The Daily Briefing Wednesday, October 6, 2021

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Clay Travis is puzzled:

@ClayTravis

I’ve probably been more critical of Urban Meyer than anyone in sports media. But the fact Urban is getting ripped more for a bar grinding session than Deshaun Watson is for being accused of sexually assaulting 24 women is madness.

Some thoughts in the comments:

@JTrichinotis

The biggest difference is that a video exists with the Urban case. If one existed in the Watson case it would blow that story up too.

@EatonSpenser

Not illegal to dance with someone! Clays point went way over tons of heads

@DaAnsahonSports

lol players get in trouble every year

Urban is the high profile coach of a team

How many coaches have you ever seen getting lap dances at 0-4 while team travels home.

Stop making white people victim to satisfy your conservative  followers.

@CoachTomlin  get crushed too

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Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com on the disappearance of home field advantage:

Home-field advantage no longer exists in the NFL.

Road teams have a winning record this season, going 33-31 through four weeks.

And that’s no mere blip. Last year, for the first time in NFL history, home teams had a losing record: Of the 256 games in the 2020 regular season, home teams won 127, lost 128, and one was tied. And in 2019, home teams went just 132-123-1, which was the worst cumulative record for home teams since the advent of the 16-game schedule — until home teams did even worse in 2020 and are now on pace to do worse still in 2021.

Gamblers and sports books were among the first to notice the decline in home-field advantage. For decades, the rule of thumb was that home-field advantage was worth about three points on the Vegas line. In the last couple years, that shifted to two points. It’s now around one point.

NFL teams seem to be getting better at silent counts to negate crowd noise, and better at finding ways to travel comfortably and achieve peak performance whether they’re at home or on the road. In today’s NFL, there’s no real difference to playing at home.

DETROIT

Another injury for the winless Lions.  Eric Woodyard of ESPN.com:

The winless Detroit Lions suffered another blow Wednesday when the team announced they’ve placed Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow on injured reserve.

Ragnow will miss time with a toe injury. Per NFL policy, players can return from the team’s injured reserve list after missing at least three games.

“He’s got, basically, a version of turf toe right now is what he’s got,” Lions coach Dan Campbell explained on Monday. “We’ll know a lot more this afternoon with him. I would say he’s probably going to be out, though.”

Ragnow suffered the injury during the first half of Sunday’s loss at Chicago. In the same game, the team lost outside linebacker Romeo Okwara to a season-ending Achilles injury.

The Lions are also dealing with key injuries to offensive tackle Taylor Decker, wide receiver Tyrell Williams, cornerback Jeff Okudah, and cornerback Ifeatu Melifonwu, among others.

Ragnow earned his first Pro Bowl berth last season and became the NFL’s highest-paid center this offseason.

DALLAS

LB JAYLON SMITH has been deemed expendable.  Todd Archer of ESPN.com:

The Dallas Cowboys have released linebacker Jaylon Smith, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

The move comes as a surprise because Smith has not missed a game in his career and the Cowboys are on the hook for his full $7.2 million base salary. The team had some trade discussions earlier in the season, according to sources, but a deal never came to fruition. By releasing Smith now, the Cowboys are free from the $9.2 million base salary in 2022 that was currently guaranteed only for injury.

Team owner and general manager Jerry Jones met with Smith on Tuesday to discuss the team’s decision, according to a source.

Smith signed a five-year, $64 million extension in 2019 that included $35.5 million in guaranteed money. Before this season’s opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Smith started every game he played from 2018 to 2020 and was named to the Pro Bowl after the 2019 season.

This season, Smith did not start any of the first four games. He was credited with 19 tackles and played in 148 of 264 snaps.

With first-round pick Micah Parsons making a huge impression early, the Cowboys were comfortable with the move, even with the financial ramifications. Leighton Vander Esch started Sunday’s win against the Carolina Panthers, and the Cowboys are expected to have Keanu Neal back from the reserve/COVID-19 list this week. They also have rookie Jabril Cox and Luke Gifford at linebacker on the active roster.

The Cowboys selected Smith in the second round of the 2016 draft despite a serious knee injury suffered in his final game at Notre Dame that scared off many teams. The Cowboys were confident Smith would return in part because one of their team physicians, Dr. Daniel Cooper, performed the surgery and quelled fears about permanent nerve issues.

Smith took to the field in 2017 and started six of 16 games and finished with 99 tackles, one sack, four tackles for loss, four quarterback pressures, two pass breakups and two forced fumbles. He moved into a full-time starting role in 2018, and he recorded at least 120 tackles in each of the past three seasons.

He had his best year in 2018, which included a 69-yard fumble return for a touchdown. He recorded 14 tackles in six different games, but his movement and coverage ability seemed to drop.

More analysis from Archer:

– Considering his comeback from a serious knee injury that nearly ended his NFL career before it could really begin, Jaylon Smith was one of the Dallas Cowboys’ best stories. At the end, the production did not match the story.

The Cowboys’ decision to release Smith can be viewed as a surprise because of what he was — a 100-plus-tackle-a-year linebacker with a Pro Bowl on his résumé and a contract that averaged $11.4 million a year — not what he is now, which is a backup linebacker who can struggle in coverage and does not run as well as he used to.

The timing of the release might seem confusing. Why did the Cowboys wait four games into the 2021 season to do this? Why not wait a little longer? According to sources, they had some trade discussions with teams about a deal for Smith and were willing to eat a good portion of his $7.2 million base salary, but nothing ever really came close to happening.

Plus, Smith’s $9.2 million base salary in 2022 was guaranteed for injury. The Cowboys did not want to take the financial risk, so they were willing to take the full cap hit of releasing him now. Next year, Smith will cost $6.8 million against the cap.

With how well rookie linebacker/defensive end Micah Parsons is playing, the return of linebacker Keanu Neal from the reserve/COVID-19 list and the good words defensive coordinator Dan Quinn had regarding linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, there simply wasn’t enough room for Smith, who did not help on special teams.

In former Cowboys coach Bill Parcells’ vernacular, Smith became a progress stopper — meaning Smith was in the way of other players who progress beyond him. The Cowboys like what Jabril Cox, their 2021 fourth-round pick, did in the preseason and believe he can be more of a defensive contributor as the season goes along.

PHILADELPHIA

Bo Wulf of The Athletic dissects the Eagles loss:

The Eagles never had any business beating the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Not when the visitors had the league’s best quarterback and the Eagles had a second-year question mark under center. Not when Andy Reid was looking for his 100th win with a second franchise while Nick Sirianni was looking for his second win, period. Not when the Chiefs were two years removed from a Super Bowl victory and coming off a Super Bowl loss while the Eagles were coming off a four-win season that exposed the misconstruction of their roster.

But crazier things have happened. And if the Eagles were going to pull off the upset, it was going to take following through on one of Sirianni’s oft-repeated mantras: mastering the things that require no talent. How else to shrink the sizable talent gap?

Alas, in the Eagles’ 42-30 loss that dropped them to 1-3, they failed over and over again to eliminate those unforced errors. Surprisingly, they were in the game throughout thanks to an offensive game plan that brought back the staples of their Week 1 success in Atlanta. They never had to punt. For a team in an admitted rebuild, that could be taken as something of a moral victory. Instead, a comedy of errors on offense, defense and in-game management left a salty taste in the mouths of Eagles fans as they wonder already if this program is doomed.

Let’s run through 10 of those mistakes that required no talent in chronological order.

No. 1 – Jalen Hurts misses an open Zach Ertz for a touchdown

This happened on second-and-8 from the Chiefs’ 16-yard line on the game’s opening drive. Hurts completed his first three passes of the game for 13, 22 and 21 yards against the porous Chiefs defense. Ertz flashed open down the seam for what should have been a go-ahead touchdown, but Hurts, with only a hint of pressure coming from his left, sailed the pass too high for Ertz. A missed opportunity, but everyone misses throws now and then.

No. 2 – The fiasco

On the play immediately following Hurts overthrowing Ertz, Hurts scrambled for 5 yards to the Chiefs’ 11-yard line, setting up a fourth-and-3. Initially, Sirianni left the offense on the field. He sent Greg Ward and Kenneth Gainwell on the field for Jalen Reagor and Miles Sanders with a specific play in mind. But as the clock wound down, Hurts tried to adjust Gainwell’s position in the backfield then frantically called timeout before a delay-of-game penalty was called. Then, bizarrely, Sirianni sent the field goal unit. Obviously, if he was willing to settle for a field goal, there was no use in wasting the timeout.

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Most likely, it happened as Hurts inferred. Sirianni thought a delay of game had been called, at which point he opted to settle for a field goal, which is why he barked at the sideline official when he found out the Eagles were still facing a fourth-and-3. Could he still have sent the offense back on the field? Perhaps. But the original sin here was for the offense to be scrambling as much as it was when initially going for it. That’s the result of the Eagles having a curiously conservative fourth-down identity under Sirianni thus far. More on that below.

No. 3 – Mahomes scrambles for the first down

We question this inclusion as stopping Mahomes might require talent.

No. 4 – The first touchdown comes off the board

Trailing 14-10, Hurts scrambled to his left and hit Dallas Goedert for a 6-yard touchdown after Goedert forced his way into the end zone. But Andre Dillard, making his second consecutive start at left tackle, was flagged for an illegal-man-downfield penalty, negating the touchdown

No. 5 – Hurts and Ward can’t connect

On the ensuing play, Ward entered the game and sprung open to the outside for what should have been a touchdown. Hurts’ throw was probably too far to the outside, but Ward was able to get both outstretched hands to the ball before failing to haul in the pass. What should have been an easy score led to a peculiar second-down play call that lost 4 yards and led to another disappointing field goal, robbing the Eagles of four points.

No. 6 – Two-minute mismanagement

Trailing 21-13, the Eagles got the ball with 52 seconds left in the second quarter. Starting from their own 11-yard line, they quickly moved the ball near field goal range thanks to consecutive completions of 37 and 12 yards to DeVonta Smith. With 34 seconds left, Hurts completed a 1-yard pass to Gainwell at the Chiefs’ 39-yard-line. Sirianni had to decide whether to use his final timeout to stop the clock with enough time to still use the middle of the field and spike the ball or to save his timeout. He opted for the latter, the offense scrambled to the line and then it let loose a free Chiefs blitzer who forced a Hurts fumble that cascaded down the field before it was mercifully recovered by Nate Herbig to end the half. Not exactly a lesson in mastering the little things.

No. 7 – Ertz drops a touchdown

Following their one takeaway against the Chiefs offense early in the third quarter, the Eagles moved deep into the Chiefs’ red zone still trailing 21-13. On first-and-goal from the 12 (following a delay of game penalty), Hurts threw to Ertz down the seam on a throw similar to the one he airmailed on the opening drive. This time, the ball hit Ertz in the hands, only for the veteran tight end to drop it.

No. 8 – A second touchdown comes off the board

Following Ertz’s drop, the Eagles faced a fourth-and-goal from the Chiefs’ 6-yard-line. Sirianni opted to attempt a field goal only for the Chiefs to commit an offside penalty. This time, he sent the offense out for fourth-and-goal from the 3. Hurts hit Ertz for a touchdown only for J.J. Arcega-Whiteside to be called for an extremely questionable offensive pass interference penalty.

Considering the dubious nature of the call, this wasn’t one of the Eagles’ most egregious unforced errors on the afternoon. But Arcega-Whiteside was on the field only to execute this play correctly.

No. 9 – Josh Sweat jumps early

In the fourth quarter, with the Chiefs up 28-23, Kansas City lined up for a third-and-6 from their own 40-yard-line. If we’re being fair, odds are they would have converted it. But Josh Sweat made sure to make it a little easier by jumping offside. The Chiefs then converted the easy first down and took a 35-23 lead five plays later.

On the day, the Eagles committed nine penalties, adding to their league-high total of 44.

No. 10 – A third touchdown negated

With a little over five minutes left in the fourth quarter, Hurts lofted a nifty 34-yard touchdown pass down the left side of the field to Smith that would have brought the Eagles within 35-30. Given the ease with which the Chiefs offense was moving the ball, the Eagles’ odds of winning would still have been long. But it would have just taken one crazy play to get the ball back with a chance to win. Alas, Smith’s touchdown was nullified because he stepped out of bounds before catching the pass.

Sirianni has a difficult job. He is not only a first-time head coach but a first-time play caller as well. His roster is barren, more so after the inevitable spate of early-season injuries. It’s reasonable to expect growing pains, that he might look overwhelmed at times.

Still, there is reason for optimism. Week 3’s baffling game plan aside, the offense has looked better than it has in recent years. The players seem to take to Sirianni’s leadership style. But in their litany of unforced errors through the season’s first four games, the Eagles look right now like a poorly coached team. We’ll see if that changes.

Can someone please explain … what happened to Lane Johnson?

Ninety minutes before the game, starting right tackle Lane Johnson was shockingly listed among the team’s inactives because of a “personal matter.” After preparing to start at right guard, Jack Driscoll slid into Johnson’s right tackle spot while Herbig played right guard.

“I found out a couple hours before the game,” Sirianni said. “I think Jeff Stoutland and Shane Steichen did a phenomenal job getting everybody ready to go. Jeff Stoutland, our offensive line coach, he’s got everybody ready to play in all these different scenarios if different scenarios happen. Well, we were posed with one of those scenarios today.”

Sirianni and the Eagles disclosed nothing else about Johnson’s situation. One simply hopes all is well.

WASHINGTON

Will the FBI tell the NFLPA what’s going on with WFT trainer Ryan Vermillion:

The NFL Players Association is seeking information after federal agents reportedly raided the team facility seeking information about head athletic trainer Ryan Vermillion.

The players’ union released a statement today saying it is concerned that the raid may reflect on the quality of care that players are receiving in Washington.

 “Our union has sent the NFL a formal request for information about the reports regarding the DEA raid of the work office and home of a senior medical staff member of the Washington Football Team,” the NFLPA said. “We believe this situation directly impacts player health and safety. The NFLPA insisted on language in our collective bargaining agreement that obligates clubs to adhere to all state and federal laws and regulations. We look forward to learning more so we can protect our players.”

The precise nature of the investigation into Vermillion has not been revealed, but the team placed him on administrative leave this week.

Vermillion came to the WFT after working for nine years with Ron Rivera in Carolina.  This is his 20^th season overall as a head trainer.  He was given the Fain-Cain Memorial Award for Outstanding NFL Trainer of the Year in 2016 and in 2003 he led the training staff of the year as voted on by his fellow NFL colleagues.  Now, he is on administrative leave:

“Ryan Vermillion has been placed on administrative leave due to an ongoing criminal investigation that is unrelated to the team,” the team said in a brief statement Monday.

Head Coach Ron Rivera said in an exclusive interview with NBC Sports Washington that he put his trust in Vermillion.

“The only thing I can say about Ryan is, I know who Ryan is. Last year I trusted Ryan with my health, and I would do it again,” Rivera said.

Rivera was diagnosed with squamous cell cancer in his lymph nodes in August of 2020 and finished his final round of chemotherapy treatments last Oct. 26.

When asked if he had received any questions about Vermillion from players, he said, “We’ll stick to the statement that’s been made, and we’ll focus in on playing football and try to stick to that.”

CAROLINA

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com calls QB SAM DARNOLD his most improved QB:

Most improved: Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers

Darnold has exceeded expectations with Carolina, perhaps even inside his own building. He performed pretty well in training camp — not bad, not great — but Darnold is thriving in a new environment, with ample weapons and playcaller Joe Brady putting him in manageable situations.

Entering Week 5, Darnold has 1,189 yards with 10 total touchdowns (five passing, five rushing) and three interceptions. To put that into context, Darnold had five rushing touchdowns in his three years with the Jets (38 games), and now, he is the first quarterback in the past 20 years to hit that mark through the first four games of a season.

“The guy was 2-10 as a starter last year. Now, he’s winning,” an AFC exec said. “It’s an impressive turnaround.”

Two schools of thought emerged among evaluators regarding Darnold’s failed run in New York. Either they still loved his toughness, arm strength and demeanor or they couldn’t shake the easy throws Darnold consistently missed. He ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every statistical passing category in 2020.

But everyone agreed on this: Former coach Adam Gase and the Jets didn’t support him enough, too often forcing him into a traditional dropback to figure out complex defenses on the fly. The Panthers, however, have stressed ball security and decision-making with Darnold, who is learning the power of checking down or taking off when passing windows close.

“I always thought that in the right offense, he would do really well. Like if he were on the Rams, he would be a star,” an NFC exec said. “He’s got a lot of traits with mobility and arm strength, and teammates love him. Carolina seems to be taking advantage of those.”

The next step is handling the blitz better. In Sunday’s 36-28 loss to Dallas, the Cowboys blitzed on four of Darnold’s first 10 dropbacks in the second half, resulting in an interception and a sack during that span. On the year, his 34.7 QBR against the blitz ranks 24th in the league.

Here are Fowler’s other accolades – without his full reasoning which you can get here.

Hottest start: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Cousins does certain things so well that a player often labeled overrated feels a bit underrated. He has seen a hot start because he starts so hot, completing 16 of 17 passes for 223 yards and three touchdowns on opening drives this season. He showed once again on Sunday against Cleveland that he is great on a script, completing all six passing attempts for 59 yards and a score to open the game.

We already knew he’s great in a clean pocket, with Pro Football Focus ranking him first when not pressured with a 94.1 grade through three weeks. And it’s hard to argue with his bottom-line production through the first month: 1,121 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception on 108-of-157 passing (68.7%).

“I feel like he always comes back down and doesn’t win the games he should,” an AFC exec said. “I just don’t buy him when it gets tight. But solid so far, no doubt.”

Most improved in a certain area: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Evaluators praised Murray’s spike in accuracy. He has completed 76.1% of his passes as compared to 67.2% last year.

Biggest statement: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

The season-ending ankle injury, the debates about whether to pay him $40 million a year, the questions about his status in the upper tier … all of that is fading now. ]

Most uneven start: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger’s name comes up most often here, partly because of the standard he has set. Even as Roethlisberger turned 39 in March, some evaluators still considered him a top-10 quarterback entering the season, figuring his experience and ball placement would overcome the increasing immobility.

But the vertical passing game has been an issue, with Roethlisberger completing 27.8% of his attempts 20-plus yards downfield since 2020. A player who once consistently drove the ball seven yards per passing attempt is now in the low 6s.

Most vindicated: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Stafford’s trade market was so strong back in January because the list of quarterbacks with his skill set is short. The Rams won out for Stafford in a deal with the Lions, despite several teams — from Carolina to Washington — making compelling offers. And his first month with the Rams couldn’t have gone better, leading the NFL with an 82.9 QBR, before the ugly, 37-20 loss to the Cardinals on Sunday. (He is now second to Patrick Mahomes at 77.9.)

Trending toward a big contract: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are ready to pay Jackson, and Jackson is playing like he’s ready to get paid. But he appears to be slow-playing all of this because (A) he is focused on the on-field product first and (B) he doesn’t have an agent to push this across the finish line.

Most promising starts: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, and Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Top picks from the 2020 draft don’t play each other this season, but they should be showcased in the QB pantheon for many years.

DB ASIDE – Oh, but they should play each other this season as the Chargers visit Cincinnati on December 5!

Most confusing start: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence’s confounding start is more about the struggles around him.

Sneaky MVP candidate: Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Most hopeful: Daniel Jones, New York Giants

The good news is Jones never has played better. The once turnover-prone passer has one interception on an end-of-half Hail Mary, and he just hung 402 yards on a rowdy Superdome crowd to beat the Saints.

The bad news is Jones never has played better … and the Giants still started 1-3.

Best throws: Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers could highlight this category just about any week, but Wilson deserves an invite based on his Week 4 performance and the ugly play he overcame to get here.

NEW ORLEANS

An ankle injury has sent RB TONY JONES to the sidelines for perhaps a month.  Luke Johnson of NoLa.com:

The New Orleans Saints offense sustained yet another blow, as No. 2 running back Tony Jones is reportedly expected to miss several weeks with a right ankle injury.

An ESPN report detailed that Jones could be out the next three to four weeks with his injury, which he sustained in the second quarter of the Saints loss to the New York Giants this past week. The Saints carted a dejected Jones off the field after the play.

Jones, who signed with the Saints as an undrafted free agent in 2020 and spent most of last year on the practice squad, beat out veteran running back Latavius Murray for a spot as Alvin Kamara’s primary backup.

In four games this season, Jones gained 77 rushing yards on 19 carries.

SAN FRANCISCO

PK ROBBIE GOULD will miss time with an injury and the 49ers make a Slye move to replace him.  David Bonilla of 49ersWebZone.com:

The San Francisco 49ers have decided on the status of kicker Robbie Gould. The veteran special teams player is being placed on injured reserve, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

Earlier today, Tom Pelissero reported that the 49ers are signing kicker Joey Slye to fill in for Gould.

Gould suffered a groin injury during pre-game preparations this past weekend, and the 49ers expect him to miss three to five weeks, per head coach Kyle Shanahan. Gould will now miss at least four weeks, as being on injured reserve requires him to miss at least three games. San Francisco has a bye week after this weekend’s contest against the Arizona Cardinals.

Gould is 38 years old and is in his 17th NFL season. The Pro Bowl and All-Pro kicker is in his fifth season with the 49ers.

Punter MITCH WISHNOWSKY filled in for Gould on Sunday and went 1-for-2 on PATs and missed a 41-yard FG.

KANSAS CITY

Guns have a habit of following DE FRANK CLARK around as he drives the freeways of Los Angeles County, but he tells a court he didn’t “possess” them.

Chiefs defensive end Frank Clark pleaded not guilty Monday in Los Angeles to two counts of possession of an assault weapon, the L.A. County district attorney’s office said.

The pleas stem from incidents in March and June of this year, during which Clark was arrested both times on suspicion of having a concealed firearm in a vehicle. The district attorney’s office told ESPN on Tuesday that Clark is due back in court on Jan. 17 for a preliminary hearing.

If convicted, Clark could face up to three years in prison. The district attorney’s office, however, indicated to The Kansas City Star on Tuesday that it is still unclear what sentence the department will ultimately seek.

Clark was arrested in March, along with another man, when officers said they found two loaded firearms in their vehicle after a traffic stop, the Star reported at the time, citing California Highway Patrol records.

Clark was also arrested in June in Los Angeles in a separate incident in which police officers saw a submachine gun in his car. Clark’s attorney, Alex Spiro, said at the time of his arrest on suspicion of having a concealed firearm in a vehicle, that the gun belonged to Clark’s bodyguard.

In July, the Los Angeles County district attorney’s office charged Clark with one felony weapons violation stemming from his arrest in March.

LAS VEGAS

Don’t spike the ball near an opponent bench, even if you never look at them.  Erin Walsh of Yardbarker.com:

Taunting penalties continue to wreak havoc on the NFL, and arguably the most controversial taunting call occurred during Monday night’s Las Vegas Raiders-Los Angeles Chargers game.

Raiders tight end Darren Waller was hit with a 15-yard taunting penalty because he spiked the ball after a catch along the Chargers’ sideline. He didn’t appear to be taunting the Chargers at all and was just celebrating his big catch.

After the game, Raiders head coach Jon Gruden said that he hates taunting, adding that he didn’t understand why Waller was flagged.

“I don’t understand the taunting. I hate taunting. I think it’s ridiculous,” Gruden said, according to Pro Football Talk. “I think what happens after an interception or a touchdown, we allow these celebrations, I consider that taunting. I don’t understand what happened over there on the Chargers’ sideline. But the official made the call, we have to deal with it. We couldn’t get any momentum going. That didn’t help us.”

Players, coaches and fans have shared their frustrations about the increase in taunting penalties since the season began, but the NFL doesn’t appear to be interested in telling officials to dial things back.

The Raiders went on to lose Monday’s game 28-14 and Waller’s penalty was only one of a number of things to go wrong for Gruden’s squad against the Chargers.

To be fair, Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa also criticized the officiating after Monday’s game, but he had his own reasons for doing so.

CLEVELAND

If you measure it by “analytics”, an ESPN.com survey says the Browns are the smartest team in the NFL:

The Cleveland Browns have taken over the title of the NFL’s analytically advanced franchise from a division rival.

When we surveyed analytics staffers across the league a year ago, they voted the Baltimore Ravens as the most analytically advanced — defined by a combination of the level of data-driven work produced and the degree to which that work is implemented in decision-making. But in 2021, the Browns were runaway winners, as voted by their peers in an ESPN poll.

This was the second year we’ve conducted a 13-question survey of the league’s analytics minds to gain a better understanding of the league’s quantitative landscape and how it is evolving. We sent the survey to an analytics person with each team, and 22 responded.

Some staffers left additional comments, and others were called by ESPN for contextual follow-ups. Participants were allowed to select their own team where applicable, and questions were asked with the understanding that they don’t have perfect information about other teams. All were granted anonymity so they could speak freely, and though there were 22 respondents, a few abstained from some questions. Let’s begin with the teams that seek and use analytics the most in today’s game.

Which NFL team is the most analytically advanced?

1. Cleveland Browns (17)

2. Baltimore Ravens (4)

3. Miami Dolphins (1)

Which team produces the highest level of analytics work?

1. Cleveland Browns (14)

2. Baltimore Ravens (3)

3. Buffalo Bills (2)

T4. Dallas Cowboys (1)

T4. Indianapolis Colts (1)

T4. Philadelphia Eagles (1)

Which team most incorporates analytics into its decision-making?

1. Cleveland Browns (11)

2. Baltimore Ravens (6)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (2)

T4. Green Bay Packers (1)

T4. New York Giants (1)

T4. Indianapolis Colts (1)

Cleveland received the most votes for highest level of work last year, but now it’s a clean sweep of these three categories in the second season of the Andrew Berry-Kevin Stefanski regime. The Browns are “making best use of resources and making every effort to gain a competitive advantage through analytics, so hearing it was a runaway was not too surprising,” said an NFC analytics staffer.

An AFC analytics employee added that Berry has “a very unique combination of people skills, general intelligence — obviously he’s got a strong IT and data science background — and he’s trained as a scout in the league. He’s got a unique blend of all those things.”

The Browns’ integration of analytics into their fabric is hardly a secret. It was first strongly embraced when Sashi Brown ran the team in 2016, then went dormant under John Dorsey and then came back to the forefront again under Berry. The Browns now have the largest analytics staff in the league, with a group that includes chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta — who began with Cleveland in 2016 at the start of the Brown era — and three vice presidents in analytics or with an analytics background.

Multiple analytics staffers posited that the Browns probably should have received more credit previously and that votes swung their way now that they are having success on the field. (Cleveland is 3-1 through Week 4.)

“They got a lot of criticism for a number of years, I guess a lot of traditional scouts would say they were so married to the idea of winning draft-day trades and acquiring future years’ draft capital,” a veteran analytics director said. “And they smartly did that and they’re kind of reaping the rewards now. Their roster is pretty much as talented as any you’ll find in the league top to bottom, and I think that’s directly a product of their ability to acquire so many valuable draft assets.”

The Ravens still earned a few votes for most analytically advanced and a few more for the degree they incorporate data into decision-making. The most obvious place this shows up is in their fourth-down aggression, which was on display in their win over the Chiefs in Week 2, when QB Lamar Jackson sealed the win with a fourth-down conversion.

“Andrew Berry leads the NFL in terms of acceptance and adoption of analytics. On the coaching side, John Harbaugh has the most buy-in,” wrote one survey-taker.

Which teams are among the top five most analytically inclined?

Cleveland Browns (22), Baltimore Ravens (22), Philadelphia Eagles (14), Buffalo Bills (12), Indianapolis Colts (8), Los Angeles Rams (6), Minnesota Vikings (4), San Francisco 49ers (4), Jacksonville Jaguars (3), Atlanta Falcons (2), Green Bay Packers (2), New England Patriots (2), Dallas Cowboys (1), Denver Broncos (1), Detroit Lions (1) and New York Jets (1)

The Eagles remained the No. 3 team on this list, despite an offseason report that their analytics department was at the center of an organizational conflict during the Doug Pederson era. A veteran director said, “It kind of comes from Howie Roseman down. He’s always been a proponent of analytics. I think, at least on the scouting side, they’ve always been pretty advanced.”

One front-office member was particularly impressed with the Rams’ ability to go against the grain, citing examples from limiting staff pro day and combine attendance to the pass-first approach they took to defense in 2020: “I love that they just seem that they challenge themselves in terms of their thought process.” Even if Los Angeles’ contrarian angles weren’t all analytically based, they felt that their openness to being different indicated they were likely open to using data to find an edge, too. Prioritizing the pass is certainly an analytical tenet.

“I’m inferring a little bit, but everything they did on defense last year, even what McVay was looking for when he was trying to find a defensive coach,” the senior staffer said. “The pass-focused part of it, which still is not the norm in the NFL. The norm is we have to stop the run first even though everybody knows it’s a passing league — I think it was progressive for them to act that way.” The staffer added that those who think outside the box are often the ones who find temporary advantages.

Indianapolis got some attention here, too. An AFC staffer said, “I hear the Colts do some interesting things with game management. I hear [Frank] Reich is really into it and those guys are really involved.”

Staying in the AFC South, the Jaguars have a large analytics staff, though many members have hybrid roles split between football and business responsibilities. This past offseason, the team hired senior vice president of football operations and strategy Karim Kassam, but he then left in what the team described as a mutual agreement just a few months later.

“I considered Jacksonville for another team but having people in the area doesn’t mean much if it’s Urban Meyer’s show,” wrote one front-office member. “See that as a mess where they don’t seem to know what they’re doing unfortunately. … They clearly have a divide in the building. I don’t understand why anybody puts a big investment in this stuff and then also entrust the most key roles with folks who don’t want to have anything to do with it.”

Lastly, in follow-up conversations, a survey-taker named the Jets and Lions as under-the-radar teams here, and another pointed to the Giants and Seahawks as potential top-10 clubs.

Which team in the NFL is least analytically advanced?

1. Tennessee Titans (8)

T2. Cincinnati Bengals (4)

T2. Washington Football Team (4)

4. Las Vegas Raiders (2)

T5. New Orleans Saints (1)

T5. New York Giants (1)

T5. New York Jets (1)

One voter abstained.

This end of the spectrum actually seems tougher for staffers to decipher. After all, being the most analytically arcane might be hard to spot relative to the competition. But there’s one way a team can stand out in this area: staffing. And that seemed to be a factor for why the Titans took the category.

Until recently, the Titans were the only team, to our knowledge, without a full-time analytics worker in their football operations department. That changed when Tennessee hired Matt Iammarino as assistant developer of analytical football research in August. Not having a defined analytics department doesn’t definitively mean an eschewing of analytics, but it is a strong clue. Plus, a veteran analytics employee noted that the Titans’ infamous 4th-and-2 punt from the Ravens’ 40-yard line in the fourth quarter of the team’s wild-card loss last year was a red flag.

Still, Tennessee was far from an unanimous vote. Cincinnati and Washington were runners-up here, and each have only one known full-time analytics worker.

“I mean, the Bengals are an easy target,” said an AFC analytics staffer. “I just know how their scouting department works, and you look at their directory online. They have one guy? Their decision-making isn’t quite there yet. I don’t know for a fact that they’re worse than anyone else, but they’re an easy target, and I’m probably right.”

PITTSBURGH

QB BEN ROETHLISBERGER will continue to start for the Steelers, but he knows he has not been an asset so far.  Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com:

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is accepting blame for Pittsburgh’s 1-3 start but reiterated his confidence in the team turning things around.

“I need to be better,” Roethlisberger said Wednesday. “I need to fight through and figure out how to make better decisions, how to make better throws, how to be a better football player. That’s why I just said I’m not going to quit. I’m going to keep doing that.

“I’m not giving up on this season. No one in this building is. It’s still early, and there’s still a lot of fight left in us.”

After Sunday’s loss to the Green Bay Packers, Roethlisberger said he dropped his elbow on some passes, leading to inconsistent throws and missed connections with his receivers.

But on Tuesday, coach Mike Tomlin revealed Roethlisberger was dealing with a “hip issue.” The quarterback said it happened during the game and affected his performance, but he expects to play Sunday against the Denver Broncos.

“It’s pretty sore,” Roethlisberger said. “If I showed you the picture, you might not be too well to your stomach. It’s a little black and blue.

“… As a quarterback, there’s so much involved in your lower body. People probably think as a quarterback or as a thrower, it’s ‘how’s your arm doing?’ Your arm is honestly a small part compared to the whole package. It’s your core. It’s your lower body. I’ve got to find ways to be better with my lower body. Going back and watching the game, a few times, a lot of throws I missed, were missed because my lower body wasn’t in sync.”

The hip issue is the second in-game injury Roethlisberger has suffered over the past two weeks, along with a left pec injury against the Las Vegas Raiders, but he downplayed concerns about his health.

“We’re all dealing with them,” he said. “We’re all dealing with injuries. It’s a violent game.”

Through four games, Roethlisberger has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions with a 64.1 completion percentage. His QBR is just 36.3.

But like his coach said Tuesday, Roethlisberger affirmed that the problems contributing to his up-and-down performance are fixable.

“I know that I can play better football,” Roethlisberger said. “I believe in myself. I know that no matter what’s going on, I’m going to fight my butt off to get a win, and if that’s the way I need to lead right now, by showing these guys that I’m going to do everything I can to win a football game, I’ll keep doing that.”

JACKSONVILLE

Andy Staples of The Athletic takes time off the college beat to bash Urban Meyer:

Jaguars owner Shad Khan doesn’t currently trust or respect coach Urban Meyer, but he remains confident in Meyer.

That is precisely what Khan said in his first public statement since Meyer was caught on video fondling a young woman (who most certainly isn’t his wife) while his wife — according to her Twitter feed — babysat their grandchildren Friday.

Here is Khan’s statement in full:

I have addressed this matter with Urban. Specifics of our conversation will be held in confidence. What I will say is his conduct last weekend was inexcusable. I appreciate Urban’s remorse, which I believe is sincere. Now, he must regain our trust and respect. That will require a personal commitment from Urban to everyone who supports, represents or plays for our team. I am confident he will deliver.

So no to trust, no to respect but yes to confidence? That’s about as believable as this:

“There was a big group next to the restaurant,” Meyer said. “They wanted me to come over and take pictures, and I did. (They) tried to pull me out on the dance floor, screwing around, but I should’ve left.”

That was Meyer’s story when there was only one angle of video showing him on Friday at a restaurant in Ohio that bears his name. The second angle doesn’t show anyone pulling Meyer anywhere. His fingers are the ones taking action.

Khan had an opportunity to pull the ripcord Tuesday on a situation that wasn’t working well before this incident but now has no plausible path forward. Perhaps Khan’s attorneys advised him that firing Meyer for cause could get messy and potentially more expensive if Meyer took legal action. Instead, Khan chose to keep Meyer for now, a decision which necessitated a statement. That statement makes no sense, but how could it? Even the most skilled public relations wizard couldn’t provide a logical explanation for this decision. The only thing the Jaguars can say is, “Oh well. We’re keeping him.”

In college football, where Meyer won three national titles and is regarded as one of the best coaches in history, they pretend the sport is a morality play until a coach wins so much that he can commit amoral acts with impunity or a morally sound coach loses so much that he gets canned. The NFL isn’t like that. Unlike college football, which also is a multibillion-dollar business, NFL teams admit they’re part of a multibillion-dollar business. So let’s strip moral questions from this situation and look at it from a cold business perspective.

Meyer, whose team was 0-4 following a Thursday night loss at Cincinnati, does not seem to be adjusting well to the NFL, where he can’t follow one Bosa brother with another and then sign Chase Young to keep one position room stocked.

Jacksonville looked woefully underprepared in a season-opening loss to the Texans, who were supposed to replace the Jaguars as the cellar-dwellars of the AFC South. They didn’t look much better in a loss to the Broncos. After they gagged away a chance to win against the Cardinals, they played their best game against the Bengals. Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence didn’t throw any interceptions. The game plan seemed coherent. And the Jaguars still lost. Afterward, Meyer seemed mystified as to how his team could play so well and still not be able to crack the win column.

“It’s heartbreaking. That’s a heartbroken locker room,” Meyer said Thursday in Cincinnati. “So we’ve got to get them back. They get a few days off, and obviously we have to get ready for the Titans. Those are good people in that locker room, though.”

Instead of returning to Jacksonville with those good people and working to find a way to create that first win, Meyer decided he had better things to do with his time. Everyone should be able to have a life, and no one should begrudge anyone a visit with the grandkids. But Meyer chose to put himself in a situation — at a bar in a town where he is recognizable to a huge percentage of the population — where at the very least he would have gotten legitimate questions about why he wasn’t back at the office trying to figure out how to help the Jaguars convert a fourth-and-1. At worst? You’ve seen the video.

If we’re looking at this from the business side, Meyer wasn’t thinking of the company that pays him millions to perform at a time when his performance absolutely needs improvement. So how can he tell players they need to dedicate themselves to the pursuit of wins when he clearly can’t?

For one and only one reason, Meyer is lucky he’s in the NFL and not college football right now. As a college coach, he might have lost the locker room. And college players can tank to get rid of a coach they don’t trust or respect because they don’t have to worry about the next guy coming in and cutting most of them. NFL players won’t do that. Most can’t afford bad tape. So Meyer probably will get maximum effort from the Jaguars this week. Will that be good enough to beat the Titans, who lost to the Jets on Sunday? Recent history suggests no.

There also is the matter of Meyer’s history. He tends to manufacture a lot of his own chaos. At Florida, his program lacked discipline off the field, and the result was a series of arrests of his players. At Ohio State, Meyer repeatedly covered for an assistant accused of domestic abuse until he finally got called out on it publicly. The difference between those two stops and this one? The chaos came later, and the wins came sooner. In Jacksonville, Meyer pressed the self-destruct button before he could win enough games to provide cover for himself. That should set off alarm bells for Khan. Usually, this doesn’t happen until much later. So what fresh hell is around the corner?

And please, stop with the assumptions that Meyer is trying to get himself fired to take the USC job, which opened when Clay Helton was fired last month. Had USC wanted Meyer, it could have fired Helton after 2019 and hired Meyer. And if Meyer had any hope of coaching a premier college football team after this NFL experiment ends, he nuked it at the bar last Friday. So his best shot is to try to make it work in Jacksonville.

According to Khan, Meyer will have a chance to earn back the trust and respect of the Jaguars. Perhaps Meyer should start with his No. 1 overall draft pick, whose name he dragged into this mess on Monday during his apology. “I remember when Trevor told me he was going to Vegas for his bachelor party,” Meyer said. “I was like, ‘My gosh, man. Be careful. Surround yourself.’ Because I’ve seen this happen.”

Given their histories as public figures, Meyer probably should be seeking advice from Lawrence instead of giving it. Lawrence, for his part, should be incensed that Meyer would even utter his name in a discussion of a screw-up that is Meyer’s and Meyer’s alone. If Khan is seeking guidance going forward in this situation, Lawrence might be a good person to ask. As a top-pick QB with rare arm talent, he’s probably more important to the organization than anyone except the owner.

Besides, Lawrence probably will be around Jacksonville a lot longer than Meyer will. The trust and respect, according to the owner, are already gone. So how much longer can the confidence possibly last?

Here is what Meyer had to say on Wednesday, amplified by Mike Florio:

Jaguars coach Urban Meyer met with reporters on Wednesday, a day after team owner Shad Khan issued a stunning statement that called Meyer’s future and his ability to lead the team into serious question.

Among other things, Meyer was asked whether he regrets not returning with the team to Jacksonville after Thursday night’s loss to the Bengals. Obviously, Meyer remaining in Ohio laid the foundation for the events that have created this week’s crisis situation. Regardless of the things that happened in Ohio, his decision to not return with the team and get back to work has been regarded by many as inappropriate if not unprecedented.

 “I thought at the time, now that maybe I thought it through, but I thought at the time this was a chance for everybody to clear their head, including myself,” Meyer said. “With my family located where we were, to go spend a day or two with them and then get back. Because I knew I wanted them to get out of Dodge, too, and clear their heads.”

The problem with that explanation comes from the answer Meyer gave to the question immediately before it. Asked whether he secured approval from Khan to stay in Ohio for a day or two after the game, Meyer said, “I discussed it with [G.M.] Trent [Baalke] way in advance.”

So which is it? Was the mini-vacation with his family in Ohio after a game played in Ohio planned “way in advance,” or was it something deemed necessary to “clear [his] head” after a heartbreaking loss?

Meyer also said he has given no thought to resigning, and that he wasn’t fined by Khan. As to whether the situation will be a distraction on Sunday against the Titans, Meyer said, “I’m in a fight to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

Meyer concluded the press conference with a message to the fans and owner Shad Khan.

“Why did I decide to come out of what I was doing and do this? Our owner, I just became — I admire the guy so much. He’s become a friend, he’s a guy that I, like I said, I just admire. Jacksonville, I know very well. I know our fans have been hanging in there with us, and I apologize to them. And I wanted to make that perfectly clear.”

It was smart for him to do that. He needs to send a perfectly clear message to the fans now, because there’s a chance they will be sending a perfectly clear message to him on Sunday. And he may not like the contents of it.

NEW ENGLAND

CB STEPHON GILMORE is gone.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Stephon Gilmore is about to hit free agency.

The Patriots have decided to cut Gilmore, who has been unhappy with his contract and has spent this season on the physically unable to perform list, Gilmore revealed on social media.

Although it was well known that the Patriots and Gilmore were far apart in contract talks, the decision to release him now comes as a complete surprise.

It’s unclear how soon Gilmore will be able to play after a quadriceps injury has sidelined him so far this season, but suffice to say that when he’s healthy, he’ll be a very attractive option for multiple NFL teams. Gilmore will likely want to play for a contender, and the Buccaneers are a team that have an obvious need at cornerback. Bucs coach Bruce Arians has stated that Tom Brady makes Tampa Bay an attractive free agent destination for veteran players, and Gilmore would surely have interest in joining his old teammate.

Gilmore, who will turn 32 this month, was the NFL’s defensive player of the year in 2019.

THIS AND THAT

MVP RACE

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com with a deep dive (even heavily edited as below it is long) into the state of the 2021 MVP race.  After all that thought, he ends up about where most of us would be in five seconds:

In thinking about possible NFL Most Valuable Player candidates, I realized how different the 2021 season looks from last year’s campaign. This is a season for parity. At this time a year ago, six teams had started 4-0. All six made the playoffs, unsurprisingly. This season, we have just one 4-0 team, and of all the candidates we would have thrown out as potential 4-0 starters before the season, it’s the Arizona Cardinals. The last time we saw just one team standing undefeated after Week 4 was 2017, when it was the Alex Smith-led Chiefs getting off to a hot start.

What happens in September (and the beginning of October) matters, but it can get lost in the shuffle of a full season. Go back to my quarter-season awards from 2020 and the top three was instructive. No. 3 was Josh Allen, who was coming off what looked like the hottest four-game run of his career. He kept that up and was a legitimate candidate by the end of the season. No. 2 was Aaron Rodgers, who eventually won the award. No. 1 was Russell Wilson. It was impossible to talk about him last fall without bringing up how he had never received an MVP vote before being the favorite for the first half of the season. After his second-half decline, Wilson failed to get a vote in the 2020 race, either.

Let’s sort through the candidates for the NFL’s MVP through four weeks. This isn’t who I think would win the award if it went to a vote this afternoon — or who is likely to win at the end of the season — but my thoughts on who should win the award if we were deciding it after four games.

Are there any non-quarterbacks who deserve consideration?

It would take something truly special and likely record-setting to get a non-quarterback on the podium.

Through four games, I can think of three non-quarterback candidates who might get some attention:

Browns defensive end Myles Garrett leads the league with six sacks through four games, including a 4.5-sack effort against a hapless Bears front in that Week 3 blowout. The single-game concentration obviously tells us that it might be tough for him to keep this sort of sack rate up in the weeks to come without the Bears on the schedule, but Garrett has been consistently productive ever since entering the league. Since being drafted No. 1 overall in 2017, he has averaged 0.88 sacks per game, which prorates out to approximately 15 sacks over a 17-game season. He’s not far enough ahead of the competition to get on the ballot here, but it’s a start.

To have a shot at winning MVP in the real world, Garrett needs to set the single-season sack record, which would require him to top Michael Strahan’s 22.5 sacks from 2001.

Titans running back Derrick Henry is really the only superstar running back living up to expectations after a difficult first quarter of the season. Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook have been hurt, Alvin Kamara’s role in the passing game has disappeared, Ezekiel Elliott has been inconsistent and Saquon Barkley wasn’t 100 percent early in the year. Aaron Jones is the closest competition to Henry, but the Tennessee star has 510 rushing yards, 148 ahead of anybody else. Is that the sort of dominance we’re looking for?

If you’re a traditionalist, maybe. Henry is carrying the Titans on offense, but he has been more about volume than anything else through four games.

Henry’s ability to shoulder that workload is special, but it’s hard to argue that he’s efficient when a back such as Jonathan Taylor has produced nearly as many first downs (20) on nearly half the number of carries (58).

Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs would be my pick of the non-quarterbacks. Being able to flip the field and earn a possession for your team is extremely valuable, and Diggs has done that five times in four games with interceptions.

The quarterbacks on the fringe

Let’s move on to the quarterbacks. We can leave out anybody who hasn’t started and finished four games, which costs Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater his spot

Josh Allen has looked better over the past two weeks, particularly in the blowout win over Washington, but the Bills quarterback wasn’t good in Weeks 1 and 2 and hasn’t been as accurate as he was last season.

Aaron Rodgers continues to make the same immaculate throws we saw a year ago, but the disastrous start the Packers quarterback had against the Saints in the opener makes up a quarter of his seasonal production so far. \

Tom Brady’s numbers are dragged down by a difficult performance in Sunday’s narrow victory over the Patriots.

Lamar Jackson has already produced 10.6 expected points on the ground, which is third in the league behind Allen and Patrick Mahomes. What has been more interesting is the change the 2019 MVP has made as a passer. Jackson’s completion percentage is down to 60.5%, but he has made up for that gap by picking up 8.7 yards per throw, which ranks sixth in the NFL and is significantly higher than his prior career average of 7.5 yards per attempt.

Sam Darnold got off to a hot start against some of the league’s worst teams — and his five rushing touchdowns are one of the great bizarre stats of this campaign — but the Panthers quarterback wasn’t on the same level against tougher competition in Dallas. \

Derek Carr threw for 1,203 yards over the first three games of the season — and the Raiders have been one of the league’s most explosive offenses — but the Chargers shut down Carr & Co. in Week 4.

This might be criminal to say in a universe in which Patrick Mahomes exists, but I don’t think any quarterback looks better throwing the ball on a pass-by-pass basis right now than Justin Herbert. No one has more zip on their passes, and with Allen’s accuracy slipping, Herbert looks more like 2020 Allen than the real thing does in 2021. His decision-making has been spotty, though, as he has already thrown three picks. He’s also averaging just 7.2 yards per attempt, which ranks 18th in the NFL. Herbert has made major strides, but he’s somewhere in the seven to eight range for now.

Ranking the top five early favorites

5. Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Prescott has come back from last year’s broken ankle and gotten right back to picking apart opposing defenses with some of the most accurate throws in the league. He’s completing 75.2% of his passes, which is 7.3% above expectation. He has an excellent one-two punch at wide receiver in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, but he has made guys such as Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz look like impact receivers in the Dallas offense. The only passer who’s completing passes over expectation at a higher rate through four weeks is Kyler Murray.

Where Prescott comes up short is with the other stuff. Averaging 8.0 yards per attempt is comfortably above the league average, but the other quarterbacks in the top five are averaging a combined 9.2 yards per attempt. Whether it’s the after-effects of his ankle injury or a small sample, Prescott has also had some ugly plays as a runner, as his 17 carries have produced minus-5.3 rushing EPA, with a fourth-and-goal stuff and a pair of fumbles on aborted snaps. He has also been strip-sacked twice. His return from a serious injury has been remarkable, but the 28-year-old has had more negative plays than other guys on this list through four weeks.

4. Russell Wilson, Seahawks

Wilson is the league’s most efficient quarterback through four games. He leads the league in all kinds of per-play metrics, including yards per attempt (9.6), adjusted yards per attempt (11.2) and passer rating (129.9). Wilson also has the best touchdown-to-interception ratio at 9:0.

Advanced metrics aren’t quite as enthused about Wilson’s play, though. His 60.9 Total QBR ranks 10th in the NFL, and he’s fifth in this group among expected points per play. The big problem, as has been the case in years past, is sacks. He has been taken down 11 times, with six of those coming on third down. By ESPN’s expected points model, the sacks have cost the Seahawks nearly 4.7 points, more than any other quarterback we’ve mentioned in this piece.

Another factor Wilson is missing is sheer volume. The four other quarterbacks in the top five have thrown the ball an average of just under 136 times through four games. Wilson has thrown the ball just 109 times. Owing to their style and a defense that has struggled to get off the field, the Seahawks are playing at one of the slowest paces in the league; they’re averaging a league-low 52.8 offensive snaps per game against a league average of 63.5 snaps per contest. The disparity isn’t Wilson’s fault, but it limits just how productive he can be, even with remarkable efficiency.

3. Matthew Stafford, Rams

Stafford is off to a blinding start in his new home. Blessed with a new coach and the best players he has enjoyed since the heyday of Calvin Johnson, the 2009 No. 1 overall pick is on pace for career highs in both completion percentage (68.1%) and yards per attempt (9.1). Unlike Wilson, Stafford has also been able to avoid sacks, taking just three through the first four games despite facing the Bears, Bucs and Cardinals. As a result, he leads the NFL in adjusted net yards per attempt, a stat that incorporates sacks and sack yardage, by averaging 8.6 yards per pass play.

Unlike the other passers on this list, though, Stafford is not outproducing what would be expected by Next Gen Stats. His completion percentage over expectation is minus-0.1%, which stands out among a group whose CPOE ranges from plus-4.1% (Mahomes) to plus-9.2% (Murray). Strangely, Stafford has been well above average on throws downfield, but his CPOE on throws behind the line (minus-0.8%) and throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (minus-4.4%) has been underwhelming. Some of that might come down to drops, as Stafford’s receivers have dropped passes at a higher rate than either of the guys in the top two.

The other missing factor has to do with what most of the top-tier quarterbacks in the NFL can offer these days: rushing value. Stafford’s passing numbers are right in line with the top two quarterbacks, but when you strip out kneel-downs, he has run the ball eight times for 25 yards. You’re essentially getting some sneaks and the occasional scramble for a first down from Stafford, but he has one run for 20-plus yards over the past decade. Mahomes already has one this season, while Murray had seven such runs a year ago. Without that rushing value, Stafford needs to be the best pure passer in football by a meaningful margin to be the MVP.

We’re left with two guys who are neck-and-neck in Mahomes and Murray. Picking between the two depends on which rate metrics you might feel to be most valuable:

Mahomes Vs. Murray For MVP

PLAYER           CMP%  Y/ATT   RATING            ANY/A  QBR     CPOE   EPA/PLAY

Mahomes          72.3%   8.6        119.6                 8.8       82.8      +4.1%   0.21

Murray               76.1%  9.5        115.0                 8.6       74.5      +9.2%   0.19

Given our perceptions of each player heading into 2021, it feels like Murray is almost playing more like Mahomes and vice versa. Murray has been dominating teams with deep passes, going 18-of-27 for 544 yards and three touchdowns (with three picks). His CPOE there is 23% above expectation, the best in football. Impressively, just three of those 18 completions have gone to DeAndre Hopkins; the other 15 throws have been to Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore and Maxx Williams. The Cards were too dependent on Murray and Hopkins to be magical last season; now, Murray can make Green and Williams look like difference-makers.

Mahomes has instead been nearly twice as productive as Murray as a runner, producing 10.8 rushing EPA across just 15 rushing attempts. The 2018 MVP got back to his old self with a huge game throwing deep to Tyreek Hill against the Eagles, but as I mentioned after Week 3, the Chiefs have generally been beating teams on offense with ruthless efficiency as opposed to the devastating downfield attack we usually associate with them. Nearly half of Mahomes’ pass attempts are producing first downs (48.2%), which is 4.6 percentage points ahead of Prescott in second place. The last time a quarterback was hitting first downs that frequently was Peyton Manning during his 55-touchdown season in 2013, and that might be the greatest season a quarterback has ever produced.

Frankly, there’s no right (or wrong) answer here. You could make a case for either player. Murray doesn’t have the one-two punch of Hill and Travis Kelce, although Hopkins is an incredible alternative. You could also argue that Murray has gotten more help from his teammates, given that they’ve dropped a league-low 0.7% of his pass attempts so far. I think Murray would be the sentimental pick having not won an MVP so far in his career, and I would have no issue with anybody choosing the Cardinals quarterback. Fans and voters tend to prefer the guy who has raised his game to the one who has continually played at a high level. By the narrowest of margins, I’m opting for the guy who has been doing this for the entirety of his career.

2. Kyler Murray, Cardinals

1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs