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THE FIRST ROUND QUARTERBACK BOOM
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com explores why quarterbacks are being drafted so early (even though quite a few of them are unworthy):
In some ways, this will be the weirdest NFL draft in modern league history. Last year’s at-home experience might have been the strangest in recent memory, but this year, teams will be picking players who just finished a scattered, bizarre college football campaign. One prospect, North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, had his final college season consist of one single game. Others, like Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell and LSU wideout Ja’Marr Chase, opted out of the 2020 season altogether.
Something else that is unique about the 2021 draft, though, is becoming more common: A lot of quarterbacks are coming off the board, and fast. Back in the legendary Class of 1983, six quarterbacks were drafted in Round 1. Over the ensuing 34 years, only the 1999 draft delivered as many as five passers in the first round.
Well, over the past four years, quarterbacks have been in style. In 2018, five teams drafted quarterbacks in the first round. In 2019, there were two picked in the top six. Last year, three went in the top six. Now, three drafts later, we’re expecting five more quarterbacks to hit the stage in the top half of Round 1. By his draft value model, Chase Stuart expects this to be right next to 1999 for the most pick capital spent on quarterbacks in a single draft in league history.
Is it possible that we’re just in some golden age for quarterbacks and this is a short-term aberration? Yes. At the same time, we’ve now seen a handful of years in a row where quarterbacks who weren’t expected to rise up the draft charts have made themselves into top-five picks with one year of impressive performance at the college level. That list includes Mitchell Trubisky, Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow, and will likely add Mac Jones on Thursday night.
What I think we’re seeing is that organizations are more desperate to find a long-term solution at quarterback than ever before. Teams have always wanted great quarterbacks, of course, but if they’re significantly more aggressive in solving those problems now than they have been in years past, it changes the way we need to think about the NFL. Player time frames, salary-cap construction, the hiring and firing of coaches and general managers — we need to rethink a lot of what we know to account for the league’s new quarterback math.
Let’s look into what has changed, why it matters and what it means for the future of the league, which starts forming later this week:
Why are teams drafting more quarterbacks?
1. The league is moving more and more toward the pass. If someone stopped watching the NFL in the 1980s or 1990s and tuned in last season for the first time in decades, the league would be virtually unrecognizable. While teams like the K-Gun Bills and run ‘n’ shoot Oilers were exceptions, this used to be a run-first league. In 1980, for example, 49.4% of offensive snaps resulted in a rushing attempt. Passing was still more efficient than running, but those running plays still generated 39.4% of the offensive yardage across the season.
Nowadays, teams such as the Ravens and Titans and their run-heavy attacks are the exceptions. In 2020, just 41.8% of snaps produced a rushing play, and those runs produced less than one-third of the overall offensive yardage in the NFL. (Some of those runs were also scrambles, which should arguably belong on the passing side of the ledger.) The league as a whole set passing records last season for completion percentage, interception rate, passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt.
Naturally, the move toward passing makes quarterbacks more valuable.
2. The 2011 CBA made the floor and ceiling of drafted quarterbacks more valuable. Within two years of the 2011 CBA, it was clear that the quarterback market had irreparably changed. It has taken a while for some parts of the league and the public to catch up, but the value proposition for quarterbacks at the top of the draft is totally different than it was 20 years ago.
Remember: Before the league instituted a draft pool and limited player salaries with the 2011 CBA, the first overall pick routinely became something close to the highest-paid player at his position in league history. When Matthew Stafford got a six-year, $72 million deal from the Lions in 2009 as the first overall pick, his contract guaranteed him $41.7 million, which was more than the highest-paid free agent from that offseason, Washington DT Albert Haynesworth. Two years earlier, JaMarcus Russell took home six years and $61 million after holding out from the Raiders.
These deals dwarf the rookie contracts we see now after adjusting for the growth in the salary cap. Using the 2020 pre-COVID cap figure of $198.2 million, Russell’s six-year deal translates to $110.9 million, for an average of $18.5 million per season. Stafford’s six-year pact was worth $98.2 million in modern dollars with more than $67 million in guarantees. Drafting a quarterback with a top-five pick was downright dangerous for a team’s cap.
After 2011, those quarterbacks became much cheaper propositions. Cam Newton was the first quarterback taken after the new CBA, and he signed a four-year, $22 million contract. Translate that to 2020 cash and it would be a four-year, $36.4 million deal. Joe Burrow’s deal as the first overall pick last year was in the same ballpark at four years and $36.1 million. These deals are fully guaranteed — and there’s a fifth-year option attached — but the risk with these deals is a fraction of what it looked like with quarterbacks such as Russell and Stafford. Top picks have gone from making upper-echelon quarterback money before ever playing a snap to something more like competent backup cash.
The reward is also greater. If your draft pick turns out to be a competent starter like Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray, you’re ahead of the game; those guys make a fraction of what veterans like Stafford, Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins made this past season for similar production. If you can somehow coax a season like Lamar Jackson’s 2019 or Josh Allen’s 2020 out of that rookie passer, he’s going to be one of the two or three most valuable players in all of football.
Teams can use those cost savings to invest elsewhere on their roster, with the Seahawks famously using the space afforded by Russell Wilson (and other star draftees) to sign veterans Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett and round out their Super Bowl team. Teams can also use the newly created space to roll over cap room for years to come, allowing them to spend around their starter when the right opportunity arises.
We can see that those picks at the top of the draft are more desirable than they were before, especially when quarterbacks are involved. Over the last 10 drafts before the 2011 CBA kicked in, there were only two instances of a team trading into the top five, both by the Jets (for Dewayne Robertson and Mark Sanchez). Across the 10 ensuing drafts, though, we’ve seen eight instances of teams trading up and into the top five. Assuming that the 49ers draft a quarterback at No. 3 on Thursday night, five of those moves will have been for quarterbacks.
How has that changed the league?
3. Highly drafted quarterbacks generally get more time to prove that they’re the solution. I have to admit that I found this one to be surprising. I looked at the performance of every quarterback who was drafted in the first round between 1983 and 2000 across their first three seasons. Then, to compare with a more modern group, I did the same thing for the quarterbacks drafted between 2001 and 2018. (I can’t look at seasons past 2018, naturally, because those passers haven’t yet compiled three seasons of football.)
The modern quarterbacks have typically been given more opportunities. Over their first three seasons, the 52 first-round picks at quarterback started an average of 32 and a median of 37 games. Even though the first group includes that famous class of 1983, the 39 quarterbacks in the prior group started an average of 25 games, with a median of 24.
If you think that those quarterbacks were getting into the lineup later, that wasn’t really the issue; if we expand it out to five-year windows, we see similar results. First-rounders from 1985-2000 started an average of just under 40 games (with a median of 42), while the ensuing 15 years of first-rounders started just under 49 games (with a median of 50). As much as it might seem like quarterbacks get squeezed in the modern game, they’re typically getting more time than the quarterbacks of the past.
In part, that’s because there are fewer “disaster” picks now than there were in the past. Of those 32 quarterbacks from 1985-2000, five started fewer than 10 games, or just under 16%. This group includes quarterbacks like Jim Druckenmiller and Akili Smith. Just over one-quarter of the passers — 28% — started 20 games or fewer across their first five seasons.
Look forward, and just about every first-rounder in the modern era gets a season or more to prove himself.
What does seem to be true, though, is that guys who struggle early in their careers might get written off more quickly in the modern era. I looked at quarterbacks who had at least two subpar seasons across their first three years as a pro (with at least 200 pass attempts and an adjusted net yards per attempt index of 90 or less). Most of the quarterbacks who fit that list from the 1983-2000 group got more chances and time to emerge as a solid quarterback; it includes Troy Aikman, Drew Bledsoe, Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer, Jeff George and Vinny Testaverde.
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Two bad seasons in three have generally been enough to doom a quarterback’s chances since the turn of the century, and that’s probably not going to change. The league has also indirectly created a three-year window for evaluating young passers …
4. Teams typically have to make their big decision on their young quarterbacks after Year 3.
Whether indirectly or by design, the NFL has put teams in a position in which they are making critical decisions about their young quarterbacks after their third pro season. As part of the 2011 CBA, the league prevented teams from negotiating extensions with newly drafted players until after they completed their third pro season. Players drafted after the first round are on four-year contracts, so if they impress, teams typically sign them to extension after Year 3. Russell Wilson is the most prominent example for recent quarterbacks.
When it comes to first-rounders, though, teams have continued to be aggressive about signing the signal-callers they like to extensions after Year 3. Eight quarterbacks who have been drafted since the 2011 CBA have signed extensions with their original teams; five of them, including the four most recent passers, have inked those deals after their third pro season. Teams don’t need to necessarily get those deals done after Year 3, but to leave the maximum runway of cap space available, an extension after then has become more common.
For those quarterbacks who haven’t been impressive through Year 3, another decision looms. Teams have to decide on fifth-year options after first-rounders have completed their third NFL season. Under the 2011 CBA, those option years were only guaranteed for injury, so a team could pick up that fifth-year option and then cut a player after Year 4 with no repercussions, as long as he was able to pass a physical.
When the league signed its new CBA in the spring of 2020, the rules for fifth-year options changed. They’re now fully guaranteed at the time of signing, meaning that a team facing down a struggling quarterback now has to decide whether it wants to pay him for both his fourth and fifth seasons. That fifth season comes with a significant raise; Lamar Jackson’s fifth-year option, for example, will cost the Ravens $23.1 million. That’s more than twice as much as he is set to make across the first four years of his deal ($9.5 million) combined.
Even before the league made fifth-year options fully guaranteed, declining a fifth-year option was basically a breakup letter from team to player. None of the quarterbacks who have had their fifth-year options declined stuck around with their drafting teams after Year 4. The only two quarterbacks who have even played out their fifth-year option are Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, both of whom left after the season.
Now that the league is making those fifth-year options fully guaranteed, Year 3 is going to become an even harder stop for teams. We saw it with the Darnold situation in New York. Under the 2011 CBA, the Jets could have picked up his fifth-year option for 2022, brought him back as part of a quarterback competition or as their 2021 starter, and moved on after the season if he struggled one more time. With the Jets understandably afraid to commit to Darnold for two additional seasons, it both encouraged them to move on from Darnold and likely limited their leverage in trading the former USC quarterback.
The fifth-year option situations around the class of 2018 are pretty clear outside of Darnold, who might have to wait to see whether the Panthers draft a quarterback at No. 8. (I suspect Carolina is posturing and hoping for someone to trade up into their spot.) The 2019 class has its own question marks. Murray seems like a sure thing to get a fifth-year option and an extension. Dwayne Haskins has already been cut by Washington.
The other first-rounder is somewhere in the middle. Daniel Jones has shown virtually no development so far as a pro; he has feasted in a few friendly matchups and otherwise spent most of this first two seasons taking hits in the pocket. He already comfortably qualifies for the list of players with two subpar seasons we mentioned in the prior point; it would take a big leap forward or a desperate act from Giants general manager Dave Gettleman for Jones to get back on track and earn a fifth-year option pickup.
5. These quarterbacks are generally a little better than the guys from the past when they enter the league. Despite the arguments that college quarterbacks aren’t as sophisticated as they were in the past, there’s not much evidence of this in reality. Whether it’s the move toward more modern, college-esque schemes at the pro level, changes in league rules, or the fact that quarterbacks are simply better now than they were as prospects 30 or 40 years ago, the increase in first-round picks under center hasn’t produced any appreciable decline in quality.
From the previous point, we know that teams are more likely to give their first-rounders a meaningful shot under center in the modern era. When they do, those passers are generally more productive on a pass-by-pass basis. Over their first three seasons between 1983 and 2002, the average 200-plus attempt season from quarterbacks chosen in the first-round between 1983 and 2000 produced a net yards per attempt index of 95. The median figure was 92. We’re using an index stat here to account for the quality of quarterback play around the league; this measures net yards per attempt, a superior version of passer rating, versus others in the league at the same time.
Even given that quarterbacks chosen after 2000 have played more often, they’ve generally been better across their first three years. Their average 200-plus attempt season has produced both an average and median net yards per attempt index of 96. There’s not a significant difference, but when you consider that more quarterbacks have been chosen since 2000 and those passers have played more frequently, the fact that there hasn’t been any sort of drop-off is interesting. It hints that NFL teams aren’t wrong for pushing more QBs into the first round than they have in decades past.
6. Teams are reconsidering the value of the midtier quarterback. It has taken a decade and some bad contract decisions along the way, but this was the offseason in which teams that were paying for expensive, competent quarterback play made big moves to get out of their situations. The Rams ate more than $30 million in dead money and packaged two first-round picks to get away from Jared Goff and swap the former first overall pick for Stafford. The 49ers traded three first-rounders to move up and (almost certainly) find the successor for Jimmy Garoppolo. The Panthers took a shot on Darnold to replace Teddy Bridgewater. The Eagles, in part because of the schism between quarterback and organization, moved on from Carson Wentz to start over with Jalen Hurts.
Other teams, locked into situations by bad or unwieldy contracts, are generally stuck with what they have. Would the Vikings have moved on from Cousins if they could? The Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger? The Falcons with Ryan? The Raiders could have cut or traded Derek Carr, but otherwise, the teams who kept midtier starters generally didn’t have a choice in the matter.
For this middle class of quarterbacks, the ascension of rookies might be fatal. Take Garoppolo, who is due $25 million unguaranteed this year. He has one full, healthy season under his belt after seven pro campaigns. In that year, he posted a 107 NY/A+ and made it to the Super Bowl, but that was also with a great running game, a brilliant coordinator and an excellent defense. Does he have MVP-caliber upside? Can he stay healthy? If he can’t do either of those things, can the 49ers plug in another player out of the college ranks and get average numbers for a third of the cost while using the $17 million or so they save elsewhere on the roster?
In 2018, a reader pitched me on the idea of teams trading young quarterbacks at the end of their rookie deals to perennially have a strong roster surrounding a young quarterback. Done properly, a team could even use the quarterback they developed to acquire the draft capital needed to get the next guy. Three years ago, talking about guys like Goff and Wentz, it might have seemed outlandish. Now, it seems inevitable.
What does it mean for the future?
7. Teams can’t really afford to give their quarterbacks a redshirt season. Given that three-year window of opportunity, organizations need every evaluation rep they can get to figure out whether their quarterback is the man of their dreams. Taking their rookie season off the table to get adjusted to the speed of the pro game or to make mechanical changes is almost a non-starter. It pushes the development cycle back; the missteps you would expect a quarterback to make as a rookie instead pop up during his second pro campaign, meaning that a team would then really have only one year to see whether their first-rounder is worth a significant extension (or a fifth-year option).
For whatever teams say about what they want to do with quarterbacks coming out of school, the reality is that they’re almost always going to get inserted into the lineup quickly. The Jaguars wanted to use Bortles’ rookie season as a redshirt year and had him in the lineup by Week 3. The Eagles kept Bradford around, signed Chase Daniel and then drafted Wentz; when the opportunity arose at the end of the preseason, despite Wentz sitting out most of the summer with broken ribs, they flipped Bradford for a first-round pick and pushed Wentz ahead of Daniel on the depth chart. The Texans sat Deshaun Watson to start the year behind Tom Savage, while the Bills did the same with Allen behind Nathan Peterman. Both passers were in the lineup before the end of Week 1.
The notable exception here: Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs star sat out nearly all of his rookie season, making a lone appearance in Week 17 before blowing away the league in Year 2. That was a scenario in which everything was in line; the Chiefs were a competitive team with a very solid quarterback (Alex Smith) who stayed healthy all season. Mahomes was a player with incredible upside who, by just about everybody’s opinion, needed some work as he entered the pros. Maybe there’s a scenario where that plays out again in the future — if the 49ers actually do draft Lance behind Garoppolo and the veteran stays healthy, as an example — but it seems like a rare exception to an otherwise solid rule.
Keeping this in mind means that teams can’t plan on getting their quarterback and then surrounding him with talent in the subsequent years. They don’t want to run the risk of a David Carr situation, where a talented prospect was lit up by years of terrible offensive line play in Houston and developed awful tendencies. (You might call this a Darnold situation in years to come if things don’t correct themselves in Carolina.)
If a team is planning on taking a quarterback in the first round, it has to plan for that passer to play as a rookie. And when that happens, it’s their job to have the right pieces around that quarterback from the moment he steps on the field, not a year or two after the fact. Some teams can get away with this, as we saw with Allen from his first season in Buffalo, but it’s a dangerous game to play.
8. Coaches and general managers are incentivized to reset the process. Some coaches and executives will make the best of things with the quarterback they inherit from a prior regime, but when it comes to a young passer, most NFL personnel people want to find their guy. Drafting a quarterback you scouted and committed to might make you sleep better at night as you try to keep the job of your dreams.
It also serves to help those executives keep their job for longer periods of time. Coaches are getting less time on the job than they have in the past, which discourages them from sticking with a subpar signal-caller for that extra season.
Furthermore, when you draft a new quarterback, most coaches and personnel people are essentially using that new passer to reset the scene for their franchise. If they land on the right guy, that promising new prospect might earn an embattled executive an extension. If they fail, well, the coach and the general manager are probably getting fired, anyway. Better to start the process over and earn yourself another year or two.
9. We still don’t know whether these quarterbacks will be any good. For all the advancements we’ve made, the idea that we can sort between these five quarterbacks with any sort of effectiveness or pre-draft insight is probably naive. When I wrote about the class of 2018, I wrote about how bad we are at evaluating passers before the draft and how the stories we’ve told or been told about these players heading into April often don’t hold up under much scrutiny.
The 2018 class hasn’t made things any clearer. After the draft, the league ranked them pretty clearly in order: Mayfield went first, two picks before Darnold. Allen was off the board next at No. 7, three picks before the Cardinals traded up to grab Josh Rosen. The Ravens finished the class off by trading up to draft Jackson at No. 32.
After their first year in the league, how would you have ranked those same passers if you were re-drafting them? I’d have said Mayfield-Jackson-Darnold-Allen-Rosen. The following year, Mayfield struggled mightily, Jackson won MVP and Allen took a step forward. Maybe you would say Jackson-Mayfield-Allen-Darnold-Rosen. Now, after a huge third season, is Allen No. 1? You could credibly rank them Allen-Jackson-Mayfield-Darnold-Rosen without too much controversy. I’m not sure the argument is settled, but it’s clear that the order bears little resemblance to how the league perceived them on the whole before the draft.
When it comes to the 2021 class, maybe you would argue that Trevor Lawrence is such an overwhelming can’t-miss prospect that he should be treated separately from the rest of the class. That’s fine. If you think we can pick between Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Lance and Justin Fields right now, though, you’re kidding yourself. So much of their futures will depend on where they land on Thursday and who they’re surrounded by in the years to come.
We can see that from the class of 2018. Allen, who couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn at times at Wyoming (even after you adjusted for his average depth of target), was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league for stretches last season. Rosen was supposed to be the most pro-ready quarterback and looked overmatched from his first start. Darnold has barely budged from the guy he was in college, mostly for worse. Mayfield has been three totally different quarterbacks in three different seasons. We’re still not done figuring out the class of 2018, let alone the class of 2021.
10. This habit isn’t going away. With regards to many of the arguments presented above, the league is only bending even further toward a universe where it makes sense to move up for quarterbacks. It is not about to suddenly encourage teams to run the football 40 times a game again. The arbitrary distinction between college offenses and pro-style attacks is long gone. Fans and owners aren’t getting more patient with coaches and general managers. The league as a whole is relying more and more on players on rookie contracts while cutting out the veteran middle class.
More than anything, though, rookie quarterbacks represent the most valuable of entities in 2021: hope. This is still a league where having a true superstar quarterback is almost always a prerequisite to winning the Super Bowl. If you don’t have one of those guys, you’re trying to get lucky or you’re wasting your time. The easiest way to create meaningful, earnest hope within your organization — from ownership down to the most casual fan — is to draft a quarterback in the first round.
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PETER KING’s MOCK DRAFT
Even though he talks to a lot of insiders, Peter King claims he is throwing darts with his one and only Mock Draft of 2021:
Dart-throwing, mostly, in a mysterious first round:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars—Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Wonderful day in Duuuuuuu-val, but history throws a caution flag. Since 2010, here are the eight quarterbacks who went first overall: Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow. A nice collection, and the jury is still out on a few, of course. But five are gone from their original teams. Those eight players, collectively, are a cautionary tale on drinking till dawn Thursday night in Jacksonville.
Trevor Lawrence, like his coach, will have to be mindful of three things as his career dawns. One: patience; he will likely lose more games in his first month or so than he lost in his three-year college career—two. Two: focus on the long-term goal, which is steady development, knowing there will be some awful days. Three: Don’t be a hero. Lawrence had great talent around him and lesser teams on his schedule, and neither of those will be true in Jacksonville, at least early. Get rid of the ball. Nothing wrong with punting. Lawrence strikes me as a guy who gets all this, but he’ll be tested when he’s down 33-10 late in the third quarter at Indianapolis.
2. New York Jets—Zach Wilson, QB, Brigham Young
This occurred to me when thinking about the adjustment of a suburban Utah kid who went to college at BYU and now will be moving into the shadows of the big city. Wilson is Mormon. When a Mormon kid wins the starting quarterback job at Brigham Young, it’s a big deal, and the mantel of BYU QB lays heavy on a Mormon kid, especially one who was only moderately recruited. I am not saying playing quarterback in Provo, Utah is the same as playing quarterback for the New York Jets, because of course it isn’t. But Wilson has had a little bit of pressure on him already—and also had the pressure of a player who a year ago was in a three-way battle for the starting job at BYU and proceeded to knock it out of the park. I doubt he’s ready, as a pristine 21-year-old, for the challenge of being the next Namath. But who would be? Who would be ready for the screaming BROADWAY ZACH back-page headlines that await him?
More important than the cultural challenge will be what GM Joe Douglas does with his four additional picks in the top 90 this year, and his four picks in the top two round next year. The supporting cast will be at least as important to Wilson’s success as Wilson himself will be.
3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami via Houston)—Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Hearing it’s a two-horse race with Trey Lance. Quite a few of the experts will faint if this pick happens, and then outrage will ensue, and how-could-they-pass-on-Fields-and-Lance hot takes will flood the earth. GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan—with contracts that run through 2024 and 2025, respectively—do not care. They have not cared about public sentiment since taking these jobs, and this is their fifth draft. In their first, 2017, I was in the room as it happened, and these were the top three players on the board: 1 Myles Garrett, 2 Solomon Thomas, 3 Reuben Foster. With the third pick, they were sure to get one of those. But Foster? Really? No one had him that high. Lynch: “Had Solomon been gone, we’d have taken Foster. And been happy.” My point: Shanahan and Lynch won’t care what order the draftniks have the quarterbacks, or any position.
Shanahan believes Jones is the accurate coach-on-the-field type he craves. As one coach in QB-prospecting mode told me this spring: “Jones has elite NFL traits. He’s a natural thrower, is technically very sound, very accurate and throws a catchable ball. His base and mechanics are excellent.” He’s not the athlete a Lance or Fields is, but he doesn’t have feet of stone. I’ll be fascinated—we all will—if Jones is the pick. And I can see it happening.
4. Atlanta Falcons—Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Golden spot of the draft. I like how thorough new GM Terry Fontenot has been about the pick and about his entire roster through this process. One of his new peers in the league told me building the roster has nothing to do with sentimentality for Fontenot and all to do with the current reality of the tight cap. Next year’s NFL cap also will likely be less than the 2019 cap figure of $198 million, and three Falcons (Matt Ryan, Grady Jarrett and Jake Matthews) are slated to count for half of it, insanely—about $96 million. Some great options here, obviously. The fourth quarterback available—who knows?—might be the second or third QB on Atlanta’s board, and I could see Fontenot and Arthur Smith ensuring the Falcons’ future there. I could see them taking a generational tight end, or their choice of three top wideout prospect.
What I think Atlanta would love, even at the expense of losing out on all of those possibilities, is a trade-down. It’s certainly possible, but I’m leaning against the reality of it. Denver going from nine to four makes the most sense—but Broncos GM George Paton comes from the draft-and-develop-and-acquire-picks school. The cost for New England, Washington or Chicago seems monstrous. Any of those could happen, but I think it’s more likely Fontenot sits and picks a great player.
5. Cincinnati Bengals — Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
For a long time, I’ve thought—even railed about it in this space—that the Bengals should just sit here and pick the best tackle in the draft, Penei Sewell. And if they do, good for them. But this exercise is trying to project what I think they will do, not should do. And I’m getting to the point where I am relying on history and this particularly board in projecting something like for the Bengals:
Round 1, pick 5: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Round 2, pick 38: Liam Eichenberg, T, Notre Dame
Round 3, pick 69: Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State
The point: In the scouting community, the quality of wideout, after the top three, has a steep dropoff. The dropoff at tackle is less, and you can find respectable starters, at tackle and guard, from 30 to 75.
One more point, and it involves Bengals history. You might say, They’re fine at wideout with Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. They are, but the Bengals have always prioritized receivers, and this is still Mike Brown’s team. 1981: David Verser and Cris Collinsworth, rounds one and two . . . 1985-’86: Eddie Brown and Tim McGee in back-to-back first rounds . . . 2000-’01: Peter Warrick and Chad Johnson in back-to-to drafts . . . 2016-’17: Tyler Boyd (second round), John Ross (first round). So they used a high two on Higgins last year. It’s not going to prevent them from putting another great receiver prospect in stripes again.
6. Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia)—Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Amazing, really, to see the incredible receiver depth at Alabama in the last three years. Waddle started nine games in three years at ‘Bama—and I’m projecting him sixth overall in the draft. Over a two-year period, history will show four Alabama receivers picked in the top 15: Henry Ruggs (12), Jerry Jeudy (15), Waddle and DeVonta Smith. Nick Saban compares Waddle’s competitiveness to Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan, and that is music to the ears of feisty Brian Flores. This pick is about not only adding a top receiver to a group with Will Fuller IV, Preston Williams and DeVante Parker, but giving Tua Tagovailoa a truly fair chance to show he’s the franchise’s long-term quarterback in 2021. It’s a common-sense pick, unless GM Chris Grier believes Penei Sewell is a generational tackle and he’s sitting there at six.
7. Detroit Lions—Penei Sewell, T, Oregon
First line out of rookie GM Brad Holmes’ mouth if it falls this way: No way we thought Sewell would be there at seven. Tyler Decker is solid on the left side for Detroit but Tyrell Crosby, PFF’s 66th-rated tackle last year, seems like a place-holder on the right side. No question in my mind Holmes hopes the Patriots (15) will want to pay a ransom to move from 15 to 7 and pick their QB of the future, and the way New England’s uncharacteristic offseason has gone, you can’t eliminate that as a possibility. But if the Lions stay, one of the top tackles or DeVonta Smith seems the most logical way to go . . . unless the Chris Spielman influence reverberates through the building and the best linebacker in the draft, Micah Parsons, has the Lions smitten.
8. Carolina Panthers—Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Tiniest of all tiny clues: Interesting that the Panthers have yet to say (though many in the media have, including me) that Sam Darnold will have his fifth-year option—his 2022 contract—exercised and guaranteed by Carolina. They won’t do it, either, till at least after the draft. Count the Panthers as another team that would love to take a passel of picks from New England or Washington to move down. As I wrote last week, Carolina hates the fact that the franchise has averaged 6.2 picks per draft in the last eight years when the average team has 8.1. I’m not sure at all they’d use the pick here on Fields, because they’re truly optimistic about Sam Darnold. But owner David Tepper has made no secret that finding a franchise quarterback has to be job one, two, three and four for the team. Fields falling to them makes sense—even if it would crush the new incumbent QB.
9. Denver Broncos—Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Very nearly had a trade here—Denver dealing its first and second-round picks (9 and 40) to Detroit for the seventh pick, to take Lance. Denver GM George Paton still may do it, but I’m dubious the Lions will get anyone between 10 and 15 leapfrogging the two QB spots—Carolina and Denver—to take one of the quarterbacks. We’ll see. Paton is a lover of picks, so I’m not sure he’d surrender a starting player with the 40th pick to ensure getting Lance. In an ideal world, Lance goes somewhere like Atlanta to learn behind a good vet for a year or two, but in this case he’d probably challenge Drew Lock for the starting job by Halloween.
So many people are in love with Lance the prospect and it’s easy to see why. Excellent arm, good mobility, precocious player and leader. The one thing to keep in mind with Denver: Paton’s not going to go nuts for a quarterback; he’s okay with giving Lock first dibs here. However, Paton also understands he may not be in a power position to get the next quarterback like the one he would have if this scenario plays out.
10. Dallas Cowboys—Patrick Surtain II, cornerback, Alabama
I am not signing on to the Jerry’s-moving-up-for-Kyle-Pitts storyline. I saw Jerry Jones passionately push to try to trade for Paxton Lynch five years ago and, though he has the juice to do what he wants, not overrule his football people when they said the Cowboys should not up the offer to be able to trade for Lynch. Good thing, obviously. So I doubt Jones this year will trade next year’s one, or a passel of picks, to move up to number four to be able to take the talented Florida tight end.
Picking Surtain is smarter. Dallas gave up 29.6 points per game last year, and allowed a ghastly 34 touchdown passes. (Previous five years, on average: 23 per season.) The Cowboys, as my friend Rick Gosselin has preached for years, have to spend more time tending to the defense in the high rounds, and Surtain would be a good add to a beleaguered defense.
11. New York Giants—Micah Parsons, OLB, Penn State
Last Giants’ first-round linebacker: Carl Banks, 1983. Okay, so once every 38 years a linebacker comes out who’s worth it. The Giants always do a good job disguising their intentions, and this year they’ve been particularly good. Three things I’ve heard: Joe Judge loves DeVonta Smith; the organization likes cornerback Jaycee Horn a lot; and Dave Gettleman loves Parsons. If you can get past some of the immature pockmarks on his résumé, there is so much to love. Easily the best linebacker in the draft, with the ability to be a top edge player and double as a sideline-to-sideline presence. Now, he’s only a one-year starter, didn’t play football last year, and the Giants will have to be comfortable with the fact he’s had maturity issues. Smith or Horn could easily be the pick here—Parsons is my best guess—but 4.36-in-the-40 linebackers are quite rare.
12. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami, via San Francisco)—Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
I think when the Eagles moved from 6 to 12 on March 29 in the trade with Miami, they hoped for three things: their choice of a top receiver, Northwestern tackle Rashawn Slater, and one of the top two corners in the draft. By this mock, they’re all there. Nothing would surprise me—include a shallow trade-down, say, to New England at 15 if the Patriots are smitten with DeVonta Smith. Horn is my pick here because corner’s a significant need; the Eagles’ best (and priciest) corner, Darius Slay, gave up 77-percent completions last year, per Pro Football Focus, and there’s no other long-term solutions, at least not one who has played to that level, on the roster now. Horn’s a three-year starter in a throwing league, and the book on him is he’s uber-competitive and feisty. Sounds like a Philly guy already.
13. Los Angeles Chargers—Rashawn Slater, T, Northwestern
Surprised if Slater falls to 13. He’s what you want in a modern tackle, after 26 starts at right tackle and 11 at left tackle in the Big Ten, including a shutout of Chase Young in their 2019 Northwestern-Ohio State matchup. Didn’t play in 2020, but he’s athletic and could very well go much higher. The Chargers, with 32-year-old Bryan Bulaga at one tackle and likely place-holder Trey Pipkins at the other, need a long-term solution at the position. Even though Tom Telesco’s highest-picked tackle in the last seven drafts has been Pipkins, at 91 in 2019, I think the talent here trumps recent history. Part of me, though, wonders if the Chargers will be smitten enough with DeVonta Smith or one of the receivers if they’re still around at 13.
14. Minnesota Vikings—Alijah Vera-Tucker, G-T, USC
I believe I lead the Vikings’ chunk of my mock annually with this sentence: GM Rick Spielman really wants to trade down. Nothing new this year. Maybe he’ll find an aggressive taker if one of the receivers is still on the board. I had Jaelan Phillips here until making the switch Sunday mid-day. Lots of times, in mock-scienceville, you’re influenced by the last voice you hear. So I had Phillips until the last three people I texted with Sunday told me the need is too great on the Minnesota offensive line, and Vera-Tucker the person and prospect just too solid, and Phillips the person and prospect a little risky, and so I hit the delete button. Vera-Tucker, with 13 starts at guard and six at tackle, and was voted the top offensive lineman in the conference by his foes last year. Seems a very safe pick.
15. New England Patriots—DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
So many options for New England on draft weekend, and you know most of them. You know the option I just don’t see? Bill Belichick trading a gold mine to move up eight or 11 spots to get the quarterback of the future. I think he’s much more likely to deal for Jimmy Garoppolo (but not with a first-round pick), or to draft a Kyle Trask in the second or third round, or play it out with Cam Newton this year and then see what happens next offseason. Maybe Garoppolo’s on the street by then, or maybe Matt Ryan is.
The draft capital needed to move up to seven (never mind four) would likely include next year’s first-round pick and something else, and I can’t see Belichick loving Lance or Fields enough to do that. What good fortune for New England if it plays out this way, getting a competitive game-breaker at 15.
Quote of the Mock Process: One GM who loves Smith told me, “Have you heard his nickname? I love it. It’s so true. ‘The Slim Reaper.’ “
16. Arizona Cardinals—Greg Newsome II, cornerback, Northwestern
Lots of different opinions about Newsome. One GM with a cornerback need is wary because of his nagging injury history at Northwestern; he missed eight, three and four games due to injury in his three starting seasons. So a team will have to be comfortable with his long-term fitness, obviously, and this is a particularly concern this year because so many shortcuts have been taken medically with no combine and few chances for team medics to put their hands on prospects. Per Dane Brugler, Newsome had 25 passes defensed in 21 college games, and he runs a 4.38 40, and he’s exceedingly fluid.
Also, a note about Arizona options. Peter Schrager, whose mock I sincerely respect, had the Cards trading up from 16 to 7 to take Jaylen Waddle. Kliff Kingsbury, it seems, is smitten with getting more firepower for Kyler Murray. Okay. In the last three years, Arizona’s used two second-round picks on receivers, made a mega-trade-and-signing for DeAndre Hopkins, and bought A.J. Green in free agency. Time to address other needs.
17. Las Vegas Raiders—Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Farley, despite not playing a football game for 508 days and despite coming off disk surgery that will affect him through July, has been a very popular man this offseason with many teams. That happens because Farley’s 6-2, has been strong in man coverage, loves football, and apparently will be okay for the long term once his current back malady heals. Arizona (16), Washington (19), Chicago (20) and Pittsburgh (24) have spent lots of Zoom time with Farley this spring.
The Raiders, 26th in passing yards allowed and 30th in third-down conversions allowed, haven’t drafted well recently at corner. (Join the club.) Their projected 2021 starters at corner, Trayvon Mullen and Damon Arnette, were 82nd and 116th, respectively, in PFF’s 2020 cornerback ratings. Not good, considering 121 cornerbacks were rated. Farley, in a division with a quarter of the games annually coming against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, would be a welcome/essential add.
18. Miami Dolphins—Jaelan Phillips, edge-rusher, Miami
A complicated case here. Phillips once quit football after a spate of injuries at UCLA, and transferred to Miami where he had a great 2020 season (23.5 sacks/tackles for loss). He loves music; some scouts think it’s his passion more than football. But his quickness and power around the edge have seduced some evaluators. “He’s the best defensive player in this draft,” one GM told me. With Emmanuel Ogbah (coming off a nine-sack season at 27), Phillips could be the kind of difference-maker Brian Flores needs on his defensive front. But there’s no guarantee with Phillips—if there was, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18.
Two other edge notes: Ask 10 GMs their top four edge-rushers and it’s likely none has the same order. Regarding Phillips: My opinion after talking to a few people who know him is that he and Chip Kelly were so oil-and-water at UCLA that it affected his love of the game, and that’s been rekindled in spades at Miami. I don’t think this is going to be a kid who wakes up in three years and questions his affection for the game.
19. Washington Football Team—Christian Darrisaw, T, Virginia Tech
Admirable story. As the 171st-rated offensive tackle coming out of high school, Darrisaw got one major-school offer (Virginia Tech) and took it . . . and started 35 of 36 games in his three-year career with the Hokies, all at left tackle. At 6-5 and 322, Darrisaw is a feisty and battle-tested player who could play in year one on a line that got overrun for 50 sacks in 2020. The left-tackle position allowed 38 sacks/pressures for WFT last year, and with a stationary quarterback for at least one more year in Washington in Ryan Fitzpatrick, the immediate need is there to do better than, say, Cornelius Lucas at left tackle.
20. Chicago Bears—Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Getting to the throw-a-dart area of the first round. Better yet, the crowd-sourcing area of the first round. What is weird about a pass offense with Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller is this stat from 2020: They combined to catch 212 balls—but for only 11.2 yards per catch. With a 4.38 darter in Moody to change the pace, that yards-per-catch number is just not good enough. So here comes Andy Dalton, and the Bears have multiple needs, but another plug-and-play receiver would help, particularly now that Miller’s Chicago future is cloudy after three low-impact years.
Trade: Indianapolis trades 21st pick to Cleveland for the 26th pick and a third-round choice, 91st overall.
21. Cleveland Browns—Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
So everyone wants to sideline-to-sideling playmaking ability of Devin White. Owusu-Koramoah isn’t Devin White (15 pounds lighter), but he has some of White’s traits. The Golden-Domer is rangy (he played a rover position in the Irish D) and made first-team all-America last season, dropping in coverage, rushing and being a complete playmaker at the second level on defense. This is right about the area of the draft that he should be picked, and I could see others (Green Bay, New York Jets) being interested around here. I think playing behind Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and the Browns’ interior front, Owusu-Koramoah should be free to roam and be a playmaker in year one.
Trade: Tennessee trades 22nd pick to Baltimore for the 27th pick and a third-round choice, 94th overall.
22. Baltimore Ravens—Kwity Paye, edge-rusher, Michigan
Love this pick for the Ravens. There might not be a more hungry, coachable and talented player in this draft. Paye’s story is incredible. For the Paye family, America has been the true land of opportunity, and Baltimore could be the team of opportunity for an eager 22-year-old pass-rusher with great upside. Paye was born in a refugee camp on the west coast of Africa in 1998, and dispatched at 6 months old with a brother to live with his uncle in Rhode Island. Not a lot of football prospects in Rhode Island, but Paye become a big one, then excelled at Michigan, playing 38 games in four seasons mostly as a 4-3 end.
In the NFL, the 6-2, 260-pound Paye likely will be moved around to find his ideal spot, but Baltimore defensive coordinator Wink Martindale is very good at blending disparate ingredients to make a top defense. With just 11.5 sacks in 38 college games, Paye will need to develop more pass-rush moves to be an NFL success. (I do not see, by the way, the Ravens picking LSU receiver Terrace Marshall.)
23. New York Jets (from Seattle)—Gregory Rousseau, edge-rusher, Miami
So no one knows which edge rusher is going to be very good. The Jets want one. I think they might take Paye if available, and they might also trade up for one. They also could roll the dice on Azeez Ojulari, the highly rated rusher from Georgia who could slip because some teams are worried about his knee issues. Rousseau is an interesting story. Medical redshirt as a 2018 Miami frosh, huge season (35 sacks/TFLs) in 2019 as a rush end, opted out in 2020. So teams have seen him in all of seven starts and one season as a rusher. “Such a tough evaluation,” one GM told me. “But I can’t unsee what I saw in 2019. He was a man that year.”
In many ways, Rousseau is the perfect illustration of the 2020 draft prospect: Tantalizing, touch of mystery, not enough on tape to totally trust. The one reason NOT to give him to the Jets is New York cannot afford to bust on first-round picks—the Jets have too much recent history of that. If Joe Douglas makes this pick, it’ll be because he’s swinging for a home run, not a gap double.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers—Najee Harris, running back, Alabama
It’s been 13 years since the Steelers took a back in the first round (Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois, 23rd pick, 2008), and I think they’d consider the speedy Travis Etienne here also. They could go Teven Jenkins or Sam Cosmi here because of major tackle need, but alarm bells must be clanging in the head of draft czar Kevin Colbert after the miserable time Pittsburgh had in the run game last year. In seven of their last 11 games, the Steelers managed less than 55 rushing yards, and their season fell off a cliff.
The all-time leading Alabama rusher and touchdown-scorer, Harris isn’t the home-rush threat of Etienne, but he doesn’t shy from contact, runs between the tackles fluidly, and is the kind of bellcow back the Steelers have been seeking since Le’Veon Bell left. I’m not a big fan of running backs in the first round, and if the Steelers go tackle here, that’s fine. But spending big on a big need would be smart, which is why I like Harris here.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from L.A. Rams)—Jayson Oweh, edge-rusher, Penn State
Okay. This starts a vital time in franchise history, and I’m not being dramatic. Jags pick 25th, 33rd, 45th, 65th and know they’ve got to hit on picks in the sweet spot of the draft. They had the first pick of day one, and will have the first pick of days two (33rd) and three (65th) as well. So this is where four Jacksonville coaches—recent college coaches Urban Meyer, Charlie Strong, Chris Ash and Anthony Schlegel—can really pay off. They should be able to pick up the phone and call their friends in the college coaching business and get the kind of inside information that the college-heavy staff of Jimmy Johnson got in the first three or four seasons of the Dallas makeover three decades ago. Schlegel, particularly, should be a boon. The former assistant director of sports performance at Ohio State should be able to get the straight dope from strength and conditioning coaches across the country. That’s a tight circle of coaches, and my experience is they would not lie to each other.
That brings us to the second pick of the first round, with well-trusted defensive coordinator Joe Cullen weighing heavily on the decision. A tackle like Christian Barmore wouldn’t surprise me here; he’s the best of a bad DT crop. Oweh is pretty raw, with only eight college starts and needing to develop better pass-rush moves. But his upside is good.
26. Indianapolis Colts (from Cleveland)—Samuel Cosmi, T, Texas
Tackle Liam Eichenberg of Notre Dame is possible (Colts GM Chris Ballard and coach Frank Reich were at his Pro Day, for what that’s worth), because he’s a steady-Eddie guy, reliable like the retired Anthony Castonzo. But Cosmi’s upside is probably higher. Cosmi started 34 games at tackle for Texas—21 at left tackle, 13 at right—and at 6-6 and 315 pounds had an NFL frame with the ability to get a little bigger.
One other thing about this pick: I could see the Colts trade down again to pick up another third or fourth-round pick, or a pick next year, because they figure they can get a tackle around 35 anyway. One of the things I expect to see, particularly lower in the round, will be for teams to look for 2022 picks either instead of or in addition to a 2021 pick. That’s because teams trust the 2022 draft more than this year’s. There will be a full season, most likely, with a regular combine.
27. Tennessee Titans (from Baltimore)—Elijah Moore, WR, Mississippi
After losing receiving targets Corey Davis (free agency, Jets) and Jonnu Smith (free-agency, Patriots), the only star available for Ryan Tannehill is A.J. Brown, a true difference-maker. I think GM Jon Robinson might have to take two wideouts, or a wideout and a tight end, in the first three rounds of this draft. Moore was good in college, but as one draft-watcher told me, he should be a better pro. He has 4.35 speed, and there’s no way a player with that speed should be a 12.9-yards-per-catch guy, which Moore was in three seasons in Oxford. Tannehill’s become a good deep-ball thrower, and he would be better with Moore streaking off the line.
28. New Orleans Saints—Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
Every year, I like to put at least one “Who!!!” in my first round. So in my calls over the last few days, I’ve asked most of my football contacts who they’d put in the first round that no one has there. One GM practically blurted “That Georgia corner, Tyson Campbell. He’s big and fast and had lots of experience in a passing conference.” A high-school teammate of Patrick Surtain II in Florida, Campbell went on to play 33 games with 24 starts in three seasons at Georgia. At 6-1 with 4.36 speed, he’s got perfect NFL tools, but his game is raw and, per Dane Brugler of The Athletic, he was suspect in covering receivers out of their breaks and easy to get off-balance. Coaches with confidence will look at what he CAN do and figure they can teach him what he doesn’t do well. Dennis Allen, the Saints’ defensive coordinator, is one of those confident coaches. Plus, there’s a big need in New Orleans at the position. I like this semi-risky pick here for the Saints.
29. Green Bay Packers—Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
It’s the annual Green Bay game of How can we avoid taking a receiver in the first round again? Kadarius Toney would seem logical here. But if I’m GM Brian Gutekunst, I might go best player on the board here, then receiver in the second round (Rondale Moore? Dyami Brown?) because, in my draft scenario, lots of the good wideouts are gone. Davis is perhaps the fastest-rising defensive player in the crop over the last three months. After starting only 11 games at Kentucky, NFL teams studying his tape found the rangy sideline-to-sideline playmaker they’re valuing in linebackers these days. “Very instinctive for a guy who hasn’t played much,” one GM said. If the Packers zero in on linebackers, they may like Zaven Collins of Tulsa, but those I spoke to like Davis more.
30. Buffalo Bills—Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Now that the Bills have one of the most dangerous receiver corps in the league, time to inject some life into the run game. Etienne would be a great puzzle piece in an offense that craves speed in the backfield. Etienne doesn’t have the speed of some of the fleet backs or wideouts who run Jet sweeps (he’s a 4.44 guy), but the book on him is he cuts and fakes at top speed, which can make up for the fact that he has good but not transcendent speed. Plus, Etienne is very good in the screen game. He had 22 plays of 40 yards or more at Clemson, with a ridiculous 78 touchdowns in four seasons.
I’m not a huge fan of rushers in the first round, but the Bills are in top-off mode: What player can they use to make a very good roster a tick better? And Etienne, combined with the great weapons already on the offense, would be a pretty great add to an offense that averaged 31.3 points a game last year. He’d be an extra headache for defensive coordinators to solve.
31. Baltimore Ravens (from Kansas City)—Landon Dickerson, C-G, Alabama
Polarizing prospect around the NFL, and I don’t think Baltimore GM Eric DeCosta would pull the trigger on this first-round bonus pick (acquired from Kansas City for Orlando Brown on Friday) without having a pick earlier in the round. Dickerson is a clear medical risk, and there are those in the NFL who think he’s just been too beat up by his college experience to count on him for a long NFL career. He’s had two torns ACL and two major ankle injuries, and he won’t be medically cleared till August or September this year, most likely. Dickerson’s résumé (three years at Florida State, two at Alabama) is incredible: He started games at every position on the offensive line in his five seasons: 20 at center, 11 at right guard, four at left guard, one at left tackle, one at right tackle. (Has that ever happened before?) Played in the NCAA title game despite knowing he had a torn ACL and would soon have surgery.
So Dickerson is the risk of risks in this draft. But I would say this: The Ravens are notoriously tough medical-graders, with lots of failed-physicals every year with draft prospects. If this is the pick, some demanding Baltimore docs would have given Dickerson a clean bill. “Might be the best leader in the draft,” one GM said. “It’s a risk, but I’d take it.”
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers— Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
What gift do you get for the team that has everything? How about the best defensive tackle in the draft? (A low bar, granted; this tackle crop stinks.) But Vita Vea missed 13 games, including playoffs, last year and his absence was felt. Barmore would give the Bucs a good relief presence at the tackle spot, and could be a good heir to Ndamukong Suh whenever the trusty vet walks away.
The great thing for Tampa Bay here is GM Jason Licht can truly go best player available and be fine. Maybe he likes one of the backs (Javonte Williams?) or a high-value linebacker like Zaven Collins, or the best safety in the draft, Trevon Moehrig. It’s nice to win a Super Bowl, get every key player back, and look at the draft to simply make your team better, not be desperate to import a need player.
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