Actually, we might have thought more than $35 billion was bet on the NFL  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Business is booming for betting on the NFL.

The American Gaming Association estimates that $35 billion will be bet legally on the NFL this season, according to CNBC. That would be a 30 percent increase over last season, thanks to three more states legalizing sports gambling (bringing the total to 38 states where it’s legal to bet on the NFL) and the proliferation of betting options leading more people to bet more money.

More than 95 percent of that betting will be done online, as apps make it easier than ever to gamble from home, and while watching games.

For most of its history, the NFL distanced itself from gambling, often talking about the ills associated with gambling — including the obvious fact that most people who bet on sports lose money doing so. But since the 2018, when states beyond Nevada began to legalize sports betting, the league has embraced gambling as a way to increase interest in football. For the NFL, legal gambling has been good for business, and the growth of gambling doesn’t appear close to stopping.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

The was some question as to whether, with the current state of the law in California, the unnamed 17-year-old assailant of WR RICKY PEARSALL would receive significant charges.  He has, per NBCBayArea:

The 17-year-old suspect accused of shooting 49ers rookie Ricky Pearsall during an attempted robbery in San Francisco last Saturday has been charged with attempted murder, the district attorney’s office announced Tuesday.

San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins said the unidentified suspect is also facing assault with a semi-automatic firearm and attempted robbery charges.

The suspect is scheduled to be arraigned Wednesday afternoon, Jenkins said.

“At this time, because we are dealing with a minor, there is very little that I can share beyond what I have just said with respect to the charges and with respect to how things will move forward,” Jenkins said.

Jenkins did note that the charges against the suspect will be filed in the juvenile court. After that, a judge can rule on the minor’s fitness to be transferred to adult court. The DA’s office will decide whether or not to seek that fitness hearing as the case moves forward.

If the case remains in juvenile court, the suspect will remain in juvenile custody rather than serve county jail time as an adult, Jenkins explained. The DA stated it was too early to say whether or not she believed the teen suspect should be tried as an adult as information about the crime is collected.

Pearsall, meanwhile, is recovering well, 49ers general manager/president of football operations John Lynch said Tuesday.

More from Lynch’s visit from Matt Barrows and Austin Morale of The Athletic:

San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch said Tuesday rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall, who was shot in the chest during an attempted robbery Saturday, is with the team and “doing really well.”

“Nothing short of miraculous that he came out of this as good as he did,” Lynch said.

Lynch said Pearsall had just completed an autograph session and was out shopping for luggage when the attempted robbery and shooting occurred. He said he was able to get to the hospital and speak to Pearsall whose initial concern was about a team party that was scheduled for later that day.

“One of the first things he said was ‘Mr. Lynch, what’s going on. I’d really like everyone to go to that party and I’d also like to talk to some of my teammates,’” he said.

The 49ers were able to FaceTime with Pearsall at the party, which Lynch said was a cool moment.

San Francisco placed Pearsall on the reserve/non-football injury list Monday, meaning he will miss at least the 49ers’ first four regular-season games.

Lynch said Pearsall was “disappointed but understood” the team’s decision.

“I think some of his earliest concerns was when he could play,” Lynch said. “… but we first and foremost, we’re gonna make sure that he’s all good and, and ready to go.”

AFC WEST

DENVER

The Broncos now have the highest paid DB in the NFL.  Jordan Dajani ofCBSSports.com:

Top 5 highest-paid CBs

Player                          Team      AAV     Total Value

Patrick Surtain II Broncos    $24M       $96M

Jaire Alexander Packers        $21M       $84M

A.J. Terrell Falcons                $20.25M  $81M

Denzel Ward Browns            $20.1M     $100.5M

Jalen Ramsey Dolphins        $20M        $100M

The Denver Broncos found a cornerstone of their defense with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and less than a week before the 2024 season opener, the front office has locked him in for the future. The Broncos and cornerback Patrick Surtain II have agreed on a four-year, $96 million extension which includes $77.5 million guaranteed, CBS Sports lead NFL insider Jonathan Jones confirms.

This contract makes Surtain the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history, and his new AAV of $24 million surpasses Green Bay Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander’s $21 million per year mark. The highest-paid safety is Antoine Winfield Jr., who signed a four-year, $84.1 million deal that has an AAV of $21.025 million with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this offseason.

Surtain, whose father, Patrick Surtain, was also a star defensive back that played 11 NFL seasons, has made the Pro Bowl in each of the past two seasons, and was named a First Team All-Pro in 2022. He also became the first-ever Broncos player to record 10+ passes defended in each of his first three NFL seasons since the statistic was first tracked in 1991.

In CBS Sports’ top 20 positional rankings entering 2024, Surtain was listed as the No. 2 cornerback in the NFL behind Sauce Gardner of the New York Jets, who now has a new number to shoot for in his upcoming contract negotiations. In fact, Gardner even responded to the breaking news on social media with dollar signs for eyes.

AFC NORTH

PITTSBURGH

Adam LaRose of ProFootballRumors.com reports on the extension for DE CAMERON HEYWARD:

The Steelers’ latest extension efforts with Cameron Heyward have produced a deal. The All-Pro defensive lineman has an agreement in place on a another lucrative extension, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports. The move is now official, per an announcement from his agency.

Heyward is now attached to a three-year, $45MM deal, Fowler adds. The pact includes $29MM in new money along with $16MM in guarantees (nearly $15MM of which is comprised of a signing bonus). These terms will allow Heyward to reach his stated goal of finishing his career as a Steeler.

One year remained on the 35-year-old’s pact, but he made it clear this offseason he was seeking a two-year extension. Today’s news means he will be in place through 2026 as he intended and put to rest the possibility of a free agent departure next spring. Heyward has spent his entire 13 years in the NFL with Pittsburgh, and his decorated tenure will all-but certainly conclude in the city.

Arriving with the Steelers as a first-round pick in 2011, Heyward did not see any starts during his first two seasons with the team. Since then, he has been a stalwart along the defensive line, regularly providing a high-end pass rush presence in the interior. He earned a Pro Bowl nod every year from 2017 to ’22, posting double-digit sacks three times during that span.

Heyward landed a five-year extension in 2015, and a four-year re-up in 2020. He has proven to be a sound investment both times from the Steelers’ perspective, but last year saw him miss time due to a groin injury. Heyward was limited to just two sacks in 2023, and while he is now healthy questions were raised in the offseason about his long-term outlook. As Fowler notes, this is believed to be the largest commitment ever made to a defender at age 35 or older. Suffice it to say, the Steelers are banking on Heyward regaining his previous form.

With four All-Pro nods on his resume (three first-team, one second-team), the Ohio State alum could remain a key member of Pittsburgh’s highly-compensated defense if he manages to put together a healthy campaign. He was due $16MM in 2024 under the terms of his old deal, one which will be replaced by this new accord. Heyward’s scheduled cap hit of $22.41MM will be lowered by this agreement Specifically, his 2024 salary has been converted into a signing bonus; that will save the Steelers over $9MM in cap space (h/t Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

It was learned earlier this week that Heyward – who floated the idea of joining a new team in free agency without a deal in place – had recently re-engaged with the Steelers on contract talks. Pittsburgh has a strict policy against negotiating in-season, creating Week 1 as a deadline for both parties to hammer out an agreement. That has now proven to be the case, and general manager Omar Khan has one less piece of business to attend to over the coming days.

Pittsburgh is also eyeing a deal with tight end Pat Freiermuth. 2024 marks the final year of his rookie contract, so getting an extension worked out on that front would prevent the potential of a March 2025 departure on the open market. Regardless of how that process plays out, Heyward will remain in the fold for the foreseeable future.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

The filing of a lawsuit led to the firing of PK BRANDON McMANUS.

Now, that lawsuit is dismissed, because the flight attendants in question wished to gain their judgment in anonymity.  The case may not be over as attorney Tony Buzbee, who we are well familiar with from the claims against QB DESHAUN WATSON, indicates they will re-file publicly.

Garry Smits of the Florida Times-Union:

Circuit Court Judge Michael S. Sharrit on Tuesday granted a motion to dismiss a lawsuit against former Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Brandon McManus brought by two flight attendants on the team’s charter to London last year.

The two women accused McManus of sexual misconduct and the team of failing to supervise McManus’ behavior and “failing to create a safe environment” for the flight’s staff. They are seeking damages in excess of $1 million.

McManus’ attorneys filed the motion to dismiss because the plaintiffs’ attorneys had not included their names in court filings and were identified as “Jane Doe I and Jane Doe II.”

The judge agreed with the firm of McLaughlin and Stern that the plaintiffs’ desire to keep their identities in court filings ran counter to a “well-established rule [that] lawsuits are public events and the public has a legtimate interest in knowing the facts involved in them; including the identity of the parties.”

The defense’s motion also said, “those defending against unverified and unproven allegations in a complaint would be at a serious disadvantage since they are required to defend themselves publicly while making their unverified and unproven allegations proceed in anonymity.”

Sharrit dismissed the suit without prejudice, which means the plaintiffs are free to refile an amended complaint.

“We are very pleased with the court’s order in connection with Mr. McManus’ motion to dismiss these baseless allegations,” Brett Gallaway, McManus’ attorney, said in a statement texted to the Times-Union. “We look forward to him returning to the NFL playing field as soon as possible.”

Tony Buzbee, the attorney for the Plaintiffs, told ESPN in a statement that the suit would be refiled.

“Most defendants in sexual assault cases file these types of motions thinking that the victims won’t proceed if they have to publicly reveal their names,” Buzbee said in the statement to ESPN. “We anticipated this ruling. To be clear, these women have no intention to run and hide, and will comply with the court’s order in a timely fashion. We look forward to continuing to pursue this important case.”

AFC EAST

NEW YORK JETS

CB MICHAEL CARTER has a new deal.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

As a crucial member of a tenacious New York Jets defense, Michael Carter II has become one of the finest slot cornerbacks in the NFL.

Now, Gang Green is paying him as such.

Carter and the Jets have agreed to terms on a three-year, $30.75 million extension that will make him the highest-paid slot corner in the league, NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported Tuesday.

Carter’s extension carries a max value of $33 million with slightly more than $19 million in total guarantees, Pelissero added.

A 2021 NFL Draft fifth-round pick out of Duke, Carter was memorably one of two Michael Carters taken by the Jets that year. He’s the only Michael Carter remaining on the squad now, though, and has stood tall for a defense that finished third in yards allowed in 2023 and second against the pass.

The 25-year-old, who was entering the final season of his rookie contract, is coming off the best season of his career. He garnered a career-high 80.4 PFF grade — including an 83.3 coverage grade — while recording 50 tackles and nine pass breakups.

Carter could’ve been a top-flight free agent come March, but instead, the Jets are locking up one of their brightest young talents.

THIS AND THAT

BILL BARNWELL’S PREDICTED PLAYOFF FIELD

Verbose Bill Barnwell tells us what will happen this season (we edit it quite a bit):

Barnwell’s Projected 2024 Playoff Field

Teams are in alphabetical order in each conference

AFC                                             NFC

Baltimore Ravens                     Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills                              Dallas Cowboys

Cincinnati Bengals                   Detroit Lions

Jacksonville Jaguars               Green Bay Packers

Kansas City Chiefs                   Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Chargers             New Orleans Saints

New York Jets                            San Fra ncisco 49ers

The final week before the NFL season is when we think we know the most, and that makes it the perfect time to pick playoff teams for the campaign to come. Without any real football to pick apart or digest over the past nearly seven months, opinions on what is about to happen coalesce. We know the sexy Super Bowl pick, the sleeper about to make the leap and the teams that are locks to return to the postseason.

And then Week 1 arrives and all our feelings get blown out of the water. What we thought this time last year didn’t amount to much for very long. The Jets were the trendy Super Bowl pick, and that lasted for four offensive snaps. The Bengals had the fourth-highest odds to make it to the postseason after back-to-back deep runs, and a Week 1 blowout loss to the Browns signaled the AFC North wasn’t going to be a breeze. Six of the 15 teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds before the 2023 season didn’t even make it to the postseason.

On the flip side, long shots that would have been laughed off as potential playoff teams before the season made it in. The Buccaneers, who spent the offseason observing a quarterback battle between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, had the sixth-longest Super Bowl odds when the season started. They made the playoffs. The Rams, the 24th-ranked team by ESPN’s Football Power Index, made it. Before the season, I observed that 14 of the 16 teams in the AFC were actively competing like they expected to make it into the postseason. The two teams that were exceptions to that group — the Colts and Texans — both posted winning records and essentially competed in a play-in game for the AFC South crown in Week 18.

It would have seemed ridiculous at this time a year ago to suggest the 3-13-1 Texans would make the playoffs and the 12-4 Bengals would miss out, and yet, that’s exactly what happened. We’re often too conservative in expecting teams that made it to the postseason last year to return the following season. The league moves faster than any of us expect.

Since the league moved to the 14-team playoff format in 2020, only about half the teams reaching one postseason return the following season. Seven franchises that made it to the playoffs in 2020 got back in 2021. The same number returned for 2022, while eight teams that made it that year got back this past season. That’s an average of 7.3 teams per season.

That’s a small sample, but if we look back to 2002 and the beginning of the league’s 32-team era and project which teams would have made the playoffs as the 7-seed if it had included 14 teams, the numbers don’t change by much. While acknowledging that teams might have acted differently late in the season if a potential playoff spot were available, an average of 7.9 teams would have made it back in a 14-team system. If we’re generous and round up, that means eight teams stay in, six teams leave and six new teams take their place.

What if we build a playoff field that way, picking six teams that aren’t going to make it back to the postseason? Which six teams are out? And which six take their place? I’m going to take that challenge. I’ll start by going through the eight teams I expect to return, identify the six I’m projecting to miss out and finish by picking six that missed the playoffs a year ago but should get in this season.

I’m not sure I made any predictions quite as brave as landing on the 3-13-1 Texans as a playoff team, but I’m sure there will be a surprise or two along the way. (Playoff odds are as of publication, via ESPN BET.  Chances to make the playoffs are from ESPN’s Football Power Index.)

Teams returning to the postseason

Kansas City Chiefs

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -550

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 87.1%

Probably not much of a surprise, right? If you read my column on the teams most likely to improve in 2024, you know I’m high on the Chiefs.

Baltimore Ravens

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -280

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 78.5%

The Ravens were on my list of teams to decline. That’s partly because it’s hard for a team with 13 wins to repeat, but there are other factors in play here. They posted the league’s best turnover margin, which is tough to sustain. They were a massive outlier in terms of red zone performance versus the rest of the NFL. And they lost a handful of key contributors from a dominant defense, including defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who is head coach of the Seahawks.

The Ravens are essentially starting over on the offensive line after losing three starters this past offseason, which might impact the one thing that seems to lock them into the playoffs year after year. Having Lamar Jackson present and accounted for is usually enough to guarantee a playoff berth, as they have gone a staggering 58-19 (.753) with the two-time MVP in the starting lineup since he entered the league. Post-Thanksgiving injuries to Jackson in back-to-back seasons, though, cost Baltimore a playoff spot in 2021 and a division title in 2022.

This team should have a 10-win floor if Jackson’s available for 17 games, but if the line doesn’t come together and Jackson misses time, the Ravens are at serious risk of surprisingly missing the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -170

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 70.2%

There are serious questions about a Buffalo team in transition from the core that came up with coach Sean McDermott and Josh Allen.

I suppose this is a vote for both Allen and McDermott, the latter of whom has managed to do an excellent job of molding defensive draftees into meaningful contributors while getting more out of veterans than other coaches did in their prior stops in Buffalo. (Poyer and Hyde, who became the best safety duo in football, are classic examples of that.) I have faith Allen will find success spreading the ball around to a young, talented receiving corps, and that the Bills will piece together their sixth consecutive season with at least 10 wins.

Dallas Cowboys

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -195

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 77.8%

Unlike the Bills, the Cowboys lost more meaningful players off the team that won the NFC East a year ago.

Also unlike the Bills, the Cowboys aren’t stuck in the pressure cooker that is the AFC. The bar for playoff entry in the NFC doesn’t appear to be quite as high, and two other teams in Dallas’ division appeared in my list of teams likely to decline

Detroit Lions

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -250

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 80.6%

While the numbers suggest the 12-5 Lions had the point differential of a 10-win team last season, they should have enough to make a return trip to the postseason.

Green Bay Packers

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -165

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 65.2%

Here comes an even younger version of the Lions, as the team that fielded the league’s most youthful snap-adjusted roster in football and the least-experienced receiving corps in modern league history hopes to deliver on the promise we saw in the second half. The Packers went 6-2 down the stretch, with Jordan Love leading the NFL in QBR and posting an 18-to-1 ratio in touchdowns to interceptions. He did that without starting left tackle David Bakhtiari and with limited contributions from presumptive top wideout Christian Watson, who is back in the NFL’s most excitingly murky wide receivers room.

The big change here is at defensive coordinator, where Jeff Hafley joins from the college ranks. If Hafley sticks to what he did at Boston College, the Packers are going to play single-high coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, something they prepared for by signing safety Xavier McKinney in free agency and drafting Javon Bullard in the second round. We saw the Browns revitalize a defense full of underwhelming high draft picks by hiring Jim Schwartz and moving toward a man-heavy scheme. If Green Bay does the same and gets even vaguely similar results, it could be the best team in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -450

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 85.6%

Amid all the conversations about trades and holdouts, it almost seems like an afterthought that the 49ers will line up and play football Monday night against the Jets. On paper, everybody within the core who led them to the NFC title returns for another attempt at winning a Super Bowl, including left tackle Trent Williams, who ended his holdout this week.

Barring a rash of injuries to Purdy and his fellow superstars atop the San Francisco roster, this team will be back in the playoffs for another run.

Los Angeles Rams

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +300

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 47.2%

When I started doing this exercise, I had seven playoff candidates I felt good about picking, all of whom are the ones you see above. The eighth spot was toughest, as I struggled to pick between the Rams and the Eagles. I have reservations about both teams, although those concerns are different. About the only thing they have in common is losing a Hall of Famer along the line of scrimmage, as both Jason Kelce and Aaron Donald retired this offseason.

For the Rams, replacing Donald (and departed defensive coordinator Raheem Morris) will be a burden. Blessed with the most draft capital they’ve seen in nearly a decade, they used their top two picks on defensive linemen Jared Verse and Braden Fiske, then added veterans to one of the league’s youngest secondaries from a year ago. It was a surprise to see them trade starting linebacker Ernest Jones for a swap of Day 3 picks, but I’m willing to give general manager Les Snead some benefit of the doubt. The Rams will miss Donald, but they should be fine on defense.

I’m placing my faith in coach Sean McVay and his almost-pristine track record of getting the Rams to play at a high level, barring a 2022 season that was impacted by a historically brutal stretch of injuries to the offensive line and just about every veteran member of the team’s core. In my playoff picture, the final two wild-card berths in the NFC are a slugfest between a bunch of nine- or 10-win teams. L.A. hosts the Eagles in Week 12, and that home-field advantage was just enough for me to lean in its direction over Philadelphia’s.

Who’s out (and who’s in)

If you paid attention in the prior section, you already know the six postseason teams from 2023 I’ve projected to make the playoffs this season. If you just skimmed for your team or skipped ahead to this section, well, get ready to be surprised!

While some of these aren’t necessarily like-for-like replacements in terms of where they stand within the playoff picture, the simplest way to do this is to identify each franchise I project to miss the postseason and then a team that will essentially replace them this January. Let’s start with the team I was just discussing …

OUT: Philadelphia Eagles

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -275

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 79.4%

A few of these teams, the Eagles included, featured in my list of teams likely to decline. I won’t lay out that entire article again, but the Eagles were actually meaningfully worse than their record last season, with their early-season performance buoyed by a unsustainable performance in one-score games. They’re meaningfully worse on the offensive line, where Jason Kelce is retired and both Mekhi Becton and Tyler Steen are already battling injuries, and relying heavily on young players who haven’t yet broken out to excel on the defensive line.

There are two scenarios for this team. In the positive one, running back Saquon Barkley excels after a massive situation/line improvement, taking some of the pressure off Jalen Hurts. The young draftees (and the return of defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson) in the secondary solidify a group that aged rapidly during the second half. Vic Fangio is a major upgrade at defensive coordinator, the pass rush comes together and a complete Philadelphia team improves its turnover margin and underlying level of play and wins the NFC East comfortably.

The other one doesn’t go quite as well. The two new coordinators fail to make an immediate impact. The oft-injured Barkley only lasts half a season, and the offensive line battles injuries and inconsistent play on the interior all season. Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean aren’t immediate impact players at cornerback, and the Eagles are behind the curve in running a Fangio defense that seems to have peaked in effectiveness a couple of years ago, leading to lots of long, comfortable drives for opposing offenses.

I fall somewhere between the two, but I lean toward the latter scenario as more likely. In this universe, the Eagles finish 9-8 and just miss out on a wild-card berth.

IN: Chicago Bears

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -110

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 41.6%

The Bears are the exact sort of team that usually gets underestimated when we’re projecting the postseason. The most common driver of sudden, dramatic increases in performance is when a team goes from replacement-level quarterback play to average or better work, as the Texans did a year ago in going from Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel to C.J. Stroud. We don’t know whether first overall pick Caleb Williams will be as good as Stroud was during the latter’s spectacular rookie campaign, but he certainly projects to be a much better player than the duo of Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent, who combined to rank 26th in yards per pass dropback a year ago.

Even if Williams isn’t up to Stroud’s rookie season, the Bears don’t have to improve as much as the Texans did to get into playoff contention — they finished 7-10 in 2023. \

OUT: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +145

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 33.6%

If you believe there’s a clear favorite in the NFC South, you’re more confident than I am. The Bucs were projected to finish last in the division a year ago, but Todd Bowles & Co. coaxed career seasons out of quarterback Baker Mayfield and safety Antoine Winfield, while young players outside linebacker Yaya Diaby, defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and offensive tackle Luke Goedeke looked like potential building blocks along the line of scrimmage.

In a division in which two of the four teams ranked in the bottom five of the league by DVOA, the Bucs were really competing with the Saints, and the two were roughly similar across their shared opponents. The difference was what they did against the Vikings; Tampa Bay pulled out a 20-17 upset on the road in Week 1, while the Saints lost 27-19 in a game in that Derek Carr left because of an injury in the third quarter.

I’m not sure there’s a huge gap between the two this season, and with the Falcons upgrading at quarterback by signing Kirk Cousins, there’s a three-team race. (The Falcons ranked 28th in DVOA last season, though, so even an improved version of the team might struggle to make it to nine wins.) Tampa Bay faces a tougher schedule by virtue of finishing in first place, but that was also the case a year ago, and it managed to overcome that burden to win the South for the third consecutive season.

I’d argue the Bucs lost a little more this offseason. They’re replacing starters at every level of their defense in cornerback Carlton Davis, linebacker Devin White and defensive end Shaq Barrett, although White, a 2019 first-round pick and Super Bowl standout, had been benched by the end of the season. Both teams replaced offensive coordinators, but Tampa Bay’s wasn’t by choice, as Dave Canales was poached for the head-coaching job in Carolina. New OC Liam Coen has had success in the college ranks, but he was one-and-done as the coordinator in Los Angeles under Sean McVay.

IN: New Orleans Saints

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +175

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 29.5%

The Saints, on the other hand, imported some much-needed fresh blood by replacing longtime Sean Payton assistant Pete Carmichael with former Vikings coordinator Klint Kubiak. It’s the first major change to the coaching staff the team has made since Payton’s departure after the 2021 season, and after Carmichael failed to get the most out of Derek Carr, it’s a shift that needed to be made. Quietly, the offense improved as the season went along, as New Orleans rose from 19th in EPA per play during the first half of 2023 to ninth best by the same metric afterward.

The Saints went 9-8 with a 10.5-win point differential last season, and that usually augurs improvement. They were 3-6 in games decided by eight points or fewer. And yet, at the same time, this was the league’s oldest team a year ago, and most of that aging core is back for 2024, some because of financial obligations as opposed to their actual level of play. There’s enough here for one more division title, but the bottom could also fall out fast if some of the veterans from the Drew Brees era break down.

OUT: Miami Dolphins

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -140

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 60.4%

While we’ve paid plenty of attention to the Bills and Cowboys losing talent over the offseason, the Dolphins have sort of flown underneath the radar. The two most expensive non-quarterbacks of free agency were both former Dolphins, as guard Robert Hunt and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins left for big deals in March, while linebacker Jerome Baker was a cap casualty. Center Connor Williams and cornerback Xavien Howard also aren’t back after battling injuries in 2023. Bradley Chubb will start the year on the PUP list after tearing his ACL late last season, while fellow edge rusher Jaelan Phillips will likely be limited early in the year as he returns from a torn Achilles.

Hey, you don’t have to listen to me. Tyreek Hill said this is the best Dolphins team he has been on, and maybe he’s right. Miami added veterans, including defensive lineman Calais Campbell, guard Aaron Brewer and safety Jordan Poyer, to supplement the roster, but after using trades to add players on high-priced contracts such as Hill, Chubb and cornerback Jalen Ramsey in offseasons past and handing Tua Tagovailoa a significant extension, there wasn’t as much wriggle room in the budget this time around.

Mike McDaniel is an offensive genius, and the hope will be that the new coach and his third defensive coordinator in three years (Anthony Weaver) piece together a formula that prevents the Dolphins from slowing down in December and January, when they’ve struggled over the past two seasons. They have relied on Hill, Ramsey and offensive tackle Terron Armstead playing at a high level to sustain them at their best, and they should continue to excel when on the field. Owing to injuries and departures, though, I’m just not sure whether Miami has enough around its core of stars to avoid taking a step backward.

IN: New York Jets

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -170

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 52.9%

The Dolphins likely will feel the heat in the AFC East, where the Patriots and Jets should improve. I’m not sure whether New England really has the offensive talent to leap into playoff contention, but if the Jets actually get something close to a full season from Aaron Rodgers, it should propel them into the postseason picture.

Are there still question marks? Absolutely. Rodgers has barely played football over the past 12 months, and he wasn’t very good as a 39-year-old with the Packers in 2022. His handpicked offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, didn’t show much without Rodgers a year ago. Smith and Williams have significant injury histories. The Jets have a lower floor than most of the other teams in this playoff projection; they could win or lose 12 games depending on what we see from Rodgers in what might be the legendary quarterback’s final campaign. I think we will see them get off to a hot start before the injuries catch up in the second half, leaving just enough for them to get into the postseason as a wild card.

OUT: Cleveland Browns

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +140

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 33.5%

The Browns are another team I covered in my column on teams likely to decline. While the defense we saw from 2023 was real and the offense was saddled with five different starting quarterbacks because of injuries and subpar play, the Browns went 6-2 in one-score games and outplayed their point differential by nearly two full victories.

Cleveland fans are obviously hoping the defense retains all of its gains from last year while the offense improves with a full season from Deshaun Watson, who did go 5-1 as the starter. I covered why the 5-1 mark greatly oversells Watson’s impact, as it includes two games in which he struggled mightily and one in which he left in the first quarter because of an injury.

It’s more likely the defense declines, given the track record of units that make massive single-season improvements on that side of the ball. The defense won’t be bad by any means, but if the Browns slip at all on defense, there are going to be a handful of dangerous teams in the AFC waiting to take their wild-card spot.

IN: Cincinnati Bengals

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -240

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 72.5%

The Bengals should push for a playoff spot after missing out last season. Even with an injury-riddled season limiting Joe Burrow to a handful of healthy starts, they managed to go 9-8 against a first-place schedule. They were the 11th-best team in football by DVOA, placing Zac Taylor’s squad ahead of five other teams that actually made it into the postseason.

Burrow should be back for something closer to a full season in 2024, and while wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s hold-in has lingered into September, there’s little for Chase to gain to continue it into the regular season if his deal doesn’t get done. The line protecting Burrow is as deep on paper as it has been since his arrival, with rookie first-round pick Amarius Mims backing up new right tackle Trent Brown.

The defense should also be improved after restoring veterans at safety, where the team really struggled last season. Re-signing Vonn Bell and adding Geno Stone from the Ravens should allow coordinator Lou Anarumo to be more aggressive with his creative pressures and range of coverage looks, which should address some of the issues the Bengals had in covering opposing passing attacks last season. The young talent Cincinnati has drafted generally hasn’t developed into starting roles, but there should still be enough in the way of veteran skill to keep the defense around league average. With Burrow, that should be enough for a return trip to the postseason.

OUT: Pittsburgh Steelers

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +180

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 29%

Even if you believe the Steelers are incapable of posting a losing record under Mike Tomlin, we’ve seen this team miss the postseason with a .500 or better record as recently as 2022. Nine wins might not be enough for any team to get into the postseason in the AFC in 2024, and unless you’re particularly enthused about Russell Wilson and Justin Fields under center, it’s tough to imagine Pittsburgh having the ceiling to push past 10 wins given the strength of its division.

Tomlin will need to call on all of his powers here. The Steelers were 9-2 in one-score games last season, a feat even his history suggests his team will struggle to repeat.

IN: Los Angeles Chargers

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +115

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 44.8%

The Chargers certainly don’t seem like a playoff team right now. They’re coming off an ugly 5-12 season that saw them fall to last place in the AFC West and fire both their coach and general manager. They let go of their three top playmakers in running back Austin Ekeler and wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and they didn’t really replace them with any sort of notable veteran talent. Their best defensive player, edge rusher Joey Bosa, is already dealing with a broken hand and will start the year with a club to protect the injury.

Look a little closer, though, and things aren’t as bleak. The Chargers had the point differential of a seven-win team and finished 19th in DVOA. Allen was the only one of their three playmakers to play well while staying mostly healthy last season, and even he missed four games. They have made additions, but they just aren’t as sexy: Rookie right tackle Joe Alt has looked like a home run in preseason, giving them the ability to protect franchise quarterback Justin Herbert with what might be one of the best one-two tackle punches in the league.

The biggest addition, though, is at head coach. Jim Harbaugh has a track record of turning teams around quicker than anybody expected.

I would be skeptical of Harbaugh taking the Chargers on a deep playoff run in his first season, especially with the Chiefs in the same division, but this is the sort of formula we typically don’t see coming until it’s too late.

OUT: Houston Texans

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -200

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 64.6%

The most surprising playoff team of 2023, though, might not be back. There’s everything to like about what general manager Nick Caserio has built with his young core of quarterback C.J. Stroud and wideouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell on offense, while edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. look like building blocks on defense. Those guys should continue to improve, and that’s going to keep Houston competitive for years to come.

Around that core? I’m not quite as enthused. Unlike the Lions and Packers, who were two of the youngest teams in football a year ago as they broke into the postseason, the Texans were the fourth-oldest team in the league on a snap-weighted basis.

The Texans also added 30-year-old Stefon Diggs to the mix, and while he was a transcendent wide receiver at his best for the Bills, his numbers declined noticeably during the second half of last season, leading Buffalo to trade him away for a second-round pick. The Texans removed the rest of Diggs’ contract to keep him motivated for a single season in 2024, but that in itself seems telling about where he stands heading into the year. There are more reasons to think he will disappoint in 2024 than live up to his peak seasons.

The other issue is that Houston was more good than great last season. It went 10-7, but that was buoyed by going 7-3 in one-score games. Stroud & Co. posted the league’s fewest turnovers, and while I have no doubt he is a very accurate quarterback, he just posted the 14th-best interception rate for a single season in NFL history as a rookie. The Texans finished 12th in DVOA and 18th in ESPN’s FPI while facing the league’s third-easiest schedule.

This season, after winning the AFC South, they’re projected by the FPI to face the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. It’s worth remembering the Jaguars, who were seemingly locked in as the repeat division champs this time last year, were 8-3 after beating the Texans in Week 12 and in position to take over the top spot in the AFC, only to lose to a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team and have Trevor Lawrence get hurt in the process. Lawrence wasn’t healthy the rest of the way, and Jacksonville won just one of its final six games to fall out of the playoff picture. This season, in a close battle, I have those Jaguars coming out narrowly on top.

IN: Jacksonville Jaguars

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +130

Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 37.5%

It seems a little like the Jaguars have been out of sight and out of mind since the Lawrence injury. Given that they went 14-4 between their bye week in 2022 and that rematch against the Texans in 2023, I’d argue that’s a little premature. Last season was frustrating for the Jaguars even before the disastrous collapse that ended their season, when they struggled to catch passes, stay inbounds or avoid sloppy football in key moments.

Some of the changes the team made this offseason might help.

The Jags were the trendy team in the AFC South last season. The Texans are in that role in 2024. I’m not dismissing the Texans, but if this division lands only one playoff spot, the difference might come through strength of schedule. Jacksonville faces the 13th-easiest slate of opponents, while Houston comes in at fourth. That’s not a huge gap, but in a close heat between two teams, it might be enough to push the South back to the Jags.

A Super Bowl LIX pick

And just for fun, I’ll throw in a Super Bowl selection. The good news is we’re riding a winning streak here, as the Chiefs have been my pick in each of the past two seasons. The bad news is my pick to oppose them in Super Bowl LVIII was the Cowboys, and that didn’t work out so well.

As you might suspect, if I think the Chiefs are capable of winning 15-plus games during the regular season, I have high hopes for their playoff chances, too. I have them coming out of the AFC. The NFC is a tougher ballot, but it’s hard for me to ignore what I saw out of the Packers during the second half of last season. Given their youth and talent throughout the roster, I have them toppling the Lions and finally overcoming the 49ers in the postseason to advance to the Super Bowl.

When the Packers get there, though? I can’t start picking against Kansas City now. Three-peats are unprecedented, but so is Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs 34, Packers 20.

BROADCAST NEWS

From 1 (Mahomes) to 32 (Brissett), Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com ranks the NFL’s starting QBs as the season begins:

1  Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs QB

Mr. Inevitable, Mahomes might already be a Hall of Fame lock going into his seventh season as a starter. There’s nothing he can’t do as the centerpiece of the NFL’s current dynasty, be it acrobatic tosses, sneaky scrambles or methodical drives when it matters most. He reigns supreme.

2 Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills QB

His deep-playoff resume doesn’t match that of Mahomes, and that’s partly because Allen plays an even riskier game, leaning all the way into his supersized frame and arm talent as a no-brakes gunslinger. It’s also why he’s primed to elevate the Bills’ totally remade wide receiver corps.

3  Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens QB

If there’s one quarterback whose sheer athleticism guarantees he’s never out of a play, it’s probably Jackson, whose two NFL MVP honors confirm his game-breaking gifts. The question with No. 8 is really just durability; if he can stay on the field, he’s a lock for the weekly highlight reel.

4   Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals QB

It’s been close to two years since Burrow was truly, fully healthy, and his extensive absence in two of four NFL seasons is a real concern. At full speed, however, he’s been one of the NFL’s smoothest precision passers, especially in critical spots, flashing championship-caliber poise.

5  C.J. Stroud

Houston Texans QB

The weight of expectations may well be Stroud’s biggest hurdle after the Ohio State product burst onto the scene in 2023, vaulting the Texans forward with calm, collected and confident downfield darts. With an even deeper supporting cast, it’s no wonder he’s a popular MVP pick at just 22.

6  Brock Purdy

San Francisco 49ers QB

After back-to-back NFC Championship appearances, Purdy still feels underrated. Yes, he enjoys a luxurious setup under Kyle Shanahan. He’s also been far more efficient and explosive as an off-schedule point guard than Shanahan’s previous figureheads. To the critics: What more can he do?

7  Jalen Hurts

Philadelphia Eagles QB

This is Hurts’ fourth year as a starter, and it feels like a crossroads: He’s had MVP-level highs as a punishing runner and big-play thrower, even sniffing a Super Bowl title. A revamped staff and all-star weaponry could be key to rebounding from a more mercurial and sluggish 2023 campaign.

8   Dak Prescott

Dallas Cowboys QB

The flagbearer for accomplished quarterbacks without a defining big-game resume, Prescott is quietly mirroring Kirk Cousins as a sharp pocket passer destined for a major payday amid his own team’s hesitance to commit long term. When he’s on, aided by Dallas’ playmakers, he’s legit.

9  Jordan Love

Green Bay Packers QB

Crowned the next face of the Packers, continuing a tradition started and maintained by Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, Love had a Mahomes-esque flair to his zippy passes by the end of his first full year as the starter. Now comes the challenge: Refining his live-wire arm in a young offense.

10  Matthew Stafford

Los Angeles Rams QB

The 2021 Super Bowl champion has been mostly healthy for two of his three seasons in Los Angeles, and both times, Sean McVay’s offense has flourished. At 36, then, the key is whether he’s protected. When upright, he’s got the arm strength and seasoned vision to feed his top targets.

11  Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers QB

After four years of impressive numbers but middling results, Herbert’s prototypical pocket-passing skills will have a new shepherd in the blue-collar Jim Harbaugh, whose anticipated prioritization of the ground game should help balance things out in L.A. How soon the wins follow is up for debate.

12  Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets QB

Returning from an Achilles injury that robbed him of all but four snaps in his anticipated Jets debut, Rodgers is a beautiful mystery, as he might say. At 40, years removed from elite play, what can we expect? It’s still hard to deny his track record of pinpoint accuracy, coupled with New York’s talent.

13  Jared Goff

Detroit Lions QB

Not long ago, Goff was written off as a throwaway trade chip. He’s since revived his image as the resilient figurehead of a loaded Lions offense. Can he finally get over the ultimate hump, too?

14  Tua Tagovailoa

Miami Dolphins QB

The Dolphins are now paying him top-five money, which isn’t surprising considering his seismic leap in confidence and downfield touch under Mike McDaniel. When he’s on the mark, video-game production ensues. Still, he’s out to prove he can also win off-script against true contenders.

15  Kirk Cousins

Atlanta Falcons QB

The definition of serviceable, Cousins is now 36 and coming off injury, still in search of a defining late-year run. But he’s a borderline top-10 play-action zinger when well-protected. If the Falcons outfit him with good run and defensive support, he could help shift the NFC South race.

16 Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars QB

Like Tagovailoa, Lawrence is also looking to prove his first-round talents can be properly cultivated under big-money expectations. He’s already flashed the energy and passing acumen of a former No. 1 pick, but he’s also been streaky as a decision-maker amid bruises and personnel shifts.

17 Kyler Murray

Arizona Cardinals QB

The former No. 1 pick showed some of his trademark elusiveness after returning from an ACL tear late in 2023. Entering Year 6, however, the time is now for a more decisive stretch through the air.

18  Caleb Williams

Chicago Bears QB

A much-improved Bears offense should help ease the No. 1 pick into NFL speed. Williams already projects pro confidence, though, and he’s got a killer arm to pair with effortless mobility.

19 Geno Smith

Seattle Seahawks QB

Durability is something to monitor after he endured some bumps behind a still-iffy line in 2023, but Smith has shown since the start of his Seattle revival he’s got underrated crunch-time pizzazz.

20 Jayden Daniels

Washington Commanders QB

Whereas Caleb Williams projects as a fireworks show, Daniels could be more of a tempo-based distributor for Washington, though he’s also got the straight-line speed to make defenses pay.

21  Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB

Rewarded for his scrappy return to relevance in Tampa Bay, Mayfield embodies the Buccaneers under Todd Bowles: not particularly or consistently pretty, but never one to shy away from a fight.

22 Russell Wilson

Pittsburgh Steelers QB

Once the standard-setter for dual threats leaguewide, Wilson is trying to salvage his legacy at 35. His leadership is a match for Mike Tomlin. Can he squeeze some juice out of his arm/legs, too?

23  Deshaun Watson

Cleveland Browns QB

Physically speaking, Watson still has some of the dynamism that propelled him to Texans stardom. It just hasn’t been seen with any regularity for years, and the Browns’ bruised setup may not help.

24 Will Levis

Tennessee Titans QB

The Titans prioritized all kinds of veteran additions to give Levis a real audition for the top job. He’s got Josh Allen-like spunk as a wrecking ball type. The question is, can he also exhibit control?

25  Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts QB

Not dissimilar to his AFC South-mate Levis, Richardson looks the part with a huge frame, quick feet and laser arm. Barely healthy for four games as a rookie, though, he remains a total projection.

26  Derek Carr

New Orleans Saints QB

Carr’s long resume of gutsy work for oft-middling teams deserves better. He’s a respected leader. But is the upside there at 33? Like the Saints, he’s been synonymous with wild-card flirtations.

27  Bryce Young

Carolina Panthers QB

Young’s unprecedently small size made him an easy target amid a rookie year plagued by poor protection and slow reads. New coach Dave Canales should help the former No. 1 pick gain steam.

28  Sam Darnold

Minnesota Vikings QB

Minnesota’s infrastructure should give the journeyman the best shot at a real QB1 gig he’s ever had. And he can sling it. But can he sustain it? Injuries or forced throws have sidelined him before.

29   Bo Nix

Denver Broncos QB

Sean Payton might not be bluffing about the Oregon product’s NFL-readiness as a rookie. He looked spry and sharp in the preseason. Translating that against real defenses is another story.

30  Daniel Jones

New York Giants QB

It’s arguable that Jones has never enjoyed a fully formed supporting cast in New York. Still, durability and ball control have been steady issues. Can Malik Nabers help him back on track?

31  Gardner Minshew

Las Vegas Raiders QB

He’s certainly got a bit more razzle-dazzle than Aidan O’Connell, his chief offseason competition. Minshew has proven before he’s best-suited as a relief pitcher, though, due to his erratic arm.

32  Jacoby Brissett

New England Patriots QB

He’s a trooper for his career as a willing placeholder. But it’s only inevitable that the more mobile Drake Maye, the Patriots’ big investment under center, will eventually warrant the team’s support.

We don’t disagree with much on the list, we might not be as high on JALEN HURTS after last year as Benjamin.

But we are struck by how much closer the line is between say 9 and 20 than it used to be.  We’d take our chances with GENO SMITH or BAKER MAYFIELD if we had to.  And who knows how high rookies CALEB WILLIAMS and JAYDEN DANIELS can climb, like C.J. STROUD did last year.

BROADCAST NEWS – BRADY’S PREPARATIONS

Andrew Marchand of The Athletic looks at Tom Brady’s preparations for Sunday’s FOX debut:

When Tom Brady took his gap season between his final NFL game in early 2023 and his debut as Fox Sports’ $375 million analyst this Sunday, he studied NFL broadcasts like he was trying to figure out a defense as a quarterback.

Known for his meticulousness, Brady would not only study fellow lead analysts, such as CBS’ Tony Romo, ESPN’s Troy Aikman and NBC’s Cris Collinsworth, to see how they did the job, but also in conversations with Fox Sports executive producer Brad Zager, play-by-play partner Kevin Burkhardt, and the network’s No. 1 game producer, Richie Zyontz, Brady would inquire about how much producers talk in your earpiece during a game or what a director does. He also made a point of going around each room to try to learn each person on the crew’s names.

“I’m the rookie,” Brady told one of his new colleagues. “I want to be a good teammate.”

With Brady — the seven-time Super Bowl champion quarterback widely considered the greatest player in the history of the game and now in possession of the most lucrative known sports commentator contract of all time — Fox Sports has tried to publicly temper expectations for what is probably the most anticipated TV game analyst debut in history.

Fox declined to comment or make Brady available for this article. Brady did appear on Colin Cowherd’s FS1 show, “The Herd,” Monday, where he mostly focused on talking about football. It is all in an overriding effort to make Sunday and beyond as comfortable as possible for Brady, who, by all accounts, is excited to start.

“It can’t get here soon enough,” Brady told Cowherd of his broadcast debut.

The Athletic spoke to sources briefed on Brady’s preparations to piece together what the New England Patriots legend has done to be ready for his broadcasting debut. The journey began nearly two-and-a-half years ago, when Fox’s Lachlan Murdoch announced the signing in May 2022, with the astronomical finances reported shortly after.

The ensuing season, Brady’s last as a player, he and Fox Sports executives agreed he should go try to win a Super Bowl, as they were slated to produce it. Communication was limited as he finished playing, but the hope was to meet up at the Super Bowl, which Brady had won two seasons prior with his new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Brady didn’t make it to the big game, but the man he is replacing, Greg Olsen, did, earning strong reviews with Burkhardt on the Fox telecast. Before that Super Bowl, Fox let it be known Brady would take a year off between playing and broadcasting. When he was done as a quarterback, the real preparations began and will culminate with Sunday’s game between the Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns.

At 47, Brady will again be a main focus as his rookie NFL analyst season will end with him standing next to Burkhardt to call the Super Bowl on Feb. 9 in New Orleans.

The location of the big game provides perfect symmetry to 22 years ago when Brady won his first Super Bowl in the Superdome, which happened to be the final broadcast for Fox’s legendary team of Pat Summerall and John Madden.

Brady has been open about how he has reached out to Romo, Collinsworth, Aikman and seemingly every broadcaster in the business. But come Sunday, the advice that top Fox Sports producers have drilled into his head is: “Be you!”

While Fox is attempting to lighten the expectations by pulling back most official media coverage, it will be all-in this weekend. On Saturday, for his alma mater Michigan’s game vs. Texas, Brady will voice the tease for the Fox broadcast and then appear at halftime, according to sources briefed on the network’s plans.

Brady played his last game on Jan. 16, 2023, completing 35 of 66 passes against the Cowboys for 351 yards in a 31-14 wild-card loss. He would announce his retirement shortly after and took his “gap year” before entering the booth.

The seemingly jet-setting Brady has been at Fox Sports on multiple occasions, working off monitors and calling old games. In May, he rehearsed in Detroit by calling the Michigan Panthers vs. Memphis Showboats game with Burkhardt.

“He’s a grinder,” one new colleague labeled him.

Brady has called two-and-a-half live NFL games. In early August, he did a half of a preseason game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks on Saturday, then did the full L.A. Rams-Cowboys game the next game. And then, his last rehearsal was toward the end of August in a game between the San Francisco 49ers and Las Vegas Raiders. He made his first broadcasting apperance during the network’s UFL coverage earlier this summer.

Over the last eight months, before these live rehearsals, Brady went into overdrive. In January, in Miami, where he has a home, he observed NBC’s production by standing next to Collinsworth and play-by-play announcer Mike Tirico in the booth and going into the truck with their lead producer, Rob Hyland. Besides the convenience of the location, the reason Brady observed the NBC crew rather than Fox’s was in part out of deference to Olsen, who is being moved to the No. 2 team with Brady’s arrival.

Fox and Brady have tried to create the equivalent pocket for him to succeed. Last April, he was the center of attention at a luxurious retreat with his top Fox teammates. There have been dinners that have caught the attention of the New York Post’s Page Six and TMZ, which had Zager’s picture next to Brady splashed all over the internet.

These are just part of the many outings that Fox personnel have held with Brady in an effort to make Sunday seamless. Those who have been around him can not get over the star power that surrounds him, which is saying a lot when you consider the likes of Derek Jeter, David Ortiz and Terry Bradshaw are on Fox Sports’ big-name roster.

During this preseason, when Brady has been on the field, he is immediately the center of attention with players, like the Cowboys’ Micah Parsons, finding their way to see Brady and, in one instance, even asking Burkhardt to use their phones to take pictures.

Meanwhile, with Brady’s limited partner ownership with the Raiders pending, the NFL has ruled that he can’t participate in team production meetings, as ESPN first reported.

This decision will likely disappoint coaches and players more than truly impact Brady’s performance. (Brady isn’t barred from talking to any coaches or players on the phone, and Burkhardt, Erin Andrews and Tom Rinaldi will be able to relay information. Fox seems very unconcerned about it.)

Through all the practice, what will likely make or break how Brady does is his timing, which may be the hardest aspect for new broadcasters to learn. The gap year was Brady’s choice, but likely a good one for his development.

Players who accomplish what Brady did don’t grow up dreaming about being in the broadcast booth to call a Super Bowl. They fantasize about winning as the quarterback. As a result, they don’t study the mechanics of what it takes to be good as a commentator. Brady, sources indicate, has been meticulous about understanding the process.

“I’ve never been around someone as curious about how everything works,” a Fox Sports colleague said.

There is no doubt that Brady will see the game at that Peyton Manning level, with the same perfection in noticing details. Brady doesn’t need to be overly critical, though he did say on his SiriusXM podcast that he wants to mirror longtime acerbic golf analyst Johnny Miller. He may make headlines, even if it isn’t intentional, just because of who he is.

What Brady has tried to learn, and what he figures to improve upon as he takes more reps throughout the season, is the timing during the game. There is a finite amount of seconds to speak between plays. What the average fan needs to understand is different from what a quarterback trying to win each down needs to know.

To use quarterbacking parlance, Brady has worked to make his progressions quick, while displaying personality. He has learned the mechanics, focusing on making one point instead of several at a time.

He’s spoken to many and, even though he clearly agreed to join Fox because of the unprecedented offer, the rookie appears to be all-in, calling his new partners at random times to talk for an hour about how to improve and, then, during practices, being receptive to real-time coaching. The sources briefed on Brady’s practices seem to believe he is prepared and ready to display his passion for the game in a way that hasn’t been fully seen before.

“He’s like a little kid,” one of the sources said. “He’s so excited. He loves the game of football.”