The Daily Briefing Monday, April 25, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

It’s dangerous to get quarterback-desperate in the NFL Draft.

Based on the opinions of some key decision-makers around the league, teams are facing an increasingly high risk of chasing the position this week in the first round. Such a mistake — misidentifying a prospect or failing to develop the QB — can have long-term organizational consequences.

“I don’t think anybody really likes the quarterbacks enough in this draft to think any of those guys are really franchise-changers,” a general manager told The Athletic.

That was a kind characterization relative to an offensive coach’s much stronger evaluation.

“The quarterbacks are horrific,” the coach said. “I mean, terrible.”

Pre-draft opinions aren’t always prescient. If draft evaluations were straightforward, there wouldn’t be so much job turnover in the NFL; Tom Brady wouldn’t have plummeted to the sixth round, and Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen would’ve been top overall picks.

And these evaluations of the 2022 class do not represent a consensus opinion. If a well-run organization identifies the right quarterback, provides him with enough support and gives him time to develop, it will increase its chances of finding a franchise-changing signal caller.

“The quarterback position is being completely undervalued,” an executive said. “I think this is as talented of a class as any. I’m kind of surprised when you look at the narrative that is out there. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case (with it being a down year). It’s the hardest position to evaluate and project. I don’t think it’s any different than years past.”

The Athletic asked one general manager, four executives and two offensive coaches to rank top QB prospects Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell.

Willis and Pickett were the top pair of picks by six of the voters — with a caveat. They all agreed Pickett was the readiest to start if necessary but that Willis has the highest ceiling if given the opportunity to develop. The seventh voter believed Corral was the best of the group.

It gets interesting after Willis and Pickett. Three of the voters tabbed Ridder as the third-best QB in the class, while three picked Corral (plus the voter who viewed him as the best of the group).

Five of the voters predicted three quarterbacks would be taken in the first round. The other pair were split between one and two QBs being selected Thursday night.

It’s still a guessing game with a lot of intrigue. One executive believed the Saints’ trade with the Eagles had telegraphed their pursuit of a quarterback, which could create a draft-night run at the position. Another executive from a QB-needy team in the top half of the draft said they wouldn’t use their slotted pick on any of the signal callers. But if Willis or Pickett unexpectedly slid into the back of the first round, they’d consider trading up to take advantage of the value.

“It’s a crapshoot after the first two, honestly,” a second executive said. “If you ask 10 different teams, you might get 10 different rankings of quarterbacks numbered three through six.”

Here are some comments showing how each of the top QBs is viewed by those who were polled for this story.

Malik Willis

• “Willis has all the physical tools.”

• “Willis has the most upside.”

• “Willis has the arm talent and athletic ability, but there are consistency issues with accuracy and the timing and anticipation. Some of the things he did offensively in college don’t translate, so the learning curve might be longer — not because he can’t do it but because of how different his scheme was at Liberty and how he’ll adjust to the pro game.”

Kenny Pickett

• “Pickett is the most ready. The hand size is an issue, but he’s cerebral, can anticipate, plays the game the way it’s supposed to be played. He’s tough, a leader, competitive, all the qualities you’re looking for, but he’s not extremely gifted throwing the football. He’s good.”

• “Pickett’s tape is really good. He’s been productive and is a talented dude.”

• “Pickett is the most pro-ready right now.”

Matt Corral

• “Corral has a live arm. He’s accurate. He’s a competitor. He’s overly competitive at times in terms of not understanding when to slide and get down. He has a low release point for a guy who isn’t very big. He was at times a little careless with the football.”

• “I’m not a huge Corral guy, personally. I wouldn’t pick him in the first round, but I think he’s probably going to go (in the first round).”

• “The size is a concern with the way he plays and the hits he’ll take.”

Desmond Ridder

• “Ridder is really clean, really intelligent, probably more NFL-ready than people think.”

• “Ridder, if put in a situation where he can sit for a year and grow, still has really good upside but is not as high as Malik Willis.”

• “Ridder is a little bit mechanical, rigid, does some nice things with anticipation and throwing it accurately down the seams. He’s a good seams and in-breaker thrower, does a nice job of getting through progressions. But out-breaking, or when things break down in the pocket, I didn’t feel like he had a great feel. He’s not running around making plays. When the pocket breaks down, he doesn’t show good escapability to make plays on the run.”

Sam Howell

• “Howell had a little bit of a down year, but he’s got moxie. He’s tough. He’s accurate. He’s got enough arm.”

• “Reminds me of Tim Tebow.”

DETROIT

Albert Breer of SI.com on what the Lions might do at #2:

What you need to know: Consensus for three months has been that if Hutchinson doesn’t go to Jacksonville, the Lions will keep him home—and that makes a ton of sense. If Hutchinson goes first, then Walker is widely seen as a better cultural fit for Dan Campbell’s program than Kayvon Thibodeaux. But … it’s been pointed out to me that one of the few pro days GM Brad Holmes made it to this spring was Oregon’s, and he led an armada of Lions folks that included Chris Spielman, and the Lions had him in for a 30 visit after that. Detroit’s also been connected, in my talks with teams, to Liberty QB Malik Willis and Cincinnati CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner. Would they take a corner or quarterback at No. 2? We’ll see. Most rival teams don’t think so.

NEW YORK GIANTS

The new Giants regime wants to jettison Dave Gettleman’s last first round pick.  Zach Rosenblatt of NJAdvanceMedia.com:

Kadarius Toney’s Giants career started on one foot.

It might end with a whimper.

There is a belief around the league that the mercurial wide receiver is available in a trade, multiple people told NJ Advance Media, including an executive from an NFC team. New York Daily News was first to report about a potential Toney trade.

Toney responded to the rumors by posting a message to Instagram saying “if you believe everything on the internet you (gullible).”

Whether Toney is actively getting shopped by Giants general manager Joe Schoen — who didn’t draft Toney — remains unclear, and the second-year wideout might not have much value, just one year after he was drafted in the first round out of University of Florida. The NFC executive surmised that Toney wouldn’t net any more than a mid-round pick in a potential deal. The Giants would also lose money ($1.1 million in cap space, with a $5.5 million dead cap penalty) by trading him.

Toney likely wouldn’t net much in a trade because of the many knocks against him, including questions about his maturity, commitment to football and durability — even if his talent is tantalizing. Toney made the curious decision to skip voluntary minicamp earlier this week even though the majority of the roster was in attendance. Since he’s yet to report, Toney hasn’t received his playbook.

Peter King:

I think I’m not convinced the Giants will trade problem wideout Kadarius Toney. I certainly would be wary of trading for Toney, the Giants’ man-child wide receiver who had some wonderful moments last year, including in the unlikely win over New Orleans. He’s slithery, very fast, and hard to bring down. Now the Giants, I think, have to decide if he’s going to be a fit in their offense with the new Brian Daboll/Joe Schoen regime. Reported Pat Leonard, who reported that the Giants are looking to trade Toney in the New York Daily News: “His commitment came into question behind the scenes during his rookie year due to lack of playbook study, poor meeting behavior and frequent injuries.” Maybe Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes could reel him back to reality. Maybe. But my gut says Brian Daboll is going to try to get Toney back in the program, and soon.

The Giants also have CB JAMES BRADBURRY on the market.  More from King:

I think I’d guess that James Bradberry of the Giants, the good corner New York GM Joe Schoen needs to trade to be in good cap shape going forward, will be dealt before the end of the weekend. I don’t have a great feel for where he’s going, but Kansas City wouldn’t shock me. In that division, you’re going to play six games every year against upper-tier quarterbacks, and the KC corner situation is just okay; L’Jarius Sneed is the only difference-maker the team has. Bradberry would be a good fit there, but Kansas City’s not looking to add a big-money player. We’ll see if Schoen can find a home for Bradberry this week. 

Albert Breer of SI.com on the first two picks for the Giants = #5 and #7:

What you need to know: This is going to sound bland and general, but GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll don’t view this as a one-year rebuild, and so their focus will be on getting the best players at the most valuable positions. My guess is that’ll mean building up the lines and maybe grabbing a corner high, too. And one thing most people seem relatively convicted on is that the Giants are coming out of the first round with a left tackle. The one I’ve heard them connected to most is Mississippi State’s Charles Cross, whom some regard as the best player in the draft (others are more skeptical of a tackle coming out of Mike Leach’s offense, especially after how Andre Dillard turned out). My sense is they’re very open to moving the seventh pick, and like the idea of trying to get a high 2023 pick out of their haul of ’22 picks, given the relative weakness of this year’s class). If they hang on to No. 7, someone like Thibodeaux would make sense.

CAROLINA

Ian Rapoport’s sources say the Panthers won’t go after QB BAKER MAYFIELD – at least not before the draft.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

If the Carolina Panthers make a play for veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield, it won’t be before Thursday night.

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday that the Panthers are not expected to trade for Mayfield prior to the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, if they do it at all, per sources informed of the situation.

The Panthers, who pick at No. 6 overall, want Thursday to play out first before reassessing where they are vis-à-vis Mayfield. Obviously, if they select a QB in the first round, that would wipe out the need for a Mayfield trade.

The former Browns No. 1 overall pick has been on the trade block since Cleveland traded for Deshaun Watson.

Earlier in the process, the Panthers didn’t have interest in pairing Mayfield with fellow 2018 draftee Sam Darnold and, likewise, Mayfield wasn’t much interested in Carolina.

However, as the QB carousel has continued to spin, there are few landing spots left where Mayfield would have a shot to start. Carolina and Seattle remain the most obvious landing spots, but there has been little interest generated.

With draft week upon us, we’ll see if interest changes. For the Panthers, they’ll wait until the first round of the draft at least to reassess the landscape.

But Albert Breer is hearing the QB won’t come with draft pick #6:

What you need to know: I think there’s a way better chance they’ll take a tackle here over a quarterback than most people do—provided that Cross, Ekwonu or Neal is still available when they’re up. In fact, there are teams that are convinced the Panthers won’t take a quarterback. Could they even get trigger-happy and try to trade with, say, the Jets to try to get in front of the Giants to get someone like Cross? Given their lack of numbers in picks, I’d say it’s unlikely, but I wouldn’t totally rule it out. And if the tackles are gone, or even if they aren’t, I do believe the preference here would be to trade down, maybe with a team coming up for a pass rusher. If it is a quarterback? Most have them pegged to take Willis or Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, with a little underlying buzz that Ole Miss’s Matt Corral has support in that building.

SAN FRANCISCO

Peter King thinks the 49ers should ride out the displeasure of WR DEEBO SAMUEL:

I think if I were John Lynch, I wouldn’t trade Deebo Samuel until I absolutely had to. He’s too good. I’d keep the volume down on any incendiary talk, which Lynch surely will do, starting today at his pre-draft press conference, and let things simmer for a while. Not saying Samuel will change his mind—he told ESPN’s Jeff Darlington he wants out—but if every professional sports star who asked to be traded actually was, we’d have 25 mega-trades a year, not three or four.

I think there’s a risk in not trading Samuel now, obviously. There will be an argument that Samuel will fetch the most value before the draft, particularly with a desperado team like the Jets having two picks in the top 10. It’s interesting to consider where the interest might be greatest. Lynch will have to consider whether trading Samuel for, say, the 10th pick in the draft, and turning that pick into the possible first receiver in the draft, would be worth it. I would say no, because what’s the second prize here? It’s the Jets’ first-round pick in 2023 plus something (or some other team’s first-rounder plus something). One GM told me Friday when I asked what is fair market return for Samuel that a mid-round first this year, plus something significant this year or next—either a player or second-day pick.

HOUSTON

Albert Breer of SI.com on what the Texans might do with pick #3:

What you need to know: Over the last few weeks, I’ve heard real questions on Laremy Tunsil’s future in Houston. His deal was restructured in March, so I’d think he’ll be around this fall. But 2023 is a contract year for the 27-year-old, and if he or the team aren’t going to want to go forward from there, a player like Neal or Ekwonu makes sense at No. 3. Both can play inside or at right tackle (and may be better at those spots), and their experience and ability to play left tackle could give the Texans the flexibility to trade Tunsil after this year. That said, more than a few personnel people have raised to me what Lovie Smith said about needing corners a couple of weeks ago, a comment that stood out because Smith’s defense hasn’t valued the position the way others have over the years. Which makes me wonder if that might be more of a tell on someone like Washington’s Trent McDuffie or LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr. at 13 than Gardner at three (and I’ve heard they like Stingley). Also worth mentioning is that McDuffie, Neal and Ekwonu are very clean character-wise, which I’d bet will be important for GM Nick Caserio with his first set of first-round picks since taking the reins in Houston. And one other name I was given to watch here (and there’s a lot of guessing going on, when it comes to what Caserio’s thinking) was Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson.

JACKSONVILLE

The Jaguars are now expected to take George EDGE TRAYVON WALKER with the number one pick by the betting public.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

It happened over the weekend. And it has shaken up the very top of the draft.

Via PointsBet, Georgia defensive end Travon Walker is now the favorite to become the first overall pick. His odds currently are -155.

Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson has fallen to +150, followed by N.C. State tackle Ikem Ekwonu at +600 and Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, at +1800. Alabama tackle Evan Neal continues to provide great value at +1800.

Walker is also the new favorite at DraftKings and FanDuel. Hutchinson, at +110, is now the PointsBet favorite to go to Detroit with the No. 2 overall pick.

The Jaguars have said they’ve narrowed their list to four players. On Thursday night, we’ll find out which one they take.

This from Todd McShay of ESPN.com which could have sparked the betting move:

Jacksonville Jaguars (Pick No. 1)

Let’s start off with a big one. All the intel I’ve gathered points to Georgia edge rusher Travon Walker — not Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson — as the No. 1 overall pick for the Jaguars. The belief around the league is Jacksonville prefers the upside and traits of Walker over the proven production, motor and leadership that Hutchinson brings to the table. And it is nearly a lock that one of them will come off the board first.

Nearly all the execs, scouts and coaches that I spoke with would personally take Hutchinson at No. 1 if it were them, though. Hutchinson is so technically efficient off the edge, and he is relentless in getting to the QB. He had 14 sacks, 15.5 tackles for loss and 64 pressures last season. That’s elite, and many teams prefer that kind of proven impact. But Walker’s versatility, length, speed, explosion and strength could be the difference for the Jaguars. Execs around the NFL tell me Jacksonville just loves his upside, even though Walker (six sacks and 29 pressures) didn’t fill the stat sheet like Hutchinson did in 2021.

Albert Breer of SI.com wouldn’t rule out an OL at #1:

What you need to know: Baalke said this week that there are four guys in the running for the first pick, and if I had to guess their identity (and this is just an educated guess), I’d bet on it being Michigan’s Hutchinson, Georgia’s Walker, NC State’s Ekwonu and Alabama’s Neal. And one common refrain, even with scuttlebutt I heard over the weekend that a Cam Robinson extension could be coming, is that Pederson so values offensive linemen that even with a paycheck for a good-not-great player like Robinson—one ex-co-worker of Pederson’s said, “I’d think he’d want to keep building that up.” So while we’ve mentioned that Baalke may feel some pressure to take the chalk pick (Hutchinson), and may like the traits-y projection (Walker), and the Jags could use another edge to play with Josh Allen, that tug is there for me that Pederson might still push for the kind of tackle he had in Philly (Jason Peters/Lane Johnson) or Kansas City (Eric Fisher/Mitchell Schwartz). Jacksonville also has done a ton of work on the line group and, for what it’s worth, I heard very early on Baalke likes Ekwonu.

THIS AND THAT

QB DRAFT CLASSES

Marc Sessler of NFL.com ranks each of the last 22 draft classes at the QB position.  You can read the whole enormous thing here, but we give you the bottom three and the top three.  We haven’t looked but 2004 has to be the best, right (Eli, Big Ben, Rivers)?

22) 2007

Round 1: JaMarcus Russell (No. 1 overall), Brady Quinn (No. 22)

Round 2: Kevin Kolb (No. 36), John Beck (No. 40), Drew Stanton (No. 43)

Round 3: Trent Edwards (No. 92)

Round 4: Isaiah Stanback (No. 103)

Round 5: Jeff Rowe (No. 151), Troy Smith (No. 174)

Round 6: Jordan Palmer (No. 205)

Round 7: Tyler Thigpen (No. 2017)

Notable undrafted: Matt Moore

We begin our journey in grim territory. The 2007 NFL Draft was “headlined” by JaMarcus Russell, arguably the most severe quarterback bust of all time and a first-overall whiff who set the Raiders back years. The 6-foot-6, 265-pound LSU star produced a grotesque 7-18 mark as a starter and finished 2009 — his final year in the league — as the worst passer in football. Russell netted $39.4 million, while the Raiders, in return, were handed a raging headache. Same goes for the Browns, who reached for Brady Quinn at No. 22, only to turn around three years later and trade him to the Broncos for fullback Peyton Hillis — who at least managed to sneak onto the cover of Madden. Career backup Drew Stanton is one of the few to earn points inside a flatlining class that handed us John Beck, Trent Edwards and the overhyped Kevin Kolb. High-level busts and zero reliable starters make this the worst crop of them all.

21) 2013

Round 1: EJ Manuel (No. 16)

Round 2: Geno Smith (No. 39)

Round 3: Mike Glennon (No. 73)

Round 4: Matt Barkley (No. 98), Ryan Nassib (No. 110), Tyler Wilson (No. 112), Landry Jones (No. 115)

Round 7: Brad Sorensen (No. 221), Zac Dysert (No. 234), B.J. Daniels (No. 237), Sean Renfree (No. 249)

Notable undrafted: Matt McGloin

Teams were surprised when the Bills reached for EJ Manuel with the 16th overall selection. Seen by most as a project with potential, the Florida State product was a turnover-prone flop in Buffalo — a player Doug Marrone replaced with Kyle Orton before Rex Ryan signed Tyrod Taylor to avoid leaning on Manuel. This class lacked a true first-round prospect, while the only second-rounder, Geno Smith, is a starter-turned-backup who was perhaps best known for catching a fist to the jaw from his own teammate before re-emerging in Seattle last year to post his first multi-start season since 2014. Joining Manuel and Smith in the ranks of backup journeymen is lanky/erratic passer Mike Glennon. Matt Barkley has thrown 97 passes since 2017.

20) 2002

Round 1: David Carr (No. 1), Joey Harrington (No. 3), Patrick Ramsey (No. 32)

Round 3: Josh McCown (No. 81)

Round 4: David Garrard (No. 108), Rohan Davey (No. 117)

Round 5: Randy Fasani (No. 137), Kurt Kittner (No. 158), Brandon Doman (No. 163), Craig Nall (No. 164)

Round 6: J.T. O’Sullivan (No. 186), Steve Bellisari (No. 205)

Round 7: Seth Burford (No. 216), Jeff Kelly (No. 232), Ronald Curry (No. 235), Wes Pate (No. 236)

Notable undrafted: Shaun Hill, Chad Hutchinson

Best in show? I side with Josh McCown, the enduring, fun-to-watch, sometimes starter who might wind up as a head coach someday. While David Carr never lived up to the status of being the No. 1 overall pick, his situation reminds me of what happened to Tim Couch in Cleveland: a young quarterback tossed into the fire on a wanting expansion team struggling to find its way. David Garrard produced a flock of flashy moments with the Jaguars, while Shaun Hill — an undrafted arm — spent 15 years in the league. This class was also yanked to Earth by two first-round nightmares, Detroit’s Joey Harrington and Washington’s Patrick Ramsey, who combined for a 28-51 record with the teams that mistakenly chose them. For diehards, this class also gifted us with undrafted mystery Chad Hutchinson.

And the top three:

3) 2018

Round 1: Baker Mayfield (No. 1), Sam Darnold (No. 3), Josh Allen (No. 7), Josh Rosen (No. 10), Lamar Jackson (No. 32)

Round 3: Mason Rudolph (No. 76)

Round 4: Kyle Lauletta (No. 108)

Round 5: Mike White (No. 171)

Round 6: Luke Falk (No. 199), Tanner Lee (No. 203)

Round 7: Danny Etling (No. 219), Alex McGough (No. 220), Logan Woodside (No. 249)

Notable undrafted: Kyle Allen

Lamar Jackson is a former MVP and one of pro football’s most electric operators. Baltimore’s run-heavy offense has its critics — and the Ravens have struggled in January — but defensive coordinators know what Jackson presents: a skull-shaking headache on turf. Josh Allen is one of football’s most watchable forces of nature and a bona fide MVP candidate heading into his fifth campaign. His inconsistencies melted away over the past two seasons, replaced by thrilling lobs and jaw-dropping dashes for a Super Bowl-or-bust Bills club.

Baker Mayfield’s better moments (he helped Cleveland to its first playoff win since 1994 and set a league-wide rookie record with 27 touchdowns, since broken by Justin Herbert) gave way to complete chaos as the Browns viciously dumped him for Deshaun Watson. Could Mayfield wind up in a bizarre quarterback competition with first-round flop Sam Darnold in Carolina? Rosen is the less-fortunate Josh, reduced to nothing more than backup fodder. Mason Rudolph is more cold than hot and no reason for the Steelers to discontinue their search for Big Ben’s successor.

2) 2017

Round 1: Mitchell Trubisky (No. 2), Patrick Mahomes (No. 10), Deshaun Watson (No. 12)

Round 2: DeShone Kizer (No. 52)

Round 3: Davis Webb (No. 87), C.J. Beathard (No. 104)

Round 4: Joshua Dobbs (No. 135))

Round 5: Nathan Peterman (No. 171)

Round 6: Brad Kaaya (No. 215)

Round 7: Chad Kelly (No. 253)

Notable undrafted: Taysom Hill, Nick Mullens

Bears fans will spend the next decade-plus absorbing constant reminders of ex-general manager Ryan Pace trading up for Mitchell Trubisky while Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson went overlooked. Mahomes rides a trajectory to become the finest player of his generation. Already an MVP and Super Bowl champion, the bucket list is thinning.

Watson is a Pro Bowl talent whose serious off-the-field issues didn’t stop the Browns from handing him more guaranteed money than any quarterback in history. While he’s an obvious upgrade over Mayfield, it’s unclear when he will be available to play, with no publicly known timeline for the NFL’s ongoing investigation of allegations of sexual misconduct. From a pure talent standpoint, though, Watson and Mahomes form the top single-class duo on this list.

I like Taysom Hill more as a gadget-magician than a starting quarterback, but the retired Sean Payton would happily write a book of sea poems about the man.

1) 2004

Round 1: Eli Manning (No. 1), Philip Rivers (No. 4), Ben Roethlisberger (No. 11), J.P. Losman (No. 22)

Round 3: Matt Schaub (No. 90)

Round 4: Luke McCown (No. 106)

Round 5: Craig Krenzel (No. 148)

Round 6: Andy Hall (No. 185), Josh Harris (No. 187), Jim Sorgi (No. 193), Jeff Smoker (No. 201)

Round 7: John Navarre (No. 202), Cody Pickett (No. 217), Casey Bramlet (No. 218), Matt Mauck (No. 225), B.J. Symons (No. 248), Bradlee Van Pelt (No. 250)

The gold standard for quarterback classes of the 21st century. The 2004 collection of signal-callers boasts four Super Bowl wins, while the group’s big three — Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger — can all make cases for the Hall of Fame. The trio’s 721 regular-season starts also tell the tale of ironman passers counted on to dress game after game and year after year by their respective teams. The Chargers and Giants will always be linked because of the draft-day trade that sent Manning to New York and Rivers to San Diego. Deep history today, though, with Eli dipped in retirement and Rivers calling it quits in 2021 after a one-year stint with the Colts. Of the group, Big Ben put together the finest career, which he was able to end on a relatively high note last season following a rough-and-tumble 2020. The first round also included a titanic bust in J.P. Losman, but third-rounder Matt Schaub beat the odds to play for 17 seasons. Shame on those of you who don’t recall the feats of Matt Mauck. If this class came around every year, the league would be turning signal-callers away at the door.

Sessler has 2020 – with JOE BURROW and JUSTIN HERBERT in 4^th.  If TUA, JALEN HURTS or JORDAN LOVE breakout late, this year could jump up to #2.

BROADCAST NEWS

Peter King notes that Amazon wants an extra game on Black Friday – and is willing to pay for it.

Very quietly, during the NFL meetings last month in Florida, owners passed what looked like a meaningless resolution—and in the grand scheme of things, it’s not a huge story. But the resolution has some interesting meaning: Owners gave the NFL permission to schedule two more teams for a second short-week game.

No big deal, except to Amazon Prime, the new owners of the Thursday night package of NFL games. Amazon will attempt to get Americans who don’t have Amazon Prime membership to pay $8.99 a month now for its streaming service. So Amazon is focused on a great package of games this fall to help convince potential subscribers it’s a must-have service.

Amazon Prime has wanted a Black Friday game—a game on the Friday after Thanksgiving—as part of its schedule in 2022, or at the latest by 2023. This resolution gave the NFL the ability to take two more teams and make them play, in this case, on the Friday following a Sunday game. For each, it would be the second time of the year playing on three- or four-days rest, something no coach will actually want to do.

But for Amazon Prime—a new partner the NFL very much wants to help succeed because of the deep-pocketed ways they’ve shown as the first major player in streaming a series of games nationally—a Black Friday game would be huge. What better marketing tool for Amazon Prime than to put a game in the wheelhouse of their consumers, on the busiest shopping day of the year? With so many shoppers eschewing brick-and-mortar stores in favor of shopping from the couch, imagine the marketing heft when commercials can be targeted at stay-at-home shoppers.

All sounds great … except the deal’s not done yet. It’s not as easy as it seems. There’s some opposition in the league about playing a game on Nov. 25, and there’s a decent chance the NFL will put off a Black Friday game on Amazon Prime till 2023. But it’s going to happen, I’m told, by next year at the latest.

Amazon has made a huge bid for the game. I’m told it’s between $70 million and $100 million for a Black Friday game, which would be added to the current package. (That’s in the same neighborhood of what network partners have paid for wild-card playoff games recently.) Seems like a win-win.

Here’s why it might not be:

• Competition for sporting eyes that day. The eyes of the nation on Black Friday will be on the USA-England World Cup match in Qatar, going live at 2 p.m. ET.

• There’s a very small window to show the game. The NFL is forbidden from doing a night game on a Friday or Saturday before the second Saturday in December, to protect the audiences at high-school playoff games and college football games till mid-December. So that means the Black Friday game would have to begin no later than 4:15 p.m. ET or so.

• Internal league-office opposition. It’s big, I hear, perhaps big enough to turn down a $2-million-plus-per-team found-money windfall.

• Inventory. This might be the biggest problem. On Thanksgiving weekend, there are already six national TV games on the schedule: three on Thanksgiving, one doubleheader game Sunday, prime-time Sunday and prime-time Monday. How much is too much, particularly on a weekend when there’s likely to be at least two teams on the bye? So Detroit-versus-whoever in the first Thanksgiving game is a traditionally sketchy matchup, but the next five have to be pretty good. There really isn’t inventory to be sure that an extra game can be a solid matchup. And does Amazon want to write a big check for, say, Tennessee-Houston—one good team and one very iffy one?

So if the league okays the Amazon Prime game for Nov. 25, it would likely be wedged after the World Cup and before prime time, without a lot of buzz to it, on an untraditional day for the NFL, with at least one risky team. If the league okays it, it’s a clear sign—among the many we’ve seen in recent years—that money is the ultimate decider in the NFL.

Surely the Silver and Black Raiders should play on Black Friday.  Against who?  The Black and Purple Ravens?  The Falcons? The Saints? – Those three teams are not on the Raiders schedule.  But the Steelers are in Pittsburgh.

King also goes ahead and makes some guesses about Week 1 games (plus Amazon):

Since I’m making a fool of myself once in this column with the mock draft, why not take a shot at double foolishness?

The NFL announced that it will make public the first Thursday night game for Amazon Prime (Week 2, Sept. 15) during the first round of the draft on Thursday. The full schedule will be announced May 12. My best guesses for the two early big games:

Opening night, Sept. 8, NBC: Bills at Rams, SoFi Stadium

Backup best guess: Broncos at Rams

The NFL will often save a monster matchup like Bills-Rams for later in the season, either for a Sunday night or Sunday network doubleheader game. This year’s a little different. Last year, the Dallas-Tampa Bay opener did such huge numbers—26 million viewers on all NBC platforms, the highest ratings for a Thursday opener in six years—that the NFL is likely thinking it has to come close to hitting that kind of home run this year. The last thing the league wants is a Debbie Downer-press release in the wake of the game announcing ratings for the season-opener were down X percent. Now, you might think Russell Wilson’s first game in a Denver uniform would do a big number too, and it would. But the NFL also has to think of a game that’s going to be competitive for four quarters. Broncos-Rams likely would be; Bills-Rams, most would argue, has a better chance to be tight at the two-minute warning of the fourth quarter. But neither matchup would surprise me here.

Opening Amazon game, Sept. 15, Amazon Prime: Chargers at Chiefs, Arrowhead Stadium

Backup best guess: Broncos at Chiefs

This game is going to show how much the NFL wants Amazon to win. September Thursdays are usually the gameslot the league uses to get the bottom teams their lone prime-time appearances of the season. To put Patrick Mahomes in a prime-time Thursday window in Week 2 is the NFL paying homage to a new way of seeing games—streaming—while forcing traditional football consumers (fans of a certain age) to understand what they have to do to get this newfangled Amazon Prime. I’m told Amazon wants Justin Herbert-Mahomes, and there is still some sentiment to put Russell Wilson in this slot instead for the Wilson-Mahomes starpower.

2022 DRAFT

Some of NFL.com’s experts give us a sleeper who would be first round worthy if called:

The 2022 NFL Draft is nearly one week away, and just 32 prospects will have the honor of hearing NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell announce their names on Day 1 in Las Vegas. Consequently, a slew of highly talented players will still be on the board come Friday evening, when Round 2 gets underway. Day 2 of the draft annually features underrated talent and produces instant-impact rookies. All of this begs the question …

Which prospect might not be selected in the first round, but SHOULD be?

Willie McGinest: Had it not been for a torn Achilles suffered at Michigan’s pro day last month, David Ojabo undoubtedly would be in line to come off the board in Round 1. He burst onto the national scene in his first season as a starter for the Wolverines in 2021, posting 11 sacks and five forced fumbles (a school record) while playing opposite top pass-rush prospect Aidan Hutchinson. Although he is a raw talent who’s now recovering from a major injury, Ojabo will likely be a steal on Day 2 for an NFL team that’s willing to wait a year to reap the benefits of the dynamic edge rusher.

Marc Ross: I’ve been saying for months now that Skyy Moore is my favorite player in this year’s draft. While other big-school wideouts are locks to go in Round 1 — guys like Jameson Williams, Drake London, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave — Moore was an under-the-radar prospect at the start of the pre-draft process. He can match any of those aforementioned guys in terms of pure production, playmaking, football intelligence and skills. The versatile receiver has the talent and confidence to be a winning starter no matter where he is drafted.

Rhett Lewis: I’m saying Oklahoma’s Nik Bonitto. A fireball off the edge, Bonitto has great athleticism and first-step quickness to gain an advantage against offensive tackles. One attribute we’ve discussed a bunch on NFL Network’s Path to the Draft: Bonitto’s ability to bend and get around tackles, and how it compares favorably to edge players projected to go in the first round. He is a bit undersized (6-foot-3, 248 pounds) to be a prototypical edge defender, but he can hold up against the run. He will no doubt be an impact player for the NFL team that takes him on Day 2.

DeAngelo Hall: Alabama wide receiver John Metchie is a projected Day 2 pick but is worthy of being a first-rounder. He was having a great season in 2021 — with a team-high 96 catches for 1,142 yards, 11.9 per rec., eight TDs in 13 starts — before suffering a torn ACL in the SEC title game, which forced him to miss the team’s playoff run and certainly hurt his draft stock. The 5-11, 187-pound wideout is a clean route runner and has what it takes to be a starting slot receiver, as long as he fully recovers from the knee injury.

James Jones: Moore caught everyone’s attention with his strong combine performance. In reality, the Western Michigan wideout displayed those explosive skills each time he stepped on the field. He’s a crisp route runner who will thrive out of the slot or outside at the next level. His size (5-10, 195) will likely keep him out of Round 1, but we’ve seen plenty of smaller receivers have great NFL careers. The teams that pass on Moore early will be wishing they hadn’t this coming fall.

– – –

Here we go, Peter King’s Mock Draft which is fueled by plenty of chats with insiders:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Travon Walker, defensive lineman, Georgia

Expect a surprise, I heard out of Jacksonville recently. Hmmm. That would eliminate Aidan Hutchinson here. The trendy pick after that has been Walker, so that really wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Ikem Ekwonu, perhaps? I’ll go with the one-year-college-start upside guy, Walker.

It’s risky, and I’m as skeptical of one-year wonders as the next mock-drafter, but it falls into GM Trent Baalke’s history of taking the athletic playmakers. I’ve got a video to show you about Walker.

You want to know why people around the NFL are smitten with Walker? The effort on this play—in the biggest game of his career, with other guys on his defense not selling out the way Walker was—is a big thing to football people. The troubling part for Walker and his 9.5 career sacks in 29 games is that if he’s the pick, the comparisons to Hutchinson will be forever. That’s something Baalke had better factor in.

2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan

“A real Dan Campbell player,” one NFL GM told me about the steadiest player in this draft. Campbell got a lot of people to chuckle when he talked about wanting players who want to bite kneecaps. It was his way of saying he wants guys who love football, who don’t take off plays, who won’t allow the Lions to be downtrodden anymore. Ask scouts about Hutchinson and they’ll tell you that’s how he played every one of his 43 career games in Ann Arbor.

Hutchinson is a different cat. He’s been journaling—hand-writing, not typing—since he was 4. Some days he writes what he wants to be, he told me. “Just telling myself that I’m limitless,” he said. “I have an infinite mindset. I have no boundaries. There’s no mountain that I can’t reach. That’s how I view myself and me playing football.” Tell me Dan Campbell’s not going to froth at the mouth if GM Brad Holmes has the chance to draft this 6-6, 260-pound 10-year starter.

Final note: Some late buzz about the Lions being smitten with Kayvon Thibodeaux and strongly considering him here. I just can’t see them passing on Hutchinson.

3. Houston Texans: Ikem Ekwonu, offensive tackle, North Carolina State

If you’re the Texans, you’re really drafting for 2024. GM Nick Caserio’s got to be thinking of the long haul, and the long haul probably doesn’t consist of Laremy Tunsil and Brandin Cooks, both of whom will be 30 on opening-day 2024. So if you’re smart, and you’ve seen the top two edge guys go 1-2, you draft into the strength of this crop, tackle and wideout. Ekwonu is versatile and athletic, not the mauler that the other two top tackles are, but a cornerstone and smart lineman who should be the long-time leader of a currently lousy group.

4. New York Jets: Sauce Gardner, cornerback, Cincinnati

I know lots of people I like and trust are going Kayvon Thibodeaux here, but I’m leery. (By the way, notice the trend of the 2022 first round? “I wouldn’t rule out Kayvon Thibodeaux here,” 614 GMs and other football people said in the last week. I know, I know.) Jets GM Joe Douglas loves safe, and he especially loves safe when the stud (or so we thought) first-round pick of 2020, tackle Mekhi Becton, has struggled and has a major question mark over his head entering this season. Gardner might not have the feet or hips of Derek Stingley, but he has the consistent production, is highly competitive, and in a division with Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs (and Gabriel Davis), and whatever Bill Belichick has in store for the Jets, that’s six games a year when a top corner will be invaluable. And the Jets don’t have one.

5. New York Giants: Charles Cross, offensive tackle, Mississippi State

Lots of spy versus spy here. By that I mean, at first blush, it’s logical to think GM Joe Schoen would want the best available right tackle here, with Andrew Thomas set on the left side. And because Cross was consistently on the left side in college, and Evan Neal started a season each at left tackle and right tackle, Neal’s a better fit here. And it may be Neal. Who wouldn’t want a 40-game starter at a great program in the SEC? But what many don’t know is the Giants put Cross through some work to judge whether he’d be a good right-tackle candidate and came away happy that he would be. Cross, one GM told me, is the best pass-protector of the three top tackles, a power-forward type (6-7 ½, 335) who will be competitive on day one against good edge rushers. If the Giants are comfortable enough with his ability to play the right side, this is a solid pick.

6. Carolina Panthers: Evan Neal, offensive tackle, Alabama

I don’t know what Carolina will do. The Panthers could go Kenny Pickett here, because unless they trade their first-round pick next year to move into position to acquire another high pick, they won’t pick again till day three of the draft; they don’t have a second- or third-rounder currently. I know what they should do, and that’s take Neal if he’s there. The Panthers are as needy on the line as they are at quarterback, and there’s definitely not a sure long-term QB in this draft. Neal started 15 games at left tackle, 12 at right tackle and 13 at left guard in his three Alabama seasons. There’s been some chatter about teams downgrading him because of medical issues, but I’m told at least three-quarters of the teams in the league are good with his health. I won’t be shocked if they go Pickett or Malik Willis here, but the smarter play is getting a solution with versatility at a major need area.

7. New York Giants: Kyle Hamilton, safety, Notre Dame

Just a warning: Don’t be shocked if the Giants go Thibodeaux here. Lots of stuff out in the ether right now about the Giants being down on Thibodeaux, but I can tell you they’re interested and have done a ton of work on him since his Pro Day. Also, the Giants would love to deal this pick and recoup a 2023 first-round pick and go down, say, 10 to 12 spots so they still could get a strong prospect plus be in prime position in the ’23 first round.

So the call here is Hamilton, despite the fact the Giants have a good young third-year safety in Xavier McKinney. New defensive coordinator Wink Martindale loves versatile safeties, which is precisely what Hamilton is. He’s huge (6-4, 220) and instinctive, and can blitz, play sideline to sideline and play down in the box as an extra linebacker. This pick would make the Giants’ secondary tough to gameplan against because of the versatility of McKinney and Hamilton.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Drake London, wide receiver, USC

Kind of the first “they could do five things here” pick. I’m going with the receiver I hear they love. Some teams knocked London for not running a 40 in the runup to the draft after a late-October broken ankle caused him to miss USC’s last four games; he’s estimated at about 4.5, which is not top-end speed. Everything else about his game is top-end. His average game in 2021 (15 targets, 11 catches, 136 yards, one TD) was notable. Everyone knew the ball was coming to him, and his competitiveness in multiple coverages caught eyes. To keep up that level of production game after game is something that separates London from the other receivers in this crop. As for the Falcons’ need at wideout: When the guys in three-receiver formations look to be Olamide Zaccheaus, Auden Tate and Damiere Byrd … I rest my case.

*9. Houston Texans: Garrett Wilson, wide receiver, Ohio State

*Projected Trade: Texans trade the 13th pick overall and an early third-round pick, 68th overall, to the Seahawks for the 9th selection.

And so here comes the run on receivers. Houston leapfrogs the Jets to get the franchise receiver for Davis Mills (who has a chance this year to win this job) or whoever the Texans pick next year to be the franchise passer. There’s a lot of love for Wilson in the league, even though he never led Ohio State in receiving in any of his three years and he’s a lean (6-0, 183) receiver who probably won’t play much heavier. He played the slot in 2020 and outside last year, so teams have plenty of tape to see him play all over the field in different offenses. Team like his ability to get open and to make things happen after the catch.

I look at Houston’s draft this way. Post-Watson, the Texans need some franchise players. If they come out of this draft with a long-term left tackle and a top receiver who can be counted on for the next five to eight years, it’s a profitable draft. Plus: GM Nick Caserio has the 37th overall pick, and he could use that on a second-level cornerback (Washington’s Kyler Gordon?) to attack another need area.

10. New York Jets: Jameson Williams, wide receiver, Alabama

The luxury for the constantly rebuilding Jets in taking a guy coming off a Jan. 10 ACL injury is that they don’t need to be in a hurry, and Williams, to many, was the draft’s top wideout before the injury. So whether he plays in late October or by Dec. 1 is not a make-or-break factor in what they do. Williams will be the number one receiver Zach Wilson needs to have a chance to be a good long-term quarterback. However the receivers line up on GM Joe Douglas’ board, getting one of the top three wideouts and Sauce Gardner in the first round would be a win for a franchise that hasn’t had enough of them.

11. Washington Commanders: Chris Olave, wide receiver, Ohio State

How cool would it be if it fell Wilson-Williams-Olave … teammates at Ohio State in 2019 and 2020 before Williams transferred to Alabama? They combined for 40 touchdowns last season in Columbus and Tuscaloosa. I wish I could figure a way for Olave to fall to Green Bay, because with his precision route-running and vaunted football smarts, he’d be a perfect 2022 fit for Aaron Rodgers. But I can’t see him lasting to the twenties. The fourth of four straight wideouts makes too much sense for Washington, which I think loves Drake London but will be thrilled with the sub-4.4 speed and top football IQ of Olave.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Derek Stingley, cornerback, LSU

There are good fits, and there is Stingley in Minnesota, where he’d be coached by his old defensive coordinator at LSU, secondary coach Daronte Jones, and he’d be mentored by former Tiger corner Patrick Peterson. This is a dream scenario for the Vikings. Stingley’s career fell off a cliff after a strong 2019 season, the same way the LSU program fell off a cliff in the last two years of Ed Orgeron. In ’19, Stingley battled in practice with J’Marr Chase and played high-level in games; some scouts thought he was the best corner in the country as a true freshman. Fate smiles on rookie Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah on his first NFL draft choice—if indeed he can pick Stingley. “I think he was the best NFL prospect in the country as a freshman,” one GM told me, “and his workout this spring showed a lot of [Darrelle] Revis to me.”

*13. Seattle Seahawks: Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon

*Projected Trade: Texans trade the 13th pick overall and an early third-round pick, 68th overall, to the Seahawks for the 9th selection.

Perfect Pete Carroll pick. Thibodeaux’s an LA kid, he’ll be supremely ticked off at not being the first edge off the board and falling this far, and Carroll knows how to feed into the mental game that fuels players. That, plus Thibodeaux would be the kind of top talent that the Seahawks never get to pick in the draft because they’re always picking at the bottom of the round, or later. Thibodeaux, if he works out, would be a good pick for a team devoid of a top-end pass-rusher, in a division with some serious passing games.

I’d like this pick, in this spot, for Seattle. I’m not alone. “Thibodeaux at 13 would be a coup for Seattle,” one GM told me Sunday when I apprised him of my diabolical plan to send the Oregon edge down the draft board.

14. Baltimore Ravens: Trevor Penning, offensive tackle, Northern Iowa

Kudos to Good Morning Football’s Peter Schrager for IDing Penning to the Ravens. The fourth tackle, clearly, on boards around the league would be a very good fit in Baltimore, where there’s a hole at right tackle (31-year-old Morgan Moses due to fill it as of today) and where left tackle Ronnie Stanley has struggled to stay healthy. Penning started 31 games at left tackle for Northern Iowa, and his size (6-7, 325) would play well on either side. I think the Ravens feel good enough about Stanley’s future to not be forced into taking a tackle here. Picking a corner (Trent McDuffie would be very good value) will not surprise me.

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Jordan Davis, defensive tackle, Georgia

Flip a coin here. Davis or Trent McDuffie. (And won’t WIP have a good laugh at my expense when the pick is neither guy.) But I’ll go with Davis because of his freakish athleticism at 335, his ability to impact the game all over the defensive front, and the prospect that he can succeed Fletcher Cox (32 in December) as the toughest guy to block on the Philadelphia defensive front.

The best thing I heard about Davis after his 4.78-second dash at the combine (at 341 pounds) was from one coach who thought Davis could play nose on first down and three-technique (the interior rush player) on second and third downs. That’s not common. He didn’t have great college production—19.5 tackles behind the line in 47 games at Georgia—and that would be a big concern to me. But someone will take him in the middle of the round, because he’s got such great potential.

16. New Orleans: Treylon Burks, wide receiver, Arkansas

He’d be the physical presence to play opposite the returning Michael Thomas in the Saints’ attack, which is desperate for a receiver. A few words about the Saints’ intentions here, in the wake of their trade with Philadelphia two weeks ago leaving them with 16 and 19, then 49 in round two. New Orleans was chided for adding a mid-first-round pick this year, with the feeling that this wasn’t a good year to have a second pick in the middle of a mediocre round. But the way the Saints look at is different. The Saints think they’re better than Tampa Bay, and winning the four regular-season matchups against Tom Brady by 11, 35, 9 and 9 points would buttress that argument. The Saints have had a top-five scoring defense two years in a row. They need another weapon on offense.

There’s also the feeling around the NFL that after losing Drew Brees one year and Sean Payton the next, the Saints are due to slip back. That is decidedly not the feeling in the building, nor with new coach Dennis Allen. Saints GM Mickey Loomis wants to give Allen the chance to be an impact playoff team with two or three big contributors in 2022. I cannot argue with that logic.

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Trent McDuffie, cornerback, Washington

If Jordan Davis is here, I bet the Chargers are tempted. Brandon Staley loves very big, very athletic people on his front seven. But the third corner off the board would be more valuable to the Chargers, I think, and give them a formidable threesome (J.C. Jackson, Asante Samuel Jr., McDuffie) to attack the Mahomes/Wilson/Carr trio of top QBs on the Chargers’ schedule every year.

I looked into the buzz that the Chargers would try to move up to get a Trevor Penning, a long-term bookend for Rashawn Slater to protect Justin Herbert. It’s possible, because the Ravens are always amenable to dealing down when there’s not one player they’re desperate for.

*18. Green Bay Packers: Jahan Dotson, wide receiver, Penn State

*Projected Trade: Eagles trade the 18th pick to the Packers for the 22nd pick and a late third-round pick, 92nd overall.

Surprising for the sixth receiver in the round, if this is how it goes. Dotson is a better version of Randall Cobb, with maybe the best hands in the draft. Started 38 games and had 183 catches at Penn State. The knock on Dotson is he’s not as physically strong as his peers, and he’ll need to be feistier and a little bulkier to be a consistent weapon for Aaron Rodgers.

All along, I tried everything I could to get Chris Olave to the Packers. Barring a huge tradeup that might cost Brian Gutekunst next year’s first-round pick, it’s hard to see one of the top four receivers landing in Green Bay. Dotson’s a good alternative. He’s just not Olave.

19. New Orleans Saints: Devonte Wyatt, defensive tackle, Georgia

It’s either reach for CB4 or take one of the best two defensive tackles in the class and get the corner in the middle of the second round. This is what I’d do. Wyatt is probably the best three-technique in this class, and, like Travon Walker, was a versatile fit on the Georgia front. I bet Cam Jordan would lead the parade for Wyatt, knowing that attention Wyatt would draw in the middle of the line would give Jordan more chances to impact the game on the edge. Amazing: Georgia could have three defensive front players (Walker, Davis, Wyatt) get drafted in the top 20, three players who played a lot on the interior. I’d love to know if that ever happened before.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett, quarterback, Pitt

Upset special: Pickett over Malik Willis—and it’s a gut feeling more than anything else. How cool would it be if the Steelers, who passed on Pitt’s Dan Marino is 1983 when a successor to Terry Bradshaw was desperately needed (they picked Gabe Rivera) would 39 years later take Pitt’s Pickett to be the long-term sub for Ben Roethlisberger? Pretty cool to think Pickett, who for the entirety of his college career has walked into the door to the right of the Steelers/Pitt complex on the South side of the gritty city, might walk into the left door as a pro now.

We’ve gotten so used to excoriating any team that would even think of drafting a quarterback high this year that we haven’t just sat back and considered, “Maybe Kenny Pickett is actually, you know, good.” It’s true that you can find two or three throws that any quarterback makes to make him seem really good or really bad.

Could it be Willis here? Yes, it could. I wouldn’t he surprised. But I’ve heard the Steelers think Pickett’s more likely to succeed as a pro.

21. New England Patriots: Bernhard Raimann, offensive tackle, Central Michigan

Toyed with Nakobe Dean. Toyed with Devin Lloyd. Toyed with Jermaine Johnson. Toyed with Lewis Cine, who is Bill Belichick’s kind of player. Even toyed with the corner who might go around 45th overall, Kyler Gordon. But the secondary tackle market is better than the secondary edge or corner market, for sure.

Raimann is one of the best stories in this draft, by far. Austrian kid who first played football on a club team in Vienna at 14. As a high school exchange student, he played receiver on his Michigan high school team for a year. Back to Austria to finish high school. Bitten by the football bug. Committed to Central Michigan for the 2017 season—but had to fulfill a six-month Austrian military commitment, so he didn’t start working with the team till 2018. Tight end for two years. Then the pandemic. When football practice began again, Raimann was moved to tackle as a 290-pound player, and he started 18 games at left tackle in the last 1.5 seasons.

Big, big upside—and the Patriots can likely use 2022 as a developmental year if they pick him. Great point by Daniel Jeremiah: “Reminds me of the Sebastian Vollmer pick.” The native of Germany played college football at Houston, and was a second-round pick of the Pats in 2009—and played on two Super Bowl-winning teams. The Patriots would take a replay of that, as would Mac Jones.

*22. Philadelphia Eagles: Devin Lloyd, linebacker, Utah

*Projected Trade: Eagles trade the 18th pick to the Packers for the 22nd pick and a late third-round pick, 92nd overall.

Dart throw. Howie Roseman could trade down again here. The receiver and corner markets, both of which he needs to hit before the end of day two, don’t align with what’s left on the board in this mock. Lloyd had experience doing everything in 32 starts over three Utah seasons. His 43 career tackles for loss show he’s a play-wrecker in the run game too.

One other point about Lloyd, wherever he goes: NFL Network will have an emotional feature story Thursday night about the two Utah players lost to gun violence in 2021. I’m told Lloyd’s words will be emotional and heavy in the piece—he was the Utah captain who had a huge burden on his shoulders helping his teammates get through the double-ordeal.

23. Arizona Cardinals: Jermaine Johnson, edge, Florida State

I think the Cards would love to get another weapon for Kyler Murray, and if I were GM Steve Keim I’d define that weapon differently. I’d be looking just as fervently at the offensive line that put Murray under so much pressure last season; fixing his protection is as important as getting him a home-run threat—especially when there are no more home-run threats left now the way I mock it.

So why Johnson here? Because of the big need to find a pass-rusher two years after the departure of Haason Reddick and a month after the loss of Chandler Jones. I understand the pick, but I’d probably pick Zion Johnson instead.

24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Linderbaum, center, Iowa

Tea leaves pick, because of Dallas’ love of building the offensive line (Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Tyron Smith); because of high regard for Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz; and because Linderbaum is rated consistently the best center and a top-20 overall prospect on many boards. Which, for a guy who plays only one position, is saying something. Linderbaum is a rock-solid center, with 35 starts at the position over the past three years. He’s a little undersized for NFL center (6-2, 298) and doesn’t have position versatility—at least not yet. But he’s a physical, competitive player with the Ferentz pedigree. Iowa turns out terrific offensive linemen.

25. Buffalo Bills: Zion Johnson, offensive lineman, Boston College

One of the very few issues that Buffalo has is at guard where Rodger Saffold is due to start at right guard this year at age 34 and the undrafted Ryan Bates is the likely left guard. To me, Johnson’s the perfect call here because even if Saffold and Bates turn out great in 2022, it seems a short-term fix. In five college seasons—two years at Davidson, one at BC after transferring—Johnson started 49 games. Give me a guy with 36 starts at guard and 13 at left tackle (in the ACC). Give me a guy who was a two-year captain after transferring. Give me a guy who never missed a game in five college seasons due to injury (58 games played in all). He’s a likely interior lineman, which lessens his value slightly. But his intelligence, football acumen and experience gives NFL GMs confidence Johnson can be a starter in 2022.

26. Tennessee Titans: Tyler Smith, offensive tackle, Tulsa

I chickened out. Originally I penciled in: Malik Willis, quarterback, Liberty. Thought process: Titans earn top seed in AFC playoffs. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill throws three picks in the first playoff game, including one in the final minute that allows Cincinnati to kick a field goal and knock Tennessee out of the playoffs. Coach, GM sign extensions. Building has hard time getting over toothless loss to Cincinnati. Tannehill, because of onerous contract cap number in 2022, has to be kept for this season but if he is mediocre, Titans can move on next March. If he is mediocre, maybe Titans can get a rookie ready to play by Thanksgiving this year.

As you can see, some real science was used to make that choice. But the Titans have not been front and center at the QB workouts this spring. And with left tackle Taylor Lewan turning 31 in July, it’s time to invest in the tackle market—particularly after the Isaiah Wilson first-round debacle of two years ago. They’ve got to feel Smith is a sure thing here. 

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: David Ojabo, edge, Michigan

Ojabo tore his Achilles at the Michigan Pro Day and likely will not play football in 2022. Before the injury, he was considered a prospect to go somewhere between seven and 15. I don’t know that he’ll get picked in the first, but I do know four teams are intently interested in him. One is having some significant medical tests done on him in the next two days, to see how his recovery is progressing and to judge whether he can play maybe very late this season or, if not, how healthy he will be a year from now.

Ojabo was the complement to Aidan Hutchinson on the Michigan defensive front, and his will and tenacity are much admired. If you’re the Bucs, you might not need the edge play of Ojabo this year. But with veteran rusher Shaq Barrett due to be 31 next year and the unsigned Jason Pierre Paul likely a one-year play this year if that, a duo of Ojabo and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka for the future is something the Bucs would love to have going forward.

28. Green Bay Packers: Arnold Ebiketie, edge, Penn State

This has shades of a late-first-round Penn State riser at edge from last year, Odafe Oweh. Ebiketie, a native of Cameroon, moved to the Washington area when his dad got a job at the Cameroon Embassy. Ebiketie fell in love with football. And now, with the Pack having lost Za’Darius Smith to the casualties of the cap, a promising edge player would fit well.

I do make this proviso: The Packers may need this pick, or one of two in the second round, to move up significantly to take a receiver to replace Davante Adams. This pick could be one of the most interesting in the round because of all the directions GM Brian Gutekunst could go. He could move way up to target a Chris Olave around 10th, or he could (as I predict) move up a lesser number of spots to take a lesser receiver. Green Bay’s a fascinating team in round 1.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Christian Watson, wide receiver, North Dakota State

I am going to have Kansas City keep both picks here, 29 and 30, because I don’t have a great idea of what to do with them … unless GM Brett Veach gets very bold and uses both and maybe something more to move up in range to get one of the best receivers in the draft. Kansas City lost Tyreek Hill and replaced him with lesser free agents; Green Bay lost Davante Adams and replaced him with no one except Sammy Watkins. Both teams are likely to try to make a score in the draft at receiver.

If the Chiefs don’t put a ransom together to move up to the eight-to-12 area of the first round, I think the 6-4 and blossoming Watson is a strong play here. He runs sub-4.4, he’s played in significant bad weather, and he averaged a huge 20.4 yards per catch against lesser competition. He could be the kind of receiver Andy Reid lets learn and play a small role this year, while getting him ready for 2023. The reward could be good.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Lewis Cine, safety, Georgia

One of the great stories in this draft, and one of the players scouts like the most. Cine (pronounced “Seen”) was born in Haiti to a 16-year-old mom; it’s why he wore “16” at Georgia. His early life was split between Haiti and Florida, and he moved to Massachusetts to be with his dad for a few years, then finished high school in Dallas. That’s where he was tutored by Deion Sanders as a player and became a big-time recruit. At 6-2 ¼ and 200 pounds, he runs a 4.37 40-yard dash and hits like a strong safety. “What a lot of us like about him is he’s a natural leader, and he played his best in the biggest games,” said one GM. That includes being the defensive MVP in the national championship game against Alabama. Kansas City would be a good spot for him, and he could make a 2022 impact.

31. Cincinnati Bengals: Trey McBride, tight end, Colorado State

Warning: The Bengals will have options to trade out of this pick, and they’re a more willing trade team on draft weekend than they used to be. This is a golden spot to trade up and get the fifth-year luxury that a late first-round pick would provide, particularly with a team seeing quarterbacks remaining on the board. (First-round picks are in team control pre-free-agency for five years; second-rounders, four years.)

As for the tight end need, the Bengals are still in mourning after losing valuable starter C.J. Uzomah and his 965 snaps last year to the Jets in free agency. The Bengals did sign Hayden Hurst, but the former first-round Raven will be playing for his third team in four years; I doubt he’s the every-down tight end Cincinnati lost in Uzomah. McBride’s a versatile player with an excellent résumé at Colorado State as an inline blocker and a possession receiver. He caught a team-high 90 balls last year in a run-first offense. “McBride would be a classic Mike Brown pick,” one veteran GM told me. “He likes to use draft choices to fill holes.”

*32. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Corral, quarterback, Ole Miss

*Projected Trade: Lions trade the 32nd pick to the Falcons for a second-round pick this year (43rd overall) and a second-round pick in 2023.

This is all about a team, Atlanta, believing in a quarterback this year, and investing a chunk of draft capital in him that isn’t cost-prohibitive. (I hear the Falcons like Corral.) If you think you might have a long-term quarterback and it costs you two second-round picks, is that really a major cost? No, it’s not. This pick is not something I’m convinced about. It’s more about the concept of it. If a team wants a quarterback but isn’t positive about this group, it can still invest in one. It’s a conservative investment, keeping in mind that quarterbacks don’t come cheap. If you really want Corral or Malik Willis or Desmond Ridder, wouldn’t you think a price of two second-round picks would be worth the risk?