@NerdingonNFL

Playoff percentage for each team halfway through the regular season (per the New York Times):

AFC

Chiefs 98%

Ravens 95%

Jaguars 87%

Dolphins 87%

Bengals 69%

Browns 62%

Bills 47%

————————

Steelers 44%

Chargers 36%

Texans 32%

Jets 16%

Colts 15%

Titans 6%

Broncos 4%

Raiders 3%

Patriots <1%

NFC

Eagles >99%

Lions 99%

49ers 96%

Cowboys 95%

Saints 86%

Seahawks 76%

Vikings 63%

————————

Falcons 31%

Packers 22%

Buccaneers 14%

Commanders 12%

Rams 5%

Bears <1%

Giants <1%

Cardinals <1%

Panthers <1%

This would make you think we are playing the final eight weeks to see if the Steelers or Bills get the final Wild Card spot in the AFC and for playoff positioning.

Even though we could say we saw it coming for awhile, still amazing to see the Lions with a 99% chance at the playoffs at midseason, while the Patriots are last in the AFC at less than 1%.

Two years ago, New England was 10-7 and the Lions were 3-13-1

ARIZONA

QB KYLER MURRAY is active and good to go on Sunday against Atlanta.  And good to go means an expected complement of runs.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray will return to the starting lineup Sunday against the Falcons, 335 days after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. He underwent surgery on Jan. 3.

Murray’s legs are as important to his game as his right arm, so the question now is: Will his running suffer after reconstructive knee surgery?

Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing isn’t concerned.

“He’s healthy; he’s ready to go; and we will put him in position to be successful,” Petzing said, via Darren Urban of the team website. “That’s always the nature of the franchise quarterback, and you see it around the league when they are very mobile, there is an injury risk associated with that. We have to manage that as all teams with elite quarterbacks do.”

Murray has 381 rushing attempts in his career, with 195 coming on designed runs, 186 on scrambles and the rest on kneel downs, per Pro Football Focus. He has played 3,770 snaps in his career, meaning only 5 percent of the plays he has run in his career are called running plays for him.

Murray will run, and he will get hit.

The Cardinals, though, aren’t going to treat him with kid gloves.

“Anytime he runs and gets tackled, no matter what the situation, from now until the end of time, there is going to be like, ‘Get up. He’s good?’” Petzing said. “Anytime you have a great player in that position, you feel that way to some extent. He’s so dynamic at it. He’s going to get tackled. That’s a fact.”

It should be noted – Murray’s torn ACL occurred on a scramble – but without contact.

And here is another reason to think the Cardinals will be better in the second half of the season.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Cardinals may have quarterback Kyler Murray and running back James Conner back in the lineup against the Falcons this Sunday.

Barring any setbacks in practice this week, Murray is set for his first game action since he tore his ACL last season. Conner has also been dealing with a knee injury, albeit a less serious one.

Conner played the first five games this season before being placed on injured reserve. He’s eligible to come off the list this week and the Cardinals designated him for return on Wednesday.

Conner will be able to practice with the team this week and can be activated in time to play against Atlanta. He had 68 carries for 364 yards and two touchdowns before his injury.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

While the Giants sit and absorb the cruel blows that injury has dealt their QBs, the Rams are taking a swing at former star QB CARSON WENTZ.  Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com:

The Los Angeles Rams signed quarterback Carson Wentz to back up an injured Matthew Stafford, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Tuesday.

The Rams made the signing during their bye week, giving Wentz time get acclimated to Los Angeles’ offense.

Stafford left the Rams’ Week 8 loss to the Dallas Cowboys with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb and did not play the following week against the Green Bay Packers. He was replaced by quarterback Brett Rypien, who completed 46.4% of his passes for 130 yards and an interception in his Week 9 start.

Wentz spent the 2022 season with the Washington Commanders, but was released in February with two years remaining on his contract.

Washington traded for Wentz, sending two third-round picks to the Colts in 2022, as well as swapping second-round picks with Indianapolis.

Wentz was drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles with the No. 2 pick in the 2016 draft, the same year the Rams traded up to the No. 1 pick to draft Jared Goff. Wentz was traded during the 2021 offseason after losing his starting job to Jalen Hurts.

QB BRETT RYPIEN was so bad, the Rams have waived him.

LAS VEGAS

Who is Antonio Pierce?  Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed of The Athletic with a long piece full of praise from other coaches like Tom Coughlin:

Antonio Pierce’s former coaches all made sure to tune in and watch the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday — because they all knew what he was going to do. The former linebacker was going to win his debut as an interim coach. And he was going to do it his way.

“He is a ball of energy and a guy that loves football and is always prepared,” former New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin said this week over the phone. “He has a little swagger about him. And he is always smiling, I don’t know if he has ever had a bad day on the football field.”

Pierce’s teeth were glistening as bright as his diamond earring Sunday afternoon when his players gave him a game ball for leading them to a win just five days after taking over for the fired Josh McDaniels.

His players had the right approach. His.

“Every team is a reflection of (its) head coach,” Pierce said on Monday. “So, if you’re not mentally tough — that’s what I pride myself on, that was my way as a player, to have that kind of mindset not to blink, not to worry about anything. And I just wanted to start that process with the gentlemen. They bought into it.”

Pierce is also a reflection of the different coaching styles under which he played and coached, from Coughlin to Gregg Williams and Steve Spagnuolo to Herm Edwards.

“What you’re going to see from A.P. is kind of a chameleon of all those guys put together,” Pierce said, “along with my personality.”

Pierce, 45, grew up a Raiders fan in Compton, Calif., and now has a chance to try and earn the full-time coaching job over the next eight games. He is 1-0 (the team is 4-5) and wants players to mirror the preparation, effort and aggressiveness he played with when he won Super Bowl XLII with the Giants.

“He has outstanding leadership skills and because of the work that he puts in, people will follow him,” Coughlin said. “He believes that if you study enough and play hard enough, you can win no matter who you are playing, and that’s the mentality you have to have at the pro level.”

“Players like him because he says it like it is,” Coughlin continued. “He doesn’t mince any words. And he will help them be the very best that they can be.”

Pierce, who went undrafted out of Arizona because he was undersized at 6-foot-1 and 238 pounds, only started nine games over his first three pro seasons in Washington. But in 2004, Williams, the team’s new defensive coordinator, plugged him in at middle linebacker. Pierce said Williams “always had us playing with an edge and with such a fire in our belly.”

“I look at him as one of my sons,” Williams said. “I am so proud of him. I still remember when I gave him his opportunity to play. He hadn’t played much the first three years, but he was the quarterback of my defense.”

Williams knows the Raiders quickly picked up on Pierce’s vibe when he joined the staff as a linebackers coach last season.

“Guys that are inside the white lines can smell bull—- a long ways off, and they know who Antonio is,” Williams said. “And when he speaks, they listen.”

After showing what he could do that season with Washington, Pierce signed a six-year free-agent deal with the Giants in 2005.

“We got him because he was a coach on the field,” Coughlin said. “He wasn’t the biggest or the fastest, but he was an excellent thinker and was aggressive and he could rally the troops.”

Pierce was a Pro Bowl-caliber linebacker and wore the green dot, so he’d earned freedom within the defensive game plan. Still, there were times when Spagnuolo, then the Giants’ defensive coordinator, would grow frustrated with him going off script and changing play calls. When Pierce made it to the sideline, though, he would have an explanation ready to calm his coach.

“He was always right,” Spagnuolo said last week. “He was ahead of the game. He was always trying to be a step ahead of the quarterback. The best thing about Antonio was, as a mike linebacker, he was always playing the game within the game.”

To say that Pierce was detail-oriented would not be detailed enough.

“He would call all the signals for you, make all the adjustments and was aware of everything,” Coughlin said. “How deep the back was set, where the offset was, how big the line splits were, what the offense was talking about at the line of scrimmage. … He knew all the nuances.”

Throughout the 2007 season — Pierce’s third with the Giants — he served as a connecting thread throughout team headquarters. He not only brought the defensive position groups together but made an effort to bond with the offense, too.

“Antonio could connect all of the rooms,” Spagnuolo said. “He was the kind of guy that could speak everybody’s language. He’s a natural-born leader.”

Alongside Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and others, Pierce helped lead the Giants to an upset win over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

After retiring from the NFL in 2010, Pierce became an NFL analyst at ESPN. But his yearning to stay in the game led him to the head-coaching job at Long Beach Poly High in 2014 — even though his TV duties often meant traveling to ESPN’s studios in New York. Often on those trips, he found himself popping into his old stomping grounds at Giants headquarters to check on players, coaches and executives with whom he’d kept in touch.

Pierce became a Giants coaching intern in the 2017 offseason under Spagnuolo, who had returned as defensive coordinator in 2015. It was only meant to be a learning experience, but Spagnuolo would soon find himself calling upon Pierce for a more substantial position.

Twelve games into the season, the Giants fired head coach Ben McAdoo and general manager Jerry Reese. Spagnuolo was named interim head coach and asked Pierce to help with the defensive front seven. Pierce was doing Spagnuolo a favor, but he was also preparing himself for what he would step into six years later with the Raiders.

“I think he’ll be great,” Spagnuolo said. “I leaned on (him) heavily as an interim head coach to take the pulse of the team, the players, where they were at and their mindset. I thought he was terrific in the feedback that he gave me. I’m sure he’ll use that same knowledge going forward with this.”

Herm Edwards and Pierce got to know each other when they were working as ESPN analysts in the 2010s. Edwards saw Pierce’s growth as a coach up close. When he decided to get back into coaching when he was offered the head job at Arizona State in 2017, he brought Pierce along as his linebackers coach and recruiting coordinator. Pierce was quick to build bonds with players.

“When you’ve been a player, you can see through the eyes of the players you’re coaching and you know how they feel because you’ve felt that before,” Edwards said. “You’ve been in their shoes. … He’s a good communicator. There was no doubt that, eventually, he was going to become a head coach.”

Edwards was an NFL head coach with the New York Jets (2001-’05) and Kansas City Chiefs (2006-’08) after learning under Hall of Famer Tony Dungy from 1996 to 2000 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Edwards planned to do the same for Pierce, hoping that he would one day succeed him at ASU.

In 2020, Pierce was promoted to associate head coach/co-defensive coordinator, then took over as the sole defensive coordinator in 2021. He constantly picked the brain of Edwards and fellow former NFL head coach Marvin Lewis, who worked on staff as a consultant. All the while, Pierce stayed true to himself.

“Generally, the personality of the defense kind of fits the coach, right? And A.P. was one of those guys that wants to be physical,” Edwards said. “He wants them to play fast and he wants them to play physical. He’s not going to complicate it. He’s going to make them understand, ‘We ain’t gon’ do a lot, but we’ve got to go.’ That’s what he presented to those guys, and that’s how they played.”

In 2021, Arizona State’s defense allowed just 20.8 points per game (22nd among 130 FBS teams) and 326.3 yards per game (13th). The Sun Devils ranked as high as 18th in the AP poll and finished 8-5.

But Pierce’s star didn’t rise as the NCAA launched an investigation into ASU’s recruiting. There were allegations of NCAA violations that investigators believed Pierce masterminded, and Pierce resigned in February 2022. When contacted about Pierce’s tenure at the school, a team spokesman declined to comment.

Pierce needed a fresh start. He found it soon after when the Raiders hired him as their linebackers coach. Unexpectedly, just 21 months later, that grew into a second chance to prove he could be a head coach.

“Everyone respects titles, but you, the person behind the title, you’ve got to earn their trust,” Edwards, who’s now back at ESPN, said. “And once you earn their trust, then they’ll follow you and they’ll believe in what you’re saying. So, he’s going to have to do that.

“But he gets to interview for the job right now.”

Pierce’s ability to tap into the human element with players sparked his growth within the Raiders organization.

“We wanted to do it for A.P.,” running back Josh Jacobs said after the win Sunday. “I think we all came to that conclusion. We all sat down and were like, ‘Man, no matter how this goes, we’re going to play with everything we’ve got for that man.’”

Pierce has said he wants to empower his players, and he made some fun changes during his first week on the job. There is a new mini-basketball hoop in the locker room. The “Soul Train”-style dance-offs before practice on Friday are back. And who could forget defensive end Maxx Crosby breaking out celebratory cigars for the team in the locker room after Sunday’s win over the Giants?

“You can have fun at work,” Pierce said. “Whatever they do in their locker room, that is their sanctuary.”

Although Pierce has given his team a lot of rope, he is more than capable of pulling it back. Remember, Pierce is the guy who once made his Long Beach Poly players run gassers at halftime while leading 63-9 because he felt they weren’t giving enough effort. Coaching grown men is different, of course, but Pierce won’t hesitate to dish out discipline if necessary to maintain his authority.

“Respect and trust are earned, not given, and every day is an interview,” said Williams, who has given Pierce advice as a former interim coach himself. “And that’s how Antonio had to live his life growing up in Compton and earn his career playing in the NFL.

“I think, with the basketball and the cigars, Antonio is recognizing what is needed. The players and he believed they needed to have some fun, and it worked. But timing is everything. There are going to be times when he needs to jerk a knot in everybody’s tail, but he has a great feel for it. And that’s why I think he will be great at this

BALTIMORE

LB ROQUAN SMITH with some cold truth as he sees it from the safety of the Charm City. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Roquan Smith had played his entire NFL career with the Bears before they traded him to the Ravens in the middle of last season, and after getting over the initial shock, Smith found himself delighted to be playing for a contender.

The Ravens are currently among the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, while the Bears are 2-16 since trading Smith, the worst record in the NFL over that time. Smith is glad to be out of Chicago.

“Man, it’s pretty crazy thinking back to when I was initially traded,” Smith told Abert Breer of SI.com. “It was bittersweet for me, just knowing Chicago and rightfully so. But if I would’ve stayed there, honestly, [I] wouldn’t have been able to compete for a title anytime soon. And then when I came over here, it took me a while, like a couple of weeks, to really realize how stacked this team was, as well as how many good people there are on this team, and how they just bring in truly good people. And when I just think about it from the perspective of having the opportunity to compete for one year in and year out with the talent we have. Man, it makes me so happy, just knowing my career is not going down the drain, in the sense of playing somewhere where I’m not truly competing for a title.”

Smith thinks the Ravens are the franchise he was meant to play for.

“That’s something I really pride myself on and just coming here,” Smith said. “We live it every single day. And it’s from top to bottom. And I just couldn’t be more excited just to be a part of a great organization that I am.”

The 26-year-old Smith signed a five-year, $100 million contract with the Ravens, and he looks poised to play the prime of his career in Baltimore. Just where he wants to be.

While the Bears are 2-16 since Smith left, the Ravens are 12-6 since Roquan arrived.

BUFFALO

Like many others, Sean McDermott finds his Bills inconsistent.  At the moment, the 5-4 Bills are below the playoff line.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

When they’re playing their best, the Bills are as good as any team in the NFL. But they haven’t played their best consistently, especially not recently.

The Bills have lost three of their last five games, and the two games they won were both narrow escapes on which they got away with uncalled penalties on the last play of the game. Regarding their most recent loss, Sunday night against the Bengals, Bills head coach Sean McDermott admitted that inconsistency is a major problem.

“Just too inconsistent overall,” McDermott said, via USA Today. “Not enough complementary football. Turned the ball over twice, I thought the defense got off to a slow start the first drive in particular. . . . Too much inconsistencies in the kicking game as well as just the offense overall. Some good plays and just not enough of them.”

McDermott acknowledged his team struggled to put it together for four quarters.

“I thought we got off to a really good start in a rhythm and then after that, it was tough sledding,” McDermott said. “And that can’t happen against a good football team that is known for scoring points.”

That can’t happen at all if the Bills want to be a playoff team. They’re good enough that they should be, but at 5-4 it’s no lock that they will be. And missing the playoffs with this roster would be a major missed opportunity.

THIS AND THAT

SANDERS WILL STILL BE COACHED BY SANDERS IN 2024

Deion Sanders is keeping his son QB SHEDEUR SANDERS with him at Colorado next year.  And why not?  The NFL might be a pay cut.  Charean Williams ofProFootballTalk.com:

NFL teams have scouted University of Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who is expected to be a highly rated prospect whenever he turns pro. The question is: When is he turning pro?

Sanders is eligible for the 2024 draft.

Colorado coach Deion Sanders, and Shedeur’s father, slammed the brakes on this being the quarterback’s final college season.

“Why would we when we’re having a great time here?” Deion Sanders said, via Steve Samra of on3.com. “When we appreciate and love where we are, it’s hard to look at somewhere else.”

Shedeur, who on3.com estimates has an NIL annual value of $4.6 million, has partnerships with Topps, Beats by Dre, Urban Outfitters, Mercedes Benz and KFC. He also has launched his own apparel line.

If he returns, Sanders will be among the leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy next year. It also would give him another year of playing for his father.

“Shedeur is a pro. He’s a pro in college football,” Sanders said. “I mean, he knows how to handle you all [the media]. He knows how to handle taking care of his academics. He knows how to act in public. I mean, he’s one with the game. When he’s holding up his watch and all that stuff, that’s fine to him. He’s a kid. You guys are trying to throw adulthood on him. I want him to enjoy his life, and his game. He’s a great. You don’t know him like I know him, because I’m his dad. He’s a great human being. He’s really a great young man. He’s good for the game. He’s good for his teammates. He’s good for college football.

“The way he’s handled adversity. We’re in the same book. We’ve always won. So this is tremendously tough, hitting this hurdle that we’ve hit. So, I don’t see him flinching. I don’t see him, no quit in him. No shutdown. He’s studying and preparing just as he would any other time. The same preparation when we were winning. He’s getting more treatment, because his body is tremendously sore. His body’s tremendously sore. He’s doing some of the things that he doesn’t do to go out there and make sure that he can be his best. So I’m proud of the young fella. I really am. . . . I’m proud of all the kids on the t

SECRET PREDICTIONS FROM NFL EXECS

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com has a gaggle of NFL execs who opined on the division races (and we would say there are 6 division races with Kansas City and Detroit, yes Detroit, prohibitive favorites).

ESPN marked the occasion by talking to a number of NFL executives, attempting to gauge where insiders believe the division races are headed, as well as the two teams that will still be playing football in February:

Dolphins or Bills in the AFC East? Opinions vary

Both Miami, which fell to Kansas City, and Buffalo, which came up short in Cincinnati, looked average in marquee games with statement potential Sunday, raising questions about a division once lauded as arguably the game’s strongest.

Miami has shown the ability to bully bad teams, averaging 39 points per game against .500-or-worse squads. That production dwindles against teams with winning records, where the Dolphins are 0-3 and averaging 17 points per game. The Dolphins are perceived as pretenders until they figure that out.

“They are like a Big 12 team — they are a tough matchup and can put up huge points at any time, but the games they’ve lost aren’t flukes either,” an AFC executive said. “They’ve gotten beat by contenders in multiple years, so there’s some truth to that narrative for now. But they have the personnel to figure that out, and you know Vic Fangio’s defense should only get better as the year goes on.”

Meanwhile, the Bills are shaky away from Buffalo, with a 1-4 record on the road.

One AFC scout says there are times when “everything looks hard on offense” for the Bills, who become overreliant on Josh Allen to make things happen in a spread-out system.

“But I still trust them — they are well-coached, have good players and teams still have to play in Buffalo in December, which is always tough,” an AFC executive said.

Added a veteran NFL scout: “They still need a No. 2 receiver. [Tight end Dalton Kincaid] appears to be that. Their safeties are old, losing [linebacker] Matt Milano was a killer and they don’t run the football. They’ve got some issues.”

The good news: Allen and Kincaid are developing a strong connection. Kincaid has a 23% target share over the past two weeks.

Lions more contender than pretender in NFC North

The Vikings are a great story. Joshua Dobbs running all over the Falcons without knowing the playbook after being traded to Minnesota five days earlier will forever live in 2023 folklore. And the Vikings’ four-game winning streak is a testament to what coach Kevin O’Connell is building.

But most people in the league don’t expect the Lions (6-2) to fumble their NFC North lead. Detroit’s offensive talent is as good as just about anyone’s.

“Could you imagine giving [Patrick] Mahomes Detroit’s skill guys? They’d be scoring a gazillion points,” an NFL personnel executive said. “Plus, they are solid all over, from the defense to the offensive line. Jared Goff has done a great job the last two years of protecting the football. I’m curious how they use both backs when David Montgomery returns. How do they use him with Jahmyr Gibbs together as the season progresses?”

While Minnesota largely is not considered a contender, some people in the league have lamented the loss of what could have been with a Kirk Cousins-led Vikings. With Justin Jefferson possibly returning alongside Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, Dobbs will have plenty of targets. Cousins was playing at a top-10 level before his injury. The Vikings went 51-39-1 with Cousins under center since he joined the team in 2018.

“With those weapons on offense and the offensive line playing better, they could have made a mini-run,” an NFC exec said. “Especially with Justin Jefferson coming back. Most defenses under Brian Flores play a lot of man [coverage] and need time on task to develop that. And you’re seeing them play better of late.”

Eagles still NFC East king, but Cowboys loom

Philadelphia’s 28-23 win over Dallas on Sunday validated well-worn themes for both teams: Jalen Hurts and the Eagles simply know how to win, even ugly, and the Cowboys have a roster to compete with anyone … even though such talent is often not enough.

“They are close, but just can’t seem to win those ‘got to have it’ games,” one NFL executive said Sunday night. “But they will be a threat in January, no doubt. They have too much firepower on both sides of the ball.”

Especially if Dak Prescott can relocate his play of the past three weeks when he needs it. It’s hard to find a hotter quarterback than Prescott, who has 950 yards, 8 touchdowns and 1 interception since Week 7.

“It just feels like if CeeDee [Lamb] doesn’t catch 14 passes, then they struggle to outscore teams,” an AFC scout added.

The Eagles are doing just fine with first-year offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, ranking in the top five of almost every statistical category. And Hurts’ impact on winning is real — he has won 12 straight against teams with winning records in the regular season. The only quarterbacks with longer such streaks since 1950 are Peyton Manning (2008-10) and Vinny Testaverde (1998-2000). But this year’s average margin of victory (7.9 points) is a slight concern.

“[The Eagles] still need to shore up the secondary — you saw that last night — but they are the toughest team to beat because of the way they dictate pace with their line play,” an NFL personnel official said. “In close games, they can always close it out by running the ball or making plays on defense.”

This year feels different for AFC North-leading Ravens

The consensus before Sunday: The Ravens are a realistic contender.

The consensus after Sunday, when Baltimore blew out another good team?

“They are scary,” an AFC executive said Sunday night.

That’s now a pair of 30-plus-point wins over good NFC teams over the past three weeks: a 38-6 drubbing of Detroit in Week 7 followed by a 37-3 Seattle sendoff to make Baltimore the clear AFC North favorite in the eyes of evaluators.

While quarterback Lamar Jackson’s growth as a passer under offensive coordinator Todd Monken is well-chronicled, it’s the defense that channels those great Baltimore units of the past. Baltimore leads the NFL with 35 team sacks and ranks second in yards allowed (262.6 per game) under second-year defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.

Couple that pressure with Jackson’s best supporting cast in years, and Baltimore looks poised for a breakthrough.

“Baltimore is legit. Quietly, the defense always has been very respected, but to me the last 2-3 years it hasn’t been as good,” an AFC personnel evaluator said. “But this year’s defense is matching up with just about anybody, and the new offense helps as well.”

Five of Baltimore’s final eight games are at home, where Jackson is 16-2 in his regular-season career in November or later.

But this is hardly a runaway division. In fact, Cincinnati might be better than last year’s group, after resounding back-to-back wins over San Francisco and Buffalo.

“They have an identity — they can always rush the passer, and they have multiple elite playmakers that Joe Burrow utilizes well,” an AFC exec said of the Bengals. “That always travels. And they seem to peak late in the year.”

After Sunday, four of the AFC’s top seven records belonged to the AFC North, thanks to Cleveland’s impressive defense and Pittsburgh’s resolve. If the Browns can knock off the Ravens this week, their profile elevates.

49ers sliding in NFC West, but not causing panic

While Seattle is a threat, most NFL observers expect San Francisco to secure the NFC West soon enough. The teams are tied at 5-3.

The 49ers’ three-game skid shouldn’t negate their Super Bowl aspirations. On offense, Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk have missed time recently.

“Do you really panic when you have all of the guys [the Niners] have?” an NFL scouting official said. “They still have the best players. I think they know they need all of their pieces around Brock Purdy. When you start winning, you want to give your QB more, but then he struggles without his top guys. I don’t knock him for that — even the best need help. It doesn’t make him less valuable, but that’s the way the roster is constructed.”

One concern from an AFC official: “If they get behind and the QB has to throw a bunch, is he good enough to beat you? The last few weeks have been a struggle in that regard.”

Multiple people tied some of San Francisco’s recent defensive struggles to losing two coordinators — Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans — to head-coaching jobs since 2021. That’s a lot of change for new coordinator Steve Wilks and the defense to figure out. The 49ers didn’t add a cornerback at the trade deadline but did add Chase Young, who will be motivated in a contract year.

Will the real Chiefs stand up in AFC West?

There’s little doubt who engenders the most trust to win the AFC West. For as long as quarterback Patrick Mahomes, coach Andy Reid and tight end Travis Kelce form an all-powerful trio akin to Voltron, the answer is easy.

But a few cracks in the foundation are showing. Kansas City’s 17 turnovers are tied with the Browns for the league high. Last year, the Chiefs’ 23 turnovers were tied for eighth most. And the Chiefs don’t have a wide receiver on pace for 800 or more yards on the season, which would be a first since 2016 for the organization.

Mahomes swears the Chiefs are close to putting it all together. Until then, he can rely on a top-shelf defense that hasn’t given up more than 24 points all year.

“They look like they are still figuring things out, and Mahomes has pressed a little,” an NFL personnel evaluator said. “I always trust them to get right over the course of a season. But there feels like more uncertainty there offensively than in past years.”

The Chiefs had high hopes for Kadarius Toney, who has a paltry 109 receiving yards.

“Rashee Rice will have to step up and be that guy,” the evaluator said. “Has to.”

The Chargers are considered the biggest threat to Kansas City. “Dangerous but unpredictable” is what one NFL personnel man called them.

AFC South-leading Jacksonville primed for high seed

The 6-2 Jaguars are sitting on a two-game lead in the AFC South coming off the bye. The remaining schedule is daunting with the 49ers, Ravens and Bengals on deck over the final six weeks. But Jacksonville proved capable in previous matchups with the Bills and Chiefs.

After a 1-2 start, Jacksonville is the league’s only undefeated team since Week 4.

When evaluators forecast future playoff winners, they look for complete teams. And Jacksonville has just about every ingredient for a postseason recipe: top-10 quarterback, proven head coach with offensive pedigree, a talented arsenal of skill players and an opportunistic defense. The cornerback tandem of Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams is considered one of the league’s most underrated. The defense ranks fifth in third-down rate and seventh in net yards allowed per passing attempt.

“Jacksonville is a bad matchup for certain teams,” a high-ranking AFC scout said. “Buffalo seems to be one. They always play them tough. Doug [Pederson] does a really good job with the offensive game plan. When you can’t get pressure with four, it’s hard, because he knows how to beat the blitz.”

The biggest threat to Jacksonville is, undoubtedly, Houston, which has intriguing receiving options for an ascending C.J. Stroud. The Texans are playing inspired football for first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans.

“[Stroud] has been way better than I thought,” an AFC executive said. “Really impressive. Proved me wrong.”

NFC South ‘anyone’s guess’

The only near certainty in the NFL’s weakest division is that the Panthers aren’t contending for a Super Bowl this year.

But the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons have shown glimpses of playoff potential. The Saints are considered the safest bet of the group, now that Derek Carr looks more comfortable in the offense over the past two weeks.

“Defense is sound, physical, big, offensive line very good, their running backs and wide receivers are dynamic,” an AFC personnel man said of New Orleans. “QB is streaky — they’d be a 12-4 team if he were more consistent in my opinion.”

Ravens, Eagles among trendy Super Bowl picks

The consensus after an informal survey for way-too-early picks: Ravens vs. Eagles. Philly vies for a third Super Bowl appearance in six years, while the Ravens would record their first appearance since the Joe Flacco-led Ravens got there in the 2013 season.

Dark horse selections include the Jaguars and the Bengals.

“Jacksonville should be in the conversation,” an AFC personnel man said.

And a separate NFL evaluator made this point about Cincinnati: “Love the Ravens, but if all things equal, two-minute drill, I’m taking Burrow over Lamar.”

MID-SEASON AWARDS

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com offers his ballot, at midseason, for the AP season awards:

Currently, the ballots for the Associated Press awards based on the full season consist of five MVP finalists and three for the other awards. We’ll follow that same approach here.

And here we go . . . .

Offensive rookie of the year: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Stroud has performed like few other rookie quarterbacks in NFL history. He has been spectacular, and he seems to be only getting better. It’s hard to imagine him not holding on and winning this one.

No. 2: Rams receiver Puka Nacua.

No. 3: Vikings receiver Jordan Addison.

Defensive rookie of the year: Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon.

He can do it all. He has already done it all. He could become a mixture of Ronde Barber and Troy Polamalu, sooner than later.

No. 2: Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter.

No. 3: Lions safety Brian Branch.

Offensive player of the year: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill.

Hill has been phenomenal this season. He’s still on pace to become the first player in NFL history with 2,000 or more receiving yards. And he continues to be a very real MVP candidate.

No. 2: Eagles receiver A.J. Brown.

No. 3: 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey.

Defensive player of the year: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett.

He has been dominant this year. If the Browns somehow finagle the top seed in the AFC playoff field, Garrett could be the first MVP from the defensive side of the ball since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

No. 2: Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons.

No. 3: Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt.

Coach of the year: Ravens coach John Harbaugh.

They scrapped the offense and installed a new one. And they instantly got better. Harbaugh, who has been one of the best coaches in the NFL since 2008, has done some of his finest work so far this year. In a season when too many “good” teams are barely beating lesser opponents, Harbaugh’s Ravens have put the entire league on notice by recently blowing out a pair of the NFC’s better teams, Detroit and Seattle.

No. 2: Jaguars coach Doug Pederson.

No. 3: Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell.

Comeback player of the year: Bills safety Damar Hamlin.

It was a given throughout the offseason that, if Hamlin somehow manages to return to the NFL and play in only one game after suffering cardiac arrest on the field in January, he’ll be the unanimous comeback player of the year. Through half of the season, however, he has played in only one game. He has been a healthy scratch for Buffalo’s eight other contests. For now, he’s the choice. If he doesn’t play much, or at all, during the second half of the season, it’s going to be hard to make him the first choice for the final award.

No. 2: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

No. 3: Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield.

MVP: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Jackson is making the transition from runner to thrower, and he’s doing it incredibly well. He has completed a career-high 71.5 percent of his passes. He’s still a threat as a runner. He’s orchestrating a brand-new offense to perfection. And if the Ravens end up with the top seed in the AFC, he becomes a clear choice for his second MVP award.

No. 2: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

No. 3: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill.

No. 4: Eagles receiver A.J. Brown.

No. 5: Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

Here is a Mid-Season All-Rookie Team from The Athletic:

Our NFL Draft staff voted, position by position, on the standouts to this point from the 2023 class. Who’s leading the way for the first-year players?

(* Designates a unanimous selection.)

Quarterback: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans*

Honorable mention: Bryce Young, Will Levis, Tyson Bagent, Aidan O’Connell

Maybe the easiest pick of the exercise. Stroud was the obvious choice before this past weekend, and his remarkable performance Sunday (which included an NFL rookie-record 470 passing yards and a game-winning drive) added a few exclamation points. He has more touchdown passes this season (14) than Dak Prescott (13), Joe Burrow (12) or Trevor Lawrence (nine).

Stroud also has just one interception on 279 pass attempts. The only other quarterback who comes close to that efficiency is Lamar Jackson (three interceptions on 253 attempts). With his poise, rhythm and accuracy, Stroud has been as advertised and then some. — Dane Brugler

Running back: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons*; Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions; De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Honorable mention: Emari Demercado, Tyjae Spears, Zach Charbonnet, Roschon Johnson

Robinson’s earning another unanimous nod (as he did after the season’s first quarter) is no surprise. He’s leading all rookie backs with 103 attempts, and he’s averaging a tick over 5 yards per carry. He’s also seeing an eight-man box on 37 percent of his rushes but has still produced 12-plus yards 12 percent of the time.

We knew Gibbs would be an asset in the passing game from Day 1, but he had a significant breakthrough as a runner in Detroit’s last game against the Las Vegas Raiders. He wasn’t just finding hidden yards out of draws and spread running schemes, either. His best moments came when he pressed the line of scrimmage and worked through traffic as a downhill runner. If that’s something Detroit can develop, Gibbs’ value will skyrocket.

It’s been about a month since we last saw Achane’s breakaway speed in action, but the other backs haven’t done enough to make up ground. Achane still boasts the league’s highest explosive rush rate (24 percent) and averages over 7 yards after contact. — Diante Lee

Wide receiver: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams*; Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens*; Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings*; Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts*

Honorable mention: Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jake Bobo, Michael Wilson, Jayden Reed, Demario Douglas

Despite having just two touchdown catches, Nacua continues to rank in the top five among all players — not just rookies — in targets (91), receptions (64) and receiving yards (827). He is also tied with Tyreek Hill at 16 catches of 20-plus yards.

Flowers, Addison and Downs are the only other rookie receivers with 40-plus catches and 460-plus receiving yards this season. It’s no mystery why these four receivers earned honors here. Addison’s seven TD receptions have him tied with Stefon Diggs for second in the NFL, one shy of Hill.

One more nugget: There are four NFL receivers with at least 40 catches and zero drops this season. Addison and Downs make up half of that group. — Brugler

Tight end: Sam LaPorta, Lions*

Honorable mention: Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, Michael Mayer, Andrew Ogletree, Brenton Strange

LaPorta recently broke Detroit’s franchise record for catches by a rookie tight end (43). His current 17-game pace: 91 catches, 922 yards and eight touchdowns, which would still leave him shy of Mike Ditka’s incredible 1,076-yard rookie season in 1961.

LaPorta is no longer clearly the best rookie TE in the league, though, because Kincaid (23 catches for 221 yards over his past three games) is also on pace for at least 80 catches with the Buffalo Bills.

We all told you this tight end class would be special. Despite some fits and starts, it has been. — Nick Baumgardner

Offensive line: O’Cyrus Torrence, Bills*; Darnell Wright, Chicago Bears*; Dawand Jones, Cleveland Browns*; Jarrett Patterson, Texans; Anthony Bradford, Seattle Seahawks

Honorable mention: Matthew Bergeron, Steve Avila, Paris Johnson Jr., Anton Harrison, Peter Skoronski, Cody Mauch, Joe Tippmann

It’s been a wild ride for the Bears this season, but Wright has provided at least one silver lining. The Tennessee product has been the most consistent run blocker in this class, regardless of position, and looks like a true keeper at right tackle. Wright’s work as a right tackle-only prospect made him a bit of a trickier evaluation in a very close offensive tackle stack last spring. Great work by Ryan Poles to pinpoint him as a potential foundational piece.

A new arrival on our list at the halfway point is Bradford, who didn’t debut until Week 3. The fourth-round pick from LSU has flashed an outstanding blend of power and athletic balance at guard, both in pass pro and the run game. We’ll see if he can stay healthy.

The biggest surprise remains Patterson. A sixth-rounder from Notre Dame, he has started eight games at center for the Texans, and while it doesn’t always look pretty, it has been effective. Patterson has yet to allow a sack, and he has given Stroud a steady presence over the ball. — Baumgardner

Edge: Will Anderson Jr., Texans*; Byron Young, Rams*; Tuli Tuipulotu, LA Chargers

Honorable mention: Derick Hall, Myles Murphy, BJ Ojulari, Tyree Wilson, Lukas Van Ness

We’re not hearing much about Houston’s risky trade-up for Anderson anymore, are we? At the halfway point, Anderson is second in QB hits and fourth in total pressures among rookies. His motor is paying huge dividends in the run game, too, as he’s second among rookies in tackles.

Short of Stroud’s incredible performance, Young is running away with the “best draft value” award in this class. The 77th pick leads all rookies in defensive snaps, pressures, QB hits, sacks and forced fumbles. Young is 25 and maybe topped out sooner than most, but this is what you’d hope to get out of a player near his peak.

And Tuipulotu is the walking definition of “taking advantage of opportunities.” He likely came into the season expecting to be more of a rotational piece, but he’s seventh among all rookies in defensive snaps and ranks second among edge rushers in pressures and sacks. — Lee

Defensive line: Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles*; Keeanu Benton, Pittsburgh Steelers; Bryan Bresee, New Orleans Saints

Honorable mention: Gervon Dexter Sr., Kobie Turner, Calijah Kancey, Karl Brooks, Dante Stills, Colby Wooden

What a coup it’s been for the Eagles to replace Javon Hargrave with a player who’s just as productive, if not more so. Carter has shared time in the rotation with the ageless Fletcher Cox and former Georgia teammate Jordan Davis, but he’s been better than both combined (29 pressures and four sacks). The best overall football player in this class looks the part.

Benton, meanwhile, saw a spike in his snap count last week — he logged two tackles and three pressures in 44 plays. The overall numbers aren’t gaudy (13 total pressures and one tackle for loss), but he’s proved an agile mover against zone-blocking schemes and just enough of an anchor against the run.

Bresee’s stats are helped by his great performance against the Carolina Panthers a month ago, but he’s been a value add for New Orleans’ run defense. — Lee

Linebacker: Ivan Pace Jr., Vikings*; Henry To’oTo’o, Texans

Honorable mention: Jack Campbell

It was hard to get super excited about the linebackers in the 2023 draft class, and so far we’ve seen why.

With 53 tackles, To’oTo’o is the only first-year linebacker to have 35-plus tackles at the midseason point — although he also has the second-most missed tackles among all NFL defenders. Pace’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but he has been the best all-around linebacker among the rookies with his ability as a blitzer and in coverage.

Campbell has seen more snaps for the Lions in the past few weeks. He could easily gain the top spot before the season’s end. — Brugler

Cornerback: Joey Porter Jr., Steelers*; Devon Witherspoon, Seahawks*; Emmanuel Forbes Jr., Washington Commanders

Honorable mention: Christian Gonzalez, Tyrique Stevenson, DJ Turner, Deonte Banks, Kei’Trel Clark, Jaylon Jones, Mekhi Blackmon, Julius Brents

Since his up-and-down NFL debut in Week 2, Witherspoon has not allowed a touchdown or catch of 25-plus yards over his past six games. He ranks second among rookies in pass breakups (six) and has been one of the better run-defending corners in the league.

Porter has locked down his side of the field, allowing a meager 28.6 percent reception rate when targeted. Forbes has had his share of low points this season, but he leads all rookies in pass breakups (seven) after an awesome performance against the New England Patriots on Sunday. — Brugler

Nickel/safety: Brian Branch, Lions*; Christian Izien, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Honorable mention: Jordan Battle, Kaevon Merriweather, Jordan Howden, Chamarri Conner, Sydney Brown

Branch has been slowed a bit by an ankle injury, but he remains the pick here after a hot start.

Izien is another holdover from our quarter-mark all-rookie team. He, like Branch, has had his share of hiccups in coverage, but he’s also flashed some top-shelf stuff. A seventh-rounder from Rutgers, Izien has two picks from the slot already this season and has performed as an active run fitter.

One of our honorable mentions, Battle, has performed mainly in a reserve role. He has also been asked to carry heavier loads (notably, versus the run) in multiple games, though, and has performed well on each occasion. — Baumgardner

Special teams: Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos*

Honorable mention: Xavier Gipson, Tre Tomlinson, Charlie Jones, Derius Davis, Tyler Scott, Jayden Reed

Mims (11 receptions for 246 yards and a TD) wasn’t far from landing as an honorable mention at receiver, too. The Broncos have to keep finding ways to get him the football because he’s a home run threat whenever he touches it. Look no further than his 99-yard kick-return TD against Miami or the 20.3 yards he has averaged on seven punt returns — if he had enough chances to qualify for the NFL’s leaderboard, he’d rank first in that category. — Chris Burke

Kicker: Brandon Aubrey, Dallas Cowboys

Honorable mention: Jake Moody, Blake Grupe, Anders Carlson

Grupe is tied for the NFL lead with 23 made field goals, but Aubrey (19-for-19) has yet to miss an attempt. Aubrey pulled an extra-point attempt early in his debut, a 40-0 Cowboys throttling of the New York Giants in Week 1, but he’s also been perfect there ever since (19-for-20 overall).

The former soccer player-turned-USFL kicker could wind up in the Pro Bowl conversation. It’s been a remarkable first half for him. — Burke

Punter: Bryce Baringer, Patriots; Ethan Evans, Rams

Honorable mention: Daniel Whelan, Lou Hedley, Brad Robbins

We had a tie in the punter voting. Baringer, a sixth-round pick, has the third most attempts in the league (46) and has averaged 46.9 yards while pinning 22 punts inside the 20-yard line; Evans doesn’t have the same volume (33 punts), but he’s averaging 48.4 yards per attempt. — Burke