| A schedule update from Mike North of the NFL, by way of Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com. One thing is, there are five games that still do not have an assigned network: If recent history means anything, the NFL’s full, 272-game regular-season schedule will be released during the week of May 11, most likely on Wednesday, May 13. Recent history may not mean much. Via John Breech of CBS Sports, NFL V.P. of broadcast planning Mike North has said that the schedule could be released during the week of May 18. “Most fans know full well that the schedule comes out in mid-May now,” North said in an appearance on the It’s Always Game Day in Buffalo podcast. “That’s what we’ve done the last five or six years. That’s sort of our target. Is there any magic to May 12, 13, 14? No. Is there any real downside to [May] 19, 20 or 21? No.” The NFL has yet to announce a specific date for the announcement of the schedule. “I don’t think it’s coming out in June, but that second week in May has been our target the last few years, but I don’t know that it’s impossible to think about that third week in May,” North said. One factor could be the five-game package that will be carved out and sold separately. YouTube reportedly is the favorite. Netflix and Fox are also in consideration. “These five games that are out there as a package that are being negotiated right now, love to know when, where those games are going to be played so we can schedule them accordingly,” North said. North’s interview happened before the draft. He made it clear that developments during the draft could influence the final schedule. “Maybe something happens in the draft that surprises us, somebody gets traded — a quarterback, a big name — something different at the top of the draft and we need an extra couple of days to adjust and react to it,” North said. Another wildcard is Aaron Rodgers. If he decides to return to the Steelers for another season, Pittsburgh becomes a more attractive candidate for prime-time games. If Rodgers doesn’t return, the Steelers have less sizzle. Ultimately it all comes down to when the Commissioner decides the schedule is ready. North made that point very clear. “It doesn’t get finalized until the Commissioner of the National Football League says it’s finalized,” North said. “That’s why I’m being coy about the date. I don’t know the date. None of us know the date yet because we don’t know when we’re going to walk into the boss’s office and present him one. And he’s going to say, ‘That’s perfect. Ready to go. Send it out to the world.’ . . . “If we walk in there on May 11th or 12th and he’s not happy with where we are, he’ll send us back downstairs and we’ll lock ourselves back in the room and we’ll keep grinding until we find something he likes,” North said. “And if it slides to the 18th, 19th or 20th, the world will keep spinning. I’m sure at some point he’s going to say, ‘All right you morons, I’m not giving you any more time. We got to go.’ I hope it doesn’t get to that point.” The schedule has plenty of moving parts. To date, only two games have been set: 49ers at Rams in Australia on Thursday, September 10, and Ravens at Cowboys in Brazil on Sunday, September 27. It’s hard to imagine the schedule coming out any later than the third week in May. The fourth week in May ends with Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start of summer. Whenever the schedule is released, the fans want to know so that they can make plans as to the games they’ll attend. And the networks want to be able to fully market their individual schedules to advertisers, especially with the traditional network upfront presentations happening during the week of May 11. |
| AFC WEST |
| DENVERThoughts on the Broncos from one of Mike Sando’s panel of secret execs: “They gotta feel like they are a quarterback injury away from being in the Super Bowl,” an exec said. Should Denver feel that way? “The AFC was pretty down, including Kansas City,” the exec said. “Denver barely beat Buffalo; I think Buffalo’s window has closed. New England will regress. I’d never bet against (Patrick) Mahomes and Andy Reid playing their best when it matters.” Denver went 5-1 in the AFC West last season. “When we played them, I thought they were a really well-coached team, but I did not feel they were overly talented on the offensive side,” another exec said. Waddle changes that. “Very smart move,” a third exec said. Execs said they would rather have a highly paid Waddle than take their chances in this draft, given the situation. |
| KANSAS CITYAndy Reid with an optimistic report on the rehab of QB PATRICK MAHOMES. Nate Taylor of ESPN.com: Less than a month before the Kansas City Chiefs hold their first voluntary offseason practice, coach Andy Reid said Saturday quarterback Patrick Mahomes is on track to participate alongside his teammates, even if it’s in a limited capacity. Mahomes is continuing to progress well in his rehab after he had surgery in December to repair a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee, according to Reid. The Chiefs are scheduled to have their first three OTAs May 26-28. “He is in a good position to be able to do some things,” Reid said of Mahomes. “If he can do some things, [he’ll do it]. Phase 2 [of the offseason program], remember, there’s no contact and there’s no offense versus defense. It’s Phase 3 that you get into that. … He’s in a position where he can do everything, I think.” Mahomes has spent most days since his procedure inside the Chiefs’ training facility as part of his rehab, often working with Julie Frymyer, the athletic trainer who has helped him recover from previous injuries throughout his nine-year career. In late March, Mahomes posted a four-second clip on his Instagram account to showcase himself throwing the ball again inside a training gym. The video showed Mahomes executing a five-step dropback at a moderate tempo before throwing the ball, which appeared to be an intermediate pass. Since then, Mahomes has continued to increase his workout sessions. “I know he’s doing a lot of stuff right now,” Reid said of Mahomes. “He is throwing the ball. He does it on his own.” |
| AFC NORTH |
| CINCINNATIMike Sando of The Athletic has an exec who likes the acquisition of DT DEXTER LAWRENCE: “Dexter Lawrence would be a top-five pick in this draft even at his age,” a third exec said. “There is no one like him in this draft. He can change their defense, coupled with what they did in free agency.” |
| CLEVELANDWhatever else, QB SHADEUR SANDERS is a college grad. Anthony Gharib of ESPN.com: Last year, Shedeur Sanders saw his NFL dream come true. Now, he’s realizing another major life accomplishment: graduating from college. The Cleveland Browns quarterback took the stage at Colorado on Saturday, graduating with a sociology degree. Sanders posted a video of himself with other students as they prepared to receive their diplomas. “What’s up? We at graduation,” he said. “It’s called excellence, man. It’s excellence.” Sanders also re-created an iconic image of his father, Deion, who laid out his uniform in the locker room before Super Bowl XXIX. This time, Shedeur laid out his cap and gown. He spent two seasons at Jackson State, then another two with the Buffaloes before declaring for the draft in 2025. Colorado retired his number in April 2025. The Browns selected him with the 144th pick and he appeared in eight games, throwing for 1,400 yards, seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. It’s been a busy offseason for Shedeur. In March, he changed his number back from No. 12 to No. 2, the number he wore throughout his career until Cleveland. We’re not sure that changing your number is the definition of a “busy offseason”. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| HOUSTONHas QB C.J. STROUD done enough to warrant a big money extension? DJ Bien-Amie of ESPN.com gets some opinions: – C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. didn’t just arrive in Houston — they reshaped the franchise overnight. After selecting Stroud second overall in 2023, the Texans made an aggressive gamble to trade up to No. 3 to land Anderson, doubling down on a bold, franchise-altering vision. Three years later, Houston sat at a crossroads — with both entering the offseason extension-eligible. After a historic rookie season, it seemed like Stroud was set to reset the quarterback market, but instead, it’s Anderson who defined the market for defensive ends, agreeing to a three-year, $150 million deal — making him the highest-paid non-QB in NFL history. That left Stroud at the center of one of the biggest questions in the NFL: Should the Texans pay him? ESPN polled league executives and others around the NFL about what they would do if they were in Houston’s shoes, and the responses ranged from “They gotta pay him” to “Wait.” Years 2 and 3 didn’t replicate similar production for Stroud, with his latest playoff performances leaving much to be desired after seven turnovers in two games. As of late April, Houston and Stroud had yet to engage in serious extension talks, according to league sources. So which way is Houston leaning? Coach DeMeco Ryans isn’t tipping his hand. Despite buzz around the annual league meetings in March about what the Texans should do, Houston’s coach kept a firm poker face in Phoenix — declining to offer any insight into Stroud’s contract. Ryans said he doesn’t “discuss contracts publicly.” But league executives feel like paying him is inevitable because life with a talented quarterback is always better than being in quarterback purgatory. “I think he’s plenty talented. I just think just running a more efficient offense would justify the payday,” an AFC executive told ESPN. “I think everyone [I talk to] feels like you gotta pay him. Low bar for the position. “It also could save you money if you extend him [now], because the market always goes up.” THE CONSENSUS SURROUNDING Stroud is that he is a talented quarterback. He threw for 4,108 yards in 2023 (third most by a rookie in NFL history) and 23 touchdowns — to five interceptions — and finished ninth in MVP voting. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and to the Pro Bowl. In his three years, Stroud has compiled 28 regular-season wins (seventh most during that span), a 54.9 QBR (20th), 10,876 passing yards (ninth), 25 interceptions (12th fewest among quarterbacks with at least 30 starts) and 62 touchdown passes (tied for 14th). And in the playoffs, he has three wins (tied for fourth), 1,438 passing yards (fourth) and six touchdown passes (eighth). So it’s fair based on Stroud’s accomplishments that he deserved an extension, but at what price? “Offer him something like top 8-12 [QB] money,” an NFC executive said. “I’d try to give him a three-year extension at like $42-45 million per year now. Or plan to franchise him out like [Dallas Cowboys QB] Dak Prescott in 2020.” The eighth-highest annual salary for a quarterback belongs to the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts ($51 million) and the 12th belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes ($45 million). The NFC executive believes Stroud and his management team — led by agent David Mulugheta of Athletes First — would reject the 8-12 deal. The executive said he would be willing to increase the offer to strike a deal, and if that failed, just prepare to use the franchise tag if needed in 2028. Texans owner Cal McNair would love to have his cornerstone pieces like Stroud and Anderson in Houston for the foreseeable future. But he won’t meddle in the football discussion, he’ll just sign the checks. “We’ll let DeMeco and [general manager Nick Caserio] make the football decisions there, but they’re exciting, really good young players,” McNair said at the annual league meetings. “We’ll hope to have them around for a long, long time.” STROUD HAS PLAYED well in playoff openers, but last January was different. He struggled with ball security in both of the Texans’ playoff games, and in the divisional round loss to the New England Patriots, things were so alarming (four interceptions) that Ryans was asked postgame about whether he considered benching Stroud. Ryans said he hadn’t, despite Davis Mills going 3-0 in Stroud’s concussion-related absence earlier this season. The questions haven’t stopped. Caserio was asked during the combine in late February about the possibility of trading his quarterback, but he scoffed at the notion, calling it “moronic.” “We are not trading the guy. He’s our quarterback,” Caserio said. “He’s going to be playing quarterback for the Houston Texans in 2026.” The Texans picked up the fifth-year options for Stroud and Anderson on April 8, with Caserio calling the decision a “no-brainer.” “I’m so excited to have him around here in the spring,” Caserio said, “and I’m excited to keep moving forward.” But how far into the future that will be remains the question. Despite knowing that Stroud is a “playoff quarterback” that can win you games, a second AFC executive thinks Houston should wait on extending him. “It hasn’t been perfect,” the second AFC executive told ESPN. “That defense has carried a lot, $25 million isn’t crazy for the [fifth-year] option, so you keep your leverage, get another year of info on durability, production, mental toughness, all of it.” Outside of the playoff struggles, Stroud is coming off a season where he threw for 3,041 yards (19th) and 19 touchdowns (22nd), and he had eight interceptions and a QBR of 61.7 (11th) in 14 games. Houston went 9-4 in games Stroud started and finished.– – –“They should do whatever they can to avoid ending up looking like Minnesota,” the same NFC executive said. ANOTHER AFC EXECUTIVE believes Stroud has to prove he can carry a team before receiving the extension because of how it will impact the Texans’ roster financially. “This is about whether you’re convinced he’s a long-term top-tier QB worth 22% of the cap,” the third AFC executive told ESPN. “The smart play is to pick up the fifth-year option, invest heavily in the offensive line and stabilize the run game so you’re evaluating him in a clean structure.” When a quarterback deal takes up over 15% of the salary cap, it has produced mixed results. In 2025, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford took up 22.6% of the team’s cap space, the highest in the NFL, as L.A. went 12-5 and reached the NFC Championship Game. But former Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa took up 19.1% of their teams’ cap space, tied for the second most in 2025. An NFC exec pointed to Tagovailoa, who signed a four-year, $212.4 million extension ($167M guaranteed) in 2024, as a cautionary tale and why Houston should wait. “It’s hard to say ‘pay him’ after how the year ended,” another NFC executive said. “They don’t have to. They have another year to do it. “They might end up paying more because the numbers will go up. But you also have another year of information: ‘Is he getting better in the second year in the offense? How is he doing? Is he healthy?’ And maybe it costs you $2, 3, 5 million extra a year, but you’re also not tied to that like what happened with Tua.” The NFC executive added that while waiting could cost you more financially, if Stroud performs up to his capabilities, then there’s no issues. Because if he’s paid and doesn’t produce, “it becomes debilitating for the franchise, and the next thing you know someone else is running the franchise.” And that’s what transpired in Miami. The Dolphins regretted Tagovailoa’s extension immensely, as he ranked second in interceptions (15) in 2025. The Dolphins went 7-10, and he was benched in December. That led to Miami parting ways with general manager Chris Grier midseason and firing coach Mike McDaniel. Now the Dolphins have a new management running the franchise in general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and coach Jeff Hafley. Subsequently, Tagovailoa was released, resulting in an NFL-record $99.2 million dead-cap hit, and signed with the Atlanta Falcons. “[Waiting] lets him bet on himself too, which is what you want from the guy,” the second AFC executive said. “No need to come close to resetting the market prematurely.” Resetting the market is surpassing Prescott’s contract, which has the highest average per year salary at $61.6 million after signing a four-year, $240 million contract in September 2024. Prescott secured $231 million guaranteed, the highest at the time of signing, before Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen eclipsed it with a six-year, $330 million contract extension with $250 million guaranteed in March 2025. One scout doesn’t think an extension is coming, but there’s risk on both sides. “If he goes back to rookie C.J., he’ll get 65 [million per year],” an AFC scout said, “but if he plays like last two years, then what?” |
| JACKSONVILLEMike Sando’s execs with thoughts on the Jaguars draft: Last year, execs shot down Jaguars GM James Gladstone’s contention that No. 1 pick Travis Hunter would revolutionize the sport as a two-way player. This year, they saw more hubris in Gladstone’s statement that the team “nailed” 10 of the 11 picks it set out to make in an exercise conducted one day before the draft (the only miss wasn’t a miss because the team traded away the 11th pick, making the Jaguars 10-for-10). Upon closer inspection, Gladstone probably was not lying. The Jaguars picked so many players that others seemed to rate elsewhere in the draft that it’s quite plausible they landed all the players they set out to land. Is that good? “I did not like what Jacksonville did at all,” one exec said. “Their picks reflect numbers — workouts, pro days, that kind of stuff — more than the film. ‘We are going to be smarter than everybody else.’ It was a traits draft for them.” As another exec pointed out when analyzing San Francisco in our NFC draft review Thursday, at least the 49ers traded back before selecting players other teams seemingly did not value near the Niners’ original slots. San Francisco traded down four times. Jacksonville never traded down and actually traded up for fourth-round edge Wesley Williams and sixth-round receiver Josh Cameron. “The GM’s bravado is outsized for their accomplishments, and the world loves to punish that,” a different exec said. “But it’s paradoxical that it’s the analytics community, which has now rallied around the public consensus board as being right, that is the one that wants to punish him.” Oh, others want to punish him as well. “Jacksonville, they just absolutely have to have (tight end) Nate Boerkircher — like, they freaking gotta have him,” a third exec said. “OK, going with more tight ends is en vogue now. How long will that be the case? What you are seeing is a lot of teams solving yesterday’s problems.” Philly started the Day 2 run on tight ends by taking Eli Stowers at No. 54. The Jaguars took Boerkircher — whom most projected to go in the 100s — at No. 56. Teams drafted four more tight ends over the next 17 slots and 22 total, most in one draft since 2002. The Jaguars were one of five teams to draft two tight ends, along with Baltimore, Cleveland, Miami and Denver. “I thought there was going to be a lot of tight ends drafted as a result of Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan and Ben Johnson schemes,” another exec said. “I really like Boerkircher, and it’s funny how much heat Jacksonville was getting for their draft. “I like that their GM is being kind of arrogant about it. That is more the theater of the whole thing.” |
| AFC EAST |
| BUFFALOMike Sando’s secret execs say Buffalo moved around masterfully to know effect because all of the players in this year’s draft aren’t any good: Execs admired the Bills’ ability to maneuver around the board while making a league-high seven in-draft trades, but reviews were mixed regarding the players Buffalo wound up selecting. “Those picks you gain, whether it’s a third or fourth or something later, they were not going to net you any (good) players in this draft,” one exec said. Time will tell on that front. The team drafted 10 players, tied for third-most in the league, and used its second-rounder to acquire receiver DJ Moore from Chicago. “I do think there’s some element of regime change with (coach) Joe Brady and (GM) Brandon (Beane) wanting to make this his team and put in his stamp on it,” another exec said. “(Having) more picks probably helps do that. But again, this was a weird draft, in that it was terrible at the top and terrible at the bottom.” Was it good anywhere? “There was no sweet spot to accumulate picks,” this exec added. “I do not really begrudge anybody’s strategy in this draft, because I don’t know what you were supposed to do to be effective.” |
| THIS AND THAT |
| WIN TOTAL OVER AND UNDERSThe Rams may be the Super Bowl favorites, but the Ravens, after free agency and the draft, are likely to win the most games with their rookie head coach. Or so say the oddsmakers. ESPN.com: Before the NFL free agency period, there were 11 teams which had opened at 10.5 wins, the highest number on the board at the time. With a fair amount of player movement now behind us — before the draft in late April, of course — the Baltimore Ravens and now hold the top number at 11.5 wins. The Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers are each at 10.5 wins. The Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins, both of whom having moved on from last year’s starting quarterbacks, are tied for the lowest total with 4.5. Which teams will go over or under their wins total? Betting analysts Matt Bowen, Joe Fortenbaugh, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder react to the odds and offer their best bets, and Mike Clay provides his projections for the coming season. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 11.5 wins (-140)Bowen: Landing Trey Hendrickson after backing out of the trade for Maxx Crosby following a failed physical is a win for the Ravens. I’m a big believer in new head coach Jesse Minter, too. And we know Baltimore has the talent (at critical positions) to push for an AFC North title. But the team did lose key players via free agency, and that 11.5 win total is tied for the highest in the league with the Los Angeles Rams. This is still a playoff team, but I’m betting the under here. Clay’s projection: 11.2 wins Carolina Panthers OVER 7.5 wins (+115)Loza: The Panthers put together an improbable ascent in 2025, making the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and improving on a 5-12 record from the prior season. Dan Morgan has used the offseason to further propel the team’s turnaround, adding depth to the offensive line, reuniting Bryce Young with former college teammate John Metchie and significantly upgrading the defense. The boost in talent and reps offers Carolina the opportunity to, at the very least, repeal last year’s eight-win performance, if not flirt with double-digit dubs. Clay’s projection: 7.3 wins Chicago Bears OVER 9.5 wins (+100)Bowen: This feels like a good number for the Bears in Ben Johnson’s second season. Sure, the team can still add more depth and talent at the left tackle spot, and I would expect GM Ryan Poles to target a pass rusher in the draft. But with the club’s current roster, and the coaching in Chicago, we should see even more player development. And that includes another jump for quarterback Caleb Williams. Take the Bears to hit that 10-win mark. Clay’s projection: 9.4 wins Denver Broncos UNDER 9.5 wins (-105)Fortenbaugh: A 14-3 record culminating in a trip to the AFC Championship game would normally be cause for bullish estimates in the build-up to the ensuing campaign. But color me skeptical when it comes to Denver’s 2026 outlook, due to a series of red flags. For starters, Sean Payton’s crew finished the regular season with an 11-2 record in one-score games. If there’s anything we learned from the 2025 Kansas City Chiefs, it’s that one-score performance regression can be a real pain in the cheeks. Additionally, the Broncos were the eighth-healthiest team in the NFL last season (good luck maintaining that pace) and boast a quarterback who, at best, could be considered average, in my opinion (T-14 in QBR). Denver will be more than competent, but I don’t see double-digit wins. Clay’s projection: 10.5 wins Detroit Lions UNDER 10.5 wins (-115)Moody: The Lions enter 2026 with concerns following a disappointing 2025 season that ended without a playoff berth. Injuries once again exposed depth issues in Detroit’s secondary, while interior offensive line woes forced Jared Goff into quicker throws and limited offensive flexibility. Detroit made few upgrades along the offensive line in free agency, and defensive departures only increase the risk of another disappointing season, even with a softer schedule in 2026. Clay’s projection: 11.3 wins Green Bay Packers UNDER 10.5 wins (-125)Solak: The Packers let a ton of talent out of the building this offseason. Not one of Rasheed Walker, Elgton Jenkins, Colby Wooden, Quay Walker, Romeo Doubs, Rashan Gary or Nate Hobbs is an irreplaceable blue-chip player, but those departures add up to thousands of snaps. If Micah Parsons isn’t at full speed by Week 1, this defense is sorely lacking impactful talent, and offensive line shuffling is always reason for concern. In a tough division, I’ll take the under on 10.5 wins. Clay’s projection: 9.2 wins Houston Texans OVER 9.5 wins (-120)Maldonado: The case for the over starts with the floor this roster has built. The defense is legit, finishing the 2025 season with the No. 1 pass rush by pressure, top-tier coverage grades and a secondary that now adds S Reed Blankenship to a group that already included CB Derek Stingley Jr., CB Kamari Lassiter and S Jalen Pitre. That unit alone keeps Houston in games. Even with the offense grading 25th in games with C.J. Stroud under center and the QB missing a few games, the Texans still went 12-5. With Stroud healthy, the offense should at least remain functional with Nico Collins as the clear WR1 and some modest line improvement with OT Braden Smith. The plus-17 turnover margin will likely regress, but so far, Houston still profiles as a 10- or 11-win team in a conference where defensive consistency matters. Clay’s projection: 9.4 wins Minnesota Vikings OVER 8.5 wins (-105)Walder: I’m buying in on the Kyler Murray-era Vikings. It really isn’t this simple, but two years ago the Vikings won 14 games with average quarterback play. A year ago, it was nine with bad quarterback play. Murray is underrated, just a year removed from finishing ninth in QBR, and now he gets to throw to Justin Jefferson. And while the roster isn’t perfect, I’m not going to doubt the coaches on either side of the ball, because both Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores have proven an ability to get more out of their players than most. Clay’s projection: 8.8 wins |
