The Daily Briefing Wednesday, May 1, 2024

THE DAILY BRIEFING

Bill Belichick, with The Commish at his side, tells Pat McAfee he is all in on the banning of the hip-drop tackle.  Khari Thompson of Boston.com:

Bill Belichick sat down with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell for a segment on the Pat McAfee Show.

 

During the appearance, Belichick and Goodell discussed their opinions on the hip-drop style tackle, which NFL teams voted unanimously to ban ahead of the upcoming-season.

 

“I think over the years, the NFL has done a great job of making the game safer for players – the targeting, the horse-collar tackle, the hip-drop,” Belichick said. “There really aren’t very many of them. I think there were maybe only a dozen or so of them last year, but it’s a good thing to get rid of.”

 

Goodell said he agreed with Belichick’s take, noting the amount of serious injuries that occur on hip drop tackles.

 

“We use data a lot to try to identify the rules that we want to change and whether what we do is effective,” Goodell said. “When you see a play that has more than 20 times the injury rate, and as you know most of those injuries are pretty severe – career-ending or season-ending, you’ve got to make a change. As you know, coach, players adjust and I think we’ve been able to make our game safer and more exciting at the same time.”

 

Some Patriots players, including offensive lineman David Andrews and safety Jabrill Peppers, have expressed concern about banning hip drop tackles in the past.

 

“It’s the defense’s job to tackle guys, and I don’t think people are doing that with malicious intent,” Andrews said last December. “Eventually, you keep taking away certain plays, taking away certain plays, taking away this, taking away that, what’s going to be left of the game?”

 

“Look, it’s an unfortunate reality of this game, and no one wants to see that,” Andrews added. “Guys on other teams don’t want to see guys get hurt. We don’t want to see guys get hurt. But it’s an unfortunate reality of playing in the NFL — playing football at any level.”

 

Peppers called the NFL “soft” and said he had questions about how the rule would be officiated.

 

“I don’t understand how the players have no say in any of these rule changes,” he wrote in a social media post last month. “While they’re at it, they need to change the name of whatever [we’re] playing cause this isn’t football anymore.”

 

Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson was injured on a hip-drop tackle against the Chargers last season. He missed the final five games of New England’s season after playing the first twelve.

 

While such tackles occur less frequently than others, that particular one cost the Patriots their starting running back for an extended period of time.

 

“There’s really no place for it and it’s good to continue to keep the game safe for the players,” Belichick said.

– – –

We’re not sure why the NFL (on behalf of a team that no longer plays in Houston and barely uses the color anyway) thinks it can control a shade of light blue in college sports.  But it does, and it is going to be defied.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The University of Houston has taken a page from the late Bud Adams’s playbook. Specifically, the school has given a double-barreled-middle-finger to the NFL and the Tennessee Titans.

 

After abandoning an alternate Columbia Blue color scheme at the direction of the league last year, the University of Houston has reversed course.

 

“We’re doing it,” athletic director Chris Pezman told Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle. “We’ve reviewed everything and come to the conclusion that we are going to proceed.”

 

Houston has informed the league of its position. As of Tuesday, the NFL had not responded.

 

“We’re giving them two or three weeks to respond,” Pezman said. “We’re waiting on a response to see if we get one.”

 

Pezman explained the about-face on standing down.

 

“We literally have a story we can show the city uses it,” Pezman said. “This isn’t a reach. This is a layup. We’ve got a very defensible position.”

 

It’s hard to imagine anyone having intellectual property rights to a color. And it surely helps the University of Houston that the Texans recently introduced an alternate uniform that uses the color.

 

Even if a plausible argument can be made, Big Shield will look like the big, bad wolf if it sues the University of Houston.

NFC NORTH
 

GREEN BAY

Does WR DAVANTE ADAMS regret running away from QB JORDAN LOVE and into the arms of QB DEREK CARR who subsequently in turn deserted Adams?  Well, it sounds like, maybe just a little.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

 

When wide receiver Davante Adams made the move from the Packers to the Raiders, he was leaving behind a partnership with Aaron Rodgers but excited about the chance to play with college teammate Derek Carr.

 

Any hopes that the duo would light things up faded quickly, however. The Raiders went 6-11 as Carr got benched and then cut after the 2022 season and 2023 saw a head coaching change on the way to another losing season. Speculation that Adams could be traded again has lingered over the Raiders because of how things have played out, but things have been brighter with his former team.

 

Rodgers’ departure opened the door for Jordan Love as the starting quarterback and Green Bay advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs after Love’s strong finish to his first year running the offense. During an appearance on The Rush podcast with Raiders teammate Maxx Crosby, Adams said he “hadn’t seen enough” of Love to know what the future held when he left Green Bay but that he’s been watching and he’s been impressed by what he’s seen.

 

“In hindsight, like we talked about, the kid is a fucking baller, man. I’m so happy for him,” Adams said. “I haven’t had the chance to truly sit down and talk with him, but I want to tell him at some point ‘I definitely don’t regret changing, but I’m super proud of what you’ve done. If there was a way I could pull you over here and drag you with me that would have been cool too.’ Because, obviously, we saw what he did at the end of the year. I don’t regret what I did, but, at the same time, it’s definitely you look back on it like ‘damn that boy kind of balling right now.’”

 

The Raiders don’t have the same kind of certainty at quarterback as they head into the 2024 season with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell as their options, so Adams will have to hope that their offense is still able to catch fire despite that difference.

 

NFC EAST
 

NEW YORK GIANTS

Ted Ngyuen of The Athletic on why WR MALIK NABERS is a good fit with the Giants:

 Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants

Play style: Big play slot with elite YAC ability. Speedster with some size and strong hands.

 

Scheme: Spread offense that has to evolve into more of a dropback attack.

 

Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka is from the Andy Reid tree but he hasn’t necessarily been able to run the offense he wants because of the lack of talent in New York. At their best in 2022, they found success handing the ball off to Saquon Barkley and sprinkling in run option concepts with Daniel Jones. But Barkley left in free agency and Jones is coming off yet another season-ending injury. The Giants don’t have a choice but to move toward a more pass-centric attack. To that end, adding a receiver was necessary.

 

Sure, they would have liked to move up and drafted Drake Maye, who would have helped the passing game more than a receiver, but the Patriots weren’t going to trade down unless they got a historic offer. Getting Nabers isn’t a bad consolation prize at all. Because of his ability to separate and create after the catch, the natural comparison is Tyreek Hill, whom Kafka coached in Kansas City. I’m not saying Nabers will be as good as Hill, but there are some similarities in style.

 

Of the top three receivers in this draft class, Nabers will need the most development and he’s more scheme-dependent than Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. Nabers will have some trouble against press coverage early in his career and he’ll have to expand his route tree. He needs to be in a system with coaches who can design ways to get the ball in his hands and Kafka and head coach Brian Daboll have shown they can do that. Kafka will draw up creative screens for Nabers and utilize motion to keep defenders from being able to press Nabers too often.

 

Nabers will have a baptism-by-fire experience in New York with tight end Darren Waller mulling retirement and receiver Darius Slayton potentially holding out for a new contract. The target volume and snaps Nabers will see in his first season may not be of the highest quality with Jones throwing him the ball but the reps will be good for his long-term development.

PHILADELPHIA

Bruce Feldman of The Athletic on the outstanding draft of the Eagles:

The Eagles cleaned up. Again. Last year, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith and Sydney Brown all seemed to fall to them. This year, the most talented corner in the draft, Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, was still on the board at No. 22. He’s a very physical player with great change-of-direction skills and instincts. Then Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, a dominant player for a terrific Hawkeyes defense, was still around in the second round at No. 40, where the Eagles traded up to get him. In the past two seasons, the 6-foot, 205-pounder had seven interceptions with three pick sixes, 13 pass breakups and 116 tackles.

 

“This is the best DB in the class,” an NFL defensive backs coach told me a few weeks ago. “He has the rare ability to be a nickel one year, a safety the next and a corner the next. He’ll be a great chess piece. He doesn’t have the linear straight line transitions of what you want in a first-round corner. But you see some Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jevon Holland in there. He can play outside, in the slot, in the deep part of the field. I think whoever gets him will be really happy with him.”

 

DeJean also is a superb punt returner and special-teamer.

 

Philly also bagged Houston Christian pass rusher Jalyx Hunt, a rare athlete who can learn behind some proven edge rushers. This is a 6-4, 252-pound player with 34 1/2 inch arms who can broad jump 10-8. Getting a talent like that late in the third round is a good roll of the dice. Drafting Clemson running back Will Shipley at No. 127 to spell Saquon Barkley is another pick I like. Shipley is smooth and has a lot of juice. He can prove to be a nice asset for Jalen Hurts as a third-down back.

– – –

WR A.J. BROWN gets a huge extension despite a somewhat shaky 2023.  Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com:

Fresh off being the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL history, A.J. Brown wants to make sure the only contracts he signs are with the Philadelphia Eagles. Brown landed his second contract extension in just two years with the franchise, and plans to finish his career in Philadelphia.

 

“I’m not saying that’s the end, but that’s the goal,” Brown said at the NovaCare Complex on Tuesday. “My career took off when I got here. It went to another level, and it feels right. My family’s here. My teammates and their kids, they wanna grow up together.”

 

Brown signed a three-year, $96 million extension last week, keeping him in Philadelphia until the 2029 season — when he turns 32 years old. Brown will make an average annual salary of $32 million during the contract, the highest ever given to a wide receiver in NFL history. The $84 million guaranteed is also the most given to a wideout in league history.

 

Although Brown is setting a new threshold in money earned at the position, he plans to show his value whenever he steps on the field and not focus on the distinction of being the league’s new highest-paid wide receiver.

 

“Nothing,” Brown said when asked what the contract extension means. “I wanna prove it.

 

“Again, it’s a blessing from what I can say. But we don’t play on paper and nobody cares what’s in the bank account when you step in between them lines.”

 

Brown has certainly earned his second extension with the Eagles. He has the top two seasons in receiving yards by a player in Eagles history, also having the most receiving yards in a two-season span by any player to don an Eagles uniform. Brown has 194 catches for 2,952 yards and 18 touchdowns in two seasons with the Eagles, earning second-team All-Pro honors in both seasons.

 

Brown is third in the NFL in receiving yards (2,952) and sixth in touchdown catches (18). Amongst players with at least 300 targets in that stretch, Brown is first in yards per catch with 15.2.

 

Brown is going to be in Philadelphia for at least six more seasons, putting himself in position to break Harold Carmichael’s franchise receiving yards record of 8,978 when this contract expires. That won’t be the end of his reign with the franchise.

 

Philadelphia is where Brown wants to be — and wants to stay — for the rest of his career. When that career is finished, Brown may be one of the greatest to ever put on an Eagles uniform.

 

“This is home. Gonna be some good days and some bad days, but this home,” Brown said. “But I’ve been lovin’ it. This is the best town there is. The support is just through the roof. Away games feel like home games.

 

“Even when I’m away from the game, down in Boca I got fans yelling ‘Go Eagles.’ The support system is unmatched and I’m loving it.”

 

WASHINGTON

Bruce Feldman of The Athletic with some love for the Commanders:

I love what the Commanders did in their draft, starting with taking LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels at No. 2. He blossomed into a terrific passer last season, and that meshed well with his fantastic feet. It’s not fair to compare any young QB to Lamar Jackson, but Daniels’ ability to run away from fast defenders gives Washington a great dimension. He also has some good weapons with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Zach Ertz. Second-round TE Ben Sinnott from Kansas State is a horse who I think was underrated, and new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has a lot to play with.

 

Better still is what Washington did on defense. Illinois DT Johnny Newton was a huge steal at No. 36. He’s twitchy and powerful and has heavy hands. He was often unblockable, piling up 18 sacks and 27.5 TFLs in his career — impressive totals for a defensive tackle. He also blocked four kicks in 2023. Then the Commanders took my favorite player in the draft in Michigan nickelback Mike Sainristil at No. 50. The former slot receiver is undersized, but he’s so quick and instinctive and just makes tons of plays. A terrific blitzer and a terrific tackler, he is a ballhawk who was also a great leader for Michigan, playing a pivotal role in transforming the Wolverines into a national champion.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Five days later, Atlanta’s decision to draft QB MICHAEL PENIX still stuns and perplexes.

If this were baseball, the DB would think it was thought up by the “nerds” that now proliferate and dominate MLB front offices, putting together plans based on obscure stats without thought for the humans that are jerked in and out and up and down the lineup like mannequins.

Dan Wetzel of YahooSports.com has similar thoughts on what the Falcons were and weren’t thinking:

On a spreadsheet somewhere, it probably makes sense.

 

The Atlanta Falcons have spent five days defending and explaining their decision to select quarterback Michael Penix Jr., despite signing quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $100 million guaranteed contract just one month prior.

 

This is about the long term, they have said. This is about their unanimous opinion that Penix is a franchise guy. This is about how if Cousins plays as he’s expected in the next few years, Atlanta will not be in position to draft as high again and so on and so on.

 

Fine, maybe the argument has merit and maybe the plan works perfectly, especially the part of Penix being the next Patrick Mahomes or however the spin goes. In a vacuum, there is a case.

 

The game isn’t played in a vacuum, though. Real life doesn’t exist on a spreadsheet. This isn’t fantasy football.

 

If this is to work out for Atlanta, it requires not just both Cousins and Penix to maximize their physical abilities over the next three and, say, 10 seasons respectively. It requires a whole bunch of people to navigate it mentally and emotionally as well.

 

Can this work? Absolutely. Cousins has displayed great professionalism throughout his career. Penix is a heck of a talent.

 

It’s left the theory stage, though. This is about real life and real human interactions now, and there is no analytic that can predict that.

 

Start with the two quarterbacks.

 

Cousins was blindsided by the decision and undoubtedly wondered what he got himself into in Atlanta. At 35 (soon to be 36), he wanted a final crack at success.

 

The Falcons won just seven games last season and poor quarterback play was a significant reason. With the talent on hand and a high pick to address a weak pass rush (if not additional issues via trading down in the draft), Atlanta with Cousins under center looked like an all-in favorite to win the NFC South.

 

Atlanta has pointed most often to how Green Bay has twice deftly maintained success by using first-round picks to draft its next franchise quarterback — taking Aaron Rodgers to sit behind Brett Favre for three seasons and then Jordan Love to do the same behind Rodgers.

 

There’s a difference. Favre and Rodgers were longtime stars in Green Bay who had deep relationships with teammates, coaches and the front office. Even then, Rodgers balked significantly at the decision to look to the future rather than bolster the present.

 

Cousins has no such relationships, no such status with the other players or the fans. He’s certainly a respected veteran, a good quarterback who put together some good seasons in Washington and Minnesota.

 

He’s still the new guy, lacking stature experience internally and arriving at the same time as his designated replacement.

 

Whereas in Green Bay there was never a doubt who the starter was when the heir apparent arrived — Favre was a three-time MVP when the Packers drafted Rodgers; Rodgers a two-time winner on his way to two more, consecutively — that’s not the case now in Atlanta.

 

Falcons new head coach Raheem Morris may have the mandate to play Cousins, but Penix is a competitor. He isn’t a 21-year-old Jordan Love, arriving via the 25th pick from Utah State. He’s a soon to be 24-year-old with six years of college experience who started 45 games and overcame two ACL injuries to lead Washington to the national title game just a few months ago.

 

Penix is about as experienced as a rookie quarterback can be. He no doubt wants to play. Atlanta did him no favors by drafting him eighth and declaring he should sit for 2-5 years. Guys who are that good don’t ever want that.

 

Can he adjust? It’s one thing to say Penix will just sit patiently for years to come, but will he accept that?

 

And what if he proves that shouldn’t be the case? What if he shows out in the preseason or if Cousins gets injured and he jumps in for a half or even a game? How do fans and media react to that? Are the Falcons willing to eat a $100 million mistake?

 

This is a quarterback controversy from the jump. The gap between Cousins and Penix — if there is one — is far smaller than the one between Rodgers and Love was. Which puts enormous pressure on Morris, who will have to manage not just a team, but egos, attitudes and expectations as well.

 

A plan on paper is just a plan on paper. Real life will determine whether this actually works or not.

Did Arthur Blank actually approve this scheme or was he blind-sided when Terry Fontenot handed in the card?

Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com with a report on the scheme that he clearly labels as coming from behind the scenes Falcons sources:

Three days after the shocking draft pick crashed into other NFL franchise war rooms like a wrecking ball coming through an adjacent wall, the Atlanta Falcons’ rationale for selecting Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall has been cemented.

 

The question now is what it means for the remainder of Kirk Cousins’ career.

 

Publicly and privately, the Falcons’ messaging surrounding their selection of Penix less than two months after signing Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal are some version of this: Penix has a rare talent that Atlanta believes it will need sooner or later, so the franchise took him while it still had the chance. And the most important part of that decision: Team owner Arthur Blank signed off on it. This is what multiple sources with knowledge of the decision told Yahoo Sports, including those aligned with the Falcons, Penix and Cousins, whose career has now seemingly been locked into a countdown in Atlanta.

 

Gone is the notion that Blank was somehow in the dark when it came to the Falcons’ plans to target Penix, which became a point of vague speculation after general manager Terry Fontenot was captured on Atlanta’s war room video feed having an animated discussion with the club owner following the pick.

 

In the midst of the moment, it looked like Fontenot might be explaining the stunning selection to Blank, particularly to the outside world and some other NFL teams that never saw the pick coming. That attitude was best encapsulated by one personnel source who texted a six-word question during the draft.

 

“Is Terry trying to get fired?”

 

No, Fontenot wasn’t trying to get fired. And no, Blank wasn’t in the dark.

 

What that feed of Fontenot’s animated post-pick conversation with Blank failed to show was what happened in Atlanta’s war room moments earlier. Specifically, Blank sitting with Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris as they called Penix to congratulate him on the selection, and Blank taking the phone at one point and telling the quarterback, “We’re excited you’ll be a Falcon and look forward to the continued success of your incredible career. … We appreciate you.”

 

By the time the pick was announced and jaws had dropped across the NFL, Blank was already shaking hands in the war room. The unfolding scene, at the very least, spoke volumes about Cousins’ standing. Despite a contract that will dole out $100 million in guaranteed money through the 2025 season, his standing as the team’s starting quarterback will be under constant review from this point forward. Much like the standing of Penix as the team’s backup.

 

In short, the money has been paid to Cousins and the draft pick has been invested on Penix. The sunken cost is established and irreversible. Now it’s up to Cousins to keep the debate to a minimum. Much like it was with Drew Brees when the then-San Diego Chargers acquired rookie Philip Rivers in the 2004 NFL Draft. Much like it was for Alex Smith when the Kansas City Chiefs traded up and selected Patrick Mahomes in 2017. And much like it was when Brett Favre was earmarked for replacement by first-round pick Aaron Rodgers … and then Rodgers was earmarked for replacement by first-round pick Jordan Love. In each of those scenarios, the younger draft pick eventually won out. Rivers took over for Brees after two years. Mahomes succeeded Smith after one season. Rodgers took over for Favre after three seasons and then Love took the reins from Rodgers in the same time span.

 

So the playbook for this move has been written. The only significant difference for Atlanta is Penix will be a 24-year-old rookie this season and Cousins was just given a dump truck of money in free agency. But the Falcons have their reasons. And they’re using plenty of channels to make them known.

 

Let’s go ahead and set the table for how this pick happened before we get into the fight Cousins has in front of him. What follows is the rationale the Falcons are selling behind the scenes to justify selecting Penix and overlapping him with Cousins. You can choose to believe all of it or none of it. This is the story emanating from inside the franchise, and the Falcons are going to stick to it:

 

* Aside from his tape over the past two seasons at Washington, Penix’s workouts in the draft process left a deep and resolute impression inside the organization about what the decision makers viewed as rare arm talent. First during his pro day on March 28 — which took place in front of assistant general manager Kyle Smith — and again on April 5, when the Falcons sent a flotilla of key personnel to a private workout with the quarterback in Seattle. That group included Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris. Morris manned the linebacker position for some of the drills, and after drafting Penix raved about hearing the velocity of the ball as it went over his head.

 

* Following that experience, a clear consensus was established between the coaching staff and personnel department that Penix qualified as an elite player on their draft board. In their quarterback stack, their pecking order settled into USC’s Caleb Williams at No. 1, then Penix, then LSU’s Jayden Daniels. Overall, Penix was rated among the Falcons’ top four prospects, with Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. rounding out the group. Such a lofty evaluation made it virtually impossible for the Falcons to trade back with any confidence that another team wouldn’t select Penix in the top 10.

 

* With his grade established, the franchise decision makers stepped back and looked at the more expansive quarterback window. What they found was a path fraught with potential pitfalls. The 2025 quarterback class currently does not appear to have the quality or depth of the 2024 class, and as it stands, not a single player is perceived by the Falcons to have the talent Penix brings to the table. Furthermore, if the team achieves its expected level of success with Cousins over the next two seasons, its draft positioning will be weakened and present a more difficult angle to finding his successor in the 2025 or 2026 drafts.

 

* Blank was on board with the pick in a significant way. Following the pick, the knee-jerk question became, “How could Blank agree to commit that much money to Cousins and then sign up for spending a significant draft asset and another $5.5 million per season on the backup?” The answer, from a handful of sources: After watching Fontenot and the previous coaching staff juggle a failed attempt to develop third-round pick Desmond Ridder into a franchise player, Blank was motivated to overlap a late-career Cousins with a “special” player waiting in the wings.

 

* Especially if that player wouldn’t be easy to acquire in future years. It was not lost on Blank that the Chiefs made a similar move in 2017 when they executed a surprise trade up the board for Mahomes when nobody was expecting it, then sat him behind a steady veteran starter in Smith. And the additional money invested at the backup quarterback spot? Blank just paid backup Taylor Heinicke nearly $7.3 million last season, which is roughly the going rate for the NFL’s “best” No. 2 quarterbacks. And there’s a silver-lining in this instance, with the Falcons double-dipping at backup with a player they plan to groom as the future starter.

 

When taken in the context of the prior success of Rivers, Mahomes, Rodgers and Love, it’s not hard to see how a club owner, general manager and head coach could align behind a similar plan. Even if the plan surrounds an older rookie quarterback who had some uneven grades across the NFL, and comes in the face of those who insist the franchise should be in a “win now” mindset — spending top draft picks on the championship task at hand, rather than squirreling away a quarterback of the future.

 

The Chiefs heard those complaints when they took Mahomes. The Packers heard them, too, when they selected Rodgers and Love. Neither franchise cared what the outside world thought of their plans. And both have had the good fortune of coming out of the other side of the investment with a starting quarterback in the positive side of the ledger.

 

That’s what Cousins is working against in Atlanta. The history of “upside” in these gambles. Not to mention the reality that he doesn’t have a track record inside the team. Unlike Alex Smith and Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, there are no entrenched locker room soldiers behind him, providing support from their years of playing together.

 

Instead, Cousins is entering what is effectively a mercenary contract. He’s a two-year option that will be propped up by his paycheck in the interim and then his level of play in the long term. His best weapon? Success. The longer he wins the way Drew Brees won with the Chargers, the longer Penix will sit on the bench like Rivers. And the more accolades he achieves late in his career like Rodgers (think: big statistics, All-Pro votes and maybe even an MVP candidacy), the less intense the conversation will become to move him out of the way.

 

None of it will be easy. But all of it will be necessary. Cousins turns 36 this summer and is already paid. As far as the fan base will be concerned, that’s really all he’s owed. The rest will have to be earned. Again. And if Cousins didn’t understand that two weeks ago, all he needed to do was to hear his new team owner, Arthur Blank, express his appreciation and hopes of continued success for the guy who is planning to replace him.

NFC WEST
 

LOS ANGELES RAMS

They weren’t good enough to play in the CFP Playoffs, but Seminoles JARED VERSE and BRADEN FISKE will be teammates again with the Rams – and Ted Ngyuen of The Athletic likes the continuation of that tandem.

Jared Verse & Braden Fiske, DL, Los Angeles Rams

Verse playstyle: Edge rusher who wins with speed or power, average bend.

 

Fiske playstyle: Single-gap interior penetrator.

 

Scheme: Odd front, pattern match team.

Losing one of the greatest interior pass rushers ever is tough. No one can replace Aaron Donald. But the Rams have to do something to mitigate the gaping hole left by his absence. Asking one rookie to try to fill his shoes is an impossible task, so the Rams are asking two Seminoles to try.

 

Verse and Fiske played on the same defensive line for Florida State. The Rams had plans to bring the synergy between them to LA. After drafting Verse in the first round, they spent Day 2 working the phones to trade up in the second round to get Fiske. In Dane Brugler’s “The Beast,” he compared Verse to Dante Fowler, who had a career year playing in the Rams’ system in 2019. The Rams use odd fronts with two stand-up edge rushers and Verse has experience rushing standing up or with his hand in the ground. Verse fits what they typically look for in an edge linebacker more than incumbent starter Michael Hoecht, who is a converted nose tackle. Verse has some experience dropping back, which he’ll be asked to do.

 

How FSU teammates Jared Verse, Braden Fiske ended up together with Rams

 

Fiske has one of the quickest get-offs in the draft. He was one of the best testers at the combine and that athleticism pops off the film. Fiske is an explosive, violent and unrelenting defender but he’s undersized at 292 pounds and has short arms. In the Rams’ odd fronts, he can kick out and line up at four-technique (head up on tackles) so he doesn’t have to hold his ground in the A and B gaps too often.

 

It’ll remain to be seen how Fiske will hold up against the run, but the Rams hope the pair will be able to contribute to their pass rush immediately. Verse and Fiske were a nightmare to handle running their defensive line games (stunts) for Florida State.

 

“We don’t say ‘games‘ to each other anymore,” Verse said. “We just kind of look at each other, ‘Oh, you want to run this? I got you.’ … We talked about it, ‘Imagine if we go to the same team? That would be so cool.’ And now it happened!”

 

Defensive line games or stunts are line movements in which one player spikes in one direction to draw attention while the other loops around. Based on Verse’s comments, it seemed like the Florida State coaching staff gave Verse and Fiske the freedom to call their own line games. They may not have that sort of autonomy in the NFL but the Rams hope the chemistry between the two will be a feature of their defense for years to come.

 

Again, it’s impossible to replace the impact of Donald but I like the interesting way the Rams invested their first two picks in their pass rush.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

Republicans in the Kansas Senate want to try to lure the Chiefs across the border, but their first run at passing a bond bill has been tabled.  The AP:

– Some Kansas lawmakers see a chance to lure Kansas City’s two biggest professional sports teams across the Missouri border, but an effort to help the Super Bowl champion Chiefs and the Royals finance new stadiums in the state fizzled over concerns about how it might look to taxpayers.

 

Members of the Republican-controlled Legislature pushed a bill Tuesday that would have allowed Kansas officials to authorize at least $1 billion in bonds to cover the entire cost of building each new stadium, paying the debt off with tax revenues generated in the area over 30 years. But GOP leaders didn’t bring it up for a vote before lawmakers adjourned their annual session early Wednesday.

 

Some critics derided the plan as corporate welfare. Others were receptive but didn’t want to pass the proposal until the Legislature approved a broad package of tax cuts for their constituents that Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly would sign, which didn’t happen either.

 

Legislators’ work on a plan began in earnest behind the scenes after voters on the Missouri side of the Kansas City metropolitan area refused earlier this month to extend a local sales tax used to keep up the complex housing the Chiefs’ Arrowhead Stadium and the Royals’ Kauffman Stadium for more than 50 years.

 

The bill’s biggest champion, Kansas House Commerce Committee Chair Sean Tarwater, a Kansas City-area Republican, said supporters want to give the two professional sports teams another option should they contemplate leaving Kansas City, which he said would be devastating to both states.

 

“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” Tarwater said. “We need them to stay in the metroplex.”

 

The idea isn’t dead yet.

 

Kelly and her staff signaled Tuesday that she is likely to veto the last tax package lawmakers approved, cutting income, sales and property taxes by a total of almost $1.5 billion over the next three years. Lawmakers expect Kelly to call a special session of the Legislature to try to get lawmakers to pass a tax plan that she will accept — and they could consider the stadium financing proposal then.

 

“We just need a little time on it. We’ll be OK,” said Senate President Ty Masterson, a Wichita Republican. “I mean, we’re serious about trying to incentivize the Chiefs to come our direction.”

 

The proposal would allow the bonds to finance 100% of the construction of each of two new stadiums with at least 30,000 seats. State and local officials would have a year to sign off, and the teams would be on the hook if local tax revenues weren’t enough to pay off the bonds.

 

“It was just a concern of running it before we gave real tax relief to our constituents — kind of that juxtaposed look of what appears to be corporate welfare before you’re getting tax relief to the people,” Masterson said after deciding against having a Senate vote.

 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Bruce Feldman on why the Chargers are so high on T JOE ALT, among others:

Jim Harbaugh’s first draft with the Chargers looks really good. The coach who had the best O-line in college football the past few years got the best offensive lineman in the draft in Notre Dame’s towering Joe Alt. The 6-foot-9, 321-pound Alt, who won’t turn 22 until after his rookie year, is a former tight end. That kind of athleticism shows up. At the NFL combine, he ran a 7.31-second three-cone drill that was the best among all offensive tackle prospects in Indianapolis.

 

“He’s as good as I’ve coached against in a long time,” a college defensive coach told me. “He’s athletic. He’s big. He’s strong. He moves his feet real well. He’s never in a bad position and he’s never on the ground. Some of these guys, you can get them moving. This dude always had his pads square and played with low pad level.”

 

The Chargers then addressed a need at receiver by trading up for Georgia’s Ladd McConkey at No. 34. He’s probably the best route runner in the draft. He’s primarily a slot receiver but is very sudden and fast. He also probably would have put up bigger numbers in college had Georgia not had the great Brock Bowers. The Chargers lost linebackers Eric Kendricks and Kenneth Murray this offseason, so it made sense for Harbaugh to draft Michigan’s Junior Colson, a smart, tough, three-down mike linebacker who can handle running the defense. Notre Dame cornerback Cam Hart is a toolsy player at 6-3, 202 pounds with 33-inch arms and an 11-foot broad jump guy. He represents good value in the fifth round.

 

AFC NORTH
 

CINCINNATI

A CBSSports.com headline says that Bengals WR TEE HIGGINS wants to be paid like a “division rival” but the story from Bryan DeArdo reveals that the receiver plays for a team that is in a different division although it is located only about 100 miles from Cincinnati:

 

Tee Higgins has no interest in resetting the market for receivers, but the Cincinnati Bengals veteran is hoping to be paid his worth. Higgins, who reportedly reaffirmed his desire to be traded last week, was initially looking for a deal that was similar to the three-year, $70 million extension Michael Pittman recently signed with the Indianapolis Colts, according to Cincinnati.com. The Bengals haven’t come close to the $20 million-per-year range for Higgins, per the report.

 

Pittman’s salary is the ninth highest among receivers, according to Over The Cap. Given his production so far, it’s safe to say that Higgins is deserving of a similar deal. The difference, however, is that Pittman is the Colts’ No. 1 receiver, while Higgins plays alongside perennial Pro Bowler Ja’Marr Chase, who like Higgins is in line for a new contract sometime over the next year.

 

It’s clear that the Bengals don’t appear to be willing to pay Higgins his market value beyond 2024, as he is slated to play under the franchise tag that would pay him $21.816 million. While that is very good money for a receiver, the franchise tag offers no financial protection beyond this upcoming season. Higgins surely wants to secure his future with a new deal, which is why he wants to be traded to a team that would want to invest in him for the long haul if the Bengals aren’t willing to do so.

 

There are plenty of teams that would be willing to give up significant capital in order to acquire Higgins, who has played an integral role in Cincinnati’s turnaround over the past three years. But the Bengals have consistently said that they want Higgins back for another championship pursuit in 2024, Higgins’ trade request be dammed.

AFC SOUTH
 

JACKSONVILLE

Ted Ngyuen of The Athletic on the whys of the drafting of WR BRIAN THOMAS by the Jaguars:

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Playstyle: Big X receiver with vertical speed and jump-ball ability.

 

Scheme: Shotgun, spread attack that utilizes RPOs and straight dropbacks more than play action.

 

The Jaguars needed to draft a receiver after losing Calvin Ridley in free agency and Thomas may fit their offense better than Ridley did. As a rookie, Thomas might not be as productive as Ridley, who caught 76 passes for 1,016 yards last season, but he gives the Jaguars a true big-body X receiver who can stretch the field. Ridley was miscast in that role last season. He struggled to get off press coverage on the outside and win consistently on fade routes — two skills that Thomas specialized in at LSU.

 

“He’s a guy that brings a skill set that we haven’t necessarily had … to the level that he brings,” Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke said. “He’s 6-foot-027. He’s 209 pounds. And he runs sub-4.4.”

 

The Jaguars already have Christian Kirk, whom they pay handsomely to win underneath. Ridley is a nifty route runner who needed more snaps in the slot and to be put in motion more. He made some plays at times but it wasn’t his best usage. After losing Ridley, the Jaguars signed Gabe Davis to take the top off defenses but obviously, Thomas offers a much higher ceiling as an outside receiver. As a rookie, he’ll at least be a field stretcher and expand his role as he develops.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

SCHEDULE FALLOUT

When, not if says Mike Florio, the NFL goes to an 18-game schedule, there will be a ripple effect through the entire calendar.

Whatever Roger wants, Rogers gets. And Roger wants 18 games.

 

If/when (when) he gets it, the NFL’s calendar could change.

 

Goodell has dangled the possibility of moving the Super Bowl to President’s Day Weekend, which will help build support for an 18th game. But what if the NFL Players Association insists on a second bye week? That would require the season to start on Labor Day Weekend, in order for it to end the day before President’s Day.

 

The league has avoided Labor Day for years, because the ratings are lower on the last unofficial weekend of summer. Given the way the NFL has grown in recent years, the NFL would probably gobble up Labor Day Weekend in the same way it has devoured Thanksgiving and Christmas.

 

As noted by Mark Maske of the Washington Post, an 18th game also could result in the offseason tentpole events sliding from their current spots, with the Scouting Combine moving to March, free agency shifting to April, and the draft slip-sliding to May.

 

 

The NFL already owns the sports calendar. They would steal even more attention away from other leagues by expanding the offseason like an accordion.

 

However it plays out, 18 games is inevitable. As is, I believe, 19. Eventually, 20.

 

With the revenue that comes from games that count, the NFL will want more of them. That’s why expansion from 32 teams is inevitable, too.

 

More football leads to more money. It’s that simple.

 

More.

 

Please, sir, can I have some more?

 

More is coming, whether they ask nicely or not.

 

BROADCAST NEWS

Some news on the television futures of Jason Kelce and Bill Belichick from Andrew Marchand of The Athletic:

The recently retired Jason Kelce is headed to ESPN to be part of its “Monday Night Football” pregame show, sources briefed on the move told The Athletic.

 

Kelce, who just retired after what is considered a Hall of Fame career with the Philadelphia Eagles, was sought after by multiple networks, but is slated to land on ESPN’s “Monday Night Countdown.”

 

ESPN declined to comment.

 

Kelce and his brother, Travis, have a popular podcast called “New Heights.” Jason, 36, has been interested in media and drew interest from NBC, CBS and Amazon, among others. He and his wife, Kylie, already had a pre-existing relationship with Amazon as they did a documentary series called, “Kelce,” which followed him around during his final season. Amazon Prime Video’s Thursday Night set is already pretty packed. NBC and CBS were both interested in adding Kelce to their Sunday desks.

 

The Disney upfronts are two weeks away and Kelce is likely to be a part of it. ESPN also has picked up Bill Belichick, the other biggest NFL media free agent of this offseason. Belichick will appear weekly on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Mondays during the NFL season. McAfee will pay Belichick to be on his program, which is licensed on ESPN.

 

Meanwhile, a Belichick deal with Peyton Manning’s Omaha Productions is slated to happen that would include Belichick becoming a semi-regular guest on the Manningcast. ESPN’s “Monday Night Countdown” is hosted by Scott Van Pelt and features analysts Marcus Spears and Ryan Clark. The Athletic previously reported that another of the analysts on the program, Robert Griffin III, was unlikely to return.

 

2024 DRAFT RATINGS

Today, let’s see what Dane Brugler of The Athletic thinks:

I don’t use any special formula or analytical metric to come up with the order — I simply go by which team got me the most pumped about their draft hauls. Obviously, teams with multiple early-round picks will show up higher in the rankings than those with fewer selections.

 

Also, future picks or veteran players acquired do not factor into these rankings (even if they’re mentioned in the team breakdowns). Teams are ranked strictly on the prospects drafted and the values of where they were selected.

 

The 2024 draft rankings:

 

1. Chicago Bears

Favorite pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Obviously, teams with multiple early-round picks have a decided advantage for this exercise over those with fewer selections. But the Bears aren’t No. 1 merely because they had two top-10 picks. They’re here because of what they did with those picks — and I went back and forth on my “favorite” between Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze. The answer, though, has to be the quarterback who can be a franchise-changing player for Chicago. I am also a fan of third-round OT Kiran Amegadjie, who has the talent to be Chicago’s left tackle of the future.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Austin Booker, Edge, Kansas

Chicago only had two Day 3 choices, and I’m not going to pick the punter (Tory Taylor). The Bears used a 2025 fourth-round pick to trade back into this draft (at No. 144) and scoop up Booker, who easily could have been drafted on Day 2. Although he isn’t ready for a meaningful role as a rookie, Booker has the promising pass-rush savvy to be a steal when we look back at this selection in two or three years.

 

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

Favorite pick: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington

The Steelers had four picks in the top 100, and all four were home runs. Michigan receiver Roman Wilson is a tough cover because of his speed, and linebacker Payton Wilson will fill up the stat sheet (as long as he stays healthy). It also was difficult not to choose center Zach Frazier here, not only because he was a steal at No. 51, but also because he’s a perfect fit for this team. But I have to go with Fautanu, my ninth-ranked player overall. He will be a Band-Aid for the Pittsburgh offensive line with his ability to play either tackle or guard.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Mason McCormick, G, South Dakota State

Pittsburgh remade its offensive line in this draft class. Although not a slam-dunk starter, McCormick adds immediate depth on the interior and will push for early playing time. All three of the Steelers’ Day 3 selections (McCormick, DL Logan Lee and DB Ryan Watts) were standouts during East-West Shrine Bowl week.

 

3. Detroit Lions

Favorite pick: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

No. 10 on my board, Arnold was my highest-graded defensive player in the entire draft — and the Lions were able to trade up and get him at 24. Aside from the talent he brings to the roster, the fit is what makes this one of my favorite picks. Arnold is one of the most competitive players in the draft class, and he’s ideally wired not just for a cornerback, but especially for a Dan Campbell-coached cornerback.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Christian Mahogany, G, Boston College

The Lions had a fascinating Day 3, including trading a 2025 third-round pick to draft Giovanni Manu, a project left tackle with rare tools. But it was Detroit’s two Round 6 picks that stood out — LSU’s Mekhi Wingo and Mahogany, who both ranked inside my top 100. Some medical questions caused Mahogany to fall, but he is a smash-mouth power blocker with lighter feet than expected. It won’t be a surprise if he is competing for a starting role in 2025.

 

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Favorite pick: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

The Eagles are almost always near the top of my annual draft rankings, and this year is no different. Adding defensive back Cooper DeJean in the second round was tremendous value, but having Mitchell fall in their laps at No. 22 was a steal. An outstanding size/speed athlete, the Toledo product plays with high-level ball skills and composure. On top of landing an impressive class, the Eagles also added third-, fourth- and fifth-round selections in the 2025 draft via trade.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Will Shipley, RB, Clemson

The Eagles cleaned up on Day 3, adding a legacy pick (Jeremiah Trotter Jr.), an impact returner (Ainias Smith) and an oversized receiver (Johnny Wilson). I expect Shipley to make an immediate impact as part of the backfield. Though he runs like a grinder, Shipley has athleticism to make defenders miss — especially in the screen game, which should be more of an emphasis for the Eagles under new play caller Kellen Moore.

 

5. Arizona Cardinals

Favorite pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

The unwritten goal for NFL teams is to come away from each draft with four starters. With 12 selections this year, there is a good chance the Cardinals exceed that number. There is no doubt that the Cardinals considered the other top receivers in this class or trade-down options, but ultimately, they weren’t going to overthink this selection. The No. 2 player on my board, Harrison has a skill set reminiscent of Larry Fitzgerald and will upgrade the Arizona offense immediately.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Xavier Thomas, Edge, Clemson

The Cardinals addressed defensive end in Round 1 (Darius Robinson), but it wouldn’t be a shock if they get more immediate pass-rush production from Thomas. More of a subpackage rusher, he is straight-line explosive with active hands that can affect backfield action.

 

6. Los Angeles Chargers

Favorite pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Honestly, it was something of a three-way tie for my favorite Chargers pick between Alt, Ladd McConkey and Junior Colson. But if I have to choose one, it’s Alt, who was my No. 5 player in the class. With Rashawn Slater and Alt, the Chargers’ tackle situation is now the envy of most teams. McConkey is a quarterback-friendly target for Justin Herbert and Colson is a green-dot linebacker, too — the Chargers crushed their first three picks.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

The Chargers added J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but I expect Vidal to play a meaningful role almost immediately. He might not be a home run-hitter, but he is the type of running back Jim Harbaugh appreciates — someone who gets the singles and doubles and can be trusted to stay on the field in any situation.

 

7. New York Giants

Favorite pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The Giants drafted several of “my guys” in this draft — Nabers, Andru Phillips and Tyrone Tracy Jr. But it all starts with Nabers, who would have been an easy top-five pick in most other drafts. Luckily for the Giants, they were able to nab him at No. 6, giving their offense the truly explosive threat it had been missing.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, Purdue

Devin Singletary and Eric Gray are solid players, but Tracy has an opportunity to make an immediate impact, both on offense and as a return man. The former wide receiver is at his best as a pass catcher, but as long as he has a lane, Tracy can create big plays. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention TE Theo Johnson, as well, whose value could climb if Darren Waller doesn’t return in 2024.

 

8. New England Patriots

Favorite pick: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

The Patriots aren’t accustomed to drafting in the top three, but they picked a good year to do so. My No. 2 quarterback in the class, Maye goes to a situation in which he won’t be pressed into action right away, but all the tools are there for him to develop into a top-10 NFL QB. I didn’t love some of the Patriots’ other picks, but they landed Maye, which boosted their spot in these rankings.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Javon Baker, WR, UCF

Following the Maye selection, the Patriots selected four consecutive offensive players to help their young quarterback (two receivers and two offensive linemen). The second of those receivers was Baker, who isn’t a refined player but is plenty exciting. The Alabama transfer averaged 21.9 yards per reception last year and put several explosive plays on tape, even if multiple inefficiencies in his game need to be ironed out.

 

9. Washington Commanders

Favorite pick: Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan

I think Jayden Daniels quickly will be a dynamic NFL player, but my “favorite” picks by the Commanders were their next two selections: Sainristil and defensive tackle Johnny Newton. Despite being undersized, Sainristil is a smart player — it is no coincidence that he consistently delivered difference-making plays on tape. Another favorite from this class was OT Brandon Coleman. I was ready to defend his high ranking (No. 66) on my board, but the Commanders drafted him at No. 67, and I don’t think they will regret it.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Dominique Hampton, S, Washington

Dan Quinn has a history of tapping into the strengths of oversized safeties, and Hampton could be next. At 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds, Hampton is a premier athlete (4.45-second 40-yard dash) with a versatile background as a cornerback, nickel and on special teams. His lack of difference-making plays stands out, but he can be a solid role player.

 

10. Dallas Cowboys

Favorite pick: Marshawn Kneeland, Edge, Western Michigan

I’m surprised the Cowboys didn’t draft a running back, but I really like most of the eight selections they did make. With picks 29, 56 and 73, respectively, Dallas drafted my No. 27 (Tyler Guyton), No. 32 (Kneeland) and No. 38 (Cooper Beebe) overall prospects. Kneeland is an impressive athlete at 270 pounds and rushes with balance and heavy hands. Pass rusher was an underrated need for the Cowboys entering the draft, and they landed an ascending player with his best football ahead of him.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Caelen Carson, CB, Wake Forest

The Cowboys have one of the NFL’s best starting corner duos in DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs (who is coming off major injury). But depth is a major question mark, so Carson could see meaningful defensive snaps as a rookie. My 102nd-ranked player (drafted at No. 174), he is a solid athlete with high football IQ and inside-outside versatility.

 

11. Las Vegas Raiders

Favorite pick: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

When doing my final mock draft, I didn’t give much thought to the Raiders drafting Bowers at No. 13 — but it makes sense, as Las Vegas wisely stuck to the “best player available” approach. Even though the Raiders have a solid tight end depth chart, Bowers also will spend time as a part-time slot receiver. He should quickly become the No. 2 pass-catching option in this offense, behind Davante Adams.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshire

I think Decamerion Richardson could surprise with his rare length and speed, and Tommy Eichenberg is just a rock-solid linebacker. But I can’t wait to see Laube carve out a role for himself in the Raiders’ offense. Zamir White and Alexander Mattison will chew up most of the carries, but Laube could finish top five on the team in catches in 2024.

 

12. Baltimore Ravens

Favorite pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

In typical Ravens fashion, they waited and allowed a good player to fall into their laps late in Round 1. Although I have my concerns with his play strength and body type, Wiggins is a high-level athlete who has the cover skills to make a quick impact. Marlon Humphrey and Wiggins make for an impressive starting cornerback duo.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State

A player who went about 100 spots later than most expected, Tampa hurt himself during the pre-draft process by turning down the Senior Bowl and then running a 4.58 40 at his pro day. He doesn’t have ideal speed or twitch for man coverage, but his size and ball skills are traits worth developing on the outside.

 

13. Kansas City Chiefs

Favorite pick: Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State

If needed, I’ll go down with the ship on this one. Hicks was viewed as a Day 2 prospect by numerous teams, but he fell through the cracks and landed in a favorable situation with Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Hicks has the intimidation factor of a strong safety and the athletic tools to hold up in coverage. Even if there isn’t a clear path for him to start right away in Kansas City, he will get on the field in some way as a rookie.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Hunter Nourzad, G/C, Penn State

One of the smartest prospects in this class, Nourzad doesn’t have overwhelming athleticism or strength, but he processes everything very quickly and is well-schooled with his technique to gain proper leverage. He has experience at tackle, guard and center and could be a viable starting option at right guard in 2025, if the Chiefs aren’t able to re-sign Trey Smith.

 

14. Indianapolis Colts

Favorite pick: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA

With his medical history, Latu was a complicated prospect to project for all of us on the outside. Just based on ability, though, he was easy to appreciate. Despite having average size, length and strength, Latu has a sixth sense for pass rushing. He has a crafty understanding of how to break down the rhythm of blockers with skilled, well-timed moves, which should translate very well (and quickly) to the NFL game.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Tanor Bortolini, G/C, Wisconsin

A player-team fit I had (at No. 117) in my mock draft, Bortolini checks a lot of boxes for what the Colts and general manager Chris Ballard target. He had an historic combine performance with his athletic testing and offers interior versatility at both guard and center. As early as the 2025 season, Bortolini could be the Colts’ starting right guard or center.

 

15. Minnesota Vikings

Favorite pick: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

The Vikings’ process was a little complicated, and we can break down those decisions another time. But they came out of the first round with two players who should be cornerstone pieces. McCarthy was a tricky prospect to evaluate because you wanted to see more from his tape, but — like I’ve been saying since the summer — the tools and intangibles are worth cultivating. And McCarthy goes to a favorable situation, which will help accelerate his development.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Khyree Jackson, CB, Oregon

Jackson has taken a winding path to this point. If he can build upon the promise he showed on his 2023 tape, though, the Vikings could have a starting-caliber player. He has rare size (6-4, 194), which allows him to match up and take away air space downfield. His discipline must improve, but Jackson has favorable tools.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks

Favorite pick: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

One of my favorite players in this draft class, Murphy is equally disruptive versus the run and when rushing the passer. He can line up across the defensive front and give the Seahawks something a little different than what they had on their line. I also loved Seattle’s Christian Haynes addition, especially outside the top 80.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: DJ James, CB, Auburn

The Seahawks doubled up on Auburn cornerbacks, and it will be interesting to see which one ultimately makes more of an impact. I won’t be surprised if James outplays Nehemiah Pritchett, despite being the later draft pick, because he has quick-reaction skills and the cover confidence required to play a nickel role.

 

17. New York Jets

Favorite pick: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

The Jets know better than most teams how attrition on the offensive line can derail a season. Tyron Smith is still an above-average left tackle, but he is in on a one-year deal and hasn’t played a full season since 2015. Fashanu gives the Jets insurance at left tackle for 2024 and an exciting long-term plan at the position.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Qwan’tez Stiggers, CB, CFL

Stiggers has an astounding backstory, but there’s more to him than just his inspiring journey. He also has the tools to develop into an impactful role player. Stiggers (6-0, 205) has 4.4 speed and was the CFL Rookie of the Year last season with 12 passes defended and five interceptions.

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals

Favorite pick: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

This is a great fit for both sides. Yes, Mims only had eight starts at the college level, so bumps in the road should be expected. But he won’t be rushed onto the field. With his traits and natural ability, Mims could stand out as the best offensive tackle from this class when we look back in three years.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Tanner McLachlan, TE, Arizona

McLachlan wasn’t even the first tight end the Bengals drafted on Day 3, but it won’t be surprising if he is the most impactful. He is a terrific athlete for his size (6-5, 244) and consistently moves the chains without putting the ball on the ground (zero drops in 2023 and an 81.8 first-down/touchdown percentage).

 

19. New Orleans Saints

Favorite pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

Fuaga is considered a right tackle or guard by most teams, but can he play left tackle? There are some questions left to answer, but there is no doubt that the Saints’ offensive line is vastly improved with Fuaga now in the mix. Training camp will determine who plays where, but it is clear the Saints view Fuaga as an offensive tackle with versatility on either side.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina

At No. 150, why not throw a dart on a talented quarterback? Rattler is an average athlete and tends to be too methodical with his process, but he has an NFL arm with the mechanics and poise to handle NFL reps. It will be interesting to track his career, even if he spends most of it on the bench over his first two seasons.

 

20. Buffalo Bills

Favorite pick: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

Josh Allen really hasn’t had a target like this in Buffalo. Coleman’s 40-yard dash won’t wow anyone, but he is a terrific athlete — especially at the catch point, where his basketball background shines. His ability to expand his catch radius and rescue the football is exceptional, and Allen won’t be shy about giving Coleman chances to make plays.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Ray Davis, RB, Kentucky

James Cook will be the starter, but Davis can ascend to RB2 status on the Buffalo depth chart and play a prominent role in 2024. His urgent decision-making, lateral quickness and ability to catch the football perfectly fit what the Bills want to be on offense.

 

21. Green Bay Packers

Favorite pick: Javon Bullard, S, Georgia

The Packers wanted to overhaul their safety position this offseason. They did that by adding Xavier McKinney in free agency and Bullard in the draft. With his ability to rapidly read routes and drive on the football, Bullock can play a nickel role or drop and handle coverage in space. The Georgia coaches raved about his competitive confidence and leadership personality.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Jacob Monk, G/C, Duke

With the future of the Packers’ center position unsettled, I wouldn’t rule out Monk as a possible long-term option. His size and strength are solid, but what separates Monk is his foot quickness and processing skills, which will allow him to compete for reps at both guard and center.

 

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Favorite pick: Graham Barton, G/C, Duke

Though I have mixed feelings about Tampa’s overall haul, the Buccaneers hit a home run with Barton, who should be the immediate starter at left guard. Aside from locking down a starting role, his value will be felt in his versatility, which will help Tampa get its best five linemen on the field — even if injuries happen.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Bucky Irving, RB, Oregon

With his average size and athletic testing, Irving is a trust-the-tape kind of player. He skillfully uses his size and patience to hide behind blockers and pick his way through the heart of the defense. I’m interested to see how the backfield touches will be distributed behind Rachaad White this season.

 

23. Miami Dolphins

Favorite pick: Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee

A team that prides itself on being the fastest in the league added one of the fastest players in the draft. Wright is a track sprinter with 4.38 speed and shows a lot of promise when he has daylight in front of him. His run tempo and patience are works in progress, but he averaged 7.4 yards per carry in 2023 and will be a home-run hitter as a rookie.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Malik Washington, WR, Virginia

One of the best values in the entire draft class. Undersized at 5-9, 191, Washington plays bigger than that because of his adjustment skills and ability to create with the ball in his hands. Only Nabers and Odunze had more catches of 20-plus yards in 2023. He’s another home-run hitter added to the Miami mix.

 

24. Los Angeles Rams

Favorite pick: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

The Rams will get steady production from their Day 2 picks (specifically, Braden Fiske and Blake Corum), but adding Verse is a massive upgrade to their pass rush. His relentless energy stands out and often leads to production, as he uses his heavy hands to wear down blocks and reach the quarterback. As the Rams adjust to a post-Aaron Donald era, adding a presence like Verse is a good start.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Brennan Jackson, DL, Washington State

Although he isn’t a bendy rusher and his stiffness stands out, Jackson is an urgent competitor with a nonstop motor. His physicality, play strength and pursuit to the football really jump off the film and will serve him well.

 

25. San Francisco 49ers

Favorite pick: Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida

This is a fun pairing because of Pearsall’s versatility to play across the formation. With his ball skills and savvy, the former Florida pass catcher will develop quick chemistry with QB Brock Purdy and make an impact in Year 1. I also really liked the pick of Dominick Puni in the third round — he will have a chance to become the long-term future at center.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest

My No. 85 player, Mustapha isn’t a proven playmaker in coverage (which is ultimately why he lasted until the fourth round), but he is an outstanding run defender who won’t make costly mistakes in coverage. He reminds me a lot of Jordan Whitehead and could fight for a spot on defense as the 49ers reshuffle their safety position over the next year or two.

 

26. Tennessee Titans

Favorite pick: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

The Titans haven’t minced words — they believe Latham is their present and future left tackle. Yes, there is some projection involved, considering he was a right tackle in college, but Latham has the talent to play anywhere on the offensive line. His play strength jumps out immediately as something that sets him apart.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Jha’Quan Jackson, WR, Tulane

The Titans have plenty of bodies on the wide receiver depth chart, but I like Jackson’s chances to stand out in camp and gradually earn more playing time. He brings route instincts and outstanding speed to create from the slot, adding value as a returner on special teams.

 

27. Carolina Panthers

Favorite pick: Jonathan Brooks, RB, Texas

No disrespect to Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, but upgrading the run game was clearly a priority for the Panthers on draft weekend. They did that by grabbing the top back in the draft. Expected to be cleared in July from the ACL injury he suffered last season, Brooks should help make life easier on Bryce Young, especially given his pass-catching skills out of the backfield.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

The Panthers returned to Austin in the fourth round to add another promising piece on offense. Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas have been OK options at tight end, but adding an athletic joker like Sanders will give the group another layer. He is a true three-level receiving threat, similar to Gerald Everett.

 

28. Houston Texans

Favorite pick: Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

The Texans didn’t have a draft pick in the top 40, putting them at a disadvantage for these rankings. They did, however, draft two promising players in the second round: Lassiter and Blake Fisher. Although several teams were concerned about his lack of speed, Lassiter’s tape shows a tough, competitive player — and it was clear DeMeco Ryans saw the same thing.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Cade Stover, TE, Ohio State

After their rookie quarterback had a record-setting season, what could the Texans do to help him continue to climb? Adding his college tight end is one idea. Stover might not truly have an A-level trait, but he is well-rounded as an athlete, pass catcher and blocker.

 

29. Jacksonville Jaguars

Favorite pick: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

I was underwhelmed by the Jaguars’ draft haul in Rounds 2-7, but I love what they did in Round 1, trading back and adding a high-ceiling receiver. After the Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley this offseason, they reexamined their options and were able to land Thomas, who has both size and speed. His route running is a work in progress, but that is due more to inexperience than lack of ability or know-how.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Javon Foster, OT, Missouri

Foster was a worthwhile swing to take, even if offensive tackle isn’t a glaring need for this team. The Detroit native needs to continue honing his footwork and technique, but he moves well with the length and play strength to match up in the NFL. Foster can be a valuable swing tackle — and, down the line, maybe more.

 

30. Cleveland Browns

Favorite pick: Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville

With limited draft capital (including zero picks in the top 50), it was going to be tough for the Browns to rank very high on this list. They drafted two risky, yet promising players on Day 2 (Mike Hall Jr. and Zak Zinter), but their third pick was probably my favorite of the bunch. Thrash is a twitchy athlete with natural receiving instincts that serve him well as a three-level threat.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Nathaniel Watson, LB, Mississippi State

The Browns added Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush this offseason, but the future of the mike LB position is a question mark. Watson might be able to fill that role, because of his quick-reaction skills and tackling ability — he racked up 250 total tackles over the last two seasons. That quickness downhill allowed him to make numerous plays at the line or in the backfield.

 

31. Denver Broncos

Favorite pick: Jonah Elliss, Edge, Utah

The Broncos have a glut of pass rushers in their rotation, but Elliss makes the unit even stronger. Although he was a little “out of sight, out of mind” this process after undergoing shoulder surgery in the fall, he is a disruptive presence with upfield explosion and violent hands.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

Although I wasn’t a fan of what the Broncos did in the first round, reuniting Franklin with his college quarterback is smart drafting. Franklin, who has inconsistencies in his game, was overrated by many throughout the process, but there’s a good chance he winds up looking like a steal. He has legit speed before and after the catch and can make an immediate impact as a rookie.

 

32. Atlanta Falcons

Favorite pick: Brandon Dorlus, DL, Oregon

When revisiting this list in a few years, I might be completely wrong about the Falcons. Someone has to finish last, though, and the Michael Penix Jr. pick made it pretty easy. Though I am a fan of Ruke Orhorhoro, Dorlus in the fourth round was my favorite pick of this haul. He throws everything he has at blockers and offers the skill set to line up both inside and outside.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: JD Bertrand, LB, Notre Dame

A player with impeccable intangibles, Bertrand has the football character that endeared him to several teams throughout the process. But he also has on-field skills that suggest he can stick and make an impact. His instincts and quick trigger allow him to close on the football.