The Daily Briefing Wednesday, September 28, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

CHICAGO

Kevin Fishbein of The Athletic breaks down the struggles of QB JUSTIN FIELDS:

On the first play of the Bears’ 23-20 win over the Texans on Sunday, Justin Fields and Sam Mustipher botched the quarterback-center exchange.

Six plays later, after a play fake to David Montgomery, Fields tripped over the running back, ruining the timing of a play, and his pass fell incomplete.

The stats speak for themselves about an inept pass offense, but the operation also wasn’t clean. There were two false starts. Fields was sacked after he tripped over left tackle Braxton Jones as he tried to make his way outside the pocket. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney had two drops. One miscommunication in the backfield led to a stop behind the line. Fields missed several open receivers and threw two picks.

“You’re always searching for consistent, sustained execution. It’s a fancy way of saying execute one play at a time,” coach Matt Eberflus said Monday. “That’s what we’re searching for. When you get those plays, what it does is it puts you behind. Certainly when you have first down. First-down efficiency is always big on both sides of the ball for us, so we’ve got to make sure we’re clean in that regard so we’re ahead of the sticks.”

For the most part, the Bears were ineffective on first down. Fields was 3-for-9 passing. The two false starts came on first-and-10. Eight run plays went for 2 yards or fewer.

But the two longest plays of the game — Khalil Herbert’s 52-yard run and Equanimeous St. Brown’s 41-yard run — both came on first down, skewing the overall stats.

Rewatching the Bears’ offense using the All-22 camera angle, the mistakes are littered throughout, from Fields’ reticence to throw to a couple of losses in pass protection that led to quick sacks. But there were also a few positives that the Bears hope they can build on.

Let’s take a closer look.

Fields’ hesitation to throw

Unlike last season, the pass protection is doing a better job holding up, and receivers are getting open more often in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s scheme. But for whatever reason, Fields is holding on to the ball too long.

– – –

I sent the clip of the play to a couple of personnel evaluators. One responded, “Indecisive triggerman,” while also noting that Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. could’ve been baiting Fields as well. Another saw that the outside receiver is a fine read if Fields was worried about the corner route.

Now, this didn’t turn out to be a negative play leading to a punt. In fact, Fields used what has been his best weapon — his legs — and showed off his rare athleticism with a 29-yard run.

It sets him apart, but he and the offense can’t rely on that every time.

The first interception

What stood out in the rewatch of Fields’ first pick is it wasted a nice play design from Getsy.

Not only was Kmet open, but Fields’ next read, St. Brown, was also an option down the left sideline.

Success on first down

Three of the Bears’ five longest plays — and five of their longest six — were on first down.

– – –

Next up for Fields and the most unproductive passing offense through three games in decades is the Giants. Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush just put up a 98.2 passer rating against them.

There’s nowhere to go but up, right?

“We can see all the flashes here and there, but it’s got to be consistent and that’s how you create a solid passing attack and how you win games in this league,” Kmet said Monday. “You’ve got to be consistent with it.”

The question still to be answered: Are the flashes just flashes? Will the Bears’ passing game in 2022 ultimately be defined by interceptions, sacks and the ball being held too long, or using play-action to connect for long gains?

The sample size is getting larger, and the pressure is only going to ramp up on Fields.

DETROIT

The Lions are banged up heading into Week 4 with S TRACY WALKER going on IR.  Benjamin Raven of MLive.com:

The Detroit Lions made it official, placing starting safety and team captain Tracy Walker on injured reserve with a season-ending Achilles injury.

Walker suffered the injury during the team’s 28-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The safety was only three games into his three-year extension. Walker welcomed his second child in the week leading into the game, missing practice time and traveling to Minneapolis separate from the team. He’s been one of the most productive members of Detroit’s defense through some dark seasons, not to mention one of its most important leaders.

Walker led the team with 108 total tackles last season. He was second on the team with 20 tackles at the time of his injury, adding one sack and two tackles for loss across three games. The 27-year-old is also one of the longest-tenured and experienced players on the young roster. Walker has 62 games and 37 starts under his belt since landing with the Lions via the third round in 2018.

“Yeah, look, losing Tracy hurts. That’s a significant loss and — because multiple reasons, I mean Tracy’s been — since I walked in the door last year, he’s been all in,” Lions head coach Dan Campbell said. “And he’s one of our team captains this year. Nobody’s put in more work than he has since the spring. And he’s one of the smartest players we have on defense, that’s huge and he’s productive. And so, you’re losing a big cog in the piece that helps you over there.

“It hurts. I mean, there again, he’s one of the smartest players we have in the backend. So, that hurts. I mean, that’s like — there again, he’s a productive player and he’s really the quarterback of our secondary. So, that hurts a little bit.”

JuJu Hughes got the first crack at replacing Walker next to DeShon Elliott in lost week’s loss. Hughes was involved in the late miscommunication that led to the go-ahead touchdown pass for the Vikings. The Lions also have Ifeatu Melifonwu and third-round rookie Kerby Joseph. But neither have any experience at the position, not to mention defensive snaps this season. Melifonwu is reportedly close to returning from injury. And the Lions have said they plan to take it slow with the “project” that is Joseph.

NEW YORK GIANTS

QB COOPER RUSH’s wife hasn’t forgotten that he was cut by the Giants, although the DB must confess to thinking he was always a Cowboy.  Jaclyn Hendricks of New York Post:

This one was extra sweet for Cooper Rush’s wife, Lauryn.

Moments after the Cowboys sealed their 23-16 victory over the Giants on “Monday Night Football,” Lauryn gleefully reflected on how far the quarterback has come in his NFL career — and the Giants’ decision to give up on the journeyman two years ago.

“No better play in football than victory formation,” Lauryn began on her Instagram Story.

“Two years ago almost to the freaking day the Giants cut Cooper because they wanted to just ‘rotate in other QBs and see’. Lolz. Fast forward…. Monday freaking night in MetLife and starting for AMERICA’S TEAM.”

Rush began his NFL career with the Cowboys in 2017, when he signed as an undrafted free agent. Three years later, Rush was claimed off waivers by the Giants when his former coach, Jason Garrett, served as the team’s offensive coordinator. Rush’s time in New York ended in September 2020 when he was replaced by Clayton Thorson, a former Cowboys signal-caller, on the practice squad. Rush re-signed with the Cowboys’ practice squad a month later.

Though Rush began the 2022 season as Dak Prescott’s backup, he was quickly thrust into action when the Cowboys’ starting quarterback suffered a thumb injury against the Buccaneers in Week 1. Since taking over for Prescott, Rush has led the Cowboys to two straight wins.

“He’s playing good football right now,” Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said of Rush postgame, per NFL.com. “I’m glad to recognize him for it. He’s giving us the boost to just keep playing on offense.”

Rush completed 21 of 31 attempts for 215 yards and one touchdown on Monday night.

– – –

This from Nate Tice of The Athletic on resurgent RB SAQUON BARKLEY:

There’s a familiar name near the top of this season’s rushing leaders: Saquon Barkley, who now sits second in the NFL in rushing yards and is as healthy as he’s been since his rookie season in 2018. At 317 yards, he trails only Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (341) through Week 3.

Barkley looks explosive. He’s running strong and is consistently picking up yards on the ground, despite being on a Giants offense that features an anemic passing game and (sorry, Daniel Jones) a tight end playing quarterback. With a yards-after-contact average of 2.9, Barkley currently ranks fifth in the NFL. He’s also right in line with his “healthy” years of 2018 and 2019, when he averaged 2.8 yards after contact in each season.

His first down-per-rush rate of 22.6 percent is just below the league average of 23.1 percent, but Barkley’s number is more impressive when considering the fact that in 2022 he hasn’t received a single short-yardage attempt (third or fourth down and 1-2 yards to go).

Barkley finished Week 3 against the Dallas Cowboys on “Monday Night Football” with 81 yards on 14 carries, a performance that was punctuated by a 36-yard touchdown on a first-and-10, outside-zone run concept:

All of Barkley’s exceptional traits are on display on this run: strength, balance, quickness and, of course, burst. With a Cowboys defender getting penetration on right guard Mark Glowinski (No. 64), Barkley cuts and gets back to the line of scrimmage in a hurry. He then runs through a tackle attempt by the defender pursuing from the backside and is able to freeze two more defenders down the field with a quick cut, before outracing everyone else to the end zone.

The notable schematic element of this play is that it came on an under-center run. Barkley is wildly more effective from that alignment than he is from the shotgun. His success rate jumps from 15.8 percent out of the ‘gun (fourth worst amongst the 30 running backs with 30 or more rushing attempts) to 44.1 percent on under-center runs.

Jones’ legs make for another effective weapons in this Giants offense, which means more shotgun plays. But sprinkling in a few more under-center runs might further continue the 2022 redemption tour for Barkley. Tickets on sale now.

NEW ORLEANS

No practice for QB JAMEIS WINSTON on Wednesday.  Myles Simmons ofProFootballTalk.com:

There were some raised eyebrows when Jameis Winston was not on the field for the Saints’ Wednesday practice as they get ready to take on the Vikings in London.

But head coach Dennis Allen said after the session that there’s no cause for alarm.

 “Really, it’s more just trying to rest and trying to make sure he’s healthy,” Allen said in his press conference. “I anticipate that he’ll be back out there tomorrow.”

Winston was listed on the practice report throughout last week as limited with back and ankle injuries. Winston is also coming off a torn ACL suffered midseason last year.

Through three games, Winston has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 858 yards with four touchdowns and a league-leading five interceptions so far in 2022.

Allen also noted that receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are still considered day-to-day as they work through the practice week.

TAMPA BAY

Tampa and its bay have avoided the worst of Hurricane Ian, but the NFL has a back-up plan if the area is still in disarray come Sunday.

With Hurricane Ian due to make landfall in Western Florida shortly, the NFL has not yet moved Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers.

But if the game is relocated, we now know where it will be played.

NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller told reporters on Wednesday that the game would be played at U.S. Bank Stadium, home of the Vikings.

Minnesota is playing the Saints in London on Sunday, which makes the venue available.

But Miller noted, via Albert Breer of SI.com, that “until we know more about the storm, it’s gonna be difficult to make that decision.”

The NFL may take up to Friday to determine where Sunday’s game between Kansas City and Tampa Bay will be located.

The Buccaneers are using the Dolphins’ facility in South Florida this week to practice, as Miami is out of town to play on Thursday night against Cincinnati.

BALTIMORE

QB LAMAR JACKSON is back at the top of his game and Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com looks at why:

Some might say Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who leads the NFL in passer rating and TD passes, looks the same as he did during his 2019 MVP season.

But Ravens coaches and teammates know differently. Jackson is actually playing at a much higher level this season.

He’s showing more patience in the pocket. He’s delivering the ball with more accuracy. He’s commanding the offense with more authority.

Three years ago, Ravens coach John Harbaugh called it a “revolution” when Jackson and Baltimore’s unconventional offense ripped through defenses. Now, the Ravens are once again the NFL’s most electric attack because of Jackson’s “evolution.”

“It’s a front row seat; you’re watching greatness,” Ravens defensive end Calais Campbell said.

When Jackson became the second unanimous NFL MVP selection, he played behind one of the best offensive lines, and he handed the ball off to Pro Bowl running back Mark Ingram. Through three games this year, it hasn’t mattered that Jackson has had his blindside protected by three different left tackles and Baltimore’s running backs have struggled.

Jackson has produced 87% of the total yards for the league’s No. 1 scoring offense, which has put him ahead of his 2019 pace in nearly every major statistical category. Aside from the league-leading 10 TD passes and 119.0 passer rating, Jackson ranks fifth in the league in rushing (243 yards) and first in rushing average (9.35).

Jackson’s odds to win NFL MVP have gone from 22-to-1 in February (eighth-best odds) to 7-to-1 (tied for third-best with Jalen Hurts while Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are first and second).

“He’s kind of determined to play his way,” Harbaugh said. “His way is winning football.”

Some wondered whether Jackson would regret playing his fifth-year option with no guaranteed money beyond this season. Others thought he would get distracted or play a more conservative style with the lack of a contract extension.

Jackson has responded with a focus and ferocity that could ultimately reset the quarterback market as well as rewrite the record books. He is the first player in NFL history to deliver back-to-back games with at least three touchdown passes and 100 yards rushing.

His 12 total touchdowns (two rushing) are more than 30 of the other 31 teams (the Detroit Lions have as many as him).

Asked if he takes pride in these performances that have never been seen before, Jackson said, “I just want to win. By doing that, I just got to do what I do — play Lamar football.”

Hitting the bull’s-eye

Earlier in his career, Jackson would bolt the pocket if no receivers were open or if he felt immediate pressure. These days, he’s hitting his targets in the end zone through the smallest of windows.

His 16-yard touchdown pass Sunday to tight end Mark Andrews, who leapt over Patriots safety Devin McCourty, had a 13% completion probability, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s the lowest of any completion in Jackson’s career and the lowest on any touchdown pass in the NFL this season.

Jackson later connected with wide receiver Devin Duvernay on a 4-yard touchdown pass in the corner of the end zone. Duvernay had 0.7 yards of separation.

“He’s one of a kind,” Andrews said of Jackson. “There’s no one who’s really able to do what he can do for a team.”

Jackson has thrown a league-best three touchdown passes and no interceptions when throwing into tight windows this season. This is a major improvement from last season, when he had no touchdowns and four interceptions when passing with less than one yard of separation.

“I’m just getting them the ball, that’s all,” Jackson said. “I feel like I’ve got 100% comfort in my guys that they’re going to make that play. Just give them a chance. That’s all we talk about.”

‘Engine is bigger’

No one really knew the effect of Jackson adding over 10 pounds of lean muscle and bulking up to 230 pounds. Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman suggested Jackson could be faster because “his engine is bigger.”

Whatever the reason, Jackson has been able to reverse a concerning trend. Over the previous couple of seasons, Jackson’s rushing average has declined from 6.9 yards per carry (2019) to 6.3 (2020) to 5.8 (2021).

Last season, only five of Jackson’s 133 runs went for 20-plus yards (3.7%). This year, he has been more selective when he runs, but he’s been much more explosive. Jackson has totaled three runs of 20 or more plus yards on 26 carries (11.5%), breaking free for gains of 79, 38 and 20 yards.

“I told you guys plenty of times I was going to be good,” Jackson said of the additional pounds Sunday, “and I feel like I’m showing it.”

Two weeks ago, Jackson recorded the longest run of his career, zipping past the Dolphins for a 79-yard touchdown. His previous best was 50 yards.

On that run option, Jackson reached a maximum speed of 20.48 mph, which ranked among the 15 fastest times of any ball carrier in the first two weeks of the season.

“What the guy does day in and day out, I think nobody can duplicate it in the league,” Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey said.

‘Not a lightbulb thing’

In each of the past two offseasons, the talk has been that the league has finally figured out Jackson.

Last November, Jackson’s season spiraled downward after he struggled against the Dolphins’ Cover-Zero scheme. The Ravens were held to 10 points, their fewest ever with Jackson as their starter, in Week 10 in Miami. Teams blitzed Jackson heavily after that, which led to six interceptions and 13 sacks in his last three full games of 2021.

In watching how Jackson dissects defenses this year, it looks like the game has slowed down for him.

“I just think it’s a natural next step in terms of finding his rhythm during the week, what he’s looking at, how he studies defenses, how he breaks defenses down,” Harbaugh said. “It’s not a lightbulb thing, it’s an evolution of studying the game that you see quarterbacks go through.

“He’s still a young quarterback (25). You watch him play, does it look like he understands what he’s going up against and what he’s dealing with out there? That’s the result of that process and that work effort that he’s putting in. It’s really impressive.”

In Sunday’s 37-26 victory in New England, Jackson excelled under pressure. He was 9-of-10 for 110 yards and four touchdowns against the Patriots’ blitz. He has six touchdowns against the blitz, which is already one more than what he had all of last season.

Harbaugh raved about how Jackson is running the show offensively. He’s making the checks and managing the clock.

Asked whether Jackson gets enough credit for commanding the huddle, Harbaugh essentially shrugged his shoulders.

“I’m trying to answer that question for four years now,” he said. “I answer it here every time we have a press conference. I basically say the same thing because it’s true every week. Yes, if there’s people out there that doubt that at this point in time, I don’t know what to say to them. I don’t think we can help them at this point.”

CLEVELAND

EDGE MYLES GARRETT did not escape his car crash without injury.  Jake Trotter ofESPN.com:

Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett suffered a shoulder sprain and a biceps strain as well as cuts and bruises in the one-car crash he was involved in Monday afternoon, general manager Andrew Berry said in a statement.

Garrett, 26, was released from a Cleveland hospital the same day after being treated for the injuries. Berry said Tuesday said Garrett cleared concussion protocol but that his status for Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons is up in the air.

The crash occurred after Garrett left practice at the Browns’ training facility in Berea, Ohio.

“Currently, our focus is on providing Myles the medical care needed for him to return to football activity,” Berry said in the statement. “Although we hope to have him back soon, his availability for Sunday’s game in Atlanta will be evaluated by team doctors throughout the week.”

According to the Ohio State Highway Patrol, Garrett crashed his 2021 Porsche near Wadsworth, Ohio, at around 3 p.m. The vehicle went off the side of the road and flipped over before coming to a rest. A female passenger who was in the vehicle was taken to the hospital with non-life-threatening injuries.

Highway patrol said impairment by drugs or alcohol was not suspected and that Garrett and the woman were both wearing seat belts. The crash is under investigation.

Body cam footage provided to ESPN by the Medina County Sherriff’s Office showed first responders tending to Garrett shortly after the crash.

First responders are seen examining both of Garrett’s arms while he sits on the grass. Eventually, they help Garrett off the ground and walk slowly with him to a nearby ambulance.

The female passenger is seen lying down while another responder examines her.

BUFFALO

The Bills have added CB XAVIER RHODES.  Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com:

The Buffalo Bills are experiencing a rough stretch of injuries, and no spot on the roster has suffered more than the secondary.

The Bills have added significant depth to the cornerback position by officially signing veteran Xavier Rhodes to the team’s practice squad on Wednesday.

Rhodes confirmed the news in a tweet Tuesday evening that read #BillsMafia.

Rhodes, 32, most recently played for the Indianapolis Colts from 2020-21, starting 29 games over two seasons. He spent the first seven years of his career with the Minnesota Vikings. Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier was coach of the Vikings when Rhodes was drafted 25th overall in 2013 out of Florida State. The three-time Pro Bowler was named First Team All-Pro in 2017 and is also a former Vikings teammate of Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

Rhodes has started 126 games, recording 13 interceptions and 453 career tackles. He dealt with a calf injury during his final season with the Colts.

“We always like to start inside of the building [when help is needed],” coach Sean McDermott said Monday. “In terms of the guys that are here working and working hard and developing. If we need to, though, we will go outside of the building.”

NEW ENGLAND

Media rumblings say that the Patriots are trying to rush QB MAC JONES back from a potentially serious ankle injury.  Or that the timid QB is showing excessive caution.  This from James Stewart:

@IAmJamesStewart

The Patriots and Mac Jones are at a disagreement about how to move forward.

Patriots want to get him back as soon as possible and he’s hesitant to their guidance and wants to proceed with caution. 2nd opinion.

Pats timeline is 4 weeks max, he’s comfortable waiting 6-8 if needed.

NEW YORK JETS

Zach is back.  QB ZACH WILSON will start Sunday against the Steelers.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Jets are set to get quarterback Zach Wilson in the lineup this weekend.

Head coach Robert Saleh announced on Wednesday that Wilson has been cleared by doctors to return from the surgery he had to repair the meniscus in his knee after getting hurt in the team’s preseason opener last month. This was the news that the team expected to hear and it puts Wilson in line to start against the Steelers in Week Four.

“It’s really just exciting for him to get back on the football field,” Saleh said. “It’s been six weeks. There’s a lot of different things that have to go around in terms of making sure we run an efficient offense. From us as coaches to O-line to receivers running routes, everybody’s involved. It is exciting to get him back out there, but, at the same time, it’s not all about Zach. It’s making sure we’re executing on all cylinders as we should every week.”

Wilson will be playing behind an injury-diminished offensive line, but he has a stronger set of targets than he had as a rookie and the Jets will be looking for him to make a big step forward from where he was last season. Sunday will be the first chance to see if that’s going to happen.

THIS AND THAT

RANKING THE LAST 20 SUPER BOWL WINNERS

What was the best of the last 20 champion teams?  Mike Sando and Austin Mock of The Athletic tackle that challenge – going from top to bottom, noting that their analytics method produced a top four teams that didn’t win the Super Bowl:

The first two decades following the NFL’s most recent realignment spanned most of the New England Patriots’ dynasty. But even as the Patriots were a constant, rules changes encouraging passing production and player safety contributed to the league producing 20 sometimes very different Super Bowl champions during that span.

The game’s evolution complicates efforts to compare teams from the two-back, under-center era to the teams of today. But as The Athletic commemorates the 20th anniversary of the NFL’s move to 32 teams spread over eight divisions, Austin Mock’s betting model allows us to fairly rank the past 20 Super Bowl champs, adjusting for era.

The model has over the past five seasons returned 5 percent profit against the Vegas spread, including about 25 percent since debuting on The Athletic in 2021. Applying the model backward to evaluate past teams requires era adjustment, and once that was completed, the 2004 Patriots and 2013 Seattle Seahawks stood above all other champs from the previous 20 years.

Of course, the best team in a given season doesn’t always win it all, especially in the absence of the seven-game playoff series that other sports use to prevent a single outlier game from determining championship fates. While ranking the last 20 Super Bowl winners, we’ll point out which ones ranked especially high or low among all 640 teams from the past 20 seasons.

To produce a ranking fairly, we compared every team’s metrics to its peers’ metrics in that specific season. Metrics were then adjusted onto the same scale to “level” the playing field. From there, the teams’ metrics were leveraged to project points for (xPF) and points against (xPA) when facing an average NFL team. We then derived a projected margin of victory (xMOV) and a projected win percentage (xWIN) against an average team.

Using the model to rank all 640 teams from 2002 through last season, the 16-0 Patriots from 2007 came out on top, followed by three mid-2000s Indianapolis Colts teams. None of those teams won Super Bowls, however, so they are not listed below. We’ll mention them for context while stacking the past 20 Super Bowl winners, beginning with a tie at the top, and ending with a champ that ranked only 333rd out of those 640 total teams.

T-1. 2004 New England Patriots

xWIN: T-1st | xMOV: 1st | xPF: 5th | xPA: 7th

The Patriots tied Philadelphia for the NFL’s best regular-season record from 2001-2004, then defeated those Eagles in the Super Bowl for their second consecutive championship and third in four seasons. No team since these Patriots has repeated as Super Bowl champion.

This was the Patriots team that added running back Corey Dillon, got a career-best year from him for rushing yardage and ranked No. 1 among these 20 Super Bowl winners in percentage of pass plays gaining more than 15 yards (20.9 percent). Though the model ranks this Patriots team fifth out of all 640 teams, the 2004 Colts, led by peak MVP Peyton Manning, actually outranked them very slightly on the list, checking in at No. 4.

T-1. 2013 Seattle Seahawks

xWIN: T-1st | xMOV: 2nd | xPF: 12th | xPA: 2nd

Seattle added defensive linemen Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril to a defense already featuring emerging young stars in Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor. The upgraded pass-rush helped Seattle hold all but three opposing offenses to less than 21 points in 19 total games. Among the past 20 Super Bowl winners, the model ranks only the 2002 Buccaneers higher than this Seattle team in adjusted points allowed.

3. 2014 New England Patriots

xWIN: 3rd | xMOV: 3rd | xPF: 2nd | xPA: 12th

The model ranks one team from 2014 higher than it ranks these Patriots. That one team, Seattle, nearly had these Patriots beat in the Super Bowl, but could not close out New England. The situationally critical play that Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler made to win that game characterized an opportunistic/situational team overall. Of the past 20 Super Bowl winners, this Patriots team ranks No. 1 for the regular season in: drives starting in opposing territory; special-teams EPA (not factored by the model); and “middle eight” point margin (defined as points scored during the four minutes ending the first half and the four minutes beginning the second half).

4. 2009 New Orleans Saints

xWIN: T-5th | xMOV: 4th | xPF: 4th | xPA: 14th

The Saints were almost always very good on offense with Sean Payton and Drew Brees. The defense was sometimes so poor, the team had losing records even with that Hall of Fame combination leading the offense. The 2009 team had it all: prime Brees with a solid defense (12th among teams in 2009).

5. 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

xWIN: 4th | xMOV: 5th | xPF: 9th | xPA: 4th

While Peyton Manning quarterbacked three of the model’s top four overall teams since 2002, Brady was behind center for three of the top five that won Super Bowls. That includes the 2020 Buccaneers, who rank 27th overall since 2000 and fifth among Super Bowl winners, despite going 1-4 during the regular season against teams that finished above .500.

6. 2006 Indianapolis Colts

xWIN: T-5th | xMOV: 6th | xPF: 1st | xPA: 18th

Four Manning-era Colts teams ranked higher than this one on the overall list since 2002. This team was terrible on defense during the regular season but much better in the playoffs after star safety Bob Sanders returned from injury. This Colts team did rank No. 1 among the past 20 Super Bowl winners in offensive success rate.

7. 2019 Kansas City Chiefs

xWIN: T-5th | xMOV: 7th | xPF: 3rd | xPA: 16th

The 2018 Chiefs team that lost in the playoffs to New England — KC fans might recall an untimely offsides penalty late in the AFC title game — ranks higher than this version on the overall list (14th, compared to 31st for the 2019 team). That team had 30 additional explosive plays on offense, defined as runs of at least 12 yards and passes of at least 16, but this 2019 team won it all.

8. 2010 Green Bay Packers

xWIN: T-8th | xMOV: 8th | xPF: 7th | xPA: 9th

The model discounts defense as a less reliable variable than offense, which is one reason this Packers team is 40th overall since 2002 and ranks behind the Green Bay teams from 2011 (seventh), 2020 (23rd) and 2009 (33rd). This Super Bowl-winning 2010 version is the Packers’ best since 2002 on defense.

9. 2017 Philadelphia Eagles

xWIN: T-8th | xMOV: 9th | xPF: 6th | xPA: 10th

The 2017 Eagles ranked No. 1 among all Philly teams since 2002, while the Super Bowl-losing 2004 version ranked ninth among Eagles teams over that span. The 2004 team was favored to win its regular-season games by 5.7 points on average, most among Philly teams since 2002. Schedule strength was a factor.

10. 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

xWIN: T-10th | xMOV: 10th | xPF: 19th | xPA: 1st

The team with the model’s highest-rated defense among all 640 teams since 2002 ranks only 10th among Super Bowl winners. That is because the offense stands 356th among the 640. The gap between those two rankings is the second-largest in favor of the defense for any of the past 20 Super Bowl winners. Only the 2015 Broncos were more extreme in this direction.

11. 2016 New England Patriots

xWIN: T-10th | xMOV: 11th | xPF: 8th | xPA: 13th

The team famous for its comeback from a 28-3 deficit against Atlanta in the Super Bowl averaged 36 points per game over its final five, including the playoffs. This team covered the point spread 81.3 percent of the time during the regular season. That is tied for the third-best cover rate among all teams since 2002. Only the 2004 Chargers (92.9 percent) and 2003 Patriots (86.7 percent) covered at a higher rate.

12. 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers

With a young Ben Roethlisberger in a run-heavy offense, this Pittsburgh team ranks second among all Steelers teams since 2002, and 71st among all the teams since realignment. That No. 71 ranking is three spots lower than the Seattle team that Pittsburgh defeated in the Super Bowl. It’s also six below the 2009 Steelers team that missed the playoffs with a 9-7 record.

13. 2021 Los Angeles Rams

xWIN: 13th | xMOV: 13th | xPF: 14th | xPA: 5th

This Sean McVay-era Rams Super Bowl team ranks 83rd since 2002, while the 2018 team featuring prime Todd Gurley ranks 29 spots higher at No. 54, despite having lost the Super Bowl to New England. The reason: That 2018 team was the best Rams team on offense since 2002, according to the model. The 2021 team was better on defense, but not enough to overcome the gap.

14. 2003 New England Patriots

xWIN: 14th | xMOV: 14th | xPF: 15th | xPA: 8th

“Buffalo, 31, New England 0″ was the final score of the memorable 2003 Week 1 Lawyer Milloy revenge game as the Patriots opened 2-2 before winning their final 15, including the Super Bowl. This Patriots team was favored by 1.6 points per game on average during the regular season, the third-lowest average among these Super Bowl teams after the two Giants teams. That could help explain why the 2003 Patriots covered the spread 87 percent of the time, best among the Super Bowl winners.

15. 2018 New England Patriots

xWIN: 15th | xMOV: 15th | xPF: 10th | xPA: 19th

These Patriots started 1-2 with losses to Jacksonville (four Blake Bortles TD passes!) and Detroit (the Matt Patricia revenge game) before steadying themselves to win a 10th consecutive AFC East title. New England also made it to its record eighth consecutive AFC title game this season.

T-16. 2011 New York Giants

xWIN: T-16th | xMOV: 16th | xPF: 13th | xPA: 20th

This Giants team was much better on offense than defense, without being elite in either area. The offense ranks first among the last 20 Super Bowl teams in plays that were both extremely good (37) and extremely bad (22), defined as creating swings of at least 3.0 EPA. Examples: Eli Manning’s 99-yard touchdown pass to Victor Cruz on third-and-10 against the Jets versus the Manning pass that Seattle’s Brandon Browner returned 94 yards for a touchdown.

T-16. 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers

xWIN: T-16th | xMOV: 17th | xPF: 18th | xPA: 6th

NFL Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison’s 100-yard interception return for a touchdown was a fitting signature play for a team that was so much better on defense (66th of 640) than on offense (342nd). These Steelers played with the lead on only 43 percent of offensive and defensive snaps. Only the 2007 and 2011 Giants teams played from ahead less frequently among the past 20 Super Bowl winners. How you finish is all that matters, until the time comes to feed the numbers into a model, especially when that model values offense over defense.

18. 2012 Baltimore Ravens

xWIN: 18th | xMOV: 18th | xPF: 16th | xPA: 15th

This Baltimore team isn’t even among the top 10 Ravens teams of the past two decades, but Joe Flacco hit his stride during the playoffs, and Super Bowl rings were ordered for all. The best Ravens team over that span? That would be the 2019 Ravens featuring MVP Lamar Jackson, according to the model. That team ranks 10th among 640 teams. The best Flacco-era Ravens team was the 2009 version, which ranks 66th overall and second among Ravens teams.

19. 2015 Denver Broncos

xWIN: 18th | xMOV: 19th | xPF: 20th | xPA: 3rd

This Denver team’s offense was by far the worst for any Super Bowl winner over the past 20 seasons, ranking 510th out of 640 offenses. That is 154 spots lower than the next-worst Super Bowl-winning offense over that period (the 2002 Buccaneers offense ranked 356th). The Carolina team that Denver beat in the Super Bowl ranks 21st overall since 2002, higher than all but three Super Bowl winners (2004 Patriots, 2013 Seahawks, 2014 Patriots) and much higher than this Broncos team, which is 259th.

20. 2007 New York Giants

xWIN: 20th | xMOV: 20th | xPF: 17th | xPA: 17th

Yes, the 333rd-best team in the model (2007 Giants) defeated the No. 1 team in the model (2007 Patriots) with a Lombardi Trophy at stake. No, the Giants are not going to apologize for that.

QB RANKINGS

We’re curious how Cody Benjamin will place QBs TUA TAGOVAILOA and TREVOR LAWRENCE in his ranking of this week’s 32 starting QBs – 1 to 32.

Nothing steers NFL teams quite like quarterbacks. It’s possible, not probable, to win in spite of them. It’s preferable, not easy, to land the best of them. They are, more than anyone else, the ones who shape the football landscape, week in and week out.

That’s why we’re ranking all 32 starting signal-callers throughout the 2022 season: to take stock of the most important players in the game, sorting everyone from the bona fide superstars to the QBs who might be worth replacing.

Our weekly ranking factors in 1.) current status, 2.) past performance and 3.) future outlook, indicating which QBs we’d rather have both now and for the remainder of this season. That’s why, for example, you’ll find Aaron Rodgers ranked ahead of Tua Tagovailoa, even though the latter has been hot under new coach Mike McDaniel thus far. If you’re looking purely for rankings of the best statistical QBs this year, feel free to peruse your nearest passer-rating leaderboard. If you’re looking for informed but subjective rankings of the NFL’s most reliable signal-callers, this is the place.

Now, without further ado, our Week 4 pecking order:

WEEK 4 QB POWER RANKINGS

1 Patrick Mahomes

The Colts got the best of him in Week 3, but let’s face it: No. 15 remains the most reliable contemporary play-maker at the position. He’s allowed an imperfect outing every once in a while, and his chemistry with new wideouts should only improve.

2 Josh Allen

He couldn’t quite close it out against the Dolphins, but Allen’s physical gifts are almost unmatched league-wide. Through three games, he’s on pace for more than 5,600 yards through the air and another 600+ on the ground.

3 Aaron Rodgers

The numbers aren’t gaudy, and the Packers’ makeshift offense might not hit its stride until the latter months of the season, but as long as A-Rod’s zippy accuracy remains intact, Green Bay can’t be counted out.

4 Justin Herbert

Herbie’s MVP candidacy may well take a hit on an injury-riddled and underperforming team, and he still forces one too many throws. But the laser arm from inside the pocket will ensure he’s one of the best players on the field each week. (+1)

5  Tom Brady

He’s got a lot of similarities to Aaron Rodgers this year: aging on a sluggish and depleted offense, but still with pinpoint accuracy when it matters most. Hopefully he gets some reinforcements, because his arm still has enough juice to make a run. (-1)

6  Lamar Jackson

It’s safe to call him the early front-runner for MVP. He leads the NFL with 12 scores, he’s shown improved confidence airing it out, and his legs remain the most lethal in the game. If he keeps it up, the Ravens will win the AFC North.

7  Joe Burrow

This year might involve Burrow trying to outdo not only other teams but himself and his own squad, thanks to his penchant for risky or overlong plays behind an iffy line. Fortunately he’s still elite at the fundamentals from the pocket.

8 Matthew Stafford

Just three games in, it’s pretty clear he’s not gonna be repeating his MVP-caliber production from a year ago. But Stafford’s raw arm talent and feel for the game still offset his ill-timed throws. Let’s hope his elbow can survive when he is required to regularly throw deep again.

9  Kyler Murray

He’s almost impossible to grade, because his top-five athleticism as the NFL’s most frenetic scrambler rarely produces consistent results in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. For all the promise, he and Arizona have yet to take hold of the “it” factor.

10 Jalen Hurts

If Lamar Jackson is speedy and Kyler Murray is shifty, then Hurts is the happy medium — a gliding runner with the physicality to break tackles. Better yet, he’s suddenly a much more confident and accurate deep passer, suggesting he is, in fact, the Eagles’ QB of the future. (+1)

11 Russell Wilson

Funny he plays for the Broncos now, because Wilson’s ugly start in Denver is reminiscent in some ways to the Tim Tebow experience — erratic accuracy, slow decision-making, but clutch late-game athleticism. It’s hard to determine whether he’s actually declining or he just needs more time to settle in. (-1)

12  Kirk Cousins

As always, he’s on the outskirts of the “franchise” tier: always capable of highlight-reel game-winners, but rarely when the lights are brightest.

13 Derek Carr

He and Cousins are forever linked in these exercises. The gusto is there, as are some pretty throws down the stretch (like his TD to Davante Adams in Week 3), but the big wins are not. Las Vegas is 0-3 for many reasons, but he hasn’t exactly steered the ship to safety.

14 Trevor Lawrence

All that pre-draft talk of “generational talent” is finally starting to pay off. Lawrence is slinging it into tight windows with confidence under Doug Pederson, looking quite a bit like Justin Herbert in recent weeks. (+1)

15  Tua Tagovailoa

It sure helps to have a spunky coach and a pair of dynamic wideouts. He’s following the Jalen Hurts track, bar for bar, except with pinpoint strikes as opposed to dual-threat magic. (+1)

16  Ryan Tannehill

New week, same story with Tannehill: when Derrick Henry is trucking, he’s pulling his own weight as the point guard. The Titans will go as far as their QB’s supporting cast will take them. (+1)

17  Jimmy Garoppolo

The 49ers got the full package of Jimmy G on Sunday night. The savvy vet showed nice rhythm early, giving Kyle Shanahan a reliable offensive figurehead, but he also ended the night with a handful of absent-minded errors, including stepping out of the end zone for a safety. (-3)

18  Matt Ryan

Don’t ask him to air it out in a shootout anymore, but Ryan was a truly tough soldier guiding the Colts to an upset of the Chiefs. At 37, he took a beating but stood tall down the stretch to hit on short-area targets in crunch time. (+1)

19  Carson Wentz

He and the Commanders’ battered line refused to help each other in an ugly loss to the Eagles, reiterating the truth about Wentz: his arm remains well above-average, but if he can’t make the layups or think on his feet, his team is all but doomed. (-1)

20  Jared Goff

Here’s something we didn’t expect to write going into 2022: the Lions almost assuredly would’ve beaten the Vikings if they had just let Goff keep throwing it in Week 3. He’s not been particularly accurate as a whole, but he’s done a nice job feeding his young play-makers. (+2)

21 Jameis Winston

We’re entering Week 4 and still searching for a complete game from Jameis, who’s evidently still affected by back and ankle injuries. Don’t be surprised if the Saints call upon Andy Dalton sooner rather than later.

22  Geno Smith

We’re now entering the tier of QBs who may or may not be better served as backups. But Geno has been attacking more than expected, ironically giving Pete Carroll reason to be more pass-inclined after the departure of Russell Wilson. (+4)

23  Justin Fields

The Bears have been competitive, but not because of anything Fields is doing as a QB. This standing is based almost solely on his athleticism, which is apparent whenever he moves. Chicago simply does not trust him to operate an aerial offense.

24  Jacoby Brissett

After a rough start as Deshaun Watson’s fill-in, Brissett has settled in to pick his throws more carefully. He’s always had veteran poise; the problem has been sustaining accuracy as a more conservative decision-maker. (+8)

25 Baker Mayfield

His quest to parlay a trial run with the Panthers into a long-term starting gig got the slightest of boosts in Week 3, but it took all of his might to just barely beat the Saints.

26  Cooper Rush

So maybe Jerry Jones really is onto something, outlandishly teasing Rush as a potential Dak Prescott successor? In all seriousness, he’s been ready for the moment, delivering lots of pretty downfield throws and avoiding major miscues. Now 3-0 as an emergency starter, his football IQ appears rock-solid. (+5)

27 Davis Mills

More of the same in Houston, where Mills’ reign as the underrated gem of the 2021 QB class is fast approaching a potential end. He picked the worst times to turn the ball over in a winnable Week 3 loss to Chicago. (-3)

28  Daniel Jones

Is every single one of his starts the exact same? Jones is always fleeing the pass rush behind a bad O-line, always flashing Pro Bowl-caliber athleticism, and somehow always on the wrong end of crunch-time throws. He’s rarely had much help, but he’s rarely lifted his team. (+2)

29  Marcus Mariota

Speedy, scrappy and totally replaceable for a team that’s managed to hang around in each of its first three games. (-2)

30 Joe Flacco

A week after his calm pocket presence helped the Jets to an inspiring upset, Flacco’s immobility came back to bite the team against the Bengals, when he had no choice but to fold to pressure or throw into traffic. (-1)

31  Mitch Trubisky

The Steelers keep playing it safe and relying on things other than Trubisky’s legs, which is an indictment on the coaching staff, but the passing confidence just isn’t there. (-3)

32  Brian Hoyer

The interim replacement for the injured Mac Jones, the 36-year-old is 1-11 in his last 12 starts under center.

Something seems amiss with Tua below Cousins.  Not sure if Tua is too low or Cousins too high.