@NFL_Memes

NFL scriptwriters sending Tyreek Hill back to Kansas City, Matt Stafford back to Detroit, Packers to Dallas to face off against Mike McCarthy, and Texans to Cleveland to face off against the team they traded Deshaun Watson to all for just the opening round of the playoffs

The Buccaneers have played the Eagles five times in the playoffs, including an historic NFC Championship game.

Steelers at Bills is just a good old outdoor game that we can only hope has brutal weather.

UPDATE – There IS brutal weather afoot – but perhaps not in Buffalo.  Frank Schwab ofYahooSports.com:

Extreme cold forecasted for Kansas City

Dolphins-Chiefs should be a fun game between two top quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes. The weather might bother both offenses, however.

The Yahoo Weather forecast for Kansas City on Saturday is a high of 16 and a low of -2. With kickoff scheduled for 7 p.m. in Kansas City, almost two hours after sunset, the temperature will probably be closer to below zero by kickoff if the forecast holds.

There is a very low chance of precipitation, which helps, but the key will be the wind. If it’s about zero degrees with a significant wind, that will make conditions very tough for both offenses. It also might not help a Chiefs receiving corps that has struggled to catch the ball in good weather conditions.

Potential bad weather in Buffalo too

When the Bills get a home playoff game, a bad weather game is always possible.

It seems like the Steelers and Bills will be playing through some poor conditions for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday. Yahoo Weather says the high will be 25 degrees with a good chance of snow. The forecast has a 63% chance for precipitation. There is a high wind warning for mid-week in Buffalo, and Weather Channel says predicted winds are 15 to 25 mph for Sunday.

High winds affect offenses more than cold or precipitation. The combination of high winds with cold temperatures and precipitation could make for a low-scoring game. That’s one reason the total for the game in betting circles has seen a big drop. The over/under for total points opened at 43 and is all the way down to 35.5 at BetMGM, which is low for an NFL game and a huge shift in less than 24 hours.

The Cowboys are the biggest of the four home favorites, while the two 5 seeds are road favorites this weekend:

Cleveland Browns -2.5 @ Houston Texans

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills -9.5

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys -7.5

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions -3

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

CHICAGO

An amazing piece of EDGE MONTEZ SWEAT equity. NBCSportsChicago.com:

Montez Sweat finished the NFL season having done something no one has ever done before; he led two teams in sacks this season. Sweat finished with 6.0 sacks with the Bears and 6.5 sacks for the Commanders, leading both teams by the season’s end.

After Sweat’s 6.0 sacks, Justin Jones has 4.5 sacks and Yannick Ngakoue finished with 4.0 sacks. No one else had more than three sacks on the team.

Sweat’s count with the Commanders stopped at 6.5 sacks when Washington traded him away on Halloween. However, at the time of publication, that was still atop the Commanders’ chart. As the fourth quarter got underway in their Week 15 game, Jonathan Allen was still sackless, leaving him at 5.5 sacks.

The Bears have described Sweat as a force multiplier ever since he arrived at Halas Hall and it’s easy to see why. Not only has he notched a sack in every single game he’s played in a Bears uniform, he’s helped others get free to cause havoc in the backfield. That uptick in pressure has forced quarterbacks to throw balls more quickly, and the secondary has taken advantage. After intercepting just six passes in eight games before Sweat, they’ve doubled that for 12 interceptions in six games with Sweat.

Sweat agreed to a four-year, $98 million contract extension after he arrived in Chicago.

DETROIT

The injury to TE SAM LaPORTA is not as severe as feared.  Jeremy Reisman of Pride of Detroit on LaPorta and more:

Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell gave a bunch of injury updates on Monday, including a fairly optimistic outlook on tight end Sam LaPorta, and good news regarding both wide receiver Jameson Williams and tight end Brock Wright.

Let’s break it down one by one.

Sam LaPorta

Original reports are that LaPorta suffered a hyperextended knee and a bone bruise, but Campbell said there’s an outside chance the rookie tight end could even play this week against the Los Angeles Rams.

“LaPorta’s got an outside shot now,” Campbell said. “We’ll see. We’ll know a lot—in 48 hours we’re going to know a lot with him. But he’s got an outside shot.”

Later adding, “We’re talking days, not weeks here.”

Campbell also said that the Lions aren’t expecting to add outside help at the position, with Anthony Firkser, James Mitchell, and potentially Brock Wright back this week (more on that later).

“No, I think we’ll be alright,” Campbell said.

Kalif Raymond

Raymond also suffered a knee injury and did not return against the Vikings. Campbell put him in the same category as LaPorta, but perhaps a little behind the tight end.

“I think (Raymond’s) in that boat, maybe a little farther away than LaPorta,” Campbell said.

Raymond is coming off an outstanding game as a punt returner against the Vikings, something Campbell made note of to begin his press conference. Campbell noted that they are currently examining replacement options, including Donovan Peoples-Jones, an acquisition Detroit made at the trade deadline.

“(Special teams coordinator Dave) Fipp and I are still talking about that,” Campbell said. “He’s certainly a candidate.”

Jameson Williams

Based on Campbell’s comments, it certainly sounds like Williams will play this week after missing one game with an ankle injury.

“I think Jamo’s going to be good here,” Campbell said. “He should be good to go practicing on Wednesday.”

Williams was just starting to hit his stride with the Lions, earning at least 40 receiving yards in five of his last seven games. He also provides the Lions with big play potential, as evidenced by his 63-yard catch against the Cowboys.

Brock Wright

As alluded to before, it sounds like Wright could make his return after missing the last three games with an injury.

“I think Brock’s going to be good to go,” Campbell said. “He’ll be out there practicing as well.”

While Wright hasn’t be a huge offensive weapon this year (13 catches, 91 yards, 1 TD), he has been a key part in Detroit’s run and pass blocking plans as the team’s TE2. If LaPorta can’t go this week, Wright is likely to get a big load of playing time on offense.

James Houston

If there was one pessimistic outlook from Campbell, it’s that of second-year pass rusher James Houston, who is entering his third week of practice following a fractured ankle in Week 2. It sounds like Houston isn’t likely to play this week, but a return could be on the table if the Lions make the divisional round.

“Houston will be out there practicing, and we’ll see,” Campbell said. “He’ll be better than he was last week. Now, how much is that? How good is that going to be? I don’t know. I’m not as optimistic about him.”

DALLAS

Coach Mike McCarthy will take a different approach with his team vis a vis his past association with the Packers than he did for last year’s game at Lambeau.  Todd Archer of ESPN.com:

When the Dallas Cowboys return to practice Wednesday, they will hear nothing from coach Mike McCarthy about his tenure with the Green Bay Packers as they prepare to face his former team in the wild-card round of the playoffs Sunday.

Before making his return to Lambeau Field last year, McCarthy openly discussed his time in Green Bay that included a Super Bowl victory in 2010 and a street being named in his honor near the stadium.

The Cowboys ended up losing that game, 31-28 in overtime.

“Last year, I thought it was important for me to talk about Green Bay in the beginning of the week. I did with the team. I regretted it,” McCarthy said. “That doesn’t even need to come into our energy base [now]. So, you live and learn. This game’s about our commitment. It doesn’t matter who we’re playing — and it really doesn’t … It’s just no time for that. I answered the questions honestly in here last year about my experience up there. It just will not help us win. So if it doesn’t help us win a game, I’m not interested in it.”

McCarthy said he has not seen much of the Packers’ games during the season, unless it came in preparation for the Cowboys’ opponents. His familiarity with this Green Bay team started on the plane ride home Sunday from Washington after the Cowboys beat the Commanders to win the NFC East.

Why did he regret his previous approach?

“It’s a players’ game. Always has been. Always will be,” McCarthy said. “That’s not all that should be focused on. I believe there’s 24 hours in a day, got seven days to prepare, and if we’re not working on winning, then it’s really a waste of time.”

On Monday, safety Jayron Kearse was asked about McCarthy facing the franchise he coached for 13 years.

“I’m pretty sure there’s going to be a lot of emotions with Coach McCarthy and rightfully so being he’s been there, he’s won … a Super Bowl up there and had some great years there,” Kearse said. “So to play them in this wild-card game, I know it’s going to be huge for him, but I’m pretty sure he won’t let that get in the way of the things that we have to do, understanding that we’re here for one reason.

“And it’s not Mike McCarthy versus Green Bay. It’s the Dallas Cowboys versus Green Bay and that’s something players need to understand as well. We want to go out there and win this for Coach, but let’s understand that it’s a team that is in our way. Let’s not make it bigger than what it is.”

McCarthy believes going through the reunion with the Packers last year will help him now.

“It was good to go back there, frankly,” he said. “I think the biggest thing I got out of going back there was I got to see a lot of people I didn’t get to see at the end. So, I was thankful for that. We would’ve liked to have won the game. At the end of the day, this is my team. I’m a Dallas Cowboy. This is our opportunity, and I just want to make sure I’m doing my part, and that’s supporting everything in winning this game.”

PHILADELPHIA

Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia takes the pulse of the Eagles players after their tawdry finish and wonders do they still believe in Coach Nick Siriani:

Do the Eagles still believe in Nick Sirianni?

They say they do.

They’re certainly not playing like it.

“I have a lot of confidence in Coach,” Jalen Hurts said. “He puts his heart into it. He has a will to win. And that’s really all you can ask for.”

No, Jalen. You can ask for more. You better believe owner Jeffrey Lurie will.

Because the Eagles are not a well-coached football team right now. To say they are limping into the playoffs would be an understatement; they’re barely crawling into the postseason, having lost five of their last six games.

The Eagles began this year with a 10-1 record but then the wheels fell off. They’re now 11-6 on their way to face the Bucs in the wild card round next Monday night. They’re somehow road favorites and might be able to get a win; but that’s far from guaranteed.

“Yeah, obviously wasn’t good enough. Wasn’t good,” Sirianni said. “We didn’t coach well enough, we didn’t play well enough, and there’s not really an explanation, we just didn’t do the things we needed to do to be successful. And that starts with me.”

Sirianni is right. It starts with him.

Even though a win in Sunday’s game ultimately wouldn’t have mattered for seeding because the Cowboys won to take the NFC East, the Eagles didn’t know that at kickoff. They were playing to win this game and for a while the Commanders were doing their part against the Cowboys.

Heck, the reason Sirianni ended up pulling his starters was because the Eagles got down 24-0 to the lowly Giants.

After Sunday’s loss, Sirianni was asked if he thinks the Eagles’ locker room is still supporting him.

“Yeah, I know I felt in that locker room that we’ve got a lot of belief in that locker room,” Sirianni said. “We know everybody … there are a lot of teams that would want to be in our position of making the playoffs. We’re in the playoffs, and we’re moving onto Tampa Bay, and everything.

“Everybody’s got to give everything they’ve got this week. Myself, starting with the coaches putting the plan together, and then everybody in that locker room. We need all players, coaches, all staff, all hands-on deck, leaving everything they’ve got in this locker room because everybody’s 0-0 going into this week.”

So maybe Sirianni does feel support from his players. He has spent a lot of time building the culture.

But why should his players still have faith in him?

“Yeah. I mean, you can ask them that,” Sirianni shot back. “As far as, obviously, we’ve lost five of our last six, but that doesn’t discredit the rest of the season. You can ask them that question.”

And we did. In several different ways.

Sure, it seems crazy to even entertain questions about the future of a head coach who led the Eagles to a Super Bowl appearance less than a year ago. But the fact that those questions are completely legitimate right now just illustrates how bad things have really gotten. If there’s one thing Lurie hates, it’s to be embarrassed. And the Eagles have been embarrassing the last two weeks.

“I think everybody in the locker room has faith in Nick Sirianni,” longtime center Jason Kelce said. “I think to say it hasn’t been pretty the last month would be an understatement but we’ve had a lot of really, really successful football with Nick. I think he does a lot of really, really good things organizationally.”

There’s no question that Sirianni has had success in Philly. The Eagles have made the playoffs in all three of his seasons at the helm and were overachievers in 2021 and 2022. He got them into the playoffs in 2021 after a very shaky 2-5 start. And last year, Sirianni guided them all the way to Super Bowl LVII in impressive fashion before falling to the Chiefs.

But even when the Eagles began this season with a 10-1 record, there were cracks that have become increasingly visible during this horrid stretch to end the regular season.

The offense is stagnant and unimaginative. And the defense is a complete and utter disaster since the ill-fated decision to switch coordinators mid-stream.

So, again, why do the Eagles have faith in Sirianni?

“I don’t even know, what, we finished 11-6 that’s not a terrible record,” tight end Dallas Goedert said. “Obviously, we started the season off better than we ended it. But we had a long season last year. I just know everybody in this locker room is ready to go to work for the playoffs.”

CAROLINA

It’s not a bad list, and presumably fired GM Scott Fitterer didn’t hand it to David Tepper on his way out the door:

Panthers request permission to interview eight candidates for vacant head coach position.

The Panthers are set to undergo a major overhaul ahead of the 2024 season, which begins with their vacant head coaching position. Included in the requests were Lions OC Ben Johnson, Texans OC Bobby Slowik, Dolphins OC Frank Smith, Bengals OC Brian Callahan, Buccaneers OC Dave Canales, Rams DC Raheem Morris, Ravens DC Mike Macdonald, Cowboys DC Dan Quinn, and Ravens OC Todd Monken.

Mike Florio with the name of a consulting firm that seems to be in play.

David Tepper is looking for another new G.M., while looking for another new coach. He’ll be using a consulting firm to assist with both searches.

As Joe Person of TheAthletic.com reported over the weekend, Tepper has retained Sportsology to help with the effort to find a new coach. Per a league source, Sportsology will also assist in the search for a new General Manager.

Scott Fitterer was relieved of his duties on Monday. He had been in limbo since Tepper fired coach Frank Reich during the season.

The structure remains to be seen. With some teams, the coach reports to the G.M. At other teams, the coach runs the show. Still other teams have the G.M. and coach separately reporting directly to ownership.

The Commanders are counting on two basketball guys, Bob Myers and Magic Johnson, to find their football coach.

Sportsology’s background is in soccer.  Joseph Person:

@josephperson

Panthers owner David Tepper has been working with consulting firm Sportsology, headed by former Chelsea FC exec. Mike Forde, per league sources.

Forde helped Tepper w/ his recent Charlotte FC coaching search and is expected to have some role in Panthers’ coach search.

Forde has worked with several NFL teams in recent years, incl. the Rams, 49ers and Falcons.

Tepper did not use a search/consulting firm when he hired Matt Rhule or Frank Reich.

The Panthers owner said last month: “We’re going to self-reflect and make it better.”

NEW ORLEANS

Jon Gruden may get hired by the Saints.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Saints are expected to make changes to their coaching staff, and they are considering the addition of a big name to the offensive side.

Jeff Duncan of nola.com reports that the team has interest in reuniting Jon Gruden with Derek Carr. Gruden would not replace offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael but have a title such as senior offensive assistant.

Current Saints head coach Dennis Allen was added to Sean Payton’s staff in 2015 as senior defensive assistant and replaced Rob Ryan as the Saints’ defensive coordinator 10 months later.

Gruden coached Carr with the Raiders for 3 1/2 seasons before the team fired him in the middle of the 2021 season. It came after multiple leaks of emails he sent to former Commanders executive Bruce Allen while working for ESPN.

Gruden consulted with the Saints during the offseason program and visited training camp this summer.

According to Duncan, Gruden met with team officials and attended a team meeting the night before the Saints’ game against the Buccaneers in Week 17. He dined with staff, including General Manager Mickey Loomis, at a local restaurant.

Gruden, who won a Super Bowl with the Bucs, still has a home in Tampa.

Gruden has a pending lawsuit against the NFL and Commissioner Roger Goodell, arguing that the emails were used against him in an effort to harm his contractual and business interests.

Allen would not get into specifics about changes to the offensive coaching staff when asked Monday, but he said the team would “look at everything.”

“I’m not going to go into any of those details in terms of what changes will occur,” Allen said. “But there’s things that will have to be different.”

Saints insider Mike Triplett:

@MikeTriplett

Saints’ dinner with Jon Gruden in Tampa last week was characterized by sources more as having a friendly relationship than discussing a job

But obviously a lot of connections there with Loomis/Allen/Carr. So possibility can’t be ruled out if there’s mutual interest going forward

– – –

TE JIMMY GRAHAM has had a lot of teammates:

@TheJimmyGraham

Get off @Jaboowins  back. This man is the best teammate I’ve ever had. Loves this city, this game and embodies everything you can ask for in a leader. Was a rare situation and we all take responsibility. Nobody thought it would get blown out of proportion. Also f*ck the falcons

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Kudos to WR PUCA NACUA.  Ryan General of YahooSports.com:

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua set the new record for most catches and receiving yards by a rookie during a historic performance against the San Francisco 49ers on Jan. 7.

Breaking records: Nacua etched his name into the NFL record books as he concluded his inaugural NFL regular season with 105 catches and 1,486 receiving yards, reported the Associated Press. The 22-year-old Utah native, who is of Samoan, Hawaiian and Portuguese descent, surpassed the previous catching record held by Jaylen Waddle and receiving yard record held by Bill Groman.

Nacua’s consistency: Nacua, who secured a touchdown catch on the opening drive against the 49ers on Sunday, broke the rookie receiving yards record in the third quarter with a seven-yard reception, surpassing Groman’s 63-year-old mark. He would then secure the catching record with a subsequent six-yard catch soon after.

“For him to be able to break both of those records, it’s such a credit to this team and also his consistency and his body of work over a 17-game season,” coach Sean McVay was quoted as saying. “I’m really happy for him.”

Trending on NextShark: Michelle Yeoh becomes a grandmother on New Year’s Day

Moment with mom: Nacua was pulled from the game after getting four catches for 41 yards in the first 34 minutes. Soon after, he was also able to celebrate with his mother Penina, who was there to witness the record-breaking feats.

“That was super sweet,” he said. “I saw my mom at the beginning of the game and we were able to have a moment. It was cool for her to be here in this environment.”

He added, “It was kind of a moment that hit me earlier in the game and it was a full circle moment of experiencing it all and I’m glad my family was able to be here to experience it with me.”

CINCINNATI

Is this a valid position from QB JAKE BROWNING?  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

After losing quarterback Joe Burrow for the season, the Bengals remained surprisingly competitive with backup Jake Browning at the helm. And as a result of that, Browning believes he shouldn’t be a backup going forward.

Browning said after Sunday’s season finale that he thinks he should be a starter, even though he knows it won’t happen in Cincinnati, where the job is Burrow’s.

“I’ve established that I’m capable of being a starter in the NFL,” Browning said. “I’m one of the Top 32 quarterbacks in the world and just happen to be on a roster with a guy who’s proven he’s a Top 5 quarterback in the world.”

Browning is an exclusive-rights free agent, which means the Bengals could keep him with a league-minimum salary in 2024, or they could trade him to another team. Browning acknowledged that it’s not up to him where he plays next season.

“What that looks like going forward I have no idea, nor do I have any control,” Browning said.

Browning played well this year, but he’s more likely to spend another year as Burrow’s backup than to get a starting job in 2024. If he’s one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL, it’s probably going to be a while before he can prove it.

Per the NFL passer rating formula – Browning clocked in at #7

Brock Purdy         113.0

Dak Prescott        105.9

Kirk Cousins         103.8

Lamar Jackson     102.7

Tua Tagovailoa     101.1

C.J. Stroud            100.8

Jake Browning        98.4

Russell Wilson        98.0

We kind of like the good old passer rating formula – we wouldn’t really quibble with the closely bunched top 6.

But Browning and Wilson?  With MATTHEW STAFFORD (92.5) and JOSH ALLEN (92.2) at 15^th and 16^th

JACKSONVILLE

The Jaguars clean house on the defensive side of the coaching staff.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

After what Doug Pederson called a “wasted” season, the Jaguars have moved to fix things.

They have fired defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and his staff, Greg Auman of Fox reports.

Caldwell spent the past two seasons coordinating the team’s defense in his first stint in that role. He previously coached linebackers for the Eagles, Cardinals, Jets and Bucs.

The Jaguars ranked 22nd in total defense, including 26th in passing, and 17th in scoring defense.

Jacksonville began the season 8-3 before losing five of its last six games, and Sunday’s 28-20 loss to the Titans cost them the AFC South title and a playoff berth.

Head coach Doug Pederson praised offensive coordinator Press Taylor on Monday. Taylor assumed play-calling duties on a full-time basis this season.

BUFFALO

A note from Dan Orlovsky:

@danorlovsky7

Bills had the best record against the playoff field (5-1 W-L)

More from an anonymous contributor on Reddit:

AFC:

Ravens: 6-3

W: Texans, Browns, Lions, Rams, 49ers, Dolphins

L: Steelers* (2x), Browns

Bills: 5-1

W: Dolphins (2x), Chiefs, Bucs, Cowboys

L: Eagles

Chiefs: 1-4

W: Dolphins

L: Eagles, Bills, Lions, Packers

Texans: 2-2

W: Steelers, Bucs

L: Ravens, Browns

Browns: 4-3

W: Texans, Ravens, 49ers, Steelers

L: Ravens, Steelers, Rams

Dolphins: 1-5

W: Cowboys

L: Bills (2x), Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens

Steelers: 5-3

W: Ravens* (2x), Browns, Rams, Packers

L: 49ers, Texans, Browns

NFC:

49ers: 5-3

W: Steelers, Rams, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Eagles

L: Browns, Ravens, Rams*

Cowboys: 3-4

W: Rams, Eagles, Lions

L: 49ers, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins

Lions: 3-3

W: Chiefs, Packers, Bucs

L: Ravens, Packers, Cowboys

Buccaneers: 1-5

W: Packers

L: Eagles, Lions, Bills, Texans, 49ers

Eagles: 6-2

W: Bucs, Rams, Dolphins, Bills, Cowboys, Chiefs

L: 49ers, Cowboys

Rams: 2-6

W: Browns, 49ers*

L: 49ers, Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, Packers, Ravens

Packers: 3-3

W: Rams, Lions, Chiefs

L: Lions, Steelers, Bucs

A couple of things to take away from this:

The Ravens and 49ers have 100% earned their 1st round byes. They each played at least 8 games vs future playoff teams (including each other), the most among these teams, and still had the best records in the conference. That means over half of their schedule was against another playoff team

The Bucs definitely took advantage of an easy NFC South division

The Bills were a 59-yard game-tying field goal away from being 6-0 vs playoff teams(!)

The Steelers record being 5-3 is funny too

The Eagles record is super misleading based on how their season is going right now, shows how it doesn’t tell the whole story

The Cowboys 3 wins were at home, their 4 losses were on the road

The Chiefs haven’t beaten a playoff team on American soil this season, the Dolphins haven’t beaten a playoff team on the road. They’re facing each other at Arrowhead this weekend, so one of those is bound to change.

– – –

This from Aaron Schaatz:

@ASchatzNFL

We talk too much about Josh Allen’s interceptions and not enough about the fact that he led the NFL with the lowest sack rate at 4.0%.

THIS AND THAT

NFL AWARDS OPINION

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com with his Awards Ballot (some editing for space):

Keep in mind that these picks are my selections for who I believe should win the actual awards, not who will win when the actual voting is revealed before Super Bowl LVIII. I try to use objective data, what I’ve seen from watching all of these players and teams on film as much as possible throughout the season, and my thoughts from talking to people in and around the league to form my opinions about these award winners. In many cases, these races are so close that there isn’t much of a difference between those who finish No. 1 and No. 2 or even No. 1 and No. 3.

Coach of the Year

This was a race with four candidates for three spots. Thankfully, two of them were playing in the playoff eliminator on Saturday night, so I decided to award third place to the winner of that matchup.

3. DeMeco Ryans, Texans

Ryans and the two players the Texans took in the first round accelerated Houston’s rebuild dramatically. While C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. raised Houston’s ceiling on both sides of the ball, Ryans excelled by getting more out of the players he inherited than prior regimes. On defense, seven of the 11 players who played at least 500 snaps were on the roster for Lovie Smith a year ago. The guys who weren’t included journeymen such as Sheldon Rankins and Denzel Perryman.

If anything, the players on the offensive side of the ball made even bigger strides, a testament to the work done by Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. Nico Collins morphed into a superstar, finishing second in the NFL in yards per route run. Tank Dell was supposed to be a gadget player and instead played like a WR1 for most of the season before fracturing his fibula. Shaq Mason was a salary-dump acquisition and should have gone to the Pro Bowl. Devin Singletary played the best football of his career. When you think about what this team has with Stroud and how promising Ryans looks as a coach, the Texans might be the league’s most exciting young franchise at the moment.

2. Sean McVay, Rams

McVay is going to be in the Hall of Fame one day. This might stand as the best coaching job he ever pulls off. This Rams team was left for dead by most observers heading into the season. In an effort to rebuild their young core and clean up their salary cap, they moved on from well-known veterans and almost entirely sat out veteran free agency. They had 13 picks in the 2023 draft but no first-round selection and only one in the first 75. When Cooper Kupp’s hamstring acted up just before the season, it felt like an ominous sign for what was probably going to be a frustrating season.

Instead, McVay and his team have thrived. The Rams have used players with four years of experience or less at the second-highest rate in football, and many of those players have played well. Puka Nacua had one of the best rookie wideout seasons in league history. Second-year running back Kyren Williams won the starting job and was a Pro Bowler. Rookies Byron Young and Kobie Turner emerged as valuable pass-rushers next to Aaron Donald.

It wasn’t just the draftees. The Rams traded for Steelers guard Kevin Dotson and unearthed a Pro Bowl-caliber season from a guy who had never played at that level in Pittsburgh. Ahkello Witherspoon, signed for close to the minimum, allowed a 76.2 passer rating in coverage. Safety John Johnson rejoined the Rams and helped take the defense to the next level during their late-season win streak.

Like all the great coaches, McVay reinvented himself. The Rams hired new coaches and installed a new gap-heavy rushing attack to replace the zone-first scheme he had run during his first ascent to the top with Jared Goff and Todd Gurley. The move unlocked Williams and coaxed a comeback season out of Matthew Stafford, whose QBR on play-action passes jumped from 22nd in 2022 to fifth this season. McVay looked exhausted and ready for the television booth a year ago. Now, he looks primed for another decade on the sidelines.

1. Kevin Stefanski, Browns

When Stefanski won the actual Coach of the Year award in 2020, it could have been chalked up to a product of solid coaching and, COVID absences aside, good fortune. The Browns were outscored by their opposition and went 7-2 in one-score games. It wasn’t sustainable, and despite massive hype heading into 2021, they disappointed.

The 2023 team has gone 6-2 in one-score games, but it would be hard to argue the Browns have been lucky, or that Stefanski hasn’t needed to earn those victories. The former Vikings assistant lost starting right tackle Jack Conklin to a knee injury in Week 1 and star back Nick Chubb to a torn ACL in Week 2. Left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. has been sidelined for half the season, while replacement right tackle Dawand Jones hit injured reserve in December.

And then, of course, there was the small matter of losing starting quarterback Deshaun Watson after six games. You can debate Watson’s level of play, but it’s certainly clear the Browns prepared for the season as if he would be their primary starter under center. Jeff Driskel’s start in a meaningless loss to the Bengals on Sunday made him Cleveland’s fifth starting quarterback this season, the first time a team has started five passers in a single season since the strike year of 1987.

It was remarkable, then, to see the Browns marching up and down the field on the excellent Jets defense in Week 17. Without all those players above and wide receiver Amari Cooper, Joe Flacco was carving up his former team while throwing to David Njoku, Elijah Moore and Jerome Ford. That’s not supposed to happen.

Should Stefanski get credit for hiring the right assistants? The move to bring in Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator transformed the defense, as a unit that seemed sloppy and overwhelmed last season morphed into the league’s fastest, most dominant defense in 2023. Schwartz would be a viable candidate for coordinator of the year if we were handing out that award; as it stands, the Browns’ dominant defense and their success despite injuries on offense are enough for me to hand this award to Stefanski.

My pick after Week 4: Kyle Shanahan, 49ers

My pick after Week 9: Mike Tomlin, Steelers

Defensive Rookie of the Year

The 2023 defensive class has been really impressive, especially in terms of depth. Day 2 picks Brian Branch (Lions), Tyrique Stevenson (Bears), Keeanu Benton (Steelers) and Yaya Diaby (Bucs) have stood out with big plays. The best rookie linebacker in the league is Vikings standout Ivan Pace Jr., who went undrafted and signed for $20,000. He’s going to be a pro for a long time. There are a lot of fun Day 3 players who have popped up for stretches. It’s been a season in which a different rookie seems to stand out each week.

At the same time, there hasn’t been that Sauce Gardner-caliber rookie who runs away with this award, in part because of injuries. Calijah Kancey (Bucs) played 11 defensive snaps over the first month of the season. Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) has looked like a superstar when healthy, but he has basically missed 4½ games with injuries. Branch missed two games and was a part-time player in three others. Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) was holding his own against the league’s best wideouts before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4. Joey Porter Jr. (Steelers) has been one of the league’s top corners over the second half of the season and didn’t get hurt, but he was a backup until Week 7. Porter or Witherspoon might be the NFL’s best rookies on a snap-by-snap basis, but they missed too much time to make it into the end-of-season top three.

I ended up with three pass-rushers in my top three. If we were going by who will have the best career, I might have chosen three defensive backs. That makes for a difficult award to hand out, but it bodes well for the careers to come of all these guys.

3. Jalen Carter, DT, Eagles

One of the few players on the Eagles’ defense who hasn’t disappointed this season, Carter has been exactly what general manager Howie Roseman & Co. hoped they would be landing in the top 10 of the draft. The Eagles needed an interior disruptor who could take many of Javon Hargrave’s snaps and serve as the team’s primary defensive tackle after Fletcher Cox retires. Carter has mostly been up to the task, as his 15.6% pass rush win rate on the interior ranks sixth among defensive tackles. Notably, he’s three spots ahead of Hargrave.

I’d argue it has been more flashes than consistently dominant play, as Carter’s 6 sacks are underpinned by 8 tackles for loss and 9 quarterback knockdowns. If you put his best snaps on a highlight reel, he looks terrifying.

2. Kobie Turner, DT, Rams

Turner, on the other hand, has caught fire over the past two months. The third-round pick finished with eight sacks over his final nine games, including 2.5 takedowns of Tyrod Taylor in the Week 17 win over the Giants. He has shown a real aptitude for beating offensive linemen as part of twists and stunts, where he has managed to show both the power to get linemen off their spot, the agility and acceleration to stunt and beat the engaged lineman to his spot, and the final burst to take down opposing quarterbacks.

Does Turner benefit from having Aaron Donald in the mix? Of course. Every pass-rusher who plays for the Rams does. As the Bengals did in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago, you’ll see teams as a rule slide their pass protections Donald’s way. Coordinator Raheem Morris moves Donald around to create both one-on-one mismatches for his star and opportunities for the players around him to take advantage of the attention sent Donald’s way. Even accounting for that, Turner has been a difference-maker during L.A.’s 7-1 stretch.

1. Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Texans

In the end, the top-drafted defender in the class did just enough to sneak through and claim the top spot in his class. Anderson’s top-line numbers of seven sacks and 10 tackles for loss aren’t good enough to single-handedly run away with this award — and he has missed meaningful time over the past month with an ankle injury — but the closer you look, the more impressive he gets.

He finished the season third in pass rush win rate among edge rushers, just ahead of T.J. Watt and also ahead of Nick Bosa and Maxx Crosby. He racked up 22 quarterback knockdowns, which hints at more production to come, as pass-rushers typically turn about 45% of their hits into sacks.

What might be most telling about Anderson, perhaps, is what happens to the Texans’ defense when he’s not on the field. Ryans’ unit has posted a 46.3 QBR allowed and a 33.5% pressure rate with Anderson between the lines. When Anderson has gone to the sidelines or been inactive, the Texans have dropped to a 67.6 QBR mark with a pressure rate at an even 30%.

My pick after Week 4: Christian Gonzalez, Patriots

My pick after Week 9: Devon Witherspoon, Seahawks

Offensive Rookie of the Year

The OROY case is essentially the opposite of what’s going on with the defensive side of the ball. With all due respect to Darnell Wright (Bears), Jordan Addison (Vikings) and De’Von Achane (Dolphins), there are four strong candidates for this award. Those four players have been superstars and among the best players at their respective positions. I had two of them as second-team All-Pros when I put together my column last week.

The one who just misses out is Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions), who outplayed Bijan Robinson in his rookie season and has to be one of the most exciting running backs in the league.

3. Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions

I had LaPorta as my second-team All-Pro tight end, in a tier with Travis Kelce and Evan Engram, all of whom were a level behind fellow Iowa product George Kittle in the tight end mix this season. As a rookie, LaPorta was already a red zone terror; he led all tight ends in touchdowns (10), with seven of those scores coming in the red zone. The last rookie tight end to have more touchdowns in the red zone than LaPorta is Rob Gronkowski, who had nine for the Patriots in 2010.

LaPorta averaged 1.83 yards per route run, which is the sixth-highest mark of the season among tight ends and the sixth-best mark a rookie has posted with at least 200 routes run during his debut season.

2. Puka Nacua, WR, Rams

There’s a good chance Nacua just finished the best rookie season by a Day 3 wide receiver in league history. While acknowledging that this is a pass-happy era, the prior record for the most receiving yards posted by a player drafted after Round 3 during his rookie season was 1,131, a mark hit by Bill Brooks in 1986. Just four players taken after Round 3 had topped 1,000 yards during their rookie season, with Marques Colston as the most recent example.

Nacua finished with 1,486 receiving yards, a staggering total for a player who was the 20th wide receiver taken in his class. In a draft in which four wideouts were selected in Round 1 and 14 receivers were included among the first 100 picks, Nacua is the only wideout who topped 1,000 yards. We won’t see a season like this one for a very long time.

And frankly, watching Nacua play, this doesn’t look like some fluke or gimmick. He’s strong and fast — you don’t muscle through an NFL tackle and run 80 yards after the catch like he did against the Giants in Week 17 without having that combination in reserve. He commands targets at all three levels of the field and runs well with the ball in his hands. His drop rate needs to come down after putting eight balls on the turf this season, but as long as he can stay healthy, everything about his performance suggests he’s a special talent and a cornerstone player for the Rams.

1. C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans

Nacua isn’t a franchise quarterback, however, and Stroud just had the sort of season that suggests the No. 2 overall pick is about to be one for the next decade. Forget promising or hinting at stardom; Stroud already looks like one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the league on a week-by-week basis, and he has brought along Nico Collins and Tank Dell (who would have been in the Rookie of the Year conversation if not for injury) along the way.

There are teams that protect their rookie quarterbacks by having them throw mostly safe passes and ones that trade the benefits of deep shots with the risk of lots of turnovers by letting them spray the ball across the field. Stroud is the rare quarterback independent of experience who combined deep passes with a low interception rate. His average pass traveled 8.7 yards in the air this season, which was the league’s second-highest rate (behind Will Levis). And Stroud threw interceptions on only 1.0% of his pass attempts, which finished as the lowest rate in the league and the second-lowest interception rate for a rookie in NFL history, behind Dak Prescott’s debut 2016 season.

They’re round numbers, but if we take just the guys since 2006 who have 400 pass attempts while averaging more than 8 air yards per throw and an interception rate below 1.5%, we’re looking almost entirely at seasons from stars. Five Aaron Rodgers campaigns. Three Tom Brady years. Two seasons each from Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Tyrod Taylor, who both stands out as the obvious outlier and was criminally underrated at his peak. And then a handful of single seasons from Prescott, Ben Roethlisberger, Brett Favre, Joe Burrow and others. It’s rare and special to be able to pass deep regularly without throwing interceptions, and even more impressive to do it as a rookie.

If he can take a stride forward and get his on-target rate up to league average, he’s going to be an MVP candidate in 2024.

My pick after Week 4: Nacua

My pick after Week 9: Stroud

Defensive Player of the Year

This was a year for the edge rushers. With the possible exception of Justin Madubuike and DaRon Bland, all of the top candidates for the DPOY award are edge rushers. I tend to think a dominant pass-rusher is the most important position outside of quarterback, and the league pays top pass-rushers more than any other position besides signal-caller, so I don’t have much of an issue focusing on those guys here.

As was the case with the first-team All-Pros, there are too many edge rushers to go around. It seems unfair to sort through this award without making a case for Trey Hendrickson (Bengals) and his 17.5 sacks or Khalil Mack and the 17 he racked up for the Chargers. Josh Allen has broken out and kept the Jags’ defense afloat for most of the season; he was the one who got them the ball back for that final drive on Sunday. Aidan Hutchinson has been the entirety of the rush in Detroit. Maxx Crosby has been a one-man show in Las Vegas for three years and somehow keeps getting better.

Simultaneously, it feels like there’s only three players in the top tier this season who could really be considered here, given how they propel their respective defenses forward. They’re each worthy Defensive Player of the Year winners, but there can be only one.

3. Myles Garrett, EDGE Browns

When Garrett wasn’t a first-team All-Pro for me last week, Browns fans were furious. Many pointed out Garrett will be the likely Defensive Player of the Year winner when the voters make their pick, and I suspect they’re right, as the market on ESPN BET has Garrett as a comfortable favorite at minus-275.

At the midway point of the season, he was also my pick, owing to both his presence on the league’s best defense and his incredible production. At that time, he had 9.5 sacks and 27 pressures on 188 pass-rush opportunities, for a sack once every 19.8 rushes and a pressure once every seven rushes.

Garrett added 3.5 sacks over the ensuing two games, but likely owing to an injured shoulder suffered in Week 12 against the Broncos, his production has cratered since.

On the whole, Garrett has a strong case, but the other two players ahead of him have stronger ones.

Sacks aren’t everything for great pass-rushers, but when there’s such stiff competition, it’s very tough for a player to go nearly two months with just one sack to his name and still finish first, even if it’s unfortunately caused by an injury. Garrett will probably win the award because he’s the best player on the league’s best defense — and it will be great for a future Hall of Famer to get some hardware on his mantel — but other players have a stronger case this season.

2. Micah Parsons, EDGE, Cowboys

I’m not sure there’s a more devastating player in the game, regardless of position, than Parsons. As I mentioned in the Garrett section, Parsons led the NFL in hurries despite rushing the passer just 429 times; Watt (483) and Garrett (442) both rushed the quarterback more often, and there was a significant gap between Parsons’ opportunities and the ones afforded to players such as Crosby (585) or Hutchinson (548). He also did that while being double-teamed more often than any other edge rusher. And while this is a rare occurrence, I can’t recall seeing any defender triple-teamed in pass protection more often than Parsons was this season.

The speed with which Parsons operates is astounding. His average pressure came after just 2.18 seconds, which allows him to blow up just about any passing concept an opposing team is going to run. No player over the past five seasons has at least 20 pressures and an average time to pressure under 2.2 seconds. Not Watt, not Parsons and not Garrett in any other season before now.

1. T.J. Watt, EDGE, Steelers

I still have to lean toward Watt, though, because he has been more productive across the board beyond hurries. Watt has 19 sacks to Parsons’s 14. He has 36 quarterback knockdowns to Parsons’ 33. He has four forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries to Parsons’ one. He has an interception, a defensive touchdown and six batted passes. Parsons has zeroes in those categories. Run stop win rate appraises them as roughly similar, although we’ve seen teams take advantage of Parsons’ aggressiveness when they’ve run on the Cowboys this season.

In terms of season-changing plays, Watt has made more big plays in close games for the Steelers than Parsons, whose rush to win the game against the Seahawks stands out as a notable exception. The Steelers wouldn’t have a winning record if not for Watt, who has far and away been the best defensive player on a team that’s been utterly dependent on its defense to win games. (Porter came closest, but even he didn’t get going until October.) Again, if Parsons or Garrett were your pick, I wouldn’t bat an eye. To me, however, Watt has been the most productive and impactful edge rusher in football over the full season. It’s tough to imagine the Steelers being competitive without him in the postseason.

My pick after Week 4: Parsons

My pick after Week 9: Garrett

Offensive Player of the Year

With the MVP award becoming the domain of quarterbacks, I always reserve this award for the best non-quarterback on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t think there’s much controversy about the three guys in their own tier competing for the top spot; the only player I’d consider making a case for otherwise is George Kittle (49ers), who was the league’s top receiving tight end while maintaining his usual excellent level of blocking. Instead, his teammate jumped out in front and into third place …

3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers

This feels like a vintage season for McCaffrey, but upon closer inspection, he has been much more of a traditional back than it seems. That’s not a criticism or a complaint, just an observation: McCaffrey is less of the hybrid sensation we saw during his first breakout with the Panthers and more like a great runner who has a standard role in the passing game.

It’s pretty easy to make the case that he has been the best runner in football. He leads in the league in attempts (272) and rushing yards (1,459) and is second among backs in rushing touchdowns (14) behind Raheem Mostert. He leads the league in rush yards over expectation (346), with his league-best workload pushing him 70 RYOE ahead of second-placed De’Von Achane.

As a receiver, McCaffrey was more solid than superstar. He ranked fourth among backs in yards per route run with a solid-but-unspectacular mark of 1.48. He was at 1.99 last season, including a 1.93 mark after joining the 49ers. That’s the difference between T.J. Hockenson and Tyler Conklin at receiver. McCaffrey was more of a threat near the goal line, where he scored seven receiving touchdowns, and I don’t doubt that the threat of him kept defensive coordinators awake at night. But Brock Purdy didn’t use McCaffrey as a receiver anywhere near as often this season, and that’s why he lands at No. 3 for me.

2. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys

Last week, I wrote about how Lamb led the league in catches and receiving yards from Week 6 onward. He then subsequently had his best game as a pro, catching 13 passes for 227 yards in a narrow win over the Lions, including a 92-yard touchdown on a scramble drill. Leaving Week 18 aside to allow for more comparisons to the past, he had the 10th-most receiving yards in NFL history between Week 6 and Week 17.

There were questions once upon a time about whether Lamb might be best in the long run as a slot receiver. It’s become clear he can play anywhere. He ranked ninth in yards per route run out of the slot, but he was actually better on the outside, where he finished fifth. He was also second in open score behind Keenan Allen; he has settled in as a more explosive, toolsy version of the Chargers standout.

1. Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins

Hill was in a class of his own. While he didn’t end up setting the single-season receiving record after battling injuries in December, he produced a season of spectacular, perhaps record-setting, efficiency. The former Chiefs star averaged 4.03 yards per route run, becoming the first player since at least 2007 to produce a season starting with a “4” by that metric.

We don’t have data on routes going back before then, but if you were more efficient than Randy Moss in 2007 or Calvin Johnson in 2012, you’re doing something right. Hill has been uncoverable for long stretches of the season and absolutely essential to the Dolphins’ offense; Tua Tagovailoa’s QBR drops from 63.4 to 47.5 when his star wideout hits the sideline. Hill was on pace to be a viable MVP candidate, but after his late-season decline, he’ll have to settle for merely being the easy pick for Offensive Player of the Year.

Most Valuable Player

And then there was MVP. With a few weeks to go in the season, I thought Hill would be my pick. He was on pace to become the first wideout in league history to rack up 2,000 receiving yards, the Dolphins were in position to have a shot at landing the top seed in the AFC, and every one of the quarterbacks had flaws. That fell apart when Hill had a quiet final month. I’m tempted to give Watt some consideration, but the great pass-rushers are so close to one another this season that it’s hard for any of them to stand out as MVP candidates.

So, it’s quarterback or bust, and many of the players who seemed like candidates before the season weren’t candidates by the end. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson all went down injured. Jalen Hurts’ and Trevor Lawrence’s teams melted down in December. Patrick Mahomes’ receiving corps hasn’t been able to catch passes. Josh Allen has thrown too many passes to the other team. Jared Goff ran too hot and cold. Tua Tagovailoa led the league in completion percentage and passing yards, but more people seemed willing to attribute the success of the Dolphins’ offense and their potential MVP votes to Hill. And C.J. Stroud was brilliant, but he missed two games in December, which was just enough to bump him from the list.

In the end, there were four candidates for three spots. My last quarterback off was Matthew Stafford, who looked like a new man with Puka Nacua, a running game and an offensive line that didn’t include players the Rams were signing off the street in midseason. Stafford had some of the best throws of the season, but with no running impact, I’m not sure he was such a better pure passer than the other players ahead of him to justify jumping into the top three.

3. Dak Prescott, Cowboys

This was Prescott’s best season as a pro. He was better by most metrics as a rookie in 2016, but that was when he was in a run-first offense and threw the ball just under 29 times per game. He threw the ball nearly 35 times per game in 2023 and posted his best full-season figures for EPA per dropback and Total QBR since that debut campaign.

Even the most adamant Prescott hater would have to admit he made strides. The interception rate spike that drove months of offseason conversations unsurprisingly regressed back toward the mean, as he threw just nine interceptions across 17 starts. He led all qualified starters in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) despite seeing his receivers post the second-highest drop rate for any quarterback. Nobody had better touch on their throws; there were so many times this season when I saw Prescott drop a ball directly into his receiver’s hands 20 or 30 yards downfield, even if it meant splitting double coverage to do so.

The popular perception was that Prescott was spiking his numbers against a soft midseason stretch of opponents for the Cowboys. I won’t argue with the schedule being mediocre, but he comfortably outplayed other quarterbacks who played those same opponents. After he led the Cowboys to a comeback victory in a prime-time shootout win over the Seahawks, then threw for 271 yards and two scores in a blowout win over the Eagles, it felt like Prescott was ready to launch his MVP campaign.

It didn’t quite take. He had one of his worst games of the season in getting blown out by the Bills in Buffalo. The offense was inconsistent over the next two weeks. Prescott lost a fumble and went most of two quarters without scoring before getting hot late in an eventual loss to the Dolphins, while he threw an interception and again went nearly two quarters without scoring in a controversial win over the Lions.

Over that three-game stretch, the Cowboys went 1-2 and Prescott posted a 55.8 QBR, which was good enough for only 15th in the league. The Cowboys still ended up winning the NFC East by virtue of the utter collapse occurring in Philadelphia, but in a tight race, Prescott needed to be playing his best football against those future playoff teams to win MVP. He did not.

2. Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers

We’re going to look back at 2023 in 20 years and be very confused. Purdy’s season is either going to be a historic outlier, in line with something like what Nick Foles did for Chip Kelly in 2013 or Andy Dalton’s 2015 campaign, or we’re going to be totally confused about how and why he didn’t win MVP. I don’t think anybody has ever had a season like Purdy’s and not won this award.

– – –

The stats, almost universally, point to Purdy as the MVP. He led the league in QBR, yards per attempt, yards per dropback, first-down rate, passer rating and EPA per dropback. He was the starting quarterback all season for a team that went wire-to-wire atop its division and came within one midseason losing streak of doing so in the conference. Surpassing Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t make a player an MVP, but Purdy has been far more productive in 2023 than either Garoppolo or Purdy were with McCaffrey & Co. a year ago.

Of course, that supporting cast is being given a ton of credit. I had McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Trent Williams as first-team All-Pros as their respective positions. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel weren’t far off at wide receiver. Kyle Shanahan’s propensity for getting Purdy the right call undoubtedly factors in here. The 49ers averaged 6.4 yards after catch, trailing only the Chiefs, who threw the shortest average pass of any team.

The 49ers had the league’s best playmakers when I ranked each team’s unit before the season. That’s not unprecedented. Was Purdy’s supporting cast really better than what Mahomes enjoyed in his breakthrough season in 2018? He had prime Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, a $16-million-per-year third receiver in Sammy Watkins and a star running back coming off a Pro Bowl season in Kareem Hunt. I’d probably take the 49ers there, but it’s not a dramatic difference, and nobody batted an eye at Mahomes winning MVP that season.

Two factors led me to drop Purdy from first to second. One was how he declined in October when Trent Williams and Samuel missed a pair of losses to the Vikings and Bengals. We’ve seen other quarterbacks decline when their best tackle gets hurt — take any Eagles quarterback with Lane Johnson — but Purdy’s QBR dropped by more than 10 points without Williams on the field. He was blessed to have McCaffrey and Kittle all season, but it did seem telling that he went from dominating to struggling overnight once he lost two of his stars for a short stretch.

The other one was a matter of bad timing. It’s one thing to have an ugly performance at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday in September on local television. It’s another to have your worst game of the year in prime time on Christmas against an MVP rival in what might have been the most anticipated game of the season. Purdy wasn’t as bad against the Ravens as his final line indicated, as some tipped passes and screens that might have fallen incomplete on a friendly day fell into Baltimore’s hands on a bad one, but you can’t throw four interceptions in the Game of the Year in Week 16 and not expect it to crush your MVP hopes. A decade from now, if Purdy continues to play at or near this level, not giving him this award will look silly. Right now, though, I can understand why the mood has shifted toward my pick.

1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

When Jackson was my MVP pick at the midway point of the season, it was almost by default. The Ravens had been too sloppy with drops and fumbles, some of the latter belonging to Jackson himself. They had to tighten things up, survive a brutal AFC North and hope Jackson stayed healthy all season after bowing out in December with injuries each of the prior two years if the Ravens quarterback wanted a shot at claiming his second MVP award.

That’s exactly what happened. Jackson became the passer anyone who paid close attention to him at Louisville believed he could be. Given a much larger menu in the passing game by new coordinator Todd Monken and a group of new playmakers in Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor, Jackson thrived and posted career-best figures for completion percentage and yards per attempt, all while enduring the league’s fifth-highest drop rate.

With the threat of Jackson and the running game terrifying opposing defenses, the hope was always that a new coordinator would unlock him as a play-action passer. After ranking 11th in QBR on play-action attempts between 2021 and 2022, Jackson thrived there this season. His 84.2 QBR on play fakes was second behind Derek Carr, who attempted them only half as often. Jackson averaged more than 10 yards per dropback off of play-action, threw nine touchdowns against two picks and threw in 17 scrambles for 120 yards for good measure.

As I wrote about this midseason, Jackson also owned the intermediate zone of the field. His 95.9 QBR mark on those throws in the 11- to 20-yard range was the best of any quarterback, as he averaged a league-best 12.5 yards per dropback on them. He has often been good here as a pro, but his ability to hit receivers in stride helped a Ravens offense that didn’t always hit its deep shots march downfield.

Jackson’s ability to improvise and work out of structure played up with better receivers. He ranked second in QBR on throws after holding the ball for four or more seconds, trailing only Prescott. He ranked 11th in that same category between 2021 and 2022.

And for a player who was once regarded as a problem throwing outside the numbers, Jackson showed he had no issues hitting those throws in 2023. His 77.3 QBR on those throws ranked seventh in the league, and he attempted them more than 14 times per game. That’s way more than Purdy, who averaged just over 11 throws outside the numbers per game in 2023. Jackson was fourth in yards per attempt on those throws, trailing only Purdy (who was excellent when he did throw out there), Stafford and (of all people) Desmond Ridder.

Jackson wasn’t as explosive on the ground as he was at his best in 2018, but he still led all quarterbacks in rush yards over expectation (177) and converted eight first downs over expectation on his carries. His success rate was actually just below league-average for quarterbacks when you take out kneel downs for everyone, but his volume and the threat of Jackson running helped get the Ravens offense out of tight spots and created opportunities in the passing attack.

There were two key contrasts between Jackson and Purdy that both earned him my vote and will probably swing the race in the real balloting. One is what Jackson did with the spotlight in December. First, he outdueled Purdy, throwing for 252 yards and two touchdowns in a comfortable Ravens victory in late December. The following week, facing a Dolphins team that handed the Ravens a crushing loss after a comeback last season, Jackson torched Vic Fangio’s defense for 321 yards and five touchdowns. After so many other MVP favorites had disappointed in their close-ups, Jackson elevated his game and played his best football in the spotlight.

The other factor is seeing how Jackson has been able to sustain and even elevate his game without key players in the offense. J.K. Dobbins tore his Achilles in Week 1, and while the Ravens have cobbled together a competent attack with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, Baltimore didn’t have any explosiveness on the ground until it incorporated Keaton Mitchell. The undrafted rookie then tore his ACL in December.

While the Ravens landed a difference-maker in Flowers and got productive weeks out of Beckham and Agholor, both Beckham and 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman missed time earlier in the season. More crucially, tight end Mark Andrews has been sidelined for the last month and a half with a fractured fibula, while left tackle Ronnie Stanley has seen his role reduced into a rotation out of concerns about his health and a season in which he has allowed six sacks and 61 pressures at left tackle.

Unlike Purdy, who struggled after losing Williams and Samuel earlier this season, Jackson has continued to play at a high level. Without Andrews, the Ravens have simply inserted backup Isaiah Likely, who had five touchdown catches in the final five games. Hill had 64 receiving yards against the Dolphins. Agholor and Patrick Ricard caught receiving scores down the stretch from Jackson, who simply never stopped working and kept finding open receivers when his most prominent targets broke down. Jackson outlasted the field, which is how he ended up as my MVP for 2023.

My pick after Week 4: Tagovailoa

My pick after Week 9: Jackson

RANKING THE PLAYOFF TEAMS

No big surprises here from Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com – although other than past playoff performance (and that could be big), we don’t think the Chiefs have earned the #4 spot:

The 2023 NFL regular season is in the books, which means it’s time for the real games to begin. All 14 playoff spots are finalized, and the race toward Super Bowl LVIII and the Lombardi Trophy is about to get underway.

Upsets and surprises are all part of the experience, so it’d be foolish to count on just about anything. But here’s how we’d rank all the contenders going into the tournament, from least to most likely to hoist the trophy on Super Bowl Sunday (be sure to check out the entire playoff schedule here):

14. Buccaneers (9-8)

Baker Mayfield deserves credit for exceeding expectations as their trial-run quarterback, and Todd Bowles’ defense has quietly clamped down in the last month, particularly against the run. But their old-school, ball-control brand has been more scattershot outside the NFC South, and Bowles’ group tends to lean painfully conservative in pivotal spots.

13. Steelers (10-7)

Mike Tomlin has once again pulled a rabbit out of his hat, navigating staffing turmoil and quarterback injuries to keep Pittsburgh above water. But as sharp as Mason Rudolph’s been off the bench, this is the only playoff team with a negative point differential, and now the defense’s best difference-maker, T.J. Watt, is banged up. They’ll still be scrappy as always.

12. Eagles (11-6)

Has there ever been a team to start 10-1 the year after a Super Bowl bid, only to look this deflated? There are special players on this roster, but all the pizzazz of their 2022 run has vanished in an increasingly apathetic 1-5 stretch to end the year. The defense can’t stop anyone, but perhaps there’s hope for Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and Co. to rediscover magic on the road.

11. Packers (9-8)

Not so dissimilar to the Rams, their fellow wild card entrant, they weren’t supposed to stay relevant while rebuilding with a stripped-down defense. And certainly Joe Barry’s unit remains a liability. But QB Jordan Love has been such a revelation alongside a quietly deep group of speedy young wideouts. Paired with Aaron Jones and Matt LaFleur’s ground game, they can play spoiler.

10. Browns (11-6)

Joe Flacco has been a story of the season, coming in off the street to chuck it left and right, bringing a sorely lacking authority to Kevin Stefanski’s passing attack. Will it hold up against playoff defenses? Maybe. Maybe not. But Jim Schwartz’s own stingy unit, headlined by Myles Garrett and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, may be opportunistic enough to offset the QB’s riskiness.

9. Texans (10-7)

Not even the biggest C.J. Stroud fans could’ve anticipated the rookie QB doing so much for Houston so fast. His pocket presence is far beyond his years, and DeMeco Ryans has consistently gotten more from their transitioning defense than expected. Are they still a year away from a deep run? Maybe. But with such youthful swagger, never say never.

8. Rams (10-7)

Matthew Stafford looked destined to break behind an iffy line early in 2023, but Sean McVay’s offense has been humming since a mid-November bye, helping L.A. go 7-1 during that stretch (with the sole defeat coming in overtime to the Ravens). Besides Aaron Donald, they’ve still got a makeshift “D.” But with Puka Nacua and their weapons, they can play shootouts.

7. Dolphins (11-6)

There might not be a more boom-or-bust squad in the dance. When operating at full health and speed, Mike McDaniel’s all-star lineup can light up the scoreboard, with the Tua Tagovailoa-to-Tyreek Hill connection among the NFL’s best. The issue is, they’re all banged up at the wrong time, leaving Tua to face big-game questions without a fully intact supporting cast.

6. Lions (12-5)

They’ve been a different animal at home versus on the road, with Jared Goff susceptible to turnover sprees against aggressive fronts, but when they’re firing on all cylinders, few clubs are as confident and controlled. Dan Campbell’s aggression from the sidelines is undying, and their sturdy front helps set up both a steady run and play-action attack.

5. Cowboys (12-5)

America’s Team is back on top of the NFC East, and we’ve seen many times this year that when Dak Prescott and Co. are clicking, there’s perhaps no prettier offense in the game. Prescott still warrants MVP buzz for the way he’s reclaimed the pocket as his domain, with CeeDee Lamb virtually unstoppable out wide and playmakers like Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland doing their own ball-hawking on the other side. But alas, Prescott and Mike McCarthy’s staff still have to get over the hump on the big stage.

4. Chiefs (11-6)

Andy Reid’s offense is typically video game-like in its creativity and execution, which has not been the case in 2023. But for all the frustration Patrick Mahomes has exhibited, the QB practically lives and breathes playoff football, not so unlike Tom Brady in his prime. And their Chris Jones-led defense has been nasty up front — top-five in sacks across the NFL.

3. Bills (11-6)

They struggled to close key contests earlier this year, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a more dangerous offensive trio than Josh Allen, James Cook and Stefon Diggs. They have January hurdles to clear, but throw in an improved Sean McDermott-led defense featuring ballhawk Rasul Douglas, and they might be the contender that nobody else wants to play.

2. 49ers (12-5)

It’s not a coincidence that Kyle Shanahan’s reached the NFC title game three times since 2019. A fourth trip would surprise no one, because Brock Purdy is the most poised, quick-footed point guard Shanahan’s ever deployed. Besides also boasting elite multipurpose weapons, they’ve still got an imposing defense. Their key will be getting out to early leads.

1. Ravens (13-4)

They’ve got all the ingredients of a true championship contender: a dynamic QB in Lamar Jackson who’s slinging it with effortless accuracy and can escape trouble with his legs, an experienced coach in John Harbaugh who’s been to the big stage before, and a fast, physical defense that can affect the ball at every level. They should be favored in every matchup.