| NFC NORTH |
| MINNESOTARB AARON JONES speaks placidly as he prepares to return to Lambeau Field. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: Vikings running back Aaron Jones will be in a familiar place on Sunday. The Vikings will be in Green Bay for a meeting with the team that employed Jones for the first seven years of his NFL career. Jones’s run with the Packers came to an end when he declined their request for a pay cut early in the 2024 offseason, but Jones said that the end of the run did nothing to spoil his feelings about a place he called home for a long time. “I understand it’s a business and I made a lot of great relationships there,” Jones said, via Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com. “I have a lot of respect for the people there and the relationships that I’ve made there and there’s nothing but love.” Jones scored 63 touchdowns during his time with the Packers and he celebrated some of the home scores by leaping into the crowd at Lambeau Field. He said he will “definitely” be doing the same thing if he scores this weekend, but the reaction to his arrival in the stands will be a bit different this time.– – -Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com looks at why the Vikings are 3-0. Minnesota VikingsThe wins: at N.Y. Giants (28-6), vs. San Francisco (23-17), vs. Houston (34-7)The most fascinating team of these five has to be the Vikings. We spent much of the offseason discussing their decisions to move on from quarterback Kirk Cousins, draft J.J. McCarthy as the replacement and trade up in Round 1 to take edge rusher Dallas Turner. And so far, the top two picks have played virtually no role in this start; McCarthy is out for the season with a torn meniscus in his right knee, and Turner has one sack across 54 snaps, having missed last week’s win over the Texans with a knee issue. Minnesota already has had to deal with a lot of missing players. McCarthy won’t play this season. Wideout Jordan Addison injured his ankle before the season and has played 28 snaps. Dalton Risner, who started at guard a year ago, is on injured reserve. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is still a ways away from returning after tearing up his knee last season. Ivan Pace, last year’s revelation at linebacker, missed Week 3 with a quad injury. It has been a lot for three weeks. And yet, the Vikings have two of the more impressive wins we’ve seen this season. Blowing out the Giants was one thing, but they were up by two scores for much of the second half against the 49ers, then blew out a 2-0 Texans team by 27 points. At plus-55, they have the third best point differential of any team, trailing only the Bills (plus-64) and Saints (plus-59). Minnesota’s defense has become appointment film viewing on a weekly basis. Last season, coordinator Brian Flores installed an unconventional blitz-heavy, zone-based coverage that seemed to break the rules of what defenses were supposed to do at times. As ESPN reporter Kevin Seifert documented in January, while the innovations yielded the league’s best defense for a 10-week stretch, teams eventually figured out where the Vikings could be attacked. After ranking second in points allowed per drive between Weeks 4 and 14, they fell to 31st in the same category over the final month of the season, going 0-4 in the process. The 2024 defense looks like a better and more sustainable version of the 2023 unit, combining the pre- and post-snap uncertainty that helped create its success with better players who are capable of both masking what they’re going to do and actually executing a variety of responsibilities well. It’s easy to tell Flores is creating havoc on a defense when the opposing quarterback compliments his scheme after a win:– – –Flores is still sending plenty of blitzes — Minnesota’s 39.3% blitz rate is the third highest in football — but most of those pressures are coming on first and second down, where the unit is blitzing at the second-highest rate. On third down, the Vikings only blitz 23% of the time, which is below league average (22nd). The Kyle Shanahan offenses thrive by picking defenses apart on early downs, and Flores has outmaneuvered them in back-to-back weeks. Then, on passing downs, his defense drops into coverage and swallows everything up. This led to a frustrating game for Brock Purdy and an exasperating one for C.J. Stroud, who threw two interceptions and got away with at least a couple more.– – –If I’m wildly optimistic about the defense, I’m a little more concerned about the offense. The McCarthy injury forced the Vikings to turn to Sam Darnold, who signed a one-year deal for about $10 million in March. They have to be thrilled with the early returns. He ranks fifth in the NFL in QBR (73.5) and is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt while throwing a league high eight touchdown passes. Have the Vikings unlocked the Darnold many expected when the Jets drafted him with No. 3 overall in 2018? I’m skeptical. We’ve seen him show off his talent and make some spectacular throws, most notably the 97-yard touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson, but that shouldn’t be a surprise. He always has had an NFL-caliber arm, and he once held the league lead for rushing touchdowns during a hot start to the 2021 season with the Panthers. That season, though, bears some parallels to this one. That version of Darnold and the Panthers got off to a 3-0 start, and he was able to spend virtually all of those games playing from ahead. When Christian McCaffrey went down injured and Carolina started to trail in contests, his hot start quickly dissipated.– – –Even given that he hasn’t been trailing often, there’s been enough of the old Darnold that I’m hesitant to jump onboard with the idea that this is a new quarterback. He has fumbled three times, including a contested pass that went 5 yards backward, and an inexplicable overhand pitch attempt on a play whose timing was busted. Minnesota has recovered all three. He has thrown two bad picks and had, by my count, at least four interceptable passes in his first three games that fell harmlessly to the turf after being defensed. He added a dead-to-rights intentional grounding penalty against the 49ers, admittedly on a play in which there was instant pressure up the A-gap. The truth on Darnold probably falls somewhere between the guy who struggled badly with the Jets and Panthers and the one who’s off to a 3-0 start. The Vikings will inevitably be in situations where he needs to throw, and that’s where we’ll get the best sense of his development over the past few seasons. A matchup with a Packers defense that just walloped Will Levis should be compelling, but the following week will be must-see television: Darnold will get a rivalry game against his old organization, with the Jets coming to town. |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASMike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com seems to jump the gun here, but he’s putting a DefCon 3 watch on the coaching fate of Mike McCarthy: Mike McCarthy deserved better. He might be getting worse. The Cowboys, after a Week 1 win at Cleveland, face a short-week road trip to New Jersey. If they fall to the Giants, and with upcoming games against the Steelers and Lions, the head coach could be in grave danger of getting the boot at the outset of the Week 7 bye. Owner Jerry Jones has only ever fired a coach once during the season. When Jones relieved Wade Phillips of his duties during the 2010 season, Jones had heir apparent Jason Garrett ready to go. This time around, who would take over for McCarthy? The obvious choice is my good friend Mike Zimmer. But the defense currently stinks. That would make it harder to give Zimmer the reins. Maybe it would be special-teams coordinator John Fassel; he served as the interim head coach in L.A. after the in-season firing of Jeff Fisher, eight years ago.– – –RB DERRICK HENRY looked great for the Ravens Sunday he ran over Dallas. Former agent Joel Corry writing at CBSSports.com explores why he’s not a Cowboy. The Dallas Cowboys largely sat on the sidelines during the first wave of free agency when the major signings of players on the open market occur. The biggest splash Dallas made was signing 32-year-old linebacker Eric Kendricks to a one-year, $3 million contract worth a maximum of $3.5 million through incentives as a replacement for a retiring Leighton Vander Esch because he previously played under new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer for several years with the Minnesota Vikings. A glaring need at running back with Tony Pollard departing in free agency to the Tennessee Titans was initially addressed by re-signing Rico Dowdle to a one-year deal worth $1.255 million. Ezekiel Elliott, who was released in March 2023 with a post-June 1 designation, returned on a one-year, $2 million deal worth up to $3 million with incentives in late April after the 2024 NFL Draft. Henry wanted to be a CowboyThe Cowboys fumbled away a chance to significantly upgrade at running back. Derrick Henry, who was the NFL’s second-leading rusher last season, wanted to play for Dallas. The 2020 NFL Offensive Player of the Year suggested playing for the Cowboys would have been the perfect situation because he lives in Dallas during the offseason. “I was like, man, if I’m not in Tennessee or I don’t get to go to Dallas, I’d love to be a Raven,” Henry said on the “Pivot” podcast in early April. Henry signed a two-year, $16 million contract averaging $8 million per year with the Baltimore Ravens in March at the start of free agency. The deal has $9 million fully guaranteed and is worth as much as $20 million because of incentives. The Cowboys never expressed any interest in signing Henry. “I thought it’d been some type of reach out, some type of talks or whatever,” Henry said. “They never reached out, you know what I’m saying? … They weren’t really interested. It is what it is.” Henry got the last laugh on Sunday in Baltimore’s win over Dallas. He ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. Henry added another 23 yards on a reception to total 174 yards from scrimmage (combined rushing and receiving yards). ‘We couldn’t afford Derrick Henry,’ but Dallas could have made it workAfter the loss, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was asked why he didn’t sign Henry. “I like our personnel, Jones said. “We couldn’t afford Derrick Henry.” The personnel Jones likes has been ineffective running the football. The Cowboys rank 30th in the NFL in rushing with 73.7 yards per game. Collectively, Dallas’ running backs have 170 rushing yards and one touchdown on 49 attempts for 3.5 yards per carry this season. The group doesn’t fare any better under advanced metrics. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys are minus 74 rushing yards over expectation to only rank ahead of the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins. By contrast, Henry’s 281 rushing yards are fifth in the NFL. He is tied for the NFL lead with four rushing touchdowns. Henry is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. His 65 rushing yards over expectation are the NFL’s fourth-best mark. Jones is gaslighting the Cowboys fan base again over Henry. After proclaiming Dallas would be “all in” for the 2024 season, Jones dragged his feet on signing wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and quarterback Dak Prescott to contract extensions that ultimately freed up $9.251 million and $10,516,867 of 2024 salary cap room, respectively. Getting either one of these deals done on the same time frame as the NFC East rival Philadelphia Eagles did when making Landon Dickerson the NFL’s highest-paid offensive guard in March would have provided more than enough cap space to accommodate Henry. Baltimore’s 2024 cap number for Henry is $5.105 million, consisting of a $7.79 million signing bonus prorated over the two contract years and a $1.21 million base salary. Putting the delayed Lamb and Prescott signings aside, Dallas still could have worked through a tight salary cap situation to sign Henry. The same deal Henry got with the Ravens could have been done with a lower cap number. That’s because Dallas isn’t a stranger to using dummy/voiding years in contracts. For example, 2025 and 2026 contract years automatically voiding on the 23rd day prior to the start of the 2025 league year (next Feb. 17) were added in a renegotiation of wide receiver Brandin Cooks’ deal when he was acquired from the Houston Texans during the 2023 offseason. Henry’s 2024 cap number could have been as low as $2.768 million by adding three dummy/voiding contract years (2026, 2027 and 2028) to prorate Henry’s $7.79 million signing bonus over five years instead of two years. A $2.768 million first-year cap number consisting of $1.558 million in signing bonus proration and a $1.21 million base salary would have only been $768,000 more than Elliott’s $2 million cap figure for his one-year deal. This isn’t even taking into account that Dallas has a separate $6.04 million 2024 cap charge relating to Elliott from releasing him last year with the post-June 1 designation. There would be a $4.674 million cap charge in 2026 when the three fake years voided with Henry’s signing bonus being prorated at $1.558 million annually on Dallas’ salary cap for the five years. That’s not much more than the $4 million cap charge the Cowboys will have next year for Cook’s contract voiding. It’s conceivable that Henry may have been receptive to taking less money than with the Ravens to play for the Cowboys because of convenience and taxes. He wouldn’t have had to relocate because of his Dallas residence. Texas is one of the few states where NFL teams are located that don’t have a state income tax. Florida, Nevada, Tennessee and Washington are the others. Henry should have an appreciation for the lack of these taxes after spending the first eight years of his NFL career in Nashville with the Titans. Maryland’s top state income tax rate is 5.75%, according to Robert Raiola (@SportsTaxMan on X), who is the director of the Sports and Entertainment Group at PKF O’Connor Davies in the metropolitan New York area. Maryland also has a local income tax with a top rate of 3.2%. I enlisted Raiola to provide his expertise in determining Henry’s net wages from his Ravens contract and what the equivalent contract would be with the Cowboys. Henry’s income from his Ravens contract after federal, state and payroll taxes is $8.3 million under Raiola’s calculations. A two-year, $14 million contract with the Cowboys would give Henry the same net amount in Texas since there aren’t state income taxes. Henry is getting 56.25% of the $16 million from his Ravens contract in the first year. That would be $7.875 million on $14 million from the Cowboys. Henry’s 2024 cap number would have been $4.575 million on a straight two-year deal with a $6.6 million signing bonus and a $1.275 million base salary. By adding three dummy/voiding years, Henry’s 2024 cap number would have dropped to $2.595 million ($1.32 million in signing bonus proration and a $1.275 million base salary). What Cowboys missed out onHenry’s presence on the Cowboys may not have changed the current 1-2 record because of a porous run defense. At a minimum, Henry would have brought more balance to a one-dimensional offense. He also would have added an element that was missing last season with Pollard. At 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, Henry’s rare size for a running back would have made it easier for the Cowboys to close out games on the ground. He could have been a major weapon in red zone situations around the goal line as well. Nonetheless, it wouldn’t have been too hard for Jones to gauge Henry’s interest in taking the smaller contract to play for the Cowboys. He is already quite familiar with Henry’s representation. Henry has the same agent as Prescott. We’ll never know whether Henry would have been open to it or a bigger discount because the Cowboys didn’t bother to try. The above said and all credit to Henry, the DB gets why the Cowboys may not have been excited about a running back approaching his 31st birthday with more than 2,000 carries in his career.- – -How you start has a big say on the final score says Jori Epstein of YahooSports.com. And the Cowboys tend to start really good or really bad. As Tom Brady watched the Dallas Cowboys’ offense try to climb out of a 28-6 third-quarter hole, the seven-time Super Bowl champion acknowledged his analysis might sound trite. “To say, ‘We want to start fast,’ well, of course — we know that,” Brady said. Then he explained why an early lead means more than just a lighter day at the office. “You get to play on your terms; your whole playbook is useful,” Brady said last weekend during the Cowboys’ eventual loss to the Baltimore Ravens. “At this point in the game, [the Cowboys] don’t have their whole playbook. You’ve got basically some downhill runs and then dropback passes, which plays to the strength of this defense.” The Cowboys’ game formulas have routinely reflected wide scoring margins during head coach Mike McCarthy’s time at the helm. Since McCarthy arrived in 2020, 48 of the team’s 70 games have featured a lead or deficit of at least 14, a Yahoo Sports analysis of Pro Football Reference data found. All three of their 2024 games have fallen into that category. The Cowboys’ Week 1 win against the Cleveland Browns marked their 28th victory in 29 games where they have led by at least 14 under McCarthy. Dallas’ Week 2 and 3 losses to the New Orleans Saints and Ravens brought them to 17 losses in 19 games when they have trailed by 14 or more at any point. In short: Get ahead early, and the Cowboys overwhelmingly win. Fall behind early, and the Cowboys’ narrow deficits but rarely overcome them. Dallas’ strength while playing ahead and struggle to retake leads speak to more than just the psychological impact of a lopsided game or the apparent relative strength of an opponent. The trends also reflect how scoring margins impact play-callers more broadly, and how strongly the Cowboys’ approach to roster-building has influenced their ability to respond to each situation. As the Cowboys return to MetLife Stadium on Thursday night a year after walloping the New York Giants 40-0 and 49-17 in their two meetings, Dallas is fresh off two weeks getting a taste of its own medicine. Each NFC East club knows how heavily the early portion of the game will weigh on the outcome. “We’ve got to figure out a way to be better in the game and start the game better,” Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said. “Doing the things we do at a high level … earlier and putting pressure on the defense. When we can do that, then we can run, we can play-action, we can do whatever we want to do. “That’s what I’m looking forward to doing.” What would an early swing mean for Cowboys, Giants play-callers?The Cowboys lost by 25 points to the Saints two weeks ago before trailing by 22 points during the third quarter against the Ravens. So the offense’s play selection has taken a major hit. “We were behind, we were talking about no-huddle and two-minute in the middle of the third quarter,” McCarthy said. “We need to get more run attempts, we need to get in and out of concepts, and I think that in itself will help us.” What type of concepts might the Cowboys be able to integrate more without the deficit? Teams vary on how they factor in situational football and the thresholds at which their playbook starts to shrink due to scoring margin. But one NFC assistant coach estimated “two thirds of your stuff is out the window” when a more hasty offense comes into play. The simplified playbook begins with Brady’s description of dropback passing and downhill runs but it doesn’t end there. “When you’re in two-minute mode and you’re operating at the line of scrimmage, your shifts and motions go out the window,” the NFC assistant said. “All your coverage identifications go out the window because you don’t have time to motion the back out and see who travels with them; you kind of just have to line up and go.” Time becomes too valuable to spend it substituting personnel packages or communicating at length before each snap. Not only do run plays evaporate but also some pass plays married to run looks in the original game plan. “You don’t have the luxury of being able to take 40 seconds every single snap,” another NFC assistant said. “You need chunks. You need to eat up some ground quickly.” Opinions varied on how quickly a team should shift to a hurry-up offense if facing a deficit, the scale usually sliding from third quarter to fourth and from a two-score deficit to three. But it’s no secret how much defenses covet their teams mounting early leads. On Thursday Night Football last week, Aaron Rodgers raised eyebrows when he shoved New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh and mouthed something that was at first intelligible. The magic words: “two-score lead.” Scoring margin drastically impacts Cowboys’ defenseAcross the Jets’ locker room last Thursday at MetLife, offensive skill players knew why Rodgers was so eager to broadcast the 14-0 lead to his head coach. Saleh talked often about that threshold as the point in which he frees up his pass rush to hunt more, his secondary eager to reap the takeaway benefits that become more likely on obvious passing downs. Even so, the Jets’ 14-point lead vs. the Patriots last week was just their seventh game achieving that in Saleh’s four seasons. The Cowboys, in comparison, had led by 14 in 27 games in that stretch. “It’s something we haven’t done much, and we’ve put our defenses in tough spots the three years I’ve been here,” receiver Garrett Wilson said. “So that’s what we emphasized all week: Let’s start fast and see what happens. Seven sacks. The [opponent is] dropping back and has to pass the ball. “That’s the type of stuff that can happen.” The Cowboys know this all too well. When they race out to a lead, McCarthy’s play-call sheet isn’t the only one celebrating. Dallas’ defense shines most when Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Co. can rush the passer, a strength the Saints and Ravens largely neutralized first by running more than passing and then by building such a lead early that they did not need to pass much. Consider that Parsons, an All-Pro, rushed the passer just 17 and 15 times in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively, after wreaking havoc in Cleveland during 48 rushes. “When you’re up that much or down that much, you look at tendencies,” New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll said this week. “You call games differently based on how things are going in the game.” The Cowboys lead the league limiting opponents to a 32.8% success rate when rushing four defenders. But they rank last defending the run — via yardage, scoring and efficiency each. The Giants will look to avoid the early hole they fell in during their 2023 Cowboys matchups in attempts to exploit a clear weakness. “We just want to play complementary football,” Giants outside linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux said. “We got to get stops and the offense is going to continue to do their best to score points. “And that’s how we’re going to come out with one in the end.” |
| NFC WEST |
| SEATTLEA truncated version of Bill Barnwell’s look at the 3-0 Seahawks: Seattle SeahawksThe wins: vs. Denver (26-20), at New England (23-20), vs. Miami (24-3)The Seahawks have played the easiest schedule of these five teams. Their schedule has ranked 31st so far, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), and with their game against the Lions on Monday night, their slate begins to get much more difficult. They are projected to face the toughest schedule of any team over the remainder of the season. There’s still time for FPI’s evaluations to change and the schedule to get easier, but in addition to the Lions, Seattle has games against the Bills, Jets, Packers, Vikings and a pair of matchups against the 49ers. Seahawks fans would also point out those teams will be worried about facing Seattle, and that’s certainly true. New coach Mike Macdonald’s team has sandwiched a pair of comfortable home victories over the Broncos and Dolphins with a narrower win on the road against the Patriots, who were in position to go up six points with four minutes to go on a 48-yard field goal, only for Julian Love to block the kick attempt. The Seahawks kicked a field goal of their own to tie the game, forced a pair of three-and-outs on either side of the regulation whistle, then drove into Patriots territory again for a game-winning field goal from Jason Myers. The story here is unsurprisingly a massive improvement on the defensive side of the ball. The Seahawks haven’t played any great quarterbacks so far, but the hope was always that Macdonald would bring some fresh ideas to a defense that had seemingly grown stale under legendary coach Pete Carroll.– – –Through three games, the Seahawks have jumped all the way to second in DVOA. Macdonald, who formerly was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, is doing this with less notable personnel than what Seattle had in the cupboard, at least on paper, a year ago; it has swapped out Adams and Quandre Diggs for Rayshawn Jenkins and K’Von Wallace at safety and Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks for Tyrel Dodson and currently injured Jerome Baker at linebacker. The results are much better. Macdonald’s reputation was as a master manipulator of pass protection, a coach who would identify how offenses wanted to protect their quarterback and then break their rules, creating free runners while still maintaining seven men in coverage. Teams can’t build an entire defense out of the sim pressure and creepers Macdonald seems to excel with, but they can be a valuable tool to confuse passers and protection schemes. The results have been as advertised.– – –The offense was due for a shift after the arrival of coordinator Ryan Grubb, whose deep passing attack at Washington elevated quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and wideouts Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan into significant draft picks. The Seahawks certainly had the personnel at receiver to work downfield if necessary, but it was unclear what the offense would actually look like come Week 1. We’ve seen two very distinct gameplans over a three-week span. In Week 1, with a healthy Kenneth Walker, Seattle was extremely run-heavy, running the ball at the eighth-highest rate on early downs in neutral situations. Walker turned his 20 carries into 103 yards and a touchdown, but he suffered an oblique injury and has been out since. Over the ensuing two games, the offense has been extremely pass-heavy, throwing nearly 70% of the time on early downs, nearly five full percentage points ahead of any other team.– – –The Seahawks still feel like the biggest mystery of these five teams, in part because they’re still figuring themselves out. They’ve been missing key personnel for some or all of the season, have gone in different extremes with their game plans and have generally dominated middling-to-replacement level quarterbacks. We’ll learn a lot more about their vision as they start to face tougher competition. |
| AFC WEST |
| DENVERIt took awhile to figure it out but LB ALEX SINGLETON is done for the season for the Broncos. Aric DiLalla at DenverBroncos.com: The Broncos have lost one of their top defenders and a team captain. Inside linebacker Alex Singleton suffered a season-ending ACL injury and is being placed on injured reserve, Head Coach Sean Payton announced Wednesday. “He had an ACL in last week’s game, oh, midway through the game,” Head Coach Sean Payton said. “One in which, though, shoot — he played two-thirds of the game with [the injury]. It was kind of remarkable. And then he reported. He felt a little soreness. They looked at it, we looked at it some more and then sure enough. He’ll be scheduled for surgery probably about two weeks from now.” Payton also announced the Broncos are promoting running back Tyler Badie to their active roster. Singleton, who is in his third season with the Broncos, led Denver in tackles in both 2022 and 2023. A season ago, Singleton posted a staggering 177 tackles, which set a franchise mark since at least 1991. Through three games, Singleton was averaging more than 10 tackles an outing. He also recorded an interception on the Broncos’ first defensive series of the year. Despite the injury, Singleton played every snap in the Broncos’ Week 3 win over the Buccaneers. Payton said Singleton’s injury occurred on the play in which Brandon Jones intercepted a pass in the first quarter. Badie, a 2022 sixth-round pick by the Ravens, led the Broncos in rushing in Week 3 with nine carries for 70 yards. The Missouri product has appeared in three career games and totaled 112 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. |
| KANSAS CITYBill Barnwell looks at Kansas City’s 3-0 start with a hard look at fading TE TRAVIS KELCE: Kansas City ChiefsThe wins: vs. Baltimore (27-20), vs. Cincinnati (26-25), at Atlanta (22-17)On one hand, the Chiefs are probably the least surprising team of the five that started 3-0. They’re the Chiefs — the two-time defending Super Bowl champs. I pegged them as one of the teams most likely to improve this season, even given their 11-6 record a year ago. If you asked 100 fans before the season to pick one team that would begin with three straight victories, they probably would have chosen the Chiefs. And yet, if you were judging these teams on how they’ve played through three games, the Chiefs are probably the least impressive of the undefeated teams. They’ve had to play the Ravens and Bengals, but they could very easily be 0-3 if even a play or two in each game had gone differently. They were an inch of Isaiah Likely’s foot away from facing a 2-point conversion for the game in Week 1, needed a last-second field goal from 51 yards out to beat the Bengals in Week 2 and had to come up with a pair of red zone stops in the fourth quarter against the Falcons last Sunday to preserve a five-point victory. One of the biggest reasons for my optimism surrounding Kansas City was the idea it posted an outlier of a turnover margin by its standards last season. It had an average turnover margin of plus-5 between 2018 and 2022, only for that to fall to minus-11 in 2023. Patrick Mahomes had his worst interception rate (2.3%) as a pro, and the team as a whole managed to recover just under 42% of the fumbles in their games. The Chiefs weren’t going to be that sloppy again. Well, things aren’t off to a great start. The Chiefs have a minus-2 turnover margin through three games. They’ve recovered two of the seven fumbles. Mahomes’ interception rate is up all the way to 4.3%, as he has thrown four picks. One of those interceptions was a spectacular one-handed pick by Cincinnati’s Cam Taylor-Britt, but the others have been mistakes from the two-time MVP. He’s not going to throw picks at that rate the rest of the way — and the fumble recovery rate will improve — but Kansas City doesn’t look like it’s about to dominate turnover margin the way I had projected. All the speed the Chiefs brought in this offseason hasn’t unlocked a deep passing attack. Mahomes’s QBR on deep throws is back up to seventh in the league, but he has only completed three deep balls all season, and his six attempts are tied for 26th in the league. In part, that’s because one of the deep threats never actually made it onto the roster, with Marquise Brown suffering what appears to be a season-ending shoulder injury before ever playing a regular-season snap in a Kansas City uniform. Rookie first-round pick Xavier Worthy scored two touchdowns in the season opener, but he’s still a work in progress; miscommunication between Worthy and Mahomes on a third-and-2 mesh concept during the final drive Sunday forced the Chiefs to punt the ball away. It’s also officially time to be concerned about Travis Kelce. While his raw numbers were down last season, he still remained extremely efficient. A good chunk of what was perceived to be a decline was actually his routes and snap counts going down in an effort to keep the star tight end fresher throughout the season. He finished with 93 catches for 984 yards and five scores. Kelce was every bit as good in the first half of 2023 as he had been during the 2022 campaign, though his numbers did slow during the second half. Through three games this season, Kelce has been anonymous. He has eight catches for 69 yards across 82 routes, good for 0.8 yards per route run. In the first half of 2023, he averaged 2.6 yards per route run. Even during the second half, when his numbers declined, he was still above-average for a tight end at 1.6 yards per route run. He ranks 25th in yards per route run now, ranking between Jordan Akins and Cade Otton. While Kelce’s game has been about agility and craftiness, the data from NFL Next Gen Stats suggests he’s slowing down. His average maximum speed on routes is down to 11.8 miles per hour, having fallen in each of the five prior seasons. His average maximum speed on all snaps is down more significantly; he’s averaging a max speed of 10.0 miles per hour. He was at 10.8 miles per hour a year ago and between that figure and 11.5 miles per hour as his average maximum speed in each season between 2018 and 2022. Among the 30 tight ends who have run at least 50 routes this season, Kelce’s average maximum route speed ranks 29th. His median maximum route speed ranks 24th. Those figures aren’t enough to eliminate him as a viable receiver — he ranks ahead of Dallas’ Jake Ferguson in both categories — but the combination of the decline in his peak speed and his limited involvement in the passing game so far are concerning. It’s only a three-game sample — and he had a 41-yard catch-and-run called back for holding on left tackle Kingsley Suamataia — but there’s at least reason for alarm that Kelce might have slipped to the ranks of the ordinary after being a transcendent pass catcher for so long.– – –The Chiefs will be fine. The interceptions will come down, and the post-Sneed secondary will settle in. The defensive line has been great, and outside of left tackle, so has the offensive line. Rashee Rice looks like a No. 1 receiver. As someone who thought the Chiefs had a 15-win season in them, though, they haven’t played at that level so far, even if they’ve won their first three games. But Nate Taylor of The Athletic defends Kelce: No, the Kansas City Chiefs don’t have a Travis Kelce problem. Three weeks into the NFL’s season, an increasing number of people — fans, analysts and even former players — have come to a rather quick conclusion that Kelce, the Chiefs’ star tight end and future Hall of Famer, is washed. A has-been. An NFL legend who is deep into the twilight of his career, a player the Chiefs cannot rely on for pivotal highlights the way they used to, even as the franchise pursues an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl victory. The argument is simple: Just look at Kelce’s stats. In three games, Kelce’s production has been lower than anyone expected — eight receptions on just 12 targets for 69 yards and no touchdowns. Not great. Plus, for the first time this season, Kelce didn’t look like his usual gregarious, jovial self during Sunday night’s game against the Atlanta Falcons. NBC’s cameras captured Kelce, who turns 35 next week, sitting on the bench just before halftime with a dejected, withdrawn expression. At times, even after certain plays, he looked a bit disinterested. Cris Collinsworth, NBC’s game analyst and a former NFL receiver, struggled to figure out why Kelce was struggling. “I’m just flabbergasted,” Collinsworth said before halftime. “I mean, one game, big deal. Two games, all right. This is the third game now where we have not seen the magic of (quarterback Patrick) Mahomes and Kelce, and I can’t really explain that one.” The truth, when you watch the all-22 film, is that Kelce is getting open. Quite a bit, actually. More than you think — or what you can see on TV. As a route runner, Kelce has created an average separation of 3.5 yards, tied for 13th among tight ends, according to Next Gen Stats. Another star player has an average separation of 3.6 yards this season. That player is Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who has produced 14 receptions on 21 targets for 273 yards and three touchdowns. So why are Kelce’s stats so poor? “Are we not allowed to say that he’s out of shape, that he’s been partying all offseason?” NFL analyst Todd McShay said Monday on “The Ryen Russillo Podcast.” McShay continued: “He’s been jet-setting around with the most famous person (Taylor Swift) probably in the entire world, that he’s drinking, going to the U.S. Open and he’s got cocktails in. “He’s one of the best to ever do it. … He’s not in the same shape. He’s not the same. I don’t see the same explosiveness. I see him wearing down a bit.” McShay is incorrect. While his offseason itinerary was crammed — with filming national commercials, guest starring in the new FX series “Grotesquerie” and flying to Europe several times to attend Swift’s concerts — Kelce was diligent about training, though his routine was different. Wherever Kelce was,one of his three personal trainers — Alex Skacel, Andrew Spruill and Laurence Justin Ng — usually was with him. Since the Chiefs began training camp in mid-July, Kelce has not missed a practice. He is healthy and has been on the field a ton, playing 85 percent of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps (164 of 193). Let’s present another theory, this one from Rodney Harrison, an NBC analyst and former NFL safety. “He’s busy, he’s got a lot on his plate,” Harrison said of Kelce during Sunday’s postgame show. “But when you’re in that situation, you’ve got to forget about everything else and you’ve got to focus 100 percent on football. That’s the main responsibility. … He’s a good player still, but I don’t believe he’s a great, great player.” How can we forget that earlier this year, in January and February, Kelce had one of the greatest postseasons for a tight end in NFL history? In the Chiefs’ four-game postseason run, Kelce had 32 receptions for 355 yards and three touchdowns to help the team become back-to-back champions. In Super Bowl LVIII, Kelce reached a top speed of 19.68 mph, according to Next Gen Stats, on a 22-yard reception against man-to-man coverage from All-Pro 49ers linebacker Fred Warner to set up the Chiefs’ game-tying field goal. It was Kelce’s fastest speed as a ball carrier in seven seasons. Kelce declined to talk to reporters after Sunday’s game, but Mahomes tried his best to explain what his teammate is experiencing on the field. “It’s crazy because the respect factor (opposing defenses) have for Travis is just unreal,” Mahomes said. “It’s well-deserved, but we’re calling a lot of plays for Travis, and it’s, like, two or three people are going to him. He understands. That’s the great thing about him. He wants to make an impact on the game, but he wants to win.” Mahomes is right, to a point. At no point in Sunday’s game did the Falcons dedicate three defenders to guard Kelce. In fact, the Falcons didn’t double-team Kelce often, instead playing zone coverage to dissuade Mahomes from throwing deep passes. The Falcons’ strategy was understandable. Mahomes didn’t complete a single pass where the ball traveled more than 20 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs counterattacked with 27 designed running plays, 13 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage and a bunch of plays where Kelce was used as a decoy. Coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy are not calling as many plays as they used to where Kelce appears to be Mahomes’ primary option. That role has been transferred to receiver Rashee Rice, an ascending second-year player who has developed into the Chiefs’ No. 1 receiver. Against the Falcons, Rice led the Chiefs with 12 receptions on 14 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown, many of his routes the type that Kelce has executed against zone coverage. |
| AFC NORTH |
| CLEVELANDNora Princiotti in The Ringer excoriates the Browns for the QB DESHAUN WATSON mess: You’d think the Cleveland Browns would be running out of ways to embarrass themselves by this point. Back in 2022, fed up—apparently—with not having won a division title this century, the franchise decided to sell its soul by trading three first-round picks (plus whatever affection several decades of being the NFL’s lovable losers had earned them) for quarterback Deshaun Watson. At the time of the trade, more than 20 women had filed lawsuits against Watson, saying he committed sexual misconduct and/or sexual assault during massage appointments. But the Browns made the trade, and they didn’t just agree to pay Watson an unprecedented $230 million guaranteed for five years; they also wrote bespoke language into the contract that protected Watson from the financial fallout of the 11-game suspension he served that year. The Browns did all that for football reasons—or at least that seems to be their justification. Well. Three weeks into this NFL season—Watson’s third with the Browns—Watson is one of the worst quarterbacks in football. Other than Bryce Young, who has been benched by the Panthers, he ranks last in the league in total quarterback rating, yards per attempt, yards per dropback, success rate, and explosive play rate. He’s thrown three touchdowns and two interceptions in three games, and the Browns have yet to score more than 20 points in a game. Watson has been sacked a league-high 16 times, eight of which came in a home loss to the Giants last Sunday. There’s bad, there’s historically bad, and then there’s historically bad for the Cleveland Browns, and Watson has been all three. So far, he’s having the least productive start to a season by any Browns quarterback this century. Basically the whole back of the jersey. You’ll note that, were it not for dear Brady Quinn in 2009, Watson would occupy the bottom two rungs on that list. Even so, Watson’s performance to start last season ranked third worst. And yet, it was not exactly hard to see this coming. Around 11 months ago, when Watson was in and out of the Browns’ lineup with conflicting information coming out about his health, I wrote this, describing his baseline performance: In the nine-game sample size of his Cleveland tenure … he’s averaged just 198 passing yards per game, completed 60.3 percent of his passes, and thrown touchdowns on 4 percent of them and interceptions on 2.6 percent. His yards per pass attempt is 6.5. All those figures are markedly worse than how he played in his 53 games as the Houston Texans starter. … He may get better, but who Watson is today is a quarterback of average accuracy who is jittery in the pocket and often seems to be sensing pressure that isn’t there. The sample size is now 15 games, but pretty much everything else is the same. Watson has gone from a quarterback acquired under morally reprehensible circumstances who hadn’t played well in three years to a quarterback acquired under morally reprehensible circumstances who hasn’t played well in four years. There are simply no football excuses left. He’s had time to learn Kevin Stefanski’s system. At least this season, he’s healthy. There’s no reason to think Watson will become anything close to the quarterback he was in Houston ever again. The Browns still owe him nearly $100 million, and the NFL is currently investigating him after a woman filed a lawsuit earlier this month in which she says Watson sexually assaulted her during a date in 2020. And as that ugly, uncomfortable reality sinks in, the Browns must figure out what to do with the uncuttable player on the untradable contract who’s currently playing some of the worst football in the league. There are few options—none of them good—for how this will all end. The biggest short-term question is whether Watson will be benched this season. The Athletic has reported that he probably won’t be. Given how poor his play has been through three games, if Stefanski isn’t making that move now, it’s hard to imagine what level Watson’s play would have to sink to in order for that to change. Still, it’s not hard to believe that backup Jameis Winston (who, it’s worth noting, served a suspension in 2018 following an NFL investigation into a report from an Uber driver who said the then-Buccaneers quarterback touched her in an inappropriate and sexual manner in 2016) would give the Browns a better chance to win. Winston has started only 10 games since 2020 and is no one’s idea of an ideal franchise quarterback, but neither was Joe Flacco last year when he came off the couch and went 4-1, helping the Browns clinch a wild-card playoff spot when Watson was hurt. Somewhat ironically, the Browns are a team that should be set up to win with average quarterback play—just like they did last season with Flacco. As far as football and team-building philosophies go, they aren’t so different from San Francisco or Minnesota: teams that have won (or are winning) with stellar defense and system quarterbacks Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold, respectively. And perhaps in turning to Winston, one benefit for Cleveland would be an increased willingness to play to those strengths. Watson’s on-field struggles have been emphasized by the fact that, while he plays, the Browns seem intent on running their offense as if he’s his prime self—a guy who could navigate a pocket and throw on the run and accurately complete deep passes. Despite his sky-high sack rate, Watson has dropped back more than any other quarterback this season. Against the Giants, whose lone defensive strength is their pass rush, Watson handed the ball off just five times in the first half. Odds are, at some point, the Browns will agree to eat a major dead salary cap charge to move on from Watson. The question is when and how large. Last offseason, the Broncos set a record when they agreed to take an $85 million dead cap hit to cut Russell Wilson. Should the Browns cut Watson after this season, his dead cap charge would total $172 million, according to Over the Cap. If the Browns took this on, they couldn’t roster an entire team of players—not even on minimum-salary deals. So that’s probably out. If they wait another year and cut Watson after the 2025 season, they’ll take on a $99 million dead cap charge. That’s massive but not so much worse than what the Broncos did with Wilson. NFL teams are starting to be willing to take these massive charges if it helps them rip the Band-Aid off. I think that’s the most likely scenario. But there’s an unfortunate wild card at play: the lawsuit. Earlier this month, another woman filed a lawsuit against Watson, saying that he had sexually assaulted her. She said it took place in October 2020, on a date with Watson at her apartment. She described a more violent manner of assault than the other 24 women who filed suits for assault or harassment between 2020 and 2022 (23 of those suits have been settled). So far, very little has happened in response. The NFL has said that it is investigating the claims; the Browns have said that they’re deferring to the NFL’s investigation. The league is not placing Watson on the commissioner’s exempt list based on the new suit, per the precedent set in 2021, when he was on the Texans’ active roster all year. There is some question (albeit a gross one) of whether another lawsuit could provide the Browns with a way to get out of Watson’s albatross of a contract. According to NBC’s ProFootballTalk, language in the deal required Watson to disclose in 2022 any potential future legal exposure of this kind (the actual wording uses the phrase “moral turpitude”). If Watson did not tell the Browns this additional lawsuit could be coming, they could, in theory, try to claim he violated the terms of his deal. But it’s hard to read the tea leaves when it comes to whether or not Cleveland was expecting this. According to Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer, it did not include the same protections for income against suspension for 2024, 2025, or 2026 in Watson’s original deal that it did for 2022 and 2023. The Browns also restructured Watson’s deal this past August, essentially converting salary into bonus money to spread out the cap charges and free up salary cap space for this year. That’s not a move a team does if it has any long-term concerns about its quarterback. It feels twisted to even consider that another lawsuit against and potential NFL suspension for Watson might be the thing that gets the Browns out of their Faustian bargain. If that ends up happening, it would be the ultimate admission that, despite making testaments to his character, the Browns only ever looked at Watson’s behavior in terms of what he could give them on the field. But we already knew that. The Browns’ decision was indefensible in 2022, and it’s indefensible now. That was never going to change, no matter how well or poorly Watson played. To say the trade and the contract have not been “worth it” is to acknowledge Cleveland’s hollow premise that there’s a world in which they could have been. Trading for Watson was a franchise-altering error from the jump, one that, no matter what they try, may be impossible to recover from. |
| PITTSBURGHBill Barnwell looks at Pittsburgh’s 3-0 start: Pittsburgh SteelersThe wins: at Atlanta (18-10), at Denver (13-6), vs. L.A. Chargers (20-10)As someone who predicted the Steelers would decline for the third consecutive offseason, let’s just say things aren’t going well. Mike Tomlin’s team is off to a great start, leading the league in scoring defense. It’s already two games up on the rest of the AFC North. I feel the same way about my prediction that Doug Pederson feels about the Jaguars. Everything is on the table. We’re not very good right now. Is what the Steelers are doing sustainable? Of course not, but when has that ever mattered before? On one level, they have benefited from playing a slate of limited quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins clearly wasn’t fully healthy in the season opener, and Justin Herbert was dealing with a high ankle sprain even before he was forced to leave Sunday’s game. Those two veterans sandwiched Bo Nix, a rookie who is still feeling his way into running an NFL offense. If you argued that all three of those quarterbacks have looked better against other opponents than they have against the Steelers, though, you would be right. Tomlin’s defense is thriving by winning in the places every defense wants to win: third down and the red zone. The Steelers are allowing their opponents to convert on just 21.9% of their third downs, the best rate for any team. Likewise, they’ve allowed just one touchdown on six red zone trips. In a league in which offenses are converting 52% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, the Pittsburgh defense has held opponents to a 17% success rate on forays inside the 20. We know it’s not realistic for a team to come up with stops when it needs them most if it’s not playing well elsewhere on defense. The Steelers, though, have been great just about everywhere. That third-down success rate is supported by a defense that ranks third in expected points added (EPA) per play on first and second down. The red zone performance doesn’t seem wild considering they rank third in EPA per play outside the red zone. For perspective, the best third-down defense in terms of conversion rate last season was Cleveland at 29.1%, and the best red zone defense was Tennessee, which allowed opposing offenses to score on 37.7% of its red zone trips. No team holds teams below 25% conversion rates on third down or in the red zone over a full season, but Pittsburgh has every right to rank among the best teams in those categories the rest of the way, even if it likely will regress toward the mean. Justin Fields and the offense are doing exactly what they’re supposed to do as part of the Steelers’ formula to win games: avoid turnovers. Fields’ interception in Sunday’s win over the Chargers was their only giveaway of the season. They have fallen on both of their fumbles on offense. Fields had a 3.1% interception rate over three seasons with the Bears. He’s at 1.3% in Pittsburgh. The other key improvement Fields has made is eliminating what had been his biggest weakness: taking sacks. He had a 12.3% sack rate in Chicago, with double-digit rates in all three of those campaigns. Through three games in Pittsburgh, his sack rate is 7.4%. That’s an improvement from last in the league over the prior three seasons to 14th-best. If those changes don’t sound significant, they are. Based on his Bears rates, Fields would have thrown 2.3 picks and taken 10 sacks this season. Instead, he has thrown a lone interception and taken six sacks. Eliminating those negative plays keeps the offense on schedule and avoids making things more difficult for the defense. It also keeps the team in range for field goals, and the Steelers are converting a league high 32.3% of their drives into three points. Is the offense doing much beyond that? Not yet.– – –The most pressing concern for the Steelers might be injuries. They’re facing one of the most significant injury lists in the AFC, especially along the line of scrimmage. Nate Herbig tore his rotator cuff before the season, while rookie right tackle Troy Fautanu suffered a serious knee injury in practice and could miss significant time. Guard Isaac Seumalo hasn’t yet played in 2024 as he battles a pec injury, although he has avoided injured reserve, which suggests he should be able to return in the coming weeks. There’s more. Alex Highsmith, the team’s second best pass rusher behind T.J. Watt, left the Chargers game with a groin injury that should keep him out for the next couple of games. Running back Najee Harris was wearing a sling in the facility this week while recovering from an arm injury, while Jaylen Warren was pulled from the Chargers game by Tomlin because of his limitations while dealing with a knee issue. Corner Cory Trice, who had the game-sealing interception against the Broncos, was also placed on injured reserve. The Steelers keep on ticking on, though. Nick Herbig stepped in for Highsmith and had two sacks against the Chargers. Cordarrelle Patterson has a track record of thriving under Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Fields has stepped in admirably for Wilson. What would break other teams only seems to fuel the Steelers. And with games against the Colts, Cowboys, Raiders, Jets and Giants before their Week 9 bye, there are plenty of winnable games coming up for Tomlin & Co. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| JACKSONVILLESunday could be the last chance for the Jaguars to contribute to the NFL playoff picture this season. Kevin Patra of NFL.com: he Jacksonville Jaguars are one of three 0-3 teams to start the 2024 campaign following Monday night’s embarrassing loss in Buffalo. Given the sky-high expectations entering the season, including owner Shad Khan stating “winning now” is expected, the disappointment has hammered Duval. For coach Doug Pederson, in his third season in Jacksonville, the answer to getting on track is simple: Return to basics. “If you want to be an elite football team, it’s led from within, it’s led by the players,” Pederson said Tuesday, via the team’s official website. “Listen: The speeches are done. The speeches are over. We don’t need any more rah-rah stuff. It’s just time to go play football, fix the mistakes and do everything we can to play our best football this weekend.” Pederson added that his discussions with Khan remain positive despite the struggles. “We’ve had great conversations before and after football games,” Pederson said. “Obviously, those conversations are private and all of that. He’s very supportive, has been supportive and he continues to be supportive of what we’re doing.” Jaguars drop to 0-3 after Bills beatdown in prime time: ‘We’re not a very good football team’ It’s not just the 0-3 start that has signaled panic in Jacksonville. The Jags are 1-8 since Week 13, 2023, the worst record in the NFL over that span. The only win came in Week 17 versus Carolina, with C.J. Beathard as the starter. Trevor Lawrence’s struggles have been pervasive this season. Through three games, the highly-paid quarterback is averaging 186.7 pass yards per game with two touchdown tosses and one interception for a 75.1 passer rating. It marks the fewest pass YPG and pass TDs in the first three games of a season in his career. The only qualified QBs with fewer pass TDs than Lawrence in 2024 are Bryce Young (0), Bo Nix (0) and Jacoby Brissett (1). “We have to take a hard look at ourselves, first internally as far as coaching goes,” Pederson said, “and then making sure we are presenting the plans with great communication. Look: It’s a two-way street, too. Coaches coach and players play. “We have to make sure our players are playing fast and not making the mistakes that are showing up.” Sunday gets no easier for Pederson’s squad, which heads to Houston to face a Texans squad that got blown out last week in Minnesota. DeMeco Ryans’ defense has allowed 163.0 pass yards per game and is one of four clubs that have not allowed 200-plus yards in any game in 2024. |
| AFC EAST |
| BUFFALOBill Barnwell looks at Buffalo’s 3-0 start and declares them the best team in football – at the moment: Buffalo BillsThe wins: vs. Arizona (34-28), at Miami (31-10), vs. Jacksonville (47-10)What was supposed to be a transitional year turned out to be a transitional half. The Bills looked sloppy during the first two quarters of their opener against the Cardinals; at the two-minute warning, they trailed 17-3. Since then, they’ve outscored their opponents by a combined total of 109-23, scoring touchdowns on more than half of their offensive drives that haven’t involved kneel-downs. They appear to have sent the Jaguars into an existential crisis Monday night, with the Buffalo offense scoring touchdowns on its first five drives en route to a 47-10 blowout. The star, of course, has been Josh Allen. Through three weeks, his 92.6 QBR is the best of any passer in football by more than 11 points. It’s the best QBR posted by any quarterback over the first three weeks of the season since 2007, the first year for which QBR exists. And yes, that means Allen has been better through the first three weeks of 2024 than Tom Brady was across the first three weeks of the 2007 season, when he was about to post historic numbers and win his first MVP award. Allen stands as the favorite to claim that hardware, albeit with a long ways to go. The Allen story is simple: He’s combining all of the good things that typically come with Josh Allen football and virtually none of the problems. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet. He lost a fumble in the Arizona game but hasn’t otherwise coughed up the football. On top of that, he’s continuing to avoid sacks at league-best rates, with opposing pass rushers taking him down on just 2.7% of dropbacks. When a quarterback doesn’t turn the ball over, doesn’t take sacks and has the ability to do Josh Allen things, he’s going to post historically impressive numbers. While Allen has the arm strength to make any throw, he’s picking teams apart in the intermediate range. Allen ranked 18th in QBR last season on throws in the range of 11-20 air yards, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt. This season, he leads the league with a 99.9 QBR on those throws, going 9-of-11 for 169 yards and three scores, an average of 15.4 yards per throw. It helps when Khalil Shakir, seemingly Allen’s new top target, has caught all 14 of the passes thrown in his direction. Before the season, it wouldn’t have been shocking to imagine Allen playing lights-out football for three weeks. The bigger concern for the Bills seemed to be the defense, which was losing stalwart defensive backs Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. Things got worse when star linebacker Matt Milano tore a biceps muscle in August, then became even more harrowing when top cornerback Taron Johnson went down after just seven snaps in the opener. Terrel Bernard, who inherited the top linebacker spot after Milano’s injury, suffered a pectoral strain early in Week 2 and hasn’t been on the field since. And yet, somehow, the Bills are thriving on defense.– – –As is often the case for a McDermott-coordinated defense, Buffalo is thriving by avoiding the big play. It’s the only team to avoid giving up 30 yards or more on a single play this season, which it has done despite facing the third-most snaps of any defense. The average team gives up a 30-plus yarder about once every 50 snaps. The Bills haven’t given up one in 203. Combine a defense that doesn’t give up big plays, an offense that doesn’t make mistakes and a quarterback who is capable of the seemingly impossible, and what do you get? Ten straight quarters of irresistible football. Things are about to get tougher for the Bills, who have a three-game road trip against the Ravens, Texans and Jets on deck, but make no mistake: This is comfortably the best team in football through three games. |
| MIAMIA practice squad player just in town could start on the Monday Night ESPN stage for Miami. David Hyde in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel on QB TYLER HUTNLEY: Before seeing why Tyler Huntley is an emergency fit for this Miami Dolphins offense, before understanding how his release time on passes is similar to Tua Tagovailoa’s trademark, go back and see what Dennis Erickson did in the fall of 2014. The former University of Miami coach was the offensive coordinator at Utah when a South Florida friend tipped him off to this Hallandale High quarterback who was too small at 5 foot 11 to attract many recruiters. Too thin. Everyone said so. But Erickson watched the videotape and booked his recruiting trip to South Florida. “What jumped out at me were his athletic ability and his accuracy,” Erickson said. “I was glad no one was recruiting him.” There, in short form, is the story of Huntley’s career. “He grew two inches after his senior season and all of a sudden all these schools wanted him,” says his Hallandale coach, Dameon Jones, now the Chaminade coach. There, too, is the appendix to his story the Dolphins would love to repeat. A late bloomer who succeeded. A story no one was sure of coming through again? The question of the week is whether coach Mike McDaniel starts veteran Tim Boyle or Huntley in a suddenly vital game against the winless Tennessee Titans on Monday night. The case for Boyle is he’s a 29-year-old reserve of six teams who moved the ball better Sunday in Seattle than Tagovailoa’s replacement, Skylar Thompson. Boyle also threw a catchable touchdown pass that tight end Durham Smythe didn’t catch. He’s been in the system a few weeks, too, so has to be more comfortable than Huntley, who arrived last week. Huntley’s case is simple: The 26-year-old had some limited success in NFL starts, going 2-2 in his extended chance with the Baltimore Ravens in 2022 while completing 67 percent of his passes for 658 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. But the real fit is some additional numbers that might reflect why the Dolphins signed him off Baltimore’s practice squad. His release times were from 2.47 to 2.59 seconds in those 2022 games, according to NextGen Stats — close to Tua’s 2.4 this season. Such quick, accurate throws — see Huntley’s 67-percent on completions — define this system that McDaniel hard-wired to Tagovailoa’s talents. (Thompson wasn’t exactly slow in Seattle — averaging 2.67 seconds on his release). The other number: Huntley averaged 27.4 yards rushing in his five starts over the past two season. So, if chaos happens, he has enough running ability and speed (draft-timed at 4.54 seconds in the 40 yard dash) to create something. “Sneaky fast,” Huntley was labeled by Neru N’Shaka, who was Huntley’s receiver for three years at Hallandale and now a Chaminade assistant. “He’s always been athletic that way.” N’Shaka remembers as an eighth grader how receivers wanted to wear gloves in catching Huntley’s passes. “Coaches wouldn’t let us, and he threw so hard it stung our hands,” N’Shaka said. “He was this little, scrawny kid, not even 120 pounds as a freshman, but he could throw,” Jones said. “He always had a big arm on him.” Huntley did well enough by his senior year to be Florida Gatorade Player of the Year and the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Small School Player of the Year in Broward (as future Baltimore teammate Lamar Jackson was that season in Palm Beach). Jones ticks off the list of Huntley’s talents by that point in his career: Smart, strong, good leader — and tough? “We should’ve won the state championship his senior year but he got a high ankle sprain in beating American Heritage,” Jones said. “He played the next game but couldn’t bend over for the ball if it was by his leg. But you weren’t telling him he wasn’t going to play and he still threw for close to 500 yards. We ended up losing, but I’ve never seen something like that in my life.” Erickson, as the first college believer, landed not just Huntley to Utah but Hallandale and future NFL running back Zack Moss. “That started the success that Utah’s had to this day,” said Erickson, who coached them for two years. “(Huntley) just had that good feel for the game. I don’t know if you teach that. We’d spread it out, and he was good with anything (we) did. He can avoid the rush pretty well and make plays. He was smart. Guys enjoyed playing with him — a leader.” Huntley went undrafted in 2020. The Dolphins are his third team as a reserve. One issue in the decision on whether to start him will be how comfortable he is with this system in his second week. Desperate times might decide that. Erickson remembers all his Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks were hurt before the 1996 finale so he brought in former UM quarterback Gino Torretta. They used play calls from their Hurricanes days together and beat the Oakland Raiders. “I remember (Raiders owner) Al Davis saying, ‘Gino frickin’ Toretta beat us,” Erickson said. Maybe Tennessee says that Monday night if Huntley or Boyle beats it. The Dolphins wouldn’t care. They need a win any way it comes. Maybe the hometown kid, the late bloomer in so many ways, can bloom again as a NFL starter to help save this season. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| TOP FRONT OFFICES40 NFL execs voted for the top “front offices” in the NFL in a panel organized by The Athletic (Jeff Howe, Mike Sando, Mike Jones and Dianna Russini share the byline): For a league bound by parity, the NFL is ruled by the organizations with the most stability. That all starts up top. A stable owner and a trustworthy front office are non-negotiable ingredients to sustained success on the field. The best front offices not only identify talent, they share a vision with each department of the organization and don’t allow office politics to interfere with the priority of winning games. Or, as one high-ranking executive surveyed for this project said: “It is the balance and interconnectivity of all the different departments and decision-making that goes into the product on the field and the plan for the future. How you balance each of those is the challenge of a good front office.” The Athletic polled 40 league insiders, including 35 high-ranking executives and five coaches, to compile the NFL Front Office Rankings. Respondents, who were granted anonymity for both their votes and conversations discussing them in exchange for their candor, were asked to submit their top-five front offices, in rank order, based on each franchise’s football operations side. (Respondents were not allowed to vote for their own team.) The results favored stability, with eight of the top 10 teams featuring general managers who have been in place for at least five years. Four of the top six teams, including the top two, promoted their GMs from within. “Ultimately, it’s about results,” the high-ranking exec added, “but how you operate day to day is about your process. (Do) you have a sound process in the draft, free agency (and with) contract structure? Are you matching your aggressive roster building with maybe the life cycle of your team? All of those things go into what (makes) the best front offices.” The scoring system: First-place votes were worth 10 points, second-place seven, third-place five, fourth-place three and fifth-place one. (One respondent split his fifth-place vote among two teams.) 1. Baltimore RavensTotal points: 259 (15 first-place votes, appeared on 36 ballots)Owner: Steve BisciottiGeneral manager: Eric DeCostaHead coach: John Harbaugh It’s been more than five years since Ozzie Newsome stepped down as Baltimore’s GM. His disciples have kept the Ravens in contention nearly every year since. DeCosta, who was a player personnel intern for the Ravens’ inaugural season in 1996 and has been with the organization ever since, took the reins from Newsome in 2019, and Baltimore’s 56 victories over his first five seasons were tied for the third-most in the league. DeCosta handled quarterback Lamar Jackson’s complicated contract situation, working past a trade request to execute a five-year, $260 million extension in 2023. Jackson then won his second MVP award last season. From a talent acquisition standpoint, DeCosta has steered the Ravens toward the trade for linebacker Roquan Smith, has a strong track record in the first (safety Kyle Hamilton, wide receiver Zay Flowers) and middle rounds (defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike, tight end Isaiah Likely), landed a priority free agent in running back Derrick Henry and created an environment where a veteran like linebacker Kyle Van Noy can thrive. Of course, those are just a handful of examples. DeCosta also got out in front of the potential loss of receiver Hollywood Brown, flipping him and a third-rounder to the Arizona Cardinals for a first-round pick that netted center Tyler Linderbaum. “Consistency,” an NFC executive said of the Ravens’ front office. “They know what a Raven is and understand how to win with those guys.” That’s a common refrain when discussing DeCosta and his staff. They recognize the types of players and people who will be successful in their program, and they’re certainly aided by the fact that head coach John Harbaugh has manned the sidelines since 2008. All involved know what to expect from one another. The Ravens’ influence can be felt in many buildings across the NFL. Current general managers Joe Hortiz (Los Angeles Chargers) and Joe Douglas (New York Jets) have experience under Newsome, the architect of Baltimore’s two Super Bowl winners and someone commonly referred to as the best GM in history. Chicago Bears assistant general manager Ian Cunningham, considered a likely future GM, also worked for Newsome. 2. Kansas City ChiefsTotal points: 174 (13 first-place votes, appeared on 25 ballots)Owner: Clark HuntGeneral manager: Brett VeachHead coach: Andy Reid Reid and Veach are a formidable 1-2 punch for the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. Veach, who began his career as a coaching intern under Reid with Philadelphia in 2004, followed his mentor to Kansas City. Veach played a significant role in the decision to draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017 (under then-GM John Dorsey, who he succeeded weeks after that draft). Veach rebuilt the offensive line and armed defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo with a talented young defense that ranked among the top 10 in scoring defense four of the past five years. “Veach grew up around Andy, so I think there is a very clear vision on what types of players they’re looking for and what works in their system,” an executive said. “Along with the winning comes continuity, and I think that staff as a whole has a very strong understanding of what works there. I think Veach and (assistant general manager Mike) Borgonzi are good evaluators. They have an eye for talent along with an understanding of what plays in the league.” While Mahomes’ deal could be reworked in the not-so-distant future, he’s currently the greatest bargain on the planet because the Chiefs were savvy enough to take care of him before the QB market boom. Mahomes, for his part, sought a long-term partnership that would help the team put together an elite roster around him. The 12 quarterbacks currently ahead of Mahomes in average annual salary have combined to win zero Super Bowls and have 19 playoff wins to his 15. Said one general manager who voted Kansas City as the top front office: “They have the stability of that head coach along with a guy who is comfortable in that second chair.” So while Mahomes and Reid have become the faces of the franchise, Veach has been quietly fortifying a roster that’s helped them win three of the past five Super Bowls. 3. San Francisco 49ersTotal points: 151 (3 first-place votes, appeared on 26 ballots)CEO: Jed YorkGeneral manager: John LynchHead coach: Kyle Shanahan The 49ers, like the Chiefs, have a power coach who was instrumental in selecting the GM. Shanahan and Lynch, after enduring a 10-22 start to their tenure, have reached two Super Bowls and four NFC Championship Games over the past five years. Their 62 regular-season and playoff wins from 2019-23 were the third most in the NFL. Three former members of the Shanahan/Lynch front office have landed GM jobs elsewhere: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (Vikings), Ran Carthon (Titans) and Adam Peters (Commanders). “From the top on down, they’re on the same page, share the vision on how to build a team,” an AFC talent evaluator said. “They hit on late picks, and those guys contribute. They’ve got the best roster (with) seven All-Pros.” The Niners’ upper-echelon talent rivals any team in the league. They have extended many of their key pieces, even if negotiations have gotten contentious at times with Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams. “The issues they had,” said a general manager, referring to this summer’s Aiyuk and Williams holdouts, “were because they have so many good football players.” The 49ers invested three first-round picks in the ill-fated 2021 draft trade up for quarterback Trey Lance, but the development of Brock Purdy from Mr. Irrelevant into a potential long-term franchise QB made up for Lance’s failure to launch in San Francisco. If they pay Purdy near the top of the market, the challenge then becomes balancing out the roster with those new cap constraints. 4. Philadelphia EaglesTotal points: 140 (5 first-place votes, appeared on 23 ballots)Owner: Jeffrey LurieGeneral manager: Howie RosemanHead coach: Nick Sirianni Voters praised Roseman for his analytical and forward-thinking approach to roster-building, which has helped keep Eagles in the playoff conversation for the majority of his tenure, including a Super Bowl LII victory and another NFC title in 2022. Since Roseman’s promotion to GM in 2010 — with a few gap years when his title and role evolved during the Chip Kelly years — the Eagles have reached the playoffs eight times. They’ve had a winning record in six of their last seven seasons. “Howie is really aggressive,” an executive said. “That really stands out about the way they do things. They go for it. He’s not afraid to take risks on players. I think that’s a really good quality when you get into that role, and he’s quick to move on when something isn’t working. Those are attractive traits in a general manager. They’ve also always had guys in Philly who are good evaluators.” Among the Eagles’ best attributes: cultivating front-office talent. Chiefs general manager Brett Veach, Jets GM Joe Douglas and Browns GM Andrew Berry all worked for Roseman. Ditto for Bears assistant GM Ian Cunningham. Current Bucs general manager Jason Licht worked alongside Roseman in Philly from 2003-07. Current Eagles assistant general manager Alec Halaby has interviewed for GM jobs elsewhere. “The resources they have in Philly, the access that you get to all departments, you can learn a lot,” another executive said. Under Roseman’s watch, the Eagles pulled off the rare feat of drafting a second-round quarterback and then developing him to the point that they awarded him a top-of-the-market second contract. Of the 20 quarterbacks averaging $25 million or more annually on their current deals, only Hurts and Dak Prescott got their contracts from the team that drafted them outside the first round. Hurts has been protected by an elite offensive line, while the Eagles had enough flexibility to trade for A.J. Brown and draft DeVonta Smith in the first round, and still took care of both star receivers with second contracts. The Eagles have had more turnover at head coach than the teams ranked ahead of them, but Roseman’s consistent approach has kept their identity intact. 5. Detroit LionsTotal points: 62 (appeared on 20 ballots)Owner: Sheila Ford HampGeneral manager: Brad HolmesHead coach: Dan Campbell Holmes, who took over in 2021, helped guide the Lions to one of the best seasons in franchise history last year. As one general manager put it: “If you asked: Who is the No. 1 GM in the league right now, this minute? It might be him. I love the demeanor, love what he stands for.” Holmes and Campbell see things through the same lens, which has helped the GM acquire the types of players who will fare well for Campbell. They’ve built a roster that appears tough, selfless and talented. “Detroit has done a great job of figuring out their style and getting guys who fit that in the draft and free agency” an NFC executive said. Holmes’ first-round picks include right tackle Penei Sewell, defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, wideout Jameson Williams, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, linebacker Jack Campbell and cornerback Terrion Arnold. The Lions have built one of the best offensive lines in the league and have revitalized quarterback Jared Goff by building around him. This was hardly a small-scale rebuild for an organization that had one playoff victory in the Super Bowl era before the new regime’s arrival, and Holmes brought a turnaround in a remarkably short time. When building out the roster, Campbell has said he wants players who would have been great teammates during his playing career, and Holmes has delivered. “Detroit has done a nice job building it in their own image, which is unique to everybody else,” an executive said. 6. Green Bay PackersTotal points: 54 (appeared on 16 ballots)Team president: Mark MurphyGeneral manager: Brian GutekunstHead coach: Matt LaFleur The Packers’ stability at quarterback over the decades mirrors their stability in the front office, as Gutekunst, like his predecessor, Ted Thompson, worked under Hall of Fame Packers GM Ron Wolf in the Green Bay front office two-plus decades ago. It’s that tradition as a scouting organization that helped Green Bay land so high on this list. Led by an influx of young home-grown talent, including quarterback Jordan Love, the team reached the playoffs last season while carrying $65 million in dead money, most of it from the Aaron Rodgers trade. Reaching the playoffs and blowing out Dallas in the wild-card round signaled that the Packers were two years ahead of schedule on their rebuild. They have another $51 million in dead money this season, but could be back in the playoffs if Love, who could return from a sprained knee this week, and his young supporting cast continue to develop. Gutekunst identified Love as Rodgers’ successor with a polarizing first-round pick in 2020, part of a plan to navigate one of the most complicated quarterback transitions in recent memory. “Gutekunst’s humility and authenticity and being a smart football guy really shows up,” an executive said. “He’s very process-driven. There’s no panic there. They’ve made good decisions in free agency. They know their roster. They know their head coach. It’s more of a methodical, process-driven deal where they don’t rush to make a quick fix. They trust their process.” Gutekunst and head coach Matt LaFleur could have the Packers back in championship contention even before 2025, when the books are cleared of all that dead money. 7. Seattle SeahawksTotal points: 52.5 (1 first-place vote, appeared on 11 ballots)Chair: Jody AllenGeneral manager: John SchneiderHead coach: Mike Macdonald Schneider’s 14-year partnership with former coach Pete Carroll produced 10 playoff appearances, two conference championships and a victory over Denver in Super Bowl XLVIII. Schneider, who helped Carroll build a historic defense in the early 2010s, was instrumental in identifying Russell Wilson as a franchise quarterback. This is now a franchise in transition after the 2022 trade sending Wilson to Denver and Carroll’s departure following last season. But many of Schneider’s top lieutenants have been with the team for more than a decade and remain in place. “Everybody just loves to work there,” a GM said. “They have a great front office vibe between coaching and personnel (staff). John Schneider is one of those collaborators. They draft well. Even with Pete leaving, the transition seemed very smooth.” The Seahawks haven’t won a playoff game since 2019, but are 3-0 in Macdonald’s first season and are coming off back-to-back 9-8 seasons with a resurrected Geno Smith taking over for Wilson. The decisions to draft Wilson and later trade him reflected what voters saw as a willingness to make decisions without regard for potential backlash. The trade sending Wilson to Denver became one of the league’s most fruitful deals of the past few years. “They have a clear vision of what they want to be,” an executive said. “(Schneider) had Pete (Carroll) for 13 years, and they had great communication and shared a vision. (It’s a) very stable organization. John is a very humble guy and has great relationships throughout the league and in the media. He is plugged in and knows what is going on. “Even though they have had great continuity, he never settles and is always looking for what is next and asking, ‘What am I missing?’ Never thinks he is the smartest guy in the room and listens. Great leader and respected by everyone because he is so genuine.” 8. Los Angeles RamsTotal points: 48.5 (1 first-place vote, appeared on 13 ballots)Owner: Stan KroenkeGeneral manager: Les SneadHead coach: Sean McVay McVay’s hiring in 2017 became a line of demarcation for a front office featuring president Kevin Demoff (with the team since 2009) and Snead (hired in 2012). Those three have combined to form a front office willing to take home-run swings, most notably the 2021 trade acquisition of quarterback Matthew Stafford. The franchise found a new identity, and achieved a level of success it hadn’t experienced since the turn of the century, including a victory over Cincinnati in Super Bowl LVI. Snead famously ushered in a “F— them picks” era of roster-building, flipping first-round choices for veteran stars at a time when conventional wisdom held that, with the rookie-wage scale in place after the 2011 CBA, draft capital was king. The Rams didn’t use a first-round pick from 2017 to ’23, but ranked sixth in winning percentage (.609) and third in playoff victories over that span. The aggressive strategy seemed to catch up to the Rams in 2022, when injuries ravaged a veteran roster that also lacked depth. But McVay led them back to the postseason in 2023. “I think it’s pretty cool how they sold out to win a Super Bowl,” a head coach said, “and then they refurbished pretty quickly.” 9. Buffalo BillsTotal points: 33 (appeared on 9 ballots)Owners: Terry and Kim PegulaGeneral manager: Brandon BeaneHead coach: Sean McDermott Beane arrived from the Carolina Panthers in 2017 and, with McDermott, has morphed the Bills into a perennial contender. He traded up to draft quarterback Josh Allen in 2018, built up the roster around him and gave Allen the resources and time to develop from an unpolished QB into one of the league’s best players. “Beane is the best GM in the NFL,” one executive said, adding he “understands people and culture.” After three consecutive losses in the divisional round, Beane and the Bills traded wide receiver Stephon Diggs and moved on from aging, expensive defensive stalwarts. The early returns appear positive for the 3-0 Bills. “I think Beane is a top-five GM,” said a general manager. “He is super smart, number one. It’s never about him. If you look at the drafting and free agents they have signed, how patient they have been with the head coach, got the quarterback right — that was a 50/50 deal. I’m a big fan of him. I’m a big fan of his coach. He’s got all the right stuff, in a tough market, by the way. This is not a place free agents are clamoring to go to.” 10. Pittsburgh SteelersTotal points: 19 (1 first-place vote, appeared on 4 ballots)Owner: Art Rooney IIGeneral manager: Omar KhanHead coach: Mike Tomlin The Steelers’ 2022 transition from longtime GM Kevin Colbert to Khan, who has been with the franchise since 2001, marks the most significant recent change for one of the NFL’s most stable organizations. Mike Tomlin is the longest-tenured coach in the league and one of only three Steelers head coaches since 1969. He’s never had a losing season. “They are old-school,” an executive said. “They have been in the same defensive system forever, and they are really good at finding players who fit it.” If there’s a critique, the Steelers have been searching for a long-term quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger began to decline. But with a top-10 scoring defense four times in five years since Roethlsiberger retired, they’ve managed to stay in the AFC North race annually despite uncertainty under center. Others receiving votesOnly two other teams — the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns — received multiple top-five votes from our panelists. The Dallas Cowboys appeared on one ballot, receiving a first-place vote. Six other teams received a single vote. |
