CHICAGO

QB CALEB WILLIAMS plays in the style of QB PATRICK MAHOMES.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

Michael Jordan revolutionized basketball by showing everyone things we didn’t previously realize the human body could do. Patrick Mahomes has done that for quarterbacks.

It’s something Simms and I said on PFT Live from the moment Mahomes took the NFL by storm. His off-schedule, nutty-platform, rubber-armed throws have shown plenty of young football quarterbacks what they can do — if they have the ability to do it.

Enter Caleb Williams. He was only 16 when Mahomes arrived on the scene. Williams saw what Mahomes can do, and Williams was able to incorporate that into his own game.

It helped that he’s physically able to do it. It also helped that Williams could see how it can go for someone who can do it.

And we’re now seeing it in the NFL. We saw it on Saturday. Whether it’s rolling left and lofting a deep ball with touch to receiver Rome Odunze or rolling right and firing a piss missile to the back corner of the end zone (Odunze had stepped out of bounds) or running to the left and using the threat of a cobra-strike throw to freeze defenders just enough so that he could weave through them for a touchdown on the ground, Williams is the first player since Mahomes got to the NFL to play like Mahomes.

Yes, there’s a long way to go and much work to be done. But the skills are obvious, and the similarities to Mahomes’s playing style are impossible to miss.

In 20 days, we’ll see how that translates to a game that counts, when the Titans come to town for Week 1. And then we all get to see it the following Sunday night, when Williams goes to Houston to face the Texans and C.J. Stroud on NBC and Peacock.

MINNESOTA

The Vikings have signed CB STEPHON GILMORE.  Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

Veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore found a home Sunday with the Minnesota Vikings, a team that has been scouring the free agent and trade markets this summer to fortify a position that has been decimated by injury and tragedy.

Gilmore and the Vikings have agreed to a one-year contract worth up to $10 million with $7 million guaranteed, his agent, Jason Chayut of Sportstars Inc., told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. A two-time first-team All-Pro, Gilmore is the fifth — and by far most significant — cornerback acquisition the Vikings have made this summer.

He will reunite with Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who was on the New England Patriots’ coaching staff for two of Gilmore’s seasons with that team. Flores was the Patriots’ defensive playcaller in 2018 when Gilmore received his first All-Pro nod.

Gilmore, who turns 34 next month, had been unsigned since finishing a strong 2023 season with the Dallas Cowboys. He had offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum and had visited the Vikings’ facility Monday. After the visit, coach Kevin O’Connell said: “I’ve had a ton of respect in Stephon Gilmore’s career, playing against him. This is a guy that’s done it at a really high level for a long time.”

The acquisition makes clear that the Vikings are not writing off the 2024 season even after losing rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy to a right knee injury last week. ESPN’s Football Power Index was projecting them to win 6.8 games before the Gilmore acquisition.

The Vikings finished their spring practices in June with plans to combine veterans Shaquill Griffin and Byron Murphy Jr. with a group of young cornerbacks that included Akayleb Evans, Mekhi Blackmon, Andrew Booth Jr. and rookie fourth-round pick Khyree Jackson.

But Jackson was killed in a July 6 car crash. Blackmon tore an ACL on the first day of training camp, Griffin suffered a hamstring injury on the second day of camp, and Booth was traded Aug. 9 to the Cowboys.

The Vikings have since signed veterans Duke Shelley, Jacobi Francis and Fabian Moreau and acquired Nahshon Wright from the Cowboys in the Booth trade. Midway through camp, O’Connell said the flurry of moves had made him “feel good about the numbers to have competitive practices and not tax those guys as they’re all competing,” but he added: “It’s a fluid thing.”

NEW YORK GIANTS

Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com says it is an overreaction to say that QB DANIEL JONES played himself out of his starting job with his bad preseason debut.  But it was bad.

Daniel Jones will not be the Giants’ starter come Week 1

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Jones played in his first game since tearing his ACL last November and the results didn’t go well. He almost threw an interception on his first throw back from the injury — and did throw two interceptions on his first three drives. Jones really looked bad trying to avoid a safety that resulted in an interception returned for a touchdown, but settled in to finish 11 of 18 for 138 yards in his half of action.

Drew Lock is injured and Tommy DeVito is the third-string quarterback. Jones’ job shouldn’t be in jeopardy in the slightest, no matter how bad he performs this preseason. Jones will start the season, but will be finish it?

The Giants do have to be concerned how poor Jones looked in his preseason debut.

ATLANTA

The Falcons did not play either of their top two QBs against the Ravens on Saturday night.  Not even rookie QB MICHAEL PENIX, Jr.  Gilberto Manzano of SI.com is among those puzzled:

The conspiracy theories swirled after Michael Penix Jr. didn’t play in the Falcons’ preseason matchup against the Baltimore Ravens.

Are the Falcons worried about Kirk Cousins not being fully recovered from his Achilles injury and need Penix healthy to start the season? Or did Atlanta get spooked seeing the Minnesota Vikings lose J.J. McCarthy to a season-ending knee injury?

Regardless, Falcons coach Raheem Morris had a simple explanation, saying he had seen enough from Penix in his preseason debut and didn’t need the rookie quarterback to play in the final two exhibitions. From that response, it sounds as if Morris’s top priority is keeping his top two signal-callers healthy heading into the regular season, which is understandable given all the injuries quarterbacks have sustained in the past year.

However, Penix could have used the preseason reps. He might not play the entire season if it all goes well for Cousins during his first season in Atlanta. And with Cousins signing a lucrative four-year, $180 million contract to leave the Vikings and join the Falcons, it could be multiple seasons before Penix becomes the full-time starter.

On the other hand, Penix is one Cousins injury away from being thrust in as the starter, giving the Falcons more reasons to play him in August. Even Caleb Williams, the top pick in the 2024 draft, had his highs and lows during the Chicago Bears’ preseason matchup vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.

Game experience is vital for building consistency on the field, but the Falcons at least chose a good week to add more quarterback drama. They appear to be favorites to win the NFC South after signing safety Justin Simmons and trading for edge rusher Matthew Judon.

QB TAYLOR HEINICKE played into the third quarter, then someone named QB JOHN PADDOCK finished up.

Paddock started in 2022, his fourth season at Ball State, and threw for 2,719 yards and 18 TDs.  He then walked on at Illinois in ’23 and was the backup until the 9^th game.  A starter by injury on 11/11 vs Indiana, he passed for 504 yards and 4 TDs in an overtime win, then had okay numbers in losses the next two weeks.

CAROLINA

Jeff Kerr is puzzled why the Panthers have acted like QB BRYCE YOUNG is an elite starting QB who doesn’t need to play in the preseason:

The Panthers are making a massive mistake sitting Bryce Young

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Another baffling decision by an NFC South team this preseason. Young was arguably the worst quarterback in football last season and had one of the worst rookie seasons in history. One would think the preseason under a new coach and new offense would benefit a young quarterback who needs a fresh start like Young.

How is Young supposed to get any confidence if he’s not playing in preseason games against different defenses? The Panthers did have a joint practice with the New York Jets this past week, so the starters sitting isn’t much of a surprise. Would it hurt Carolina to give Young a few series and have him get some live game reps in?

Young wasn’t ready in his rookie year. How can he be ready if the Panthers don’t allow him to play?

NEW ORLEANS

An update on CB KOOL-AID McKINSTRY from Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Saints first-round pick Kool-Aid McKinstry left Sunday’s game after getting injured on the opening drive and he did not return to the matchup against the 49ers.

Head coach Dennis Allen offered an update on McKinstry’s condition after the game and said that the cornerback hurt his knee before adding that it doesn’t look like it will be an extended absence for the rookie.

“He has a knee injury, I think we avoided anything serious,” Allen said, via Jeremy Trottier of USAToday.com. “Now, what kind of time we are looking at, I really have no idea. But I think we escaped the game, at least on initial report, without any major injuries.”

More clarity about the timeline for McKinstry’s return should come in the near future and he’s got more than two weeks to recover before the season opener against the Panthers.

TAMPA BAY

We decided to put Mike Florio’s post on the new biography of QB AARON RODGERS in TAMPA BAY.  Read on to find out why:

Biographies often can be plodding efforts, especially in the early chapters. It’s the nature of the beast; they typically begin with mundane details about where grandparents grew up and how they met. (Although, for this one, the tales of Rodgers’s grandfather’s time as a bomber pilot and prisoner of war crack the usual mold.)

Sometimes, the stories regarding grandparents and parents shed real light on the inherent traits of the subject of the book. Sometimes, they don’t. Regardless, it’s not a true bio if it doesn’t delve into things that don’t exactly jump off the page.

The bio then tracks through the early years. The upbringing. How the person became who the person became. When he knew they could become what he became. Again, it can feel tedious at times. Again, that’s what make biographies what they are. It’s the whole story, driven by facts and recollections and crafted by the person who harvested them without any effort to jam the truth into connective tissue that runs from page to page, chapter to chapter.

Thus, like many biographies, Out of the Darkness: The Mystery of Aaron Rodgers takes a while to get going. The first 100 pages aren’t particularly mysterious, or compelling. He was part prodigy, part late-bloomer. Part overachiever, part underachiever. His path to pro football was unconventional not by choice but by circumstance. Anyone who follows pro football closely basically knew that.

Then comes the sixth chapter. The Plunge. For the first time in the week or so since getting a copy of the book, I ripped through a full segment in one sitting. Along the way, the 24 pages devoted to his failed effort to persuade the 49ers to make him the first pick in the draft and his ensuing slide out of the top 20 revealed plenty of intriguing details.

Here’s one. After a private, pre-draft workout that included a cameo appearance from receiver Jerry Rice, who ran routers for Rodgers, Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden told Rodgers this: “If you’re there at five, we’re taking you.”

It didn’t happen, obviously. Rodgers learned of that decision before the draft, when then-Bucs G.M. Bruce Allen told agent Mike Sullivan that Rodgers would not be the selection, Gruden’s promise notwithstanding.

In fact, Rodgers and his family knew the plunge was coming before it played out. The late Gil Brandt, who picked the players to invite to the draft based on the belief they’d go early, learned as the process grew closer that, of the six players in the green room, Rodgers would be the last man sitting — for a while.

Along the way, first-year Dolphins coach Nick Saban opted for a running back at No. 2; according to the book, Saban (who would pass on Drew Brees a year later and blame the doctors for it) loved Alex Smith but didn’t like Rodgers at pick No. 2. (Saban took running back Ronnie Brown.) The Browns opted not to pair Rodgers with fellow Jeff Tedford pupil Trent Dilfer. (Receiver Braylon Edwards was the pick.) The Bears, two years after using a first-round pick on Rex Grossman, went with running back Cedric Benson.

The Bucs picked running back Cadillac Williams, the Titans took cornerback Adam “Pacman” Jones, the Vikings (whose starting quarterback, Daunte Culpepper, had a franchise-quarterback performance in 2004 and who had just traded Randy Moss) opted for receiver Troy Williamson.

Rodgers kept plummeting. It got so bad at one point that the 49ers actually considered the possibility of picking him in round two and letting Smith and Rodgers fight it out for the starting job before trading the loser.

The Packers, obviously, ended it at No. 24. It wasn’t easy; the coaches wanted someone who would help the team win during the remaining years with Brett Favre, but G.M. Ted Thompson insisted on trusting the board.

The fans weren’t happy with the decision, either. Those assembled in the atrium at Lambeau Field for the event booed so loudly that team officials “could feel the walls of their draft room reverberate from the din.”

The decision also prompted a phone call from Favre, which began with a three-word question: “What the fuck?”

Although Favre and Rodgers never had much in common, they surely had the same feeling after the first 24 picks played out.

These are the three quarterbacks who did play for Gruden and the Bucs in 2005:

Luke McCown

Tim Rattay

Chris Simms

We spotted this name on the Bucs coaching staff –

Offensive quality control – Kyle Shanahan

DENVER

Did Sean Payton strike gold with QB BO NIX?  Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:

Caleb Williams is probably the most impressive rookie quarterback this preseason, but Bo Nix has a case. Nix was very sharp on Sunday night for the second straight game. He had surprising velocity on some of his throws and looked very good throwing on the move. He completed 8-of-9 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown. Nix was a selection that was criticized by many when Denver took him 12th in the NFL Draft, but he looks comfortable in Sean Payton’s offense. One of the benefits of drafting Nix was his 61 career college starts. He should have been ready to play right away.

Nix has looked good in both preseason games and it seems inevitable he’s named the starting quarterback for the regular-season opener. That’s something Drake Maye and Michael Penix Jr., drafted higher than Nix, won’t be able to say. (J.J. McCarthy was unlikely to start Week 1 too, but his season-ending knee injury made that decision for the Vikings.)

Payton didn’t name a starter after Sunday night’s game, but said he thought Nix played well.

“I thought he was sharp,” Payton said, according to the team’s transcript. “Obviously, I think he was eight for nine [on completions]. He does a good job of distributing the football, understanding the zones, man to man, what coverage concepts we’re getting. Overall, I was pleased.”

PITTSBURGH

The Steelers new offense – OC Arthur Smith with QBs RUSSELL WILSON and JUSTIN FIELDS – hasn’t done much.  Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com:

For the second week in a row, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ first-unit offense failed to put any points on the board as the team dropped Saturday night’s preseason game to the Buffalo Bills 9-3.

This time, though, Russell Wilson — making his preseason debut — led the unit to its scoreless outing in five series, while Justin Fields’ unit mustered only a field goal in five series of its own.

Wilson, 35, completed 8 of 10 attempts for 47 yards over five series. But the starting offensive line gave up three sacks in the first three series for a loss of 21 yards, and the unit picked up only one first down while averaging a paltry 1.6 yards per play.

“We didn’t do a good enough job of protecting the quarterback,” coach Mike Tomlin said. “We’ve got to do a better job in pass protection than we did — not only in possession downs but just in general. I was really up-front with the group about it in that regard, that can’t be a problem for us.”

Playing right tackle, former first-round pick Broderick Jones gave up two of the sacks on Saturday night. Rookie right tackle Troy Fautanu, who sustained a knee injury in the previous game, didn’t play against the Bills. Jones declined interview requests after the game.

Because the Steelers failed to sustain drives with Wilson at quarterback, Tomlin said it was difficult to evaluate the veteran’s performance.

“It’s somewhat of an incomplete study because you just don’t get a chance to see them operate or us operate or us establish rhythm and personality when you’re not winning possession downs,” Tomlin said.

Wilson’s best throw of the day came on third-and-2 during his final series when he hit Van Jefferson over the middle for an 11-yard gain. That drive, though, stalled out a couple of plays later, and kicker Chris Boswell missed a 52-yard field goal.

“I was trying to play in rhythm, trying to get the ball out when we could and then also just trying to hang in there on the third down,” Wilson said, evaluating his performance in the pocket.

Wilson, who injured his calf on the eve of training camp, said he felt “great” during the game.

“I felt strong,” Wilson said. “I wasn’t thinking about [my calf]. Anytime you have an injury, sometimes if you’re worried about it, you’re in the back of your mind. You’re thinking about it. Didn’t feel that at all really the past week or so. And I felt really good this past week and everything else. And so to play out there tonight just to get back out there in the black and gold was really cool.”

Prior to Saturday night’s game, Tomlin told the Steelers’ website that the competition between Fields and Wilson would heat up now that Wilson is back from his calf injury. When asked after the game what he needed to do to win the competition, Wilson expressed confidence in his abilities.

“I think the best thing that I can do, personally, is just stay consistent in an approach,” Wilson said. “Had a little bump in the road with my calf. But the best part is I was out there tonight and playing. … And I know what I can do when I’m a hundred percent, I’m getting close.”

Once Wilson exited following his fifth series, Fields took over and finished the game. Though Fields led the second unit to just three points prior to halftime, his group racked up 160 yards of offense and averaged 4.1 yards per play. Fields’ legs were a difference-maker as the quarterback extended plays and picked up yards with his feet.

Not only did Fields lead the team with 92 passing yards on 11 of 17 attempts, but he also led the Steelers with 42 rushing yards on eight carries — including a 20-yard scamper in a two-minute drill.

MIAMI

QB TUA TAGOVIALOA opens up about his first NFL head coach, Brian Flores.  John Breech of CBSSports.com:

Tua Tagovailoa has played for two different head coaches during his four-year career in the NFL, and if you want to know which one he likes better, well, it’s pretty clear.

Apparently, Tagovailoa hated playing for former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores, who was in Miami for two seasons with Tagovailoa (2020-21). During a recent interview on “The Dan LeBetard show with Stugotz,” Tagovailoa was asked to compare his current head coach, Mike McDaniel, with Flores, and the normally reserved Tagovailoa used that opportunity to go off on his old coach.

“To put it in the simplest terms, if you woke up every morning and I told you that you suck at what you did, that you don’t belong doing what you do, that you shouldn’t be here, that this guy should be here, that you haven’t earned this,” Tagovailoa said, describing Flores’ coaching style. “And then you have somebody else come in and tell you, ‘Dude, you are the best fit for this. You’re accurate. You’re the best whatever, you’re this, you’re that.’ How would it make you feel listening to one or the other?”

Based on Tagovailoa’s answer, McDaniel is an extremely positive coach while Flores apparently liked to use negative reinforcement to try and motivate his players, which didn’t work so well for him in Miami.

Tagovailoa had a tumultuous two years with Flores. After being selected with the fifth overall pick, Tagovailoa didn’t start right away. Flores decided to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick to open the 2020 season and that decision kept Tagovailoa on the bench until nearly halfway through the year. Even after getting the starting job, Tagovailoa still had to fight to keep it. Flores benched him twice during the 2020 season in favor of Fitzpatrick.

In 2021, things didn’t get much better with Flores spending most of the offseason trying to replace Tagovailoa with Deshaun Watson, who was on the trade block. 

Flores spent 11 seasons in New England before being hired as the Dolphins head coach in 2019, and it’s pretty obvious he was taking some of his coaching cues out of the Bill Belichick handbook. Belichick was famous for ripping Tom Brady during Patriots’ film sessions, and it seems that Flores clearly took that mindset with him to Miami.

The problem with that is that not everyone responds the same way to that kind of reinforcement. Tagovailoa definitely was not a fan of how Flores treated him.

“You hear it and you hear it — regardless of what is, the good or the bad — and you hear it more and more and you start to actually believe that,” Tagovailoa said. “I don’t care who you are, you could be the president of the United States, you have a terrible person who’s telling you things that you don’t want to hear or probably shouldn’t be hearing, you’re going to start to believe that about yourself. That’s sort of what ended up happening. It’s basically been two years of training that out.”

Flores got fired after the 2021 season and that’s when the Dolphins brought in McDaniel. In two seasons under McDaniel, Tagovailoa has flourished, including last year, when he led the NFL in passing yards with 4,624, which led to his first career Pro Bowl nod.

Tagovailoa has been so good that the Dolphins recently rewarded him with four-year, $212.4 million extension that included $167 million in guarantees. Tagovailoa is now going to be in Miami for the long term, which is something that may not have happened if Flores had never been fired.

THIS AND THAT

PROJECTED AFC WIN TOTALS

From Austin Mock of The Athletic who says it is a three-way dogfight in the AFC East:

Does anyone in the AFC West have a chance of dethroning Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? Are the Buffalo Bills still the kings of the AFC East? In less than three weeks, we’ll start to get our answers.

But in the meantime, with rosters close to finalized, it’s time for us to fire up my NFL Projection Model to get the lay of the land for the upcoming NFL season. Today, we’ll look at the projected win totals for every team in the AFC to see what we can expect from this conference during the 2024 season. We’ll examine the NFC on Tuesday.

As a quick reminder, my NFL Projection model takes play-by-play data and creates an offensive and defensive projection for each team. From there, I simulate every game this season — and repeat this process 100,000 times — to see how many games a team is likely to win, how often they make the playoffs or win their division and even win the Super Bowl. But today, we’re just focused on win totals.

NFL Projection Model: AFC

Kansas City Chiefs                   11.3

Cincinnati Bengals                   10.2

Baltimore Ravens                    10.2

Buffalo Bills                               9.7  

New York Jets                          9.6

Miami Dolphins                        9.5

Houston Texans                      9.0

Los Angeles Chargers             8.9

Cleveland Browns                    8.7

Jacksonville Jaguars               8.1

Pittsburgh Steelers                  7.6

Indianapolis Colts                      7.5

Las Vegas Raiders                  7.3

Tennessee Titans                    6.8

New England Patriots              6.7

Denver Broncos                       6.0

AFC East

The Bills have won four consecutive AFC East titles, but after an offseason of roster turnover, highlighted by trading wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, there has been some doubt about Buffalo’s chances to make it a five-peat.

Well, not according to my model.

Sure, it’s closer than in years past, but the Bills are still the team to beat in the East. Josh Allen is the best non-Mahomes quarterback in the NFL, and the other two division contenders still have questions.

Miami just signed Tua Tagovailoa to a mega-extension, but the Dolphins offense hasn’t been able to get it done against quality competition. The New York Jets are looking to get a full season out of a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but he’s on the wrong side of 40 and coming off an Achilles tear, so what’s a realistic expectation? Yes, the defense should be elite, but I still have concerns about the offense. And for what it’s worth, the Indianapolis Colts have won as many AFC East titles as the Jets since 1999 despite playing in the AFC South since 2002. The analysis of this division simply comes down to whether you believe the Jets can squeeze more out of Rodgers or if the Dolphins can get more out of Tagovailoa to knock off the Bills. My model would rather bet on Allen elevating the Buffalo offense as they defend the throne.

AFC North

You won’t find a division race closer at the top than the AFC North. My model has the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals separated by just 0.03 wins, favoring the Bengals.

While the model acknowledges Baltimore has the better roster, the Ravens have to play a first-place schedule while the Bengals benefit from a fourth-place slate.

The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers round out the bottom of the division, as my model expects both teams to regress from last year’s success. Both still have questions at quarterback and rely on great defenses. That’s not a sound strategy year to year. Eventually, an offense needs to show up for you to consistently make the playoffs and find postseason success. One step further, the Browns went 6-2 in one-score games last year, while the Steelers went 9-2. Safe to say Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s 17-year streak of .500-or-better records is in jeopardy.

AFC South

This might be the most fun division in the AFC this season. Young, exciting quarterbacks with upside lead each team.

C.J. Stroud led the Houston Texans to the division crown last year. While he delivered a historic rookie season, it’s hard to know whether there will be a second-year jump because of how good he was last year. Bear in mind, the Texans are going from playing a fourth-place schedule to a first-place schedule. That’s going to make life more difficult.

The Jacksonville Jaguars know they have something special in Trevor Lawrence, but they haven’t been able to put it all together. Still, I think they’re firmly the second-best team in the division but with a large range of outcomes.

Next, there’s the Indianapolis Colts with Anthony Richardson and the Tennessee Titans with Will Levis. We didn’t get a huge sample size from either during their rookie seasons, but they did enough to inspire hope. This is the one AFC division in which I can envision each team coming out on top. However, until another quarterback steps up to Stroud’s level, the Texans deserve the early nod as the favorite.

AFC West

The AFC West — and well, the AFC — goes through Kansas City. The Chiefs showed last year they don’t even need home-field advantage to win the AFC, and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the conference.

It’s an easy game when you have the league’s best quarterback in Mahomes, while two teams in the division (Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos) aren’t expected to be playoff contenders. That’s an easy road to at least one home playoff game for the Chiefs.

The team I haven’t mentioned so far is the Los Angeles Chargers, who made the splash of the offseason by hiring Jim Harbaugh away from Michigan. Look, Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s gone, and I expect more of the same since he will have Justin Herbert conducting his physical offensive attack. But a plantar fascia injury to Herbert early in training camp limits what their ceiling might be. They’re in the middle of a roster turnover transition period — Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler left in the offseason — but a healthy Herbert with Harbaugh on the sidelines should give them at least a shot at knocking the Chiefs off the top spot.

BILL BARNWELL’S 5 TEAMS TO IMPROVE

Bill Barnwell has 5 teams he thinks will improve their W-L record significantly.  Three of them were pretty bad last year, but one was the Super Bowl champ:

I’ve been doing some version of this feature in picking specific teams to improve and decline for ESPN going back through the 2017 season. Over that time frame, the results have been pretty good! Twenty-seven of the 33 teams I’ve picked to improve in this space have come through and produced better win-loss records than they had in the prior season. Those teams have improved by an average of 3.3 wins per 17 games. (Much of the data for this column dates back as far as 1989, which means a lot of weird numbers after adjusting for the 17-game slate.)

Last year’s column went 4-0. The Browns and Rams were two teams that took unexpected trips to the postseason, while the Broncos and Bears nearly doubled their combined win total. The four teams went from a combined record of 20-48 in 2022 to 36-32 last season.

So, with five teams to get to, let’s get started. It’s time to reunite with an old friend who has served us well in previous years:

Los Angeles Chargers

Record in 2023: 5-12

Point differential in 2022: minus-52

2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 3-8

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Second easiest in the league

For those of you who have been reading for a while, you’re probably not surprised to see the Chargers appear in one of these columns. They showed up on the improve side in 2017, when they jumped from 5-11 to 9-7. There was still more juice left to be squeezed, though, and they were back on the improve side again in 2018, when they improved to 13-3. They ran a little hot, though, and were bumped to the decline side of the column in 2019, falling back down to 5-11 in the process. That was too far, so they were back on the improve side once more in 2020, where they made a modest climb to a 7-10 record. In four appearances, they’ve gone the way we hoped four times.

I’m inclined to think they’ll make it 5-for-5 this season because there’s no more obvious candidate to improve this season by the measures we use. We’ll start with the simple one: The Chargers weren’t as bad as they seemed a year ago. Even as they allowed approximately a billion points on defense in the December loss to the Raiders that cost Brandon Staley and Tom Telesco their jobs, they were competitive for the vast majority of the season.

They were outscored by only about three points per game, which is usually associated with a better record than 5-12. From 1989 to 2022, there were 54 teams that were outscored by between 2.5 and 3.5 points per game. Those teams won an average of 6.99 games per 17. That’s right in line with what the Pythagorean expectation suggests for the Chargers; they had the point differential of a seven-win team. The only teams that got worse results from that sort of performance out of that sample were the 1991 and 2005 Packers, both of whom improved dramatically the following season.

If you watched the Chargers in 2023 — or any year, really — you know their games tend to come down to nail-biters and often end with frustrating, inexplicable defeats. Last season was an intensely acute version of that phenomenon, as they went 3-8 in games decided by seven or fewer points. (I use seven points as the line for one-score games because it allows for comparisons with teams that played in an era without two-point conversions, as well as the fact that teams can theoretically win a seven-point game with one possession but can’t do so in a game where they trail by eight.)

Want to relive some of those losses? Let’s go through them:

In the opener, the Chargers led the Dolphins 31-30 with four minutes to go and had a third-and-5 from Miami’s 7-yard line but couldn’t convert and kicked a field goal. The Dolphins then drove the length of the field, with Tyreek Hill turning a third-and-10 into a 47-yard completion, and scored a touchdown to take a 36-34 lead that held up.

The following week, the Chargers blew another lead with 2:22 to go, aided by a roughing the passer call on Kenneth Murray. Justin Herbert drove them into the red zone, only for a third-down sack to force them to settle for a field goal that tied the score. L.A. won the coin toss and went three-and-out, and the Titans drove downfield for a game-winning field goal.

In Week 5, the Chargers tied up the game with the Cowboys with 7:15 to go on a fourth-and-goal conversion and were seemingly about to get the ball back, but they committed a pair of penalties on third-and-18 that gave Dallas a first down. The Cowboys then ran nearly four more minutes off the clock before kicking the game-winning field goal.

Facing the Lions in a game in which both teams converted multiple fourth-down tries, the Chargers tied it up with 3:42 to go, immediately allowed a 41-yard completion on a blown coverage and then couldn’t stop Detroit from converting a third-and-14 over two plays, setting up another field goal.

The following week, the Chargers took another lead with 5:43 to go against the Packers, but this time, an Asante Samuel Jr. pass interference penalty on third-and-20 extended a Green Bay drive that eventually produced a game-winning touchdown.

In Week 16, without Herbert or Staley, the Chargers took a 22-21 lead with 5:30 to go and couldn’t hold it, as the Bills marched down the field for another game-winning field goal.

In Week 18, facing a Chiefs team resting its starters, Los Angeles again took the lead inside the final five minutes and then blew it when Blaine Gabbert scrambled for 25 yards on a third-and-7, helping to set up another soul-crushing field goal.

Those are four games in which the Chargers had leads over eventual playoff teams in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter and two more in which they were tied and about to get the ball back if they could hold up on a third-and-long. The only other team across the past decade to lose five games it led inside the final five minutes in a season was the 2015 Giants, who went 6-10. Even other Chargers teams aren’t this bad.

The Chargers were not without luck or close victories — they came up with an interception in the end zone in Week 3 with 15 seconds left to beat the Vikings — but their close games typically went the wrong way. This is a classic indicator for teams that typically improve the following season.

In the past, maybe we could blame Staley’s late-game management for whatever woes the Chargers had in terms of closing out narrow games. I’m not sure I agree, but regardless, things should be better this season. Jim Harbaugh went 17-7 in games decided by seven or fewer points during his time with the 49ers (2011-2014). I don’t believe his true talent level in winning close games is north of 70%, but the evidence we have so far suggests he isn’t going to hold L.A. back late in games.

Can the Chargers live up to their playoff potential under Harbaugh?Pat McAfee and Darius Butler share their optimism surrounding the Chargers’ playoff potential this season under Jim Harbaugh.

Harbaugh’s broader coaching acumen and ability to turn things around quickly seems relevant here, too. He took over a 49ers team that hadn’t posted a winning season in eight years and jumped it from 6-10 to 13-3 in his first season at the helm, bringing San Francisco within a couple of muffed punts of the Super Bowl. At Michigan, Harbaugh inherited a five-win team with one 10-win season in eight years; he immediately took his alma mater to double-digit victories in his first season.

With Harbaugh and Herbert, the Chargers have arguably the two most important positions in their organization filled with high-upside solutions. I’m optimistic about the offseason they just had, especially in terms of improving at the line of scrimmage by drafting Joe Alt in the top 10. Many of the big names who left the organization — Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Corey Linsley, Eric Kendricks and Murray — were players who were either battling injuries a year ago or who saw their play slip dramatically as they got past their peak. I’m not enthused about this group of playmakers, but if L.A. gets off to a hot start, it should be able to add via trade at the deadline.

That hot start might be driven by an easy schedule. The Chargers begin with the Raiders, Panthers and Steelers. Then, after a game against the Chiefs, they get the Broncos and Cardinals. Injuries have already raised fears about whether they will be able to hit the ground running, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they started 4-2 and immediately emerged as a team worth noticing. I think the Chargers will be a playoff team in 2024.

New England Patriots

Record in 2023: 4-13

Point differential in 2022: minus-130

2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 4-8

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Toughest in the league

It hasn’t exactly been an auspicious preseason for the Patriots. After failing to come to terms with Matthew Judon on an extension, they traded their top pass rusher to the Falcons for a third-round pick. Defensive tackle Christian Barmore, who was signed to a four-year, $92 million extension this offseason, is battling blood clots and has no timetable for his return. And Drake Maye, the team’s top pick and quarterback of the future, has spent training camp working with the second team, raising concerns he might not be ready to immediately jump into the starting lineup.

Are there still reasons to be optimistic about the Pats? I think so. There’s not likely to be a Texans-style turnaround coming unless Maye immediately rights the ship, but there are more reasons to feel good about New England than it seems. I’d be more excited about the team potentially pushing for a playoff berth if Judon and Barmore were around, but the Pats should be able to improve on last season’s 4-13 performance.

Let’s start with the defense, because what the Pats did in the second half in 2023 is one of the most underreported performances of last season. From Week 10 onward, the Patriots — not the Chiefs, not the Ravens, not the Jets — were the best defense in football. They allowed 1.3 points per drive and minus-0.12 expected points added (EPA) per play, both of which were tops in the NFL. Although defenses can have a hot stretch by forcing wildly high turnover rates — as the Bears did over that same second half — the Pats created turnovers on 7% of opposing drives, which was the fifth-lowest rate in the league.

The context for that performance only makes things more impressive. The Patriots spent that entire stretch without Judon and promising rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez, both of whom went down early with season-ending injuries. They also inherited dismal starting field position from their offense, with the average opposing drive starting on their own 34-yard line. That was the league’s worst mark and the third worst inherited field position any defense has had to endure in the second half of a season over the past decade.

That performance also came in what amounted to a lame-duck end in New England for Bill Belichick, who undoubtedly played a huge role in coaxing dominant play out of that defense. He’s no longer with the organization, and it’s tough to imagine anyone is going to be as good at building a week-to-week game plan on defense as the best coach in modern NFL history.

On the other hand, new coach Jerod Mayo played for Belichick and has spent the past five years on Belichick’s staff as a defensive assistant. If anyone should have insight into what Belichick was doing on that side of the ball, shouldn’t it be Mayo? I’m not sure the Patriots will have the league’s best defense in 2024, especially with Barmore’s status uncertain, but this should still be a unit capable of landing in the top 10.

And then, on offense, this team can’t really be much worse, can it? There’s no Brandon Aiyuk in terms of offensive upgrades, but there are new additions who should help give the offense some life, including second-round wideout Ja’lynn Polk and running back Antonio Gibson. The offensive line is still a work in progress and doesn’t have a plug-and-play left tackle, but it should be deeper than it was last season.

Most importantly, the Patriots made what likely will be major upgrades at quarterback. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe exhibited virtually no upside or ability to push the ball downfield a year ago, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and completing a league-low 14 deep passes. Maye’s physical tools and arm strength are simply at a different level from what New England had last season. Although he’ll have hiccups and throw interceptions as he adjusts to the pro game, the Patriots were turning the ball over plenty last season, too. At least this time around they’ll have upside to counter some of those giveaways.

And if Maye isn’t ready, the Pats have the most qualified backup/bridge quarterback in the league in Jacoby Brissett. The journeyman passer grossly outplayed Deshaun Watson with the Browns in 2022, with a 62.0 QBR that would have ranked eighth in the league. Last season, he spent the season sitting behind Sam Howell in Washington. Given brief opportunities to play, he went 18-of-23 for 224 yards with three touchdowns, leading the Commanders all the way back from a 20-point deficit against the Jets to take a one-point lead before the defense blew the game.

Brissett’s best skill is avoiding interceptions; the only quarterback who has posted a better interception rate since he entered the league is Aaron Rodgers. And for the Patriots, even if they don’t immediately turn to Maye, having a quarterback who can protect the football would go a long way. The 2023 Patriots turned the ball over 29 times and posted a turnover margin of minus-11. There are versions of this team that combine a very good defense with a much higher floor (Brissett) and a much higher ceiling (Maye) than what they had at quarterback a year ago.

Acknowledging that Barmore already is a critical injury, the Patriots should also be healthier than they were. The FTN Football Almanac notes the Pats were the league’s third most injured offense and its most-injured defense by its adjusted games lost metric. There’s little reason to think that will happen again, which should also help.

Is there enough upside here to cobble together a playoff berth? Probably not, especially given that the Patriots are projected to play the toughest schedule in football by ESPN’s FPI. Then again, who would have said that about the Texans this time a year ago? By the numbers, Houston should have made this list, given that it went 3-13-1 in 2022 with a five-win Pythagorean expectation. The Texans were upgrading from Davis Mills and Kyle Allen to a real quarterback prospect in C.J. Stroud. And because they got the quarterback decision correct, a lot of other things fell into place. If Maye’s the guy the Patriots hope he’s going to be as a rookie, watch out.

Washington Commanders

Record in 2023: 4-13

Point differential in 2022: minus-189

2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 3-5

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 11th easiest in the league

The Commanders were the other team with a veteran lame-duck coach, as it was hardly a state secret that Ron Rivera wasn’t going to be back in Washington in 2024. Josh Harris and the rest of Washington’s new ownership group took over in July 2023, which wasn’t enough time to make a change before the start of the season, but when the Commanders traded both Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the deadline, the writing was on the proverbial wall for Rivera.

After a failed attempt to hire Ben Johnson, enter the new front office of coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters, who have stocked the cupboard for Washington in an interesting way. I’m loath to compare another bad team from 2023 to the Texans, but there are similarities beyond the fact that both chose a high-upside quarterback with the No. 2 pick in the draft.

Jayden Daniels is the player who could most dramatically propel the Commanders forward, and, as with the Texans, there are players here who could look a lot better if the quarterback play improves. We haven’t seen Terry McLaurin play with even an average NFL quarterback so far. Jahan Dotson flashed as a rookie before going quiet with Howell last season. Free agent addition Austin Ekeler struggled with the Chargers in 2023, but he’s one year removed from a 1,637-yard, 18-touchdown season. Second-round tight end Ben Sinnott drew pre-draft comparisons to another former Washington player in Chris Cooley. If Daniels arrives ready to go, everyone in this group will look a lot better.

In his first offseason, Peters seemed to emulate the path Nick Caserio chose to rebuild the Texans. Caserio eventually found his young core of stars in the draft, but much of the roster he built over the past few years has been around veterans on short-term deals at modest prices. Caserio didn’t take a big swing for an experienced talent until he traded for Stefon Diggs this offseason, but the likes of Steven Nelson, George Fant and Devin Singletary all played meaningful roles for Houston as the franchise got better faster than anybody expected. The Texans were actually the league’s fourth-oldest team by snap-weighted age in 2023.

The Commanders aren’t going to be quite as old, but there was definitely an attempt to work toward the middle class and build a veteran roster this offseason. Ekeler and Zach Ertz are on modest deals, each coming in below $5 million per season. Nick Allegretti and Tyler Biadasz were signed to upgrade the interior of the offensive line. Marcus Mariota comes in as the backup to Daniels. This team isn’t starting over from scratch.

Those changes are even more pronounced on defense, where the biggest addition was former Cowboys edge rusher Dorance Armstrong, who will move into a starting role. Peters added players who had looked more promising in previous years before being stuck on bad defenses a year ago, including a pair of Panthers (Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn) and former Chargers cornerback Mike Davis. Bobby Wagner, who made it back to the Pro Bowl a year ago, will be the leader on the defensive side of the ball. The edge behind Armstrong is mostly bets on former highly drafted linemen Dante Fowler and Clelin Ferrell, but there’s still the strength of the defense on the interior in Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne.

Quinn’s job will be to generate something he excelled at creating during his time in Dallas: interceptions. The Cowboys picked off a league-high 3.5% of passes during his time there, with Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland leading the NFL in interceptions during different campaigns over that three-year run. Quinn’s Falcons defenses (2015-2020) weren’t quite as effective at forcing turnovers — and there’s obviously a Micah Parsons-sized hole missing from the defense Quinn had in Dallas — but the hope naturally has to be that he’s able to bring some of his coverages over to Washington. Mike Sainristil, who intercepted six passes at Michigan last season, might be the best candidate in the secondary to pick off a bunch of throws.

While Quinn’s defenses were forcing interceptions in Dallas, the Commanders weren’t generating many of their own. Their 1.5% interception rate over the past two seasons was the worst in football, and that’s an element of the game that fluctuates more randomly from season to season. If they take a surprising step forward, an increased interception rate from the defense is likely to be one of the reasons.

With Howell throwing for his life on the other side of the ball, Washington simply was overmatched in terms of protecting the football in 2023. It posted a league-worst turnover differential of minus-14, winning the turnover battle just once across its final nine games. Unsurprisingly, the Commanders went 1-8 in those games.

If you want a simple, easy way to find a team that’s going to improve each year and don’t want to deal with me rambling about roster construction philosophies and Pythagorean expectations, just pick the team that finished last in turnover margin. It’s typically a great way to find the team that will come out of nowhere and exceed expectations. Last season, that team was the Colts, who lost their starting quarterback in September and still came within a game of the postseason:

I’m pessimistic about every other team in the NFC East, which included three franchises that were all on the short list for Tuesday’s column of teams likely to decline. (I won’t spoil and reveal how many of them actually made it in.) If the other teams in the division have major question marks, can Washington really be that far behind? I’m worried about Daniels’ ability to stay healthy behind one of the league’s least-imposing offensive lines — and there’s probably not enough of a pass rush to field a great defense — but the Commanders should be able to push toward league-average football in Quinn’s first season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Record in 2023: 11-6

Point differential in 2022: plus-77

2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 4-4

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Eighth easiest in the league

In some ways, the Chiefs don’t really fit on this list. The improve side of this column usually includes teams with subpar records from the previous season, since having bad luck or timing often results in teams losing lots of games. Andy Reid’s team had a perfectly normal record in one-score games, and its point differential would have projected it to produce 10.8 wins, which isn’t far off from where it ended up in reality during the regular season.

Instead, there are other factors under the hood for Kansas City that lead me to project a jump past 11 wins this season. Since we were just talking about the Commanders and their turnover margin, let’s start there. With the greatest quarterback on the planet and an elite defense, the Chiefs somehow managed to post a minus-11 turnover differential, the league’s fifth-worst mark.

Patrick Mahomes & Co. actually lost the turnover battle in nine of their 17 games, going 4-5 in those matchups. As a subtraction wizard, I can tell you they managed a 7-1 record in the games in which they tied or won the turnover battle. They lost the turnover battle only once during their four playoff games, with that coming in their narrow road win over the Bills when Mecole Hardman fumbled away a would-be touchdown.

With Mahomes under center, losing the turnover battle hadn’t been a regular occurrence. Between 2018 and 2022, the Chiefs trailed their opponents in turnover margin 26 times, the fourth-lowest rate for any team, and one that amounts to about five games per season. They went 15-11 in those games, which is a testament to how they can overcome mistakes, but they were 15-5 when they tied the opposing team in turnovers and a whopping 34-2 when they posted a superior turnover margin. I don’t see any reason to believe Kansas City is going to be as likely to lose the turnover battle as it was a year ago, and that should bump up its record in the process.

Some of that was bad luck. While holding on to the football and forcing fumbles are skills, what happens once the ball hits the ground is mostly a crapshoot. There were 43 fumbles in Chiefs games last season, and they managed to recover just 18 of those. That’s a recovery rate below 42%, which was the fourth lowest of any team. Again, fortunes changed in the postseason: Kansas City recovered 13 of 18 fumbles, good for a 72.2% clip.

Then there were those drops. Sometimes those led to turnovers, and the turnovers led to defeats: Kadarius Toney’s drop in the opening game against the Lions turned what should have been a completion into a pick-six for rookie safety Brian Branch. Chiefs wideouts posted a 7.8% drop rate during the regular season, the worst rate for any team’s wideouts in any season over the past decade. Compared with every other wide receivers room from every other team over that stretch, Kansas City’s drop rate was 3.5 standard deviations above the mean. The receivers were scandalously bad.

And yet, during the postseason, things were better! Those same wideouts dropped just 3% of the passes thrown in their direction, which was exactly the league average during the playoffs. Even given that the Chiefs weren’t exactly loaded at wide receiver, that sort of drop rate was never going to keep reoccurring, and once it fell back to earth, they looked much better on offense.

The 2024 team should be better at wide receiver, even with Marquise Brown already sidelined by a shoulder injury. Rashee Rice will be entering his second season after impressing across 622 snaps a year ago, and first-round pick Xavier Worthy should be a higher-ceiling option than the departed Marquez Valdes-Scantling. There should be fewer snaps in the big picture for Toney, Skyy Moore and Justyn Ross, who might not be much better than replacement level.

The added speed should help restore a deep passing attack that went absolutely silent last season. Mahomes had ranked in the top 11 in deep passing QBR each of his first five seasons as Kansas City’s starter. He fell to 27th in 2023. The only quarterback with a worse completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on deep throws was Mac Jones. If you think Mahomes’ true talent level on deep throws is right alongside that of Sam Howell and Bryce Young, well, I’m inclined to disagree.

The offense should be better. And although the defense won’t have cornerback L’Jarius Sneed after he was traded to the Titans, the Chiefs had the league’s second-youngest unit a year ago and ranked fifth in the NFL in EPA allowed per play. Even if the Sneed-less secondary takes a step backward, improvements on offense and better fumble luck should help Kansas City push toward the top seed in the AFC.

Arizona Cardinals

Record in 2023: 4-13

Point differential in 2022: minus-125

2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 2-5

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 14th toughest in the league

Is it just as simple as counting on Kyler Murray? The Cardinals were 1-8 with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune at quarterback a year ago, and once Murray returned from a torn ACL, they went 3-5. It’s always dangerous to count on a quarterback to play 17 games, but projecting Murray to play more than eight seems like a fair bet. And if that happens, Arizona should be better.

There’s more to it than that, though. The Jets are going to improve with a full season of Aaron Rodgers, but there’s not much fun or insight in just pointing out teams that are going to get more than four snaps from their starting quarterback. The Cardinals need more than that to make it into this list.

Well, what about the quarterbacks the Cardinals faced? One of the things I’ve started tracking in recent years is how often teams face the opposing team’s top quarterback. That usually means the Week 1 starter, but that’s not always the case. For Arizona, as an example, I considered Murray to be the team’s top quarterback, even though he missed more than half the season.

The average NFL team faced the opposing team’s No. 1 passer on about 73% of dropbacks in 2023. If it felt as if teams were struggling with quarterbacks, well, they were; the average rate between 2002 and 2022 was closer to 78%. The low over that time frame was 2007, when defenses faced top passers just 67% of the time. Still, 2023 was definitely a season in which a lot of defenses got to face second- and third-stringers more often than they would have expected.

That didn’t extend to the Cardinals. Their defense faced No. 1 quarterbacks just under 93% of the time, which was comfortably the highest mark in football. No other team was over 85%. Jonathan Gannon’s defense got half a game against Mitchell Trubisky, half a game against Taylor Heinicke and four garbage-time snaps from Sam Darnold and Davis Mills. That’s it.

Teams can’t control whether the opposing quarterback shows up to the game healthy, obviously, so there’s no way the Cardinals should expect to face top passers that often again. And when teams don’t have to deal with that, they usually improve. When we look at franchises from 2002 to 2022 that had to deal with No. 1 quarterbacks more than 90% of the time, they had to face those passers only an average of 78% of the time the following season, the league-average rate.

Their defenses and win totals also improved. They allowed an average of 21 fewer points the following season. Their records improved by an average of 1.3 wins per 17 contests. For an Arizona team that ranked 31st in scoring defense, any improvement it can get on that side of the ball would help.

The personnel should be improved in Gannon’s second season, although losing BJ Ojulari to a torn ACL before the season even began limits the ceiling. There are new big bodies up front in Justin Jones, Bilal Nichols and first-round pick Darius Robinson, all of whom should help a team that allowed 2.9 yards before first contact, the fourth-highest rate in the league. A cornerbacks room that had been among the league’s worst for nearly a half-decade finally has some capital invested at the position with veteran addition Sean Murphy-Bunting, second-year corner Garrett Williams and Day 2 picks Max Melton and Elijah Jones. This team is still a couple of edge rushers short of being able to challenge for above-average status, but it isn’t Budda Baker, Kyzir White and praying that somebody in pass protection slips on the defensive side of the ball again.

Gannon was hardly conservative as a rookie coach. He went for it on fourth down at the highest rate of any coach in the league, which should help the Cardinals in close games once their defense improves. Arizona went 2-5 in one-score games last season. One of those was a game against the Ravens in which a late field goal only pretended to make things competitive, but the Cardinals held late leads on the Commanders, Giants and Seahawks and lost all three games. They lost to the Texans by five in a game in which they held Houston to 21 points, only for a late Murray drive to come up short. Gannon is going to need to figure out how to stop the 49ers and Rams, who dropped 137 points on the Cardinals across four games, but even getting to adequate would be a major upgrade.

And then, yes, Murray should help fill in some of the gaps on offense. The Cardinals ranked 28th in EPA per play on offense before he returned to the lineup, then improved all the way to 10th by the same metric after Murray recovered. They did that with an offense where the top wide receivers were Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch, as Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson were injured for stretches in the second half.

Brown is gone, but he’s been replaced by what might be the second coming of Larry Fitzgerald in Marvin Harrison Jr. We’ve seen how quickly Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson have adapted to the league after leaving Ohio State, and Harrison is regarded as a better prospect than either. He fundamentally changes how teams can defend Arizona, and that should only open up more opportunities for everyone else in the offense.

The more subtle improvements might be up front, where Paris Johnson Jr. will move from right tackle to his natural position at left tackle, while Jonah Williams was signed away from the Bengals to step in on the right side. On paper, this is the best line the Cardinals have had in several years. If they can protect Murray and the defense does take a step forward, they could find themselves on the fringes of the wild-card race in the NFC.

FIVE FANTASY SLEEPERS

From Michelle Magdziuk of NFL.com:

Winning a fantasy football championship is no easy feat. Hitting on your early draft picks can ensure you have a solid squad, but if you select a player in the late rounds and he ends up breaking out, that can be the difference between a playoff team and a championship team.

With that in mind, I identified five players who have a great chance to significantly outperform expectations after being selected in the final stretches of fantasy drafts. Players are listed based on average draft position (ADP) in 12-team PPR leagues, according to Fantasy Pros.

Jerome Ford

Cleveland Browns · RB

ADP: Round 10 (RB39)

As the Browns’ primary back from Weeks 2 through 18 last season, Ford recorded 210 fantasy points, 14th most among RBs during that span. He finished as a top-24 RB in 12 weeks, including four top-10 finishes. With Nick Chubb working his way back from the knee injury that ended his 2023 season in Week 2, Ford is being drafted around other backup RBs. I see an opportunity there for fantasy managers because Ford should still have a big role in the Browns’ offense. Chubb is coming off a severe injury, and he is still on the physically-unable-to-perform list with no clear timetable for his return. When Chubb does return, I expect him to be brought back slowly. Plus, Ford’s pass-catching role seems safe. He had 63 targets last season, fourth most on the Browns, and Chubb has never been utilized heavily as a pass-catching back. If you need depth at the RB position later in your draft, Ford is a very solid pick.

Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars · WR

ADP: Round 11 (WR49)

With Calvin Ridley departing in free agency this offseason, there is a huge opportunity for Thomas to earn a large workload in his rookie year, especially in the red zone. Ridley saw a team-high 23 red-zone targets in 2023, 13 more than any other Jaguars player, per Next Gen Stats. Thomas, the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, could shine in this role. He was a scoring machine in 2023 at LSU, catching an FBS-high 17 touchdowns, including 12 deep TDs (20-plus air yds), which also led the FBS. Since 2000 there have been only three other SEC players who have scored 17-plus receiving touchdowns in a single season: Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and DeVonta Smith. Thomas can be a league-winner for fantasy managers in 2024.

Rashid Shaheed

New Orleans Saints · WR

ADP: Round 13 or later (WR63)

Last season Shaheed finished second on the Saints with 719 receiving yards and tied for first with five receiving touchdowns. Obviously, those numbers don’t add up to a great fantasy season, but he made progress, finishing as the WR44 in 2023. I project he will have a big third-year leap in production, so his ADP is way too low at WR63. There is a clear path for his playing time and target share to increase with the team finally moving on from Michael Thomas. Plus, TE Juwan Johnson, who ranked fifth on the team in targets last season, is dealing with a foot injury that landed him on the PUP list. This Saints offense needs Shaheed to step up and be a great playmaker. He should fit very well in the system of new OC Klint Kubiak, who was the passing game coordinator for Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers last year. As long as the toe/foot injury he’s dealing with doesn’t become a long-term issue, New Orleans should be able to maximize Shaheed’s big-play ability.

Ja’Lynn Polk

New England Patriots · WR

ADP: Round 14 or later (WR66)

After landing on a Patriots offense that’s looking underwhelming, Polk is being overlooked in fantasy drafts. His ADP of WR66 is giving me flashbacks to when A.J. Brown was going undrafted in fantasy leagues as a rookie entering the 2019 season because the Titans did not appear to have an ideal situation for him in Year 1. Like Brown in 2019, Polk has a very realistic chance to be the top target in his offense. He’s earned glowing reviews in training camp. Polk flashed his big-play ability during his career at Washington, averaging 17.1 yards per catch from 2021 to 2023, which ranked fourth in the FBS during that span (min. 100 receptions). We’ll see how the Patriots’ QB competition turns out, but the likely Week 1 starter, Jacoby Brissett, is capable of helping a WR to a top-24 fantasy finish.

Daniel Jones

New York Giants · QB

ADP: Round 14 or later (QB32)

The 2023 season was miserable for the Giants offense, especially for Jones, who ended up missing 11 games due to neck and knee injuries. Let’s not forget, though, that we are only one season removed from him finishing as a top-10 QB in fantasy. Mobile quarterbacks can provide an edge in fantasy football, and Jones has averaged 5.8 yards per carry in his career, which ranks third in the NFL among players with 300-plus carries since 2019 (behind only Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields). Jones put up 708 rush yards and 7 rush TDs in 2022, and 206 rush yards in 2023 even though he missed about two-thirds of the season. He has high upside because of his rushing ability, and now he finally has a true WR1 to target in rookie Malik Nabers, the sixth overall pick of the 2024 draft. Jones should not be going undrafted in fantasy leagues. He could be a great pick in the final round of your draft, especially if you took a lower-ceiling QB like Jared Goff earlier on.