PHILADELPHIA

DT JALEN CARTER is a “baby rhino.”  Matt Mullin in the Philadelphia Inquirer:

Anyone who has been paying attention to Eagles training camp — or has watched either of their preseason games — shouldn’t be surprised by what Jalen Carter’s teammates have to say about him. Any time you’re beating All-Pro opponents badly, like the rookie did during joint practices with the Browns, you’re doing something right.

Carter has been flashing in the games as well, backing up a solid debut with another strong showing, albeit in limited action, against Cleveland. But it’s been at practice, especially in joint practices that return this week against Indianapolis, where Carter has really stood out.

And that play has got everyone talking, including his teammates.

“I know ya’ll heard the report about Jalen Carter, man, breaking the sled. I’m talking about buddy is strong,” cornerback Darius Slay said on his “Big Play Slay” show on YouTube. “I’m not going to compare him to who I want to compare him to, but I’ve been around a lot of great [defensive] tackles. I’ve been around [Ndamukong] Suh, Haloti Ngata, Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave. I’ve been around a great group of guys who play defensive tackle, man, and I’m trying to tell you, Jalen Carter, this kid is just very, very dominant, man. He’s very physical, quicker than what you think, and stronger than how he looks.”

Over the weekend, offensive lineman Lane Johnson, who has an up-close view of just how strong Carter is, compared the rookie to “a bigger Geno [Atkins],” in addition to comparing him to Hargrave as well. But Slay took it a step further.

“He looks like a baby rhino,” Slay said. “You ever seen a baby rhino and you just [think] he’s crazy, I’m talking about he’s pushing folks back. You can ask Lane Johnson. Lane Johnson said it himself, one of the best tackles in the game, said this guy is ready to play right now and is ready to take control of a game right now. He’s a game-changer.”

ATLANTA

They are excited about RB BIJAN ROBINSON in Atlanta per The Athletic:

One Question: Can Bijan Robinson live up to the hype?

Everyone seems to agree there is no rookie more exciting than Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson. Sure, Bryce Young has impressed the Panthers. C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson have had nice showings in camp. But everyone’s pumped to see Bijan highlights.

If you’re trying to jump on the bandwagon, you’re a little late. But there still might be a seat or two left:

Robinson is a running back prototype. He’s got a solid frame and he’s lightning quick. Can catch the ball from anywhere. In his final season at Texas, he was responsible for 20 touchdowns and almost 1,900 yards from scrimmage. He was easily RB1 in this year’s draft.

The moment he stepped onto the Falcons’ practice field, you heard the whispers. Saw the posts. “Bijan looks even better than they expected.” Etc etc. But that’s just hype, right?

Doesn’t seem that way. In Josh Kendall’s story from earlier this month, to a man, every Falcon could not stop gushing about the rookie. My favorite quote was from Cordarrelle Patterson, who will share carries with Robinson: “He’s a f—ing awesome football player.”

Robinson made his preseason debut over the weekend, ripping off a 12-yard gain on his first carry. He had a major impact on what ended up being a 15-play drive. It’s easy to see the vision.

He joins the Falcons at an interesting time. It’s hard to say it’s exciting just yet, but they were plucky last year. A staggering eight of their 10 losses came by a single possession. They were the anti-Vikings.

Can Desmond Ridder really be the guy at quarterback? Jury’s out. But if Robinson lives up to the hype, the QB might not need to be elite for the Falcons to make the playoffs.

If you’re not ready to bet on the Falcons, at least consider taking Robinson in your fantasy draft. He makes an appearance in our beat writer draft, out this morning, which has one fantasy takeaway for each team.

Atlanta’s pick? “Bijan Robinson is what they thought he was.”

CAROLINA

RB MILES SAUNDERS says not to worry – he will make his Panthers debut in Week 1 at Atlanta.  David Newton of ESPN.com:

– Carolina Panthers running back Miles Sanders said Tuesday he “absolutely” will be ready for the Sept. 10 opener against the Atlanta Falcons.

The 2019 second-round pick by the Philadelphia Eagles missed the past few weeks of training camp with a groin injury that sidelined him for the first two preseason games.

But he practiced in full pads Monday and Tuesday and showed no signs that the injury will be a problem moving forward.

At one point during Tuesday’s practice, Sanders broke through the line and showed the burst that prompted the Panthers to give him a four-year, $25.4 million contract during an offseason when running backs in general were being devalued.

He looked so good that coach Frank Reich didn’t rule him out for Friday’s preseason finale against the Detroit Lions.

“TBD,” said Reich, who plans to start rookie quarterback Bryce Young and most of the first-team offense in the 8 p.m. ET game at Bank of America Stadium.

But there is nothing to be determined about what Sanders can add to Reich’s spread offense.

“We do feel like Miles has the opportunity and potential to be one of our playmakers,” Reich said. “He’s explosive. He’s [a] dual threat. He’s got long speed, he’s got burst, he’s got quickness, he’s got good vision. That’s why we went out and got him.”

Running backs coach Duce Staley, who worked with Sanders during the back’s 2019 and ’20 seasons with the Eagles, agreed.

“Miles has the dog inside of him that I love,” said Staley, a running back in the NFL for 10 years. “His preparation, his focus, just getting back, being able to feel good after suffering that injury was No. 1. He’s been working his butt off to get back in practice first.”

ARIZONA

The Buccaneers have named their Week One starting QB in BAKER MAYFIELD, but one team has flown under the radar in not committing to anyone – the Cardinals.  And there is a decent chance you have never heard of one of the two QBs in contention with QB KYLER MURRAY unhealthy.  Darren Urban at AzCardinals.com:

Jonathan Gannon was asked if veteran Colt McCoy had done enough to be named the starter against Washington Sept. 10, and the coach would not say that.

“When we need to name the starters we’ll name the starters,” Gannon said. “He’s doing a good job. I thought he operated well. I think he’s getting more and more comfortable with what we are asking him to do. He’s obviously played a lot of football but I like where his game is trending.”

In this, Gannon’s first season, it’s hard to know what that might mean. Maybe Gannon just doesn’t want to announce anything for any player even if he knows who might be starting some places. There is little question he prefers to keep info under wraps. Or maybe Clayton Tune still has a chance to be QB1 against the Commanders. It’s fascinating to watch play out.

Of course, whoever is quarterback is biding time until Kyler Murray returns to the field, and that too remains an unknown. Gannon was asked if he knew yet if Kyler (PUP list) or rookie cornerback Garrett Williams (NFI list) if they will remain on those lists when the season starts — which would keep them from practice or games for at least four weeks.

“You guys will figure it it out when they get out there,” Gannon said. “You guys will probably get the news about it before I do.”

Methinks it’s highly unlikely Gannon won’t know about Murray’s status long before the public. But I also think we’re not going to know these answers until Gannon and the Cardinals absolutely have to reveal them. That day is not today.

SEATTLE

Just when we finally got spelling “Tagovailoa” down without peaking along comes Seattle WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com with an update on his hand:

Seahawks rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba will miss 3-4 weeks with his fractured wrist, coach Pete Carroll said Tuesday. That puts Week 1 in jeopardy considering the season opener against the Rams is 19 days away, but Carroll said the team is going to be “optimistic.”

“He’s going to get surgery by the hand specialist,” Carroll said, via video from Brady Henderson of ESPN. “Kind of a slight fracture that we just want to make sure that we do the right thing to ensure he gets back as soon as possible and as safe as possible. So, we’re going to be optimistic about it. Three or four weeks, and we’ll see what happens.”

Smith-Njigba flew to Philadelphia on Tuesday to undergo surgery, but he has not gone under the knife yet.

He was injured in Saturday’s game against the Cowboys when he was tackled near the goal line. The 20th overall pick made six receptions for 83 yards in two preseason games, including a 48-yard catch against Dallas.

On the other hand, the return of S JAMAL ADAMS seems imminent.  Mike Florio:

The Seahawks could soon be getting one of their most important players back on the practice field.

Coach Pete Carroll told reporters on Tuesday that safety Jamal Adams could be back on the practice field this week, either Wednesday or Thursday.

“It’s in our conversation right now and there’s a chance we’ll have him back out here tomorrow,” Carroll said. “That’s a big step for him to go forward, but it isn’t a step that means he’s going to be out practicing yet. We want to get him in the flow, looking at the weeks we have to build up and looking at the preparation time. He’s ready to do that, and I brought it up to him and he responded really well. I think tomorrow or the next day we’ll get that done.”

Adams suffered a quad injury in Week 1 of the 2022 regular season. He hasn’t played since then.

He’s entering his fourth season in Seattle. He has not played more than 12 games in any season with the Seahawks.

The injuries come from a reckless abandon with which he plays. He’s determined to make plays, without regard to his own safety. It’s a great asset for the team to have when he’s healthy. It becomes a challenge to keep him that way, given that intense desire to do the job as well as he can.

Last year, the Seahawks made it to the playoffs without him. On paper, they’re better this year. If he can play most of the season, the Seahawks could be even better than they were in 2022.

KANSAS CITY

Kansas City DT CHRIS JONES has a strategy, that will cost him $9.5 mil, in the timing of his return to the team.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

When Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones vows to stay away until Week 8 of the regular season, it’s not some random date that he pulled out of the air.

For Jones, and any player under contract who is looking to satisfy a contract year and move closer to free agency, Week 8 is the magic number.

It accounts both for the minimum number of games to be on the roster and the maximum number of games the player can be placed on a roster-exempt list. It shows that Jones’s strategy is to show up as late as possible, finish the season, get credit for the last year of his current contract, and qualify for free agency in 2024.

The only flaw in the strategy comes from the availability of the franchise tag. But Jones could hold out under the tag without financial punishment, in an effort to force a long-term contract or a trade. And he could show up again in Week 8 of next season, play part of the year, make part of his money, and do it all over again.

Jones will lose $7.5 million if he skips seven regular-season weeks. He’ll also owe more than $2 million in non-waivable fines.

But he apparently doesn’t care. He knows this is his last shot at a major payday. His last chance to break the bank.

Whether he’s serious about staying away for seven regular-season games remains to be seen. It’s definitely one of the available options, in lieu of simply accepting the best offer the Chiefs are willing to make — and relenting to the potential effort to get more players (like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce) to tolerate being underpaid in the name of chasing championships.

TENNESSEE

A multi-million dollar house explodes in North Carolina, leaving the father of Titans CB CALEB FARLEY dead:

The father of Tennessee Titans cornerback Caleb Farley died in an explosion that destroyed the NFL player’s North Carolina home and left another person injured, authorities said.

Robert M. Farley was found dead in the debris of the Lake Norman, North Carolina, house Tuesday morning, said Kent Greene, director of Iredell County Fire Services and Emergency Management. Robert Farley was 61.

First responders arrived at the house a few minutes after midnight Tuesday and found Christian Rogers, 25, exiting the collapsed structure, Greene said. Rogers, a friend of the family, was transported to Atrium Health Carolinas Medical Center in Charlotte with a concussion. He is “awake and alert,” Greene said, but has not been discharged from the hospital.

Greene said gas must have accumulated over a long period of time and likely found its way to an ignition source, which caused the explosion. The blast, which local authorities have ruled accidental, originated in a bedroom and did not damage any surrounding homes.

The house is on a large plot of land about 28 miles north of Charlotte. County property records list the assessed value of the home as nearly $2 million.

Farley addressed his father’s death in a series of Instagram stories Tuesday night, writing “Daddy you a legend I love you 4L” and “You wasn’t suppose to go out like this pop.”

In the front yard Tuesday, insulation hung from the trees, and a king-size mattress and broken coffee mug saying “Virginia Tech dad” lie on the lawn. Wood debris and window frames were blown at least 50 yards from the blast.

“There could not be anyone in it left alive — that was my first thought,” Greene said. “And when I found out someone did walk out of it, I was amazed. This was a 6,300-square-foot home, and there’s nothing left but maybe a part of the garage.”

Property records list Caleb Farley as the homeowner. The player was not there at the time of the reported explosion, Greene said. His teammates said earlier Tuesday that he was one of the last players to leave the locker room Monday night.

Titans coach Mike Vrabel gathered the players after practice Tuesday afternoon. Vrabel informed them of what happened and then they took a knee to pray for Farley.

“What’s most important is that we do everything we can to support him emotionally,” Vrabel said. “It’s shocking. We’ve got to focus on Caleb and his family, and how we can support him.”

Farley, the No. 22 overall pick in the 2021 draft, was placed on injured reserve in November with a back issue. He has played 12 games in his first two seasons and is on the physically unable to perform list as the Titans wrap up training camp this week.

“We were the last ones in the locker room last night just hanging around,” running back Derrick Henry said. “I’m praying for his family. It’s a tragic situation. I couldn’t describe the way he probably feels right now.”

In college, the 6-foot-2, 197-pound cornerback was the first high-profile player to opt out of the 2020 season because of the coronavirus pandemic. He lost his mother to cancer in 2018 and was unwilling to put another loved one at risk while playing at Virginia Tech.

The local fire marshal’s office is continuing to investigate the cause of the collapse along with the North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation, Dominion Energy and the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms.

Greene said it wasn’t yet clear who might be liable for the explosion as multiple agencies probed its cause. The gas meter used to measure the volume of fuel gases flowing into nearby homes has been sequestered and does not pose any present danger to others in the community, Greene said.

“I know he lost his mother at a young age as well,” Titans safety Kevin Byard said of his teammate. “He’s dealt with a lot of adversity. It’s very tragic. It’s an unimaginable tragedy.”

MIAMI

The Dolphins are shrugging off a rant from ESPN’s Ryan Clark about the health of QB TUA TAGOVAILOA.  Hal Habib of the Palm Beach Post:

Ryan Clark’s bit was good for a laugh on the set at ESPN, even if it won’t seem funny to South Florida.

Speaking on the network’s NFL Live studio coverage, Clark ripped Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, accusing him of not working out this offseason, of not following the team nutritionist’s recommendations and of, well, being fat.

“Let me tell you what he wasn’t doing: He wasn’t in the gym, I’ll bet you that,” Clark said.

Clark was only getting warmed up while soaking in laughter from the other panelists.

“He might spend a lot of time in the tattoo parlor,” Clark said. “He was not at the dinner table eating what the nutritionist had advised. He looks ‘happy.’ He is thick. He’s built like the girls working at Onyx right now.”

Clark did not mean “happy” in a good way. And Onyx is a strip club in Atlanta.

The Dolphins, needless to say, have an entirely different take on Tagovailoa and his preparation for this season. Coaches, teammates and Tagovailoa himself have consistently remarked about how hard he has worked to better prepare his body for the rigors of a 17-game NFL season. Coincidentally and possibly without any knowledge of Clark’s comments, Dolphins quarterback coach Darrell Bevell praised Tagovailoa while meeting with reporters Tuesday morning.

“You have to give credit to Tua for all of the stuff that he’s done in the offseason to prepare himself,” Bevell said.

Bevell added, “I expect him to have a great year. You know, I thought he was on track to do that last year. And we’ve talked a lot about obviously being on the field for all the games and I think he’s really taken that to heart and done the things that he needs to to at least put him in a position to be able to do that.”

After suffering at least two concussions last season, including one that ended his season after a Christmas Day game against Green Bay, Tagovailoa famously took up jiu-jitsu to learn how to protect himself when he falls. There’s more.

“Just a lot of heavier weights,” Tagovailoa said three weeks ago. “A lot more reps with the heavier weights, things like that. But everything that I did this offseason entailed to what would keep me on the field for the entirety of the season. We understand that freaky things can happen. It’s football. It’s a physical sport. Not everything that you prepare for is what you’re going to get. So, I did the best that I could to get myself ready and prepped for this season as far as injuries go.”

It’s possible, if not likely, Clark was just spouting opinions based on observations of Tagovailoa. But were his assertions that Tagovailoa didn’t hit the gym and was careless at the dinner table based on inside knowledge? ESPN did not immediately respond to a request from The Post for clarification.

Tagovailoa’s trainer, Nick Hicks, took a poke at Clark on social media, writing, “Very strange preference in exotic dancers .. I for one do not enjoy them looking like elite football players.”

Clark had a 13-year NFL career at safety, primarily with the Pittsburgh Steelers starting in 2006. He has won a Sports Emmy as outstanding personality/studio analyst. It’s possible his feelings for Tagovailoa pre-date their NFL connections. Clark attended LSU; Tagovailoa went to Alabama.

Clark’s reference to a tattoo parlor were because Tagovailoa added an elaborate tattoo covering much of one arm.

“It’s a piece that represents my first child,” Tagovailoa said. “There’s a lot of things that go on behind it, a lot of cultural significance, a lot of things that have to do with protection, guidance. Sort of things like that that we believe in the Samoan culture.”

As for Clark’s claim about Tagovailoa ignoring his nutritionist, two weeks ago, Tagovailoa addressed that without getting into specifics.

“Yeah, I changed my diet up a little bit,” he said. “But outside of that, it was what it was. Like I said, I’ve just been trying to give myself the best opportunity to hopefully not get injured.”

The Dolphins list Tagovailoa at 6-feet-1, 227 pounds. Last season’s final roster had him at 6-1, 217.

NEW YORK JETS

A historic moment is upcoming, but Steve Serby, veteran scribe of the New York Post, is not looking forward to QB AARON RODGERS making a rare preseason appearance:

Aaron Rodgers knows what he needs to do to feel good and ready for the regular season better than I do.

“Hard Knocks” will have a more compelling episode with Aaron Rodgers playing in Saturday night’s preseason finale against the Giants than with him on the sideline with headphones, watching Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle.

If you are the Jets’ fan, you cannot wait for the moment No. 8 trots into his huddle, your huddle.

You are also the Jets’ fan, which means you have seen the unfathomable and the unimaginable (cough, Buttfumble) and the inconceivable and the incomprehensible (cough, IK Enemkpali breaking Geno Smith’s jaw in locker room, cough, Neil O’Donnell pulling a calf muscle backpedaling in the end zone during pregame warm-ups).

FDR apparently wasn’t a Jets fan. The only thing you have to fear is not fear itself.

It is another “Only the Jets” moment.

And so this all-too-familiar disturbing sense of dread and trepidation is gripping you as your Hall of Fame quarterback, your savior, trots into his huddle, your huddle.

You can be excused for asking yourself: Is the reward worth the risk?

I say No.

I would keep Aaron Rodgers in Bubble Wrap.

I say no, recognizing that I’m not here to deliver you a Lombardi Trophy.

That if Rodgers says yes, if he wants and believes he needs this dress rehearsal, well, it’s clear as day that he gets what he wants when he wants it.

Even if Robert Saleh is still searching for his five best men to serve as bodyguards for the crown jewel.

If Rodgers is adamant that he wants and needs the feel of live game action, be it against Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams and Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari or second-teamers fighting for their Giants lives, just get him out of there after one possession, just as Brian Daboll did with Daniel Jones last Friday night.

Is there another quarterback anywhere who knows his offense as well as Aaron Rodgers knows the Aaron Rodgers Offense?

Last time I checked, the Sept. 11 regular-season home opener against the Bills would be two weeks of invaluable fine-tuning practices away.

I get that it would be beneficial for Rodgers to get a chance to fine-tune the operation with OC Nathaniel Hackett. And sure it would be nice to throw to Garrett Wilson for the first time in a game (of sorts). Sure it would be nice to rep the quarterback-center exchange with Connor McGovern.

I ask myself: Is the reward worth the risk?

I tell myself: No.

Tackle Duane Brown, who turns 38 on Aug. 30, is expected to be removed from the PUP list any time now. The alternative tackles are Max Mitchell, Billy Turner and … Mekhi Becton. LG Laken Tomlinson and RG Alijah Vera-Tucker will be returning to practice this week. So there’s that. Becton brutalized the Bucs reserves on Saturday night for what it’s worth and is champing at the bit for a promotion.

Brett Favre played two preseason series against the Commanders and the first half against the Giants after joining the Jets in August 2008, but he didn’t have the comfort of an offensive coordinator he knew and trusted (Hackett), or wide receivers he knew and trusted (Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb). Nor did he participate in any offseason activities with the Packers after announcing that March one of his umpteenth retirements before changing his mind.

Injuries can happen. Jets fans, of course, might remind you of the time Chad Pennington was tackled from behind by Giants LB Brandon Short in a 2003 preseason game and suffered a dislocated and fractured left wrist that sidelined him for nine weeks.

Or he or she might remind you of the time that Rex Ryan decided to insert Mark Sanchez in the fourth quarter of the 2013 Snoopy Bowl against the Giants. Sanchez suffered a shoulder separation and lost his job to Smith.

Eli Manning needed 12 stitches for a three-inch cut on his forehead in a 2010 preseason game against the Jets. IronManning played the first half 12 days later against the Ravens and two possessions in the preseason finale against the Patriots.

“It was good to get back out on the field and get playing,” Manning said at the time. “As a quarterback, obviously, the most important thing in the preseason is getting used to getting hit again.”

Better that Aaron Rodgers, who last played in the preseason in 2018, gets used to getting hit again when the games start to count.

Todd Bowles had Tom Brady play in the third preseason game last summer after Brady had been excused from training camp for 11 days for personal reasons and missed the first two preseason games. He played one possession (6-for-8, 44 yards) even after the Bucs had lost trusted center Ryan Jensen earlier in training camp.

“It’s important for game continuity,” Bowles said at the time. “We have some new guys on the O-line. We have some new guys at receiver.” (Brady was 18-for-27 for 212 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in the season-opening win over the Cowboys).

Prior to playing in the second preseason game in 2018 against the Eagles, Brady said: “They’re important. If it was a waste of time, we wouldn’t do it.” (He didn’t play in the preseason finale against the Giants and was 26-for-39 for 277 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT in a 27-20 win over the Texans in the opener).

Nobody is suggesting it is a waste of time.

It’s just that I ask myself: Is the reward worth the risk?

I tell myself: No.

But I’m not the designated savior of the New York Jets.

I’m not Aaron Rodgers.

But make it a cameo.

Get him the hell out of there in a Big Apple minute.

And from the moment he trots into his huddle, your huddle, everyone from Woody Johnson to Joe Benigno will either have his fingers crossed, or say a prayer. And should.

One of the longest relationships in the NFL is over.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

It’s a discount double-cross.

After 12 years, the relationship between quarterback Aaron Rodgers and State Farm has ended.

Via Sportico.com, the insurance giant confirmed that the sponsorship deal ended after the 2022 season concluded.

“We wish Aaron the best in his future endeavors,” a State Farm spokesperson told Kurt Badenhausen of Sportico, in an email regarding the termination of the deal that dated back to 2011.

As noted by Badenhausen, State Farm reduced the number of Rodgers commercials during the 2021 season, after Rodgers’s late-career heel turn assumed an anti-science vibe, regarding the COVID vaccine — and regarding a deliberate plan of deception as to whether he had received it.

Even when Rodgers was careful to not offend anyone, he was never a significant draw for corporate America, with the likes of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Patrick Mahomes soaking up the advertising dollars. It remains to be seen whether Rodgers 3.0 — a happy, go-lucky player in a region known for interpersonal rancor — becomes a marketing draw.

If it’s ever going to happen for Rodgers, it needs to happen now. The clock is ticking on Rodgers’s career, and he has entered the biggest marketplace for anyone looking to make extra money by lending a name and/or a likeness to a brand.

Online reports estimate Rodgers payday for the ads was about $3 million per year.

THIS AND THAT

BILL BARNWELL – 4 TEAMS THAT WILL REGRESS

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com gives us 4 teams he thinks will decline in 2023 from 2022.  The Vikings have to be on the list, right?

Time to break down the four teams most likely to decline. Given that the preseason is the most optimistic time of the year for most franchises before reality sets in after Week 1, you can imagine what the replies typically look like.

The results here are hard to ignore, however. Using many quantitative metrics to lead the way, I’ve named 30 teams in this column over the past six years. Twenty-four of those teams declined the following season. Four maintained their winning percentage, while just two of those 30 improved. The average team declined by 3.2 wins per 17 games. (Moving from a 16-game to a 17-game season makes these comparisons a little messier.)

Last year was a surprising 4-1 performance. Why surprising? The Packers and Titans were two teams that seemed immune to the math. Both defied the odds after appearing on the 2020 list. While the Packers declined by a single loss in 2021, the Titans won the AFC title. Injuries and regression toward the mean finally got them last season, as both fell below .500.

Misplaced optimism over the addition of Davante Adams didn’t save the Raiders, who dropped from 10-7 to 6-11. The Steelers needed a second-half surge to come close, but since the NFL counts a tie as a half-win for purposes of winning percentage, 9-8 was narrowly worse than 9-7-1. The Falcons were the team whose decline I felt surest about, and they defied the odds, sticking at 7-10 for the second consecutive season. I’ll stand on identifying four playoff teams that each failed to make it back to the postseason.

Here are four more likely candidates to decline. Three made it to the postseason in 2022, but I see only one likely to return. It isn’t the team at the top of this list that has been in this spot since sometime in December.

Minnesota Vikings

Record in 2022: 13-4

Point differential in 2022: minus-3

2022 record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 9-0

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 15th toughest

No sense in leaving the team everyone knew was coming until the end. You already know the story with the 2022 Vikings because it became part of the conversation surrounding the team, which I couldn’t have imagined happening a decade ago. They went 9-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer and threw in a couple of wins by eight points for good measure. No team in NFL history has ever gone undefeated while winning that many close games. In the playoffs, Minnesota promptly lost a one-score game to the Giants in the wild-card round.

Earlier this offseason, I took a deep dive into the Vikings and the team that will appear next on this list, so I won’t go into detail with all my findings here. I’ll just play back the key points. The Vikings were 13-4, but they were outscored by three points. They ranked 26th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), the Football Outsiders statistic that measures performance on a play-by-play basis. By win probability added, they played like the Rams and Broncos through three quarters and were the best team of the past decade by far in the fourth quarter.

In all, the Vikings outperformed their Pythagorean expectation by 4.6 wins; even after adjusting for the extra game, that’s the largest gap between point differential and win-loss record through 1989. It’s tough to find comparable teams for them from the past, simply because they are such significant outliers versus virtually every other team in recent history.

The best I can do is look at the 12 prior teams that had outperformed their Pythagorean expectation by at least three wins in a given season to see whether they hold any sort of hope for the Vikings. The first signs aren’t positive. Those teams went 82-14 (.854) in one-score games during their outlier season. During the following campaign? Those same teams went 46-43 (.517). Gulp.

What happened to those 12 teams?

The 1992 Colts fell from 9-7 to 4-12, in part because quarterback Jeff George, the No. 1 overall pick in the 1990 draft, held out to open the season after being benched the previous season. The best thing about the 1993 season was that it eventually landed Indy the No. 2 overall pick, which it used on future Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk.

The 1999 Titans made an unexpected leap to 13-3 and came within a yard of winning Super Bowl XXXIV. They managed to maintain their success the following season, as they dramatically improved their underlying level of play and went 13-3 with a 12.9-win Pythagorean expectation. Is there hope for the Vikings?

The 2004 Steelers rode a rookie quarterback by the name of Ben Roethlisberger to a stunning 15-1 record before losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. They fell to 11-5 the following season, with Roethlisberger missing four games because of various injuries, but still won the AFC North and finished as Super Bowl XL champions. The Vikings would settle for that, right?

The 2009 Colts went 14-2 and advanced all the way to Super Bowl XLIV before falling short against the Saints. The 2010 team went 10-6, and while that was good enough to win the AFC South, the Colts were upset at the buzzer by the Jets in the wild-card round in what turned out to be Peyton Manning’s final game in a Colts uniform.

The 2011 Chiefs were themselves disappointing, as a team that had made the playoffs in 2010 started 5-8 and fired coach Todd Haley before beating the previously undefeated Packers and finishing 7-9. That win was enough to get Romeo Crennel the full-time gig, but the 2012 Chiefs dropped to 2-14. Again, there was a bright side: The organization replaced Crennel with newly fired Eagles coach Andy Reid, and that has gone pretty well since.

The 2012 Colts were a model-breaker. They went 11-5 with a 7.2-win Pythagorean expectation. The following season, they went … 11-5 with a 9.4-win Pythagorean expectation. Then they went 11-5 with a 10-win Pythagorean expectation. Andrew Luck didn’t sustain any ability to win a disproportionate number of close games after that point, but the Vikings have to hope they can thrive as the Colts did in defiance of the numbers.

The 2016 Raiders broke out with young stars Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack surrounding Derek Carr. They emerged from years of cap doldrums with a 12-4 season, only for a Carr injury to sink their playoff chances. They added Marshawn Lynch to the mix for 2017, but the magic was gone; they fell all the way to 6-10, leading ownership to fire Jack Del Rio and replace him with Jon Gruden.

The 2019 Packers went 13-3 in Matt LaFleur’s first season at the helm. They also broke the rules of this exercise, sustaining their 13-3 record the following year, with Aaron Rodgers winning MVP. They fell ever so slightly to 13-4 the following season, as Rodgers claimed another trophy, before they finally broke last season and dropped to 8-9.

The 2020 Browns were a feel-good story, as new coach Kevin Stefanski unlocked the best out of Baker Mayfield and pushed the team to its first playoff victory since 1994. Browns fans were excited about taking the next step after improving their defense, but it didn’t come; Cleveland dropped to 8-9 and Mayfield moved on to Carolina.

The 2020 Chiefs had gone 8-0 in one-score games as part of a 14-2 season. They had Patrick Mahomes. I put them in the “likely to decline” column with as much trepidation as possible, even acknowledging they were going to take only a small step backward. In the end, they started 3-4 and finished 12-5 in what was Mahomes’ worst season, going 5-3 in one-score games in the process.

The 2021 Raiders were last year’s poster boys for regression toward the mean, a 10-7 team that had the point differential of a 6.9-win team. New coach Josh McDaniels believed in his team’s chances, trading for Davante Adams and signing Chandler Jones in free agency. The Raiders dropped from 7-2 in one-score games to 4-9 and quickly fell out of the race in the AFC; after finishing 6-11, they cut Carr and moved on to the Jimmy Garoppolo era.

There are some positive tales in there for the Vikings. Three of those 11 teams managed to maintain their record from the prior season. Another declined but still won the Super Bowl. Minnesota was such an enormous outlier relative to its record that it could decline by three or even four wins and still be favored to win the NFC North given the upheaval around the division.

The Vikings haven’t conducted their business this offseason as if they were one of the best teams, which is no surprise given that they have one of the more analytically inclined front offices in the league. They’ve gotten younger, moving on from veterans Patrick Peterson, Eric Kendricks, Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen, while taking shots on the upside of free agents Byron Murphy and Marcus Davenport.

They decided against an extension for 35-year-old quarterback Kirk Cousins, whose latest salary restructure voids after the 2023 season. He was 28-27-2 in one-score games before last season. If the Vikings disappoint, this will likely be Cousins’ last season in purple and gold. If coach Kevin O’Connell has somehow unlocked a formula for winning close games with Cousins, though, they would have to give their signal-caller a new deal, right?

New York Giants

Record in 2022: 9-7-1

Point differential in 2022: minus-6

2022 record in games decided by seven points or fewer: TK

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 8th toughest

The team that vanquished the Vikings in the postseason was also their closest comparable during the regular season. The Giants set the tone for their season in Week 1, when they played the Titans tough into the fourth quarter. They took over in the final 15 minutes. A long drive ended with a touchdown pass to get within one point, and when the Giants went for 2, Saquon Barkley managed to elude two tacklers in the backfield and get into the end zone to take the lead. The Titans managed to get in position for a 47-yard field goal, but Randy Bullock’s miss from 47 yards out handed New York a 21-20 victory.

That style became a habit for the Giants, who won four games they trailed after the third quarter. Only the Vikings and Chiefs won more. The New York defense seemed to snap to attention only when the situation mattered most. When the team had a lead in the fourth quarter, it was the league’s ninth-best defense by EPA (expected points added) per play; it ranked 29th otherwise.

The Giants were the league’s worst defense by EPA per play on first and second down, but they were second best by the same metric on third down. They had the fourth-worst defense outside the red zone by EPA per play and the second best once teams got in scoring range.

The offense also improved dramatically in the final stanza, jumping from 16th in EPA per play to fourth over the final 15 minutes of the game. Daniel Jones & Co. weren’t great on third down, but they were the seventh-best offense at converting once they got inside the red zone.

The key for the offense was not turning the ball over. The Giants turned the ball over just 16 times in 17 games, ranking second behind the Lions. Unsurprisingly, when they didn’t turn the ball over even one time, they went 6-2, including their playoff win over the Vikings. They were 4-6-1 when they turned the ball over at least once.

Protecting the football was an important leap forward for Jones, who struggled mightily with fumbles during his first two NFL seasons. Despite scrambling often and being sacked on 8.5% of his dropbacks, he fumbled just six times in 17 games. His interception rate also dropped for the third consecutive campaign, as he threw picks on just 1.1% of his passes, the league’s best mark.

Avoiding giveaways is a great way to win games, but is it sustainable? Not often, no. Prorating all the stats above for a 17-game season, let’s go back through 2002. Fifty-nine teams from 2002 to 2021 finished their season with no more than 16 giveaways. Those teams, unsurprisingly, were very successful: They won an average of 11.6 games.

The following year, just five of those 59 teams managed to sustain their turnover rate. The average team turned the ball over 7.2 more times the following campaign and dropped more than 10 spots in the takeaway rankings. The average team declined by an average of more than one win, although two teams managed to avoid that fate last season (the Eagles and Vikings).

The Giants were able to win nine games and advance to the postseason by claiming a series of narrow victories against many of the easier teams on their schedule. They won only one game by more than eight points, a 38-10 blowout win over the Colts where Indy turned to Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger. They were 2-7 against teams with a winning record, a group of opponents they’ll see more often in 2023: The FPI projects them to face the eighth-toughest schedule, while the FTN Football Almanac expects New York to face the fifth-toughest slate.

It’s tough to make a case that the Giants can repeat what they did in 2022. Are there reasons to believe they could improve their underlying performance? Absolutely. They were the third-youngest team in 2022 by snap-weighted age. They were cycling through replacement-level players at wide receiver, tight end and cornerback for stretches, and they’ve added Darren Waller and first-round pick Deonte Banks to the mix.

At the same time, we can’t assume everything that went right for the Giants in 2022 will occur again, either. One obvious place to start: the availability of Jones and Barkley, who were each healthy for the full season. (Both sat out a meaningless Week 18 game against the Eagles.) Neither had completed a full season in 2019, 2020 or 2021, with each missing an average of just over five games per season. If the Giants can keep their resurgent quarterback and running back on the field for a full season again, they’ve got a shot at beating the odds. Without either of them for any extended stretch of time, it’s tough to see the team staying above .500.

Philadelphia Eagles

Record in 2022: 14-3

Point differential in 2022: plus-133

2022 record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 6-1

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 12th toughest

The Giants and Vikings won’t cause anyone to bat an eye. The Eagles, though? A little more controversial. They looked like the league’s best team for most of last season, starting 13-1 before losing Jalen Hurts to an injury. They nearly beat the Cowboys with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, but Hurts gritted out a Week 18 win over the Giants before driving Philadelphia within three points of a Super Bowl win. With a quarterback like Hurts who is seemingly capable of leveling up each offseason, the Eagles should be one of the favorites for years to come.

There are still plenty of reasons to doubt that the Eagles will win 14 games in the regular season again, though. We’ll start with the same thing that has popped up for the Vikings and Giants: The Eagles rode their luck in close games. They went 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer, including a perfect mark in Hurts’ starts.

Were some of those games not as close as they seemed? Sure. The Packers kicking a field goal to get within seven points with 1:08 to go didn’t exactly threaten Philadelphia’s path to victory. At the same time, the Eagles were tied deep into the fourth quarter against the Cardinals before a late game-winning field goal and trailed the Colts by six points at the two-minute warning before a Hurts touchdown run. The 25-20 win against the Bears was a one-score contest deep into the fourth quarter. Those were legitimately close games against three of the league’s worst teams.

The Eagles saw lots of games against those teams. The FTN Football Almanac pegs them as playing the easiest schedule last season. FPI had them in 23rd, while my schedule model had them at No. 24. Philly played just three games against teams that won 10 or more games, and one of those was against the Vikings, and you know how the models feel about them. The Eagles managed to land games against each of the four worst teams by win-loss record: the Bears, Texans, Cardinals and Colts.

It would be a major surprise if their schedule was as easy in 2023. The FTN Football Almanac projects Philadelphia to face the fifth-toughest schedule. The Eagles play the first-placed teams in the NFC, swapping out the AFC South for the AFC East and the NFC North for the NFC West.

After years of struggling to keep their key players on the field, the Eagles also enjoyed a remarkably healthy season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Hurts missed two weeks at the end of the season and was limited in the Week 18 win, but the offense was present for the vast majority of the campaign. Their 11 starters on offense — Hurts, their five linemen, running back Miles Sanders, wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert — missed just 10 starts all season. The secondary battled injuries to C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Avonte Maddox, but the Eagles were the third-healthiest team in football by adjusted games lost. They were 12th in 2021, 30th in 2020 and 21st in 2019.

They also shed more talent this offseason than your typical 14-win team. With Hurts earning a massive new contract, the Eagles understandably made cutbacks at a few positions. Sanders and Isaac Seumalo are gone on the offensive side of the ball. Most of the damage comes on defense, however, where they lost their best defensive tackle (Javon Hargrave), both starting linebackers (T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White) and both starting safeties (Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps).

The replacements are either less expensive options or draftees. General manager Howie Roseman wasn’t naive to what was coming — the Eagles are prepared with highly touted young defenders Jalen Carter and Nakobe Dean to take over two of those roles — but it’s no guarantee that Carter will be as good as Hargrave or that Dean will play up to Edwards’ standard. Safety looms as a major weakness, where the Eagles will use Reed Blankenship and either former Steelers defensive back Terrell Edmunds or third-round pick Sydney Brown as the starters. The defense declined dramatically last season when Blankenship replaced Gardner-Johnson in the lineup.

Of course, barring serious injury to Hurts, the Eagles should still be very good. I’m excited to see whether the “Tush Push” and their ability to extend drives on fourth-and-short seemingly at will allows them to exceed expectations for a second consecutive campaign. (I’m also wondering whether they’ll be the only team to push the envelope as aggressively as they did with that play a year ago.) In the weaker conference, Philadelphia should still be a huge favorite to return to the postseason. I just think that trip will come with 10 to 12 wins instead of 14.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record in 2022: 9-8

Point differential in 2022: minus-38

2022 record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 6-5

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 11th easiest

I’ll admit it: I thought last year’s column had the Steelers dead to rights. Unimpressed by their 9-7-1 record while being outscored by 55 points in 2021, I suggested that 2022 would be a transitional season with rookie Kenny Pickett taking over as quarterback. I was concerned the Steelers couldn’t get any more out of their big three on defense, and when T.J. Watt went down in the opener with a torn pectoral muscle, those concerns felt justified. At their bye, they were 2-6. It felt like a lost season.

Then the universe remembered who stands on the sideline for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin hadn’t posted a losing record in 15 seasons as a head coach, and he wasn’t about to start now. They split their first two games after the bye and then got white-hot afterward, winning six of their final seven games. They still came up a half-win short of their total from 2021, but they came as close as possible to defying the numbers.

How did Pittsburgh turn things around? It got Watt back, which helped immensely. Its schedule got easier, as six of its seven wins during the second half came against teams with losing records. The only exception was a Week 17 victory over the rival Ravens, who were starting Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the injured Lamar Jackson.

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The biggest factor, though, was something that holds concern for the Steelers and another team that isn’t on this list. Before the bye, they turned the ball over 14 times in eight games. After the bye? Pickett & Co. yielded five giveaways in nine games, three of which came in a Week 14 loss to the Ravens. They turned the ball over twice across their other eight games in the second half, and unsurprisingly, they won seven of those eight.

It’s impossible to count on any team to turn the ball over as infrequently as the Steelers did during that stretch over a full season, but there’s something to break down here. I wanted to test this improvement with teams from the past to see if those that improved their giveaway rate so dramatically from one half to the next kept their turnover rate relatively low the following season. There aren’t many comps, however.

The few teams that posted similarly drastic improvements in giveaways from one half to the next either were posting astronomical totals in the first half before regressing to league-average in the second half, changed quarterbacks after the season or had veteran quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford or Ben Roethlisberger. Pickett is a rookie who held the ball before his pass attempts longer than all but three other quarterbacks and posted a below-average sack rate. He had a 4.8% interception rate over his first five starts and an 0.4% rate afterward. Morphing from PJ Walker into peak Aaron Rodgers is a nifty improvement, but I don’t see how we can’t expect Pittsburgh to turn the ball over more often this season.

What makes this so interesting is the Steelers aren’t the only team that rode the turnover roller coaster in the second half to a turnaround. The Lions started 1-6 and turned the ball over 11 times across their first seven games. Then, suddenly, they morphed into something different. Jared Goff & Co. turned the ball over just four times in the ensuing 10 games, winning eight of those 10. Like the Steelers, they committed two of those turnovers in a single loss, to the Bills on Thanksgiving. The Lions just decided overnight to stop turning over the football, which immediately spurred a winning streak.

To be fair, the offense improved aside from strictly protecting the ball. If we eliminate the drives that ended in turnovers altogether, the Steelers jumped from 31st in points per possession before the bye to 11th afterward. Najee Harris hasn’t been an efficient back, but Jaylen Warren showed it was possible to look impressive behind a middling offensive line. That line should be better in 2023, with Isaac Seumalo joining from the Eagles and rookie first-rounder Broderick Jones likely to take over at left tackle, although he has looked uneven during the preseason.

I’m more concerned about the defense on paper, which is strange for a Steelers team under Tomlin. Cornerback is suddenly a problem, as Cameron Sutton and Arthur Maulet left in free agency and were replaced by the ex-Vikings duo of Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan. I’m not sure about their fit in a scheme that played man at the sixth-highest rate last season, and it’s a lot to ask of rookie second-rounder Joey Porter Jr. to be ready for a big role in Week 1. The last time the Steelers had a rookie cornerback start at least 12 games in a season was 1987. Even given the presence of Minkah Fitzpatrick, they probably won’t lead the league in interception rate again.

Watt should play something closer to a full season, which will help a sack and pressure rate that folded in his absence. Is the rest of the team around him likely to be healthier? Probably not, given that Pittsburgh had the league’s healthiest roster by adjusted games lost. You would probably rather lose two or three lesser starters than be without the star edge rusher for any length of time, but the Steelers don’t have the sort of depth they’ve had in years past.

There’s a definite tier gap in confidence between the first three teams, and the Steelers are in fourth for me. There are definite paths to them winning 10 games, especially if Pickett takes a second-year leap. If the defense loses one of the big three, the team struggles to stay as healthy as it did and/or the offense stops protecting the ball, I’m not sure we can count on the Steelers to keep Tomlin’s streak going into season 17.

If the Eagles go 13-4, down from 14-3, can Barnwell really claim victory?  That’s a pretty high standard

RANKING THE SCHEDULES – BY OPPOSING QBs

If it’s a QB-driven league, Mike Sando of The Athletic tells us who has the toughest road ahead – and with Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert and Rodgers all in the AFC, you have to go to #9 to find an NFC team:

The Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos each have six 2023 games against opponents with Tier 1 quarterbacks.

The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints have zero games against top-tier QBs.

These and other extreme differences come into focus below in my annual look at all 32 teams’ schedules of opposing quarterbacks.

Plugging 2023 Quarterback Tiers results into the 2023 NFL schedule allows for a team-by-team look into dynamics. I’ve gone deeper this year than in the past, parsing out every team’s opposing quarterback schedule strength by various categories: division opponents, intra- and inter-conference opponents and more, including each team’s 17th opponent.

The 50 NFL execs and coaches who voted in QB Tiers considered only veteran starters, so I slotted rookies Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson into the top of Tier 4, ahead of Arizona’s Colt McCoy, who will start as long as Kyler Murray remains sidelined by an ACL rehab.

We begin with the Dolphins, who play the toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks, and finish with the Saints, who play the easiest QB schedule. Each team’s breakdown expands by touch or click, allowing for detailed study.

1  Miami Dolphins                       2.24 Avg QB Tier              AFC EAST

2  New England Patriots             2.35 Avg QB Tier              AFC EAST

3 Kansas City Chiefs                  2.29 Avg QB Tier              AFC WEST

4  Buffalo Bills                            2.35 Avg QB Tier              AFC EAST

5 Los Angeles Chargers            2.41 Avg QB Tier              AFC WEST

6  Las Vegas Raiders                 2.41 Avg QB Tier              AFC WEST

7 Denver Broncos                      2.35 Avg QB Tier              AFC WEST

8 New York Jets                        2.53 Avg QB Tier               AFC EAST

9 Washington Commanders      2.65 Avg QB Tier              NFC EAST

10 Cincinnati Bengals                2.71 Avg QB Tier             AFC NORTH

11 Cleveland Browns                 2.76 Avg QB Tier            AFC NORTH

12 Baltimore Ravens                 2.76 Avg QB Tier            AFC NORTH

13 Pittsburgh Steelers              2.71 Avg QB Tier            AFC NORTH

14 Dallas Cowboys                   2.76 Avg QB Tier            NFC EAST

15 New York Giants                   2.76 Avg QB Tier         NFC EAST

16 Philadelphia Eagles               2.71 Avg QB Tier         NFC EAST

17 San Francisco 49ers            2.71 Avg QB Tier          NFC WEST

18 Green Bay Packers             2.82 Avg QB Tier           NFC NORTH

19 Arizona Cardinals                2.88 Avg QB Tier          NFC WEST

20 Minnesota Vikings               2.94 Avg QB Tier          NFC NORTH

21 Detroit Lions                        2.82 Avg QB Tier          NFC NORTH

22 Seattle Seahawks                2.94  Avg QB Tier       NFC WEST

23 Indianapolis Colts                2.94 Avg QB Tier        AFC SOUTH

24 Houston Texans                  2.94 Avg QB Tier         AFC SOUTH

25 Tennessee Titans               3.00 Avg QB Tier         AFC SOUTH

26 Jacksonville Jaguars           3.06 Avg QB Tier         AFC SOUTH

27 Chicago Bears                     3.00 Avg QB Tier               NFC NORTH

28 Los Angeles Rams               3.12 Avg QB Tier              NFC WEST

29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers       3.18 Avg QB Tier              NFC SOUTH

30 Carolina Panthers                 3.24 Avg QB Tier              NFC SOUTH

31 Atlanta Falcons                    3.29 Avg QB Tier              NFC SOUTH

32 New Orleans Saints             3.35 Avg QB Tier              NFC SOUTH

We’re not sure why his rankings don’t go exactly by the AVG QB TIER number.