Goff’s deal after this year, so the Lions could cut him, owe him no cash and carry just a $10 million dead-money charge on their 2023 cap (or $5 million each in 2023 and 2024, if they so chose). He does have a $5 million roster bonus due at the start of the 2023 league year, which means they’d have to decide about his status by then or pay him the extra $5 million regardless of whether he plays for them. Agents like to put March roster bonuses into deals in later years to force the team into a decision timetable that’s more favorable to the player — cutting Goff in March would give him more time to sign on with a team than if they waited until after the draft, for example.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Here’s an interesting one! Prescott is signed through 2024, and his 2023 salary of $31 million is fully guaranteed. His 2024 salary of $29 million is not guaranteed, nor is his 2024 roster bonus of $5 million (which comes with a March 2024 deadline). Dak is sure to be the Cowboys’ starter for at least one more year after this one and probably much longer, as they’ll likely look to extend him this offseason or next. But if things were to go wrong, the 2024 season is when the Cowboys would have a relatively easy out.
Moving on from Dak in the 2024 offseason would cost them no cash, and about $40 million in dead-money cap charges for 2024. But Dak’s only 29, and they love him there, so things would have to go very wrong for any of this to matter. Just pointing out that this extension, which feels so recent, was a short-term deal designed to get him to the market again sooner, or prompt a decision by Dallas on an extension in the next year or two.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brady is technically signed through 2026, which is hilarious because that’s the year he turns 49. But that deal is only spread out that far for cap purposes. Brady’s contract voids at the start of the 2023 league year, and he will be a free agent. The Buccaneers will carry a $35 million dead-money cap charge for Brady in 2023 unless they extend him again before the deal voids. They also could spread that $35 million out over two years if he retires and they delay the official retirement beyond June 1.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Cousins is making $30 million in 2023, and it’s guaranteed money, but it’s in the form of a $10 million salary and a $20 million March roster bonus. Because of signing bonus proration, cutting Cousins would incur a $48 million cap charge for the Vikings in 2023. But if they decided to trade him, and they did it before the roster bonus was due, then the full $30 million would become the acquiring team’s responsibility and the dead-money charge for Cousins in 2023 for Minnesota would be $18.75 million. This is another one that likely depends on how the year ends. Certainly, from the current vantage point, it’s tough to see why the Vikings would move off of Cousins next offseason. But at some point they’re not going to be able to give him fully guaranteed extensions every offseason.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Tannehill has one more non-guaranteed year left on his deal. He’s scheduled to make $27 million in 2023. Cutting him would bring an $18.8 million dead-money charge, which is affordable if the Titans decide to go in a different direction. They’ve won a lot of games with Tannehill, but if this season were to end as disappointingly as last season did, you wonder whether they’d look at other options.
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2023 QB SPECULATION
Jeff Howe plays the what if game with QBs for 2023:
It’s been believed the NFL quarterback carousel could never spin as wildly as it did last offseason when Tom Brady briefly retired, Aaron Rodgers toyed with retirement, and Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson headlined a flurry of trades.
It can’t happen again, right? Especially not so soon?
Not so fast.
As personnel departments honestly assess their rosters with an eye toward the offseason, it’s paramount to compile a series of possible plans. The answer isn’t always in the draft or free agency, so there’s been a recent trend to move veteran QBs for a massive haul of assets.
All scenarios must be considered, and the potential QB dominos will start at an appropriate place.
Tom Brady
Brady, who will be a free agent for the second time in his career, must first decide if he wants to continue playing. At this point, his plans remain a total mystery.
If Brady wants to return for a 24th season as a 46-year-old, he shouldn’t rule out the idea of joining a third team. The Buccaneers have taken a major step back on offense this season without Bruce Arians at head coach or much of a ground game, so Brady should seek assurances from the decision-makers of an improved schematic plan and upgrades on the offensive line.
Otherwise, there are four natural locations for his next spot, starting with his hometown 49ers. They’re well-coached by Kyle Shanahan, and they’ve got a championship-caliber roster. While they’ve also got a potential franchise quarterback Trey Lance in waiting, the 49ers should favor a proven veteran over an inexperienced QB, regardless of Lance’s astronomical potential.
And then there’s Brady’s longtime offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the Raiders. If Brady has concerns over the Bucs offense or adjusting to Shanahan’s complex scheme, he’d surely be attracted to the familiarity of McDaniels’ system. However, the Raiders absolutely must improve their offensive line, and they’ve got to be much better defensively to be viewed as a Super Bowl contender, so those might cause hesitation for Brady.
But what about Derek Carr? He’s been good, not great this season, but it’s hard to be a consistently productive quarterback without a good line. There’s also an understandable adjustment period with a new offensive system.
If the Raiders don’t net Brady, they might believe Carr will be even better in 2023. And if they do land Brady, Carr would have solid trade value, likely in the range of a first-round pick.
Don’t discount the Titans, either. Brady has remained extremely close with Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel since their time together with the Patriots, and that roster is also built to keep contending. They’re tough, and they play the right way. That’ll be appealing to Brady.
But for the Titans, can they be comfortable trading quarterback Ryan Tannehill and assuming $18.8 million in dead cap money? It’d take an aggressive series of moves, but Vrabel and general manager Jon Robinson have built an aggressive team. They should easily control the AFC South with Brady.
And finally — maybe hold onto your phone with two hands for this one — don’t ever write off the Patriots.
Brady and Bill Belichick still have an abundance of respect for one another. They’ve made points to say it publicly on multiple occasions since the QB departed for Tampa. They also spent 23 minutes together in the visiting locker room at Gillette Stadium following Brady’s return in 2021 — an appointment they set up prior to the game.
The Patriots are slated to have more than $50 million in cap space in 2023, so they can again address their flaws, this time on the heels of a couple impressive draft classes.
The issues? Not the egos. Not the pride.
For Brady, he’d have to know the offense is in capable hands. There have been criticisms of Matt Patricia’s first season as a play caller — plenty warranted, others exaggerated — and Brady benefited by an abundance of stability with the offensive coordinator in New England. He’d either need to be comfortable with Patricia or push for a reunion with someone like Bill O’Brien, currently the Alabama offensive coordinator, to ensure he’s not wasting a season as a 46-year-old. Sure, Brady would return to run his offense, but he can’t also coordinate it.
For the Patriots, they should want clarity on Brady’s future. Is he going year to year? Do they need to fully guarantee a second season, something Belichick wouldn’t do before Brady walked in 2020?
Realistically, the Patriots wouldn’t even need to trade Mac Jones, whose rookie contract runs through 2024 plus the fifth-year option in 2025. While they certainly could — and as is the case with many starting quarterbacks, they’d start the trade conversations with the hopes of recouping a first-round pick — there’d be loads of value in Jones learning from Brady.
Maybe it’s a long shot. There might be better situations for Brady. But just when you think you’ve got Belichick figured out, he does something no one sees coming.
Aaron Rodgers
The Packers quarterback, who turns 39 on Friday, will wait until the offseason to determine his future. The two most logical decisions will be to stay in Green Bay or retire.
But what if he wants out? Furthermore, when the Packers are eliminated from playoff contention — it could happen in the next two or three weeks — what if they move to quarterback Jordan Love and really like what they see?
They would easily get a first-rounder for Rodgers — probably two if Rodgers assures his new team he’ll play at least two more years — and that’d be a major win for a Packers team in restocking mode as they heed $40.3 million in dead cap space with such a trade.
If Rodgers desires a new landscape, the 49ers immediately come to mind, but they don’t have a first-round pick until 2024 because they already moved up for Lance. Perhaps they can move Lance and flip that capital to acquire Rodgers, but would it be enough? That’s why Brady or retaining Jimmy Garoppolo feels more likely for San Francisco.
So if not the Niners, would Rodgers go to the Jets like Brett Favre? The Steelers, Colts, Raiders, Giants or Seahawks? For Rodgers, none of those places seem like an upgrade over the Packers, but the same was believed about Brady and the Bucs in 2020.
It feels like an extreme longshot, but every QB-needy team in the league was anxiously monitoring Rodgers’ decision last offseason. If they think there’s even the slightest chance Rodgers could be available, it’d be organizational malpractice not to make a call.
Lamar Jackson
We recently covered Jackson’s uniquely complex contract situation extensively, and little has changed since.
For this particular lookahead, let’s just focus on two scenarios. First, the Ravens could reach an extension with Jackson or give him the exclusive franchise tag (projected at approximately $45-46 million) to prevent him from speaking with other teams and making this a moot point. This seems most likely.
Second, the Ravens could offer him the nonexclusive tag (projected somewhere north of $30 million) and allow him to negotiate with other teams, though they could match any offer or decline and recoup two first-round picks. Considering the Browns and Broncos just gave up significantly more than two first-rounders for Watson and Wilson, the nonexclusive tag would be a major gamble.
If a quarterback-desperate team steps up with a fully guaranteed $250 million contract, or at least 80 percent of that guaranteed, Jackson needs to entertain that offer. Perhaps those teams could include the Jets, Colts, Steelers, Texans, Giants, Commanders, Falcons, Lions, Panthers or Saints. Don’t worry about the cap. If a team needs a franchise quarterback, they’ll find a way to make the money work.
Again, the Ravens could just match the offer sheet and retain Jackson. Maybe they’re even banking on it, because they’ve declared their intentions to keep him.
It’s extremely rare for a tagged player to sign elsewhere, but Jackson is a unique case. Some of those teams won’t offer a better situation than the Ravens, but if he’s looking to maximize his value, this may be the way to do it.
Jimmy Garoppolo
A few weeks ago, it felt inevitable Garoppolo would play anywhere else in 2023. And a few months ago, it felt inevitable Garoppolo would play anywhere else in 2022.
Things change.
The 49ers’ season almost was over (again), but Jimmy Garoppolo got back up
As noted in the Brady section, the 49ers have a championship window, and Lance has an incredibly high ceiling. But how long will it take Lance to reach that ceiling? Remember, Lance will enter Week 1 of the 2023 season having thrown a total of 132 passes in competitive games since 2019. Garoppolo has more attempts (156) in his past five games.
This is how good coaches and executives view young players: First, if you’re a quarterback, you need to prove you can execute over the course of an extended stretch of games. Second, regardless of position, you need to show you can stay healthy. While the 49ers have reason to believe Lance has the potential to be a franchise quarterback, they haven’t seen him answer either of those two questions, so they can’t be sure of anything.
Quarterbacks have said that it takes at least a year to learn Shanahan’s system, which makes Garoppolo a superior fit to any veteran addition outside of Brady or Rodgers. So if the Niners lose Garoppolo, they’re betting a year of their Super Bowl window on Lance producing in a way he hasn’t proven in the NFL.
This is not a knock against Lance. It’s just life in the NFL.
But what’s Garoppolo to do? Depending how the rest of this season plays out, can or should the 49ers guarantee his starting job?
If anyone else offers starter money — $25-30 million annually — and the path to the job, Garoppolo owes it to himself to leave. That’s how any competitor would operate.
The 49ers’ alternative could be Matt Ryan, who worked with Shanahan in Atlanta. If the Colts release Ryan, this would give the Niners the runway to start Lance in 2023 and have a proven veteran at the ready.
There’s another possibility here, too. Garoppolo could be another candidate to reunite with McDaniels in Las Vegas. If the Raiders sign Garoppolo and flip Carr for a high draft pick, it could accelerate the rebuild by replenishing the wasted draft picks from the prior regime. However, the Raiders would probably need Carr’s college teammate and close friend, wide receiver Davante Adams, to be on board with the QB change.
Derek Carr
The Raiders extended Carr before the season, but they’d only be on the hook for $5.6 million in dead money if they traded him in 2023. Considering Carson Wentz (two third-round picks) and Matt Ryan (third-rounder) netted decent compensation last offseason, Carr should have value, perhaps in the neighborhood of a first-round pick.
Depending how the season plays out, the Raiders (4-7) might have a shot to draft a top-tier quarterback (more on those players later) if they don’t upgrade with another veteran. Otherwise, the Raiders won’t be trying to move a QB who has played well under difficult circumstances this season.
Geno Smith
By now, you’re well aware the Seahawks are happy with the outcome of starting Smith after the Wilson trade. The Seahawks, as a result, appear poised to re-sign the 32-year-old Smith.
They’re also looking at a potential top-five pick because they’ll recoup the Broncos’ selection from the Wilson trade. So if they’re in range and think Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud are immediate starters, that could factor in the Smith negotiations.
Smith is having the best season of his 10-year career, but he might be more valuable to the Seahawks than anyone else, because he only started five games from 2015-21. It makes the most sense for Smith to stay in Seattle.
2021 draft class
Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields aren’t going anywhere. Realistically, none of the 2021 first-rounders are likely to be moved.
But…
What if the Niners ride with Garoppolo? What if Brady wants to return to New England? What if the Jets make a run at a veteran like Rodgers or Carr?
For teams that aren’t in range to draft Young or Stroud and aren’t sold on the next tier of QB prospects, they might at least check in on Lance, Jones or Zach Wilson.
2023 draft class
Young and Stroud are viewed as the best QB prospects in the draft class and should be Week 1 starters. Kentucky’s Will Levis might also be in the mix for the top half of the first round, and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker and Stanford’s Tanner McKee are going to be in the discussion for a Friday selection (Round 2 or 3).
The Texans (1-9-1) are barreling toward the No. 1 pick, but there’s a 12-team cluster of three- and four-win teams that are teetering on the brink of landing a franchise-altering quarterback.
Those QB-needy teams that fall out of the top 10 will try to get more creative with the veteran market.
Quarterback competition
Jacoby Brissett did a nice job in a tough spot this season for the Browns. Taylor Heinicke once again reinvigorated the Commanders. Daniel Jones has finally shown signs of progress for Giants first-year coach Brian Daboll, but they could still be in the market for an upgrade.
In the event that Brady and Rodgers stay put or retire, or Jackson gets the exclusive tag from the Ravens, or Garoppolo and Smith remain with their teams, QB-starved franchises will be in a much tougher predicament.
So what happens here?
Last offseason, the Steelers (Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett) and Falcons (Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder) created quarterback competitions between veteran free agents with starting experience and draft selections.
Brissett, Heinicke and Daniel Jones will likely be at the top of that category next offseason. Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, Teddy Bridgewater, Gardner Minshew and Andy Dalton may also get budget-level deals with chances to compete or fortify a backup position.
That’s why, in recent years, teams have been willing to give up so much in trades for Matthew Stafford, Wilson and Watson. If the quarterback dominos continue to fall next offseason, there’s a chance for more marquee names to be on the move.
We don’t recall seeing the names JARED GOFF or MATTHEW STAFFORD in Howe’s piece. Nor the Saints, Buccaneers and Lions beyond a mention on Lamar Jackson’s long list. So many moving parts, maybe more than even last year.
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2023 DRAFT
Nick Baumgardner and Austin Mock of The Athletic look at how the draft order is shaping with Houston close to being on the clock at number one:
It’s getting ugly at the top. The Texans, currently in position to pick No. 1 at the 2023 NFL Draft, have lost six straight. The two teams right behind them, the Bears and Rams (whose pick is headed to Detroit), have each dropped five in a row. There’s still a lot left to sort out, for the draft and the playoff race — 14 of the NFL’s 32 teams have four wins or fewer; 13 have seven wins or more. But we’re starting to get a little clarity.
What’s it all mean for our projected top 10 draft order? For that, we turn to Austin Mock. As a reminder, Mock projects the score for every game and the final win percentage for every team using his NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our No. 1 pick odds and each team’s projected win total.
Austin Mock’s projected top 10 (Nov. 29)
Proj. Wins #1 Chance
Houston 2.7 78.0%
Chicago 4.4 9.8%
L.A. Rams (DET pick) 4.8 6.9%
Denver (SEA pick) 5.1 3.2%
Carolina 5.7 0.6%
New Orleans (PHI pick) 6.2 0.2%
Arizona 6.3 0.2%
Indianapolis 6.4 0.2%
Jacksonville 6.5 0.4%
Detroit 6.7 0.2%
And here’s how the top 10 currently stands coming out of Monday night, with an updated look from Nick Baumgardner at how each team should be feeling about its present and future coming out of Week 12:
1. Houston Texans (1-9-1)
Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 78.0 percent
Average draft position in Austin Mock’s simulations: 1.4
Week 12: Lost to Miami, 30-15
Every NFL season is filled with ups, downs and in-betweens. So it’s nice to know there’s something you can count on … like Houston, pretty firmly, being the worst team in football yet again. I’ve been on the fence about whether or not Houston needs to pull the cord and take a QB at No. 1 no matter what. But the further away from competitiveness this roster gets, the more it feels like Bryce Young might just be the best start to a possibly productive draft for Nick Caserio.
2. Chicago Bears (3-9)
Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 9.8 percent
Average draft position: 3.5
Week 12: Lost to the Jets, 31-10
The higher this pick gets, the better the opportunity for Chicago to move down. That has to be priority No. 1. Chicago is one of the only teams in this group that will not need a quarterback, under any circumstance, come spring. If the Bears can’t trade out, Jalen Carter or Will Anderson Jr., would make for an incredible consolation prize.
3. Detroit Lions via L.A. Rams (3-8)
Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 6.9 percent
Average draft position: 4.3
Week 12: Lost to Kansas City, 26-10 (Rams)
The Rams are currently in the process of giving Brad Holmes a thank-you gift for that Super Bowl last season. The Matthew Stafford trade sent to Detroit, among other things, Jared Goff, a No. 1 pick in 2022 (which the Lions’ flipped for Jameson Williams) and a No. 1 pick this year. With Stafford, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson now hurt, it really feels like that selection could wind up in the top five. Detroit’s own first-rounder is still outside the top 10, but barely (Mock projects the Lions’ own pick to land at No. 10). The Lions continue to be in great shape draft-board wise and will have the picks to make a move for a QB, if they want.
4. Seattle Seahawks via Denver (3-8)
Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 3.2 percent
Average draft position: 5.7
Week 12: Lost to Carolina, 23-10 (Broncos)
Broncos Country, let’s ride. The Fighting Geno Smiths came up four points short vs. an inspired Vegas squad last week, but are still 6-5 and playing solid football in a number of areas. While Smith’s play has come back to earth a little, it hasn’t really dropped off much. As has been the case since really the start of the year, Seattle doesn’t necessarily need a QB out of the 2023 draft. This is a solid football team right now with a chance to really make a splash. Thanks, Russ.
5. Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 0.6 percent
Average draft position: 7.1
Week 12: Beat Denver, 23-10
It was great day on Sunday for Steve Wilks and a roster that’s been through a lot of rough stuff this year, when Carolina scored a win over lagging Denver. The Panthers are not a good team — they’re not real close. But they do have some promising youngsters who continue to make small strides. This is a disjointed roster right now in desperate need of QB help. The Panthers really could use a top two pick this spring.
6. Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans (4-8)
Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 0.2 percent
Average draft position: 8.6
Week 12: Lost to San Francisco, 13-0 (Saints)
Every week we do this, and I’m still no closer to having even the slightest idea what Howie Roseman might settle on with this pick, wherever it lands. Roseman’s IQ as a GM says he’ll use it to stock the future at an aging position, like OT or edge, but this is a loaded football team with a window that extends beyond 2022. Should it add strength to strength here? Going full luxury pick and see if it can land someone like Bijan Robinson? Trade it? All of those options are on the table here.
7. Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 0.2 percent
Average draft position: 8.8
Week 12: Lost to the Chargers, 25-24
The Giants are an example of a team light on talent and experience that’s playing above its head. The Cardinals are the opposite: a team that has talent and experience but is playing below its level. The questions in Arizona right now should be as much about Kliff Kingsbury’s future and whether this direction — if there actually is one? — still works. Figure that out first, then we’ll talk about the draft.
8. Green Bay Packers (4-8)
Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 0.1 percent
Average draft position: 11.1
Week 12: Lost to Philadelphia, 40-33
Mock’s projection still has the Packers landing outside of the top 10 (No. 13). But if Green Bay holds around here, is it time to give Aaron Rodgers (or Jordan Love) a top-10 receiver? Will he still be in Green Bay to see the pick? Rodgers turns 39 later this week, and the Packers’ 2022 playoff hopes are aging as rapidly as he is. All kidding aside (I’ve been 39 for months), Rodgers still has the goods if Green Bay can figure out its protection, offensive skill depth and general cohesion issues. An offensive lineman would be tempting, but maybe not quite as tempting as a pass-catching playmaker like Michael Mayer or Jordan Addison.
9. Las Vegas Raiders (4-7)
Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 0.1 percent
Average draft position: 11.1
Week 12: Beat Seattle, 40-34
Back-to-back wins for the Raiders certainly puts the Josh McDaniels experience in a better situation than it was a few weeks ago. Things looked rather chaotic after a shutout defeat against New Orleans and a loss to the Jeff Saturday-led Colts. There are a few winnable games left on the schedule, and the Raiders’ roster is good enough to string a few together in December. That said, this team also could really use a top-10 pick and an injection of elite youth.
10. Houston Texans via Cleveland (4-7)
Projected odds of securing No. 1 overall: 0.1 percent
Average draft position: 12.9
Week 12: Beat Tampa Bay, 23-17 (Browns)
See what I mean about Houston just biting the bullet and taking a QB? The Texans have more picks in this draft than Aaron Rodgers has gray hair (sorry, Aaron. Happy birthday). There’s lots to work with.
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