| The ratings are in for Bills-Chiefs on CBS, Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: Every network wants to televise the now-annual regular-season game between the Chiefs and the Bills. And for good reason. The game delivers. Via Austin Karp of Sports Business Journal, 30.8 million on average watched the late-afternoon Sunday game on CBS. It’s the fifth-highest audience for a regular-season game on CBS since it returned to the small pool of NFL broadcast partners in 1998. But it wasn’t the most-watched regular-season game of the season. In Week 2, 33,8 million watched Eagles-Chiefs on Fox. |
| NFC NORTH |
| CHICAGOIn a quiet deadline day deal, the Bears landed a former first rounder to hopefully bolster their pass rush. Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com: The Bears added depth to their injury-riddled defensive line by trading for Cleveland Browns defensive end Joe Tryon-Shoyinka on Tuesday. Two days after starting edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo suffered a season-ending Achillies tear against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Bears sent a 2026 sixth-round pick to the Browns in exchange for Tryon-Shoyinka and a 2026 seventh-rounde. Tryon-Shoyinkaa was selected by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the 32nd pick in 2021. He became a free agent after the Bucs declined to pick up his fifth-year option and signed a one-year, $4.75 million contract with Cleveland this offseason. The 26-year-old defensive end struggled to establish a role in a deep defensive line room where he was behind defensive ends Myles Garrett, Alex Wright and Isaiah McGuire. Tryon-Shoyinka logged 31 snaps on defense where he recorded nine tackles and one quarterback hit. He also played 58 snaps on special teams over eight games. In Chicago, he projects as part of a rotation at defensive end to fill the void created by Odeyingbo’s injury. Bears edge rusher Austin Booker made his 2025 debut against the Bengals in Week 9 after spending the first seven games of the season on injured reserve. Booker recorded a sack and two tackles in Cincinnati. The Bears now have three healthy defensive ends opposite Montez Sweat: Booker, Tryon-Shoyikna and Daniel Hardy. |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASBen Solak of ESPN.com is not a fan of the Cowboys acquisition of DT QUINNEN WILLIAMS: I’m glad that Jerry Jones has recently become obsessed with solving Dallas’ run defense. It’s a worthy pursuit. This was not a good way to go about it, though. The Cowboys sent a 2026 second-round pick and a 2027 first-round pick, along with defensive tackle Mazi Smith, to the Jets in return for Quinnen Williams. Williams is 27 years old and still a quality player, but it’s worth being detailed here. Williams has one All-Pro nod in six seasons as a pro, as well as three consecutive Pro Bowl appearances. He’s a great player who at his best has been an absolute game-wrecker. His 2023 season, in which he had a pressure rate of 16.3%, remains the most disruptive pass-rush season for a defensive tackle in the Next Gen Stats database (since 2016). But like Gardner, Williams’ play has tailed off in recent years. He had a pressure rate of 12.0% in 2024 (still quite good) and 8.0% so far this season (quite bad). His time to pressure is also falling — 2.74 seconds in 2022 (his All-Pro season), 2.79 seconds the following year, then 3.02 and now 3.16. Of course, a new scheme might return Williams to his preferred play style of upfield penetration and subsequent dominance. But isn’t the theory in Dallas to improve run defense? The Cowboys already had a penetration defensive tackle in Osa Odighizuwa, whom they just extended this offseason. Odighizuwa had a 14.2% pressure rate in 2023 and 11.1% in 2024 from defensive tackle alignments. Since 2023, Williams has a run stop rate of 10.9% and a stuff rate of 4.6%; Odighizuwa is at 7.9% and 3.0%, respectively. Of course, Williams is larger and a more reliable run defender than Odighizuwa — and he’s a better pass-rush player without question. But he’s 27 and turning 28, and I’m not convinced he’s one of the five best players at his position. Williams will play his age-28 and age-29 seasons under contract for a total of $47.25 million; if he continues to play well, he could cash in again in Dallas. But even with the value on the contract considered, the price to acquire his contract feels unforgivably large. The Jets have the right to the better of the Cowboys’ two first-round picks in 2027, as Dallas has both its own selection and Green Bay’s pick (from the Micah Parsons trade). This tiny detail has enormous ramifications. Should the Packers make an NFC run in 2026, while the Cowboys suffer a losing season, the Jets can move 15-20 picks in the first round just by retaining that optionality. Consider how much teams have traded to move spots in the first round in recent years. When the Saints moved from pick No. 16 to pick No. 11 to draft Chris Olave, they sent a third- and fourth-round picks to get it done. The Chiefs also included third- and fourth-round picks to move from No. 29 to No. 21 to draft Trent McDuffie. These are small distances in the first round, and they were worth multiple middle-round selections of value. Every single slot in the first round matters, and the Cowboys handed control of those slots to the Jets. This is not a good trade in a vacuum, and it looks even worse when you remember the Cowboys traded Parsons away for two first-rounders. The only difference in trade return between the Parsons deal and the Williams deal was swapping a first for a second, and now the Cowboys are paying Williams with the money they would have used (in part) to pay Parsons. Here’s a hypothetical. The Packers’ two first-round picks end up both at No. 29 — two losses in the NFC Championship Game. The Cowboys’ second-rounder next year ends up as the 42nd pick, and their first-rounder in 2027 ends up No. 16 — average. Different trade value charts will give you different sums, but these two packages are roughly equal. The Cowboys might have traded as much draft capital for Williams as they got for Parsons. That’s bad business. On the entertainment value scale, this was the best trade of the day. It might bear good returns on the football field; Williams is a highly disruptive and talented player. But on the trade value scales, this deal was heavily weighted to the Jets. |
| PHILADELPHIAGM Howie Roseman on why WR A.J. BROWN is still an Eagle. Tim McManus of ESPN.com: – Eagles receiver A.J. Brown was too important to the team to move him at the trade deadline, general manager Howie Roseman said Tuesday. “I think that when you’re trying to be a great team, it’s hard to trade great players, and A.J. Brown is a great player,” Roseman said of the team captain on a videoconference with reporters. “He wears a ‘C’ for a reason. He’s an important part of this team, of this organization. He cares about winning, he cares about his teammates, and I think when you’re a team like ours that is looking forward to an opportunity to compete for a championship, you just don’t get rid of guys like that.” Brown, 28, is averaging a career-low 56.4 receiving yards per game this season and has expressed frustration over the state of the Eagles’ offense on multiple occasions. He posted a photo to Instagram following a breakout two-touchdown performance against the Minnesota Vikings in mid-October with a caption reading, “Using me but not using me,” prompting speculation about whether it was directed at the team. Coach Nick Sirianni said, however, that it was “business as usual” inside the Eagles’ building. Brown eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his three seasons in Philadelphia and has been a part of two teams that reached the Super Bowl, including last year’s squad that won it all. “I feel very lucky to have him on our team and excited about the second half of the season with him,” Roseman said. The Eagles made a flurry of moves prior to the deadline in an attempt to increase their chances of a repeat. They acquired: * Edge Jaelan Phillips from the Miami Dolphins for a 2026 third-round pick * CB Jaire Alexander and a seventh-round pick in 2027 from the Baltimore Ravens for a 2026 sixth-round pick * DB Michael Carter II and a 2027 seventh-round pick from the New York Jets for WR John Metchie III and a 2027 sixth-round pick. The Eagles’ edge rush group lacked production over the first half of the season but should look much different now with Nolan Smith (triceps) nearing a return, Brandon Graham unretiring and the trade for Phillips. “He can rush, he can set the edge, he can play in space. He’s got a nonstop motor,” Roseman said of Phillips. “Obviously it’s got to come together on the field, but I feel like we’ve got a really good front, and obviously adding Jaelan to that puts a lot of pieces in place to give us the opportunity to be dominant up front.” Phillips played for Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio when Fangio held the same post in Miami in 2023 and was in the midst of a career year before tearing his Achilles. Roseman said the familiarity with all three players — senior personnel director Joe Douglas was the Jets’ general manager when New York drafted Carter, and passing game coordinator/defensive backs coach Christian Parker was with Alexander in Green Bay in 2019-20 when Parker served as a defensive quality control coach — allowed for greater comfort making these in-season moves. Although Phillips’ role seems easy to project — he should be near the top of the edge rush rotation immediately — it’s yet to be seen how Carter and Alexander fit into a group that is led by Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell but has struggled to solidify the third player in the CB puzzle. “I think the first half of the season showed us how important cornerback depth is,” said Roseman, who saw corners Mitchell, Jakorian Bennett, Adoree’ Jackson and Kelee Ringo all deal with various injuries. Roseman added that Carter can also play safety, another position that could use some bolstering. Roseman said, “We’re not done here,” with respect to the roster back in August and made true on that statement. He also acquired running back Tank Bigsby, Bennett, QB Sam Howell, OT Fred Johnson and Metchie in recent weeks. “If there’s an incremental difference in a player, we owe it to our team, to our fans, to our building, to our owner to do that,” he said. |
| WASHINGTONWhen we looked at LB FRANKIE LUVU’s tackle that was deemed suspension worthy, we thought it just looked like a tackle, not a dirty play. And the in-game officials didn’t even throw a flag. Now comes word, he “won” his appeal before former LB Derrick Brooks, and will “only” be fined $100,000. John Keim of ESPN.com: Washington Commanders linebacker Frankie Luvu won’t be suspended for repeated violations of the rule against hip-drop tackles, the NFL announced Tuesday night. Luvu had appealed a ruling that he would be suspended one game, costing him a game check worth $508,333. Derrick Brooks, jointly appointed by the NFL and the NFLPA, heard the appeal. Luvu was instead fined $100,000. Luvu will play vs. Detroit on Sunday. The Commanders (3-6) have lost four consecutive games. |
| NFC SOUTH |
| NEW ORLEANSBen Solak of ESPN.com calls the Saints “deadline losers” but he’s really miffed by a trade made this summer: When the Saints traded Rashid Shaheed to the Seahawks for fourth- and fifth-round selections, they got a decent return. Shaheed is a 27-year-old receiver with one year left on his deal, and as one of the league’s premier speed threats, he has significant value even as a WR2 or WR3. They probably could have gotten more — Jakobi Meyers went for a fourth and a sixth just hours before, and he’s two years older without the cardinal field-stretching trait — but it’s a fine return. It is frustrating, however, to frame the Shaheed trade relative to the Devaughn Vele trade from August. The Saints acquired a 27-year-old receiver this year when they sent a fourth- and a future seventh-round pick to the Broncos for Vele. Sure, he has three cheap years left on his deal — unlike Shaheed — so the Saints were making a move for cap health. They need to save money, and Shaheed would have been decently expensive on the open market next offseason. But Vele has barely contributed to the Saints’ offensive efforts this season. He has five catches through eight games. His opportunity will increase with Shaheed gone, of course, but from the start of last season to today, Shaheed has 64 catches for 848 yards and five touchdowns. That’s a 17-game pace of 72.5 catches for 961 yards. Shaheed isn’t just a Marquise Goodwin or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He’s a bona fide WR2. The Saints got worse at wide receiver over the past few months, and their loss in talent outweighs their gain in cap space and draft capital to my eyes. Getting anything back for Trevor Penning, whom they sent to the Chargers for a 2028 conditional seventh-round pick, is a bright spot. But it’s tough to develop young quarterbacks without quality wide receiver play, and that’s the risk New Orleans is running these days. |
| NFC WEST |
| ARIZONAUpon further review, the Cardinals aren’t going to rush QB KYLER MURRAY right back into the lineup. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com: Jacoby Brissett will remain the Cardinals’ starting quarterback, for at least another week. Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon announced today that Brissett will remain in the starting lineup on Sunday against the Seahawks. Kyler Murray has missed the last three games with a foot injury. “Jacoby will start, and Kyler will keep working on his health,” Gannon said. “I do like what the offense is doing right now. We’ve operated well and we will go from there.” Gannon said he is not ruling out the possibility of Murray being active for Sunday’s game, but if he is active he will not be starting. After beating the Cowboys on Monday night, Gannon said Murray will start when healthy. But when asked today if he plans to go back to Murray, Gannon said he’s only focused on Seattle. If Brissett plays well and the Cardinals upset the Seahawks, it might be hard for Gannon to stick with his stance that Murray is the starter when healthy. Gannon acknowledged today that Brissett is doing a good job leading the Cardinals’ offense. “I do like how we’re operating as an offense,” Gannon said. “I think we’re doing a pretty good job on offense. I like what the offense is doing right now.” And Gannon will hope the offense keeps doing it, with Brissett starting again this week. |
| SEATTLEThe DB thinks the Seahawks made a sneaky good acquisition here. Brady Henderson of ESPN.com: — The Seahawks bolstered their banged-up receiving corps by acquiring Rashid Shaheed in a trade with the New Orleans Saints on Tuesday. Seattle sent 2026 fourth- and fifth-round picks to New Orleans. Shaheed, 27, has 44 receptions for 499 yards and two touchdowns in nine games this season. He reunites with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who was New Orleans’ offensive coordinator last season. He gives the Seahawks some needed reinforcement at receiver behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as Cooper Kupp, Jake Bobo and Dareke Young are all injured. Shaheed also has extensive experience returning punts and kickoffs. He was selected to the Pro Bowl as a return specialist and was named a first-team AP All-Pro kick returner in 2023. That area is a potential need for the Seahawks as Young has been one of their primary kickoff returners. Shaheed had three receiving touchdowns and a punt return for a touchdown last season despite playing in only six games because of a meniscus injury. He has only one kick return and 10 punt returns this season after returning from the injury. Kupp (heel, hamstring), Bobo (Achilles) and Young (hip) all missed the Seahawks’ win over the Washington Commanders on Sunday night, which pushed Seattle’s record to 6-2 and gave them a share of first place in the NFC West with the Los Angeles Rams. Shaheed, undrafted out of Weber State in 2022, signed a one-year, $5.2 million extension in 2024 with a $1 million signing bonus and was owed $4.2 million in base salary at the beginning of this season. The Seahawks will owe Shaheed only $2.1 million in base salary for the rest of the 2025 season. He is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after this season. He has 138 career catches for 2,055 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, 1 career rushing touchdown and 2 punt returns for a touchdown. Here are a couple of RASHEED SHAHID factoids: Since he entered the NFL in 2022 MOST 40+-YARD TDs SINCE START OF 2022 Ja’Marr Chase 13 Tyreek Hill 11 Rasheed Shahid 9 And, GAMES WITH 4+ CATCHES IN 2025 Rasheed Shahid 9Eight others with 8 His 87-yard TD catch against the Giants in Week 5 is the 2nd-longest TD from scrimmage in the NFL this season.- – -It’s not like the Seahawks do not already have an excellent receiver. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com: Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is leading the league in receiving yards this season, and he’s on pace to lead all receivers in NFL history with his production this season. Smith-Njigba has 948 receiving yards through eight games, a league-leading average of 118.5 receiving yards per game. If he keeps up that pace over a 17-game season, he’ll finish 2025 with 2,015 receiving yards. That would be the first 2,000-yard season for a receiver in NFL history. The current record for most receiving yards in a season is held by Lions Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson, who had 1,964 receiving yards in 2012. Johnson’s average of 122.75 yards per game that year was higher than Smith-Njigba is averaging this year, but Johnson did it in a 16-game season. The 17th game could get Smith-Njigba the record. The Seahawks traded for wide receiver Rashid Shaheed just before Tuesday’s trade deadline, and the threat of Shaheed making plays downfield could keep opposing defenses from doubling Smith-Njigba, and help him stay on his record pace. |
| AFC WEST |
| DENVERQB BO NIX is not worried that the Broncos did not make a move on deadline day: While plenty of teams around the league made a splash move at the trade deadline, the Broncos were not one of them. That’s just fine with quarterback Bo Nix, who spoke to the media on Tuesday as the Broncos will play the Raiders on Thursday this week. “Obviously if there’s a need you want to get it, but we feel like we have all the pieces,” Nix said, via transcript from the team. “Sometimes when something like that happens, it shakes things up. We have something good going, and we just want to keep riding this wave and finding ways to win.” To this point in the season, that’s exactly what the Broncos have been able to do, as they lead the AFC West at 7-2. While so far the club is 4-2 against the AFC, Denver is currently 0-1 in the division. The team can change that this week with a victory over Las Vegas. Big Shield combines gambling, pro football, and the mob into a cautionary tale regarding inside information, and the dangers that come from selling it. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| INDIANAPOLISBill Barnwell of ESPN.com pounded out a quick and long look at whether acquiring CB SAUCE GARDNER was a good deal: Well, none of us can ever accuse the Colts and general manager Chris Ballard of being too patient or conservative again. With Indy stunningly sitting atop the AFC at 7-2 after Daniel Jones’ incredible first half, the Colts made what has to be the most out-of-nowhere NFL trade deadline deal in recent memory Tuesday, sending two first-round picks and wideout Adonai Mitchell to the Jets for star cornerback Sauce Gardner. It’s a shocking move at first glance for both sides, though it might be a little more in-character after further review. Ballard has generally been a draft-and-develop GM during his time in Indianapolis outside of his moves to try filling the hole at quarterback. But he did send a first-round pick to the 49ers a few years for DeForest Buckner, who continues to impress on the interior of the defensive line for the Colts. The Jets just signed Gardner to a four-year, $120.4 million extension in July, evoking memories of the Odell Beckham Jr. trade from their local rivals, when Giants general manager Dave Gettleman said he “… didn’t sign [Beckham] to trade him,” then shipped the wideout to the Browns a month later. Gettleman signed Beckham to his deal, but he also inherited the star wideout from the prior Jerry Reese regime, which drafted him in the first round. This Jets front office, led by coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey, inherited Gardner from now-deposed general manager Joe Douglas. They signed Gardner to an extension, but something about that deal should have hinted toward the possibility that the Jets were leaving the door open for a potential trade. And now, midway through his fourth season in the NFL, the two-time first-team All-Pro is leaving New York for Indianapolis. It’s certainly a fascinating trade. Let’s break it down, starting with what the Colts are getting. What are the Colts getting?It feels like Gardner has already lived a handful of NFL lives since entering the league as a 22-year-old in 2022. The fourth-overall pick stepped right into the starting lineup for then-coach Robert Saleh and immediately transformed the Jets’ defense, helping it jump from 32nd in points allowed per drive in 2021 to second in 2022 and fourth in 2023. Gardner had a credible case as the best cornerback in football during his debut season and was deservedly a first-team All-Pro in each of his first two campaigns. That alone might be reason to treat Gardner as something resembling a unicorn. The list of players who were first-team All-Pros in each of their first two seasons in the Super Bowl era might as well be considered Hall of Fame spoilers. It consists of nine players. Running backs Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson and Barry Sanders are in the Hall, as are legendary edge rusher Lawrence Taylor and return man Devin Hester. Active players Quenton Nelson and Micah Parsons are on a clear path to Canton. The only exception is former Eagles tight end Keith Jackson. Even if you want to give Nelson and Parsons incomplete grades, Gardner’s part of a group where five of the six players who have completed their careers are Hall of Famers. That’s good company. At the same time, Gardner really hasn’t been the same player over the past season and a half, especially after the Jets fired Saleh midseason. Per the FTN Football Almanac, Gardner was among the league’s top cornerbacks as a rookie by just about every metric. He was still solid in 2023, but he fell off dramatically in his third pro season. Gardner’s rankings in key statsSeason DVOA Yards per pass attempt against Success rate Passes defensed2022 No. 9 No. 7 No. 7 No. 202023 No. 8 No. 23 No. 31 No. 122024 No. 64 No. 88 No. 22 No. 9 We don’t have those same metrics for Gardner yet in 2025, but per charting data at Pro-football-reference.com, Gardner’s passer rating against has risen for the third consecutive season, jumping from a 62.7 mark in 2022 to a 98.1 figure across seven games this year under Glenn. His missed tackle rate, which was above league-average as a rookie, has been among the worst in the NFL over each of the three ensuing seasons, too. Then again, Deion Sanders wasn’t exactly a great tackler, and that didn’t stop the now-Colorado coach from winning Super Bowls and making it to the Hall of Fame. But that’s a curious fit for a Colts team whose defense has improved, in part, by simply tackling better. Indy led the league with 157 missed tackles last season, 23 more than any other team. They’re in the middle of the pack this season. At the same time, it’s fair to point out that the pass rush in front of Gardner has declined over that timeframe, too. The Jets were second in the NFL in sack rate between the start of 2022 and Saleh’s firing midway through the 2024 season, and they are 29th since his departure. A massive decline in pass pressure is going to make it more difficult for any cornerback to hold up in coverage. The Colts are 16th in sack rate and 20th in pressure rate this year, but even that’s a major upgrade from what Gardner was dealing with toward the end of his run in New York. Other metrics make it clear that he can still plaster to opposing receivers. NFL Next Gen Stats noted that 61.9% of Gardner’s targets this season have come on tight-window throws, the highest rate for any regular cornerback in football. Some of that is likely a product of the Jets playing heavy doses of man coverage, which is going to create narrower windows and reduce space between defenders and receivers, but it’s also an indicator that there’s nothing physically wrong with Gardner leading to his decline over that past year-plus. For Indy and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, Gardner’s obviously a major upgrade on what they were rolling out at cornerback. The Colts have cycled through options at corner over the past few years with limited success. Kenny Moore II has been a reliable operator in the slot when healthy, but Stephon Gilmore was one-and-done before being traded, and second-round pick JuJu Brents played just 10 games amid injuries before getting cut at the end of camp. Xavien Howard was signed and retired before Halloween, while former Anarumo favorite Mike Hilton joined earlier this season and quickly hit injured reserve. Indy signed Charvarius Ward to fill one starting role this offseason, but he is on injured reserve after suffering a concussion. The Colts just got 2024 starter Jaylon Jones back from IR last week, but they’ve given significant snaps to the likes of Mekhi Blackmon, Johnathan Edwards, Chris Lammons and Cameron Mitchell at cornerback this season, all of whom profile as replacement-level options. Anarumo’s defense is at its best when he has maximum flexibility. Few defensive coaches in the league are better at tinkering, building weekly game plans and adding wrinkles to throw off opposing offenses and their preparation in real-time. The most famous of those moves, of course, was Anarumo shifting toward a three-man rush and drop-eight coverage around halftime against the Chiefs in the 2021 AFC Championship Game, flummoxing one of the league’s best offenses in the process. Kansas City scored 21 points before halftime but just three after the break and through overtime, with Anarumo’s defense stealing away the AFC title and coming within one stop of winning the Super Bowl. When Anarumo didn’t have Jessie Bates III, a healthy Chidobe Awuzie and other veterans in the secondary, his defenses suffered. They weren’t able to be quite as creative schematically, and when they tried, a young, underwhelming group of players made too many mental mistakes. Now, with the potential of lining Ward, Moore, Cam Bynum and Gardner in the secondary, Anarumo has veterans who can hold up in coverage and create big plays without many mental lapses. That’s going to give him all kinds of options up front. He has already unlocked some fun things, like using Buckner as a standup rusher over the center, as the Browns did with Myles Garrett last season and the Rams have with Jared Verse at times in 2025. The Colts are 22nd in blitz rate this year, but they’ve been the sixth-best defense in the league by opponent QBR when they do send extra rushers. Anarumo has tried to create sacks and potential interceptions with his sim pressure packages, but does the extra help at cornerback mean the Colts can just send the house more often and trust that the secondary has more hope of holding up behind? If you’re a Colts fan, you shouldn’t have much trouble selling yourself on this trade. At the midway point of the season and fielding one of the most efficient offenses of the past two decades, the Colts have upgraded their biggest weakness with a 24-year-old player whose résumé strongly hints toward enshrinement in Canton one day. Even if Daniel Jones doesn’t end up playing like an MVP for the rest of the year, Gardner should be both a major short-term upgrade and a long-term asset for the Colts, who have him under contract through 2030. Was it a good deal?Gardner’s the latest in a series of young star defenders to be traded for two first-round picks. As I covered earlier this year with the Parsons trade, those deals generally haven’t delivered glowing results for the teams adding the superstars. The Rams won a Super Bowl with Jalen Ramsey, which has to count as a victory, but he was gone after one contract with the Rams. The Bears didn’t win a playoff game with Khalil Mack, whose best game with the franchise was probably his first one. The Seahawks whiffed badly with the Jamal Adams trade, which led the Jets to land star receiver Garrett Wilson, among others. There are differences between this move and most of those other ones. To start, the Colts also included a young receiver of some promise in Mitchell, who seemed to wear out his welcome with the organization after dropping the ball on the way to the end zone and taking a foolish holding penalty in the early-season loss to the Rams. Mitchell will make just $3.8 million over the next two-plus years, making him a relative bargain, and while his numbers haven’t been impressive, he was able to get open in 2024 — only for Anthony Richardson Sr. to struggle hitting the 23-year-old. If the Colts had shopped Mitchell on his own, they probably would have been able to land something in the range of the fourth-round pick the Cowboys sent to the Panthers for Jonathan Mingo at the deadline last season. The Colts are sending two first-round picks out as part of this deal, and as teams like the Seahawks, Browns, Broncos and Texans can attest, there are no guarantees where those picks will land. It’s tempting to assume those future picks will land in the bottom of the first round, but the Colts don’t even have Jones under contract in 2027. I would be shocked if he wasn’t back with Indy on the franchise tag or as part of a long-term deal next year, but Jones has a significant injury history, and he has never played at anything close to this level before. That 2027 pick could land anywhere in the first round, which has to be very appealing to the Jets. By making this deal in the middle of the season, though, the Colts can feel way more confident that the 2026 selection isn’t going to land in the top half of the first round. It’s always possible that the Colts go on a massive losing streak or Jones suffers a season-ending injury next week, but ESPN’s Football Power Index projects the 2026 first-rounder the Colts are sending to be the 26th pick. Sending a first-rounder in 2027 and a pick that’s extremely likely to land at the bottom of the first-round in 2026 isn’t quite as expensive as shipping off two future first-rounders with no idea of where even one of them might land. The other key difference is the contractual situation. Those players I mentioned all received new contracts as part of those deals. Gardner has already received his contract, a four-year, $120.4 million pact. The Jets already paid a $13.8 million signing bonus as part of that deal, which is a lot to pay for eight games of a player they were going to trade, but they also hinted at being open to moving Gardner as part of the right deal. That’s a very small signing bonus for a young player signing a significant second contract, though the Jets also only gave Garrett Wilson $13.8 million as the bonus on his deal. Gardner’s still in the fourth year of his rookie contract and had his fifth-year option picked up before the extension, so the Colts have six years of cost control. They’re paying Gardner $131.5 million over the next six years, $60.2 million of which is non-guaranteed money between 2029 and 2030. Gardner will likely be looking for a new contract or be released from this existing deal by the start of the 2030 league year. If you consider the value of those two rookie-contract years, the Colts are paying Gardner just under $22 million per season. In terms of the extension the Colts are absorbing as part of this deal, they’re on the hook for a four-year, $106 million contract, which is $26.5 million per season. That would have been a slightly below-market deal if the Colts had traded for Gardner this offseason and made the move then as opposed to now, as Derek Stingley Jr. had already signed for $30 million per year on his new contract. Typically, with these trades for two first-round picks, the players are able to use their newfound leverage to sign record-setting contracts for their respective positions. Ramsey, Adams, Mack and Parsons all signed the largest contracts in league history at their spots in the lineup, moving the needle by millions of dollars in the process. Gardner’s one of the highest-paid cornerbacks in football with this contract, but if the Colts did this deal before Gardner was signed to an extension, he would have had the leverage to ask for something like $35 million per year as part of the trade. With that deal already done, the Colts got better terms on Gardner’s contract. At the same time, the Colts have to factor in the surplus value of trading two first-round picks to acquire Gardner. Fans are always hesitant to treat first-round picks as guarantees of anything, and they can obviously hit, but the rookie scale and four years of cost-controlled salaries make draft picks bargains, even if first-rounders might have only a 50-50 shot of turning into above-average starters. The value of what you land when they hit outweighs the losses you deal with when they come up short. It’s unclear where Indy’s picks will land, but let’s use FPI’s projection of the 26th pick in 2026 and treat the 2027 selection as the 16th pick, since it could land anywhere. Using Ben Baldwin’s non-quarterback draft chart, that’s another $19.1 million per year in surplus value over the next four years. Two and a half years of Mitchell should take that north of $20 million per season. In other words, with the value of the picks needed to acquire Gardner built into the mix, the Colts are really paying more than $46 million per year to Gardner as part of this deal. That’s about what the Packers are paying Parsons (without the surplus value for his deal attached) and more than any other non-quarterback in football. The top of the cornerback market will go up in the years to come, but that surplus value is what makes these deals so difficult to land as successes. Anything short of perennial All-Pro production from a player like Gardner makes this a net negative. The Colts might feel like this was their chance to land a generational talent who would never hit the open market, and I’m inclined to think that Gardner is a true superstar at cornerback, even if he hasn’t been that player over the past year. At the midway point of the season, they’re in position to claim the top seed in the AFC. Ballard has been criticized for being too passive in the past, failing to do more to build a team that has almost always been competitive without ever really challenging to make a deep playoff run. If there was ever a time to make that move, it’s now. At the same time, great cornerbacks like Gilmore and Darrelle Revis have hit free agency in their primes, too. As a cautionary tale, remember that the Jaguars were in position to land the top seed in the AFC in mid-November two years ago, and after Trevor Lawrence got hurt, they fell out of contention and missed the playoffs altogether. They then failed to show up the following year and finished with the fifth-worst record in the NFL. There’s still a lot of football to go in 2025, and there are no guarantees that the Colts we’ve seen on offense will be the Colts we get moving forward. More than anything, what this does is essentially tie the Colts to Jones, whose 2025 performance is completely out of line with what he has done so far as a pro. Their path toward adding a young QB or players around Jones in 2026 and 2027 are compromised by this trade, which takes away their most valuable draft assets. If the Colts get this version of Jones over the next few years, that’s not a problem. If Jones gets hurt or falls back to Earth, of course, the Colts will be hamstrung in their ability to find a long-term replacement. That’s a risk Ballard is willing to take, and I wouldn’t fault the Colts, given what they’ve been through at quarterback since Andrew Luck retired, but the 2023-24 Giants are the downside for what happens if Jones regresses. Those New York teams had first-round picks to build around Jones and still couldn’t coax solid play out of the oft-injured quarterback. Jones has looked different this season, and by making this trade, the Colts are signaling that they believe this is the real version of the 2019 first-round pick. If it isn’t, even All-Pro caliber play from Gardner probably won’t be enough to make up the difference. |
| AFC EAST |
| BUFFALOThe Bills beat the Chiefs and currently have a more favorable playoff position. But the four-loss Chiefs are still the Super Bowl betting favorite. ESPN.com: The Kansas City Chiefs are still the Super Bowl favorites, but they are now +550 following Sunday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills, who are right behind them at +600. The Detroit Lions are coming off a loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but they are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles (bye in Week 9) as the third choice at +800. The Los Angeles Rams took care of business against the New Orleans Saints and saw their odds improve to +850. Behind them are the Green Bay Packers (+900), who suffered a stunning upset at home to the Carolina Panthers. The Bills, like the Chiefs, are currently a Wild Card who would begin the playoffs on the road. Unlike the Chiefs, the Bills have a good shot at both a division title and first round bye if they win their re-match with New England. Here are the top current odds – with the lack of love for the Bears, Jaguars and Steelers striking: Kansas City Chiefs +550Buffalo Bills +600Philadelphia Eagles +800Detroit Lions +800Los Angeles Rams +850Green Bay Packers +900Indianapolis Colts 12-1Seattle Seahawks 13-1Denver Broncos 16-1Baltimore Ravens 16-1Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-1New England Patriots 25-1Los Angeles Chargers 25-1San Francisco 49ers 25-1Jacksonville Jaguars 40-1Chicago Bears 50-1Pittsburgh Steelers 60-1 We also note how the 3-5 Ravens have better odds than a Tampa Bay team that is very, very likely to win their division and could have the NFC bye. And how the Ravens have much better odds than a Steelers team coming off an impressive win and two games ahead in their division standings. |
| MIAMIDan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com on why the Dolphins were not more active on deadline day: Graziano: I also heard the Dolphins got a lot of calls on wide receiver Jaylen Waddle — along with many of their other players — but that Miami told teams it would take a first-round pick to get Waddle, which no one was willing to give up. Fowler: Waddle’s situation was compelling. I was told the Broncos were among the teams that explored a deal for him, as an elite wideout at age 26 with a reasonable contract was enticing. The Steelers, the Giants and others either had interest or would have had interest if not for the steep price tag, which, depending on what team you asked, fluctuated between a first-round pick or a one-plus (a first-rounder and more). Some teams had a tough time getting a read on Miami’s intentions at the deadline, which is understandable four days removed from general manager Chris Grier’s firing. Graziano: The Dolphins feel like they’re in some kind of awkward in-between phase. Firing Grier, who had been with the team a quarter-century and had apprenticed under the previous three Dolphins GMs, felt like ownership signaling a desire for an entirely new vision and organizational philosophy. We don’t know if the Dolphins will also move on from the head coach or even the starting quarterback in the offseason, and I thought they’d make more moves to accumulate draft capital as they pivot into whatever they decide is their future. Instead, only edge rusher Jaelan Phillips was dealt, and the Dolphins seem like they’re still trying to make something out of their season at 2-7 while chasing the 7-2 Patriots and the 6-2 Bills. Unlike the Bengals, the Fins don’t have reason to feel like they can win their division, and I wonder if Miami will regret not making more moves. |
| NEW ENGLANDBen Solak of ESPN.com did not like the Patriots inaction at the deadline: Deadline loser: New England PatriotsOf all the teams that stood pat at the deadline (notables such as Tampa Bay, Denver and Pittsburgh), the Patriots are the team that surprised and disappointed me the most. The Colts’ decision to get aggressive acquiring a blue-chip player is defensible, but controversial. If the Patriots, who look like a legitimate AFC contender with an MVP contender quarterback playing on a rookie contract, took a similar leap, it would be universally cheered. The Patriots have good depth along their offensive skill positions and are getting solid play out of fringe starters along the offensive line, but any and all plus starters should have been of interest to Mike Vrabel. I understand passing on Meyers, whose skill set is quite redundant with that of Stefon Diggs — but Shaheed would have brought a speed element to the Patriots’ offense currently absent. I’m sure more trade deadline dirt will get kicked up now that the hour has passed. Maybe the price to trade for Chris Olave was so exorbitant that the Patriots are forgiven for standing still. But a legitimate AFC playoff push is in the cards for this team, and if it runs out of gas between here and the Super Bowl, I’m confident it will be because it lacks the requisite offensive firepower around Drake Maye to hang with the big dogs of the conference. |
| NEW YORK JETSThe Jets say they didn’t really want to give up their two best defenders at midseason, but they had to. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: The Jets were involved in the two biggest deals ahead of Tuesday afternoon’s trade deadline and General Manager Darren Mougey held a press conference to discuss the deals after the deadline passed. Mougey traded cornerback Sauce Gardner to the Colts and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys in a pair of trades that brought back a 2026 first-round pick, a 2026 second-round pick, two 2027 first-round picks, wide receiver AD Mitchell, and defensive tackle Mazi Smith. Mougey said that it is “never easy moving on from any player, let alone guys like Sauce and Quinnen,” but that the team felt they got offers they could not resist. “You’re set on what these values are, what they’re really worth and these players and what you might be willing to do to part ways with them,” Mougey said. “We got to today and had these offers that we just felt were too good for the team, and we made that with Sauce and Quinnen.” The Jets signed Gardner to a four-year extension this offseason, but Mougey said it was structured to make sure Gardner could be traded in the future. The expectation was not that it would happen quite so quickly, but the offers from the Colts kept “getting richer and richer in their value.” At 1-7, the Jets had ample reason to look forward to the future before Tuesday’s trades. Now that they’ve been made, there’s no doubt that the Jets will be doing some major roster construction and their ability to nail that process will determine how these two trades are viewed in the long run. Ben Solak of ESPN.com calls the Jets both winners and losers for their Tuesday haul of picks: Deadline winner: 2027 New York JetsWhat a day in New York. The Jets have shipped off two of their best young players in Gardner and Williams, and in return, they added three first-round picks, a second-round pick and two young players over the past four hours. This approach reveals an impressively long-term view on team reconstruction, and it offers the Jets plenty of chances to turn their roster over in a Lions-like rebuild. Think about how well Detroit nailed that 2023 draft with two first-round picks and two second-round picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell, Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch. Well, the Jets have two firsts and two seconds next year, too. A loaded draft class can fundamentally change a franchise’s future, and that’s what New York is pursuing. That … or a QB trade package. It’s too early to say anything definitive about the 2026 quarterback class, but if there’s a player worth the first pick in it, the Jets are in the driver’s seat to go get that player. Beyond the 2026 capital, the Jets have three first-round picks in 2027: their own, the Colts’ slot and the better of Dallas’ selections. In isolation, the Jets won both of their individual trades. Two first-rounders in return for Gardner, who needs to recover his peak form (not a sure thing!) in order to be worth that capital, is a solid move. I know others think the Colts dramatically overpaid, but I’m closer to the middle. It’s a good deal for the Jets, not a great one. But their side is the side I’d rather be on. The Williams trade, as I detailed above, is a clear and enormous win for the Jets. Williams is older than Gardner and plays a more fungible position — you can get quality DTs in the later rounds of the draft far more easily than you can get quality CBs — yet the Jets still produced a second-round pick and a future first. For general manager Darren Mougey, this deal is the masterstroke that might launch a successful rebuild in New York. Rebuilds don’t have infinite leashes, of course, and Mougey and coach Aaron Glenn are about to suffer through even more embarrassing losses to end the 2025 season. If they’re bad in 2026, miss on a couple of picks or draft the wrong quarterback, then none of the capital accumulation today will be worth a lick. But for right now, before the chips have fallen, the Jets have built as impressive a stockpile of draft capital as I can remember. That brings us to … Deadline loser: 2025 New York JetsTo be clear, I understand what the Jets are doing and why they’re doing it. But let’s wrench our heads from the pillowy clouds of theoretical trades and future drafts and return to the hard reality of the present. The Jets lost two excellent young players today in Gardner and Williams — two of the exact sort of players they hope to draft and develop over the next two classes. The only way to build such a hoard of draft capital is to trade legitimately excellent players, and that’s what they did. It feels rosy now, to gaze upon those three first-round selections in 2027 and consider what could become. But lest we forget about the Jets’ 2022 draft class which featured the No. 4 pick (Gardner), the No. 10 pick (WR Garrett Wilson) and the No. 26 pick (Jermaine Johnson), here’s our stark reminder: It is possible to absolutely crush a draft with three first-rounders and still fail to find team success. Then-Jets GM Joe Douglas got those picks right (and RB Breece Hall with the 36th pick!) and was still fired two years later, as both Zach Wilson and Aaron Rodgers failed to solve quarterbacking in New York. Picks and plans are gambles. You should try to make smart ones — and the Jets have. But we can say, concretely, that the Jets got remarkably worse on defense today. They lost young stars, All-Pro players still in their prime. We should not pull punches here. Some of the best players in football were shipped out of New York so that the new front office and new coaching staff could have a better chance — not a guarantee, but a better chance — of building a competitive roster. One that Gardner and Williams will never see. The team is worse than it was 24 hours ago — a lot worse. It’s understandable and defensible that it happened, but trading good players away is always risky. And it always hurts. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| CORRECTIONYesterday, we said that when QB ARCHIE MANNING was the number two pick in the 1971 draft, as the Saints only first round selection, he was chosen after Terry Bradshaw. Not true. An eagle-eyed reader in New Jersey reminds us it was Stanford QB Jim Plunkett who went first overall that year to the Patriots. Bradshaw went first, to the Steelers, the previous year in 1970. |
