| SUPER BOWL 59As Bill Barnwell points out at ESPN.com, the Chiefs actually did some good things on defense. Complete and utter dominance. On the biggest stage, with the Chiefs dominating the headlines in their attempt to win a third consecutive title, the Eagles comprehensively manhandled them in New Orleans. The 40-22 final score in Super Bowl LIX seems unfair both to a Philadelphia defense that shut down Kansas City until a couple of garbage-time touchdowns in the fourth quarter and to a Kansas City defense that battled gamely before finally getting overwhelmed by short fields and the sheer volume of snaps it had to play. Imagine being a Chiefs fan and getting to see pieces of the box score of this game in advance. The Chiefs did the best job any team has done all season against Saquon Barkley, who ran 25 times for 57 yards. The Eagles went 3-for-12 on third downs, failed to convert their only fourth down, turned the ball over in the red zone and averaged 5.1 yards per play — fewer than the Chiefs. All of that sounds like the sort of game the Chiefs would expect to win given what they’re capable of doing on offense. All of that is true and the Chiefs still fell behind 34-0 during the third quarter, precisely because of what they couldn’t do on offense. This was the worst possible time for Patrick Mahomes to have what will likely go down as his worst big game as a pro. Before saving his numbers with those late fourth-quarter scores, he looked as flummoxed as we’ve ever seen him. If you had told that same Chiefs fan that Mahomes was about to go 6-of-14 for 33 yards with two interceptions in the first half of the Super Bowl, that fan could have done more productive things with a free Sunday. Those 33 yards were the fewest Mahomes has ever posted in the first half of any NFL game. His 10.9 passer rating was the third worst from any quarterback in the first half of a game this season. By expected points added (EPA) per dropback, his minus-1.36 mark was the 10th worst by any quarterback in the first half of any game since the start of the 2018 season. Appearing on a podcast last week, Mike Martz indicated the game could be won by the Eagles against Kansas City’s offensive tackles. That’s what Barnwell saw as well. They exploited and overpowered Kansas City’s tackles. Go back to the last time Fangio coached against an Andy Reid-led offense. It was the wild-card round last season, with Fangio serving as defensive coordinator for the Dolphins. Without his top two edge rushers due to injury — Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips — the normally conservative Fangio turned on the heat. The veteran coordinator blitzed Mahomes on more than 51% of the quarterback’s dropbacks, his third-highest blitz rate in more than 220 games as a coordinator since 2007. Nobody wants to blitz Mahomes, who has lit up blitzes since entering the league, but Fangio surely felt like the alternative was sitting back and withering away on defense. On Sunday, the Eagles didn’t blitz once on Mahomes’ 42 dropbacks. (They had a couple of plays that would technically qualify as blitzes when the Eagles sent Zack Baun, but they dropped a lineman off into coverage as part of the snap.) Fangio rushed four players 39 times and three players three times. The Eagles still managed to pressure Mahomes on nearly 45% of his dropbacks through three quarters before Fangio gave his backups some run in the fourth. They sacked Mahomes six times with a four-man rush, something that has never happened to the future Hall of Famer in his career. He had never been sacked more than four times by a three- or four-man rush in a single game. When these two teams played in the title game two years ago, the Eagles managed to get pressure on Mahomes, but he wriggled and maneuvered his way out of danger. A dominant Philadelphia defensive line pressured him on 37% of his dropbacks then, but it failed to take him down for a sack on 11 pressures. Those 11 snaps produced just 35 yards, but a lack of negative plays helped keep the Chiefs afloat on offense in a shootout. This time, the Eagles finished the job. They ran a similar pressure rate to that Super Bowl (38%), but they turned six of those 15 pressures into sacks. Here’s a crazy stat from Dan Orlovsky: @danorlovsky7QBs whose teams scored 35 points in multiple Super Bowls: Jalen Hurts (twice in 2 appearances) Joe Montana(twice in 4 appearances) We can add that Montana and Hurts are the only QBs with 400+ pass yards, 150+ rush yards and a passer rating of 100+ in Super Bowl history. This from Matt Mosley: @mattmosleyIt appears that 5 of the past 8 Super Bowl-winning QBs played high school football in Texas. That accounts for Nick Foles, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes and of course Jalen Hurts. I don’t expect this trend to end anytime soon. It was Texas vs. Texas this week after Texas beat California in both championship games. Most of the top QBs to come out in recent years are either from Texas (yet to win Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray). California QBs without rings include Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels and Jared Goff. |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASUpdate on the Cowboys offensive staff from Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com: The Cowboys are finalizing a deal to hire former Browns offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, NFL Media reports. Dorsey’s role on Brian Schottenheimer’s staff is yet to be determined. The Cowboys initially hired Schottenheimer as a coaching analyst in 2022, so it’s possible Dorsey starts in a similar role with the Cowboys. Or maybe he’s the hire for their quarterbacks job, which is not yet filled. Dorsey. 43, interviewed for the offensive coordinator position that went to Klayton Adams. Who is this Klayton with a K Adams? Mike Fisher of Athlon Sports: His new offensive coordinator is Klayton Adams, formerly the Arizona Cardinals offensive line coach. And now working under them is another new hire, Kansas State ex Conor Riley taking on the job as offensive line coach. Who is “Schotty” connected to? Who fits? That’s part of the game. What about Riley? That one is easy, as he coached both Cooper Beebe and Deuce Vaughn in his time with the Wildcats. And what about Adams? The Cardinals are concerned that they might lose one of their top offensive linemen in this year’s free agency cycle in the form of starting right guard Will Hernandez. Hernandez, a New York Giants’ second-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, signed with Arizona two years ago for just $9 million. Spotrac now projects him to get a similar deal going forward, viewing him as being worth just $4.5 million per year. Hernandez played just five games last year due to a knee injury; maybe that’s why the projected number is so affordable. But now he is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and while he is saying he “would love” to re-sign with the Cardinals – which is no doubt true … Those breadcrumbs. Hernandez was a solid starter in New York. He’s massive at 6-3, 330. He can play the same position that could be vacated of future Hall of Fame guard Zack Martin opts to retire. He’s a Texas native, from El Paso. We recall the Cowboys thinking highly of him back during his draft … And there is the Klayton Connection. … meaning the bread crumbs are there for the sleuths to see. |
| PHILADELPHIAAfter a dominant win, Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com says the Eagles may have what it takes for a three-peat: There have been 59 Super Bowls played and still no team has won three of them in a row. The Chiefs’ quest for a three-peat starts over at zero after they were thoroughly dominated by the Philadelphia Eagles 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday night. The 1929-31 and 1965-67 Green Bay Packers can rest easy. They’re still the only teams with three NFL championships in a row. The Chiefs came closer than anyone to being the first to win three Super Bowls in a row, but their run at history got blown apart by an Eagles team that was determined to not lose to the Chiefs in a Super Bowl again. All week, the Eagles kept talking about focus. They learned from Super Bowl LVII, when most of their players were in their first Super Bowl and they took in the entire experience of the week. This time, the Eagles wanted to win the game. It showed. Saquon Barkley was taken out of the game by the Chiefs’ defense before halftime and it hardly mattered. Jalen Hurts threw a bad interception with the Eagles in field-goal range in the first half and nobody will remember it. The Eagles’ defense simply took over the game. There are plenty of numbers that indicated Mahomes had the worst half of his NFL career in Super Bowl LIX, with the Chiefs going for a historic third title in a row. He had a 10.7 passer rating. The Chiefs had one first down in the first half, and it came on their first offensive play of the game. The Eagles had 23 yards in the first half, the lowest in the first half for the Chiefs since Mahomes became their starting quarterback. Pick a stat, and it tells you the simple story of Super Bowl LIX: The Eagles weren’t just the better team, but better by miles. The Eagles won Super Bowl LII, the franchise’s first Super Bowl title, in a close game against the New England Patriots that wasn’t decided until the final moments. While nobody in Philadelphia could celebrate too early, because Mahomes is hard to count out, it was a pretty stress-free Super Bowl Sunday for Eagles fans. The Chiefs have won 17 straight one-score games, and the Eagles figured out how to get around that. They made sure the Chiefs were never competitive. There are reasons a team has never won three straight Super Bowls. There are a lot of extra games involved. It’s tough to keep your roster together year after year, especially in the salary-cap era. Injuries are unpredictable and can derail any team’s season. And sometimes, you run up against a team that on that particular day in the playoffs looks like it could beat just about any other team in NFL history. The Eagles’ performance, particularly on defense, ranks among the best in Super Bowl history. Philadelphia’s front pummeled the Chiefs’ offensive line, which was a theme in Kansas City’s other Super Bowl loss with Mahomes four years ago to the Buccaneers. The Eagles were 16-1 after September, with their only loss coming when Hurts suffered a concussion in the first quarter and Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels threw a game-winning touchdown with six seconds left. That’s how close Philadelphia was from running the table for a stretch of four and a half months. The Chiefs’ pursuit of history and other flashy teams like the Ravens, Bills and Lions kept the Eagles’ dominance in the shadows for much of the season. Barkley’s brilliance was a recurring headline but the Eagles as a team were strangely under the radar. Even when they scored 55 points in beating Washington in the NFC championship game, the focus leading up to the Super Bowl was how unbeatable Mahomes, Reid and the Chiefs’ dynasty was in big games. The Eagles’ first Super Bowl win was probably sweeter after such a long wait. But it’s probably safe to say that Super Bowl LIX was the most dominant game in Eagles franchise history. Now their pursuit of a three-peat can begin.– – -Conner Orr of SI.com found Vic Fangio in the locker room: Fangio says the season has been great for him. He remembers growing up an hour north of Philly, in Dunmore, and rooting for the Eagles—“They weren’t very good in the ’60s and ’70s, in fact, they were s—y, he says”—and adds that he’s spent more time around his family and friends this year. Some are here. He’s asked about his mom specifically. “My mother is 98; she can’t travel like that,” he says. But has he heard from her, someone asks? “I’m sure I have. She don’t text, though.”– – -We had forgotten that the “grass” in the desert was slick two years ago. But the Eagles hadn’t. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: Two years ago, an embarrassingly slick field took the edge off the Eagles’ pass rush in Super Bowl LVII. And that might have helped the Chiefs secure a championship. In Super Bowl LIX, the playing surface inside the Superdome was not an issue. And the Eagles took full advantage of the sure footing. Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson pointed out after last night’s game that he’d made that point on July 3, 2023: “Run that bowl back on legit grass, the Dline SMASH that Oline I’m sorry.” (Why July 3? That same day, we’d posted that the NFL was privately blaming the situation on the players for not wearing the right shoes.) It’s easy to say the field was the same for both teams. But when a slick field neutralizes the strength of one team and masks a weakness of another, it does indeed make a difference. While plenty of other factors influenced the outcome of Super Bowl LIX, the Philadelphia defensive line dominated the Kansas City offensive line — to the point where the Eagles didn’t need to blitz a single time. With seven men in coverage against a middle-of-the-pack (at best) group of pass-catchers and four men shortening the time that Patrick Mahomes had to throw, the two pieces came together to clamp down on the Chiefs’ offense. And, yes, if the Eagles’ edge rushers had been slipping and sliding while trying to put pressure on Mahomes, that would have helped the Chiefs. Like it did two years ago, when the Super Bowl was played on one of the worst surfaces the game has ever seen. We found this about the slick sod two years ago that started the Chiefs run that could have been a three-peat: The embarrassing field conditions will continue to haunt the league, as well as longtime groundskeeper, George Toma. The 94-year-old, who has worked every Super Bowl, spoke about the field’s performance, telling ESPN he believes the issues could have been avoided. Toma claimed the field was overwatered in the days leading up to the big game, adding the field was watered Wednesday morning and then rolled into the stadium to prepare for the Sunday kickoff. State Farm Stadium’s field is on a gigantic tray, allowing the venue to slide the grass out into the desert sun when not in use. Toma, nicknamed the “Sodfather,” said the field should’ve been left outside to dry before being moved inside. He took aim at the NFL’s field director, Ed Mangan, who was in charge of the Super Bowl playing surface. Mangan worked under Toma for years, but that didn’t stop the Sodfather from criticizing the way the field was handled prior to kickoff. “He waters the hell out of it and puts it right into the stadium and that’s it,” Toma said of Mangan. “Never sees sunlight again. He can’t do that.” Toma added that because the field didn’t have enough time to dry, the tarp used to protect the surface from rehearsals for the pregame, halftime, and postgame shows caused the turf to have an odor. Eventually, Toma said, he was told the field began to rot and decay. The criticisms didn’t stop there. The groundskeeper then proceeded to take aim at Mangan for the lack of sand in the field. “He sanded it two weeks late,” Toma said. “He had only one sanding. He should have two or three sandings, but he didn’t do s—. And that was it. And not only that, he didn’t take care of it. He wouldn’t listen to anybody.” The field for Super Bowl 57 was the last that Toma will work on, as he retired following the event. Toma spent over 80 years in the groundskeeping business. He was honored by the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2001 and inducted into the Major League Baseball Groundskeepers Hall of Fame in 2012. It appears that Toma is looking forward to moving on, telling ESPN, “I can’t take it anymore.” He added that he hasn’t been happy with how the league has dealt with field problems at previous Super Bowl sites. “Me and the league are finished,” Toma said. “They can’t tell me what to do anymore. We’re done.” |
| NFC SOUTH |
| ATLANTAQB KIRK COUSINS was toughing it out with a bum arm when his season went south. Dianna Russini of The Athletic: If you watched Kirk Cousins last season and thought, something just looks off, you weren’t wrong. But here’s the scoop: It wasn’t his Achilles. After that devastating Achilles tear ended his 2023 season, Cousins spent all of 2024 working his way back. And by his own account? The Achilles itself actually felt pretty good last season. The real issue? Everything else. “The challenge I had was — and it sounds strange to say — it was like the rest of my ankle still needed to figure out how to be an ankle again. And that’s what I was working through, especially early in the season. But then I took a hit against the Saints in Week 10 that messed with my shoulder and elbow. So now, I had the right ankle, the shoulder, the elbow — there was a lot I was working through. That was hard.” Cousins gets a full offseason to finally get his body right. But with Michael Penix Jr. stepping in and impressing late last season, Cousins’ future in Atlanta suddenly isn’t as locked in as it once seemed. Cousins will be 37 in August, but if you ask him, he’s far from done. He points back to 2014, when he struggled as Washington’s starter before grinding all offseason and breaking out in 2015. In his mind, he can do it again in 2025. The only question now: What uniform will he be wearing when he gets that chance? |
| NEW ORLEANSThe DB’s phone beeped after midnight Sunday morning with the breathless news that Eagles OC Kellen Moore is likely to be doing a Shanahan and heading directly to New Orleans on Monday. Adam Schefter of ESPN.com on the legalities that have delayed any announcement: Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is expected to become the New Orleans Saints’ head coach, barring any unexpected developments, league sources told ESPN. Moore has been the top candidate for the vacant Saints job since completing a pair of interviews with New Orleans last month. The Saints are making sure they do everything by the book so as not to break any rules and risk potential penalties. New Orleans learned from the lesson of the Arizona Cardinals, who were penalized for tampering with then-Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, whom they eventually hired as their head coach. Arizona and Philadelphia ultimately agreed to a draft compensation penalty as a result of a phone call between Gannon and the Cardinals that took place during a no-contact period in advance of Super Bowl LVII. The Saints, with their history of being in the NFL’s crosshairs, don’t want to bend or break any rules and therefore will wait until after Super Bowl LIX on Sunday before working to try to finalize any agreement with Moore, according to sources. The sides are not expected to have any challenges to get a deal done, sources said. Moore is expected to have his salary more than doubled, and possibly tripled, and few would be willing to surrender an opportunity like that to become one of the NFL’s 32 head coaches. Moore privately has told people he is interested in and wants the Saints job, according to sources, and the Saints want him, which is why a deal is expected to get done once the sides can meet again after Super Bowl LIX, barring an unexpected breakdown in contract talks. Although he declined to elaborate earlier this week, Moore told reporters Monday that he had a “great” experience meeting with Saints general manager Mickey Loomis and other team officials in Philadelphia last week. Moore has no previous head coaching experience in the NFL but has enjoyed success as a playcaller and oversaw an Eagles attack that ranked eighth in the NFL in total offense (367.2 yards per game) this season, including second in rushing (179.3 yards per game). The Saints are the last NFL team with a current head coach opening. They fired Dennis Allen during the season, with special teams coach Darren Rizzi filling in on an interim basis. Brandon Staley, who was head coach of the Chargers in 2023 when Moore was the OC there, has been tabbed by Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com as the most likely choice to be Moore’s defensive coordinator. |
| NFC WEST |
| LOS ANGELES RAMSScott Huff, who was the offensive line coach for Mike Macdonald in Seattle in 2024, will be the new tight ends coach for the Rams. Huff had not actually been announced as “fired” by Seattle, but the Seahawks have added John Benton as their new offensive line coach. Klint Kubiak is the new OC with the Seahawks, and Benton was the Saints OL coach last year. Nick Caley, who was the Rams tight end coach, is the new OC in Houston. Got that? |
| SAN FRANCISCOA parting of the ways between the 49ers and WR DEEBO SAMUEL seems more likely as his agent is allowed to pursue a trade. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com: The 49ers have granted wide receiver Deebo Samuel and his agent, Tory Dandy, permission to find a trade partner, Samuel told Adam Schefter of ESPN. Samuel asked the 49ers to trade him during the players’ exit meetings after the season. “It was a hard conversation to have with Kyle [Shanahan] because of the relationship that we have,” Samuel told Schefter. “But I have to do what’s best. I’m more than thankful for the Niners giving me the opportunity of a lifetime, but now I think it’s best that we find another team.” Samuel is scheduled to make $17.55 million in 2025, the final year of a three-year, $71.55 million contract extension. He expressed his frustration during the 2024 season when he made only 51 catches for 670 yards and three touchdowns. His departure in the offseason always seemed a forgone conclusion after the 49ers gave Brandon Aiyuk an extension and drafted Ricky Pearsall in the first round. Now, comes the question of what the 49ers can get for Samuel. Samuel just turned 29, but he has never played a full season. He appeared in 16 games in 2021 when he led the NFL with an 18.2-yards-per-catch average and made his only Pro Bowl. The Rams are seeking to trade wide receiver Cooper Kupp this offseason, too. But QB BROCK PURDY is likely to remain if owner Jed York is to be believed. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com: Next year’s Super Bowl will be played at the 49ers’ stadium and the club is surely hoping to be playing in it. But before that, San Francisco will need to negotiate a new contract with quarterback Brock Purdy. The 49ers aren’t shying away from that, as team owner Jed York confirmed discussions are already underway as he saw Purdy’s agent over the last week. “I know we want Brock here for a long, long time and I believe we will make that happen,” York said, via Josh Dubow of the Associated Press. That’s consistent with what the 49ers have been saying since their season ended and Purdy became eligible for a second contract. The last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy has played his way into being one of the league’s highest-paid QBs. While San Francisco finished 6-11 in 2024, Purdy got through his second season as a full-time starter. He completed 66 percent of his passes for 3,864 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Those numbers were down from 2023, when he led the league with a 113.0 passer rating, completing 69 percent of his throws for 4,280 yards with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. We’ll see when Purdy and the 49ers are able to strike a deal. But with York already engaging Purdy’s agent, both sides appear motivated to get something done sooner than later. |
| AFC WEST |
| KANSAS CITYQB PATRICK MAHOMES has a pretty good idea what went wrong. Judy Bautista ofNFL.com: Mahomes said he would spend the offseason figuring out how to beat what defenses are doing to him. “When defenses are going to stay back, I can’t make bad plays worse,” he said. “Sometimes I get to where I want to make a big play to spark us.” He added he needed to learn to throw the ball away. And until he shows he will take what a defense will give him, they will continue to play back. “They were going to make me be a fundamental quarterback,” Mahomes said. “Play from the pocket and take what they’ll give me. In order to make a team blitz, you have to beat what they’re showing.” The reality for the Chiefs, of course, is that what most would help Mahomes is putting together a more effective offensive line. Even during this portion of the Chiefs dynasty, the offensive line has been a consistent concern, and it was overmatched against the Eagles’ front. On Sunday, the Eagles could pressure with just four rushers. The most critical sequence for the Chiefs occurred midway through the second quarter. Already trailing 10-0, the Chiefs gave up consecutive sacks to Josh Sweat and to Sweat and Jalyx Hunt together. Facing third-and-16, Mahomes tried to put the ball into a tight window for DeAndre Hopkins. DeJean stepped in front of it and was off, headed for a touchdown. Dan Wetzel of YahooSports.com on the legacy of Tom Brady gaining luster on Sunday: Philly was the big winner here Sunday. It was a three-plus hour party for the Eagles-heavy crowd to celebrate a ferocious defense and aggressive offense that avenged a Super Bowl defeat to the Chiefs two years ago. The second-biggest winner? The legacy of Tom Brady, the man providing color commentary for Fox as Mahomes, the game’s best active quarterback, struggled with two interceptions and a lost fumble that led to 17 Eagles points. “Obviously the turnovers hurt,” Mahomes said. “I take all the blame for that. Those early turnovers swung the momentum of the game and they capitalized on them. They scored on the one and then got a touchdown immediately after. That’s 14 points I kind of gave them. It’s hard to come back from that in the Super Bowl.” With Mahomes, fair or not, almost everything is framed in his pursuit of Brady and the title of Greatest of All Time. This was supposed to be another step in that direction, perhaps the inevitable march to exceeding Brady’s seven Super Bowl rings (six in New England, one with Tampa Bay) while claiming an accomplishment Brady never managed: the three-peat. Instead, Mahomes stayed at three — albeit at just 29 years old. Worse though, he was part of a nightmare of a game for the Chiefs, the kind of blowout Super Bowl loss that Brady never experienced. Brady’s three championship game defeats came by a combined 15 points. In one of them he threw for 505 yards. No, this wasn’t all Mahomes’ fault. It was anything but his fault. His offensive line couldn’t stop Sweat (2.5 sacks), Milton Williams (two of his own), Jordan Davis (one) and Jalen Carter (a couple QB hits). His running backs combined for 24 yards. His receivers dropped passes all over the field. He had no help, often running for his life (such as on the DeJean pick). Still, if quarterbacks get the credit for team victories, they can take some hits for a team loss. Mahomes didn’t shy away from it. His second pick came when he was bumped by the pass rush but … “got to find a way to make the throw,” he said. Mahomes finished 21-of-32 for 257 yards and three touchdowns, but 10 of those completions, two of those touchdowns and 109 of those yards came on the final two drives, when the game was long over. More notable were the six sacks taken, the two interceptions and the fumble lost. The first half with just 23 total yards on 20 plays. The six punts and one turnover on downs. The fact that deep into the third quarter there was a chance K.C. could be the first team to be shut out in the Super Bowl. Or when the scoreboard read 40-6. Brady faced some menacing defenses in his Super Bowls, particularly in losses to the New York Giants. It was never a disaster like this though. “I just didn’t play to my standard,” Mahomes said. “I have to be better next time.” When Brady did have his own first-half meltdown — including a pick 6 — against Atlanta, he rallied New England from a 28-3 hole for the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. For the Chiefs on Sunday, it just kept getting worse. This is how the GOAT debate gets settled and it is a credit to Mahomes that he is dead in the middle of it. It reminds of Tiger Woods trying to chase down Jack Nicklaus — the true greats play against the generations. Especially on this stage, where each mistake is magnified. Mahomes has been brilliant in getting Kansas City here; this is his fifth Super Bowl in six seasons. Yet some of the team’s core is aging and while the Chiefs have made it look easy, it isn’t. Brady won three titles in his first four seasons as a starter. Then he didn’t get another for a decade. Mahomes knows how precious the chances are, and how small the window is. “Any time you lose the Super Bowl, it’s the worst feeling in the world,” Mahomes said. “It will stick with you for the rest of your career. You need to capitalize on these … Now it’s how do you respond? Hopefully we can learn from this like the last loss [to Brady’s Bucs] that we had and continue to get better … to make hopefully another run at the Super Bowl.” He’ll almost certainly be back, but for now, after this, the argument for Brady is still intact, and actually a bit wider than before. |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW YORK JETSThe 2025 fate of QB AARON RODGERS, at least in how it pertains to the Jets, could be imminent. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com: The Jets and Aaron Rodgers have been in discussions about his future and a decision on whether the four-time NFL MVP returns to New York could come as soon as this week, per sources. New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey have great respect for Rodgers, a Super Bowl champion and probable first-ballot Hall of Famer whose two seasons in New York so far have been a mess of injuries and underwhelming results. He’s 41 years old and looked it for much of 2024. But keeping Rodgers would give the Jets’ new regime optionality in free agency and the draft by relieving some of the pressure to find an immediate answer at the most important position. If Rodgers stays, he’d almost surely have to take a pay cut from his scheduled 2025 base salary of $37.5 million. (Several decorated veteran QBs — Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees — all took pay cuts at the end of their careers.) Rodgers likely also needs to commit to being with the Jets during the offseason program to learn a new system under first-time offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, something that would benefit all parties. Mike Florio reads the tea leaves: Rapoport notes that, if Rodgers stays, he’ll “almost surely” have to take a pay cut from his current compensation package of $37.5 million for 2025. That makes a split seem even more likely. Rodgers gave up more than $30 million when he arrived in 2023; why would he or should he take less, especially when the market currently tops out at $60 million per year? The challenge becomes managing $49 million in dead money. The most sensible move would be to release him on the first day of the new league year. That would spark a $14 million cap hit in 2025, with $35 million deferred to 2026. Our guess today is the same as it’s been since the report emerged that Johnson suggested benching Rodgers after a Week 4 loss to the Broncos. The Jets, we believe, will move on. The only question is whether he’ll find another new team or retire. For Rodgers, the play-or-not decision will be driven by whether he wants the final act of his career to be one of his worst seasons as a starter — and whether he thinks there’s a place where he’s more likely to have a last season that will be better than his last season with the Jets. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| NEXT YEAR’S ODDSThe results of Super Bowl 59 have changed the futures odds for Super Bowl 60. Doug Greenberg of ESPN.com: The Philadelphia Eagles won their second Super Bowl in franchise history with a thunderous 40-22 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX, a win so momentous that it might have shifted odds for next year’s Super Bowl at sportsbooks across the nation. Going into Sunday’s contest, sportsbooks had lines up — some for several weeks — for the Super Bowl champion in 2026, with the Chiefs the consensus favorites at +600, per ESPN BET. However, when the final whistle blew on 2025’s game, Kansas City was knocked down to +650 and got as long as +750 at some books. Meanwhile, the Eagles flew up the odds board, jumping from a fifth-place +800 to a third-place +700 at ESPN BET. Caesars (+625) and DraftKings (+550) now have Philadelphia as the standalone favorite. The Baltimore Ravens are tied at the top of ESPN BET’s board with the Chiefs at +650, while the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions share the third slot with Philly at +700. Despite their having 2024’s best regular-season record, there is more uncertainty surrounding the Lions next season that extends to sports betting, as some books have them as long as +1100 for next year’s title. There had already been significant action on the market in the weeks leading up to this year’s big game. One of the more compelling teams to see bets is the Washington Commanders, who made an unexpected run to the NFC Championship Game this postseason. ESPN BET lists the Commanders at +2000 and reports that the second-most tickets (7.4%) and handle (9.7%) are backing them, trailing only the Chiefs (10.8% of bets and 13.3% of handle). DraftKings and FanDuel also report Washington in their top five most-bet teams in the 2026 Super Bowl market. Another team getting considerable attention is the Cincinnati Bengals, listed at +1600 on ESPN BET and taking the fourth-most bets (7.2%) there. DraftKings says it took a $5,000 wager at +2000 odds for Cincinnati to win next year’s Super Bowl that would net $100,000 if successful. Additionally, Caesars Sportsbook reports taking a $1,000 bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers at +7000 odds to win $70,000. At the bottom of ESPN BET’s Super Bowl 2026 odds board are the New York Giants at 250-1, which is actually longer than their opener of 200-1; FanDuel lists the Giants at an astounding 400-1 to win next year’s big game. |
| RANDY MOSS RETURNSThis is welcome news about WR Randy Moss per Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: In November, Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss commenced a leave of absence from his ESPN duties, after being diagnosed with bile duct cancer. For the network’s Super Bowl pregame show, Moss will be back. Via Adam Schefter of ESPN.com, Moss makes his return on Sunday morning from New Orleans for the show that begins at 10:00 a.m. ET. It’s great news for Moss, for his fans, and for anyone who has been touched directly or indirectly by the insidious disease. In December, Moss explained that he had a six-hour “Whipple” procedure, to be followed by chemotherapy and radiation. Moss vowed to return. And, for the final pregame show of the season on the biggest day of the year, Moss will be back. Regardless of who wins or loses the game, it’s a massive victory. |
| HALL OF FAME CHANGESMike Sando of The Athletic seems upset that LB Luke Kuechley didn’t get in the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility (the DB does not share that concern): The Hall of Fame shrunk its class for 2025 without raising the bar for enshrinement. Here’s how to fix the problem.The Hall adopted new rules this year to “help ensure that membership in the Hall of Fame remains elite” after some felt too many borderline candidates were earning gold jackets. The changes reduced the class size to four in 2025 after the Hall averaged 7.8 inductees per year from 2015-24, not counting a 20-member Centennial class. Antonio Gates, Eric Allen and Jared Allen earned enshrinement as modern-era players. Sterling Sharpe earned enshrinement as a senior player (retired at least 25 years). The four-member class was the Hall’s smallest since 2005. The changes failed in another sense because, in my view as one of the 49 selectors, the committee did not sufficiently prioritize voting for the most elite candidates regardless of how long other candidates had been waiting. Gates and linebacker Luke Kuechly met the super-elite standard better than the other modern-era finalists, but Kuechly, in his first year of eligibility, was forced to wait. Opinions on players vary. Not everyone will agree with my take on Kuechly relative to the other finalists. But I’m very confident the public outcry would be much louder if, say, Kuechly were excluded over a 10-year period than if Eric Allen, Jared Allen or both were excluded for that long (Eric Allen had been excluded much longer than that, gaining enshrinement in his 19th year of eligibility). Some voters advocate hurrying to enshrine long-eligible candidates before they fall into an abyss with other senior candidates, perhaps never to surface again. Some of these voters also complain about too many first-ballot selections, contending these players push others into the seniors category. This thinking was more defensible when enough slots were effectively available for nearly all finalists to earn enshrinement eventually. Following this line of thinking under the new, more restrictive rules creates a disconnect with the Hall’s mission to improve class quality. That disconnect was on display Thursday night when the Hall introduced a class lacking in both size and star power. Modern-era finalists, 2025Luke Kuechly LB 119.5Antonio Gates TE 115.6Reggie Wayne WR 111.1Torry Holt WR 109.2Steve Smith WR 100.4Jahri Evans G 97.8Terrell Suggs OLB 95.3Adam Vinatieri K 93.7Eli Manning QB 86.0Marshal Yanda G 83.7Jared Allen DE 73.2Darren Woodson S 67.3Eric Allen CB 62.5Willie Anderson T 62.0Fred Taylor RB 55.4 The table above stacks the 15 modern-era finalists for 2025 by how likely each was to earn enshrinement based on Pro Football Reference’s Hall of Fame Monitor score, which takes into account career production and honors. This is not, by any means, how Hall classes should be elected. But it’s a thoughtful, independent point of reference. It’s telling when almost none of the highest-rated players earn enshrinement. Voters must recalibrate. The problem should resolve itself temporarily in 2026 when Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald become eligible. A three-man class with Brees, Fitzgerald and Kuechly would rank sixth among 46 modern-era player classes since 1980 in average Hall of Fame Monitor score (the 2025 class ranks 40th). Bill Belichick could be the choice in the senior/coach/contributor category, further elevating the 2026 class prestige. There are other concerns. In addition to the 15 modern-era finalists listed above, the committee also considered three seniors, one coach and one contributor separately. Sharpe was the only one to earn enshrinement under rules that assure between one and three are enshrined. The Hall would be wise to reconsider slot allocation. Three slots for seniors is too many after 18 were enshrined in the past six years, including 10 in 2020. I see no obvious contributor candidates beyond Robert Kraft. Should that category be in the mix every year? Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin are the strongest coach candidates, pending Belichick’s eligibility. Their candidacies are stronger than those for contributors. The way things are set up now, voters pick three of the five finalists in this combined category, with 80 percent of votes (40 of 49 this year) required for enshrinement. Seven of the broader selection committee members serve on the subcommittee for senior candidates. They could, in theory, vote only for seniors, while the other subcommittee members (nine on the coach committee and seven on the contributor committee) must also choose players. I do not think subcommittee voters are this rigid, but with every vote being so precious, and with players naturally having the edge over coaches and contributors anyway, the 3-1-1 distribution exaggerates the imbalance. We saw the results of that imbalance when only Sharpe qualified, when many voters thought both Sharpe and Holmgren would make it. |
