| INDIANAPOLISFrank Schwab of YahooSports.com has the Colts at #21 in his preseason power rankings: The Indianapolis Colts finishing 8-9 last season wasn’t a big surprise, based on preseason expectations. How the Colts got there was beyond strange. Historic, even. The Colts were 8-2 and led the AFC South by 2.5 games. Their odds to make the playoffs reached 98.2% according to DVOA. The offense’s efficiency numbers, behind great starts from quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor, had rarely been seen before. They started getting buzz as a potential Super Bowl dark horse. When they traded two first-round picks to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner, it was understandable because they looked like a contender. Even as the Colts were off to a blazing hot start, they said the right things. “As a team, you can’t get satisfied,” tight end Mo Alie-Cox said, via the team’s site. “We know things like this league can change in a heartbeat.” That turned out to be beyond prophetic. The Colts started losing close games. Jones tried playing through a fractured fibula, then tore an Achilles and Indianapolis’ season really spun out of control. Philip Rivers coming back at age 44 after four seasons in retirement was a great story but it didn’t result in any wins. The Colts, who were 7-1 at one point, finished on an 0-7 streak. They were eliminated from the playoff race before they even kicked off in Week 18. Indianapolis was the sixth team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to miss the playoffs after starting 8-2, according to Josh Dubow of the Associated Press. They were the first team ever to start 8-2 or better and finish under .500, which wasn’t even possible before the 17-game schedule, but still sums up how complete the collapse was. Any losing streak like that will sting for a while, but in Indianapolis’ case it was even rougher because they looked so good early in the season. It wasn’t a fluky run. Through seven games the offense was scoring more points per drive than any other team this century, including the 2007 Patriots, according to Anthony Dabbundo of The Ringer. They were blowing out teams. The Colts’ site pointed out that there were only four teams with four or more wins by 21 or more points last season: the 14-3 Seahawks, 13-4 Jaguars, 12-5 Rams … and the 8-9 Colts. The Colts were the first team since the 2019 Cowboys to miss the playoffs with four wins by at least 21 points, the team’s site said. Despite a seven-game losing streak they finished with a +54 point differential, which was better than five playoff teams (Steelers, Chargers, Bears, Packers, Panthers) and the same as the Eagles. The Colts were arguably the NFL’s best team in the first half of the season. The magic ride crashed hard. That first half gives the Colts hope for this season, but even that is complicated. Jones is confident he’ll be ready for Week 1 after his Achilles injury, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be the same player. It’s a tough injury. The Colts hedged with Jones’ contract when he was a free agent this offseason. He signed for $88 million over two years, which is a lot of money but the length of the deal accounts for some concern. There also has to be some worry that Jones, who had been cut by a bad Giants franchise in November of 2024, just caught a heater for a half of a season. Or that a little bit of regression will be compounded by whatever he’ll lose physically from the Achilles injury. It’s hard to figure out what’s next for the Colts. It’s possible that Jones is healthy and the offense resumes its startling pace from the first half of last season. Receiver Alec Pierce is back, after signing a huge $114 million deal to stay as a free agent, though the team traded Michael Pittman Jr. to shed salary. Even Pierce is a bit in flux due to ankle surgery he had in March that could put his start of the regular season in some doubt. The defense wasn’t great last season but added some veterans up front and was good enough when the team won eight of its first 10 games. It will also benefit from having Gardner for a full season. Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen hasn’t made the playoffs in any of his three seasons, but the Colts have been close all three times. They’ve finished either 9-8 or 8-9 in each of the past three seasons. Another season coming up short at the end probably wouldn’t be good for Steichen or general manager Chris Ballard, even if it doesn’t include an extreme downfall like last season. And after last season’s wild split between the first half of the season and the second, anything seems possible. Offseason gradeThe Colts weren’t letting Alec Pierce walk in free agency. A four-year, $114 million deal with $84 million guaranteed was stunning, but if the Colts didn’t pay it another team probably would have. It probably cost the team Michael Pittman Jr., who was traded to the Steelers. All the Colts got back was a late-round pick swap, but they were able to shed Pittman’s salary. The Colts also felt compelled to bring back Daniel Jones after his fantastic half season before an Achilles injury, and a two-year, $88 million deal made sense for both sides. The Colts clearly wanted to upgrade the defensive front seven in free agency. They signed linemen Michael Clemons, Arden Key, Derrick Nnadi and Jerry Tillery as well as linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither, though edge defender Kwity Paye signed with Las Vegas. Offensive tackle Braden Smith also left, to Houston. The draft didn’t include a first-round pick due to the Sauce Gardner trade, but the defense got more help with second-round pick C.J. Allen at linebacker and safety A.J. Haulcy in the third. Being able to retain Pierce and Jones was solid, albeit expensive, but it’s hard to say the roster looks significantly upgraded. Grade: C Quarterback reportThe Colts took a huge swing on Anthony Richardson Sr. with the fourth pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, and it has gone as poorly as possible. Richardson has had extreme accuracy issues and injury woes through his 15 career starts, barely played last season after he failed to beat out Daniel Jones and then suffered a weird orbital bone fracture, and this offseason he requested a trade. The Colts couldn’t find a partner through the spring to make it happen. Regardless of what happens with Richardson, backup quarterback is a concern with Jones coming off a major injury. Richardson has not shown he’s a reliable option, and Riley Leonard is a sixth-round pick who got one start before the Colts decided 44-year-old Philip Rivers off his couch was a better idea. If Jones returns from injury and stays healthy all season, the Colts should expect at least competent quarterback play. And, like last season, if Jones misses time it could get ugly. Odds breakdownFrom Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “It was a tale of two seasons for the Colts — a team that started 8-2 and lost seven straight to end the season on the heels of starting QB Daniel Jones tearing his Achilles. Jones is supposedly coming back Week 1, but which Colts team will we see this year? Indianapolis has a win total of 7.5 and is an underdog (+140) to make the playoffs. Even without a difficult schedule, the Colts are only favored in six games. And without a first-round pick due to the Sauce Gardner trade, Indy wasn’t able to upgrade talent in other areas this offseason. With too many other solid teams in the AFC, I’d bet on the Colts to miss the postseason at -165 odds.” Yahoo’s fantasy takeFrom Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Bears TE Colston Loveland is getting a ton of fantasy buzz this summer and it’s justified. But if you can’t get Loveland at his expectant price, maybe you can pivot to Tyler Warren. Indy’s rookie ranked third in targets, sixth in receptions and fifth in yards among tight ends last year, and that was despite QB Daniel Jones missing the final four games. Warren’s case isn’t that different from Loveland’s, but he’s going a full round later in early Yahoo drafts.” Stat to rememberWhile Daniel Jones’ injuries were the story of the Colts’ change in fortunes last season, Jonathan Taylor’s slump also coincided with the team’s drop. Taylor was obviously affected by the Colts’ quarterback woes, but he went from an MVP candidate to barely replacement level numbers: First 10 games: 1,139 rushing yards, 15 rush TDs, 6 yards per attempt, 260 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs Final seven games: 446 rushing yards, 3 rush TDs, 3.3 yards per attempt, 118 receiving yards, 0 receiving TDs While there were reasons for the dip that were out of Taylor’s control, that’s a startling fall across the board. He had five 100-yard games in the first 10 games, and didn’t have more than 87 rushing yards in a game after that. Taylor has played at an All-Pro level before and is just 27 years old, so he should be able to bounce all the way back. But we’ll have to watch it closely, because the team’s success is closely related to how well Taylor is doing on the ground. Burning question: Will Colts see a return on the Sauce Gardner trade?The Sauce Gardner trade didn’t work out right away for the Colts. They fell apart late in the season and missed the playoffs while Gardner played only four games (he was limited to just two snaps in one of those games) due to a calf injury. But the Colts weren’t getting him as a short-term rental. They traded two first-round picks to the Jets for Gardner because the star cornerback will be just 26 years old this season and has multiple prime seasons ahead. Gardner is unquestionably talented, and assuming he stays healthy he’ll impact the Colts defense. Coordinator Lou Anarumo can dial up more aggressive pressures knowing Gardner can do his job against whichever receiver he is matched up against. It could turn out that the Colts lose the trade because it was so expensive — the Jets’ first pick from the Colts was tight end Kenyon Sadiq, with another to come in 2027 — but the Colts will benefit from having one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks for this season and a few others to come. Best-case scenarioIt’s not crazy to say the Colts can be a Super Bowl contender, because that’s what they were at the beginning of November last year. It’s hard to believe the Colts can recapture the offensive hot streak from last season, when they were comparable to teams like the 2007 Patriots, but Daniel Jones was clearly clicking with Shane Steichen’s scheme. Jonathan Taylor, Alec Pierce and second-year tight end Tyler Warren provide a nice nucleus around Jones. And that 8-2 start last season happened mostly without cornerback Sauce Gardner, an elite defender who will be just 26 years old this season. It’s fine to be overly optimistic about the Colts, predict a division title and possibly a playoff run, because they were at that level less than a year ago. Nightmare scenarioIt’s easy to blame the Colts’ fade on Daniel Jones’ Achilles injury. However, they were fading before that. The Colts had lost three of their previous four games, with the only win coming in overtime against the mediocre Atlanta Falcons, and trailed 14-7 in the first quarter at Jacksonville when Jones suffered a season-ending injury. In Jones’ first eight games he had a 109.5 passer rating, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions with an adjusted yards per attempt of 9. In his final five games it was an 84.2 rating, six touchdowns with five interceptions and the adjusted yards per attempt was 6.6. He was playing through a fractured fibula and maybe it’s unfair to count the slump against him due to that. But Jones had an 84.3 passer rating over six Giants seasons. It’s hard to believe that the quarterback we saw for two months is his actual level going forward, especially if that Achilles injury takes some of his mobility away. And it’s also hard to buy that’s the Colts’ new level. The Colts being mediocre again, with their first-round pick in a strong 2027 NFL Draft already sent off to the Jets in the Sauce Gardner trade, would be a big disappointment after the excitement from the first half of last season. And it would bring an offseason of speculation about Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard. The crystal ball saysThis ranking could look silly early this season. The Colts weren’t just getting lucky and winning close games against bad teams; they looked great. And while that run might be impossible to recreate this season, it wasn’t an illusion either. But overall, there are too many questions to predict a double-digit win season, starting with how Daniel Jones looks coming off a serious injury. Overall, it just seems like a slightly below average Colts team, and the division is getting better around them. Let’s predict a Colts record below .500, which would mean a fourth straight season of Shane Steichen missing the playoffs and many tough offseason decisions in Indianapolis. |
| BREAKOUT CANDIDATES FOR EACH TEAMFrom Ben Solak of ESPN.com: Picking breakout candidates is actually easier than you’d think. Every NFL team has, at all times, four to five of them. Be it a fine veteran who steps up his game in the absence of an injured star (Wan’Dale Robinson) or an offseason departure (Jaxon Smith-Njigba). Be it a middle-round pick who quietly developed in weekly practices and waited for his opportunity (Parker Washington, Tanor Bortolini). Be it a first-round pick for whom the lightbulb finally came on (DJ Turner II, Dallas Turner, yes those are two different people). Or be it a zip code change (Jaylinn Hawkins, Javonte Williams). As such, it’s actually harder than you’d think to pick just one breakout player for each team. In putting together a list of 32 — one from each team — I tried to get a mix of the prototypes. There are some developmental prospects who are on the cusp of putting the pieces together. There are some middle-round picks in line for bigger roles. There are early draft picks whom nobody but me still believes in. There’s even Terry McLaurin — because I have to throw a curveball or two. The one stipulation I did follow: no rookies allowed. You can’t break out if you haven’t played a game yet. AFC EAST Buffalo BillsT.J. Sanders, DTI did not particularly like the Sanders pick for Sean McDermott’s defense in the 2025 draft. Sanders is an undersized defensive tackle at 297 pounds with a long and upright build. He’s at his best slanting, stunting and occasionally lining up as a big defensive end in subpackages. In fact, he did just that when he returned from a knee injury to discover a Bills team with a ton of injury issues on the edge. Luckily, that makes Sanders a much more natural fit in new coordinator Jim Leonhard’s defense, which uses three-down fronts and needs big defensive ends to draw multiple players in pass protection while blitzes land from the other side of the line. Sanders is unlikely to become a high-impact player like, say, John Franklin-Myers overnight, but he’s a good candidate to evolve into a dirty work champion in Buffalo’s reimagined defense. Miami DolphinsPatrick Paul, OTThe league is as loaded with ascendent young offensive tackles as I can remember, and Paul is at the forefront of that group. Long and rangy, he was excellent on the hoof in Mike McDaniel’s diverse running scheme. And Paul should once again excel in new coordinator Bobby Slowik’s preferred wide zone approach. Paul replaced the retiring Terron Armstead last season on the blind side — those are hard shoes to fill, and at times Paul’s inexperience showed in pass protection against crafty rushers. But his blend of power, length and speed are exactly what makes for high-level franchise left tackles. Paul will play beside first-round pick Kadyn Proctor, as the longtime Alabama tackle makes the kick inside to left guard. With center Aaron Brewer signed to a long-term extension, the Dolphins will quietly have the entire left side of its line secured for years to come if Proctor hits. And with Austin Jackson and Jonah Savaiinaea on the right side, Miami’s trenches could become a strength even in this rebuilding season. New England PatriotsJared Wilson, CWilson already did one of the harder things a rookie can do: win a starting job, out of position, despite not being a first-round pick. The third-rounder was a college center who kicked over to left guard and kept his head above water. But his best NFL position was always center, and the job is now his after the Garrett Bradbury trade this offseason. Wilson has the nice combination of quickness, balance and play speed that modern centers need to become featured parts of the running game. Facing fewer one-on-one situations against power rushers than last season will benefit him greatly. So long as he can handle the pre-snap side of the job, he should be an above-average starting center by this time next year. New York JetsT’Vondre Sweat, DTThe Jets and Titans executed a rare player-for-player (i.e., no picks) swap when they exchanged Sweat for edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II. This trade was largely understood from the Titans’ perspective — they had a huge need at edge rusher, and Johnson is reuniting with Robert Saleh, who drafted him in New York. But I really like the other side of this deal. Sweat is a preposterously talented athlete, with considerable explosiveness at 366 pounds. His effort wanes at times, but Aaron Glenn’s greatest strength as a coach is how well he motivates. A fire lit under Sweat could produce one of the more dynamic nose tackles in the league. The flashes have been there for Sweat through two seasons as a Titan, and defensive tackle breakouts tend to come in Year 3 or 4. He’s one to watch. AFC NORTH Baltimore RavensKeyon Martin, CBMartin, a 2025 undrafted free agent, is perhaps the deepest cut of this entire list. He saw most of his snaps last season as a dime corner and often blitzed, as his first-step explosiveness is a cardinal trait. Martin is undersized for an NFL corner (5-foot-9, 170 pounds), but new coach Jesse Minter was comfortable playing smaller corners during his time as the Chargers’ defensive coordinator. Quick eyes and even quicker feet in zone coverage are Minter’s preferred traits, and Martin has those. At his size, Martin likely can’t play anything but the slot. The Ravens do love three-safety sets with Kyle Hamilton in the nickel, but when they want a quicker cover man, Martin has a chance to supplant Chidobe Awuzie as the third corner on the field, keeping Marlon Humphrey on the outside. Cincinnati BengalsErick All Jr., TEAll, the Bengals’ fourth-round pick in 2024, didn’t play a snap in 2025. After just 231 snaps as a rookie, he tore his right ACL in Week 9 and spent the entire 2025 season rehabbing (he had torn the same ACL in college, and complications from that surgery lengthened his recovery time). For many players, such a prolonged unavailability would jeopardize their snaps. But All is so beloved by the Bengals’ staff — said coach Zac Taylor: “With the word physical in the dictionary is a picture of Erick All, trying to put his face through somebody’s soul.” — that he remains a candidate to start. All outsnapped incumbent Mike Gesicki in five of the nine games he played as a rookie and brings a much-needed blocking dimension to Cincinnati’s rushing attack. If he’s healthy, I expect him to lead the TE room in snaps and spring some big plays. Cleveland BrownsTyson Campbell, CBCan I call a player who once signed a four-year, $76.5 million deal a “breakout candidate”? Campbell looked like a Jacksonville cornerstone after his big extension in the 2024 offseason. But an early-season hamstring injury dramatically impacted his 2024 play, and during the 2025 season, the Jaguars flipped Campbell to Cleveland to clear salary — and snaps — for younger, emergent corners such as Montaric Brown, Jarrian Jones and Travis Hunter. Campbell looked more at home in Cleveland, where he was kept closer to the line of scrimmage and given a simpler menu of coverages. He can still get picked on at times, especially when isolated on vertical routes. But as a No. 2 to Denzel Ward, he has a high ceiling given the play we’ve seen from him in the past. For the Browns’ defense to retain its elite status without Myles Garrett, it needs this cornerback duo to be among the league’s best. Pittsburgh SteelersZach Frazier, CFilm heads love Frazier, who might simply be the best offensive lineman still on a rookie contract. NFL Next Gen Stats had Frazier with a 2.7% QB pressure rate surrendered last season — the single best mark of any offensive lineman with at least 300 snaps. Centers certainly get more double-team help than tackles, but Frazier was fifth in one-on-one rate behind some predictable stars such as Tyler Linderbaum and Aaron Brewer. The Steelers trust him on islands the way teams with highly paid star centers do. Frazier’s run blocking is just as impressive as his pass blocking. With the heavy anchor and core strength of a dominant supersized guard, as well as the quick feet and sharp angles of an undersized center, Frazier unlocks the full menu of run concepts for Pittsburgh — per ESPN’s numbers, the Steelers ran the common run concepts (outside zone, inside zone, duo, power, etc.) at league-average rates. His experience snapping the ball to Aaron Rodgers is certainly helping the mental side of his game as well. Of all the players on this list, Frazier would be my bet to eventually become the best player at his position in the NFL. AFC SOUTH Houston TexansCalen Bullock, SBullock is fresh off a Pro Bowl appearance after just two seasons in the league, so he is perhaps already too prolific to be called a “breakout candidate.” But how many NFL fans would list him when naming the stars of the Texans’ defense. Will Anderson Jr., Derek Stingley Jr., Danielle Hunter … Bullock? Well, I’m ready to put him up there. Bullock has nine interceptions in two seasons thanks to an unreal combination of range, instincts and ball skills. A true center-fielding safety — one of a few remaining of that dying breed — Bullock is admirably physical and willing in run support. Reed Blankenship, his new running mate, should allow Bullock to spend a little more time playing in the box or to half of the field, which will increase his opportunities for ball production and (hopefully) national recognition accordingly. Indianapolis ColtsJosh Downs, WRI love Downs. As the league moves to bigger players who can block, few teams still employ the classic slot receiver. But the Colts do, as 76% of Downs’ targets came from the slot last season (led the league). Now, with Michael Pittman Jr. gone to Pittsburgh, Downs will no longer be a starter solely in three-receiver sets — he should also see plenty of snaps in two-receiver looks alongside the recently extended Alec Pierce. I’m not here to predict a full Jaxon Smith-Njigba explosion from Downs as he works his way into more of a hybrid role; Downs is much shorter and lighter than JSN. But I do think Downs shares Smith-Njigba’s fluidity as a route runner, which should open him up for deeper targets as coach Shane Steichen manufactures free releases for him off the line. Downs is 111th in air yards per target among 121 high-volume wide receivers since he entered the league in 2023. If Steichen just gets him up to an average depth, Downs would be in line for a breakout year in production. Jacksonville JaguarsRuke Orhorhoro, DTIt’s pretty easy to explain why Orhorhoro had such a tough tenure in Atlanta. Overdrafted in 2024 and then injured during his rookie training camp, Orhorhoro came out of the gates slow: 11 combined tackles in eight games played in Year 1. He was asked to play in two different defenses in two seasons, and his fit next to Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata was never ideal in either year. It was a mess in Atlanta, and he was worthy of a fresh start in Jacksonville. Orhorhoro hasn’t had enough splash plays yet to even call him an exciting developmental player. But the new opportunity in Jacksonville comes with a thin depth chart. Nose tackle DaVon Hamilton and aging veteran Arik Armstead are the only players clearly above Orhorhoro on the depth chart in what figures to be a rotation anyway. If he is freed up to play a penetrating, disrupting style, he should become an important player with the Jags. Tennessee TitansGunnar Helm, TEBig Gunnar Helm guy here. He has the tools of an NFL starter — length, size, speed, ball skills above the rim/away from his frame and toughness through contact. If he’s an A-plus in any one trait, it’s his ability to track and adjust to the football. He makes the sort of tough downfield catches a tight end needs to make in order to become an explosive-play receiver. Helm won’t lead the Titans in receptions given their offseason investments in Wan’Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate. But he is a QB-friendly third option in the passing game who can move the needle as a blocker if his technique improves to match the physical toolkit. The lightbulb was starting to go on last season, and as more eyes turn to Tennessee this season, I think he’ll have national recognition by this time next year. AFC WEST Denver BroncosEyioma Uwazurike, DLVeteran defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers was the Broncos’ lone significant departure from the loaded roster that was perhaps one QB injury away from a Super Bowl berth. Franklin-Myers is such a nifty player, with the ability to line up as both a big end and an undersized 3-technique without any apparent weakness. The Broncos have a deep room of options to replace his snaps in a piecemeal fashion but no one-to-one replacement. Of the rotational players who impressed last season, the first one I’d be trying to get more snaps to is Uwazurike. He had a resurgent 2025 season after a 2023 season-long suspension for gambling threw a massive halt in his developmental arc. More of a true defensive tackle than Franklin-Myers, Uwazurike has a mean bullrush and a hot, hot motor that helps him make cleanup plays in muddy pockets. He can do a lot of the dirty work that made Franklin-Myers such a valuable part of the Broncos’ rotation. Kansas City ChiefsNohl Williams, CBThis is one of my guys. A smart press corner with a nose for the football at Cal, Williams seemed like an obvious middle-round Steve Spagnuolo corner up to and including the moment the Chiefs drafted him in the third round. Behind Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, Williams could never be more than third in the rotation. With both gone, he’ll be fighting with Kristian Fulton for a starting job opposite 2026 first-rounder Mansoor Delane. And Williams is on the inside track. He took his rookie lumps last season, but he had plenty of splashy moments against legitimate NFL receivers. I’d go so far as to say Williams’ work as a rookie was part of the reason the Chiefs felt so comfortable letting McDuffie and Watson out of the building. He’s the next man up. Las Vegas RaidersAshton Jeanty, RBPredicting a Jeanty breakout is quite the layup. He might not immediately achieve the lofty expectations that come with being the No. 6 pick, but we can say with some confidence that his opportunity for production is about to become much easier. Jeanty averaged 1.26 yards before contact per rush behind the Raiders’ line last season, and of 737 running back seasons since 2010, that number was 734th. Forget the new scheme or the Tyler Linderbaum signing — pure regression to the mean suggests Jeanty will have an easier go in 2026. Jeanty had 2.4 yards after contact per rush last season, eighth among all backs. He was a great tackle-breaker at Boise State, and he looks like he might be one in the pros, too. With a more balanced offensive approach, he should see easier boxes as well. A good season is ahead. Los Angeles ChargersJamaree Caldwell, DTAs a third-round rookie, Caldwell almost led the Chargers in snaps along the interior. He had 525 to Teair Tart’s 526. Caldwell is a particularly exciting part of a deep defensive tackle rotation because he is capable of playing both over the center and over the guard, which gives him good synergy with Tart, who is similarly versatile. The Chargers added Dalvin Tomlinson, a quintessential run-stuffing nose tackle, in free agency. It’s easy to infer they’ll give Caldwell a few more pass-rush opportunities besides Tomlinson, and he has the requisite quickness and flexibility to be a quick penetration player who creates cleanup opportunities for other rushers. NFC EAST Dallas CowboysDeMarvion Overshown, LBThis is less of a breakout and more of a re-breakout. Overshown lost his 2023 rookie year to a torn ACL in the preseason. When he returned to action in Week 1 of 2024, he was so ridiculously fast on an otherwise slow Cowboys defense that it was impossible not to notice him. Then came a torn ACL, MCL and PCL 13 weeks later, which ended his 2024 campaign early and followed him all the way into 2025. Overshown did not look like himself after returning last season in Week 11 — he had only one TFL in six games after posting eight in 13 games during the 2024 season. He cleared 19 mph in top speed seven separate times in the 2024 season, per NFL Next Gen Stats; he never cleared it in 2025. As he gets further away from the injury, he’ll hopefully recover the top speed that allowed him to play sideline to sideline and trigger quickly on those behind-the-line opportunities. New York GiantsDarius Alexander, DTThe departure of Dexter Lawrence II creates quite the black hole in the Giants’ defensive tackle rotation — one far too big for DJ Reader to fill himself. Alexander started his college career on the offensive line, so he was always projected for more 2026 impact than 2025. Still, he had three sacks and three tackles for loss over the last six games of his rookie season. It’s important to say that Alexander is not a Lawrence replacement at all. Lawrence is a squatty nose tackle with run-stopping prowess; Alexander is long and linear and wants to play upfield. Reader and Shelby Harris will do more of the yeoman’s work on early downs, but Alexander is an important player in pass-rush situations. For as deep and dangerous as the Giants’ room of edge rushers is, quarterbacks will far too easily climb the pocket without an interior presence. It actually helps Alexander that he’s so stylistically different from Lawrence, as he should avoid unfair one-to-one comparisons this season. Philadelphia EaglesNolan Smith Jr., EdgeThe typical breakout name at pass rusher in Philadelphia is Jalyx Hunt, and understandably so. Hunt stayed healthy throughout 2025 and has shown a penchant for timely playmaking over his two years in the pros. But on a snap-by-snap basis, Smith is right there with Hunt. He posted a 16.3% pressure rate to Hunt’s 17.3%, and his 4.7% quick pressure rate edged out Hunt’s 4.3%. Smith spent last offseason rehabbing from a torn triceps and missed time in the regular season for the same injury, so it’s fair to wonder whether he was ever at full strength in 2025. Smith is a preposterously powerful run defender for his 6-foot-2, 238-pound size, which gives him more viability on early downs than Hunt. Both are good breakout candidates, and it’s likely they contribute equally opposite new starter Jonathan Greenard. But I still weigh Smith’s rare physical traits a little heavier than Hunt’s toolbox. Washington CommandersTerry McLaurin, WRStick with me on this one. McLaurin, who will turn 31 this September, is the oldest player on this list. He had five consecutive seasons of 1,000 receiving yards from 2020 to 2024. He is very clearly good, and everyone knows this. So how can McLaurin break out? By posting a career year. His first season with over 100 receptions. It’s safely assumed, given his steady production, that McLaurin is an average No. 1 receiver. I think he can be much better than that. McLaurin had a down year in 2025 thanks to a prolonged contract battle in camp, a quad injury and general offensive regression. Now, in 2026, he gets to play in a David Blough offense that should move him around the formation much more than Kliff Kingsbury’s system ever did. McLaurin was seventh in yards per route last season (2.56) but 18th in targets per route run. Only 16.8% of his yards came after the catch — 100th in the NFL! If he starts getting the Amon-Ra St. Brown treatment with motions, slot alignments and funneled targets on third downs or in the red zone, he could post career-best marks in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. NFC NORTH Chicago BearsLuther Burden III, WRIf you’re a fantasy football manager, you’re likely deeply versed in the Burden stats. He has been one of the hottest names in early drafts. Burden was only a part-time player as a rookie and committed plenty of mental errors, but he was highly productive on a per-route basis. His 2.92 yards per route run ties A.J. Brown for the best rookie number of the past 15 years. Burden was largely a screen-and-shot player to start the 2025 season, but he started to get more opportunities on crossers and underneath routes as coach Ben Johnson grew to trust him with the ball in his hands. With DJ Moore gone and Rome Odunze working back from a foot injury, the door is wide open for Burden to grab more targets — targets designed especially for him as a terrifying yards-after-catch threat. The sky is the limit here. Detroit LionsRoger McCreary, CBTons of cornerback snaps were already up for grabs in Detroit before Terrion Arnold was cut following his arrest in Florida on felony charges of armed robbery and kidnapping. Now, starting jobs are available in both the slot and on the outside. The contenders for the jobs: Rock Ya-Sin, Keith Abney II, Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and McCreary. McCreary was a rookie starter — and a productive one at that — for the Titans in 2022. He can play inside and out, though his lack of length makes him better suited for slot work (and will likely always limit his on-ball production). Still, he’s smart in zone coverage, physical enough to survive against the run and plenty sticky when asked to play man-to-man. Much of his game is similar to that of Amik Robertson, who thrived in Detroit before signing a solid deal in Washington this past offseason. I’m buying a McCreary bounceback. Green Bay PackersAnthony Belton, GI never liked the idea of Belton as the developmental tackle — I just didn’t see enough foot speed there to survive against top-tier edge rushers. But now that the Packers have finished experimenting with Belton as a swing tackle and committed to playing him at right guard, I see a rosy future. Sure, Belton’s play was largely up and down when he was in the lineup at guard as a rookie, but that was expected because he was a college left tackle and didn’t really practice on the interior until the regular season. I’m willing to wash most of that down the drain. Belton has the size, flexibility and power to be a defining force in the running game — something the Packers desperately need, as they typically run the ball from shotgun and need big-time vertical displacement. Aaron Banks, who was a free agent disappointment in Year 1, was supposed to be that linchpin player. With a full offseason of prep, I believe it can be Belton instead. Minnesota VikingsJames Pierre, CBThe Vikings like to rotate cornerbacks on cheap contracts, as coordinator Brian Flores’ zone-heavy and blitz-happy approach requires fewer snaps of prolonged man coverage than most other defenses. This offseason, they snagged Pierre in free agency after he made some strong spot starts with the Steelers. Pierre had only 219 coverage snaps last season, but his passer rating allowed of 49.8 was second only to Jamel Dean among cornerbacks last season. (Dean, ironically, is who the Steelers signed in free agency). It’s worth noting that Fabian Moreau was third in passer rating allowed at 50.5 in Flores’ defense. But the Vikings still elected to cycle Moreau out for Pierre, who was coached by Flores and passing game coordinator Gerald Alexander during their time in Pittsburgh. That’s a clear sign they trust him more — and might ask for more man coverage accordingly. NFC SOUTH Atlanta FalconsBrandon Dorlus, DLThe lightbulb is coming on for Dorlus, and I’m loving it. He had 8.5 sacks last season, seven of which came in the back half. A true tweener out of college, Dorlus spent most of his time with Oregon on the edge but has bulked up to play on the interior over two years in Atlanta. That process takes time, especially when an entire rookie season is lost to an abdomen injury. A lot of Dorlus’ sack production was in cleanup after edge rushers forced the quarterback to climb, but he still used his length and flexibility well to shed blocks late and make tackles away from his frame. He is especially effective as a looper or crasher in blitz packages, with a great knack for becoming skinny as he works through the line of scrimmage. Dorlus is still more tweener than he is versatile, but 2025 was a clear realization of the vision we never got to see in 2024. Continuity in coordinator Jeff Ulbrich’s defense will be big for his continued growth. Carolina PanthersNic Scourton, EdgeThe best pass rusher on the Panthers last season was Scourton, a 21-year-old rookie. Of course, being the Panthers’ best pass rusher wasn’t much to write home about. Scourton’s pressure rate was 9.2%, well below the league average for starting edge rushers (12.6%). But he was always considered more of a developmental pick, given his youth and long transition out of the Texas A&M defense and into more of an attacking role with the pros. Now that Scourton will play opposite Jaelan Phillips, he should get easier assignments. He’s also more likely to get cleanup opportunities given Phillips’ style as a pocket-pushing bull rusher. Scourton doesn’t seem far off from a step forward; there’s plenty of good technique, both against the run and in the rush. New Orleans SaintsQuincy Riley, CBThe Saints struck gold in the middle rounds last season when they found two solid starting defensive backs — Riley and third-round safety Jonas Sanker — to fill out a defense desperate for talent. Riley was the third cornerback on the field behind Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor, but he played outside while Taylor kicked in despite his size (5-foot-11, 195 pounds). Riley has an inarguable nose for the football and great pound-for-pound strength. I’d like to see him experiment with some slot reps following Taylor’s departure in free agency, but he’s more than sufficient as an outside corner in coordinator Brandon Staley’s zone-heavy scheme. Sanker might end up the better breakout player, as he’s first in line to replace Taylor in the slot, so I flipped a coin and landed on Riley. Tampa Bay BuccaneersJalen McMillan, WRI have not been shy about my lofty expectations for second-year wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, who I think can lead the league in receptions with coordinator Zac Robinson now calling the plays. But Egbuka was splitting No. 3 receiver snaps last season with McMillan, who is an impressive receiver in his own right. McMillan, like Egbuka, saw most of his rookie season limited by hamstring issues. And McMillan’s 2025 sophomore season was also almost nonexistent because of a preseason neck injury. If McMillan can stay on the field, he is the best candidate for outside receiver snaps. And he has the large radius and spectacular catch ability that the Bucs need following the departure of Mike Evans. Chris Godwin Jr. won’t fall out of the lineup entirely — he’s too reliable — but McMillan brings enough juice as a run blocker to eat into those snaps, too. NFC WEST Arizona CardinalsWalter Nolen III, DTEvery Nolen snap was like water in an oasis for Cardinals fans last season. He struggled to get on the field (he had a calf injury in training camp) and stay on the field (he was placed on injured reserve because of a knee injury in Week 16). But in the middle of that, for 169 glorious snaps, he wreaked havoc. Nolan had a 14% pressure rate from the interior, second only to the Giants’ Abdul Carter among all rookie defensive linemen. He had five tackles for loss, five QB hits, two sacks and a fumble recovery (for a touchdown) in the span of six games. Splashy, splashy stuff. It’s all about health and stringing together consistent days for Nolen, who very clearly has the tools of a Pro Bowl-caliber defensive tackle. Los Angeles RamsJosaiah Stewart, EdgeLost in all the Myles Garrett/Jared Verse hoopla is a pretty sick rookie season from Stewart. He was a rotational player with only 166 pass-rush snaps, but that’s part of the appeal for Chris Shula’s defense. Stewart is a subpackage player with legitimate drop ability, so Shula likes him on blitzing downs as a Swiss Army knife. And those 166 snaps were flashy. He can bend, pop with power and finish at the quarterback. This is particularly important now that Verse has been swapped for Garrett, who figures to kick inside more often (given his superior size) in subpackage looks. That opens the door for more wide alignments for Stewart, who can carve out a role as a late-game closer. San Francisco 49ersUpton Stout, CBThe 49ers’ defense was young, raw and outmatched for much of last season, so it can be tough to find the diamond in the rough. But that diamond is Stout, a third-rounder who started in the slot — a taxing position to master mentally — and kept his head above water. Stout got burned plenty as a risk taker, but he didn’t make the same mistakes over and over again. He’ll never dominate with pass breakups given his 5-foot-9, 181-pound size, but he has stopping power as a tackler and creates opportunities for his teammates to finish off run plays by penetrating and disrupting. He’ll stick around in the league for a long, long time as he fully gets up to the mental speed of the game. Seattle SeahawksAJ Barner, TEWe somehow made it through the entire Seahawks Super Bowl run without calling Barner what he is: a rising top-10 TE. There are precious few “complete” tight ends right now — players who legitimately move the needle both as blockers and as receivers. And Barner can be both. He’ll never be a high-volume fantasy football darling (52 catches for 519 yards and six TDs in 2025), but he makes big-time catches away from his frame and has plenty of juice to get vertical. As a blocker, he is a featured cog in Seattle’s rushing attack. Barner really is a discount George Kittle, an easy comparison now that Kittle’s old tight ends coach, Brian Fleury, is Barner’s offensive coordinator. If Fleury runs the passing game a little more through Barner this season, he’ll start to get his name mentioned in the upper tier of tight ends … where it belongs. |
