THE DAILY BRIEFING
| Interesting. There are five teams favored by around 10 points this week.
Four lost in Week 1 – Rams, 49ers, Broncos, Packers.
Two of those four (49ers, Packers) are favored by 10+ over a team that won (Seahawks, Bears) last week.
And another of those losers (Broncos) is a 10-point favorite over a team that tied.
Two 10-point underdogs (Seahawks, Bears) each won over one of the 10-point favorites.
LA RAMS -10.5 vs Atlanta
SAN FRANCISCO -10.0 vs Seattle
DENVER -10.0 vs Houston
GREEN BAY -10.0 vs Chicago
BUFFALO -10.0 vs Tennessee
– – –
It’s a small sample size, but here is a report on teams that changed quarterbacks:
With a big money QB in the lineup: 0-1 (Denver)
With big money QB suspended: 1-0 (Cleveland – also low cost import)
With medium cost QB imported 1-1-1 (Washington, Indianapolis, Carolina)
With low cost QB imported: 2-1 (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Cleveland)
With low cost/young QB promoted: 1-1 (Seattle, San Francisco)
– – –
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com has his Week 1 wrapup:
Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season wasn’t always pretty, but you can’t knock the entertainment value. Seven of the 13 games in the two afternoon windows were one-score games, and an eighth was a tie. Five were decided by scores in the final two minutes. Multiple teams missed what would have been game-winning field goals, while another was stymied by a blocked extra point. The Chiefs and Ravens were back to their old selves, but the story of the week was upheaval.
Seven playoff teams from last season lost Sunday afternoon, with four losses coming against teams that missed the postseason a year ago. Both No. 1 seeds from 2021 were defeated. After the Rams lost in the season opener Thursday, their opponents in the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers, were dispatched amid 2 inches of standing rain by the lowly Bears. The AFC champion Bengals lost in a far more agonizing manner.
He goes on to see if those seven playoff teams should panic. We have his conclusions for four of them (San Francisco, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Tennessee) below with the team. You can read his reasoning for the others here: |
| NFC NORTH |
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DETROIT
Hurray for Dan Campbell’s Lions! They are a betting favorite Sunday for the first time in 25 games.
If the betting odds hold, the Detroit Lions will be in unfamiliar territory Sunday at home against the Washington Commanders.
After playing in 24 consecutive games as an underdog, the longest active streak in the NFL, the Lions are currently 2 1/2-point favorites against the Commanders, according to Caesars Sportsbook.
The Lions’ streak is the team’s longest in the Super Bowl era.
The last time Detroit was favored was Nov. 22, 2020, when it was a 1-point favorite on the road against quarterback PJ Walker and the Carolina Panthers. The Lions went on to lose 20-0.
The New York Giants hold the second-longest active streak as an underdog at 15 straight games. They are currently 2 1/2-point favorites for Sunday’s game against the Panthers, according to Caesars Sportsbook.
Detroit (0-1) is looking to redeem itself after a 38-35 loss to Philadelphia in the season opener. The Lions have won five of their past six games against Washington.
We would note that Washington is 1-0 and looked decent against Jacksonville. So the Lions are not favored against a crippled team like the Joe Flacco-led Jets. |
|
GREEN BAY
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com takes stock of the Packers after their Week 1 loss to the Vikings:
Week 1 result: Lost 23-7 to Minnesota Vikings
The Packers, too, are counting on Week 1 being an aberration for the second consecutive season. One year after being blown out 38-3 in the opener by the Saints, they were outplayed from start to finish by the Vikings in Minnesota. Receiver Justin Jefferson caught nine passes for 184 yards, former Green Bay edge rusher Za’Darius Smith picked up a revenge sack of Aaron Rodgers and the Vikings cruised to a 16-point victory.
Is this a reason to be worried about the Packers? In the big picture, I don’t think so. If there’s anything we know about them, it’s that they simply don’t turn the ball over often. In Week 1 a year ago, they had three giveaways … and then three more over the ensuing seven games. Sunday’s two-turnover showing against the Vikings, courtesy of a Rodgers interception and strip sack, is unlikely to recur. After ranking in the top two for fewest turnovers each of the past four seasons, I’ll believe they are subject to the normal laws of turnover regression when I see it.
As incredible as Rodgers has been during his back-to-back MVP campaigns, though, it’s naive to pretend he was playing with an NFL-caliber supporting cast Sunday. The Packers have an excellent one-two punch at running back in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and they were down several starters via injury, including wideout Allen Lazard and star linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins.
With that noted, contrast Rodgers’ regular starters in 2020 to the guys who lined up in those roles in Week 1:
Green Bay’s Offenses In 2020 And 2022
POS 2020 2022
WR Davante Adams Sammy Watkins
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling Christian Watson
WR Allen Lazard Randall Cobb
TE Robert Tonyan Robert Tonyan
LT David Bakhtiari Yosh Nijman
LG Elgton Jenkins Jon Runyan/Zach Tom
C Corey Linsley Josh Myers
RG Lucas Patrick Jake Hanson
RT Billy Turner Royce Newman
The 2020 Packers had a superstar at wide receiver in Davante Adams. Marquez Valdes-Scantling earned a meaningful deal in free agency in March, and Lazard has done enough to push into the top wideout role on the current roster when healthy. They had three All-Pro-caliber linemen and two solid starters in Lucas Patrick and Billy Turner. Just two of their five starting linemen Sunday have a full year of starting experience under their belt, and one of those two was Jon Runyan, who left with a possible concussion. Even Robert Tonyan wasn’t 100% in his first game back after suffering a torn left ACL last October.
While Rodgers probably would tell you he didn’t play his best football, the reality is the players around him weren’t up to the task. Christian Watson dropped a would-be 75-yard touchdown on the opening drive, and while that led to snide comparisons to Valdes-Scantling, he drew only three other targets the rest of the way. Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb combined for five catches and 32 yards while running a combined 55 routes.
Owing to a lack of reliable weapons, questions about the offensive line and a desire to get the ball into the hands of his running backs, Rodgers was throwing at or near the line of scrimmage more often than usual. The Packers throw plenty of short passes, but he averaged just 5.3 air yards per attempt, down more than 2 full yards from his 2020-21 averages. Rodgers attempted five throws more than 15 yards downfield, and with the Watson drop included, he went 1-of-5 for 23 yards with an interception on those passes. The one completion came when the Packers schemed up a (beautiful) fake screen to Romeo Doubs.
The Vikings, playing their first game under new defensive coordinator (and former Green Bay DC) Ed Donatell, forced the Packers to work underneath and stay efficient without making mistakes. They played two deep safeties on 35 of Rodgers’s 39 pass attempts. ESPN’s automated coverage analysis suggests the Vikings were in zone coverage on 30 of Rodgers’s 39 attempts, with those 30 passes generating just 165 yards. They blitzed only about 14% of the time, but the Vikings were able to get pressure at nearly double that rate with their front four before then relying on the robber defenders to peel off and chase down Rodgers when scrambling.
The Packers get the Bears next week, and while I’ll get to them in a second, Chicago isn’t a fair match for Rodgers & Co. Over the next few weeks, the Packers also get the Giants, Jets and Commanders alongside their marquee matchup with the Buccaneers, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they hit their Week 8 game with the Bills at 5-2. The sky isn’t falling.
In terms of this offense, though, the difference between Week 1 of 2021 and 2022 is the cavalry might not be there. That team had Adams, with Lazard as the third wideout. Now, Lazard needs to come back and be this team’s top wideout. The 2021 Packers had only Bakhtiari for a game, but after his multiple knee surgeries, it’s unclear whether Green Bay can ever count on getting back the guy who was perennially one of the league’s best left tackles for a long stretch of time.
Rodgers will make it work. Watson will catch a long touchdown. Dillon and Jones will be able to hammer home leads. The Packers won’t go 1-for-3 in the red zone and 3-for-11 on third and fourth down each week. As we think about a team with Super Bowl aspirations, though, Sunday was a clear warning that its margin for error on offense is now razor thin. |
| NFC EAST |
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DALLAS
The Cowboys will carry QB DAK PRESCOTT on their roster, now in belief his absence will be shorter than originally feared. This according to Owner and Chief Medical Spokesperson Jerry Jones as relayed by Todd Archer of ESPN.com:
Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones said Tuesday that quarterback Dak Prescott will not go on injured reserve following surgery on his right thumb Monday.
“We want him to be a consideration for playing for us within the next four games,” Jones said on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas.
The initial timeline for Prescott to return was six to eight weeks, according to sources. However, Jones said the report following the surgery was more favorable. Theoretically, Prescott could be back for the Oct. 9 game at the Rams in Week 5 if things work out well in his recovery. The original thought was he could miss seven games and return potentially Nov. 13 at the Packers, following the Cowboys’ bye.
“If we thought he wasn’t going to be ready to go until after four games, we would put him on IR. We’re not doing that,” Jones told The Fan. “We think he can come in and play, so we don’t want to not have him out there practicing. We want him getting prepared and we’ll see how he handles this thing, how it heals, mainly his strength, how he can grip the ball, [will determine] what his status is. That’s not [being] an optimist. The proof is that we got a good surgery, got good technique and feel better about it than we did Sunday night.”
Prescott had a plate inserted into the thumb Monday to stabilize the joint. The first part of Prescott’s recovery is making sure the wound heals, followed by working on grip strength. With the plate, the bone should be stronger than before.
Prescott suffered the injury in the fourth quarter of the Cowboys’ 19-3 loss to the Buccaneers after his hand twice hit the hand of linebacker Shaq Barrett. After a screen pass to Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott went to the sideline because he could no longer grip the ball.
Prescott would have to miss a minimum of four games if he were to be placed on injured reserve. By not going on IR, Prescott would be eligible to practice. He can rehab, condition and go through meetings to help out.
“Dak has a real chance to be back out there throwing the ball pretty quick,” Jones said.
The Cowboys will add a quarterback to the practice squad at the very least, but they will go with Cooper Rush and Will Grier, who are currently on the practice squad, as the starter and backup, respectively, in Prescott’s absence. Rush won his first start last season replacing an injured Prescott against the Vikings.
“Those guys know the offense well,” Jones said on The Fan. “They had a lot of reps in it and consequently gives us our best shot. It’s unlikely since we don’t have any potential trade pending — not pending, or in the mill — it’s unlikely you’ll have a veteran quarterback that could get back in here and be ready to play as well as those guys can play even if you thought you might have a talent advantage.” |
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PHILADELPHIA
Eagles DE DEREK BARNETT is done for the season. Tim McManus of ESPN.com:
An MRI revealed that Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Derek Barnett suffered a season-ending torn ACL during Sunday’s 38-35 victory over the Detroit Lions, coach Nick Sirianni announced Monday.
“Obviously that’s a big blow for us,” Sirianni said. “I love the way that Derek Barnett comes to work each day and plays with grittiness and toughness … I’m a huge Derek Barnett fan and he’ll be missed.”
Barnett was hurt midway through the third quarter, collapsing to the ground during a pass rush up the right side. After being examined by trainers, he walked off under his own power. He was listed as questionable to return but never did.
The injury is a blow to the Eagles’ defensive line depth. Second-year player Tarron Jackson, who was inactive Sunday, is expected to assume a larger role behind veterans Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat.
The Eagles re-signed Barnett to a one-year deal this offseason. A first-round draft pick by Philadelphia in 2017, he has 21.5 career sacks over five-plus seasons. |
| NFC SOUTH |
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TAMPA BAY
The fact that Giselle Bundchun is worried about QB TOM BRADY’s health and his focus on work, doesn’t mean she does not still love him or that the marriage is on the rocks. She has opened up a bit in an interview with Elle. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has said plenty of things about his overall circumstances in recent weeks, even if he ultimately hasn’t actually said very much at all. His wife, Gisele Bundchen, has added some thoughts on the current state of her husband’s career in a new interview with Elle.
She repeated past public comments regarding her obvious interest in Brady’s health and well being.
“Obviously, I have my concerns — this is a very violent sport, and I have my children and I would like him to be more present,” she said. “I have definitely had those conversations with him over and over again. But ultimately, I feel that everybody has to make a decision that works for [them]. He needs to follow his joy, too.”
The interview happened “weeks” before Brady’s mysterious 11-day hiatus from training camp. She declined to comment on reports of marital strife when Elle followed up with her this month.
– – –
In the Elle interview, she agreed with the notion that her depiction as being “desperate” for Brady to retire is “sexist.” But there’s nothing “sexist” about acknowledging the apparent reality that she wants him to “be more present,” and to stop putting himself in harm’s way with guys who are literally half his age and younger. As she supposedly told him after Super Bowl LV, what more does he have to prove?
Brady has stretched the rubber band farther than any elite athlete ever has. He’s taken the needle on the gas tank well past E, and he has kept going. She has every right to want him to act his age and move on to business endeavors that won’t continue to accumulate wear and tear on his body and brain. Although it’s his life and his decision, it impacts her and the rest of the family. And it’s fair to ask him to strike a better balance between risk and reward — between selflessness and selfishness — when deciding to keep playing at a time when he doesn’t need the money, the trophies, or the accolades.
Everything about the current state of Brady’s career is unprecedented. There’s no manual to read, no one to seek out for advice. It’s unprecedented for everyone, on the inside and the outside.
The greatness that carried Brady this far is what pushes him to keep going. His biggest challenge could be finding a way to keep things going while honoring his bigger priorities and responsibilities. |
| NFC WEST |
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ARIZONA
The Chiefs are blaming the Cardinals, in particular their turf, for a pair of injuries. Adam Teicher of ESPN.com:
Coach Andy Reid blamed the turf in Arizona for injuries to two key Kansas City Chiefs players in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals.
The Chiefs lost cornerback Trent McDuffie with a hamstring injury. An ankle injury to kicker Harrison Butker forced the Chiefs to use a safety, Justin Reid, to kick two extra points and to kickoff.
“They resodded it, which is a good thing because they practice in there,” Reid said of the field at Arizona’s State Farm Stadium. “But it was a little bit loose. That’s what happens sometimes when you resod, is it’s loose.
“It was part of the Butker injury and McDuffie injury … The turf picked up and I would tell you that that did have something to do with it. If it didn’t, I would tell you that, too. So it’s not an excuse by any means, but I mean, you all can see it. Watch the tape.”
The Chiefs placed McDuffie on the injured reserve list, meaning he will miss Thursday night’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium and at least three more games after that.
Butker appears unlikely to play against the Chargers. The Chiefs said he would not work in the team’s only full practice of the week on Tuesday.
The Chiefs signed kicker Matt Ammendola to their practice squad this week, and he could be promoted to the active roster in time for Thursday’s game. |
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SAN FRANCISCO
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com takes stock of the 49ers after their Week 1 loss to Chicago:
Week 1 result: Lost 19-10 to Chicago Bears
How much are you willing to pin on terrible weather? If you’re optimistic about new 49ers starting quarterback Trey Lance, the answer is probably quite a bit. Facing a Bears defense that doesn’t project to be dominant, Lance and the 49ers simply couldn’t do much on the offensive side of the ball. With 11 drives, including three short fields, they scored 10 points. They generated minus-0.18 EPA per play, which ranks 27th out of the 30 teams that have played so far in Week 1. Jimmy Garoppolo was more productive in terms of EPA per play in 42 of his 45 starts with the team.
Like the Patriots, the 49ers had a disproportionate amount of their drives end up in no man’s land. Seven of their 11 drives ended somewhere between their own 40-yard line and the Bears’ 40, with the Niners failing to convert on fourth down on each of their final three drives. One of the drives that advanced past the 40 ended when Deebo Samuel fumbled, an issue for the star wideout during his All-Pro season a year ago.
Lance also threw an interception on a slant that simply wasn’t there, leading safety Eddie Jackson to the throwing lane with his eyes. As a passer, Lance looked a lot like a quarterback who has one year as a starter since his last high school game in 2017. He often seemed overly deliberate in the pocket, and he looked better as pass concepts were simpler. His best play of the day came on a two-man route in the first quarter, when the 49ers went with max protection and gave him a clear throwing lane to find Brandon Aiyuk for 31 yards.
At other moments, Lance seemed to be battling every element of being a pro passer from snap to snap. He is tall and incredibly mobile, but he seemed uncomfortable moving within the pocket and took a coverage sack inside the 5-yard line. His mechanics were inconsistent, leading to missed throws, including what should have been a touchdown pass to Tyler Kroft on coach Kyle Shanahan’s famous “leak” pass concept. Lance posted a minus-21.1% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) in his 2022 debut, the worst mark for any quarterback in Week 1. Chicago’s Justin Fields was just behind him at minus-16.8%, suggesting the weather certainly influenced the completion percentages, and the 49ers helped by dropping three of Lance’s 28 passes.
As a runner, Lance was more impactful, but many of his carries came late in the game on scrambles, when the 49ers were trailing by nine points and the weather was further deteriorating. They went to designed quarterback draws in long-yardage situations twice, including one in which Lance ran for a first down on third-and-13. Lance took several big hits from Bears linebackers, which again might owe to his inexperience. There was a nifty triple-option look, but while San Francisco ran a wide variety of run concepts, it was more conventional in most cases than we might have expected or hoped given Lance’s skill set.
Again, though: How much of this are you willing to put on the rain? It’s not difficult to imagine a scenario in which Shanahan took some of the more ballhandling-intensive run concepts out of the playbook, owing to the conditions. Lance also threw downfield more frequently than any quarterback in the league in a small sample a year ago, but he attempted only four passes of 20 or more yards downfield on Sunday. One was a beautiful 44-yard completion to wideout Jauan Jennings on a drive that eventually produced a short field goal from Robbie Gould.
Lance is simply not going to be polished at this point of his career, having thrown right around 400 passes since graduating from high school. He’s going to have to survive early in his career by being a better runner, having opportunities schemed up for him in the passing game and hitting big plays frequently enough to make up for missing intermediate stuff.
Lance is capable of doing that in better weather, but Sunday suggested the second-year passer isn’t about to go supernova on the league in the way Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes announced in their respective Week 1 sophomore starts. Then again, they weren’t playing in a series of puddles in Chicago, either.
Of course, there’s the Garoppolo question hanging over Lance’s role. The 49ers need to give Lance time to develop. He wasn’t great, but they lost this game because of mistakes made by other players on the roster. Samuel fumbled. Defenders Dre Greenlaw and Charvarius Ward extended Chicago’s first touchdown drive with third-down penalties. The pass rush couldn’t bring down Fields on what ended up as a 51-yard touchdown pass to a wide-open Dante Pettis, a former Niners second-round pick. Strange things happen in terrible conditions, and I want to see Lance in better weather in the weeks to come.
If the 49ers were holding on to Garoppolo to serve as a possible trade candidate, an opening suddenly appeared once Dak Prescott went down with a right thumb injury Sunday night. ESPN’s Todd Archer reports Prescott will miss six to eight weeks and undergo surgery, and with Cooper Rush as Dallas’ backup, it seems logical the Cowboys would at least call the Niners about Garoppolo. The 49ers and Cowboys are longtime rivals, but they don’t play in the same division and aren’t on the schedule against each other. I’m not sure the Niners are desperate to trade Garoppolo to Dallas — or that the quarterback would be willing to waive his no-trade clause for a month of starting work — but it’s at least a possibility that would be worth considering.
If Lance had been incredible Sunday, that call would be easy to take. After seeing him struggle through a frustrating performance, though, can the 49ers realistically trade Garoppolo to the Cowboys? It’s not about next week or the week after, but if Lance looks like this guy in midseason, they might be pushed into a change by their locker room. Furthermore, if Lance continues to take so many big hits as a runner, they might be forced to play Garoppolo because their franchise quarterback is injured. Lance will get another week of reps under presumably friendlier conditions at home against the Seahawks next week.
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| AFC WEST |
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DENVER
All day Tuesday, the criticisms of Nathaniel Hackett’s decision-making process have rolled in. Including – from Nathaniel Hackett. Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com:
On second thought, Denver Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett said Tuesday he “definitely” should have let quarterback Russell Wilson run a fourth-and-5 play in the closing seconds of Monday night’s loss in Seattle instead of sending kicker Brandon McManus out for a 64-yard field goal attempt.
“Looking back at it, definitely should have gone for it,” Hackett said. “One of those things, you look back at it and say ‘of course we should go for it, we missed the field goal.’ But in that situation we had a plan, we knew 46 was the mark.”
McManus’ field goal attempt sailed wide left, and Hackett’s decision overwhelmed almost everything else about his regular-season debut as a head coach.
Just two kickers in the NFL, since 1960, have even made field goal attempts of at least 64 yards, and the longest field goal in the history of Lumen Field is 56 yards.
McManus, who has one of the strongest legs of any kicker in the league, is still 1-of-5, including Monday night’s miss, on attempts of at least 60 yards in his career. Also, last season, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, teams converted 48 percent of their fourth-and-5 plays.
Hackett said he understood how few kickers have made an attempt of at least 64 yards — only Matt Prater at 64 yards in 2013 and Justin Tucker with the record 66-yarder in 2021 — but that after talking to the special teams coaches as well as McManus in pregame, they had decided if the team got to the Seahawks 46-yard line in the end-of-half or end-of-game situation, McManus would attempt the kick.
Wilson had been apprised of the decision that a field goal attempt would happen on fourth down if the Broncos got to the Seahawks 46 on third down before the Broncos faced the decision on their final drive. On a third-and-14, Wilson completed a 9-yard pass to running back Javonte Williams that moved the ball to the Seattle 46.
Hackett said Tuesday if Williams had gained even 1 fewer yard “we would have gone for it.”
“We said 46 yards, the 46-yard line was where we wanted to be,” Hackett said. ” … Didn’t work, it sucks, but hey, that’s part of it.
“That’s part of being in this seat, being in this profession. This stuff is going to happen at all times, it’s been happening my whole career, even when my dad was coaching, you’re prepared for that, you understand that. You’ve got to keep grinding.”
Hackett also said “we shouldn’t have been in that situation,” given the Broncos lost two fumbles in the game on plays that started from the Seahawks 1 on back-to-back possessions in the third quarter and had another drive derailed with a false start penalty at the Seahawks 3. Wilson finished the game with 340 yards passing as the Broncos outgained the Seahawks overall 433-253.
The Broncos defense held the Seahawks offense scoreless on just 34 total yards in the second half as well.
“In the end, that lies on me, that was our plan, that was the yard line we had to get to, we all knew it, that’s what we said in the huddle before we did it,” Hackett said. “Should have never gotten to that. … Obviously the last decision is the one where you’re going to say should have done this, should have done that, but I think what frustrates me more is the red zone. We had some many opportunities, we were inches away.”
This from Warren Sharp:
@Warren Sharp
Brandon McManus career history on 62+ yard FGs
62 yards – 2016 – MISS
62 yards – 2018 – MISS
63 yards – 2021 – MISS
64 yards – 2019 – MISS
64 yards – 2022 – MISS*
70 yards – 2021 – MISS
*tonight
THIS is what Nathaniel Hackett opted for instead of the $242M Russ on 4th & 5???
Hackett seemed to confuse the line at which you try a last-second field goal versus a 2% Hail Mary when he had a fifty-fifty 4th down conversion.
And here is the 4th-and-5 calculation:
ESPNStatsInfo
After Brandon McManus’ late miss last night, NFL kickers since 1960 attempting a field goal of 64+ yards have made it 4.8% of the time (2 of 42).
For reference, last season, teams to go for it on exactly 4th-and-5 converted it 49% of the time (22 of 45).
Now, “since 1960” is kind of silly, because the first attempt of 64+ yards was in 1991.
So 49% with all the QBs against all the defenses. Seattle playing probably slightly better than the average defense on Monday, Wilson supposedly is a superior QB. So our guess of 50% on Tuesday might have been a little light. We would now think Wilson was about 60% to convert. |
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KANSAS CITY
Luckily for the Chiefs, QB PATRICK MAHOMES did not hurt his passing wrist. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes injured his left wrist on the first of his five touchdown passes in the Week One victory over the Cardinals.
But Mahomes, obviously, was able to play through it. And after he was listed as a full participant on Kansas City’s Monday injury report estimate, there don’t seem to be any real concerns as the Chiefs get ready to face the Chargers on Thursday.
Via Matt Derrick of ChiefsDigest.com, head coach Andy Reid called Mahomes “full go” in his Tuesday press conference.
Mahomes then noted that he received treatment on the non-throwing wrist, but he’s otherwise fine.
“It got a little sore yesterday but today it felt a lot better,” Mahomes said. “I’m sure I’ll be good to go this week.”
Mahomes finished Sunday 30-of-39 for 360 yards with five TDs — good for a 144.2 passer rating.
This from Michael David Smith:
@MichaelDavSmith
Today was Patrick Mahomes’ sixth game with 5+ TD passes. Only Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have more such games. |
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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
WR KEENAN ALLEN is not likely to play Thursday against the Chiefs in the first game on Amazon. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com:
Los Angeles Chargers coach Brandon Staley said it’s “not looking great” for injured wide receiver Keenan Allen to play in the Thursday night game in Kansas City.
Allen left the Chargers’ Week 1 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in the first half with a hamstring injury. He did not practice Tuesday.
An MRI did not reveal any major damage, a source told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.
While Staley declined to say definitively that Allen won’t play Thursday, the short week doesn’t work in the wide receiver’s favor and the team doesn’t want him to aggravate the injury.
If Allen is unable to play, expect receivers Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter and Jalen Guyton to see increased opportunity. |
| AFC NORTH |
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CINCINNATI
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com takes stock of the Bengals after their Week 1 loss to the Steelers:
Week 1 result: Lost 23-20 to Pittsburgh Steelers
During the 2021 playoffs, we talked about several reasons the Bengals had gone from being 7-6 and in the middle of a crowded playoff picture to somehow coming out of the AFC as conference champs. The AFC North’s quarterbacks were all injured to one extent or another. Their pass rate spiked. Joe Burrow was more confident about the left knee he injured in 2020. The defense coalesced. Nobody believed they had a chance against the Titans and Chiefs. All of those factors meant something.
The biggest difference between the Bengals who lost to the Bears and Jets and the ones who beat the Chiefs and Titans, though, was plain as day. Through the first 13 games of their season, they turned the ball over 21 times. When they turned the ball over two or more times during that 13-game stretch to start the season, they went 0-5.
Over their final seven games of the season — leaving aside a meaningless Week 18 game their starters took off — Burrow & Co. went 6-1. They turned the ball over just two times, with one giveaway in their win over the Titans and their subsequent victory over the Chiefs.
We knew the Bengals weren’t going to turn the ball over once per month for any extended period of time, but the regression past the mean didn’t have to come so suddenly and be so dramatic. Burrow and Cincinnati turned the ball over on four of their first five drives in Week 1, with the quarterback losing a fumble on a strip sack and tossing three interceptions. He added a fourth pick later in the game. Burrow was strip-sacked yet again in overtime, but teammate Samaje Perine fell on the fumble.
The Bengals probably win this game without those giveaways. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick took the first interception to the house for a pick-six, giving a limp Steelers offense seven crucial points. The Bengals might have been in position to attempt a long field goal if Burrow had merely avoided the strip sack in overtime, with Cincinnati instead being forced to punt. Even with the giveaways, the team was in position to win on an extra point at the end of regulation or a 29-yard field goal in overtime, neither of which produced points.
Should the Bengals be concerned about the turnovers? Not really. We know from history a five-giveaway game is historically unlikely. Watching those plays back, the Steelers deserve credit for making some spectacular catches. T.J. Watt somehow managed to catch a full-speed Burrow pass 0.2 seconds after it got into the air, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Cameron Sutton, who had a great game, made an excellent catch undercutting a Burrow pass up the seam. Ahkello Witherspoon tipped a pass to himself for his pick. Those throws are more likely to hit the ground harmlessly in weeks to come than they are to turn into interceptions again.
What would concern me as a Bengals fan, though, is that while the offensive line might be better after their free agency spending spree, the job of protecting Burrow might not be finished. He was sacked seven times by the Steelers on 60 dropbacks. Any line with Watt and Cameron Heyward is going to be fearsome, but the Bengals won on just 56.3% of their pass block attempts, per ESPN Stats & Information research; that’s better than their 48.8% mark from a year ago, but it’s still below league average.
While the Bengals addressed center and the right side of their line in free agency, the left side had a rough day. Left tackle Jonah Williams, a first-round draft pick in 2019, allowed two sacks to Alex Highsmith, including a strip sack. Debuting left guard Cordell Volson, who beat out Jackson Carman for the starting job, was bull-rushed by Heyward for one sack and asked to come across the line and kick out Watt on a play-action concept. You can guess what happened next.
The other reality is Burrow himself is responsible for taking some of these hits. This was true in the playoff game against the Titans, in which he was sacked nine times on 46 dropbacks, and again true against the Steelers. He’s patient in the pocket when it comes to getting rid of the football, but that coolness can lead to sacks. The overtime forced fumble is on Burrow, who even saw Steelers defensive back Arthur Maulet blitzing off the edge and chose to keep the ball. He can sometime shrug off those hits and keep the play going. Instead, he handed the Steelers back the football for what ended up as a game-winning drive.
The special teams probably won’t be this bad over the remainder of the season. The Bengals lost long-snapper Clark Harris to an injury in the fourth quarter, and while it might not seem difficult to find a player who can snap the ball in special teams situations elsewhere on your active roster, it’s a specialized skill. Teams carry only one long-snapper on their active roster, and we saw the impact when a high snap led to Evan McPherson missing a 29-yard chip shot in overtime. The duo of Drew Sample and Hakeem Adeniji was unable to slow down Fitzpatrick, who saved the game with a crucial blocked extra point at the end of regulation.
The Bengals likely will be fine. Burrow won’t turn the ball over this often. They’ll find a long-snapper. They won’t have key extra points blocked every week. Wideout Ja’Marr Chase should have had his first touchdown in the fourth quarter on a play in which he ran alongside the goal line and seemed to break the plane on a drive in which the Bengals eventually did not score. Burrow missed an open Mike Thomas up the sideline for what should have been a touchdown later in the quarter. That stuff happens.
In the big picture, though, those feelings of invincibility that seemed to come from Cincinnati’s spectacular run to the postseason might have taken a hit. What felt like a formula during December and January isn’t going to be sustainable. The Bengals can win games other ways, and they nearly won this game despite those turnovers, but they’re not immune to bad luck and sloppy play. More tangibly, with every other team in the AFC North winning on Sunday, the Bengals are now in last place. |
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CLEVELAND
The return to prominence of “Brownie the Elf” begins Sunday vs. the Jets. Tim Bielik of the Cleveland Plain Dealer:
The fans have spoken, and Brownie the Elf will grace the 50-yard line of FirstEnergy Stadium for all Browns home games this season, starting Sunday vs. the Jets.
The Browns unveiled their new field design on Tuesday, which features Brownie the Elf at midfield running the football and using a stiff arm.
It was one of four field designs fans could vote on for this season. Two of the designs featured Brownie the Elf at the 50-yard line. The other two featured the Browns helmet at midfield.
This will be the first time since 2016 that the Browns have had a midfield logo.
Brownie the Elf was an original logo of the Browns when they came into existence starting in 1946. But Art Modell began to phase out the logo after buying the team in the early 1960s.
It didn’t get enough notice, at least not here, that the Browns had lost 18 straight openers prior to Sunday’s hairbreadth win over Carolina.
The Browns have not been 2-0 since 1993 – but they will catch plenty of flack (Flacco) if they aren’t this year. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
If the Browns beat the Jets on Sunday, they’ll do something Cleveland hasn’t done since Bill Belichick was the head coach: Start the season 2-0.
The Browns are 1-0 for the first time since 2004, and if they beat the Jets they’ll be 2-0 for the first time since 1993, the season when Belichick made the shocking decision to release quarterback Bernie Kosar in favor of Vinny Testaverde.
Cleveland is a 6-point favorite on Sunday against a Jets team that did not look good in Week One, so there’s every reason to believe the Browns will reach 2-0.
Of course, a 2-0 start is no guarantee of a good season. Those 1993 Browns started 3-0 and were 5-2 when Belichick cut Kosar, but they went into a steep decline for the rest of the season and finished 7-9. |
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PITTSBURGH
It looks like EDGE T.J. WATT will be back before the middle of the season. ESPN.com:
Doctors determined Tuesday afternoon that the Pittsburgh Steelers’ T.J. Watt does not surgery on his torn pectoral and the star pass-rusher is expected to miss about six weeks, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Watt, who suffered the injury on Sunday in a 23-20 overtime victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, had sought out second and third opinions on the injury.
Watt on Tuesday tweeted a gif of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Terminator character saying “I’ll be back.”
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said earlier Tuesday that the organization was “encouraged” about the injury outlook for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.
“We’re probably in a lot better place than we were after the game,” Tomlin said Tuesday. “… I can definitively say that T.J. won’t play this week [against the Patriots], but I won’t make any commitments beyond that.
“We’re encouraged, and we’ll just continue to look at the situation and gain opinions and do what’s appropriate.”
Watt appeared to suffer a torn left pectoral muscle in the final seconds of regulation when he tried to sack Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, and as he walked off the field, he told medical personnel that he tore his pec. Watt recorded a sack and an interception in Sunday’s game.
Asked if Watt would go on injured reserve, Tomlin was noncommittal on Tuesday. Injured reserve would rule Watt out for a minimum of four games. The Steelers can designate up to eight players to return from IR throughout the season, and each player can return twice.
In Watt’s absence, the team will first turn to outside linebackers Malik Reed, acquired in a trade with the Broncos last month, and Jamir Jones, whom the organization grabbed off waivers. The Steelers signed veteran linebacker Ryan Anderson to their practice squad later Tuesday, but Tomlin didn’t commit to playing new faces on Sunday.
Last season, Watt had 22.5 sacks to tie the NFL’s single-season sack record. He has 73 sacks in his career. |
| AFC SOUTH |
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HOUSTON
Rookie RB DAMEON PIERCE was a Fantasy Draft rookie darling – but a Week 1 bust. The Texans say he will be more involved going forward. Aaron Wilson of ProFootballNetwork.com:
Dameon Pierce wasn’t slated to spend so much time watching from the Texans’ bench during his NFL regular season debut.
The Texans’ rookie starting running back wound up playing just 29% of the 70 offensive snaps, 20 plays overall, during a 20-20 tie to open the season against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. He rushed for just 33 yards on 11 carries with one catch for six yards and didn’t play in overtime as veteran backup Rex Burkhead got stuffed for a loss of two yards on a pivotal 3rd-and-1 leading up to a punt decision that led to the tie. While Burkhead played 71 percent of the snaps, 50 plays overall, he rushed for 40 yards on 14 carries with five catches for 30 yards.
Going forward the Texans want to increase Pierce’s workload following an impressive preseason from the fourth-round draft pick from Florida.
“Some of the other things we did in the game, looking on the offensive side of the football, I understand how many plays Dameon Pierce played,” Texans coach Lovie Smith said Monday. “The plan of course was for him to get more. You get into the game and situations make you go a little bit different direction. You learn from those mistakes like that, mistakes of those situations that you look at the day after.”
It was tough sledding for the Texans’ running game Sunday against the Colts’ stout defense.
It wasn’t the type of performance the Texans hoped for as they had high hopes following an encouraging preseason after having the statistically lowest ranked ground attack a year ago.
The Texans managed to gain just 77 rushing yards on 28 carries for a 2.8 average per run. Both Pierce and Burkhead’s longest run was eight yards against the NFL’s 10th-ranked run defense from last season.
Pierce got the start but had just 16 yards on five carries in the first half. In the fourth quarter, Pierce had three runs for 10 yards. In overtime, Pierce had zero touches.
What will it take for Pierce to get more touches? Pass blocking and receiving improvements?
“It would be all of those,” Smith said. “Sometimes though when you look back, you can’t defend the amount of reps our starting tailback got in some of those situations. I wish he had gotten more and we’re going to work to get him more of those opportunities but a young back, it’s some of those things. I wouldn’t say that just being a primary ball carrier is holding him back. Those are some things that we’re going to work on to make sure that that situation doesn’t happen again.” |
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INDIANAPOLIS
The Colts part ways with PK RODRIGO BLANKENSHIP.
The Colts waived kicker Rodrigo Blankenship on Tuesday, two days after his ongoing struggles culminated in a missed would-be 42-yard game-winning field goal in the season opener.
The Colts did not immediately fill the kicker spot on their active roster, instead signing kickers Chase McLaughlin and Lucas Havrisik to their practice squad.
The Colts likely will promote one of the new kickers to the active roster before their Week 2 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
The Colts filled Blankenship’s spot on the 53-man roster by signing cornerback Tony Brown from their practice squad.
A former college standout at Georgia, Blankenship had a rough day in Week 1. He shanked two consecutive kickoffs out of bounds late in the game, giving the Houston Texans possession at the 40-yard line in each instance. His issues were then compounded by the 42-yard miss in overtime, when he sent the kick shockingly wide to the right. The Colts had to settle for a 20-20 tie.
Blankenship converted 45 of 54 (83.3%) of his field goal attempts in his two-plus seasons, along with 52 of 55 extra point attempts (94.5%). Blankenship converted just one of four attempts from 50 yards or longer in his stint with Indianapolis.
The Colts displayed a lack of faith in him last season after he sustained a hip injury against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5, an issue that was not considered season-ending. But instead of returning him to the lineup after his recovery, the Colts allowed his fill-in, Michael Badgley, to finish the season. Blankenship never made another attempt last season.
Colts coach Frank Reich was asked Monday whether Blankenship had a confidence issue.
“Your confidence is going to waver,” he said. “It’s how you respond to that. … To me, there’s no exceptions to that. The greatest players in the world, their confidence wavers. So, obviously as we evaluate that and how we feel about it, you consider all those things and then it’s a question of, hey, a guy had a bad day. Can he bounce back? Do we have the patience for a guy to bounce back?
“Those are the things you think through and talk through.”
The Colts took a decidedly different approach to their kicking issues this season than they did during Adam Vinatieri’s epic struggles in 2019. Vinatieri, who was dealing with a knee injury, saw his performance fall apart with a career-low 68% conversion rate on field goals. But the Colts stuck with him until Week 13 despite his issues originating in Week 2. |
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TENNESSEE
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com takes stock of the Titans after their Week 1 loss to the Giants:
Tennessee Titans
Week 1 result: Lost 21-20 to New York Giants
Like the Bengals, the Titans are another team that might feel like they established a steady formula for winning games. With running back Derrick Henry in the fold, they have been a dominant team in short yardage and in the red zone, and they’ve usually been good enough in key moments to pull out close victories. Over the past two seasons, they have gone 13-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer.
Well, the Titans are now 0-1 in those games in 2022. They were in position to pull out another close victory late against the Giants, but New York running back Saquon Barkley muscled through a tackle attempt to convert a 2-point try, and kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard kick on the final snap of the game. This was the sort of game the Titans have won over the past two seasons.
To put it eloquently, the Titans didn’t look very Titans-y on Sunday. Henry’s 21 carries produced 82 yards, which was more like the local version of Henry we saw in 2021 than the express train of 2019 and 2020. The offense struggled with drops and bizarre playcalling on third down, leading it to convert just three of its 11 opportunities, most of which were in short yardage.
Tennessee faced third-and-4 yards or fewer seven times Sunday. Between 2019 and 2021, they converted those situations 66.5% of the time, which was the second-best mark in the league. They were 1-for-7 against New York, a conversion rate of 14.3%. It’s probably bad luck that Henry fumbled a snap out of the Wildcat on third-and-1. It’s probably bad decision-making to hand the ball to Chigoziem Okonkwo on a third-and-1 fly sweep when Henry is in the backfield. Teams can sometimes overcome a stuff on third down by going again on fourth down, but the Titans either kicked a field goal or punted on each of those subsequent fourth downs.
The defense let the game slip away with a few big plays. It was able to force quarterback Daniel Jones’ weekly strip sack and took away a red zone possession when safety Amani Hooker intercepted a woefully thrown pass. It also allowed the Giants to generate two 60-plus yard plays, which led to two of New York’s three touchdowns.
Third-year cornerback Kristian Fulton, who was excellent a year ago, figured into two big plays. On Barkley’s 68-yard run, with two Titans ending up in the same gap at the line of scrimmage, Fulton was the force defender and tried to slip around a block from a pulling guard. The move gave Barkley an easy cutback angle and didn’t even occupy the blocker, Joshua Ezeudu. Fulton missed his tackle, and Barkley exploded past Hooker in the hole. A last-ditch tackle by safety Kevin Byard saved a score, only for Barkley to finish the drive with a touchdown.
Later in the game, Fulton got burned by a player coming off a torn Achilles. Sterling Shepard never has been known as a downfield threat during his time as a pro, which might be why Fulton got caught looking into the backfield. With the Titans in quarters coverage, he couldn’t have expected help for any deep route, but Shepard simply ran past him. Shepard then broke his tackle attempt before running forward for a 63-yard touchdown.
Fulton did later punch out a Barkley fumble at the end of a 33-yard run, but the ball went out of bounds. If anything, the Giants could have benefited even further from Titans largesse, but a muffed punt by Kyle Phillips that handed the Giants a short field led to Jones’ interception.
Titans fans will say they were one kick away from winning this game, and that’s true. Kickers are going to make 47-yard field goals more often than they miss them in the modern NFL. The Titans probably won’t be as bad in short yardage or drop 9% of quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s passes again next week, because those are things even bad football teams don’t do week after week, and the Titans are a good team.
The Bills are also a good team, and that’s who the Titans play next week. Tennessee has had plenty of success against Buffalo over the past few seasons, but we just finished a week in which the Bills looked absolutely terrifying against the defending champions, while the Titans looked sloppy in losing to one of the worst franchises in football.
The issue is that most metrics say the 2021 Titans were an average team with great luck. They were 20th in DVOA and 13th in ESPN’s Football Power Index. They thrived by excelling in those spots in which one or two plays have a disproportionate impact on who wins and loses. Sunday was an example of how difficult it can be to sustain that formula from year to year. So was their 2021 playoff loss to the Bengals.
We’re only one year removed from Week 1 of last season, when the Titans were blown out by the Cardinals and still managed to finish as the 1-seed in the AFC. They got better and will need to do so again, because great teams don’t need last-second field goals to beat the Giants. They need to do a heck of a lot more to beat the Bills. |
| AFC EAST |
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NEW ENGLAND
We could have put this in TAMPA BAY. The Belichick sample size is getting bigger:
@MichaelDavSmith
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick together: 219-64 regular season, 30-11 playoffs.
Brady without Belichick: 25-9 regular season, 5-1 playoffs.
Belichick without Brady: 71-80 regular season, 1-2 playoffs. |
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NEW YORK JETS
Coach Robert Saleh says he is remembering who was jumping ship in the media after Week 1. Al Ianazzonne of Newsday:
Robert Saleh feels the fans’ frustration from years, actually decades, of losing. Saleh said it’s exhausting for everyone, but he remains confident that he will lead the Jets’ rebirth and will enjoy proving doubters wrong.
“I know it’s going to happen,” Saleh said Monday afternoon. “We’re all taking receipts on all the people who continually mock and say that we ain’t gonna do anything. I’m taking receipts. I’m going to be more than happy to share them with all of you all when it’s all said and done.”
Saleh is known for his passion and fire on the sideline, but during this Zoom call he delivered some of the strongest remarks he’s made since becoming Jets coach last year.
The Jets are only 4-14 under Saleh’s watch. This season didn’t start the way he hoped with the Jets playing a mistake-filled uninspired game on offense in a 24-9 loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
The fans inside MetLife Stadium booed and chanted for Mike White to replace 37-year-old Joe Flacco, who is starting for the injured Zach Wilson. Saleh wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a quarterback change this week when the Jets are in Cleveland, but as of now he’s leaning toward sticking with Flacco.
“Everything is always under discussion and under review,” Saleh said. “It’s more than likely going to be Joe, but the door is open on every position every week.” |
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