Twenty years ago, two years after retiring from the NFL and then trying during the 2002 season to slip through waivers and join the Raiders, Hall of Fame cornerback Deion Sanders made a pitch to be the head coach of the Falcons.

“I can make them a better team, and I know that, because I know the things that really need to be done there,” Sanders told ESPN.com. “I put so much time into preparing every week for my Sunday job [at CBS], watching tape and talking to players and coaches, that I still live football. It’s still a big part of me. I talk to head coaches and assistants, guys with whom I’m close, every week. I know what the job involves, believe me, and I know I can do it.”

Two decades later, Sanders has proven he can do it. He has become the hottest name in college football. After turning Jackson State around, he landed at Colorado like an asteroid, blowing a gaping hole in the existing order and shaking things up one day at a time.

Deion supposedly doesn’t want to coach in the NFL. He’ll possibly change his mind if/when owners start throwing money at him.

And they should. Watch the video from the locker room before the upset over TCU. Some will say that won’t work on NFL players. Bullshit. I’m 58, and it made me want to run through a wall. (Or at least run into a wall and bounce off of it.)

Compare Deion’s comments to the trailer the Cardinals distributed with new coach Jonathan Gannon talking to a roomful of disinterested players. One of the most important duties of any NFL coach is to command a room of grown ass men. Deion can do it. Gannon, frankly and with all due respect, cannot.

Someone needs to pursue Deion in the next hiring cycle. The team that gets him would instantly become the hippest and hottest and most attractive destination in the entire NFL. And Deion would be worth every penny he makes, and then some.

I believe. You should believe, too. Because Deion believes — and he knows how to make others believe in themselves. In a league where the margins are wafer thin, that belief can be all the difference on game day.

We’re not sure one clip is fair to Gannon – we’ve heard him in another context and found him motivating.  And Florio might be a tad overboard on Sanders.  But we do believe that Colorado is heading to big things.

– – –

At ESPN.com, Bill Barnwell “makes the case” for all 32 teams to win Super Bowl 58.  You can read them all here, we will have some of the more improbable below.  He explains here why he conducts this exercise:

Here’s where I have to rely on history. Let’s consider some of the teams that exceeded expectations in recent memory:

The 1999 Rams were coming off a 4-12 season and lost starting quarterback Trent Green to a torn ACL during the preseason. They had the sixth-longest odds of any team to win the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner won MVP, and St. Louis took home the hardware.

The 2001 Patriots had the league’s seventh-longest odds heading into the season, and that was with Drew Bledsoe at quarterback. Bledsoe got hurt in September, unheralded backup Tom Brady took over and a team that had gone 5-11 the previous season upset the Rams to win the first of many Super Bowls.

The 2007 Giants were 15th in preseason Super Bowl odds and spent the summer wondering whether edge rusher Michael Strahan would return to the team. They upset the previously undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl.

The 2017 Eagles were tied for 14th in Super Bowl odds, alongside the Texans (who would go 4-12) and Vikings (5-11). After posing a losing record the prior season, the Eagles rode MVP-caliber play from Carson Wentz to a division title, then Nick Foles to a Super Bowl upset of the Pats.

The 2021 Bengals ranked 29th in ESPN’s Football Power Index’s estimation of Super Bowl chances heading into the season. While they didn’t claim the trophy, they made it far further than anybody expected, winning the AFC before falling just short in Inglewood, California, on the biggest stage.

DETROIT

Colton Pouncy of The Athletic takes a long look at the two men on top of the Lions – GM Brad Holmes and Coach Dan Campbell:

The Lions are the favorites to win their division, something they haven’t done since the NFC North was known as the NFC Central. A team that hasn’t won a playoff game since the 1991 season — when Boyz II Men’s “On Bended Knee” topped the charts — could soon put an end to that drought.

The two men overseeing this new era of Lions football had never met one another before they were hired, introduced via text message just weeks before getting to work.

It begs the question: How exactly did the Lions make this work?

(Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn) was an unmitigated disaster.

Patricia alienated his players. He installed a grass hill at the practice facility and made players run it as a form of conditioning. He voiced his displeasure over players swapping jerseys with members of other teams. He banned loud music. Players who celebrated in games received an earful. Eventually, he lost the team.

The Lions fired Patricia and Quinn in 2020 following a 41-25 loss to the Houston Texans on Thanksgiving Day. Patricia was just 13-29-1 in parts of three seasons, a cautionary tale of what can happen when ego and power supersede collaboration and trust.

From this latest failure, the Lions learned they needed a new approach.

“Having gone through the Patricia-Quinn years, I really wanted people who were coming from two different institutions, two different teams, and brought kind of a fresh approach and not just one way of looking at the world,” Lions president Rod Wood said last week. “I think it’s real easy to go to a New England or a Pittsburgh or a Green Bay, teams that have historically been very good, and think, ‘You can replicate that in Detroit.’

“Well, we became Patriots Midwest. And that’s not who we wanted to be. We wanted to be the Detroit Lions. We were looking for people that were going to be our kind of people. And I think I kind of learned that the hard way.”

It would be the first GM/coaching search for Sheila Hamp, who took over as principal owner in June 2020. She leaned on Wood, chief operating officer Mike Disner and former Detroit linebacker Chris Spielman, who was brought on board as a special assistant shortly after Patricia and Quinn were fired.

Typically, a GM is hired first, then leads a search for the head coach. The GM ends up making a final call on a candidate, involved in the process from start to finish. But the Lions went a different direction.

“You’re not going to end up with two guys that work together if you don’t know what you’re looking for,” Wood said. “We really knew what we were looking for in terms of culture and leadership, and we certainly wanted to move away from the culture that we were coming out of.”

It was a comprehensive effort that cast a wide net, unlike the franchise’s previous search. Hamp was involved, kicking off interviews with her assessment of where the franchise was and where she wanted to take it. She wanted a culture of collaboration, a point stressed to every candidate. Then Wood, Disner and Spielman would jump in, creating a conversational environment to get to know each candidate.

Each member of the search committee had a grading sheet comprised of 12 categories and independently ranked candidates on a scale of one to five. When an interview concluded, they would debrief for an hour, then load their scores into a database Disner created. Potential GMs who voiced a need for sole power or a handpicked partner were often dismissed. The Lions were looking for leaders who could adapt and work together for a common goal, open to differing opinions in an effort to steer an egoless ship.

Through their process, they believe they found just that in Holmes and Campbell.

“People can BS you to a point, but then you could tell — this person is really not our kind of person or they’re not going to buy into this kind of structure,” Wood said. “Those two guys not only bought into it, they were embracing it.”

Holmes is a former HBCU football player and journalism major who parlayed a PR internship with the Rams into a job with the club’s scouting department. Promotions ensued. Area scout. National scout. Director of college scouting. This was important, considering the Lions wanted to build through the draft. Holmes’ eye for talent, paired with his communications skills, ultimately put him on Detroit’s radar.

“Of all the guys that we interviewed, Brad really stood out in terms of the draft process,” Wood said. “And we knew that was going to be our path to getting the team rebuilt.”

Some of the Lions’ GM interviews lasted two or three hours. Holmes’? A mere 90 minutes. The poise, clarity, vision and confidence to make things work no matter the circumstance — it was exactly what the Lions were looking for. Five minutes into Holmes’ interview, Wood reached for his pen and wrote four words in the top corner of his notes.

“This is the guy.”

At the same time, the Lions were far along with coaching candidates, including New Orleans Saints tight ends coach Dan Campbell.

The Lions were familiar with Campbell, who made a lasting impression as a player for 10 seasons — three with Detroit. Campbell saw the struggles of the organization firsthand, playing for Detroit’s infamous 0-16 team in 2008. Upon retirement, Campbell rose through the ranks as a coach, including a stint as the Miami Dolphins’ interim head coach for 12 games in 2015. He’d interviewed for several jobs. But there were several conversations taking place behind the scenes to determine whether he’d be a fit as Detroit’s head coach.

One of those was between Spielman and former Saints head coach Sean Payton. Spielman called plenty of Saints games over the years while working as a television analyst and was able to see Campbell in practice. He quickly noticed the presence Campbell had in front of players. He had their respect.

Of course, that was just Spielman’s opinion. So he called Payton, Campbell’s boss.

“Sean, it’s Chris Spielman. Tell me about Dan Campbell.”

Thirty-two minutes later, Spielman was able to get in his next word: “Thanks.”

He heard everything he needed to hear.

As Detroit’s collective searches reached their finish lines, Wood introduced Campbell and Holmes to one another via text. The Lions had their guys, hailing from different NFL backgrounds and chosen simultaneously through a thorough, detailed process of elimination.

“We knew that not only were they going to be great for the program in culture, but they were going to bring people with the same mindset that have an egoless point of attack for building a team,” Spielman said. “That’s been proven.”

The Lions named Holmes their new GM on Jan. 14, 2021. Less than a week later, Campbell was named their new head coach.

Detroit’s vision for the future was very much collaborative, starting at the top. There was an understanding that the effort would take time, and time would be afforded. They would pick and choose spots to spend when it made sense but build through the draft, with Holmes’ eye for talent leading the way.

The Lions withheld quarterback Matthew Stafford’s trade request from GM candidates until a hire was made. When informed, Holmes was unfazed. He’d either have a QB at his disposal or the draft capital to build a roster around a new one. After having discussions with Stafford, Holmes ultimately traded him to the Rams. In return, the Lions received quarterback Jared Goff, a player Holmes helped the Rams draft No. 1 overall in 2016, plus a bevy of picks that would jumpstart Detroit’s rebuild.

Those who’ve worked with Holmes say he has a great “bullsh– detector,” an ability to cut through the noise and learn how a player is truly wired. He values the opinions of those around him, listening and gathering as much info as possible before making a final call — in tandem with Campbell and others.

“I knew right away that he could evaluate and that gave me great confidence. That’s all I needed to know,” said Lance Newmark, the Lions’ senior director of player personnel who’s entering his 26th season with the organization. “That’s such an underrated part of it. And you think, ‘Oh, that’s an automatic,’ but it’s not.”

The Lions were on the clock with the seventh selection in the 2021 draft, the first pick of Holmes’ tenure. Sitting there on the board was Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell. Holmes and the Lions phoned in the pick so quickly the league told him to take more time in the future. He did it again the following year.

It’s that genuine passion that appeals to so many in the organization. Players included.

“There are clips that I see online of that pick when it happened,” Sewell said. “To see him react like that to pick me, I was like, ‘Oh, it’s on.’ If he asked me to go swim 200 miles, I’d swim 200 miles. I’d go as far as he wants me to go.”

Newmark raves about Campbell’s involvement in the scouting process. The coach never blows off a meeting, values the input of those underneath him in the organization and has a unique ability to make everyone feel at ease in a high-stress environment.

He’s the same way with a coaching staff comprised of former players you’ve probably heard of. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Quarterbacks coach Mark Brunell. Wide receivers coach Antwaan Randle El. Cornerbacks coach Dre Bly. Campbell claims that playing experience is not a prerequisite to landing a job on his staff. He simply wanted assistants with a vast knowledge of the game who were comfortable in their skin.

Take linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard. Known for his free-flowing dreadlocks during his NFL playing days, Sheppard eyed a transition to coaching upon retirement. But there aren’t many coaches who look like him, and Sheppard was worried his appearance might negatively impact how those with hiring power viewed him.

So in 2019, he called Campbell — someone he grew close with during their time together with the Dolphins — for some advice. Should he cut his hair to further his coaching career? “Are you crazy?” Campbell said. “If anybody’s hiring you, they’re hiring you because of you. You got those calls because of who you are, not because of somebody you’re trying to become.”

Campbell’s philosophy boils down to this: If players can’t be themselves, the Lions will never get the most out of them. That’s true for his coaches, too.

“I can be myself here,” Sheppard said. “That’s a secure feeling. To be able to be yourself, in a safe space, doing something you love to do — it’s why I’m blessed, man.”

Culture only means so much if wins never follow, and the early days in Detroit were tough for Campbell and Holmes. The Lions were winless in their first 11 games of 2021 and ultimately finished 3-13-1.

There was hope for more in Year 2. Detroit continued to build through the draft, led by homegrown defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, whom they took at No. 2. The on-field product was better, but early on, the results were more of the same. The Lions limped to a 1-6 start.

Was Campbell the right man for the job? Was Holmes doing enough to provide the team with talent? As speculation grew, Hamp spoke to local media in late October to put rumors to rest. “What I really have is confidence in the process we went through in the first place when we hired Brad and Dan,” Hamp said. “It was extremely thorough, and we really believe we’ve come up with the right people.”

Behind the scenes, confidence in what the Lions were building never wavered. The internal belief was that this was a young team still finding its way, learning how to win. It was only a matter of time.

“I’ve been in team meetings when you could tell the team has kind of checked out on the coaching staff, and that wasn’t the case here,” Wood said. “The team was 100 percent together, 100 percent behind the head coach.”

“The film was talking to me: It’s coming. I know it’s hard to believe, but it’s coming,” Spielman said. “You could see it.”

The Lions would go on to win seven of their next nine games, taking down three playoff teams along the way. Detroit found itself in the hunt — an unthinkable position just months prior.

The late-season run set up a meaningful regular-season finale against the Packers at Lambeau Field, a game that was flexed to “Sunday Night Football.” It was Detroit’s first and only prime-time game of the season, a chance to show the NFL what it had been building and potentially punch a ticket to the postseason. But it was a little too late. The Lions’ fate was decided minutes before kickoff, as the Seahawks’ Week 18 win over the Rams eliminated Detroit from playoff contention.

Nothing to play for? Not quite.

In dramatic fashion, the Lions beat the Packers 20-16 in what proved to be Aaron Rodgers’ final game in Green Bay, perhaps marking the beginning of a new era in the NFC North. Detroit went 5-1 in the division and finished 9-8 for its first winning season since 2017. All while fielding the NFL’s second-youngest roster.

Playoffs or not, the Lions were going to end on a high note.

“I think anybody that expected anything different doesn’t know the Detroit Lions,” left tackle Taylor Decker said in the locker room. “I think it’s that simple.”

There’s a palpable buzz around Allen Park these days. Holmes and Campbell have a running bit, wearing shirts with photos of one another at their news conferences. National media came to town in droves this summer hoping for a peek behind the curtain of one of the NFL’s most fascinating teams.

The Lions are the favorites to win the NFC North after laying the foundation. They addressed defensive holes in the offseason, adding safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and cornerbacks Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley via free agency and Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell with one of their two first-round draft picks.

Fresh off a top-5 scoring season, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson withdrew from head coaching consideration elsewhere to stay in Detroit. Goff is coming off a Pro Bowl campaign. Amon-Ra St. Brown, a 2021 fourth-round pick, is a budding star who had 1,161 receiving yards in 16 games last year. Jahmyr Gibbs, the other 2023 first-round pick, will pair with free-agent acquisition David Montgomery at running back, working behind one of the league’s best offensive lines.

In the process of this rebuild, the Lions have reinvigorated a fan base that never left — patiently waiting for a winner.

“I’d never been to Detroit, never really pictured myself playing for the Lions growing up, but it’s just cool now to see where it’s at and the national attention that we’re getting,” linebacker Alex Anzalone said. “If I were a kid now, my perception would be way different than what’s been in decades past.”

This team didn’t arrive overnight. It took patience aplenty. But Holmes and Campbell can look back now, together, with the full belief that they’re better off for approaching things the way they did.

“I do think that we — let’s call it ‘took our medicine,’ in the past couple of years,” Holmes said last week. “Me and Dan talk about it all the time. We’ve coached the Senior Bowl. We’ve had to do ‘Hard Knocks.’ We’ve done all that. We’ve gone through a lot of darkness to get to this point, but that’s where the grit comes, in terms of just not really wavering or putting your head down or getting discouraged.”

“You have this vision of where you want to go, where you see it going and what it’s going to take to get there,” Campbell said. “You don’t always know the timeline, but you know you’ve got a lot of work ahead of you. And so, I think we’re both very pleased.

“We’re not acquiring talent, we’re acquiring football players. I feel like we’ve got the most amount of those that we’ve had in three years, which gives me a lot of hope.”

Of course, that’s all any of this is right now — hope. Lions fans have been sold enough of it to last a lifetime. Through two years, this regime’s greatest on-field accomplishment is finishing a game above .500 and barely missing the playoffs. It’s fair to be skeptical, to want to see it before you believe it. After all, these are the Detroit Lions we’re talking about.

But if this works, if the Lions take the next step, if the Lions win their first division title in 30 years, if they win their first playoff game since the 1991 season and maybe more along the way, you’ll know the process, plan and relationship that led to it all.

WASHINGTON

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com on the Commanders chances for Super Bowl glory:

26. Washington Commanders

Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.3%

Chance to make the playoffs: 18.0%

The Commanders were much better than you think on defense last season. They ranked sixth in points per possession allowed, right alongside the Bills and Cowboys. You didn’t notice because the other side of the ball did Jonathan Allen & Co. no favors; Carson Wentz and the offense lost the turnover battle eight times, and the Commanders went 2-6 in those games. With average play on offense, they would have been a playoff team.

With Sam Howell taking over as starting quarterback after an auspicious debut in Week 18, coach Ron Rivera is hoping to get something more than average play on offense. Howell is a 2022 fifth-round pick with one career start, but you can spin his inexperience as high variance. If he actually does exceed expectations, the Commanders have young playmakers around him and a promising new playcaller in Eric Bieniemy.

It’s tough to see Washington rising up the NFC East when it was the only team in the division to miss the playoffs a year ago, but this is the same division that hasn’t had a repeat champion since the Eagles did it with Terrell Owens in 2004. Expect the unexpected in the NFC East, right?

TAMPA BAY

Bill Barnwell’s case for the Buccaneers:

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.2%

Chance to make the playoffs: 15.7%

FPI is sour on the Buccaneers. I’m not exactly optimistic about their chances, but it’s easier to make a case for them succeeding than the algorithm suggests. This team isn’t as deep on defense as it was during the peak of the Tom Brady era, but many of its stars are still around. The Bucs ranked 13th in defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) last season, and that was with Shaq Barrett sidelined (torn left Achilles) and a banged-up secondary. If Tampa Bay can stay healthy on defense, coach Todd Bowles should have all the pieces he needs to produce a top-10 unit on that side of the ball.

The offense? That’s a bigger ask, especially with star center Ryan Jensen out for the season after being placed on injured reserve (left knee). Wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still around, but the Bucs are retooling on the fly along the offensive line and starting over under center. Baker Mayfield won the quarterback battle in camp, and the veteran will have everything to play for as he hopes to secure his future as an NFL starter.

The easiest path for this team to surprise is Mayfield protecting the football, new offensive coordinator Dave Canales bringing a moribund running game back to life and the defense winning them 10 games in a wide-open NFC South. We’ve seen Mayfield get hot for stretches before and play his best football when people count him out. Well, FPI isn’t a person, but the algorithm certainly is not expecting much from him or the Bucs this season.

ARIZONA

Bill Barnwell dreams up a way for the Cardinals to win the Super Bowl (it requires an amazing QB KYLER MURRAY among other things):

32. Arizona Cardinals

Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: Less than 0.1%

Chance to make the playoffs: 4.4%

The Cardinals certainly appear to be tanking after moving on from wideout DeAndre Hopkins, defensive lineman Zach Allen and linebacker/safety Isaiah Simmons this offseason. New coach Jonathan Gannon seems to be confusing his players (and/or football writers) with unsolved riddles. Cardinals fans might pay more attention to potential No. 1 overall pick quarterback Caleb Williams on Saturdays than their NFL team on Sundays this fall. This seems like a “sim to end of season” campaign.

Of course, that idea makes this column so fun. The 2021 Bengals didn’t seem like a Super Bowl contender either, but they sure did by the time we got to December. What would have to happen for the Cardinals to shock the world and actually make the short hop to Las Vegas next February?

Well, the NFC West would have to fall apart. The 49ers would need to be struck by a swath of injuries to their stars on offense, limiting the effectiveness of returning quarterback Brock Purdy. Geno Smith would need to turn into a pumpkin in Seattle, leaving the Seahawks with plenty of playmakers and nobody to toss them the football. And the Rams, who are seemingly reliant on the few stars they have left staying healthy, would need to endure another lost season. If coach Sean McVay is being linked to television jobs in December, it’s good news for Arizona.

I’m not pretending the Cardinals are going to be good, but this is a universe in which they could win the NFC West with seven victories. In that world, they are dismal to start the season, much like the Dolphins were during their tanking season in 2019. They would hit the midway point of the season at 1-7, seemingly set on landing Williams with the top pick next April.

Then, quarterback Kyler Murray, who is starting the season on the physically unable to perform list while recovering from January surgery to repair a torn ACL in his right knee, comes back. Gannon’s defense begins to coalesce and play faster. Suddenly, the schedule gets a lot easier. The Cardinals beat the Falcons and Texans. They top a compromised Rams team, and Murray ekes out an upset over the Steelers. Having won four straight, they hit their bye at 5-7. They win only one of their next three, but a home victory against the Seahawks in Week 18 is enough to claim the tiebreakers and win the division at 7-10.

Could the Cardinals beat the rest of the NFC in a race to the Super Bowl? We’ve seen Murray look like an MVP candidate before for stretches. They would get at least one home game and maybe a second if the top two seeds get upset in the divisional round. Everything would need to break their way, but that goes without saying in a universe in which Arizona converts a 0.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl into a trip to Vegas.

KANSAS CITY

A scare (perhaps) with the knee of TE TRAVIS KELCE.

After tests Tuesday, the Kansas City Chiefs believe All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce’s ACL is intact, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

Kelce has inflammation in his knee and the Chiefs will test it again Wednesday to determine his availability for the NFL’s season opener Thursday night against the Detroit Lions, the source said.

Kelce’s brother, Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelce, told WIP on Wednesday morning that the two spoke Tuesday.

“He’s got some swelling going on,” Jason Kelce said. “From what we know right now, his knee is fine. It’s about getting that swelling down and [seeing] how bruised that bone is.”

Chiefs coach Andy Reid had said Kelce suffered a hyperextended knee during Tuesday’s practice.

“The next guy steps in and we roll,” Reid said when asked how the game plan might change without Kelce. “That’s what you do if [he doesn’t play].”

Wide receiver Skyy Moore said he was running a route on the play when Kelce was injured.

“He was limping when I saw him, like, just walking off the field,” said Moore, who added that Kelce left the practice field without any help. “It was a good sign to see him get up by himself and get off the field.”

As for what the offense might look like against the Lions if Kelce can’t play, Moore said, “It’ll be a little bit different. … Everybody will be able to fill in the gaps. Obviously, that’s a Hall of Fame tight end, but we’ll be able to do our job and pull across the finish line.”

The Chiefs have two other tight ends on their active roster, Noah Gray and Blake Bell. Gray caught 28 passes with a touchdown last season. Bell missed most of the year with a hip flexor injury but has 60 catches with one touchdown in eight NFL seasons with five teams.

“He’s one of the toughest, and we can’t wait for him to get back out there,” Bell said of Kelce. “We’re just going to keep doing what we do, and the rest of the guys in the room will be ready to roll.”

The Chiefs also have two tight ends on their practice squad, and one, Matt Bushman, was with the Chiefs in training camp. Bushman said he received a few snaps with the starting group after Kelce’s injury, something that normally wouldn’t happen if he wasn’t going to play in the upcoming game.

Reid also said Tuesday that there has been “no progress” in talks with holdout defensive tackle Chris Jones, who is seeking a new contract.

“We’re focused on the guys that are here, getting ready to play the Lions, and that’s where I’m at. If you’re not there, you’re not there, that’s the name of this game,” Reid said.

Kelce, who has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in seven consecutive seasons, has not missed a game to injury since his rookie season in 2013, when he underwent a microfracture procedure on his knee. The 33-year-old has missed only three games since 2014: twice resting in the final week of the season, in 2017 and 2020, and missing a Week 16 game in 2021 because of COVID-19.

The point spread on Thursday night’s game moved after the news of Kelce’s injury, with Kansas City dropping from -6.5 to -5 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Mike Florio on how rare it is for Kelce to be out:

The Chiefs might not have tight end Travis Kelce, due to a knee injury that he suffered on Tuesday. If so, it will be the first game Kelce misses due to injury in nearly a decade.

Kelce had a knee problem as a rookie in 2013. It started as a bone bruise and ended in a microfracture procedure that limited him to one snap of one game.

Since 2014, however, Kelce has missed only three games. Twice, he was rested in meaningless Week 17 contests. In December 2021, Kelce missed a game against the Steelers because he had landed on the COVID list.

Not having Kelce changes the Kansas City offense. It also adjusts the manner in which the Lions will defend the Chiefs. If/when Kelce is ruled out for Thursday night, I’ll take a look at what the Chiefs might do without him, and how the Lions might approach a Kelce-less Kansas City offense.

HOUSTON

Give it credit, Bill Barnwell’s path for the Texans to win the AFC seems more plausible than Arizona’s:

31. Houston Texans

Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.1%

Chance to make the playoffs: 15%

We’ve seen rookie quarterbacks transform a team that was in the doldrums before. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin sparked division titles in their first seasons with the Colts and Commanders in 2012, respectively. That’s a high bar for C.J. Stroud to hit, but this is an organization that played with Davis Mills, Kyle Allen and Jeff Driskel in 2022. If Stroud is merely a good signal-caller from Week 1, that’s a significant upgrade for the Texans at the most important position in football.

The second most important position might be coach, and the Texans have to feel good about landing former linebacker DeMeco Ryans to take over. Ryans will hope to rebuild a defense that has struggled despite relying more heavily on veterans than the typical struggling team over the past two seasons. He doesn’t have all the pieces that helped the 49ers thrive, but he does have a potential star pass-rusher in Will Anderson Jr. and young playmakers in the secondary in Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr.

It’s not difficult to imagine the Texans being better than people expect. They have a solid offensive line with a great left tackle, although that line is struggling with injuries at the moment. The secondary is exciting. Running back Dameon Pierce looked promising as a rookie last season, Stroud will get two promising new playmakers in tight end Dalton Schultz and 2022 second-round wideout John Metchie, who is back after battling leukemia. Like the Cardinals, this won’t come together quickly, but it might be a fully formed unit by the end of the season.

The AFC is the tougher conference, but the path to a division title is easier for Houston than it would be for Arizona. The Jaguars would likely need to lose quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a hair care accident. The Titans are in transition and have major question marks at multiple positions. The Colts can’t get out of their own way and are rebuilding alongside Houston.

It’s tough to envision a world in which the Texans can beat the Bengals, Bills and Chiefs in a postseason run, but Cincinnati did it from No. 29 two years ago when their quarterback went supernova. What if that happens in Houston?

INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts to the Super Bowl?  Bill Barnwell:

30. Indianapolis Colts

Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.1%

Chance to make the playoffs: 17.1%

In what might be the most stacked conference of the past decade, 14 of the 16 teams in the AFC can credibly expect to compete for a playoff berth. The two exceptions are the Texans and Colts, both of whom will start rookie quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson is exciting, but he’s a wildly inexperienced signal-caller who won’t have the benefit of playing with star running back Jonathan Taylor for the first month of the season, if ever.

The path for the Colts to exceed all expectations involves a run-heavy attack with Richardson at the forefront. At 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, he’s a special talent, and coach Shane Steichen will have him in an offense designed to minimize his weaknesses. Maybe Indianapolis looks feisty in the first month and general manager Chris Ballard distracts team owner Jim Irsay with a guitar and signs Taylor to a new contract. A defense that sorely missed the injured Shaq Leonard for most of last season gets a boost from adding back the three-time All-Pro.

Unless Richardson is a prodigy, the Colts aren’t making a deep playoff run. But winning the AFC South? It would take the Jaguars and Titans greatly coming up short of expectations, but stranger things have happened. Remember how quickly Jalen Hurts developed in Philadelphia? If Richardson improves as fast, Indy could make major strides. And if that happens, Steichen should be a Coach of the Year candidate, even if his team doesn’t win the South.

JACKSONVILLE

The Jaguars have captains for 2023 and they are not the same as last year.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Jaguars pass rusher Josh Allen had been one of the team’s captains each of the last three seasons.

Now? Not.

The Jaguars announced five captains for the 2023 season, and Allen is not one of them. Allen is heading into the final year of his contract and was the Jaguars’ only player who did not attend voluntary Organized Team Activities, and less time around the team may have made him less of a leader this year.

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a captain, as he has been for each of his three NFL seasons. He’s joined on offense by right guard Brandon Scherff for the second straight season. The defensive captains are lineman Roy Robertson-Harris and linebacker Foyesade Oluokun. Safety Andrew Wingard is the special teams captain.

The Jaguars’ captains are chosen by a vote of the players. Jaguars coach Doug Pederson will choose a sixth captain each week.

NEW ENGLAND

The news flash here is that a Bill Belichick team is pegged as the 25th-best in the NFL.  Bill Barnwell on how they can rise above:

25. New England Patriots

Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.4%

Chance to make the playoffs: 19.1%

The Patriots lining up with the Commanders is fortuitous, since they’re in similar situations. Like the Commanders, the Patriots fielded one of the league’s best defenses last season. Like the Commanders, the Patriots failed to make it to the postseason because they turned the ball over inside the 5-yard line to cost themselves a key victory and were generally a mess on offense throughout the season. And like the Commanders, the Patriots made changes to fix the offense this spring, namely by hiring former Texans coach Bill O’Brien to serve as offensive coordinator.

If O’Brien gets quarterback Mac Jones back on track, the Patriots should be a playoff team. Remember, in 2021 they were 10-7 with the point differential of a 12.4-win team during Jones’ rookie season, when he looked to be on track to become a star.

New England will have to overcome a stacked AFC East, but each of the teams in its division has problems. The Jets are relying on a 39-year-old quarterback and the guy who just sank Russell Wilson as his playcaller. The Dolphins have already lost cornerback Jalen Ramsey and have major questions about quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s ability to stay healthy for 17 games. The Bills are relying on veterans coming off injuries to keep the defense afloat. As for the playoffs, well, Belichick’s track record as a designer speaks for itself.

THIS AND THAT

MORE PREDICTIONS

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com has a secret panel of NFL insiders and they made predictions on the NFL individual awards for 2023:

We asked league execs and scouts to sort out which stars will shine brightest in 2023. Who will win the game’s top awards at season’s end. Why wait until Feb. 11 — when the NFL’s first Las Vegas Super Bowl is upon us — to know? From MVP to Rookies of the Year, finding a consensus from the league was tough. Finding a surprise was not.

Most Valuable Player: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

We could set the default answer to Patrick Mahomes every year with little complaint. Several execs said the same line on Mahomes: “He’s on another level.” And he is.

But Burrow has gained traction as the league’s second-best quarterback in the eyes of many. And he has made steady progress on the award circuit, earning Comeback Player of the Year in 2021 and finishing fourth in the MVP voting last season. He has thrown a combined 69 touchdowns the past two seasons. And he might have the best receiver tandem in the league with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

“He’s in the fourth year in [Zac Taylor’s] system, he’s had [most of] the same receivers for all four of those years, same coaches, same offensive line for the most part,” an AFC exec said. “He’s refined. It’s another level of advancement that comes each year. I thought he was playing as good as Mahomes late last year.”

What helps Mahomes’ case: Expect the Chiefs to win some shootouts early in the year should Chris Jones continue his holdout.

Also creating buzz: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Josh Allen (Bills), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)

Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Too many good candidates here. Executives selected Justin Jefferson last year and he won thanks to a historic third NFL season. This year, the pick is McCaffrey, who now gets a full season in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

McCaffrey averaged nearly one touchdown per game in 11 games with the 49ers, who acquired him from Carolina before the trade deadline.

“He didn’t get to San Francisco until late October last year — he should be way more in tune with the offense early,” an AFC exec said. “1.5K rushing yards and 100 catches should be relatively easy for him.”

Last season, McCaffrey hit nearly 1,900 total yards (741 receiving) while spread over two different offenses.

“He’s the perfect weapon for a quarterback like Brock Purdy,” an NFC personnel official said.

Also creating buzz: Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Justin Jefferson (Vikings), Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers; Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns

In predictable fashion, the top four edge rushers from our summer rankings earned votes.

Garrett and Watt were essentially dead even, so we went with both. The argument for Garrett is simple: He has been knocking on the door for a while with back-to-back 16-sack seasons.

“He’s a great player who hasn’t really had his signature moment yet, and this might be the year,” an NFL scouting official said. “He’s going to have more help around him, which should allow him to get loose more. The defense [under new coordinator Jim Schwartz] will constantly be attacking.”

The Browns added defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson and pass-rusher Za’Darius Smith to the arsenal via free agency and the trade market.

Those who picked Watt see a storm coming after he missed much of last season with a pectoral injury. Watt has averaged 17.3 sacks per year since 2020.

“There’s been a lot of hype around Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons and others and T.J. is going to remember that,” an AFC scout said. “I’m all-in on him having a huge year.”

Also creating buzz: Nick Bosa (49ers), Micah Parsons (Cowboys), Maxx Crosby (Raiders)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

You can’t go wrong with either of the top running backs in the draft, Gibbs or Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson, who is considered the more complete back.

But Gibbs might have the fastest route to instant production, due to his role, big-play ability and supporting cast.

“I think he’ll have an Alvin Kamara-type presence for the Lions with big plays and pass-catching ability,” an NFL personnel director said. “Which will push them over the top. They are a hot team. And he’s a major talent.”

Gibbs wowed in training camp, showing off his speed to outrun linebackers and safeties on passing plays out of the backfield. And as one AFC executive said, “I trust Detroit’s offense a little more than I do [Atlanta’s] at this stage.”

Another trendy name here: Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid, who has been as advertised so far. “He might catch 75 passes this year,” an AFC scout said.

Also creating buzz: Bijan Robinson (Falcons), Dalton Kincaid (Bills), Zay Flowers (Ravens)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jalen Carter, DT, Philadelphia Eagles

Some evaluators agree that Carter was possibly the best singular talent in the 2023 draft. He fell to ninth overall to the Eagles, who add another explosive player to their defensive line.

“If not for character stuff, he would have gone in the top four to five,” an AFC exec said. “As long as he stays the course during the season, he’ll have a huge year. A strong defensive line around him will help him.”

Carter is slated to start alongside former All-Pro Fletcher Cox, with former Georgia Bulldogs teammate Jordan Davis in the mix at defensive tackle. Questions persist about whether Carter can produce consistently.

“He’s a flash player, so he will have some wow moments, but I’m not sure the consistency will be there,” a high-ranking NFL personnel evaluator said.

Also creating buzz: Emmanuel Forbes (Commanders), Will Anderson Jr. (Texans)

Comeback Player of the Year: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Baltimore Ravens

Instead of signing with a team late in 2022, Beckham decided to bag the entire season to ensure full health on his reconstructed knee and become the premier free agent wideout in the 2023 class.

His value on the open market was immense, as he locked in a one-year, $15-million deal that’s almost entirely guaranteed. The deal was so good that it essentially cratered DeAndre Hopkins’ trade market with Arizona because star receivers looking for new teams wanted the Beckham treatment.

Now, after multiple knee injuries, the stage is set for Beckham to produce his first 1,000-yard season since 2019. “I’ve heard he looks good, and [the Ravens] have enough other receiving options to where he won’t have to be doubled all of the time,” an NFL personnel executive said. “I don’t know if he’ll have a monster year but he’ll be good enough to where you say, ‘OK, he missed an entire year and still played at a good, winning level.'”

Also creating buzz: Calvin Ridley (Jaguars), Breece Hall (Jets)

Coach of the Year: Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers

Somehow, despite 163 wins since 2007, Tomlin has zero Coach of the Year wins. But Tomlin and general manager Omar Khan have stockpiled serious talent on both sides of the ball over the past two years. This feels a bit like the 2014-17 Steelers, who emerged from two down years with a revamped offensive line and a potent aerial attack. And any defense with T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cameron Heyward is sure to be stout. “You know, as a baseline, Tomlin’s teams are always going to be pretty good, and if the quarterback can deliver, they have a chance to be really good,” an NFC exec said.

Also creating buzz: Mike McDaniel (Dolphins), Pete Carroll (Seahawks)

Breakout player: Jaelan Phillips, OLB Miami Dolphins

Phillips’ name comes up a lot in the conversation around ascending young talents on defense. The Dolphins are incredibly high on him, and so is most of the league.

Phillips has yet to record his first double-digit-sack season but is poised to do it.

“He’s on his way to being a really high-end edge rusher,” an AFC personnel evaluator said. “He’s been good to very good. “You saw him start to improve on the nuances of the game late last year, and with a coach like [defensive coordinator Vic] Fangio, that will only help him and he’ll take a jump.”

Also creating buzz: Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans), George Pickens (Steelers)

The DB thinks that WR CALVIN RIDLEY will have a better season than ODELL BECKHAM, Jr.

2023 DRAFT

USC QB CALEB WILLIAMS wrestles with the idea that he might not be able to control his destiny – but Mike Florio says he could:

USC quarterback Caleb Williams will likely be the first pick in the 2024 draft. If he submits to the 2024 draft. He might decide to stay in school for another year, make NIL money, and see what happens in 2025.

Regardless, as the leap to the NFL approaches, Williams and his father are beginning to realize there’s something counterintuitive about the NFL draft.

“I’ve always been able to choose the team that I’ve played on, and then everything’s been scheduled for me,” Williams told Sam Schube of GQ. “But now, going into this next part of my career, it’s weird [because] it’s so uncertain. You don’t know anything. You can’t control anything but you and how you act. That’s honestly the weirdest part for me, is the uncertainty.”

But he does have some control, beyond how he acts. His father, Carl, knows what it is. Caleb can skip the 2024 draft, if he doesn’t want to play for the team with the first pick.

“The funky thing about the NFL draft process is, he’d almost be better off not being drafted than being drafted first,” Carl Williams told Schube. “The system is completely backwards. . . . The way the system is constructed, you go to the worst possible situation. The worst possible team, the worst organization in the league — because of their desire for parity — gets the first pick. So it’s the gift and the curse.”

With the caveat, as Carl Williams said, that Caleb gets “two shots at the apple. . . . So if there’s not a good situation, the truth is, he can come back to school.”

But the situation in 2025 might not be any better, since once again the worst team will earn the top spot in the draft. So instead of running from it, why not take charge of it?

Caleb Williams has more control than he currently realizes. He can tell the team holding the first overall pick, “Don’t bother.” And he can back it up with action, refusing to sign a contract if the team holding the first pick takes him.

Many think that, five years after the Cardinals bottomed out for Kyler Murray, they’re hoping to do it again for Williams. Williams can tell them he won’t play for them. He can set terms as to what could get him to change his mind.

Far too rarely do great prospects take control of the draft process. John Elway did it 40 years ago. Eli Manning did it 20 years ago. Maybe it’s time for someone to do it again. Maybe it’s time for it to happen more frequently.

It needs to. That first stop for a player’s career, especially at quarterback, is critical. Would Patrick Mahomes have become Patrick Mahomes if he’d been drafted by the Browns in 2017? He benefited from slipping far enough for a great organization to spring up to get him.

Maybe someone will spring up to get Williams. Regardless, Williams needs to realize that should not just submit to the process. He has power. He has leverage. He has control, beyond the possibility of returning to USC for another season.

Here is the GQ article (most of it and not the fashion photos – one of which has Williams in a skirt) by Sam Schube:

Williams’s performance was so impressive that it began to influence what was happening in the NFL—a year before he could even go pro. When the Arizona Cardinals traded down in this year’s draft, Kimes says, “Everybody knew why.” They wanted to increase their odds of a premium pick in next year’s draft, which Williams will headline.

And already the NFL comparisons have gone into overdrive—with the most popular being to Patrick Mahomes, only the best QB alive. That’s thanks to Williams’s propensity to play “off–schedule,” as NFL observers like to call it, improvising greatness with his hands and feet.

– –

Williams did not arrive here, at this particular moment of opportunity, with a chance to become one of the game’s greats, by good fortune alone. He has been preparing since he was 10—and not in the typical ways that every young kid who wants to become a pro athlete has been “preparing.”

Growing up outside Washington, DC, he was doing hot yoga and media training by high school, and spending summers crisscrossing the country to work with coaches on the bleeding edge of modern quarterbacking. “A lot of people think that everything has come easier, natural, to him,” his father, Carl Williams, tells me. “And that’s the furthest thing from the truth. His desire to follow this dream all the way through has been a marvel to watch.”

In these weeks before USC’s most consequential campaign in years, Williams is at the facility before nine most mornings. Then recovery work with the team’s training staff, followed by a workout. Tutoring after that. Home around lunch, then back to school for more team responsibilities. Dinner’s at eight. His Heisman sits on the windowsill of his apartment.

Williams began his football life as a wrecking ball: a running back on offense, and a linebacker on defense. At one camp, when he was in fifth grade, he tackled a kid so hard he was moved up to play with the sixth graders. Then the same thing happened with the sixth graders. And again with the seventh graders. He finished the week playing with the eighth graders.

He hated to lose—still does, and still cries, rather famously, when it happens. And one night, years ago, after riding the bench as his team lost a big game, Williams decided that the only way to avoid losing was to take the reins himself. So, on a tear-streaked night in a San Antonio hotel, Caleb and his father spoke for hours about how they might turn him into a quarterback. He was 10.

In Caleb’s telling, this was in part a selfless decision. “I wanted to be able to spread the ball around to all my wide receivers, protect them when throwing them the ball,” he says. But, uh, also: “I need to be in control. I need to be in charge. I need to not ever let this happen again.”

The way Caleb articulated all of this, at the tender age of 10, made something clear to his father. “It’s one thing for a kid to say, ‘You know what? I just want to be the guy in control and I want to do this, that, and the other, throw the ball around,’ ” Carl Williams tells me. “It’s another to say, ‘I want to be the greatest.’ He said, ‘If I’m going to play quarterback, I want to be the greatest quarterback who ever played the game.’ ”

Carl, a commercial real estate developer, took his son seriously. Along with two friends, both youth football coaches in the DC area, he devised a plan to turn his son into an all-timer. Daily predawn workouts. Private tutoring in the dark arts of quarterback play. Early to bed, with the thermostat set to a maximum of 68 degrees, to optimize recovery. An ever-growing spreadsheet ranking prospective college programs by their ability to help Caleb become the pro they thought he could be. Carl wasn’t sure it would work—wasn’t sure if, or when, Caleb would burn out. “It was the toughest time of my life,” Caleb says.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Williams had an atypical high school experience. Everything was optimized for his objective: first to play D1 football, and then to go pro. Every possible edge was considered. Williams attended prestigious Gonzaga College High School, blocks from the Capitol and not far from the family’s home. But the short drive could stretch to over an hour during rush hour—so the family got an apartment in a building next to school. Caleb tells me he lived there on his own, which Carl disputes. “He’s 14, 15 years old,” Carl tells me. “I did not send him out there by himself.” He’ll allow this much, though: “It was a big deal to be there. He had to do a lot on his own, and it was a good intermediate step.” The Williamses enlisted the DC crisis-comms operation run by Judy Smith, the lawyer who inspired Scandal’s Olivia Pope, to give Caleb media training. (“What do you learn in media training?” Williams asks, repeating my question back to me. “Traps. You learn traps; how they try and get you to say things.”) He was named the starter as a freshman, and wound up the country’s top-ranked high school QB.

He committed to Oklahoma to play for Lincoln Riley, the man who turned Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray into Heisman winners, and forged Jalen Hurts into the QB who would eventually carry the Philadelphia Eagles to last year’s Super Bowl. It seemed like kismet for Williams when, after spending his freshman season’s first few games serving as the backup, he took his very first snap of the game against archrival Texas 66 yards to the house, sparking a comeback win that became an instant classic.

Which made it painful when Riley announced that he’d taken the USC job. Williams, of course, had committed to OU thinking he’d spend a few years becoming Riley’s newest, shiniest star. “I only played for him, in reality, for about two months, so I was confused,” he says. “I didn’t know if I was wanted at the next place. I was annoyed. I was confused.” The specific nature of their relationship—Riley served as head coach, offensive play caller, and quarterbacks coach—meant that Williams didn’t really have anyone on staff to talk to besides Riley, and now Riley was gone.

The NCAA’s transfer rules specifically govern when and how players can communicate with prospective coaches, which meant Williams had to wait more than a month, until he formally entered the “transfer portal,” to figure out whether or not Riley was interested in a reunion. When they finally did speak, and Riley said there would be a spot for him at USC, Williams says, “it was a big sigh of relief, because now at least I know my damn coach wants me to play for him still.” They didn’t really talk about football, he explains. “I knew that I was the best quarterback for him and his system, and he knew that too. Yeah, that wasn’t the part that we talked about. It was more trying to build the trust back and build the relationship back.” He eventually decided to join his coach out West, but describes those strange weeks as a rare difficult period in an otherwise unblemished career. “That year was one of my toughest years in or around football, because that was my first college,” he says of the end at Oklahoma. “They loved me there.”

– – –

So far, things are going (mostly) according to plan: the Trojans are 2-0 and ranked sixth in the country, and Williams has already racked up a handful of instantly viral highlights. Of course, there’s always room to improve. “I can’t say I’m, like, disappointed with how he’s played,” Riley told reporters after the team’s 52-point blowout over Nevada, in which Williams threw for over 300 yards and five scores. “But he’s got to get better.”

“USC has been good to me, I can’t lie,” Williams says, referring to the lucrative NIL deals he’s inked since becoming a star in Los Angeles. “It’s just opened more doors.”

– – –

A player like Williams could not have existed until now—the NCAA formerly being too restrictive to allow someone like him to earn even a fraction of what he’s worth, and the NFL, until very recently, being too hidebound to value his freewheeling skills appropriately. He plays football the way kids raised on Steph Curry’s roof-scraping threes play hoops. Unbothered, unbound. He is nothing less than the promise of postmodern football fulfilled. Next summer he will in all likelihood be preparing for his first NFL training camp. The stakes will be higher. The media, less forgiving. The opposition, meaner. He will, for the very first time, not be in meaningful control of his career.

“If there’s not a good situation,” Caleb’s father, Carl Williams, says of his son’s NFL draft prospects, “the truth is, he can come back to school.”

This from the Washington Post, back around Heisman time, on Williams being from the “DC area”:

When somebody asks Caleb Williams where he is from, he does not have a stock answer. Sometimes Williams will simply say D.C. His father, Carl, has heard Williams tell people he grew up in “the D.C. area.” Williams could say Prince George’s County, although Carl Williams has not heard that exact response from his son.

.

“A lot of times, he’ll say …” Carl Williams said this week, trailing off as he scanned his memory. “That’s a good question.”

What is less ambiguous is what Washington and its environs mean to Williams. Before he revived a sleeping behemoth across the country, developed into the best quarterback in college football and emerged as the heavy favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, Williams grew up in Bowie, lived in Washington during high school and attended Gonzaga. Before he became an Oklahoma Sooner or Southern California Trojan, Williams was a Bowie Bulldog and a Gonzaga Purple Eagle.

Should Williams hoist the Heisman on Saturday night in New York, he will bring college football glory unknown to the region that shaped him. Despite a history studded with star players and near-misses, no player from D.C., Maryland or Virginia has won college football’s grandest individual prize. For Williams, being the first would add additional honor to winning one of the most prestigious trophies in American sports.

Heisman finalists include three QBs in CFP chase plus USC’s Caleb Williams

“It’s important to him,” Carl Williams said. “It’s important to all of us as a family, to be able to have an impact upon the next generation, to have somebody to have kids look up to.”

Williams, who entered college as the nation’s top recruit and could leave it next year as the first pick in the NFL draft, has the chance to boost the profile of a football community with a paradoxical reputation, both outstanding and overlooked.

D.C. and its Maryland and Virginia suburbs — the DMV, in local parlance — have produced a litany of NFL stars, from Armstrong’s Willie Wood to Good Counsel’s Stefon Diggs. The Washington Catholic Athletic Conference is widely recognized as one the country’s most competitive and high-profile prep leagues, annually sending players to college powerhouses. It is still better known nationally as a basketball hotbed and overshadowed on the high school level by Texas, California, Ohio and several other states. Even Williams’s official website declares that he “hails from the unlikely city of Washington D.C.”

“The D.C. area has been underrated in terms of football,” said Butch McAdams, the legendary former Maret boys basketball coach who hosts “In and Out of Sports” on WOL-AM. “We get our props, rightfully so, for basketball. To have a young man from D.C. to win a Heisman Trophy, it would mean so much to this area. For him to win it, that would be comparable to Sugar Ray Leonard winning the world title. Anytime you have a native son who does exceptionally well, we are all proud of him.”

The Heisman has eluded the region for nearly nine decades, most often going to players from expected locales such as California, Texas and Ohio. But the DMV also pales in Heisman winners next to Iowa (Jay Berwanger, Nile Kinnick), Hawaii (Marcus Mariota) and even Croatia, birthplace of 1942 winner Frank Sinkwich. (Sinkwich, a Georgia halfback, went to high school in Youngstown, Ohio, which, to be sure, is a more traditional incubator of football talent than Zagreb.)

There have been ample close calls. Late Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who grew up in New Jersey but moved to suburban Maryland for high school and attended Bullis, finished third in 2018, believed to be the highest finish for a DMV player. A year later, DeMatha’s Chase Young finished fourth from the same school, a monumental achievement for a defensive end. Stone Bridge’s Jonathan Allen finished seventh at Alabama in 2016, a similarly rare feat for a defensive lineman.

H.D. Woodson’s Byron Leftwich finished sixth in 2002, hampered by a leg injury his senior season at Marshall in the unheralded Mid-American Conference. Jonathan Ogden of St. Albans may be the best football player the region ever produced, but he played offensive tackle, a position about as likely to win the Heisman as water boy. Wood suffered injuries in his final two seasons in the late 1950s as a USC quarterback before he became a Hall of Fame safety for Vince Lombardi’s Green Bay Packers.

Had Newport News’s Michael Vick starred at Virginia Tech before voters practically, if not officially, disqualified freshmen from the award, he may have won in 1999 rather than finishing third. Doug Flutie was born in Maryland but grew up in Massachusetts, and Ron Dayne was born in Blacksburg, Va., according to the Heisman’s website, but moved at a young age to New Jersey. They were born in the DMV but not of it.

The District’s most interesting historical Heisman case may have come from a player who earned zero Heisman votes. Cornelius Greene, a Dunbar quarterback in the early 1970s, had one of the great careers in Ohio State’s storied history, winning three Big Ten championships and playing in four Rose Bowls. As a senior in 1975, Greene was named Big Ten MVP the same season teammate Archie Griffin won his second Heisman.

How could Greene win the title of best player in the conference when his running back was declared the best player in the country? Back then, Greene said, the Big Ten named its MVP after receiving one nominee from each team. Ohio State nominated its team MVP through a player vote. Greene won by one vote over Griffin, who, as Greene recalled, cast his vote for Greene.

Green, who has removed the last “e” from his surname since his playing days, is now an administrator at St. Albans. He remembers how Buckeyes teammates bragged about the quality of Ohio football and how they doubted whether he belonged when he arrived.

“I didn’t want to hear that crap, man,” Green said. “I said: ‘I’m from D.C. We got the best athletes. I’m going to bring that to Ohio and show you.’ ”

Green is a fan of Williams and believes his success could open a pathway for other D.C. prospects to play on the West Coast. When he watches Williams play, Green senses the same confidence he carried to Columbus.

“He has a flair about him,” Green said. “He obviously has some confidence. So did I — I called myself flamboyant in high school. If you grow up in D.C., man, you’re playing with the best athletes across town, you got to make a statement.”

Williams’s flair has at times drifted into mild controversy — critics assailed him for painting “F— Utah” on his fingernails before the Pac-12 championship game. But the charisma Williams displays on the field also helped make him a team leader as a freshman at Oklahoma and a first-year transfer at USC. That, several people close to him said, is a product of where he grew up.

“The swag that he plays with is what D.C. people will associate with most,” Carl Williams said. “He’s a D.C. kid. He’s a D.C., PG County kid. He’s been in the tough gyms with the tough guys. That impacts who you are and how you play. The same swag that people identify with [Kevin Durant] coming out of PG, it’s noticeable. It’s hard to put your finger on it, but it’s noticeable.”

Living in D.C. instilled in Williams a worldliness that has served him in college football’s frenzied modern landscape. At Gonzaga, he dealt with national media attention. He has thrived in the fishbowl of Norman, Okla., and the major market of Los Angeles. At 20, Williams has a foundation — Caleb Cares, dedicated to anti-bullying and youth mental health — and an endorsement deal with Beats By Dre.

“People watch, and they say: ‘Man, this young guy doing these things. How is he doing that?’ ” Gonzaga Coach Randy Trivers said. “If he went to school in a different place or a different league, I don’t know if he would be ready to do what he did at Oklahoma or what he is doing at USC. Being able to navigate when you’re in D.C. and navigate the standards and expectations — this type of academic work, football work, community work — and do it in a place that has tradition and legacy, it helps prepare you for what it is you’re getting into.”

Williams grew up in Bowie and moved with his family into a Northwest D.C. apartment when he chose Gonzaga over a bevy of both local and national suitors. He chose Gonzaga, Carl said, because he wanted a school that would provide the highest level of football, an educational experience that would keep him grounded and a “brotherhood.” The school motto — “Men for Others” — appealed to the Williams family.

“That spirit is in his heart,” Trivers said.

As Williams’s profile has expanded, Trivers has received many calls from people outside the Washington area to talk about Williams. Some are curious about Gonzaga’s location, and they wrongly assume it must be in the suburbs. The school’s urban setting, Trivers believes, made a subtle impact on Williams.

“You walk out of the east end zone and you look south, the Capitol dome is five blocks down the road,” Trivers said. “Driving around the city, you come up on, ‘Whoa, there’s a football field in the middle of these buildings.’ To come to school at a place like that every day, there’s no school like that, with that backdrop, in that place physically.”

The school might someday receive a visit from a Heisman Trophy, carried by a player who has done something that nobody from here has done before.