DETROIT

He may have gone off in a cart on Monday with an apparent knee injury, but CB C.J. GARDNER-JOHNSON’s MRI was “clean” per a source of ESPN’s Field Yates.

MINNESOTA

You’ve heard of the dog eating one’s homework?

WR JORDAN ADDISON offers a reason he was jetting about St. Paul at 140 mph.  Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com has seen the police homework.

Minnesota Vikings receiver Jordan Addison said he was driving 140 mph last week because his dog was having an emergency at home, according to a citation filed Monday with the Ramsey County District Court and reviewed by ESPN.

The updated citation included misdemeanor charges for speeding and reckless driving. A description of the incident issued by the Minnesota State Patrol notes that Addison “stated his dog was having an emergency at his residence and that was the reason for his speed.”

According to the citation, a patrol officer observed Addison driving eastbound on I-94 Thursday at just after 3 a.m. at an “extremely high rate of speed,” later clocked at 140 mph. The posted speed limit in the area is 55 mph.

Driving a Lamborghini Urus with dealer license plates, Addison first slowed down when he saw police lights from another trooper who was pulled over on the right shoulder of the road.

Addison, 21, the No. 23 overall pick of the 2023 draft, issued a public apology a day later, saying he “made a mistake and used poor judgment.” He also promised “not to repeat the behavior” but did not say anything about his dog’s emergency.

SEATTLE

An extension for EDGE UCHENNA NWOSU:

The Seattle Seahawks have locked up edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu for the next three seasons, agreeing to an extension worth up to $59 million on the cusp of training camp, his agents Drew Rosenhaus and Ryan Matha told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Monday.

Nwosu’s deal includes $32 million guaranteed.

Nwosu thrived in 2022, his first season with the Seahawks. He started all 17 games and set career highs in sacks with 9½ and tackles with 66. Nwosu had 12 tackles for loss, forced three fumbles and recovered two.

Nwosu, 26, had three two-sack games, and the Seahawks were 7-0 when he recorded at least a half-sack.

A second-round pick by the Chargers out of USC in 2018, Nwosu spent his first three seasons as mostly a backup to Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, a pair of Pro Bowlers, before becoming a full-time starter in 2021.

He signed a two-year deal worth $20 million with the Seahawks before last season. That $10 million per-year average represented the largest the Seahawks had given to an outside free-agent addition since coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider arrived in 2010.

Information from ESPN’s Brady Henderson and The Associated Press was included in this report.

DENVER

The Gambling Division of NFL Justice lowers the boom on Broncos DE EYIOMA UWARZURIKE.  Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com:

Denver Broncos defensive end Eyioma Uwazurike has been suspended indefinitely for violating the NFL’s policy on gambling, the league announced Monday.

Uwazurike bet on NFL games during the 2022 season, the league said. He can petition for reinstatement no earlier than July 24, 2024.

A fourth-round draft pick of the Broncos in 2022, Uwazurike played in eight games last season with 165 snaps on defense and had the opportunity to push for more playing time this season.

“We were informed by the NFL [on Monday] that Eyioma Uwazurike has been suspended by the league indefinitely for violating its gambling policy,” the Broncos said in a statement. “Our organization fully cooperated with this investigation and takes matters pertaining to the integrity of the game very seriously.”

The NFL has now suspended 10 players this year for violations of its gambling policy. Three were suspended indefinitely last month: Isaiah Rodgers and Rashod Berry of the Indianapolis Colts and free agent Demetrius Taylor. In addition, Tennessee Titans tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere was suspended for six games.

Earlier this year, four Detroit Lions players and one Washington Commanders player were suspended for violating the policy.

In 2022, wide receiver Calvin Ridley, then with the Atlanta Falcons, was suspended for all of the ensuing season for violating the policy. Ridley was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars earlier this year.

The policy prohibits players from betting on the NFL; gambling at a team’s facility, including its hotel during road trips; from having others make bets for them; from entering a sportsbook facility; and from playing daily fantasy football.

NFL officials have said the league plans to reinforce its gambling policy to players. All rookies are required to attend mandatory education sessions and a group of league officials is making in-person visits to team facilities to emphasize and clarify what activities are prohibited.

During the Broncos’ offseason program, coach Sean Payton was asked about the team’s efforts to make players aware and understand the league’s gambling policy.

“We got a packet from the league,” he said at the time. “Obviously, when policies change, it’s our job to educate [the players]. [Vice president of football operations and compliance] Mark Thewes was awesome. We’re professional teachers. The packet we received, we looked at, studied [it] closely and then we presented it in our own PowerPoint. I probably had 20 minutes on it to really make sure everyone has it.

“If you’re a teacher and half your class gets a D, you better look at yourself. It’s not the policy, but it’s the implementation, the understanding, and the educating of the policy. I presented a week and a half ago, and now someone officially will present [it]. Hopefully it won’t be from that eight-page handout we received because that was more confusing after I read it than it was before I looked at it. I think we’re all on the same page.”

NFL gambling suspensions in 2023

Ten players have been suspended this year for violations of the NFL’s gambling policy. Listed in alphabetical order.

PLAYER                                SUSPENSION

Rashod Berry, IND                indefinite*

Stanley Berryhill, DET            6 games*

Quintez Cephus, DET             indefinite*

C.J. Moore, DET                     indefinite*

Nicholas Petit-Frere, TEN      6 games

Isaiah Rodgers, IND               indefinite*

Demetrius Taylor, FA              indefinite

Shaka Toney, WAS                indefinite

Eyioma Uwazurike, DEN        indefinite

Jameson Williams, DET         6 games

*Later released

LAS VEGAS

Once a Pro Bowler (actually three times a Pro Bowl pick), CB MARCUS PETERS comes to terms with the Raiders.  Anthony Gharib of USA TODAY:

The Las Vegas Raiders have reached an agreement with cornerback Marcus Peters on a one-year deal, according to multiple reports. Financial terms of the deal have not been reported.

Peters, a three-time Pro Bowler, had been with the Ravens since 2019 and appeared in 13 games last year after tearing his ACL in 2021. He immediately slots in as a starting corner for a Raiders team that was in dire need for one after ranking 29th last season in passing yards allowed (242.9 per game). Last month, Pro Football Focus ranked the Raiders secondary as the 30th best in the league.

A free agent this summer, Peters first visited with the Raiders in May before working out again with the team on Monday.

Peters as a rookie with a strong season for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2015. He led the league in interceptions (eight) and passes defended (26). That performance him Defensive Rookie of the Year and a spot on the All-Pro second team.

Peters followed that up by earning a berth on the All-Pro first team in 2016. He was traded to the Los Angeles Rams in 2018 and again scored first-team All-Pro honors the year after, when he was traded midseason to the Ravens.

MIAMI

For whatever went on at the South Florida marina – WR TYREEK HILL has reached a settlement.  ESPN.com:

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill has reached a settlement with the other party involved in an incident at a Miami Beach marina last month, attorneys for both sides announced Monday.

“The parties to the incident which occurred on June 18th, 2023 at the Haulover Marina involving Tyreek Hill have resolved their differences,” Evan Feldman, the attorney for an employee of Kelley Fleet Inc., and Julius Collins, the attorney for Hill, said in a joint statement provided to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

According to WPLG-TV in Miami, Hill allegedly hit a marina employee during a “disagreement” that Sunday. Miami sports radio show host Andy Slater reported that Hill slapped the employee on the back of the head but said the person declined to press charges at the time.

The incident was under investigation by the Miami-Dade Police Department, but no charges were filed against Hill.

The Dolphins released a statement last month through a spokesperson acknowledging the reported incident.

Hill, a seven-time Pro Bowl selection and a four-time first team All-Pro, is entering his second season with the Dolphins after spending the first six of his career with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Dolphins veteran players are scheduled to report to training camp Tuesday.

We can’t help but wonder how much money it took to make things go away.  Tens of thousands?  More?

THIS AND THAT

FANTASY STRATEGY AND MADDEN RATINGS

Why wouldn’t you jump on KC TE TRAVIS KELCE for your Fantasy team?  Two ESPN experts weigh in on Kelce and the rest of the tight end position:

Fantasy football draft strategy and roster construction are always hot-button topics at this time of year.

There are conversations about how important it is to lock down one of the elite running backs early, why you should target a mobile quarterback as your starter, and even the best way to draft and stream D/STs.

And thanks to the recent dominance of Travis Kelce, who has led tight ends in fantasy scoring six of the past seven seasons (including outscoring the No. 2 tight end by 101 points in 2022), there is lots of chatter about when Kelce should be selected in this year’s fantasy drafts … as well as whether you should just play the waiting game if you decide not to spend a first-rounder on the Chiefs star.

That’s where our ESPN Fantasy staff comes in. We asked our analysts to give their pros and cons to drafting Kelce in Round 1, as well as simply spending an early pick on a tight end and which late-round bargains they will be seeking out in drafts this year.

As you’ll see below, they aren’t all on the same page, which is just one of the reasons fantasy football is so fun. There are many ways to build a successful team.

1. What are the pros and cons of drafting Travis Kelce in the first round?

Eric Karabell: Drafting Kelce means you have a TE as good as nearly every WR and you don’t even have to think about drafting another TE again. Then again, there might be strong TE values in Round 10, and because you have Kelce, you have no need to investigate. Works both ways.

Eric Moody: Kelce provides fantasy managers with a significant weekly advantage at a position where there are few difference-makers. The biggest con is selecting him in the first round means you’ll miss out on one of the top fantasy running backs such as Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor.

Liz Loza: The biggest “pro” Kelce offers is security at an intensely volatile position. … The most looming “con” managers face is the potential of Father Time finally catching up with the 33-year-old and subsequently missing out on rostering an elite WR like Tyreek Hill or a sought-after RB like Bijan Robinson (both of whom have average draft positions similar to that of Kelce).

Matt Bowen: He’s the No. 1 option for Patrick Mahomes, a volume target in one of the league’s most explosive offenses. … In his past three seasons, Kelce has seen at least 130 targets a year, with a total of 32 touchdown grabs during that stretch. Easy money here. However, if you do take the plunge on Kelce, you will miss out on a Tier 1 player at a premium position — running back or wide receiver — when you could just wait on the tight end position instead. You can still find value and production with a mid-tier TE1 such as a George Kittle or Dallas Goedert.

2. What are the pros and cons of drafting your TE before you’ve filled your flex spot?

Karabell: I guess I don’t look at it that way. It’s all part of one larger puzzle. Draft based on value over need, at least in the first 10 rounds, and more often than not you will see you still need a tight end after you have filled the flex spot. That goes for 10- and 12-team formats.

Bowen: Drafting a Tier 1 tight end early — Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson — could put you in a position to avoid the recent volatility we’ve seen at the position. I’ve been there, too. It gets lonely on that waiver wire every week. But by doing so, you’re giving away an opportunity to land a pass-catching RB or a volume WR in PPR formats to fit in that flex spot. In 10-team leagues, let everyone else burn an early pick on a tight end, because that just frees up more valuable players to add to your squad. In deeper leagues, I will peek at the tight ends a little earlier, but I’m still eyeing that flex spot first. Yes, I could be jumping on the waiver wire by Week 3 to find a starting tight end, but I really don’t believe in drafting to fill your lineup. Target players, not positions. I am fine with streaming at tight end.

Loza: Selecting a TE in the first four or five rounds allows managers to secure the services of a top-tier player (Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson or Darren Waller), all of whom are projected to draw at least 100 targets. Waiting on the position, however, means investing in players who aren’t as prominently featured (from a pass-catching perspective) and, therefore, won’t garner as many receiving opportunities (for example, Kittle is the TE5 and projected to draw 85 looks, a substantial drop-off from Waller’s 100 expected targets). Employing this strategy means potentially missing out on players presenting with massive upside, including Jahmyr Gibbs and Chris Olave, both of whom are coming off boards in the fourth round of 12-team exercises.

3. If you do take a TE in the first five rounds, should that prevent you from also taking a QB in the first five rounds?

Moody: Not at all. By leveraging positional tiers, you can still build a balanced team by taking that approach. When the dust settles in the first five rounds of a 12-team league, you could have Tony Pollard, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Hockenson, Miles Sanders and Joe Burrow on your team. That’s a good start for any fantasy manager.

Bowen: Absolutely not. The top three QBs in points per game last season — Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Mahomes — were all drafted within the first six rounds. If you do draft a tight end early, don’t let that impact your philosophy on targeting mobile QBs in your league. And they go quicker than you think.

Loza: Justin Fields and Justin Herbert are popular fifth-round selections. Per ESPN ADP data, both QBs are being drafted after the top-four-ranked fantasy tight ends (Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, Waller). Rostering a QB and a TE in the first five rounds is certainly doable, but it means gambling on the upside of another position (likely RB).

Karabell: Of course, but one should never take a QB in the first five rounds of a standard draft, and I tend to behave similarly at tight end. There just aren’t enough safe, reliable running backs and wide receivers around to avoid those positions in the first five rounds.

4. If you wait until the later rounds, which TEs are you targeting this year?

Bowen: In the three 10-team leagues I play in, where I sit and wait on the position, I’m already eyeing up Pat Freiermuth, Evan Engram and Cole Kmet. Seam-stretching ability here, with passing schemes that cater to their route traits. In 12-teamers, my target list is a little deeper and includes Tyler Higbee, Juwan Johnson, Greg Dulcich and Chigoziem Okonkwo. If they bust? On to the weekly streamers. It’s simply not a priority position for me in fantasy.

Loza: Dalton Schultz is a high-floor player being drafted in the double-digit rounds. A reliable chain-mover who has managed top-12 fantasy numbers in back-to-back campaigns, Schultz figures to draw five to six looks per game in Houston. He’s not a flashy pick, but he figures to be one of the more consistent producers at the position.

Moody: David Njoku, Johnson, Okonkwo, Higbee, Gerald Everett, Hayden Hurst and Dulcich … all have the potential to exceed their fantasy projections.

Karabell: Schultz, Njoku and Higbee in 10-team leagues. Okonkwo and Dulcich in 12-teamers.

– – –

As to the Madden 24 QB ratings – PATRICK MAHOMES is the 99 Club at the position.  Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com:

Quarterbacks

It’s the most prestigious position in the game and potentially in any American sport: NFL quarterback. In recent years, quarterbacks have become the Madden Cover Man, including this year with Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

And in recent years, one quarterback has been above them all in Madden: Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is a member of the 99 Club for the third time in the past four seasons and the top quarterback for the fourth time in the past five years.

He’s twice been the cover athlete – once solo, once sharing it with Tom Brady – and is one of the most recognizable faces in the NFL. So the quarterback position in Madden starts with Mahomes, the defending Super Bowl MVP.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (99 overall): Mahomes regains the top spot after losing it to Tom Brady last season (Mahomes was third and a 95 overall). His throwing power (97) is second-best to Allen, his throw under pressure is No. 1 (97) and he’s second in all three throwing accuracy categories: Deep (91), medium (93) and short (98). Mahomes went up two in deep and medium accuracy from last season and three in short accuracy. By the time his career is over, Mahomes might have the most 99 Club honors in league history.

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (95 overall): Perhaps the gap shouldn’t be as big between Mahomes and Burrow, but it is for now and is a reflection of just how good Mahomes is. Burrow jumps from fifth and a 90 rating to second and a 95. He is the game’s most accurate thrower, tops in deep (93), medium (98) and short (99), jumps of seven, one and two, respectively, from last year’s ratings. His throw under pressure (94) is second to Mahomes.

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (94 overall): It’s the highest rating in the game for Allen, who told ESPN in June he hoped he would be higher than his 92 and No. 4 standing from last season. Allen has the game’s most throwing power (99), becoming an annual tradition. He’s tied for eighth among quarterbacks in speed (88) with Daniel Jones and Desmond Ridder. He’s third in throw under pressure (92), tied for fourth in deep accuracy (89), tied for sixth in medium accuracy (89) and tied for seventh in short accuracy (92).

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (91 overall): The last of the quarterbacks rated over a 90 — there were between five and six quarterbacks at 90 or higher in the last three editions of the game — Jackson is the fastest quarterback in the game (96) and tied for the eighth-fastest player overall. His throwing power is tied for eighth (93) and his throw under pressure is tied for fifth (89). In terms of accuracy, medium accuracy is the only place he’s in the Top 10, and he’s 10th at 86. Overall, he jumped from a tie for eighth at quarterback and an 87 rating back into the 90s and fourth.

5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (88 overall): Hurts began last season as a 74, tied with Justin Fields and players like Teddy Bridgewater, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo and Matt Ryan — none of whom finished the season as a starter. Hurts’ breakout season, culminating in a Pro Bowl and throwing for 3,701 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions along with 760 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns moved him well into the Top 10. Hurts is seventh in speed (89), tied with Jackson for fifth in throw under pressure (89), tied for eighth in deep accuracy (87), ninth in medium accuracy (87) and fifth in short accuracy (94). A massive jump for the now-Eagles franchise quarterback.

T-6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (87 overall): Herbert jumped up one spot from seventh while staying at an 88 for the second straight year. Herbert is third in throwing power (96) and tied with Ryan Tannehill for ninth in throw under pressure (87). He’s tied with Dak Prescott for sixth in deep accuracy (88) and is eighth in medium accuracy (88). He had his best completion percentage season in the league (68.2), but threw for fewer yards (4,739) and touchdowns (25) than 2021.

T-6. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (87 overall): Prescott stays at his sixth-place ranking from last year, dropping from an 89 to an 88 and into a tie with Herbert. Prescott had a worse completion percentage (66.2) than the year before and playing in just 12 games, had 23 touchdowns and an NFL-worst 15 interceptions. Prescott is tied for seventh in throw under pressure (88) with Geno Smith, is tied with Herbert for sixth in deep accuracy (88), is fifth in medium accuracy (90) and sixth in short accuracy (93).

8. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (86 overall): It’s a new team for the former MVP and a 10-point drop from a 96 overall last year to this year, his first not with the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers, a former 99 Club member who was rated in the Top 3 in Madden the past two seasons, received his lowest rating since he was an 86 in Madden ’10. That was Rodgers’ second year as a starter and he made his first Pro Bowl in the 2009 season. The ratings mirror where Rodgers ended last season, as an 86 overall. His throw under pressure is fourth (90), throw power is tied for eighth with Jackson and Trevor Lawrence (93), 10th in deep accuracy (86), tied for sixth with Allen in medium accuracy (89) and tied with Allen for seventh in short accuracy (92).

9. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (84 overall): Cousins enters the Top 10 mostly due to his accuracy. A career 66.8% passer, he completed 65.9% of his passes last season, but is rated No. 3 in deep accuracy (90) and No. 4 in medium accuracy (91). Cousins threw for the second-most yards of his career (4,547) last season and also his most interceptions (14).

10. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (83 overall): Tagovailoa, despite the serious concussion injuries, had the best season of his career in 2022, throwing for 3,548 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. That helped jump his rating up from a 75 to an 83. Last year, he and his backup, Bridgewater, were both rated 75s. Tagovailoa is a strong medium and short range passer in Madden, ranking third in medium accuracy (92) and fourth in short accuracy (96).

Dropped out from last year’s launch: Tom Brady (retired and No. 1), Russell Wilson (T-8), Matthew Stafford (10).

Here are the next 9:

Geno Smith               81

Jared Goff                 80

Kyler Murray              79

Derek Carr                78

Deshaun Watson      78

Jimmy Garoppolo      77

Russell Wilson           77

Justin Fields              76

Ryan Tannehill          76

PREDICTIONS – NATE DAVIS OF USA TODAY

Nate Davis of USA Today played out the 2023 season as he sees it unfolding.

He has a division winner finishing up four games in front (it’s not anyone you might be thinking).

He has a division with four teams with winning records.

Read on:

Summertime in the NFL, a period when those Gatorade bottles generally feel more than half-full as optimism tends to run high within teams and among their fans as training camps open everywhere.

After years of predicting win totals throughout the league at this juncture, I’ve belatedly realized it’s perfectly encapsulated by Journey’s anthemic “Don’t Stop Believin’,” perhaps more so in 2023 than before most seasons.

Don’t stop believin’.

Hold on to that feelin’.

Yes, “that feelin'” can be pervasive in July, when the free agent and rookie additions to each club feel like game changers, coaches and players are still spouting upbeat platitudes about what their team could ultimately become … but before injuries and a few losses have taken the bloom off the rose.

Some’ll win, some will lose.

Some are born to sing the blues.

Ah, the inescapable laws of math. While so many fans (and even media members) view teams in their largely optimized summer states – and maybe err on the side of a 10-, 11- or 12-win (or more) season – the reality is, for everyone of those campaigns, there exists a corresponding five-, six- or seven-win (or worse) stinker.

So, to the (fill in the blank) fans, just because I’m forecasting your team at 6-11, you shouldn’t perceive this as a slap in the face – just an honest assessment and the unavoidable truth that not everyone can be 11-6.

(A note on methodology: Using the most current information amid a few iterations of this exercise, I simply select winners and losers for all 272 regular-season games to arrive at my projections. The outcomes allow me to apply tiebreakers, when needed, to determine and seed the 14-team playoff field.)

And one last nod to Journey …

Just a city boy …

Born and raised in South Detroit.

He took the midnight train going anywhere.

As for you, pal, maybe don’t book that ticket out of Motown just yet? More on that later as I reveal my 2023 outlook for all 32 teams (numbers in parentheses denote playoff seeding):

NFC EAST

(1) Philadelphia Eagles (12-5): Their schedule, in what projects as a weakened NFC, suggests that a talent-laden team which started 13-1 last season on its way to Super Bowl 57 – and one led by QB Jalen Hurts, the 2022 MVP runner-up who appears to be the conference’s top quarterback – could bolt to another hot start. Reality signals there will be a few speed bumps for a club breaking in two new coordinators, a half-dozen new starters and which owns – overall, based on the 2022 winning percentages of its opponents (.566) – the league’s toughest docket. Still, the reigning conference champs, given present circumstances, seem to have a favorable path back to a No. 1 playoff seed.

(6) Dallas Cowboys (9-8): Their schedule is nearly as brutal as Philly’s, including road games at San Francisco, Buffalo (in December) and Miami. There are also other red flags. LB Micah Parsons says he’s bulking up from his listed weight of 245 pounds, the presumption being he could spend even more time deployed as a pass rusher – and it takes me back to 2013, when Von Miller bulked up to 270 pounds and had his worst season as a pro. But perhaps most concerning is the assertion from head coach Mike McCarthy, Dallas’ new offensive play caller, that “I want to run the damn ball.” But with sledgehammer RB Ezekiel Elliott no longer on the roster, can McCarthy – never particularly committed to the run when he ran Green Bay’s offense – realistically follow through with scatback Tony Pollard and a cast of unproven backups? “America’s Team” is talented enough for a third straight playoff trip under McCarthy … but hardly looks primed to reach its first NFC title game (or Super Bowl) since the 1995 season.

Washington Commanders (7-10): There’s already a palpable sense of relief from the city and even players like WR Terry McLaurin following the departure of disgraced and disgraceful former owner Dan Snyder. That alone should lift what had become a perpetual cloud over a locker room and staff constantly forced to answer questions about the controversies sparked by Snyder. Between the lines, Washington has gone 22-27-1 in three regular seasons under HC Ron Rivera. With unproven second-year QB Sam Howell projected to start, hard to envision much more than another seven or eight victories … though this team might resemble the 2022 Jets (7-10), an otherwise imposing roster perhaps just a proven quarterback away from immediate contention.

New York Giants (6-11): Despite a feel-good 2022 – when this decidedly average team did enough to qualify for a wild-card berth and win a playoff game before getting thoroughly embarrassed by the Eagles in the divisional round – it was hard to get too enthused about Big Blue with such a daunting schedule ahead, including 2022 playoff teams in five of the first six weeks. Then the good feels were further diluted by the failure to reach a contractual commitment to franchised RB Saquon Barkley, who very much appears to be the offense’s linchpin after accounting for nearly 30% of its yardage last season. Seems another team may have to carry the Big Apple’s hopes in 2023.

NFC NORTH

(3) Detroit Lions (11-6): Only a tiebreaker (a Week 4 loss to Seattle) kept them out of the playoffs last season, when the Lions won eight of their final 10 games. To take the next step forward, Detroit will need to avoid another slow start under third-year HC Dan Campbell – a task obviously made more challenging with an opening-night date at Kansas City. But the guess here is that a revamped secondary – part of a defense that ranked last overall in 2022 – an imposing offensive line, first-round RB Jahmyr Gibbs and a boost from second-year WR Jameson Williams (after his six-game gambling suspension ends) will give this club its first division title since 1993.

Chicago Bears (7-10): GM Ryan Poles seemed to improve this roster by a few increments after some substantial free agent investments and by offloading the No. 1 pick of the draft in a transaction that could really pay off in 2024. WR DJ Moore should immediately elevate the league’s worst passing offense, while LBs Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards ought to stabilize a defense that surrendered the league’s most points in 2022. But the real lift needs to come from third-year QB Justin Fields, who’s vowed to become the Bears’ first 4,000-yard passer this year … which means he might well become the first NFL player to rush for 1,000 yards while throwing for 4,000. Feels like at least a four-game improvement in the win column.

Green Bay Packers (7-10): Coming off an 8-9 season with departed legend Aaron Rodgers, all eyes are on new QB1 Jordan Love, who has one unremarkable start in four NFL seasons. He’ll face the unavoidable pressure of extending a three-decade heritage of quarterbacking excellence behind Rodgers and his predecessor, Brett Favre. Both had strong maiden seasons as the starter, though neither took the Pack to the playoffs. Remains to be seen how much leeway Love gets at a time when young passers don’t tend to get a lot of slack. It would help if Green Bay proves it’s a much better running and defensive team than was displayed in 2022. Might not help that Love and Co. will only play at Lambeau Field three times prior to November.

Minnesota Vikings (7-10): They won the division last year with a glittering 13-4 record, however a regression to the mean appears especially inevitable for a crew that was somehow outscored overall during the 2022 season – its average margin of defeat 22.3 points. Since then, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Adam Thielen, LB Eric Kendricks and OLB Za’Darius Smith were among those purged. The Vikes should still be able to score at a good clip, but new DC Brian Flores, in particular, has his work cut out for him.

NFC SOUTH

(4) New Orleans Saints (9-8): They’ve gone 16-18 in two years post-Drew Brees, middling quarterback play the primary culprit for such mediocrity. Some will argue new QB1 Derek Carr exemplifies mediocrity at his position – yet he should offer an upgrade in a division that had no team with a winning record in 2022, all four clubs now undergoing changes behind center. Carr instantly becomes the most accomplished passer in the division and will be backed by the best defense he’s ever played with. And even if RB Alvin Kamara is suspended after pleading no contest to a misdemeanor charge of breach of peace for his role in a 2022 fight in Las Vegas, New Orleans’ run game should be in good hands with RBs Jamaal Williams and third-rounder Kendre Miller. Anything oft-injured WR Michael Thomas provides is gravy.

(7) Atlanta Falcons (9-8): Third-year coach Arthur Smith doesn’t get sufficient credit for getting the most from his talent – and Atlanta hasn’t had much while going 7-10 each of the past two seasons. Second-year QB Desmond Ridder is an obvious X-factor but went 2-2 in a late-season audition as a rookie. But he’ll operate behind a top-tier line and with WR Drake London, healthy TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson – he projects as a top candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors – at his disposal. Last year’s 27th-ranked defense still looks iffy but should be better at every level with veterans like DL Calais Campbell, LB Kaden Elliss and S Jessie Bates III coming aboard. Toss in what’s statistically the league’s easiest schedule, and the Dirty Birds could indeed be playoff bound for the first time since 2017. (Note: The Saints win the NFC South in this projection due to a superior record in divisional games.)

Carolina Panthers (7-10): Very few holes in this lineup, if not very many stars – though No. 1 draft pick Bryce Young is expected to become one, perhaps sooner than later if the 22-year-old (as of Monday) quarterback and new HC Frank Reich quickly fall into a groove. If Young and some of the other inexperienced players who comprise this team’s enviable core progress more quickly than expected, the NFC South crown shouldn’t be out of the question.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-12): Tom Brady’s retirement brings Tampa’s three-year party to a close … and it was already winding down last season, when the Bucs limped to the division title with an 8-9 mark. Expect a far more balanced offense post-TB12 – though no telling what that means with rookie coordinator Dave Canales, a virtually unrecognizable line, an unproven group of runners and QB Baker Mayfield, now on his fourth team in little over a year, presumably the at the helm. A defense that was largely responsible for this club’s Super Bowl 55 walkover has hardly been elite since, but the interior line pairing of Vita Vea and first-rounder Calijah Kancey could unlock something special.

NFC WEST

(2) San Francisco 49ers (11-6): It’s tempting to be bullish about a team that’s reached the NFC championship game three of the past four seasons and features, arguably, the league’s preeminent offensive mind in HC Kyle Shanahan. Oh, and a full season with RB Christian McCaffrey and a motivated Deebo Samuel – not to mention the addition of DT Javon Hargrave to last year’s No. 1 defense – only fuels enthusiasm in the Bay Area. But … how long will it take QB Brock Purdy to settle in after missing the offseason following elbow surgery and his Week 1 availability still in some doubt? Will the offensive line struggle after the departure of RT Mike McGlinchey during free agency? And what will the loss of coordinator DeMeco Ryans mean for that swarming defense? Another slow start certainly isn’t out of the question for a team that was 4-4 coming out of its bye in 2022.

(5) Seattle Seahawks (10-7): Rejuvenated on both sides of the ball thanks to the draft bounty brought from last year’s trade of QB Russell Wilson, Pete Carroll’s team is very much starting to resemble the one that won a Super Bowl a decade ago – what with the makings of a loaded secondary, deep D-line, LB Bobby Wagner (again) lording over the defense, a running game that should pound relentlessly and a quarterback (Geno Smith now) who keeps things moving with a minimum of mistakes … at least based on the 32-year-old’s 2022 breakout. And, with first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba joining WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the passing game should be far more formidable than Seattle’s 2013 forebears. The 49ers have very little margin for error with the Seahawks seemingly on a steep ascent.

Los Angeles Rams (7-10): DL Aaron Donald, QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp missed a combined 22 games last year as the Rams crumbled to 5-12, the worst record ever for a reigning Super Bowl champion. Assuming that trio is healthy, LA should again be competitive … if this team can score 30+ points a week due to a stripped-down D that has almost nothing beyond its three-time Defensive Player of the Year.

Arizona Cardinals (2-15): Even if volatile QB Kyler Murray was 100%, a team undergoing regime change amid the loss of established veterans like WR DeAndre Hopkins and DE J.J. Watt would look quite suspect coming off a four-win season. Owners of Houston’s first-round pick next spring, the Cards could have a legitimate shot at selecting No. 1 and No. 2 in the 2024 draft.

AFC EAST

(1) Buffalo Bills (13-4): The expectations last year were outsized and unrealized. But if OLB Von Miller’s Week 12 knee injury didn’t cripple this team beyond repair, then the emotional toll exacted by S Damar Hamlin’s terrifying on-field collapse five weeks later certainly seemed to. Hamlin has made a remarkable recovery, and Miller should be playing his usual complement of snaps when Buffalo really needs him – when winter hits and during the playoffs. S Jordan Poyer is also back, and his new teammates include DE Leonard Floyd, RB Damien Harris and first-round TE Dalton Kincaid. Assuming everything remains on the rails with sometimes enigmatic WR Stefon Diggs, this team could do significant damage while perhaps spending far more time under the radar during the regular season.

(5) New York Jets (12-5): They were in the thick of the AFC wild-card race well into December until the league’s worst quarterback play torpedoed them with a season-ending six-game losing streak. That won’t be the case in 2023 amid the arrival of Rodgers, coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, WR Allen Lazard and other former Packers who are implementing an offense that helped the four-time MVP to two of those awards in 2020 and 2021. A merely passable offense will be a boon to a defense that ranked fourth overall last year despite getting little help. The readiness of second-year RB Breece Hall (ACL) and a challenging schedule will likely be early obstacles. But plugging Rodgers into this situation seems for more akin to Brady joining the Bucs or Stafford going to the Rams than the disastrous first year of Wilson’s marriage to the Broncos in 2022. If that proves remotely true, the Jets will have the best quarterback in club history (sorry, Joe Namath) and their first Super Bowl trip in 55 years.

(7) Miami Dolphins (11-6): Naturally, so much rides on the health of fourth-year QB Tua Tagovailoa, who was the league’s highest-rated passer (105.5) in 2022, when he missed four starts and most of a fifth battling concussive effects. But if he’s right, an offense with so many explosive play makers should pile up points – especially if rookie Devon Achane can help kickstart the run game. Yet Miami, a wild-card entry during HC Mike McDaniel’s first season, should make its biggest leap on defense as veteran coordinator Vic Fangio takes command of an 18th-ranked but talented crew that welcomes Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey and will have OLB Bradley Chubb for a full season.

New England Patriots (7-10): The defense should be typically stout, and the offense again has a bona fide coordinator with the return of Bill O’Brien. But it doesn’t appear he’s working with much in the way of primo weaponry aside from RB Rhamondre Stevenson. This could be a make-or-break season for third-year QB Mac Jones … and possibly even for HC Bill Belichick, who’s on the hot seat according to a report from NBC Sports Boston. And BB, now 25-26 since Brady’s free agent departure in 2020, is very much in jeopardy of suffering his first last-place finish since 2000 (his first year in Foxborough) given how much it seems this roster has fallen behind the rest of the division.

AFC NORTH

(2) Cincinnati Bengals (12-5): Yes, they’re breaking in new starting safeties and face a tough schedule that includes out-of-division road games at Tennessee, San Francisco, Jacksonville and Kansas City. But Joe Burrow, PFF’s top-ranked quarterback in 2022, could very well be primed for an MVP turn with the league’s best three-receiver set still at his disposal following a season when Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd all missed time. Perhaps more important, LT Orlando Brown Jr. should further stabilize an offensive line that was once again in shreds by the time last season’s AFC championship game rolled around.

(6) Baltimore Ravens (11-6): Now financially secure, expectations have probably never been grander for QB Lamar Jackson, now four years removed from his MVP season and coming off two campaigns he was unable to finish after missing 10 collective starts since 2021. Yet it remains to be seen how he’ll adjust to new coordinator Todd Monken’s offense, though the spread system has been likened to the one in which Jackson won the Heisman Trophy at Louisville. This ain’t college, but Jackson has never had this kind of wideout talent at his disposal in the NFL, veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and first-rounder Zay Flowers possibly vying to become this franchise’s first Pro Bowler at the position. Oddly, the Ravens’ top concern might be vulnerability on defense, where there’s a lack of depth at corner and questions along the front. (Note: A Week 17 win over Miami gives Baltimore the No. 6 seed in this projection.)

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6): Maybe 11 wins feel overly optimistic at first blush given the conference gauntlet and the especially unforgiving AFC North. But consider that the Steelers closed 2022 with a four-game win streak – salvaging HC Mike Tomlin’s perfect streak without a sub-.500 season – and that was with rookie QB Kenny Pickett, OLB T.J. Watt out nearly half the season and RB Najee Harris not quite resembling the player who was so productive as a rookie in 2021. And with likely future Hall of Famer Patrick Peterson and second-rounder Joey Porter Jr. aboard to solidify the corners for a pass defense that slipped to a No. 19 ranking, a two-game improvement from 9-8 ought to be perfectly achievable. (Note: An inferior record in conference games, compared to both Baltimore and Miami, eliminates Pittsburgh from wild-card contention in this projection.)

Cleveland Browns (10-7): This outlook – and, in all likelihood, HC Kevin Stefanski’s job – are dependent on QB Deshaun Watson reverting to his Pro Bowl peak and progressing past his 2022 showing, when he looked like a poor fit for Cleveland’s offense and was subpar in what amounted to a knocking-off-the-rust, preseason-caliber performance. Continuity can only help … as would the emergence of Elijah Moore or David Bell into another dependable wide receiver. And don’t be surprised if DE Myles Garrett, now playing opposite fellow pass rusher Za’Darius Smith, makes a run at the single-season sack record (22½).

AFC SOUTH

(4) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7): They certainly appear on the upswing after their first division title since 2017 broke a string of four consecutive last-place finishes. And QB Trevor Lawrence and an ascending offense should only continue to trend upward if Calvin Ridley proves to be a WR1 after sitting out 2022 due to a gambling suspension. The Jags could really run away with an eminently winnable division if recent first-round defenders Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd and K’Lavon Chaisson contribute something closer to what’s expected of them than what they’ve provided to date. Also noteworthy that the Jaguars will become the first team to play in London twice in one season – in consecutive weeks and with no bye immediately following – but it should be interesting to see what (if any) effect that has for a team so accustomed to playing abroad.

Tennessee Titans (8-9): Even with the signing of Hopkins, prospects for this club feel rather muted. But let’s not forget the Titans were the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed in 2021 and were 7-3 before the wheels came off last season … when they would have salvaged the division championship had they been able to win at Jacksonville in Week 18. Difficult to picture any team coached by Mike Vrabel coming completely unglued. Yet also tough to foresee what happens with RB Derrick Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill – he missed five games in 2022 – entering contract years, a scenario that seems to invite the possibility that Henry could be traded before the Halloween deadline while leading to the potential promotion of rookie QB Will Levis down the stretch.

Houston Texans (6-11): Maybe their first franchise quarterback (rookie C.J. Stroud) post-Watson? Maybe their first impact defender (rookie Will Anderson) post J.J. Watt? Maybe their first entrenched head coach (Ryans) post-O’Brien? For a team that hasn’t won more than four games in any of the past three seasons, a half-dozen victories would most certainly qualify as significant progress.

Indianapolis Colts (4-13): They’ve finally made a long-term investment under center with promising first-round QB Anthony Richardson, though he doesn’t come with nearly the amount of big-time college experience as Young or Stroud. Pessimism should morph into optimism in Indy in 2023 even if the standings don’t reflect much change. But expect the Colts to become tougher to deal with the more reps Richardson gets. And he should benefit from being paired with rookie HC Shane Steichen, who helped Hurts blossom into a superstar in 2022.

AFC WEST

(3) Kansas City Chiefs (11-6): They followed up their last Super Bowl victory, following the 2019 season, with another AFC title in 2020. That could certainly happen again, and maybe the Chiefs even become the first team to successfully go back to back in 19 years. But the impediments will be many. As previously noted, the conference is nasty. A first-place schedule that includes the entire AFC East is forbidding. Reigning MVP QB Patrick Mahomes will be playing in front of a pair of new tackles (Donovan Smith, Jawaan Taylor). OC Eric Bieniemy is also off to Washington, though Matt Nagy returns to the role he had when Mahomes was a rookie in 2017. Speaking of 2017, that’s the last time K.C. won fewer than 12 games – Mahomes only started once that year – so I may be selling the Chiefs short even in a year when they have to play at Jacksonville, at New Jersey (against the Jets), in Germany (against the Dolphins) and catch the Bills coming off their bye and the Bengals on a short week.

Denver Broncos (10-7): If new HC Sean Payton is reason enough to believe they can recover from last year’s debacle, then consider the return of WR Tim Patrick – a year removed from a torn ACL – an offensive line fortified by free agency and a leaner Wilson under center. And better luck has to surface for a team not only waylaid by injuries in 2022 but one that lost nine of its 12 defeats by seven points or fewer.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-10): Glass half-full, they progressed to postseason in 2022. Glass half-empty, the past two seasons under HC Brandon Staley have concluded with unmitigated disasters, worthy of the Bolts’ tortured history. Maybe Staley’s underachieving defense, which completely collapsed in the playoff loss to Jacksonville, improves. Maybe QB Justin Herbert fully blooms into an MVP candidate under first-year OC Kellen Moore. Maybe they won’t fold under the pressure of playing six prime-time games. Yep, per usual, probably too many “maybes” for the Chargers to overcome.

Las Vegas Raiders (3-14): It appears new QB1 Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) is finally cleared to practice heading into camp, the kind of good news that’s generally been in short supply around this team for most of the past two decades. Still, despite ties to HC Josh McDaniels, it feels like Jimmy G. and Co. face quite an uphill battle to respectability given the state of the Silver and Black’s defense and the potential absence of disenfranchised franchise-tagged RB Josh Jacobs. A schedule that begins with three of four on the road and concludes with matchups against three 2022 playoff outfits in December hardly helps. Super Bowl 58 may be in Vegas, but the Raiders will need tickets for admission.

NFC playoffs

Wild card: (2) 49ers def. (7) Falcons; (3) Lions def. (6) Cowboys; (5) Seahawks def. (4) Saints

Divisional: (3) Lions def. (2) 49ers; (1) Eagles def. (5) Seahawks

NFC championship game: (1) Eagles def. (3) Lions

AFC playoffs

Wild card: (2) Bengals def. (7) Dolphins; (3) Chiefs def. (6) Ravens; (5) Jets def. (4) Jaguars

Divisional: (2) Bengals def. (3) Chiefs; (5) Jets def. (1) Bills

AFC championship game: (5) Jets def. (2) Bengals

Super Bowl 58 (Las Vegas)

Eagles def. Jets